Comments not related to oil or natural gas in the thread please, thanks.
84 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum, June 18, 2022”
from late last thread OFM said
“the owners of wind and solar farms are likely to be in some pretty tall cotton…. ”
indicating the solid inflation fighting longterm financial performance of solar and wind installations.
Well, cotton doesn’t get that tall.
More like clear grain hardwood grown on bottomland (outside the flood plain).
For many, they can pay off a solar installation within 10 years and have over 25 years of prepaid-energy production in front of them. Beat that.
Those who got purchase and financing prior to recent inflation and interest rate response will look particular brilliant.
Bill Clinton said he sent federal agents to Area 51 to look for aliens.
Says it was used for testing stealth aircraft, no aliens.
Last week we discussed glyphosate and its potential for harming humans. An EPA report demonstrating the benign effects was referenced. I read the report. So did some federal judges (Two Republican appointees, One Dem). https://www.commondreams.org/newswire/2022/06/17/federal-court-rejects-glyphosate-registration-decision-because-epa-ignored
“In response to CFS and allies’ lawsuit, in May 2021 EPA effectively admitted grave errors in its interim registration and asked the court for permission to re-do the agency’s faulty ecological, cost-benefit, and Endangered Species Act assessments.”
Both of Trump’s appointments to lead the EPA pressed political over scientific decisions. Pruitt left in a cloud of 14 investigations; ethical, financial, conflict of interest and more. His successor, Andy Wheeler was opposed by no less than 69 different medical and scientific organizations for putting political considerations over science and actually creating rules limiting the ability to use scientific data in EPA considerations.
Is there anything that Trump can’t befoul?
https://cleantechnica.com/2022/06/16/alsym-energy-debuts-low-cost-water-based-batteries/
This doesn’t have all the usual click bait tricks in it.
Given that there are a couple of highly placed current and or former academics at Harvard, etc, associated with the company………. I’m willing to think this new battery technology has SOME chance of seeing commercial application.
It might even be a big thing someday.
OFM, check out Ambri. Founded by MIT professor Donald Sadoway as Liquid Metal Battery. He did a great TED talk in 2012 but Ambri has sadly been MIA since then. At least they have continually failed to get product to market (keeping liquids apart at 500C/ 930F is difficult)…
Hopefully Alsym will fare better.
Thanks, will do.
When they get to 10% market share I’ll take notice.
Honda’s are in my opinion at least equal to any other car on the market in terms of quality construction and reliability in the same price class among the legacy automakers.
And now it looks as if Honda is finally putting the pedal to the metal on getting into electric cars.
I wish Uncle Sam would mandate that each car company produce at least a handful of REALLY stripped down subcompact electric cars….. with nothing being mandatory except the safety and pollution gear.
THEN we would know if there’s a market for such cars.
In my personal opinion companies that have drivers doing local deliveries would very likely buy tens of thousands of them.
So would countless people who are just barely able to afford a reliable car to commute to work.
It’s NOT just all about the car itself. I know a hell of a lot of people who live in the countryside and commute BECAUSE they can pay their commuting expenses for a HELL OF A LOT LESS MONEY than they could buy or rent a comparable home in town.
Most of the younger ones would be glad to commute in a two seater fore and aft car if it were CHEAP ENOUGH upfront to buy and cheap enough to run and own.
When you’re young and you have kids in the house you are likely to be perfectly willing to drive a NO FRILLS small car if it means you have a couple of hundred bucks more every month to buy a washing machine, or clothes for the kids, or a bucket of fried chicken once in a while. Save ANOTHER hundred plus on gasoline…… such a car would sell itself……. if you could get a test ride in it.
Hardly anybody in any forum I visit seems to have any REAL idea what it’s like to be a borderline working poor person. Virtually everybody is shall we say, at least moderately COMFORTABLE. This is where they get the idea nobody will buy a cheap car. I LIVE among such people, both the comfortable ones and the ones who pack a peanut butter and jelly sandwich for lunch on a daily basis, and buy most or all of their personal clothes at goodwill so the kids can go to school dressed decently.
The manufacturers deliberately don’t even MAKE a stripped down car, because there wouldn’t be much profit in it, due to low sales.
They won’t sell until somebody starts putting them on dealer lots in significant numbers.
Such a car COULD have air conditioning, etc……. as an extra cost option.
In some other countries, like the biggest one China, very small and basic cars are the biggest sellers.
It will probably be more common here too as the playing field becomes lower and more equal.
Wuling (GM has a stake in this vehicle)
The Wuling Hong Guang MINI EV closed the year 2021 on a high note in China as the absolute best-selling electric vehicle – far above the #2 Tesla Model Y, which topped the electric crossover/SUV category. https://insideevs.com/news/560897/china-wuling-hongguang-sales-2021/
I don’t see a crash and burn economic and ecological scenario as being INEVITABLE, at least not here in the USA and a few other countries, but I do foresee hard times.
And I will repeat myself once again.
IF it’s not possible to continue driving cars of the sizes common today, due to constraints involving raw materials to make batteries, etc………..
Doctors, lawyers and CPA’s, not to mention every body else in suburbia will GLADLY drive a two seat fore and aft mini electric with a fifty mile range battery…….. rather than give up suburbia.
Besides which…… where the hell COULD they go? Surplus housing of even remotely suitable quality doesn’t exist in cities. There’s damned little vacant housing of ANY sort in our cities.
On the other hand the people with money will find ways around making much in the way of sacrifices, because our politicians will make sure there are loopholes they can exploit, such as maybe a luxury tax on a larger car, or an exception for them if they have their own solar panels, etc.
I’m too old by a mile to think I will live to see it, buy a young guy might live to see full size older electric cars sell like old air planes……… which sell for astronomical prices because new ones cost even more.
Grandpa’s Tesla X might be run thru a restoration shop and made better than new twenty five years down the road if there are regulations preventing the sale of NEW vehicles of that size except for commercial purposes.
A likely scenario in the US is for people to gradually get used to smaller vehicles, and to rent bigger vehicles for the occasional times when they need one.
I go to the hardware store a lot, but I don’t purchase big loads of wood or large equipment very often these days, as an example.
It’s strange that you can’t get a cheap new car in America, despite the fact that the lack of a transportation system forces poor people to buy cars.
I wonder if the dealership system is the issue.
Or maybe the lax inspections of older vehicles keeps the prices for used cars down?
I don’t know much about other states, but in Virginia we have a tight inspection system except for grandfathered cars and for emissions systems on older cars statewide.
You must have good glass, wipers, all outside lights, seat belts, tires, brakes, suspension, etc to pass the inspection.
You can drive an old pickup truck without seat belts and with the gas tank in the cab, lol.
But such vehicles are fewer and farther between every year.
“It’s strange that you can’t get a cheap new car in America,”
I disagree.
Rather, it is strange that we all have come to expect that something like a car would be affordable to anyone.
There was a time not too long ago that to have a few mules was a sign of relative prosperity.
We have lived in easy times…our lives made easy by the accumulated benefit of global exploitation of raw nature, of expropriation of resources from the lands of peoples who had lesser weapons, from the labors of hundred of millions of enslaved peoples and other working peoples with no rights, and the one-time flush of combustion of 100 million years of accumulated fossilized solar energy.
Learning to live with less is in store for humanity, no matter who you elect.
I drive a 2007 Yaris hatchback.
The F250 dinosaurs around me give me a chuckle—
A tricked out F250 is the successful working man’s Mercedes or Land Rover.
It has to be a truck for cultural reasons. It has to be an American make for political reasons.
In the event he does buy a status symbol car, it’s apt to be one that’s no good as a daily driver. Too cramped, not enough room for passengers, etc.
Big pickup trucks these days are actually as comfortable as any car……. so long as you’re on reasonably decent pavement.
Putin made UK Prime Minister sit on a chair that was shorter than his.
He then read out a dossier the Russians have collected on Gordon Brown’s life.
He added: “Weakness he will exploit. He’s opportunistic to the nth degree.”
Putin is not dumb. A horrible human..YES
Agreed. Although he perhaps seems to have under estimated many nations interest and willingness to send free kit to Ukraine in order to bleed Russia as much as possible. Sinister stuff. Nobody likes playing home team.
Makes you wonder what Putin has on that list of Republican Senators that kowtowed him on the 4th of July, 2018.
“Oddly, the Republican lawmakers were extending an olive branch to Russia on the same day the GOP-led Senate Intelligence Committee released a report accusing the Kremlin of working during the 2016 election to hurt Hillary Clinton and help Trump win.”
Imagine what the Russians have on Trump ( Money Laundering, Fraud etc). Crimes that could put him away till he’s 6 feet under.
Trump seemed to kiss Putin’s ass.
Trump wanted to mysteriously break up NATO.
Hell, I could build a dossier on Trump.
“Russian forces are likely employing false-flag artillery strikes against infrastructure in Russian-held areas of Donetsk Oblast in order to dissuade pro-Ukrainian sentiment and encourage the mobilization of proxy forces. Open-source Twitter accounts confirmed ISW’s previous assessment that artillery attacks against Donetsk City were likely conducted from within Russian-held territory, refuting accusations made by Russian authorities that blamed Ukrainian troops for the attacks.[19] Such false-flag attacks are likely being propagated by Russian authorities to create hostility toward the Ukrainian military.” https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-19
It could be that one major reason Musk moved his headquarters to Texas is that he thinks ( correctly imo) that he will have a nearly free hand there, compared to California, to expand The Boring Company into a full fledged working giant,as fast as he pleases, as opposed to just having a few “takes forever” demo type projects such as the one in Vegas…… which is really just the first experimental job, sort of the equivalent thing to Ford’s Model T.
Watching people almost succeed at stumbling across “railways” again as a solution to crappy transportation options should be a national sport in America.
“What if we had electric cars, but they drove themselves along official tracks?”
Ukraine’s anti fascist football hooligans fighting the Russian invasion
Happy winter solstice from the southern hemisphere. Time for the days to get longer again 🙂 I hope people in the northern hemisphere are enjoying your midsummer.
I have had a couple of glasses of sparkling wine to celebrate, so I can’t help commenting on the EV range discussion over on the oil thread. Considering that not much more more than 100 years ago, for the typical individual, to travel more than 25 miles over land in a day was only possible using a train or by swapping horses, it’s amazing we have such range anxiety.
I guess it shows it doesn’t take too long for people’s expectations to change. That’s a positive for future generations, lol.
Yep Phil-
people have a hell of a lot of readjusting to do.
“I guess it shows it doesn’t take too long for people’s expectations to change. That’s a positive for future generations, lol.”
When I left the farm for a dormitory, it wasn’t hard for me…….. because the farm wasn’t far away.
And by the time I was out of school, I was into the social life associated with the city, and didn’t really mind having to LOOK for a place to park my car, or PAY to simply sit down outside my apartment except when visiting friends, lol.
I went from living on big acres to a room , back and forth, a couple of times, and never had an apartment even a third as big as the old farmhouse.
Yes, we DO adjust.
And when the time comes, we forget our old circumstances very quickly indeed………. unless there’s a political movement afoot to keep us scared or mad or just unhappy.
All this bullshit about range and electric cars……… well, one day we will collectively forget it.
If they could buy one CHEAP, half the working people I know NOW would buy a new one hundred mile range electric car with a good warranty to use as their commuter and chore vehicle. By cheap I mean at about the same price as the cheapest Japanese import model, or the cheapest domestic GM model.
The arithmetic for them would be simple. The existing car they have would last twice, maybe three times as many years, due to being driven so much less, plus the savings on gasoline would make it a no brainer.
2012 Nissan Leaf with 60k on clock for about 11k, only 73 miles of range when new. In 2016 the Leaf range increased to 107 miles, cheapest 2016 Leaf I find in a random VA zip code(22215) is about 16 k (64k miles). Note the 2016 Leaf S only has 84 miles of range, the SV and SL models have the longer range and range deteriorates over time so a model that has 107 miles when new might be down to 90 miles or so after 60k miles.
I wonder how serious a runaway reactor accident would be in terms of a SHIP sized reactor. For sure it would be a firecracker instead of a stick of dynamite compared to a utility sized nuke, and it would be very unlikely that there’s any spent fuel on board, because space on ships isn’t wasted for long term storage of useless or dangerous materials……. except maybe if it were to turn out to be impossible to off load spent fuel for political reasons.
It’s my impression that Fukushima was and is three or four times as bad as otherwise, because the spent fuel was on site and worse than that, right next to the reactors.
But I’m hoping wind and solar power win out for desalinization. The great thing about that is that a reservoir of fresh water is essentially the same thing as a de facto battery….. making it practical and cheap to use wind and solar juice. No intermittency problem, if the capital cost of the desalinization plant isn’t too high.
These are so hilariously inadequate. Nothing is replacing the water that, especially in most of the western parts of the USA, is basically gone and with it the cities and economies of said states that rely on it (I’m looking at you, California, Texas, Arizona and Nevada).
The fact that widespread nuclear desal (never been a thing, likely never will be) is even being proposed is indicative of people missing the wood for the trees and trying to keep things that are unsustainable going.
U.S. DOE Announces Breakthrough in Residential Cold Climate Heat Pump Technology-
” With this newest prototype, Lennox has answered that call,” said U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer M. Granholm-
“DOE launched the CCHP Technology Challenge in 2021 to accelerate development and commercialization of next-generation heat pumps by supporting American innovation and manufacturing. Lennox International, headquartered in Richardson, Texas, developed the first prototype that achieved the Technology Challenge’s standards about a year ahead of schedule. The prototype delivers 100% heating at 5°F at double the efficiency, and 70% to 80% heating at -5°F and -10°F. DOE’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory validated the performance and efficiency of Lennox’s prototype.”
It is a good thing that J.Granholm puts her reputation on the line to say progress is made to make heat pumps more efficient. Natural gas is not exactly cheap in Europe at the moment, so better heat pumps would not be bad in any way. There is a lot of activity going on to make a lot of “super” insulated new apartments in Norway. Together with a heat pump or central heating, the electricity consumption takes a huge dive. On purpose of course; a part of the Norwegian government effort to make infrastructure spending that lasts for a while.
“In conclusion, temperatures could rise strongly in the Arctic soon, due to sea ice loss in combination with an upcoming El Niño and a peak in sunspots, with the potential to drive humans extinct as early as in 2025, while temperatures would continue to skyrocket in 2026, making it in many respects rather futile to speculate about what will happen beyond 2026. At the same time, the right thing to do now is to help avoid the worst things from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.” http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/06/arctic-sea-ice-june-2022-why-situation-is-so-dangerous.html?m=1
Interesting article. However, human extinction by 2025 is not gonna happen. I’ll be around for sure. So will many others.
I assume the author means crop failure and famine secondary to climate change will be the cause of human extinction. If not, then I don’t understand what they’re getting at with the human extinction hypothesis.
I feel this is a more nuanced take.
“Yield volatility is gonna go through the roof”
Climate Change and Global Food Security: Prof David Battisti https://youtu.be/YToMoNPwTFc?t=45m36s
I feel that crop failure and famine will occur in the near future. It’ll knock us down to size, and then some. We’ll eat the song birds from the trees, but I don’t predict an extinction over it. We’re far too adaptable.
FWIW- if I measure out on the map an area around my retreat that is roughly twice the size of Switzerland, and that puts me roughly in the center, then it will only have about a 1/4 million people in it. We up here in the remote corners of the PNW could live on hydropower, bushmeat, goats/chickens and proud gardeners for quite some time. 2025 is bullshit.
We up here in the remote corners of the PNW could live on hydropower, bushmeat, goats/chickens and proud gardeners for quite some time. 2025 is bullshit.
You make the broad assumption that people forced out of California and Texas by heat and drought won’t clear-cut those mountains for fuel and eat what’s left of the mega-fauna like a hoard of really big locusts.
I agree about 2025 being too soon, but when TSHTF, I doubt you’ll be spared.
“You make the broad assumption that people forced out of California and Texas by heat and drought won’t clear-cut those mountains for fuel and eat what’s left of the mega-fauna like a hoard of really big locusts.”
It’s been considered. I won’t be spared. I’ll be prepared. For a while the exodus to the PNW will be good for property values; then it’ll get to be too much; then there will be political conflict & violence; and then the implications of collapse will have reached us. I’d say we up in the PNW will be one of the last dominoes to fall. There’ll likely be a population bottleneck that selects via the mechanism of requiring many to relocate and compete for land and resources in an already inhabited area. When SHTF many will die in place (much of South Asia, and perhaps most low income elderly Texans); some will try and relocate (Central Americans and Mexicans will head north); some will succeed; some will fail https://tinyurl.com/2p8zypma
The threat to most communities will come from the people who are between them and the equator.
On the Irrelevance of Ranking Militaries
“The war in Ukraine surprised many commentors and analysts. There are notably two reasons why. The first one is the mere fact that Russia openly invaded and attacked Ukrainian territory which was not traditionally considered “pro-Russian.” The second one is the fact that the Russian military, which had been typically considered as the second most powerful military in the world, got bogged down, struggled even to make light advances, and eventually got repulsed, being forced to limit its operations to southeastern and eastern Ukraine.” https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/irrelevance-ranking-militaries
I haven’t yet hit a pay wall at Wind Power Monthly.
There’s obviously a strong pro wind bias, but it’s nevertheless a great source of detailed wind industry news.
This may be unpopular with some, but I suggest it is just acknowledging the inevitable-
It would be folly for the US to use military means to protect Taiwan from ‘unification with the mainland’.
And the US no longer has the economic bargaining power to fight China economically if they get serious- we need them and their products.
It is high time to offer Taiwan citizens and companies an open gate to migrate here, prior to the ‘helicopter on the roof moment’
We’d be lucky to get the human capital, the cultural infusion and the innovative energy that Taiwan brings to the table.
THE EU IS BUYING MORE SOUTH AFRICAN COAL THAN EVER
Due to the fear that Russia may cut off natural gas supply going into the harsh winter months, Europe has begun what is being referred to as a “bitter and reluctant return to coal.” But even before this turn of events, the EU had already been ramping up coal imports from other countries to prepare for an exit from Russian energy markets. In fact, EU countries have been importing coal in record numbers from South Africa.
I’m interested in the opinions of any regulars, or anybody, actually, who have given a good bit of thought as to just how fast we would need to switch to electric cars and trucks in order to maintain our Yankee economy without having to be net oil importers.
This obviously depends to a very large extent on how well our own domestic production holds up of course.
40 years ago
Hah, my first reaction was something similar (40 years past)
couple thoughts
-the international trade in oil will be declining from peak pretty quickly as this decade unfolds so uncertain how much will be available to purchase for importation. Better keep good relations with Canada
-the us will likely see a considerable decline in total land miles traveled as gas unaffordability bites hard on optional travel
-ability to switch to electric will be tough for a big portion of the driving public due to cost
-many important parts of the economy can be maintained without importation through this decade and perhaps next [depending how you define important]
-I think its unlikely that the economy will be maintained in a similar manner to the past growth century. the sooner we ration petrol, the longer the average person will still get some.
– get your flying and rv trips in now while the price of fuel is still so cheap
The US has been a net importer of oil almost every year since 1945.
Good point.
I tried to clarify the issue of “peaking” for the folks at a reputable website:
Hey MikeB, cool blog. Thx for the tip. I see some very interesting comments, and commenters, on that site.
PS- who pissed in MADELINE’s cornflakes, HB?
Steven Novella is “wicked smaht,” as we say in Maine, and I love the skeptics movement, but they tend toward rose-colored glasses and cornucopianism and “green” shit.
I quite like Simon Michaux’s comment; “I think we’re in trouble, but I no longer discuss it with people because they don’t want to hear about it. The idea that we would be so stupid as to wait until oil supply declines to work out “alternatives” is too shocking to contemplate.”
From the Atlantic:
[ Podhorzer] views the Trump faction that now dominates the Republican Party … as the U.S. equivalent to the authoritarian parties in places such as Hungary and Venezuela. It is a multipronged, fundamentally antidemocratic movement that has built a solidifying base of institutional support through conservative media networks, evangelical churches, wealthy Republican donors, GOP elected officials, paramilitary white-nationalist groups, and a mass public following. And it is determined to impose its policy and social vision on the entire country—with or without majority support. “The structural attacks on our institutions that paved the way for Trump’s candidacy will continue to progress,” Podhorzer argues, “with or without him at the helm.”
“It seems unlikely that the Trump-era Republicans installing the policy priorities of their preponderantly white and Christian coalition across the red states will be satisfied just setting the rules in the places now under their control. Podhorzer…believes that the MAGA movement’s long-term goal is to tilt the electoral rules in enough states to make winning Congress or the White House almost impossible for Democrats. Then, with support from the GOP-appointed majority on the Supreme Court, Republicans could impose red-state values and programs nationwide, even if most Americans oppose them. The “MAGA movement is not stopping at the borders of the states it already controls,” Podhorzer writes. “It seeks to conquer as much territory as possible by any means possible.”
The article is spot on.
Thanks John
We have already seen that the Autocratic Supremacists [formerly Republican party] will take any measure to undercut the democratic process in order to favor their control, regardless of laws or constitution. Trump normalized the behavior, even more than Nixon- he didn’t even try to hide his intent. And his voters are fine with that. They admire it, as if they have never even heard of Nazism or Stalin.
Let’s just be thankful that fascist lying morally bankrupt HRC didn’t get elected.
Thank GOD for those who are so self-righteous, they can’t see the difference between Republicans and Democrats and vote useless.
Mikey B, their coming for you next. Don’t expect your idiot Susan Collins to protect you. I think your comment above is very weak for a college English instructor and sad your looking for a pat on the back. A D- would be a gift. Freedom isn’t free and your a quieter. Sorry about your future. The Nazis are here.
The real reason Clinton was targeted by the Putin propaganda that you have swallowed hook line and sinker is that he blamed her for the gruesome death of Qaddafi, which he figures is probably how he will go as well.
Putin targeted Clinton to elect Trump in the name of anti-democracy. That line was sarcasm pointed at the naive Trumpsters who post here. They know who they are. Putin also supported Jill Stein to divide and conquer the Democrats. Today in America women became second class citizens.
Putin has been following Peak Oil, like the people have on this site.
He couldn’t know when it would happen exactly, just like the people on this site.
He wanted Trump in office because he knew that dumb ass would make things worse.
General Jim Mattis released this document. Search for Peak Oil
General Jim Mattis was Secretary of Defense under Trump
Trump said he heard scary stuff in one of his security briefings and then STOPPED ATTENDING THEM.
General Jim Mattis resigned.
I speculate (pure speculation) General Mattis found out trump was disinterested in the security of the country and did not want his name associated with that.
Putin knew that she was was going to stand up strong to his bullying, and that Trump was a weakling in comparison.
Regardless of whatever you may think about those two.
That’s right, and if America doesn’t pull their heads out of their ass pretty soon. There going to lose the little democracy they have.
Sounds like one of those ‘Vote Blue No Matter Who’ fanatics.
Sounds like one of those ‘Vote Blue No Matter Who’ fanatics.
Good god, almighty, just what the hell do you think the MAGA crowd is doing. Those fucking idiots would vote for an ignorant Trumpite while screaming “Stop the Steal” before they would vote for the most qualified candidate in America.
Don’t get me wrong, All republicans are not ignorant Trumpites, only about 90% of them. (It used to be 80% but half of the reasonable Republicans, because of Trump, are now Democrats.) Trump tried to destroy Democracy. He is a lying mob boss type and that is just so damn obvious that only someone truly blind in the brain would be unable to see that.
Yes, goddammit, vote blue no matter who or else you will get another Trump or, Majorie Taylor Green, Matt Gates, Mo Brooks, Ted Cruz, Ron Johnson, Lauren Bobart, Madison Cawthorn, or one of the other MAGA idiots. How can anyone vote to put that crowd in charge of the US Government? And if you vote for any Republican then you are voting for those idiots to be in the majority of congress.
Some people prefer the easy path of not picking either the democrat or the republican.
Sure its often the lesser of two bad choices,
but for them they find it easier to blame everyone else,
rather than realizing that they are contributing to the outcome just as much as anyone else.
Me, I always prioritize what i consider to be the choice that keeps us farthest from a tyrannical state above all else -tyranny by the state, by the church, and by the company.
In my lifetime that has always been the Democrat, except once in awhile when there has been an incompetent person put on the ballot. Regarding competency- the republicans have absolutely no advantage over democrats in this regard in the decades I’ve been watching.
“Mikey B, their coming for you next. Don’t expect your idiot Susan Collins to protect you. I think your comment above is very weak for a college English instructor and sad your looking for a pat on the back. A D- would be a gift. Freedom isn’t free and your a quieter. Sorry about your future. The Nazis are here.
Er. . .
“Mikey B, they’re coming for you next . . . . I think your comment above is very weak for a college English instructor and sad you’re looking for a pat on a back . . . . Freedom isn’t free and you’re a quitter. . . .
Is that what you meant to say?
Stuff it, lady.
That’s right, you’re a quitter. Mike Bendzela paraphrase- Poor me, I’ve been an environmentalists for so long and know one listens to me. People don’t change. So I don’t care anymore. But don’t forget to give me a pat on the back for writing about peak oil on another blog. Yada yada yada
Really girl friend, because the religious right isn’t going to have any of your BS however you spell it. Worrying about the grammar doesn’t seem to get your point across. Weak, weak, weak. You need to learn how to write and get people’s attention. Your house is burning down and your worried about the cost of water to put it out. You should be marching on Collins office and leave the grammar check to Google and Microsoft.
First they came for the Communists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Communist
Then they came for the Socialists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Socialist
Then they came for the trade unionists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a trade unionist
Then they came for the Jews
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Jew
Then they came for me
And there was no one left
To speak out for me
BTW, you ask for comments. You just didn’t like what you heard.
“Blood alone moves the wheels of history.”
— Benito Mussolini
Speaking of theocracy, the Supreme Court has just overturned Roe v Wade.
“Abortion will soon be banned across much of red-state America”.
Minority rule by the theocrats…
Yeah, soon contraceptives will be banned in all red states. It makes me cry because I live in a red state, Alabama. And if that trend continues then soon prayer and bible study will be required in all public schools. All who disagree will be deemed agents of the Devil and be burned at the stake.
Did you turn your clocks back 50 years last night?
CURRENT GLOBAL EFFORTS ARE INSUFFICIENT TO LIMIT WARMING TO 1.5°C
A pair of climate scientists at Concordia University has concluded that despite efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions by many nations, the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the middle of this century will not be met. Their paper was published in the journal Science
The good news, Mother Earth has immense coal reserves; the bad news, well, we all know the bad news.
CHINESE PREMIER CALLS FOR MORE COAL PRODUCTION AS ELECTRICITY DEMAND SOARS
“The way that AC [air conditioning] is used, as soon as it gets warm, everyone turns theirs on … putting huge strain on the grid, which means that either there are power cuts or peak power is switched on, and peak power is run by coal plants. It’s a catch-22: it gets warm, so you turn on your AC, which increases global temps even further. So, China has increased coal production to address a rising demand for cooling, but it’s a short-term fix which has long-term implications.”
Tks survivalist for the link . I have it bookmarked but check on it only now and then because posts are every 3 -4 months apart . Merci ,for reminding me .
SURVIVALIST —
From your post: “During the K-T extinction, the immediate impact of the asteroid killed only the large animals. It took thousands of years for the consequent climate change to kill off smaller organisms. Current trends are exponentially faster, not only with anthropogenic climate disruption incinerating the biosphere within a lifetime but also by a multi-pronged attack from other human activities such as chemical and plastic pollution, the global spread of invasive species, and humanity’s massive overdraw on the planet’s resources.”
from late last thread OFM said
“the owners of wind and solar farms are likely to be in some pretty tall cotton…. ”
indicating the solid inflation fighting longterm financial performance of solar and wind installations.
Well, cotton doesn’t get that tall.
More like clear grain hardwood grown on bottomland (outside the flood plain).
For many, they can pay off a solar installation within 10 years and have over 25 years of prepaid-energy production in front of them. Beat that.
Those who got purchase and financing prior to recent inflation and interest rate response will look particular brilliant.
OT, but interesting:
https://geographicinsights.iq.harvard.edu/CongressionalDistrict-LifeExpectancy
Darwin at work?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10929821/Bill-Clinton-admits-sent-federal-agents-Area-51-aliens.html
off topic, but interesting (IMO)
Bill Clinton said he sent federal agents to Area 51 to look for aliens.
Says it was used for testing stealth aircraft, no aliens.
Last week we discussed glyphosate and its potential for harming humans. An EPA report demonstrating the benign effects was referenced. I read the report. So did some federal judges (Two Republican appointees, One Dem).
https://www.commondreams.org/newswire/2022/06/17/federal-court-rejects-glyphosate-registration-decision-because-epa-ignored
“In response to CFS and allies’ lawsuit, in May 2021 EPA effectively admitted grave errors in its interim registration and asked the court for permission to re-do the agency’s faulty ecological, cost-benefit, and Endangered Species Act assessments.”
Both of Trump’s appointments to lead the EPA pressed political over scientific decisions. Pruitt left in a cloud of 14 investigations; ethical, financial, conflict of interest and more. His successor, Andy Wheeler was opposed by no less than 69 different medical and scientific organizations for putting political considerations over science and actually creating rules limiting the ability to use scientific data in EPA considerations.
Is there anything that Trump can’t befoul?
https://cleantechnica.com/2022/06/16/alsym-energy-debuts-low-cost-water-based-batteries/
This doesn’t have all the usual click bait tricks in it.
Given that there are a couple of highly placed current and or former academics at Harvard, etc, associated with the company………. I’m willing to think this new battery technology has SOME chance of seeing commercial application.
It might even be a big thing someday.
OFM, check out Ambri. Founded by MIT professor Donald Sadoway as Liquid Metal Battery. He did a great TED talk in 2012 but Ambri has sadly been MIA since then. At least they have continually failed to get product to market (keeping liquids apart at 500C/ 930F is difficult)…
Hopefully Alsym will fare better.
Thanks, will do.
When they get to 10% market share I’ll take notice.
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/honda-and-sony-ev-team-takes-aim-at-tesla
Honda’s are in my opinion at least equal to any other car on the market in terms of quality construction and reliability in the same price class among the legacy automakers.
And now it looks as if Honda is finally putting the pedal to the metal on getting into electric cars.
I wish Uncle Sam would mandate that each car company produce at least a handful of REALLY stripped down subcompact electric cars….. with nothing being mandatory except the safety and pollution gear.
THEN we would know if there’s a market for such cars.
In my personal opinion companies that have drivers doing local deliveries would very likely buy tens of thousands of them.
So would countless people who are just barely able to afford a reliable car to commute to work.
It’s NOT just all about the car itself. I know a hell of a lot of people who live in the countryside and commute BECAUSE they can pay their commuting expenses for a HELL OF A LOT LESS MONEY than they could buy or rent a comparable home in town.
Most of the younger ones would be glad to commute in a two seater fore and aft car if it were CHEAP ENOUGH upfront to buy and cheap enough to run and own.
When you’re young and you have kids in the house you are likely to be perfectly willing to drive a NO FRILLS small car if it means you have a couple of hundred bucks more every month to buy a washing machine, or clothes for the kids, or a bucket of fried chicken once in a while. Save ANOTHER hundred plus on gasoline…… such a car would sell itself……. if you could get a test ride in it.
Hardly anybody in any forum I visit seems to have any REAL idea what it’s like to be a borderline working poor person. Virtually everybody is shall we say, at least moderately COMFORTABLE. This is where they get the idea nobody will buy a cheap car. I LIVE among such people, both the comfortable ones and the ones who pack a peanut butter and jelly sandwich for lunch on a daily basis, and buy most or all of their personal clothes at goodwill so the kids can go to school dressed decently.
The manufacturers deliberately don’t even MAKE a stripped down car, because there wouldn’t be much profit in it, due to low sales.
They won’t sell until somebody starts putting them on dealer lots in significant numbers.
Such a car COULD have air conditioning, etc……. as an extra cost option.
In some other countries, like the biggest one China, very small and basic cars are the biggest sellers.
It will probably be more common here too as the playing field becomes lower and more equal.
Wuling (GM has a stake in this vehicle)
The Wuling Hong Guang MINI EV closed the year 2021 on a high note in China as the absolute best-selling electric vehicle – far above the #2 Tesla Model Y, which topped the electric crossover/SUV category.
https://insideevs.com/news/560897/china-wuling-hongguang-sales-2021/
I don’t see a crash and burn economic and ecological scenario as being INEVITABLE, at least not here in the USA and a few other countries, but I do foresee hard times.
And I will repeat myself once again.
IF it’s not possible to continue driving cars of the sizes common today, due to constraints involving raw materials to make batteries, etc………..
Doctors, lawyers and CPA’s, not to mention every body else in suburbia will GLADLY drive a two seat fore and aft mini electric with a fifty mile range battery…….. rather than give up suburbia.
Besides which…… where the hell COULD they go? Surplus housing of even remotely suitable quality doesn’t exist in cities. There’s damned little vacant housing of ANY sort in our cities.
On the other hand the people with money will find ways around making much in the way of sacrifices, because our politicians will make sure there are loopholes they can exploit, such as maybe a luxury tax on a larger car, or an exception for them if they have their own solar panels, etc.
I’m too old by a mile to think I will live to see it, buy a young guy might live to see full size older electric cars sell like old air planes……… which sell for astronomical prices because new ones cost even more.
Grandpa’s Tesla X might be run thru a restoration shop and made better than new twenty five years down the road if there are regulations preventing the sale of NEW vehicles of that size except for commercial purposes.
A likely scenario in the US is for people to gradually get used to smaller vehicles, and to rent bigger vehicles for the occasional times when they need one.
I go to the hardware store a lot, but I don’t purchase big loads of wood or large equipment very often these days, as an example.
It’s strange that you can’t get a cheap new car in America, despite the fact that the lack of a transportation system forces poor people to buy cars.
I wonder if the dealership system is the issue.
Or maybe the lax inspections of older vehicles keeps the prices for used cars down?
I don’t know much about other states, but in Virginia we have a tight inspection system except for grandfathered cars and for emissions systems on older cars statewide.
You must have good glass, wipers, all outside lights, seat belts, tires, brakes, suspension, etc to pass the inspection.
You can drive an old pickup truck without seat belts and with the gas tank in the cab, lol.
But such vehicles are fewer and farther between every year.
“It’s strange that you can’t get a cheap new car in America,”
I disagree.
Rather, it is strange that we all have come to expect that something like a car would be affordable to anyone.
There was a time not too long ago that to have a few mules was a sign of relative prosperity.
We have lived in easy times…our lives made easy by the accumulated benefit of global exploitation of raw nature, of expropriation of resources from the lands of peoples who had lesser weapons, from the labors of hundred of millions of enslaved peoples and other working peoples with no rights, and the one-time flush of combustion of 100 million years of accumulated fossilized solar energy.
Learning to live with less is in store for humanity, no matter who you elect.
I drive a 2007 Yaris hatchback.
The F250 dinosaurs around me give me a chuckle—
A tricked out F250 is the successful working man’s Mercedes or Land Rover.
It has to be a truck for cultural reasons. It has to be an American make for political reasons.
In the event he does buy a status symbol car, it’s apt to be one that’s no good as a daily driver. Too cramped, not enough room for passengers, etc.
Big pickup trucks these days are actually as comfortable as any car……. so long as you’re on reasonably decent pavement.
lol!!!!!
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18939545/vladimir-putin-gordon-brown/
Putin made UK Prime Minister sit on a chair that was shorter than his.
He then read out a dossier the Russians have collected on Gordon Brown’s life.
He added: “Weakness he will exploit. He’s opportunistic to the nth degree.”
Putin is not dumb. A horrible human..YES
Agreed. Although he perhaps seems to have under estimated many nations interest and willingness to send free kit to Ukraine in order to bleed Russia as much as possible. Sinister stuff. Nobody likes playing home team.
Makes you wonder what Putin has on that list of Republican Senators that kowtowed him on the 4th of July, 2018.
https://theweek.com/speedreads/783043/gop-senator-posted-photos-himself-enjoying-dcs-july-4th-fireworks-hes-supposed-russia
Does anyone still remember this bizarre episode?
“Oddly, the Republican lawmakers were extending an olive branch to Russia on the same day the GOP-led Senate Intelligence Committee released a report accusing the Kremlin of working during the 2016 election to hurt Hillary Clinton and help Trump win.”
Imagine what the Russians have on Trump ( Money Laundering, Fraud etc). Crimes that could put him away till he’s 6 feet under.
Trump seemed to kiss Putin’s ass.
Trump wanted to mysteriously break up NATO.
Hell, I could build a dossier on Trump.
“Russian forces are likely employing false-flag artillery strikes against infrastructure in Russian-held areas of Donetsk Oblast in order to dissuade pro-Ukrainian sentiment and encourage the mobilization of proxy forces. Open-source Twitter accounts confirmed ISW’s previous assessment that artillery attacks against Donetsk City were likely conducted from within Russian-held territory, refuting accusations made by Russian authorities that blamed Ukrainian troops for the attacks.[19] Such false-flag attacks are likely being propagated by Russian authorities to create hostility toward the Ukrainian military.”
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-19
I suppose where there’s this much smoke there’s at least SOME fire, lol.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qzQ4D14NEI
It could be that one major reason Musk moved his headquarters to Texas is that he thinks ( correctly imo) that he will have a nearly free hand there, compared to California, to expand The Boring Company into a full fledged working giant,as fast as he pleases, as opposed to just having a few “takes forever” demo type projects such as the one in Vegas…… which is really just the first experimental job, sort of the equivalent thing to Ford’s Model T.
Watching people almost succeed at stumbling across “railways” again as a solution to crappy transportation options should be a national sport in America.
“What if we had electric cars, but they drove themselves along official tracks?”
Ukraine’s anti fascist football hooligans fighting the Russian invasion
https://youtu.be/nsodbPkjO3c
How Russia could collapse (again)
https://youtu.be/YzCoJXxb5xI
Happy winter solstice from the southern hemisphere. Time for the days to get longer again 🙂 I hope people in the northern hemisphere are enjoying your midsummer.
I have had a couple of glasses of sparkling wine to celebrate, so I can’t help commenting on the EV range discussion over on the oil thread. Considering that not much more more than 100 years ago, for the typical individual, to travel more than 25 miles over land in a day was only possible using a train or by swapping horses, it’s amazing we have such range anxiety.
I guess it shows it doesn’t take too long for people’s expectations to change. That’s a positive for future generations, lol.
Yep Phil-
people have a hell of a lot of readjusting to do.
“I guess it shows it doesn’t take too long for people’s expectations to change. That’s a positive for future generations, lol.”
When I left the farm for a dormitory, it wasn’t hard for me…….. because the farm wasn’t far away.
And by the time I was out of school, I was into the social life associated with the city, and didn’t really mind having to LOOK for a place to park my car, or PAY to simply sit down outside my apartment except when visiting friends, lol.
I went from living on big acres to a room , back and forth, a couple of times, and never had an apartment even a third as big as the old farmhouse.
Yes, we DO adjust.
And when the time comes, we forget our old circumstances very quickly indeed………. unless there’s a political movement afoot to keep us scared or mad or just unhappy.
All this bullshit about range and electric cars……… well, one day we will collectively forget it.
If they could buy one CHEAP, half the working people I know NOW would buy a new one hundred mile range electric car with a good warranty to use as their commuter and chore vehicle. By cheap I mean at about the same price as the cheapest Japanese import model, or the cheapest domestic GM model.
The arithmetic for them would be simple. The existing car they have would last twice, maybe three times as many years, due to being driven so much less, plus the savings on gasoline would make it a no brainer.
2012 Nissan Leaf with 60k on clock for about 11k, only 73 miles of range when new. In 2016 the Leaf range increased to 107 miles, cheapest 2016 Leaf I find in a random VA zip code(22215) is about 16 k (64k miles). Note the 2016 Leaf S only has 84 miles of range, the SV and SL models have the longer range and range deteriorates over time so a model that has 107 miles when new might be down to 90 miles or so after 60k miles.
https://www.cars.com/shopping/results/?dealer_id=&keyword=&list_price_max=&list_price_min=&makes%5B%5D=nissan&maximum_distance=500&mileage_max=&models%5B%5D=nissan-leaf&page_size=20&sort=best_match_desc&stock_type=used&year_max=2017&year_min=2016&zip=22215
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61483491
Nuclear desalinization…….
I wonder how serious a runaway reactor accident would be in terms of a SHIP sized reactor. For sure it would be a firecracker instead of a stick of dynamite compared to a utility sized nuke, and it would be very unlikely that there’s any spent fuel on board, because space on ships isn’t wasted for long term storage of useless or dangerous materials……. except maybe if it were to turn out to be impossible to off load spent fuel for political reasons.
It’s my impression that Fukushima was and is three or four times as bad as otherwise, because the spent fuel was on site and worse than that, right next to the reactors.
But I’m hoping wind and solar power win out for desalinization. The great thing about that is that a reservoir of fresh water is essentially the same thing as a de facto battery….. making it practical and cheap to use wind and solar juice. No intermittency problem, if the capital cost of the desalinization plant isn’t too high.
These are so hilariously inadequate. Nothing is replacing the water that, especially in most of the western parts of the USA, is basically gone and with it the cities and economies of said states that rely on it (I’m looking at you, California, Texas, Arizona and Nevada).
The fact that widespread nuclear desal (never been a thing, likely never will be) is even being proposed is indicative of people missing the wood for the trees and trying to keep things that are unsustainable going.
U.S. DOE Announces Breakthrough in Residential Cold Climate Heat Pump Technology-
” With this newest prototype, Lennox has answered that call,” said U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer M. Granholm-
“DOE launched the CCHP Technology Challenge in 2021 to accelerate development and commercialization of next-generation heat pumps by supporting American innovation and manufacturing. Lennox International, headquartered in Richardson, Texas, developed the first prototype that achieved the Technology Challenge’s standards about a year ahead of schedule. The prototype delivers 100% heating at 5°F at double the efficiency, and 70% to 80% heating at -5°F and -10°F. DOE’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory validated the performance and efficiency of Lennox’s prototype.”
https://cleantechnica.com/2022/06/21/u-s-doe-announces-breakthrough-in-residential-cold-climate-heat-pump-technology/
It is a good thing that J.Granholm puts her reputation on the line to say progress is made to make heat pumps more efficient. Natural gas is not exactly cheap in Europe at the moment, so better heat pumps would not be bad in any way. There is a lot of activity going on to make a lot of “super” insulated new apartments in Norway. Together with a heat pump or central heating, the electricity consumption takes a huge dive. On purpose of course; a part of the Norwegian government effort to make infrastructure spending that lasts for a while.
“In conclusion, temperatures could rise strongly in the Arctic soon, due to sea ice loss in combination with an upcoming El Niño and a peak in sunspots, with the potential to drive humans extinct as early as in 2025, while temperatures would continue to skyrocket in 2026, making it in many respects rather futile to speculate about what will happen beyond 2026. At the same time, the right thing to do now is to help avoid the worst things from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.”
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/06/arctic-sea-ice-june-2022-why-situation-is-so-dangerous.html?m=1
Interesting article. However, human extinction by 2025 is not gonna happen. I’ll be around for sure. So will many others.
I assume the author means crop failure and famine secondary to climate change will be the cause of human extinction. If not, then I don’t understand what they’re getting at with the human extinction hypothesis.
I feel this is a more nuanced take.
“Yield volatility is gonna go through the roof”
Climate Change and Global Food Security: Prof David Battisti
https://youtu.be/YToMoNPwTFc?t=45m36s
I feel that crop failure and famine will occur in the near future. It’ll knock us down to size, and then some. We’ll eat the song birds from the trees, but I don’t predict an extinction over it. We’re far too adaptable.
FWIW- if I measure out on the map an area around my retreat that is roughly twice the size of Switzerland, and that puts me roughly in the center, then it will only have about a 1/4 million people in it. We up here in the remote corners of the PNW could live on hydropower, bushmeat, goats/chickens and proud gardeners for quite some time. 2025 is bullshit.
We up here in the remote corners of the PNW could live on hydropower, bushmeat, goats/chickens and proud gardeners for quite some time. 2025 is bullshit.
You make the broad assumption that people forced out of California and Texas by heat and drought won’t clear-cut those mountains for fuel and eat what’s left of the mega-fauna like a hoard of really big locusts.
I agree about 2025 being too soon, but when TSHTF, I doubt you’ll be spared.
“You make the broad assumption that people forced out of California and Texas by heat and drought won’t clear-cut those mountains for fuel and eat what’s left of the mega-fauna like a hoard of really big locusts.”
It’s been considered. I won’t be spared. I’ll be prepared. For a while the exodus to the PNW will be good for property values; then it’ll get to be too much; then there will be political conflict & violence; and then the implications of collapse will have reached us. I’d say we up in the PNW will be one of the last dominoes to fall. There’ll likely be a population bottleneck that selects via the mechanism of requiring many to relocate and compete for land and resources in an already inhabited area. When SHTF many will die in place (much of South Asia, and perhaps most low income elderly Texans); some will try and relocate (Central Americans and Mexicans will head north); some will succeed; some will fail https://tinyurl.com/2p8zypma
The threat to most communities will come from the people who are between them and the equator.
“In a mountainous environment, the terrain normally favors the defender”
https://irp.fas.org/doddir/army/fm3-97-6.pdf
Timber Wars
https://www.opb.org/show/timberwars/
Climate Wars
Part 1- https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1475819433
Part 2- https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1475824664
Part 3- https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1475829417
Arctic-news.blogspot has some ‘eccentric’ interpretations. The 2025 extinction of humanity is only one of them.
Kunstlercast 359 features COVIDiot Mattias Desmet. Dudes taking a trip without even leaving the farm these days.
Does “Mass Formation Psychosis” Really Exist?
https://www.psychologytoday.com/ca/blog/psych-unseen/202201/does-mass-formation-psychosis-really-exist?amp
It seems a few from the peak oil/collapse/overshoot ‘community’, and I use that word lightly, have moved on to greener pastures.
Cool article, if you’re into niche details and geolocating wankers.
Meet the Irregular Troops Backing up Russia’s Army in the Kharkiv Region
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2022/06/17/meet-the-irregular-troops-backing-up-russias-army-in-the-donbas/
On the Irrelevance of Ranking Militaries
“The war in Ukraine surprised many commentors and analysts. There are notably two reasons why. The first one is the mere fact that Russia openly invaded and attacked Ukrainian territory which was not traditionally considered “pro-Russian.” The second one is the fact that the Russian military, which had been typically considered as the second most powerful military in the world, got bogged down, struggled even to make light advances, and eventually got repulsed, being forced to limit its operations to southeastern and eastern Ukraine.”
https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/irrelevance-ranking-militaries
I haven’t yet hit a pay wall at Wind Power Monthly.
There’s obviously a strong pro wind bias, but it’s nevertheless a great source of detailed wind industry news.
I haven’t listened to this yet, but this link will take you to the home page as well as the podcast.
https://www.windpowermonthly.com/article/1754579/new-podcast-war-ukraine-accelerated-route-green-energy-transition
This may be unpopular with some, but I suggest it is just acknowledging the inevitable-
It would be folly for the US to use military means to protect Taiwan from ‘unification with the mainland’.
And the US no longer has the economic bargaining power to fight China economically if they get serious- we need them and their products.
It is high time to offer Taiwan citizens and companies an open gate to migrate here, prior to the ‘helicopter on the roof moment’
We’d be lucky to get the human capital, the cultural infusion and the innovative energy that Taiwan brings to the table.
Elon Musk’s space enterprise wants to transport U.S. troops to any point on Earth in less than an hour. But its sci-fi pitch doesn’t hold up to scrutiny.
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/06/22/spacex-dod-want-to-send-soldiers-on-spaceships-for-rapid-response-missions/
Coal is dead, you say.
THE EU IS BUYING MORE SOUTH AFRICAN COAL THAN EVER
Due to the fear that Russia may cut off natural gas supply going into the harsh winter months, Europe has begun what is being referred to as a “bitter and reluctant return to coal.” But even before this turn of events, the EU had already been ramping up coal imports from other countries to prepare for an exit from Russian energy markets. In fact, EU countries have been importing coal in record numbers from South Africa.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-EU-Is-Buying-More-South-African-Coal-Than-Ever.html
I’m interested in the opinions of any regulars, or anybody, actually, who have given a good bit of thought as to just how fast we would need to switch to electric cars and trucks in order to maintain our Yankee economy without having to be net oil importers.
This obviously depends to a very large extent on how well our own domestic production holds up of course.
40 years ago
Hah, my first reaction was something similar (40 years past)
couple thoughts
-the international trade in oil will be declining from peak pretty quickly as this decade unfolds so uncertain how much will be available to purchase for importation. Better keep good relations with Canada
-the us will likely see a considerable decline in total land miles traveled as gas unaffordability bites hard on optional travel
-ability to switch to electric will be tough for a big portion of the driving public due to cost
-many important parts of the economy can be maintained without importation through this decade and perhaps next [depending how you define important]
-I think its unlikely that the economy will be maintained in a similar manner to the past growth century. the sooner we ration petrol, the longer the average person will still get some.
– get your flying and rv trips in now while the price of fuel is still so cheap
The US has been a net importer of oil almost every year since 1945.
Good point.
I tried to clarify the issue of “peaking” for the folks at a reputable website:
https://theness.com/neurologicablog/index.php/mining-the-sea/#disqus_thread
What do you think, friends? (Mike B’s comment)
Yada, yada, yada
Hey MikeB, cool blog. Thx for the tip. I see some very interesting comments, and commenters, on that site.
PS- who pissed in MADELINE’s cornflakes, HB?
Steven Novella is “wicked smaht,” as we say in Maine, and I love the skeptics movement, but they tend toward rose-colored glasses and cornucopianism and “green” shit.
I quite like Simon Michaux’s comment; “I think we’re in trouble, but I no longer discuss it with people because they don’t want to hear about it. The idea that we would be so stupid as to wait until oil supply declines to work out “alternatives” is too shocking to contemplate.”
From the Atlantic:
[ Podhorzer] views the Trump faction that now dominates the Republican Party … as the U.S. equivalent to the authoritarian parties in places such as Hungary and Venezuela. It is a multipronged, fundamentally antidemocratic movement that has built a solidifying base of institutional support through conservative media networks, evangelical churches, wealthy Republican donors, GOP elected officials, paramilitary white-nationalist groups, and a mass public following. And it is determined to impose its policy and social vision on the entire country—with or without majority support. “The structural attacks on our institutions that paved the way for Trump’s candidacy will continue to progress,” Podhorzer argues, “with or without him at the helm.”
A theocracy in the making?
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2022/06/red-and-blue-state-divide-is-growing-michael-podhorzer-newsletter/661377/
“A theocracy in the making?”
Yes.
A theocratic autocracy.
“It seems unlikely that the Trump-era Republicans installing the policy priorities of their preponderantly white and Christian coalition across the red states will be satisfied just setting the rules in the places now under their control. Podhorzer…believes that the MAGA movement’s long-term goal is to tilt the electoral rules in enough states to make winning Congress or the White House almost impossible for Democrats. Then, with support from the GOP-appointed majority on the Supreme Court, Republicans could impose red-state values and programs nationwide, even if most Americans oppose them. The “MAGA movement is not stopping at the borders of the states it already controls,” Podhorzer writes. “It seeks to conquer as much territory as possible by any means possible.”
The article is spot on.
Thanks John
We have already seen that the Autocratic Supremacists [formerly Republican party] will take any measure to undercut the democratic process in order to favor their control, regardless of laws or constitution. Trump normalized the behavior, even more than Nixon- he didn’t even try to hide his intent. And his voters are fine with that. They admire it, as if they have never even heard of Nazism or Stalin.
Let’s just be thankful that fascist lying morally bankrupt HRC didn’t get elected.
Thank GOD for those who are so self-righteous, they can’t see the difference between Republicans and Democrats and vote useless.
Mikey B, their coming for you next. Don’t expect your idiot Susan Collins to protect you. I think your comment above is very weak for a college English instructor and sad your looking for a pat on the back. A D- would be a gift. Freedom isn’t free and your a quieter. Sorry about your future. The Nazis are here.
The real reason Clinton was targeted by the Putin propaganda that you have swallowed hook line and sinker is that he blamed her for the gruesome death of Qaddafi, which he figures is probably how he will go as well.
Putin targeted Clinton to elect Trump in the name of anti-democracy. That line was sarcasm pointed at the naive Trumpsters who post here. They know who they are. Putin also supported Jill Stein to divide and conquer the Democrats. Today in America women became second class citizens.
Putin has been following Peak Oil, like the people have on this site.
He couldn’t know when it would happen exactly, just like the people on this site.
He wanted Trump in office because he knew that dumb ass would make things worse.
https://www.peakoil.net/files/JOE2010.pdf
General Jim Mattis released this document. Search for Peak Oil
General Jim Mattis was Secretary of Defense under Trump
Trump said he heard scary stuff in one of his security briefings and then STOPPED ATTENDING THEM.
General Jim Mattis resigned.
I speculate (pure speculation) General Mattis found out trump was disinterested in the security of the country and did not want his name associated with that.
Putin knew that she was was going to stand up strong to his bullying, and that Trump was a weakling in comparison.
Regardless of whatever you may think about those two.
That’s right, and if America doesn’t pull their heads out of their ass pretty soon. There going to lose the little democracy they have.
Sounds like one of those ‘Vote Blue No Matter Who’ fanatics.
Sounds like one of those ‘Vote Blue No Matter Who’ fanatics.
Good god, almighty, just what the hell do you think the MAGA crowd is doing. Those fucking idiots would vote for an ignorant Trumpite while screaming “Stop the Steal” before they would vote for the most qualified candidate in America.
Don’t get me wrong, All republicans are not ignorant Trumpites, only about 90% of them. (It used to be 80% but half of the reasonable Republicans, because of Trump, are now Democrats.) Trump tried to destroy Democracy. He is a lying mob boss type and that is just so damn obvious that only someone truly blind in the brain would be unable to see that.
Yes, goddammit, vote blue no matter who or else you will get another Trump or, Majorie Taylor Green, Matt Gates, Mo Brooks, Ted Cruz, Ron Johnson, Lauren Bobart, Madison Cawthorn, or one of the other MAGA idiots. How can anyone vote to put that crowd in charge of the US Government? And if you vote for any Republican then you are voting for those idiots to be in the majority of congress.
Some people prefer the easy path of not picking either the democrat or the republican.
Sure its often the lesser of two bad choices,
but for them they find it easier to blame everyone else,
rather than realizing that they are contributing to the outcome just as much as anyone else.
Me, I always prioritize what i consider to be the choice that keeps us farthest from a tyrannical state above all else -tyranny by the state, by the church, and by the company.
In my lifetime that has always been the Democrat, except once in awhile when there has been an incompetent person put on the ballot. Regarding competency- the republicans have absolutely no advantage over democrats in this regard in the decades I’ve been watching.
“Mikey B, their coming for you next. Don’t expect your idiot Susan Collins to protect you. I think your comment above is very weak for a college English instructor and sad your looking for a pat on the back. A D- would be a gift. Freedom isn’t free and your a quieter. Sorry about your future. The Nazis are here.
Er. . .
“Mikey B, they’re coming for you next . . . . I think your comment above is very weak for a college English instructor and sad you’re looking for a pat on a back . . . . Freedom isn’t free and you’re a quitter. . . .
Is that what you meant to say?
Stuff it, lady.
That’s right, you’re a quitter. Mike Bendzela paraphrase- Poor me, I’ve been an environmentalists for so long and know one listens to me. People don’t change. So I don’t care anymore. But don’t forget to give me a pat on the back for writing about peak oil on another blog. Yada yada yada
Really girl friend, because the religious right isn’t going to have any of your BS however you spell it. Worrying about the grammar doesn’t seem to get your point across. Weak, weak, weak. You need to learn how to write and get people’s attention. Your house is burning down and your worried about the cost of water to put it out. You should be marching on Collins office and leave the grammar check to Google and Microsoft.
First they came for the Communists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Communist
Then they came for the Socialists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Socialist
Then they came for the trade unionists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a trade unionist
Then they came for the Jews
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Jew
Then they came for me
And there was no one left
To speak out for me
BTW, you ask for comments. You just didn’t like what you heard.
“Blood alone moves the wheels of history.”
— Benito Mussolini
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=44yHYBrIz9I
Speaking of theocracy, the Supreme Court has just overturned Roe v Wade.
“Abortion will soon be banned across much of red-state America”.
Minority rule by the theocrats…
Yeah, soon contraceptives will be banned in all red states. It makes me cry because I live in a red state, Alabama. And if that trend continues then soon prayer and bible study will be required in all public schools. All who disagree will be deemed agents of the Devil and be burned at the stake.
Did you turn your clocks back 50 years last night?
https://digbysblog.net/2022/06/25/now-what/
HIGHTREKKER —
Well put.
Oh well, maybe 2.0 degrees.
CURRENT GLOBAL EFFORTS ARE INSUFFICIENT TO LIMIT WARMING TO 1.5°C
A pair of climate scientists at Concordia University has concluded that despite efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions by many nations, the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the middle of this century will not be met. Their paper was published in the journal Science
https://phys.org/news/2022-06-current-global-efforts-insufficient-limit.html
Sounds about right… gulp
It’s fine.
Oh, wait.
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1539800471241736194?s=20&t=AJtMQ_QQ45mKKpIdpPuHfQ
Shit just got real.
The good news, Mother Earth has immense coal reserves; the bad news, well, we all know the bad news.
CHINESE PREMIER CALLS FOR MORE COAL PRODUCTION AS ELECTRICITY DEMAND SOARS
“The way that AC [air conditioning] is used, as soon as it gets warm, everyone turns theirs on … putting huge strain on the grid, which means that either there are power cuts or peak power is switched on, and peak power is run by coal plants. It’s a catch-22: it gets warm, so you turn on your AC, which increases global temps even further. So, China has increased coal production to address a rising demand for cooling, but it’s a short-term fix which has long-term implications.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/24/chinese-premier-calls-for-more-coal-production-as-electricity-demand-soars
Ticking Off The Checklist For Mass Extinction
https://collapseofindustrialcivilization.com/2022/06/23/ticking-off-the-checklist-for-mass-extinction/
Tks survivalist for the link . I have it bookmarked but check on it only now and then because posts are every 3 -4 months apart . Merci ,for reminding me .
SURVIVALIST —
From your post: “During the K-T extinction, the immediate impact of the asteroid killed only the large animals. It took thousands of years for the consequent climate change to kill off smaller organisms. Current trends are exponentially faster, not only with anthropogenic climate disruption incinerating the biosphere within a lifetime but also by a multi-pronged attack from other human activities such as chemical and plastic pollution, the global spread of invasive species, and humanity’s massive overdraw on the planet’s resources.”
A new open thread Non-Petroleum has been posted.
https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-june-25-2022/
A new thread regarding the EIA’s June 2022 Oil Production Outlooks has been posted.
https://peakoilbarrel.com/eias-june-2022-oil-production-outlooks/