Tag: Light Tight Oil

US May Production Plunges 2Mb/d

Ovi 119 Comments

A post by Ovi at peakoilbarrel

All of the oil (C + C) production data for the US states comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply monthly PSM. At the end of the production charts, an analysis of three different EIA monthly reports projecting future production is provided. The charts below are updated to May 2020 for the 10 largest US oil producing states.

May’s production drop is just short of 2 Mb/d by 11 kb/d. Awesome. US oil fields began a slow and steady decline from November 2019 to March 2020. March brought the combination of CV-19 and oil price drop that led to the sharp production plunges in April and May. Since the current EIA data is two months delayed, May is the second month that shows the combined effects of the pandemic and low oil prices. Will June drop below 10,000 kb/d?

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US Oil Decline Accelerates in April

Ovi 147 Comments

A post by Ovi at peakoilbarrel.

All of the oil (C + C) production data for the US states comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply monthly PSM. At the end, an analysis of three different EIA monthly reports is provided. The charts below are updated to April 2020 for the 10 largest US oil producing states.

This US production chart is updated to April and tentatively extended to May and shows the continuous slow decline in oil output from US oil fields from November 2019 to March 2020 and then the sharp acceleration in April and May. Since the current EIA data is two months delayed, April is the first month that shows the combined effects of the pandemic and low oil prices.

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US Oil Output Continues its Steady Decline

Ovi 147 Comments

A post by Ovi at peakoilbarrel

All of the oil (C + C) production data for the US states comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM). At the end, an analysis of three different EIA monthly reports is provided. The charts below are updated to March 2020 for the 10 largest US oil producing states, (Production > or close to 100 kb/d).

Today’s June 1 update shows the continuous slow decline in oil output from US oil fields from November 2019 to March 2020. March output was 12,716 kb/d, down by 28 kb/d from February’s 12,744 kb/d. Also it should be noted that February’s output estimate from the EIA’s earlier May report, 12,833 kb/d, has been revised to 12,744 kb/d, a downward revision of 89 kb/d. The Red dot is the projected April output from the May Monthly Energy Review.

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Permian Basin, Bakken/Three Forks and Eagle Ford Net Volume

D Coyne 115 Comments

In the discussion here I use the term net volume to refer to the volume of prospective rock that might be developed to produce tight oil.  For each bench of a prospective tight oil play (Wolfcamp A would be one example of a bench) there is an area estimate (5733 thousand acres for Wolfcamp A of Delaware) and a success ratio (%) = 94.7, in the case of Wolfcamp A.  Net acres are the total acres times the success ratio, for Wolfcamp A, 5429 thousand net acres.  On average the Wolfcamp A of the Delaware basin is about 400 feet thick, so the net volume would be net acres times thickness or 2172 million acre-feet.  An acre-foot is a volume that is one acre (44,000 square feet) by one foot thick or 44,000 cubic feet (or a box that is 1000 ft long by 44 feet wide by 1 foot high.)

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US Tight Oil Scenario based on BNP Paribas Study

D Coyne 327 Comments

An interesting analysis was recently published by BNP Paribas (one of the top 10 banks in the World by assets) entitled Wells, Wires, and Wheels… . In that analysis they argue that long term oil prices will fall to $20/b or less in order for oil used for personal land transport to compete with EVs powered by wind and solar at current cost levels.
I reworked my oil price assumptions, first with a simple scenario that follows the EIA’s AEO 2018 reference oil price scenario up to $70/b in 2017$ and then remains at that level long term. Second I noticed that a scenario with such an oil price assumption sees tight oil output fall in 2022 so the scenario was revised with oil prices rising from 70 to 80 per barrel from 2022 to 2024 and then remaining at that level until 2028. The BNP Paribus analysis suggests that EVs will have cut significantly into oil demand by 2022 to 2025 so I assume oil prices fall to $20/b over the next 10 years.
Scenarios below.

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