Chart 1 – A Model using data from Enno Peter’s shaleprofile.com.
The chart above (chart 1) needs some explanation. It is based on the Permian LTO model found by using Enno Peters’ data from shaleprofile.com and an estimate of future well completions. I doubt output will rise this quickly, but the peak level may be about right if oil prices follow the assumed scenario. Read More
The Texas Rail Road Comission has released their latest report with oil, gas and condensate production for April. The RRC data is always incomplete however and takes many months for the all the data to trickle in. The below chart shows that problem.
The data is barrels per data with the EIA data through March and RRC data through April. The EIA has Texas C+C data is highly linear for the 10 months June 2013 through March 2014, increasing at 48 kb/d for 4 months, 41 kb/d for one month then 49 kb/d for the last 5 months.
The EIA has Texas C+C increasing at an average of 48.6 bp/d each month for the last two years. I think that is a little high. I think the production has been increasing at close to 43 kb/d each month but with a recent slow down in that increase.
All Texas RRC June report data is through April. The RRC does not combine Crude with Condensate so I have to add the two. But here you can see the problem. Each month the reported data increases with the latest months showing the largest increase. However even if this is the case, the latest month should show an increase almost equal to the final total increase for that month. That was the case in the April Report, (January to February), but not the case for the last two reports.
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Waiting for Godot was a two act play by Samuel Beckett where two men kept waiting for Godot and they just kept waiting and waiting and waiting… And no, I don’t think we will be kept waiting and waiting like the characters in that play. Peak oil is about to arrive, in my opinion anyway.
Way back in 2005 we thought it likely that crude oil production had peaked at just under 74 million barrels per day. During the preceding three years C+C production had risen by 6,481,000 barrels per day or 2,160,333 barrels per day per year. The reason for that dramatic increase was a doubling in the price of oil from $25 per barrel in 2002 to $54.43 in 2005.
So oil production depends, to a great extent, the price of oil. The more money the more oil. However… The C+C data in all charts below are in thousand barrels per day.
You can see that another doubling of Brent oil price in the next 8 years brought only 2,283,000 bp/d of new oil on line, or an average of 285,375 bp/d per year.
So where did the increase in C+C come from between 2002 and 2005, and where has it come from since.
You can see the major addition to World C+C between 2002 and 2005 was from Eurasia, (FSU) the Middle East and Africa. The only major decline was from Europe, primarily the North Sea. Since 2005 the major gainers were North America followed by the Middle East and Eurasia, which we used to refer to as FSU. But 8 years is a long time, what has happened during those 8 years.
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