155 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum, October 2, 2022”

  1. Hi gang. I just wanted to tell you about my new book that has just been published. It’s called “A Worldview Based on Evidence”. Everyone has a worldview but very few are based on evidence. Most are based on dogma of religion or the dogma of science. Have a look and let me know what you think.

    I included my free will essay in chapter 1 but added to it.

    A Worldview Based On Evidence

    Also, my website is live again. Check it out.
    http://thefinetuneduniverse.com/

    Thanks,

    Ron Patterson

    1. Just wanted to let you know that the “Note from the Editor” is still in the book preview. Will order the book and look forward to read it!

      1. Thanks Required. Hope you like the book. I have no idea how to remove the “Note from the Editor” so it will just have to stay there until someone else removes it.

            1. Done. But realize that Amazon comments have turned into an echo chamber. A wingnut book will get only positive reviews because Amazon requires one to purchase it via Amazon first. Yet no sane person will buy that stuff, so negative reviews are rare.

      2. Just got a call from my editor. They uploaded the wrong manuscript to the printer and to Amazon. The “note to from the editor” should not have been in there. Several corrected strike-throughs were left in the manuscript, there were no page numbers, and chapter 11 was left out of the contents page. They are going to correct the kindle immediately and swap out all the books already shipped.

        Sorry for the screwup.

        1. But,,,, the uncorrected edition is going to be worth a lot more someday. Kind of like the ‘May” first edition of Gone With The Wind is because it wasn’t supposed to be released. Or like mint-made errors on coins.
          You can’t have it back!

        2. Lol I bought it for my kindle last night as we’re going camping on our 200ac mountain property this weekend and will have plenty of time to read by the fire pit. Noticed that same editors note and was like wtf is that? I have to finish The Elegant Universe and then I’m on to your book. When not busy engineering and doing my best to export all the US natural gas I can I have a side hobby in quantum mechanics so I’m interested in reading your book. Over the last five years or so learning relativity, the Higgs Field, string theory, etc it’s been a very humbling experience. The Universe is such an impossibly huge, crazy thing it boggles the mind.

    2. Hey Ron,

      Like I said in the other thread, I bought your book and am looking forward to reading it. I don’t know if this is relevant to what you’ve written in the book, but about 10 years ago I had an experience concerning my son resulting in my transition from being an evolutionist to a creationist. If you are interested, I would be happy to relate this experience to you via e-mail. It is brief, but you might find something in it for your consideration. The summary…evolution is absolutely not possible in my opinion.

      1. Thanks, Mike, I would most definitely be interested. I have an email address for subjects related to this book and my website. That email address is:
        Darwinian200@gmail.com
        And my website is:
        Thefinetuneduniverse.com

        Looking forward to hearing your story. And anyone else that has anything to say on the subject, please email me or comment on my website.

        Thanks

  2. Thanks for the great read Ron. Enjoyed every word. As was predetermined by the designer, and conditioned by reading your stuff for almost 30 years, you have my eight bucks!

  3. Musk says “Population collapse due to low birth rates is a much bigger risk to civilization than global warming,”

    Sorry Elon… civilization is not going to progress as you foresee.
    Water and soil and the health of the biosphere are more important to life than anything else.
    Real is simply real.
    Overshoot doesn’t have a pleasant cure.

    Congratulations Ron.

    1. I recently had a Gen Z client who thinks he’s going to Mars; didn’t know how to make coffee; that’s what you get at a drive through; probably a Bitcoin millionaire.

      Congrats on the book Ron.
      On principle, I shall be buying 2.

  4. https://newatlas.com/marine/new-aden-supertanker-sails/

    There’s a bright spot here and there.

    https://newatlas.com/marine/new-aden-supertanker-sails/

    It’s hard to say how much we can cut back on oil and gas just because it’s going to be cheaper to use less to get the necessary jobs done, but I’m willing to guess that we could get by ok with only half as much oil, globally, if we stay pedal to the metal on conservation and renewable electricity, given time to make the necessary adjustments and transition.

    One way of looking at oil is that it’s sort of like chemotherapy. Chemo keeps you alive, short term, and can even cures you, sometimes, but it’s a killer in and of itself, long term.

    Fossil fuels enabled us and got us into the environmental mess threatening to kill most ofus.

    But they may save us, if we work hard enough at the transition to a renewable economy.

    It’s obvious the renewable energy industries aren’t capable of supporting the transition in and of themselves.

    They’ll have to grow up by at least a couple of orders of magnitude before they can keep the lights on and the wheels turning on a world wide basis even under the most stringent austerity measures.

    But I believe it’s possible.

    Once it’s obvious that fossil fuels are not only killing us slowly but also that oil and gas depletion are threatening to kill us (via economic collapse) quickly, there’s some reason to believe that ” the powers that be” will divert enough money and man power from the military establishment and the personal land yacht industry to the renewable energy industries and conservation measures.

    1. “will divert enough money and man power from the military establishment”. Respectfully, au contraire. As energy supplies tighten those with the might to take from others will increase their belligerent activities to ensure their own survival, while those without the power will simply descend into the dark and be forgotten. There will be no benevolence among nations when things get tight. Bit by bit the lights will go out.

      1. Hi Adam,
        No doubt you are right that there will be lots of troubles associated with fossil fuel depletion, right up to hot wars…….. which have already happened a number of times for this very reason.

        But you are wrong in assuming it’s all going to be about grabbing and holding onto any and all the fossil fuel supplies.

        Countries all over are already putting a great deal of hard work into breaking the fossil fuel habit.

        Consider the obvious ( to me at least) fact that building out the wind and solar industries is very likely going to be cheaper and a more effective strategy, in the long term, than fighting for whatever is left of dwindling oil and gas supplies.

        Armies, navies, and air forces are extraordinarily expensive in any case, and likely to be several times more expensive, if scaled for AGGRESSIVE wars, which means leaving home to “go a viking”.

        Smaller military establishments and bigger renewable energy establishments are in the cards.

        Plus as a practical matter, renewable energy is getting cheaper, versus fossil fuels, and within another five to ten years, it’s going to be cheaper in more cases than not to just go renewable on a dollars and cents basis.

        1. OFM

          Do you understand, it is not the cost of wind and solar power that is the problem?

          Have you studied the power situation in Germany as a very powerful case in point?

          Germany has increased wind and solar power over the last 20 years by an extraordinay amount.

          https://energy-charts.info/charts/installed_power/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE&stacking=single&chartColumnSorting=default

          Germany installed solar power is equal to it’s maximum daily consumption. Germany’s installed wind power is larger than it’s maximum daily consumption. Both wind and solar were almost nonexistent 20 years ago.

          Dispite all this installed wind and solar there are countless times they are producing practically nothing. Factories, shops, offices, restaurants using 50,000mw while wind and solar are producing 3,000Mw. No matter how many wind turbines you have if the wind is not blowing 0x 1,000,000 still is 0.

          https://energy-charts.info/charts/power/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE&stacking=stacked_absolute_area&week=09

          here’s another week for you

          https://energy-charts.info/charts/power/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE&stacking=stacked_absolute_area&week=38

          With all this wind and solar you would assume German’s consumption of gas would have declined dramatically over the years. It has actually increased!

          https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/germany/natural-gas-consumption

          Have you hears what is happening in Europe regarding gas prices? IN th US you pay $6MMbtu in Europe prices have rocketed up to $70. All the countries that invested the most in solar and wind are paying the highest prices for gas and electric.

          The country least effected by these prices is France as it’s huge nuclear power fleet produces most the France’s electricity.

          There are idiots who claim battery storage is the answer. Batteries are still the most expensive form of electricity know to man. How many batteries would you need to power a factory for 8 hours or a town or a city?

          We are living through a financial death spiral at the moment and the f**king wind cornucopians are to blame. The unreliable nature of wind power has now made our grid unreliable.
          Hospitals are being told to make sure their diesel generators are tested and ready.
          What a mess

          1. >Batteries are still the most expensive form of electricity know to man.

            No. Batteries are more expensive than baseload electricity, but a lot cheaper than gasoline or diesel. Also they are cheaper and much more flexible than than most peaker plants, which are a major source of revenue for utilities.

            As batteries suck the profit out of the energy business, wind and solar will replace traditional power plants, and it will stop making sense to manufacture internal combustion engines.

            As a result, the surprising effect of batteries, which seem expensive at first glance, is to lower energy costs, and (more importantly) the profitability of the energy industry.

            2. Alimbiquated

              Who is powering the grid with diesel or petrol?

              Do not use stupid arguments in the vain hope of winning a hopeless position.

              You are obviously one of the idiots I was taking about.
              In the real world Uk cheapest generating capacity coal has been shut down by relentless pressure groups. These people claiming wind and solar can replace the reliable power of nuclear and coal.

              Mainly nuclear and some coal and gas would have made the U.K. self sufficient in energy.

              People are living now with the consequences of policy driven by fanatical pressure groups and not policies based on how an energy grid actually works.

              All the while China burns more coal in a month than the U.K. does in 25 years. Obviously because it is so expensive.

            3. Charles —
              Diesel only makes up a small percentage of the electricity market, because it is much too expensive. It is primarily used as a way of storing energy in a moving vehicle, so it competes with batteries.

              Coal consumption peaked in China in 2013. Since then the price of solar has fallen 90% or so, which is why the Chinese are adding 100 GW.

              As to British coal, I believe it was Margret Thatcher who killed the industry, because the coal miners were asking for more money..

          2. Information
            Germany. On average 137 days of sunshine.
            Arizona. On average 275 days of sunshine

            Now the kicker. Arizona is 1200 miles closer to the equator, with much stronger solar radiation. Solar power in Germany is just plane STUPID.

    2. yes, and I keep seeing a lot of progress on residential/small business scale heat pumps.
      Thats a big deal, especially when you pair them up with solar.
      For those who can get it done.

  5. Another example of the kind of news that will be come common globally once fossil fuels enter depletion phase without local replacement energy in place
    Ireland-
    “As oil, gas, electricity and coal prices soar, thousands of householders are turning to logs….‘I’ve never seen anything like it’ – firewood dealers refuse orders as fear of running out of fuel sparks shortage…
    Mr Flood said most of their timber is sourced from Latvia and Lithuania but that market has come under severe pressure as Finland, Norway and other countries …have imposed an order limit of one crate per customer.”

    1. Russias is perhaps testing a nuclear torpedo in the Arctic; won’t do them much good in Ukraine I’m afraid. Saber rattling; maybe that guy in the video sells survival rations or something. Maybe I’m wrong.

      All Russian subs emit and those emotions are picked up for analysis at the GIUK gap. Not a lot of Russian subs cruising around unknown.
      https://www.iiss.org/~/publication/799791dd-7be1-4484-abfd-05fa3a400889/the-giuk-gaps-strategic-significance.pdf

      Pretty soon NATO member states can perhaps showcase their anti submarine warfare capabilities; put some boats on the bottom, from where Boris can’t launch much of anything other than a distress call.
      https://mc.nato.int/media-centre/news/2022/natos-advanced-antisubmarine-warfare-exercise-dynamic-manta-underway-in-italy

      https://www.navy.mil/Press-Office/News-Stories/Article/3054800/nato-anti-submarine-warfare-exercise-dynamic-mongoose-to-begin-in-north-atlantic/

      I’ve always felt that the 21 countries which are both EU and NATO members could together take Russia without any help from USA, other than perhaps some lend-lease weapons contracts. Given that Ukraine just did it solo, I’d say I was on to something.
      Now that Russia is a few inches shorter we’ll see the USA more assertively Pivot to Asia; it’s European Allie’s feeling reassured by US performance on the matter after Trumps foreign policy charade.

      “Never Interfere With an Enemy While He’s in the Process of Destroying Himself”

      1. “You don’t know what you don’t know. The problem with submarines”

        — Peak Avocado

        Can you be 100% you have picked them all up and can destroy them?

        1. Russia has about 64 submarines, mostly with the Northern Fleet. They are all tracked all the time as a matter of policy. If one’s out of sight it’s being looked for. I feel quite confident they’re all sitting in the crosshairs right this very second.

          The sub testing the nuclear capable torpedo in the Arctic is probably the Knyaz Oleg, or maybe the Belgorod. Not all of them can do that. I got a pretty good idea where those ones will be.

          https://thediplomat.com/2021/02/russian-submarines-still-a-relevant-threat/

          1. The crosshairs of what?

            Submarines that are chasing them around?

            I’m pretty sure if Russia found a way to evade detection it wouldn’t be publicly available info.

            But I really don’t know.

            1. … the crosshairs of an anti submarine naval unit. All the locations where Russia can resupply and PM a sub are known. As a matter of routine the points are watched and subs intercepted for surveillance. The Baltic/Black Seas have choke points controlled by NATO nations, and it would be quite hard for the Russian ships to get out in wartime.

              The technology that tracks a sub best is another sub, so the most difficult (newer) ones to track will be tracked in that manner, but there are other ways also.

              https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/submarine-detection-and-monitoring-open-source-tools-and-technologies/

              https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Ports-of-the-Russian-submarine-fleetand-choke-points-ie-points-of-access-to_fig1_255736424

              If you fuck up one of their better ones the rest will thin out.

            2. My neighbour, a retired lieutenant colonel in the Canadian Air Force, told me that submarine stealth is a myth, that they routinely track them without any difficulty whatsoever (Russian, American, whatever make you wish).

            3. Many of the best subs are a nuclear power plant, on a boat, under the water. They make a bit of noise and have signals requirements for communications.

              Canada runs Diesel electric subs and those are quite stealthy, except when they’re snorkeling to run engines and recharge batteries, so they try do that in a safe spot; but as an opponent force the Canadian subs make great training partners with the US Navy. Canadian diesel electrics run quieter than a nuclear when they’re stalking.

              https://www.nato-pa.int/document/2019-nato-anti-submarine-warfare-rebuilding-capability-preparing-future-alleslev-150-stc

              I doubt Putins gonna pull a rabbit out a hat with these nuclear torpedo trials. It’s saber rattling for media consumption. Nuclear torpedoes are for sinking subs, not winning Ukraine. Nuclear missiles on subs are nothing new.

              Give him enough rope and he’ll gang himself.

          2. I was unaware of any new technology that can track a submarine underwater. Of course, there is sonar, but that has a very limited range, ten kilometers. There is a new technology that allows sonar from aircraft. But the plans must constantly be flying over the area of the ocean they are in for that to work. Hundreds of aircraft would have to be flying over their territory to know where they are at all the time. I just don’t believe they are doing that. A 2021 article on that new technology:

            New Sonar Sees Underwater From The Air, Promising To Transform Anti-Submarine Warfare

            1. I had understood the US tracks submarines through:
              – acoustic arrays underwater that listen for vessels passing ‘across the line’. These are in place so any sub leaving European waters is tracked, and also arrays exist on the North American east coast.
              – sonabuoys that are dropped into the ocean and use sonar. The latest models are just dropped while the aircraft is flying from London to New York (say), and they don’t need to be tended, they send their data through satellite. It’s only fine-scale tracking where you deploy dozens of them over a small area to pinpoint a location.
              – there was talk a few years ago of tests using blue-green lasers to look underwater directly but there doesn’t seem to have been any more mention of it.
              – using measurements of the height of the ocean surface, to detect the wake of a submarine passing below. Lots of data processing involved, but this clearly works as the speed of Russian torpedoes was measured in this way.
              – magnetic anomaly detectors, but I think these are pretty short-range.
              – forward looking infrared allows detection of the heat plume from the nuclear reactors driving nuclear powered vessels. A paper mentioned that modern nuclear subs mix their heated water with surrounding water before emitting it just to reduce this signature.

              Who knows what new technology is out there now. The rumour is that the US knows where all the Russian subs are all the time. I’m a little skeptical, because there would seem to be countermeasures to all these that an intelligent navy would use to add a lot of uncertainty to their positions.

              But then again, maybe they don’t need the location too accurately because any air-launched torpedo only has to get to the rough area, then once submerged starts using it’s active and passive sonars to find the target.

              The advantage is clearly on the side of the submarine. “In modern warfare there are only two kinds of ships – submarines and targets.”

            2. I spent most of 5 years on a US attack sub chasing Soviet subs. Active sonar is virtually never used. Passive arrays (super-sensitive microphones) listen for signatures of specific ships and subs which can be very accurate, and the range is much farther than 10 miles. In general, Russian subs are pretty noisy, with a few exceptions. I’m sure our technology has gotten much better since then. Seeing how the Russian military has performed in Ukraine, I’m not so sure about their tech and level of crew quality, especially since the USSR fell apart. I doubt their cold war dedication is the same today as it was, and their budget ain’t what it used to be.
              China may be another matter.

    2. If Putin uses nukes, he’s dead meat, and he knows it. His only hope is to scare or trick people into submitting. That’s why he spreads these rumors about super weapons.

      That was what he was hoping for in Ukraine. He sent the Mayday parade troops with no air cover in and gambled that marching up and down the main streets of Kyiv would scare off the government and subdue the populace. After his parade troops were massacred, he downscaled the attack and tried WWII tactics. What we’re seeing now is the failure of these tactics against Gulf War equipment like HIMARS, which were developed to fight Iraq. Iraq had a similar military.

      What we’re seeing now is a ramping up of the misinformation war in hopes he can scare the world into backing down. So brace yourself for more exciting reports of hypersonic missiles, lasers, nukes, starving Europeans etc.

      1. This nuke shit is stupid; Ukraine is kicking Russia out of their land and Russia’s gonna nuke who over it, Ukraine? Yeah go ahead, nuke your upwind neighbor. See how it goes.

        Putins saber rattling because the min USA starts selling the MGM 140 ATACMS the Ukrainians will have the Russian drone launch strips in range, and if Estonia gets ATACMS they will be able to hit St Petersburg, which makes an attack on Estonia much more costly.

        China is very quickly redoing some new and less pleasing math on the anticipated battle damage assessment for its Taiwan campaign. Motivated troops with American & NATO kit are clearly the best force. HIMARS work against naval targets also.
        https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/10/05/lockheed-anti-ship-missile-himars/

      1. While the situation in the US has it’s own peculiarities, I am far more interested in the larger global picture. I am yet to hear a plausible explanation for the difference in the prevalence of cases (and subsequent hospitalisations and deaths) between the high income countries/territories (mostly highly vaccinated populations) and low income (mostly sparsely vaccinated populations). The chart below (from Our World in Data) shows the daily new confirmed case per million people for high income countries, low income countries and India. One might attribute the difference to a difference in the amount of testing done but, reports of overflowing hospitals and morgues from low income countries have been very sparse if any at all.

        Then there is the peculiar case of India where the delta wave was creating all sorts of mayhem going into April 2021 before suddenly just waning between April and June (see chart below). Between the first of May and the first of July the portion of the Indian population that was fully vaccinated went from 2% to 4.3% and the portion that had received at least one shot went from 9.2% to 20%. Are we to believe that this modest amount of vaccinations was responsible for the dramatic decline in new cases? It is noteworthy that since the middle of 2021, India has not experienced any spikes in cases that are even remotely comparable to the spikes in high income countries in early 2022 for example. What was responsible for the decline in new cases between April and July in India?

        As for Africa the situation there remains a mystery with covid-19 having the greatest impact in the country that is ostensibly the most developed country in Africa, South Africa. What is it about Africa that caused the virus to have relatively little impact there despite appallingly low rates of vaccination? Most of the continent has yet to vaccinate as much as 50% of the population with the DRC and Madagascar having vaccinated less than 10% of their populations.

        Even in Jamaica where I live covid is no longer a topic for discussion despite the fact that more than 70% of the population opted not to take advantage of the available vaccines. It appears that the advice from the public health agencies that there are no effective treatments for the disease was largely ignored. I know several people that used all kinds of vitamins, supplements and traditional herbal remedies with a few even resorting to that drug which shall not be named. These are people that are still alive and well.

        1. Yes, Covid mostly affected rich countries. The less developed a country was, the less impacted it was by Covid. I think this has a simple explanation.
          1. Covid mostly killed old people whose lives were artificially prolonged by expensive modern healthcare. There is only a small number of such people in poor countries. There are not too many 80 year old diabetics or kidney transplant recipients in Africa or rural India.
          2. Covid mostly killed people who are metabolically unhealthy. This is caused by frequent and excess consumption of carbohydrates and a sedentary Lifestyle. Again this is a luxury that is not available to most people in rural India or Africa. If you are a poor person in a poor country your food consumption is limited by lack of income. You cannot eat all day just because you are bored or depressed or like to eat. Also most poor do manual labor. If you don’t work you don’t eat. This is very different from the lifestyle of the underclass in wealthy countries.

          An easy way to protect yourself from Covid was to lose weight. An easy way to lose weight is by minimizing the consumption of refined carbohydrates and getting all your calories and nutrition from a small number (1 or 2) meals a day with no snacking between meals. I have done this and lost over 20 pounds and significantly improved my metabolic health. It is a crime that the CDC and NIH never publicized this.

          1. Anyone who can read demographics charts can answer islandboys question. IB’s either dense, willfully obtuse, or both. “Plausible” lol get the fuck outta here….

            1. SURVIVALIST —

              Islandboy is an anti-vaxxer who will cherry pick any crap available to further his childish crusade. For the record: In Jamaica, from 3 January 2020 to 6:28pm CEST, 7 October 2022, there were 151,931 confirmed cases of COVID-19 with 3,320 deaths, reported to WHO. As of 16 September 2022, a total of 1,487,460 vaccine doses have been administered. The current population of Jamaica is roughly 3,000,000.

            2. Islandboy says:

              ” I am far more interested in the larger global picture. “

              Yet, everything seems to get filtered through his narrow Jamaican aperture. Stopped reading him long ago because Jamaica is not representative of the world at all.

            3. @Doug, I use Google to search for “covid cases Jamaica” and halfway down the results page I get the graph below. When I put the pointer over the right edge of the graph, the pop up box indicates:
              At least one dose – 833,696 – 28.2%
              Fully Vaccinated – 732,564 – 24.7%

              @Paul, Using 2020 figures from Google the combined population of Europe, Canada and the USA was 1,113.9 million. That is slightly more than one seventh of the global population and less than Africa (1,216 million) or India (1,396 million) or China (1,402 million). Even the combined population of Europe, Canada, The USA, Japan, Australia and China is only a little more than a third of the global population and only slightly more than the combined population of India and Africa. . My “larger global picture” includes places like Africa and India among the other two thirds.

          2. The CDC and the NIH also did not pay much attention to the relationship between blood calcidiol (25(OH)D3) levels and covid infection severity. In the UK, one member of parliament (David Davis) tried to raise the issue and get the public health agencies there to try and correct for low vitamin D levels in certain segments of the population (eg. elderly and BAME). He was not successful. Vitamin D levels may also be part of your suggestion that the poor people in poor countries are more metabolically healthy in that, it is quite likely that many of them spend more time outdoors, exposed to direct sunlight.

            On the other hand the diet of poor people in some poor countries is very high in refined carbohydrates. In Jamaica for example, refined wheat flour is a staple even among rural poor who eat it in the form of flour “dumplings” made by making a dough with flour and a little salt, kneaded into round cakes and either boiled or fried. Another imported staple is rice which can is the typical carbohydrate in most meals. Baked products like bread, crackers, biscuits, buns and cakes are widely available and relatively inexpensive. Bottled soft drinks are also relatively inexpensive and very widely distributed. In the city where I live, fast food franchises serving fried chicken, hamburgers and pizzas appear to be doing very brisk business with new locations being opened every now and again. The result of this high carbohydrate diet is that “data from the 2016/17 Jamaica Health and Lifestyle Survey showed that one in two Jamaicans or 54 per cent were overweight or obese.” Apparently the obesity issue affects other Caribbean countries with reports that “childhood obesity is an emerging crisis globally and in the Caribbean where 1 in 3 children are overweight or obese.”

            I have no idea what the situation is in other poor regions of the World.

            1. Lower population density; larger proportion of the population engaged in rural living; a younger population; that’s what’s going on in the poorer regions of the world. Duh. The world must be such a mystery.

              “Compared with Europe, Africa’s younger and rural population may modify the severity of the epidemic. The large youth population may lead to more infections but most of these infections will be asymptomatic or mild, and will probably go undetected.”
              https://reliefweb.int/report/world/relatively-young-and-rural-population-may-limit-spread-and-severity-covid-19-africa

              https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Analysis_of_competing_hypotheses

            2. “Less population density, larger proportion of rural living, and younger population is what’s going on in the poorer regions of the world.” Silly me! How did such a simple explanation escape me?

            3. Cuz you’re either dense, willfully obtuse, or both; as previously stated.

              If you’re looking for a bunch of mysteries to ponder, perhaps consider looking into how demographic factors like age, population density and rural vs urban living in sub Saharan Africa impact the morbidity and mortality of other highly communicable respiratory illnesses besides covid, since you seem quite keen.

              Are you a Qtard or Trumpsters perchance?

    1. When the egg gets fertilized and starts splitting and continues to grow at some point certain cells become our liver others become brain cells other cells end up being toe nails. Scientists have no idea what causes this choice of cell selection. DNA doesn’t come close to having the information for this detail. The article is crap. Look up the detailed schematic of a cell wall, the complexity of something as mundane as that is astonishing and to believe that is occurred by random selection certainly can be questioned.

        1. Ervin – try reading a modern book – i.e. anything from the last twenty five years – on genetics and epigenetics. If anything there is too much information in DNA so it is difficult to know which bits between (or within) the genes are just left over junk and which is involved in activating and deactivating genes in different circumstances, or connected with other aspects of communication within and between chromosomes and cells. And because it is evolved rather than designed it is a complete mess with whatever works being retained and everything else fading away or forgotten about or repurposed as something useful again.

      2. “DNA doesn’t come close to having the information for this detail.”
        Wrong.
        Maybe you refrain from speaking about things that you don’t know about.

        1. Hickory, I guess ErvIn is an ID (Intelligent Design) guy. But he has a point – how and why cell differentiation occurs seems to be a mystery. Human DNA has about 20k genes. Is that enough to explain the complexity of growth and development? Maybe the evo-devo guys have come up with something recently but the last time I looked, the cupboard was bare.

          1. John. “Is that [human DNA] enough to explain the complexity of growth and development?”
            Yes it certainly is.

            This explains a bit of the action, from 2008, as just a tiny example of the understanding.
            “Regulation of Transcription and Gene Expression in Eukaryotes” -If our genes are so similar, what really makes a eukaryote different from a prokaryote, or a human from E. coli? The answer lies in the difference in gene expression and regulation used.
            “It is estimated that the human genome encodes approximately 25,000 genes, about the same number as that for corn and nearly twice as many as that for the common fruit fly. Even more interesting is the fact that those 25,000 genes are encoded in about 1.5% of the genome. So, what exactly does the other 98.5% of our DNA do? While many mysteries remain about what all of that extra sequence is for, we know that it does contain complex instructions that direct the intricate turning on and off of gene transcription.”

            https://www.nature.com/scitable/topicpage/regulation-of-transcription-and-gene-expression-in-1086/

            or another simple explanation of it-
            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transcriptional_regulation

            An incredible array of outcomes are possible, as the hundreds of millions various organisms that have arisen are testimony to.

          2. >how and why cell differentiation occurs seems to be a mystery

            It’s not a mystery at all. The mathematical basis was described by Alan Turing decades ago in his paper “The Chemical Basis of Morphogenisis”. The chemical details are also well understood. For example the way homeobox proteins are distributed and control development is very well understood. These proteins control the epigenetic information that controls expression of other proteins, including other homeobox genes in some cases.

            In his paper, Turing showed that a mixture of liquids that express or suppress each other based on a clear set of rules could lead to the formation of complex patterns, and this process has been demonstrated again and again by embryologists. Obviously there is a lot of detail (and they differ from organism to organism) but calling it a mystery is silly.

            This leads to a lot of interesting observations. For example, limbs start out as concentric circles, with the innermost circle the precursor to the tip of the limb and the outermost circle the base. Butterflies reuse this pattern to make concentric circle patterns on their wings.

            1. True, evolution is not a mystery. Life evolved. The DNA molecule is very complex. But it had over three billion years to evolve. But the speed of evolution is determined by generation time, not years. The single-cell organisms had a generation time of from hours to days.

              Anything that can be explained by evolution should be explained by evolution. But inanimate matter did not evolve. It just exists. Therein lies the mystery.

            2. Alim,
              Epigenetics is defined as heritable changes in gene expression and genome integrity that are accompanied by no alteration in DNA sequence. ~ the internet

              Wait, what? It’s not all about DNA after all? A heart cell has exactly the same DNA as a liver cell but produces vastly different proteins.

              Given the relative ease of manipulation, exogenously-administered stem cells can be differentiated into a particular cell lineage to secrete specific proteins. However, the precise mechanism(s) whereby stem cells normally proliferate and differentiate into specific lineages, or even what determines the fate of these stem cells, is not yet understood.
              ~ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4783933/

              Not yet understood: sounds like a mystery to me…

          3. There’s an excellent book by Sean Carroll called Endless Forms Most Beautiful and a large sections is about how a very few HOX structural genes can form all the body plans for animals depending on the timing and combinations in which they are activated.

            1. Just to avoid confusion, there are two Sean Carrolls. Both are PhDs, and both write books. But one is a biologist, and the other is a physicist, of the cosmologist variety. Both are quite famous in their field. I think the biologist Sean Carroll is a lot smarter, however. Sean Carroll the physicist, in a book called “Something Deeply Hidden,” tells how the universe splits into hundreds of other universes every second and has been doing so since the big bang. The technical name for this is “The Many Worlds Theory”. Nobel Laureate Roger Penrose called this “Reducto ad Absurdum”. English translation, “Total Absolute Bullshit”.

      3. Ervin wrote: DNA doesn’t come close to having the information for this detail.

        Bullshit! You are obviously an intelligent design creationist. I suppose you also believe the universe is only 6,000 years old.

  11. This was published 23 hours ago; around the time Elon began shitposting his proposed diplomatic solutions to war in Ukraine.

    Tesla slides on widening delivery and production gap, demand worries
    https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-slides-logistic-issues-widen-deliveries-production-gap-2022-10-03/

    And on a lighter note; incel leader & pronoun aficionado thinks Russia is doing ok.
    https://youtu.be/BnxxELn00gk

    Most people have internalized the key points of Jordan Peterson’s “12 Rules for Life” book by Grade 8; for those who hadn’t learnt this, l suppose getting some BASIC lessons about self reliance and accountability later in life is better than not at all. Now if Jordan Peterson fans could also learn that this eye opening experience doesn’t actually make them special, that’d be great.

    1. I do NOT have a high opinion of Musk as an individual, but his personal character isn’t really all that important in terms of Tesla as a company.

      The stock price is based on two major factors, so far as I can see. One is the company’s potential, long term, to mint money, and that seems to be as real as real can get.

      The other is speculation. The price of the stock is going to go up and down depending on which way the wind is blowing at any given minute.

      Bad news and sex have always been best sellers. I’ve been hearing the bad news without a break ever since I first heard of the company, lol.

      Maybe competition will drive down Tesla’s long term profit potential. I’m sure it will.

      But Tesla is just about dead sure the best car company in the world at this time, in terms of technology, not just in the car itself, but also in the factories where the car is built.

      It’s going to take the rest of the industry years to catch up.

      1. Musk is a hype man, and the words that come out of his mouth have a lot to do with Tesla share value, which is the basis of his primary compensation; to wit, when share value goes down it’s deflected from with news of Musks pov on international relations and his platitudes on war; like todays statement from Musk that “War is the ultimate Supreme Court”.

        https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Platitude

        Musk is selling Tesla stock to buy Twitter. So much for the buy and hold fanboys. Musk is CEO of Tesla, CEO of SpaceX, founder of the Boring Company, and co-founder of Neuralink and OpenAI. There is no indication of what his role at Twitter might be. The dudes a red flag on a black and white screen; has been for a while. Folks who think so highly of Tesla and care about its future should have realized by now that tech daddy needs to go. But it’s not a company, it’s a cult.

        EVs are part of an ideology, not a solution to our existential threats. Someone has sold many an incorrect construction of the problem definition.

        Is it time for Elon Musk to find a Tim Cook for Tesla?
        https://techcrunch.com/2022/10/05/is-it-time-for-elon-musk-to-find-a-tim-cook-for-tesla/

        Is Tesla seeing a slowdown in demand?
        https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/economy/2022/10/4/is-tesla-seeing-a-slowdown-in-demand

        Musk Adds Twitter Mission While Taking Tesla’s in New Direction
        “There’s not a whole lot of overlap between accelerating the transition to sustainable energy at Tesla and crusading for free speech and eliminating spam bots at Twitter. But Musk’s followers are witnessing more than just mission creep across the many companies he controls. He acknowledged last week that it’s going on within Tesla, as well.”
        https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2022/10/06/musk-adds-twitter-mission-while-taking-teslas-in-new-direction

        WHY ELON MUSK’S ROBOT DREAMS MAY BE A STEP TOO FAR FOR TESLA
        “As with some of his other gizmos, Musk offered a highly optimistic timeline: He claimed Optimus would ship in merely five years and cost $20,000. Meanwhile, many Tesla owners are still waiting for the Full-Self Driving tech that they paid for half a dozen years ago.”
        https://www.inverse.com/innovation/tesla-optimus-prototype/amp

        Here are some of the cringiest revelations in the Elon Musk text dump
        https://techcrunch.com/2022/09/29/elon-musk-texts-discovery-twitter/amp/

        Elon Musk Reverses Course, Will Go Through With Twitter Takeover
        “there’s plenty of speculation about why Musk suddenly decided to go through with the purchase. In particular, a professor at Columbia Law School noted Musk was “about to get deposed” and a “lot of uncomfortable facts” would likely come out.”
        https://www.carscoops.com/2022/10/elon-musk-reverses-course-will-go-through-with-twitter-takeover/amp/

        Tesla is a techno cornucopian circle jerk, aka a situation in which a group of people engage in self-indulgent or self gratifying behavior, especially by reinforcing each other’s views or attitudes.

        Tesla won’t weather the storm; rats, floorboards, dweebs, all that.
        Put a pin in it.

        1. We disagree-
          “EVs are part of an ideology, not a solution to our existential threats.”

          No, EV’s are simply a much more energy efficient mechanism of travel than are ICE vehicles.
          (and btw much lower in carbon emission/mile)
          And that is it.
          A way to get around without needing so much oil.
          I know people who haven’t been to a gas station in almost a decade.
          They in effect pay themselves for the home generated electricity to drive around.

          Your idea about ideology is its own ideology. Tangled thought train.
          And of course no thing is ‘a solution to our existential threats’!
          I swallow no such advertising claim. Only a silly person would.

          btw- I acknowledge the success of in Musk pushing hard to make Tesla/EV’s a reality. He earned that praise. But I have nothing else good to say about him. Quite the opposite!

          1. I feel EV is most certainly an ideology; as it is indeed a new branch of an older one; kinda like the New Testament.

            Ideologies are systems of attitudes and values that are organized around an abstract theme; Values are regarded as abstract ideals that function as important guiding principles.
            https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/0-387-36921-X_12

            The social ideology of the motorcar
            https://unevenearth.org/2018/08/the-social-ideology-of-the-motorcar/

            https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_the_car_on_societies

            The political economy of car dependence: A systems of provision approach
            https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629620300633

            The Ideology of Traffic
            https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2016/12/4/the-ideology-of-traffic

            Speaking about accidents: The ideology of auto safety
            “Discourses about traffic accidents are limited by an ideology of autornobility that has accompanied increased auto dependence and the hegemony of the automobile over social space”
            https://www.researchgate.net/publication/285771441_Speaking_about_accidents_The_ideology_of_auto_safety

            Tesla continues to cash in on carbon credits
            https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/988168/tesla-continues-to-cash-in-on-carbon-credits-988168.html

            GM and Fiat Chrysler Unmasked as Tesla’s Secret Source of Cash
            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-03/tesla-s-secret-source-of-cash-unmasked-as-gm-and-fiat-chrysler?sref=9LYdrt30#xj4y7vzkg

            EV vs Motorcar vs No Car are competing ideologies.

            Nate did a recent podcast on trends in individualism
            https://youtu.be/ocoFGelQ3vE

            Modern Democracy as the Cult of the Individual: Durkheim on religious coexistence and conflict
            https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/2050303218823069

            1. Yep- you are definitely twisted up in an ideological turmoil of the mind over EV’s.

              Luckily I see things much more simply.
              EV is a transport tool. A much simpler one than they replace.
              Everything else is either an exploration factual details, or is a form of voluntary hysteria.

              disclaimer- I admit to getting pretty pissed off about E Musk. I prefer him to just shut up do a rapid fade to the miniature golf course.

            2. Electric cars are here to save the car industry, not the planet. It’s easy to see.

              “We don’t know who discovered water, but we’re pretty sure it wasn’t a fish.” ~ Aphorism, Author Unknown
              https://www.mentalhelp.net/blogs/the-power-of-witnessing-how-would-a-fish-know-it-is-in-water/

              Seems more or less obvious that Musk is compromised. That is not a problem as such. The problem is his control over critical military and security infrastructure. That has to end.

            3. “Electric cars are here to save the car industry, not the planet.”

              EV’s aren’t here to ‘save’ anything.
              They are a mechanism to keep moving once oil is no longer cheap or available,
              or if you want to move along with less energy consumption and less carbon emission than with a comparable ICE vehicle.

            4. EVs are a way to get into the countryside to pick up eggs, veggies, and fruits when TSHTF.

          2. Nate did a recent podcast on trends in individualism
            https://youtu.be/ocoFGelQ3vE

            Modern Democracy as the Cult of the Individual: Durkheim on religious coexistence and conflict
            https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/2050303218823069

            ‘One of the problems with EVs from the beginning is that they have been primarily an ideological crusade, rather than a quest to develop something that is a meaningful and practical solution to the overshoot and collapse crisis.’

            1. That’s a parochial view. EVs are mostly a Chinese phenomenon, and the Chinese government is pushing them as part of its industrial policy, because it correctly identified EVs as being a replacement for traditional cars and wants to be there first.

              Since China is neither Christian nor a democracy, Durkheim is irrelevant.

            2. China has not much oil left and not a big military stronghold in the gulf where most of the oil is.

              So getting away from oil is a strong strategic deceision for them, long before oil runs dry. So it’s electric cars (and busses and scooter) – and they are going LiFePO from the beginning to avoid the same traps with cobalt and Nickel they don’t control.

              Seeing the chaos in Europe it’s wise to be not too dependend on core imports from far away countries you can’t influence.

            3. Eulen- “So getting away from oil is a strong strategic deceision for them, long before oil runs dry. ”

              It is not just a strategic decision for the Chinese.
              It is a strategic (and economic existential) decision for the whole world.

              Success or failure of nations will in part hinge on how quickly they get the job done.

        2. And your obsession with attacking Musk goes on. It seems the more you obsess, name call and post about him and Tesla, their success continues. Over 3 million vehicles on the road, long waiting lists for their products, more and more megapack successes, increasing profitability, are adequate to deflect of your ridiculous and continuous negativity. The only cult I see is the desperation of you anti-Musk types in regards to his successes. Your obsession should be an embarrassment to yourself.

          1. “Musk’s followers are witnessing more than just mission creep across the many companies he controls. He acknowledged last week that it’s going on within Tesla, as well.”

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2022/10/06/musk-adds-twitter-mission-while-taking-teslas-in-new-direction

            If you have a sprawled out CEO whose sprawling out the company, and he can’t be fired because it would hurt the company, then you don’t really have a company, you have a cult.

  12. Alas, nothing new here!

    UN CHIEF: WORLD IS IN `LIFE-OR-DEATH STRUGGLE’ FOR SURVIVAL

    Antonio Guterres warned Monday that the world is in “a life-or-death struggle” for survival as “ climate chaos gallops ahead” and accused the world’s 20 wealthiest countries of failing to do enough to stop the planet from overheating. Guterres warned that current pledges and policies “are shutting the door on our chances to limit global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius, let alone meet the 1.5 degree goal.”

    1. Perfect storm isn’t it! The world wants to sustain business as usual, while transitioning to energy sources which have less-bad impacts on the climate. Only way that can be achieved is to sustain present fossil-fuelled activity, then ADD the immense fossil-fuelled activity required to create the non-fossil-fuelled energy infrastructure which would then allow the abandonment of all the fossil fuelled infrastructure (oh the waste!), all the while executing the work required to shift coastal civilisation above the eventual high tide mark of the rising seas caused by the melting ice which will continue to melt until the CO2 level gets back below 250 ppm which will only occur over geological timescales. This all requires a doubling to trebling of our fossil-fuelled energy use to achieve this work, which will of course exacerbate the already unhappy CO2 level and rate of progress into unlivable climate conditions. Rock. Hard place. Take your pick.

      1. The scientific truth is similar to the scientific truth in the 1970’s which stated we would witness the permanent decline of global oil reserves and production within a decade or two. As was again witnessed regarding global temperature, the message was reinforced by both the media and government officials. During that time I was a young’n in my 20’s, not far out of school. And I actually believed that crap. In hindsight, teenagers and younger folks are inherently gullible. Teens and 20 year olds are also looking to “matter” somehow, and there’s no better way to get a sense of “mattering” besides trying to challenge the Status Quo and overtake society. It’s a routine part of “growing up” becoming an adult, only it’s not actually “growing up” once you have enough life experience to realize what “growing up” truly means.

        Anyway, my point is government started acting like a teenager. It took advantage of the opportunity to call for fewer freedoms but more taxes and regulations. The industry took it as an excuse to raise customer prices. Now, decades later, not much about the tactics have changed, just the cause associated with the tactics has turned into a completely different crisis based loosely around some plausible proof mixed around with numerous exaggerations and illogical nonsense. The result is a theme amplified, distorted and fed to the masses. I mean let’s look at this rationally. Why do the 20 wealthiest countries “have to” do something to save the planet while all other countries can just do whatever they please and go on living the best life? Don’t you see what this will do? It will make the wealthy countries poor and the poor countries wealthy. In other words, global income redistribution. Well, what do you know, for decades that has been the ultimate goal for all these globalist types that wield very significant power in wealthy countries. The agenda couldn’t be any clearer whenever the UN discusses its concerns.

        1. So…you would prefer to pretend that the world is in good shape and
          countries should just ignore what happens beyond their borders.
          And you don’t mind that the wealthiest 1% holds nearly as much wealth as the bottom 90%.

          Good for you.

        2. @Mesteve, holding an opinion about, or having a belief about, the state of the universe (or some part of it) means having a belief that you think everyone should share. If you believe that your universe is so, and your universe is my universe (hi there!), then you must (MUST!) think that I, too, should believe that our universe, is so.

          Mesteve- ” my point is government started acting like a teenager. It took advantage of the opportunity to call for fewer freedoms but more taxes and regulations. The industry took it as an excuse to raise customer prices”

          @Mesteve- On January 22, 1973, the Supreme Court issued a 7–2 decision holding that the Due Process Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution provides a fundamental “right to privacy”, which protects a pregnant woman’s right to an abortion. In 1981, Reagan significantly reduced the maximum tax rate, which affected the highest income earners, and lowered the top marginal tax rate from 70% to 50%; in 1986 he further reduced the rate to 28%.

          Mesteve- ” I mean let’s look at this rationally. Why do the 20 wealthiest countries “have to” do something to save the planet while all other countries can just do whatever they please and go on living the best life?” “It will make the wealthy countries poor and the poor countries wealthy. In other words, global income redistribution. ” “The agenda couldn’t be any clearer whenever the UN discusses its concerns.”

          UNICEF- “The world’s richest countries – including Finland, Iceland, the Netherlands and Norway – are providing healthier environments for children within their borders, yet are disproportionately contributing to the destruction of the global environment. “Not only are the majority of rich countries failing to provide healthy environments for children within their borders, they are also contributing to the destruction of children’s environments in other parts of the world,” said Gunilla Olsson, Director of UNICEF Office of Research – Innocenti. “In some cases we are seeing countries providing relatively healthy environments for children at home while being among the top contributors to pollutants that are destroying children’s environments abroad.””

          https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/over-consumption-worlds-richest-countries-destroying-childrens-environments-globally

          Ron Patterson- “Everyone has a worldview but very few are based on evidence. Most are based on dogma of religion or the dogma of science.”

          @Mesteve, you need to buy a book

    2. Aren’t things progressing pretty much according to the worse reasonable predictions from various doomers over the past decade:

      The rise of right wing demagogues (e.g. Sweden), kakistocracies (e.g. UK), dictatorships (e.g. Mali) and various other autocracies like theocracies (e.g. future USA) and ochlocracies as social unrest gets worse.

      The start of the death of economic systems based on debt based growth; increasing conflict between economical and ecological issues, in which the economy always wins quickly and overwhelmingly; less and less money available to humanitarian aid organisations be they UN based, national, NGOs, global charities etc. as demand for aid rapidly increases; inward looking policies tending towards localisation and ultimately autarchies rather than globalisation; the fading of Pax Americana, which is likely to accelerate dramatically after the next two election cycles.

      Climate change following the worse case RCP path where, even if there might not be enough fossil fuels to supply the modelled carbon, there are plenty of other mechanisms from loss of sinks and accelerating feedbacks releasing CO2 or, worse and less expected, methane from ancient permafrost, existing forests, oceans, peat, clathrates etc.; coupled with consequences from climate disasters being worse than expected and the discoveries of earlier and coupled, irreversible tipping points.

      Almost every planetary boundary now exceeded or close to being so, with some including aspects, like nano plastics or endocrine disrupting chemicals, having long term, possibly devastating, impacts that we are only just beginning to appreciate.
      Most important, possibly, the early stages of agricultural collapse from various stressors like climate, biodiversity loss, fossil fuel depletion, soil erosion and salinisation, aquifer exhaustion.

      Antonio was reading the wrong books, but then if he’d been reading the alternatives someone else would be giving his speeches now.

      1. Well said. Unfortunately. A few color revolutions and polite protests by school children are not going to make any meaningful difference in any timeframe that matters.

      2. The thing is, George, your comments come from a deliberate viewpoint of pessimism and doom when how we should be looking at it is that technology exists at this very moment to overcome basically all of the issues you bring up. We need to start with 100% renewable energy solutions, as all of the other problems can be alleviated from there. Furthermore, we need to invest in two areas: (1) development of replacements to the plastic products we can’t live without (2) sensible solutions for current plastic pollution. We just need to start electing politicians willing and able to implement all of these things.

        1. Derrick. Good luck with all that. You and Elon can prance around with Shebots on Mars.
          Seriously, I think George has a much better grip on the status of the world than just about everybody.

        2. Amongst many other things is, Derrick, that while you can argue we have all of the necessary technologies (we don’t) it is irrelevant, because what we don’t have is the necessary resources (material, human or time) and by a very wide margin, possibly some orders of magnitude. And to get the limited remaining resources we need to address one problem will exacerbate several others. As for: “We just need to start electing politicians willing and able to implement all of these things,” see below at 22 seconds: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hI1nPd7hezM. Antonio can only say what he does because he was appointed, doesn’t answer to a party political machine and has a fixed single term.

      3. “Aren’t things progressing pretty much according to the worse reasonable predictions from various doomers over the past decade” ~ GK

        It seems to me that the doomers are perhaps better grasping the real world macro trends than Nick is, for example.

    1. “even if the United States slips into recession in the next year, the IRA will only become more important. Historically, economists and businesses have treated helping the environment as a product of prosperity—if the economy is good, then companies can afford to do the right thing. But the IRA’s programs and incentives will keep flowing no matter the macro environment, which makes betting on clean energy one of the most certain economic trends of the next few years. Clean energy is now the safe, smart, government-backed bet for conservative investors. It’s really a shocking reversal of the past 40 years. It is such a change that it hasn’t yet been metabolized by the world of people involved in the issue.”

      “Perhaps rosiest of all was the bank’s view of major risks to the IRA. The bill passed with not even a single Republican vote, but the bank concludes that the GOP is relatively unlikely to repeal the law, even if they take the White House in 2024. That’s because it would hurt their own voters most: “Republican-leaning states are likely to see the most investment, job, and economic benefits from the IRA,” the report claims. Instead, the IRA is most likely to stumble because America still struggles with building out its energy infrastructure: The country might not be able to get government approval to permit enough power lines, green infrastructure, … the bank said.”

    1. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Status-6_Oceanic_Multipurpose_System

      https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/03/russias-new-poseidon-super-weapon-what-you-need-to-know/

      Torpedo ambush by a fast moving blocking force will stop it once it’s location and trajectory has been established.

      https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_50_torpedo

      https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_54_Lightweight_Torpedo

      It is limited to naval and littoral targets. Flyover states are safe from it, as is Ukraine; ICBMs threaten far more targets. It does not change the strategic balance.

      How autonomous do you think a nuclear powered mini sub is gonna be? If Russia dispatches these devices on reconnaissance missions NATO member states will likely catch a few for examination.

      1. From you link:

        “Compared to an intercontinental ballistic missile it is very slow, but possibly unstoppable.”

        If this thing was coming towards me, I wouldn’t feel confident that dropping depth charges was a 100% certain.

        And that assumes only 1 is coming.

        The ocean is pretty big. I don’t see how you could monitor everything.

        1. What ever it may be, it’s sure to be obscenely expensive = doubtful Russia could have produced many of those things. Besides, the only people in Russia with very much money are oligarchs who are more worried about protecting their super-yachts from sanctions than protecting Mother Russia, Of course, it’s still a priority of the western military industrial complex and some guys on YouTube selling prepper supplies to assign god-like status to the Russian military. Seems some people in Ukraine didn’t get that memo.

          1. Hi Ghung,
            I’m pretty much with you in terms of your estimates of what Russia can or might be able to do.
            But you might want to do a little more thinking about the political situation in Russia these days.

            My impression is that Putin’s secret police are taking out the oligarchs on a SCHEDULE, the intent being to make sure the ones still alive understand that it’s either toe his line, or fall out of a window.

            1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_beiSDfINi4

              As Peter Zeihan explains,

              There are two types of oligarchs in Russia

              1) The ones who got rich (robber barons) by stealing Russia’s resources after the collapse of Soviet Union. They don’t have much influence on Putin.

              2) Putin’s inner circle ( like Igor Sechin of Rosneft ) who Putin selected to run his command and control economy. These guys are close to him and this is who he trusts or mistrusts.

        2. It seems to me that it is being referred to as unstoppable because of its speed and depth, like nothing can catch it, but creative minds know it doesn’t have to be caught up to, it needs to be gotten in front of and ambushed. A fixed wing aircraft fitted with torpedoes will do this easily.

          All the coastal targets it threatens are already threatened by ICBMs, and have been for a long time. It does not change the strategic balance.

          The HIMARS the US sells to Europe are fitted with the GMLRS rockets; good for about 57 miles. If US instead sells them the ATACMS missile, good for 190 miles and fits the same launch vehicle, then Estonia will be able to strike St. Petersburg. That WOULD change things a lot.

          It seems to me that throughout history Russia has always possessed the worst methods of selecting a leader; have they ever had a good one?

          1. Survivalist: “It seems to me that throughout history Russia has always possessed the worst methods of selecting a leader; have they ever had a good one?”

            Peter the Great.

            1. But as a side note, Churchill said you can always trust the Americans doing the right thing, after trying everything else…

  15. High speed rail is still alive in California, but apparently on life support.

    Now here’s a question.

    Given the political and money problems associated with JUST -securing the right of ways needed for high speed rail, it seems to me that a long distance high speed super subway system might actually be cheaper in the near future, given that tunneling technology is advancing by leaps and bounds.

    Putting in just ONE over pass or under pass for rail at an existing free way or major highway is going to run well into the millions of dollars.

    Any opinions are welcome, and thanks in advance.

    1. But isn’t the tunneling cost an order of magnitude (or more) higher than surface rail?

      2. https://reason.org/commentary/on-high-speed-rail-look-at-the-costs-and-results-before-you-leap/

        The cost per mile of the planned 520-mile California high-speed rail system, assuming it could actually be built for the current estimate of $80 billion, is $154 million per mile. And Amtrak’s own estimates for replacing its existing Northeast Corridor with true high-speed rail work out to over $500 million per mile.

        Going underground can eliminate most or nearly all of the right of way and nimby problems that run into millions of dollars per mile, plus eliminating rebuilding highway and rail intersections, etc.
        Existing rail right of ways are NOT generally suitable for true high speed rail. They’re too crooked with too many changes in elevation.

        Surface rail and highway work are mature industries, and dominated politically by contractors and labor.

        Going underground can mean going mostly automated, and avoiding most of the politics.
        Plus tunneling using NEW methods seems to be a whole new ballgame, in terms of construction costs.

  16. Hard to find a bright spot in this study. Maybe outright denial is best path to take?

    CLIMATE RISK INDEX SHOWS THREATS TO 90% OF THE WORLD’S MARINE SPECIES

    “In the high emissions scenario, the global average ocean temperature will increase by three to five degrees Celcius by 2100. Under this scenario, almost 90% of the 25,000 species we assessed were at a “high” or “critical” climate risk. The average species was at risk across 85% of its geographic range. The risk is highest in the subtropical and tropical ecosystems that tend to be biodiversity hotspots and in nearshore ecosystems that support 96% of the global fish catch.”

    https://phys.org/news/2022-10-climate-index-threats-world-marine.html

  17. Bongzombie Brandon just freed the weed

    Biden is pardoning people convicted federally of simple possession, and it looks like starting the process of rescheduling marijuana

      1. yes – but is there a program where you can put in the max size and it will do the compression for you? I have tried to use Paint ( comes with windows) to resize, but often ( not always) the resulting output is just grainy and unreadable.
        Thanks
        WP

        1. Yes, I use paint for that purpose as well. And many of the resized images are not worth sharing.
          One thing is that if you start a new comment rather than as a reply to others, you do get a bigger picture.
          Any suggestions from others on this appreciated.

          1. Hickory / Island boy –
            Thanks – that is exactly the issue that I run into – I sometimes have a pretty interesting image but after compressing it is just a blur and not worth sharing. Glad to hear that it is not just my technical incompetence.
            rgds
            WP

        2. I use the open source ImageMagick ( https://imagemagick.org ) available for Windows, Mac and Linux. The main feature I use is the “resize” option but, it doesn’t tell you how big the resized image will be. You have to save the file and check the filesize. After a while you will get a feel for how much you need to resize by to get below 50k. Depending on the size and amount of detail in the image it may not be possible to get a readable rendition below 50k.

        4. Weekendpeak,

          You can put the image in an excel spreadsheet and then save it with export as image by right clicking on image in spreadsheet. When saving choose gif rather than png and the image will be smaller, also resize the image to about 4 by 6 image when saving. I actually use Libre openoffice rather than excel on a linux OS, I forget what it is for excel, because I haven’t used it for a few years.

          Libreoffice is at link below

          https://www.libreoffice.org/

          Anything under 60 kB should work.

  19. US Harvest Hits Snag as Drought Grounds Mississippi Barges
    “Covered barges full of grain and soy float from U.S. farm country to terminals in the Gulf of Mexico, while crude oil, refined products and imported steel also travel through sections of the waterway. Some 60% of all grain exported from the US is shipped on the Mississippi River through the Port of New Orleans and the Port of South Louisiana, according to the National Park Service.”
    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/us-harvest-hits-snag-as-drought-grounds-mississippi-barges-1.1828605.amp.html

  20. FAO (global) Food Price Index drops for the sixth consecutive month:

    1. It will be interesting to see how long this decline will continue with the rebound in oil prices.

    1. So long as we’re fantasizing, I want mind to be a French maid, rather than a butler.

    1. S, I wish Tesla all the best in selling EVs and energy systems (grid-level and home-level batteries and solar panels/roofs). We need to get off fossil fuels. But Musk’s libertarian mindset and politics leave me cold – but presumably appeal to libertarians?

      1. Elon Musk has publicly supported the propaganda of Russia & China in the last week, seems a little odd. Even for him.

        His specific talking points on Ukraine were… not great; the CCP stuff is WAY out of left field. Telsa is compromised by it’s china ties.

        The alt right red pilled incels are pro Russia; makes ’em feel like Men, I guess.

        Global culture wars: Some far right groups in the U.S. are taking a pro-Russia stance
        https://www.npr.org/2022/01/31/1077064951/global-culture-wars-some-far-right-groups-in-the-u-s-are-taking-a-pro-russia-sta

        A growing number of white nationalists identify with Vladimir Putin
        https://www.npr.org/2022/05/09/1097673785/a-growing-number-of-white-nationalists-have-been-converting-to-orthodox-christia

        1. S, totally agree that many far-right (ie normal Republicans?) seem to support Putin/Russia in their fight against so-called Western decadence. Scary. I hope Russia is defeated before any GOP take of the House/Senate.

          1. It’s a mystery to me why the alt right crowd is going pro-Putin; very post-trump, digging one’s way to the bottom of the Qtard barrel. They are clearly in possession of very vulnerable minds.

            Musk owns to voting Republican and a has spoken publicly of supporting DeSantis, a Qtard, for President; as does Charles Koch, the billionaire CEO of Koch Industries.

            After several years of histrionics over Trump, I’m surprised everyone’s so quiet about Musk & his pro Putin alt right bullshit.

            Why does Putin have superfans among the US right wing?
            https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/01/why-does-putin-have-superfans-among-the-us-right-wing

            1. “They are clearly in possession of very vulnerable minds.”
              Yes. That explains much of human history.
              And yet they are self-righteous, even in retrospect.

            2. Hickory, up until the early/mid 1900´s I don´t think that what the peasants and the average working bee thought mattered very much to the kings/emperors/presidents etc…
              And I still think it doesn´t.

        2. Musk needs to kowtow to Peking, but the Putin stuff makes no sense at all.

          1. Musk’s comments about Taiwan and WeChat was interesting. The Chinese Company that developed WeChat is Tencent, and there was a news story, that Tencent had purchased 5% of Tesla’s shares.

            I believe his comments were an attempt to suck up to a major investor. I wouldn’t be surprised if it turns out that Russian interests were major investors as well hence his comments there.

            Maybe he’s hoping to get some big investors to kick in a few billion if it turns out he’s forced to come up with $44B for his purchase of Twitter.

    2. Teacher: “What is the highest technique you hope to achieve?”

      Bruce Lee: “To have no technique.”

  23. Charles, I’m guessing you’re not King Charles – he seems to be more environmentally aware and concerned than you are…

    1. Yes- its a good example of the things to come.

      If you think about the 30 million acres of prime USA farmland that is devoted to corn ethanol production,
      this is also another facet of the same story.
      This land could be forest or mixed forest/ grassland of very high value to national watershed or wildlife or low intensity mixed species grazing.

      But instead it is mono-culture cropping yielding a small amount net energy liquid fuel for transport combustion.
      And this is at time before oil supply has begun to drop yet…just wait.

      1. If memory serves, back in the 80’s Canada had some tree spiking and a few bits of heavy equipment ended up with a melted engine block secondary to thermite?

        I imagine peeps will get agitated.

        The Secret History of Tree Spiking
        https://archive.iww.org/history/library/Bari/TreeSpiking1/

        https://archive.iww.org/history/library/Bari/TreeSpiking2/

        Seems its still going on
        Tree spiking a criminal act putting workers’ lives at risk
        https://tealjones.com/tree-spiking-lives-at-risk/

  29. Back in my day we just peddled our bikes. Some of us still do. These days you gotta have a bike of the E variety; E stands for technology and having had more waste produced during its manufacture, and it requires a little less time & effort to get around or something.

    Maybe someone will do a study on regular old bikes, to see if they are associated with lower energy emissions; are a form of moderate to vigorous activity; and can cause a modal shift…. but I doubt it. Bikes aren’t “progress” like the E ones.

    Summary of 107 academic studies about e-bikes:
    Use of e-bikes “is associated with lower energy and emissions.”
    E-bike riding “is a form of moderate to vigorous intensity physical activity.”
    E-bikes “can cause a significant modal shift.”
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X22002475?via=ihub

    Call me skeptical; but I don’t see a lot of solutions coming from the techno cornucopian circle jerk crowd; regular old bikes, before the E, is a blind spot.

    It’s pro consumer bullshit; “hey, I found something to buy that shits the bed in a different way and perhaps a little more slowly. There are better options, but this one is sufficient for me because it’s progress.”

    1. Ah – actually in the Netherlands there are lots of incentives to take your electric bicycle to work. Parking is getting restricted more and more, and a big advantage of the electric bike is that you don’t get sweaty in your dress / suit. It also increases the range over which people can realistically replace cars to move around.
      Rgds
      WP

  31. About that terminal deforestation event;

    I can observe fire wood prices being 50-70% higher in my local currency compared to 1 year ago. Coal prices are probably even higher. All these prices are subject to logistical hurdles as moving the vast amount of volumes across long distances are expensive. Still it seems to be a significant amount of slack in the system to adapt to the unfortunate Russia situation. Solar installations going through the roof (literally) in Norway at the moment due to high electricity prices. Not really the place to go to for solar in general, but you could get the panels relatively cheap and then there is a really strong incentive to never be a surplus producer to the grid through roof top (or similar) installations. Probably happening all around Europe at the moment. As for the demand side of fossil fuels generally speaking, there has always been a lot of slack to work on. That is being regulated at state level it seems together with (high) prices in the market as needed.

    With the special energy limitation situation in Europe at the moment, it seems there are several levels of slack in the system on the supply side and on also on the affordability side for the time being. The adaptability shown is pretty impressive so far imho.

  33. Elon Musk Spoke to Putin Before Tweeting Ukraine Peace Plan: Report

    Ian Bremmer wrote that Tesla CEO Musk told him that Putin was “prepared to negotiate,” but only if Crimea remained Russian, if Ukraine accepted a form of permanent neutrality, and Ukraine recognised Russia’s annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/ake44z/elon-musk-vladimir-putin-ukraine

    Musk has denied the report made by Ian Bremmer; see what develops.

    With regards to twitter: what Musk, a guy who became a Republican during the MAGA era, perhaps fails to grasp, is that Twitter is a $40 billion company, it makes 90% of its money selling ads, and Proctor & Gamble will not permit its ads for Pampers to appear next to berserk anti-Semitism content.

    Revenues are gonna tank.

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