North Dakota has released their Bakken and North Dakota production numbers for July.
Bakken production was up 19,456 bpd while all North Dakota production was up 18,134 barrels per day. This means that North Dakota production outside the Bakken fell by 1,322 bpd or a little over 2%.
Bakken wells producing increased by 195 to 8,065. North Dakota wells increased by the same amount to 10,952 so non-Bakken wells were unchanged at 2,860.
The EIA’s Petroleum Supply Monthly has just come out. That report gives production from individual states as well as offshore production.
The below chart is thousand barrels per day with the last data point June 2014.
For February, March and April there is about 60 thousand barrel per day difference between what the EIA and BSEE reports. Eventually the EIA and BSEE will be the same and it will be the EIA data that suffers the greatest revisions. I believe they have the June GOM numbers quite a bit too high here.
The EIA is still tweaking its guess as to what Texas production will be when it finally comes in.
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The EIA has released its Petroleum Supply Monthly with C+C production numbers through May 2014. Of all the EIA data releases this seems to be the most accurate. However in some cases it is only as good as a few EIA employees guesses. And the more state data they have to work with, the better their guess.
The data in this report goes back to 1920 for total US production and to 1981 for individual states and offshore production. However I have chosen to shorten the time frame for my charts in order to better show what has happened recently.
US production was down 36,000 bp/d in May to 8,357,000 barrels per day. US production took off in mid 2011 when Shale production took off and has risen some 3,300,000 since. Of course there was shale production prior to this but it was only keeping US production on a relatively flat plateau.
Everyone is interested in the Bakken so I have combined the two Bakken states. Of course there is production in these two states outside the Bakken but this is the best I could do. Note that when the Bakken has one bad month as they had in December, it takes several months to get back to their prior production level.
North Dakota publishes crude oil production numbers for each county. The problem is these numbers do not include confidential wells. Their totals for all North Dakota do include these wells however. I have figured out a way to estimate, pretty closely I believe, each county’s share of those unreported wells. That is take each county’s percentage of total production, then assume they would have the same percentage of confidential wells. It is not exact but close enough.
The data is published only as a PDF file and cannot be copied and pasted. Therefore I must input the data for each of 18 counties, each month, manually. That is very time consuming and I only had the patience to do 15 months. But that is plenty for what I am trying to show.
All the rest of North Dakota combined produces less than the lowest of the big four.
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The EIA’s Petroleum Supply Monthly has been published with production data for all individual states and offshore areas. All data is Crude + Condensate and in thousand barrels per day with the last data point March 2014.
Since the Bakken occupies part of two states, North Dakota and Montana, I have combined their production in order to get a better idea of what is really happening there. I have drawn a trend line from July 2011 through October 2012. That shows where production might have been if the fast decline rate and bad weather had not caught up with the. Production was 1,050,000 barrels per day in March, still 5,000 barrels per day below the point reached in November.
I wanted to show this chart so we could get a better idea what is really going on in the entire Bakken area. Back in May and June of 2012 production was increasing by an average of 23,500 barrels every month. Now production is increasing by an average of 15,580 barrels per month.
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