A Guest Post by George Kaplan

EIA Reserves

EIA provides estimates of proved reserves based on information from the E&Ps on form EIA-23 for crude only, and also shows the categories for changes (discoveries, production, revisions etc.). This data with updates for 2016 has been due since November but so far has been twice delayed. BOEM make their own estimates for 2P (i.e. proved and probable) based on strict adherence to SEC/SPE rules (i.e. the reserve must be on production or be expected to be produced within five years). I think this usually comes out in May. In the absence of the latest EIA numbers I’ve presented the 2015 numbers with adjustments for subsequent production. There will be revisions and additional discoveries to include once the actual data is available though I think fairly small, especially for gas, but it will be interesting to see.

Despite excluding probable reserves and counting crude only, the EIA estimates have recently exceeded those from BOEM. It looks like a lot of the probable reserves were converted to proved through positive revisions in the period 2008 to 2011; i.e. possibly due to some price increases then, but also immediately following the SEC rule changes to exclude reserves without firm development plans, which may or may not be coincidental: the E&Ps may be less strict on applying the SEC/SPE rule, which they are allowed to do for large, long term projects. The BOEM estimates are pretty much flat over recent years as additions (which then become backdated “discoveries”) from new projects going through FID balance production, whereas EIA estimates are declining with revisions recently zero to negative.
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