128 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum, June 17, 2023”

  1. “We’ve built a global civilization of unparalleled complexity, wealth, and inequality, all based on depleting, polluting fossil fuels. What could go wrong?”

    Wrong thread?

  2. https://cleantechnica.com/2023/06/16/spain-to-get-50-of-electricity-from-renewable-energy-in-2023/

    Spain is exporting electricity to France.

    About ten percent hydro, twenty percent solar, twenty percent wind.

    It’s not just about the climate.

    In terms of winning the battle for the minds of the public, we need to be reminding everybody that more wind and solar juice means less gas and coal fired juice……… meaning the MONEY stays home in countries that have to import fuel..

    And that even in countries that are self sufficient…… Nature’s one time gift of oil and gas won’t last forever.

    More renewable juice means lower fossil fuel prices.

    The environmental camp is screwing up royally by not emphasizing this point, because this is a point that has the power to get the attention of conservative voters who understand “supply and demand”.

    1. I agree OFM. Kansas is a poster child for this kind of stupidity. Why (except for blatant corruption) import coal when you have so much wind?

      And don’t get me started on the “sunshine state”.

      The argument for renewables is primarily economic.

        1. Svaya, I love how when a person, like you, doesn’t know how to criticize a person’s argument, they criticize the person instead. It’s called the ad hominem argument.

          It’s just another form of cynicism.

      2. ox·y·to·cin NOUN BIOCHEMISTRY
        a hormone released by the pituitary gland that causes increased contraction of the uterus during labor and stimulates the ejection of milk into the ducts of the breasts.

        Really? I don’t get the connection.

        1. Ron,

          That short definition is far from the only thing oxytocin does. From Wikipedia:

          “Studies have looked at oxytocin’s role in various behaviors, including orgasm, social recognition, pair bonding, anxiety, in-group bias, situational lack of honesty, autism, and maternal behaviors.[14] Oxytocin is believed to have a significant role in social learning. There are indicators that oxytocin may help to decrease noise in the brain’s auditory system, increase perception of social cues and support more targeted social behavior. It may also enhance reward responses. However, its effects may be influenced by context, such as the presence of familiar or unfamiliar individuals.[60][61]”

          1. Thanks, Niko. But what the hell?

            OT (oxytocin) treatment increased this racial in-group bias in neural responses and resulted in its correlation with a positive implicit attitude toward racial in-group members. Our findings suggest that OT interacts with the intergroup relationship to modulate empathic neural responses to others’ suffering.

            Bottom line, it enhances in group empathy but does not do a damn thing for out group empathy. And we have absolutely no control over our oxytocin production from our pituitary gland.

            That just reinforces my belief that free will is a myth. It is a grand illusion, but just that, an illusion.

            1. “Bottom line, it enhances in group empathy but does not do a damn thing for out group epathy.”

              You’re right, (acc. to what I’ve read) and Sapolsky agrees.

            2. Mike B, thanks for the link. “Behave: The Biology of Humans at Our Best and Worst.” I must have this book. I simply must. $22.55 is much more than I usually pay for a book, and I don’t think I have ever read a book with 800 pages. But I will give this one a try. This is a subject I dearly love. I hope it has some answers that still escape me to questions about what this life is all about.

            3. Ron, you won’t be disappointed! I actually read it TWICE, which is more than I can say about any book over 400 pages.

              Sapolsky is a treasure–and he’s funny! Look up his vids on YouTube some time. I watched his whole lecture series from Stanford, which was exhausting, and much over my head, but worth the effort.

            4. Thanks Mike B, Ron. Just ordered Sapolsky’s Behave. Only $10 (new) here in the UK 🙂

            6. There’s a new Sapolsky due in October, which would be even more appropriate: “Determined: A Science of Life Without Free Will”.

            7. Thanks, George. I should finish “Behave” just in time for that one. The title of that one suggest I would love it. My essay, “The Grand Illusion,” was about life without free will.

              Actually, I don’t think it will take me that long to read Behave. However, 800 pages of nonfiction will take a while. Nonfiction must be digested and cannot be read like a novel.

  4. Going back to the last thread…… and some arguments about people following the shrinking forest to make and sell charcoal for instance……..

    In the event of a flat out collapse……… who are they going to sell it TO?
    How are they going to get it to their hypothetical customer?

    In the last thread, there were comments about wood being shipped long distances to be burnt……. but by water. Nothing was mentioned about what came back on the ships or rafts to pay for the wood.

    In the event of a general collapse, there won’t BE anything to be shipped back.And there are no sailing ships around these days, and nobody who knows how to sail one anyway.

    And I daresay most of the remaining forested land in most countries isn’t all that close to a navigable river or seaport anyway.

    Sure such things will happen on a relatively small scale……… but not on the grand scale.

    Let’s not forget that horses and mules are so scarce as to be non existent, as a practical matter, for such purposes.

    The general population, in the event of the collapse of the nation state, will collapse like a dynamited skyscraper.

    Without the nation state…… there’s no diesel fuel. The electrical and water and sewer grids are DEAD.

    In the event there is NO government, no effective martial law, just chaos, my hands on and professional expertise , such as it is, forces me to conclude that well over ninety percent of the people in the USA will be dead within a few weeks or months, and that it’s entirely possible that not more than one or two percent of us will survive.

    A larger percentage of us, more than one or two percent, could put our hands on food enough to live…… but the ones that HAVE food are going to be done in, in a chaos situation, UNTIL….. guess what?

    The rape, robbing, and pillaging peak and decline to the point that violence is a rather MINOR problem…… because there just won’t BE ENOUGH people left for violence to BE a major problem.

    This is the way NATURE works. When predators get the upper hand, their prey species populations drop to the point the predators populations crash as well.

    Would my friends and I survive long enough that somebody or a few somebodies would attack us, living on a farm in the boonies?

    Maybe. Maybe not.

    But SOME people living on small farms in the boonies are going to survive, and they’re going to have a cow or two, and a pig or two, and maybe even a horse or two, sometimes, and if they’re reasonably young and healthy, they can grow enough beans, corn, onions and so forth to survive……. in at least some cases.

    And they can do it using only hand tools. No manufactured fertilizers, no manufactured insecticides, just a LOT of sweat, day after day, month after month.

    But they won’t have any problems putting their hands on enough axes, hatchets, nails, and various kinds of assorted hardware to get by…….. there will be tons of such stuff available simply for the gathering of it, once the first few months are past.

    Their only REALLY critical problems will be food and security, if they get thru the first year. There won’t be anybody foreclosing on their house or land, or turning off the electricity……… it’ll be off already.

    They’ll dig a privy, unless they’re quick enough to realize that you go in buckets, and empty the buckets in the cornfield.

    Nothing in the stores to eat, cops are no better armed than a lot of civilians, no water no sewer, no hospital, no drug store, only a looted hardware store, the shrinking number of survivors robbing and murdering for whatever is left that’s edible.

    Now explain to me how it is that I don’t APPRECIATE chaos.

    Now maybe the federal and state governments here in Yankee Land WILL cease to exist.

    Maybe some units of the military will hang together and go out and set themselves up as little fiefdoms under the command of their highest ranking surviving officer.
    Maybe such a little fiefdom will come to pass in my neighborhood, and I’ll be a peasant/ slave exchanging my farm production, such as it would be, for protection from raiders.

    This is an entirely reasonable scenario.

    But Uncle Sam isn’t going to roll over and die, at least not without a struggle that will last for months or years.

    One or two percent of us can and will very likely survive anything short of a big asteroid or a flat out WWIII, or the climate going TOTALLY nuts.

    When and if we get down to that level, there won’t be enough other people around to create much in the way of security problems.

    And the one or two percent will be quite well armed, and quite likely to be proactive in keeping an eye peeled for possible trouble makers.

    Don’t forget…….. chaos means NO law enforcement at all…. except whatever your own tiny surviving community decides for itself. The penalty for passing the last warning sign five miles down the road may well be a well aimed bullet.

    There will be a few survivors in the event of a total economic and government collapse. These few will repopulate the world.

    1. OFM…what about the much more likely scenario of a sustained loss of international energy trade and thus large pockets of energy poverty, rather than all out global collapse. That is what I was referring to when I said there is a risk for an escalation in wholesale deforestation.

      Also regarding “In the last thread, there were comments about wood being shipped long distances to be burnt……. but by water. Nothing was mentioned about what came back on the ships or rafts to pay for the wood.”
      As an example,
      We can look back at Cyprus in the bronze age, which was a major source of copper for around 3000 years before iron production picked up. The forests of Cyprus were stripped bare something like 17 times equivalent to smelt the ore, and ships came from all over the region to bring in wood and tin (for copper smelting and bronze production). The production wasn’t huge by modern industrial standards, but it was enough to strip bare the regions forests.

      1. Hi Hickory,

        My usual position and argument is that there’s at least a fair, and maybe a good chance, that while a severe collapse is baked in, with a substantial portion of the human species dying hard within the fore see able future, some people in some places WILL continue to enjoy a modern economy, at least to the point that the lights stay on, the water and sewer systems work, there’s food in the stores, cops on the street, etc.

        Very tough times are pretty much a given, even in the most fortunate places, but hopefully not so tough most of us in Yankee Land and other such fortunate locations can’t live thru them.

        But I’m basing this optimistic scenario on the assumption we will be fortunate enough to have decent leaders who can get the public to back them in doing what’s necessary ….. anything and everything that can be done to make sure there’s food enough for everybody, water and sewer service, some cops on the street, etc.

        It’s my belief that very hard crash or collapse is more or less inevitable, but that it will be piecemeal in terms of time and place. So a few hundred million may starve in let us say Indonesia or Egypt, in a given year, but some people in some countries, such as the USA, Canada, Western Europe, will likely pull thru without too much in the way of violence, starvation, pandemic disease, etc.

        There’s no guarantee of course. Things can and might go entirely to hell within a matter of days so that little or nothing can be done to prevent a descent into chaos.

        And there’s actually a possibility, but only a very slim one in my opinion, that we may pull thru without a fast population collapse, because the birth rate world wide is falling like a rock, and we might be lucky enough that somehow or another we manage to hang on another thirty or forty years until the population actually starts declining due to the low birth rate.

        Now about Cyprus.

        You’re dead on as usual, in everything you say, but Cyprus is a special case, as much the exception that proves the rule as otherwise.

        Cyprus is a rather small island country, less than ten thousand square kilometers, and copper was extraordinarily valuable in those days……. probably by far and away the most valuable material available in significant amounts. ( Gold and other precious metals have never been available in large enough amounts to be used for practical purposes such as making tools or weapons. )

        It’s only about a hundred fifty miles in it’s greatest extent east to west and sixty miles or so north to south, with upwards of a thousand miles of coastline. It’s likely none of the wood used to smelt copper or make bronze was transported more than twenty to thirty miles unless by water.

        And the trees grew back at least sixteen times…..

        If the shit gets into the fan to the point we need to transport wood for fuel over long distances, we’ll mostly burn coal…….. it’s a far more energy dense fuel, and getting a ton of coal out of the ground is easier in a lot of cases than harvesting an equivalent amount of wood. If long distance transport is available for wood, it will probably be available for coal as well, and we’re not even close to running out of coal.

    2. About shipping wood etc: I do not know exactly what came back, but monetary system was used on those times(1700’s and 1800’s) so probably some luxuries were bought and most of the money was brought back to ships’ homeports for whatever purchases were available (at least farm animals, more forested land, money for buying wood from others etc and so forth). Usually ships could be used something like 10 to 20 years and one short quip by one shipowner was like ‘the ship paid for building the next ship which paid for building the next’.

  5. got put on the end of the last thread. this is a good example of our hallucinatory reality (it’s not just AI that’s prone to hallucinations and accelerated dementia). it contrasts well with all the ACTUAL problems that this thread often covers. And I think this hyperfocus on essentially non-issues is IN ITSELF a huge issue. When I say peak oil will never be addressed as an issue in the popular consciousness I’m only being partially facetious. The consciousness of the developed world has gone insane, much like the AI’s it produces.

    “But distinguishing between technology that Beijing could use to advance its military and technology that Chinese companies use for everyday commercial purposes has proven difficult for the Biden administration, particularly when it comes to AI, according to people familiar with the deliberations. ”

    I mean, there is a level of the “the mind makes it real” (The Matrix) when it comes to “the chinese threat” but the article doesn’t actually state any specific threat, and certainly none that is heightened specifically by AI. And then there is the AI itself as some nebulous floating “threat”. This is a case of “we will have to build Skynet to prevent the Chinese from building Skynet”. NOT behind a paywall – because all the best propaganda is free.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-grapples-with-potential-threats-from-chinese-ai-7d1f2e70

    I think part of this push is just capital controls desired by the large tech companies. convince these numb-nuts legislators that “AI is imminent threat” and you basically get to craft the rules that guarantee your company is “legit” and the door is shut behind you.

    https://cointelegraph.com/news/ai-could-threaten-humanity-in-two-years-says-uk-advisor

    to think these fossilized legislators could POSSIBLY evaluate any actual threats posed by AI is really… I mean the entire enterprise has become a fever dream.

    1. “A secret question hovers over us, a sense of disappointment, a broken promise we were given as children about what our adult world was supposed to be like. I am referring not to the standard false promises that children are always given (about how the world is fair, or how those who work hard shall be rewarded), but to a particular generational promise—given to those who were children in the fifties, sixties, seventies, or eighties—one that was never quite articulated as a promise but rather as a set of assumptions about what our adult world would be like. And since it was never quite promised, now that it has failed to come true, we’re left confused: indignant, but at the same time, embarrassed at our own indignation, ashamed we were ever so silly to believe our elders to begin with.

      Where, in short, are the flying cars? Where are the force fields, tractor beams, teleportation pods, antigravity sleds, tricorders, immortality drugs, colonies on Mars, and all the other technological wonders any child growing up in the mid-to-late twentieth century assumed would exist by now? Even those inventions that seemed ready to emerge—like cloning or cryogenics—ended up betraying their lofty promises. What happened to them?”

      1. well, dialing it way short of flying cars, the promise of the US was an exchange of political/economic (read: democratic) power for material comfort and entertainment. There has been a long process of removing many decisions from the realm of politics (creation of the Fed & Treasury being just two such examples, but read: Deep State). These decisions people were willing to give up so long as the goods, treats and services were provided. This is the deal that’s been nullified with no reinstatement of democratic power. As the Willy Wonka meme goes, “You get nothing.”

        AI’s true success as an investment bubble and social craze has way more to do with it’s ability to DISCIPLINE LABOR (i.e. you could lose your job to AI at any moment and there’s nothing you can do about it and that’s a good thing, or at least, it’s inevitable, so it can’t be helped). “Destroying humanity via Skynet” or “Making our lives a paradise with everyone owning their own JARVIS/FRIDAY” those are just marketing strategies by “two sides” both of whom support AI. So it’s not JUST that the technology isn’t that great (AI way overhyped) but it isn’t meant to improve our way of life unless that improvement specifically tethers a company or industry to the technology itself. Notice how Apple isn’t pushing it’s Vision Pro for personal consumption but as productivity enhancers. It needs the vision to become indispensible in the corporate world, so that goggles are as common as Keurigs.

  6. One of the most severe marine heatwaves on Earth has developed off the coast of Ireland and the UK, with water temperatures as high as 4-5°C above normal.

    NOAA’s Marine Heatwave Watch has categorized this event as a Category 4 (extreme) marine heatwave.

    2. Someone once said, If you repeat a lie enough it starts to be believed. That deep red spot is 63 degrees. Chicken Little would be proud.

      1. the ocean isn’t just there so you can swim in piss-temperature water

        The Atlantic salmon, the most commonly farmed salmon species, does best at temperatures between 10 °C and 14 °C, says Binyam Sime Dagnachew at the Norwegian Institute of Food, Fisheries, and Aquaculture Research (Nofima). When the temperature approaches 20 °C, the fish stop eating and begin to show signs of heat stress, such as an elevated heart rate.

        https://hakaimagazine.com/news/the-aquaculture-industry-needs-a-heat-loving-salmon/

        1. maybe if cetaceans had more top 20 alpha grindset podcasts the ocean would be in better shape.

        1. Not so sure about that Dennis.
          Some actually seem to believe that the evolution of life, the spherical shape of earth, and greenhouse warming of the atmosphere (and thus the oceans) is just a series of
          ‘woke’ conspiracies.

      3. “We keep waiting for the North Atlantic water temperatures to relax back to near-normal (or at least to just slightly above-average), but no, they’re increasing again. Monday’s data point is 3.6 standard deviations above the 1991-2020 mean, or a 1-in-5900 chance of happening.”

    3. Recent climate change may originate from structural and exothermic phase changes in the nickel-iron core of the Earth, and not primarily from man’s activity alone. Lattice structure (phase) changes in sloughed (shed) core material releases latent kinetic energy (heat) which flows to the asthenosphere and abyssal ocean depths, thereby becoming genesis of the majority of observed climate change and its long-associated geomagnetic dipole phenomena

      https://theethicalskeptic.com/

      1. The name of this outfit, ethical skeptic, says it all.

        Whover wrote this piece is good at scientific sounding gobble gook, without a doubt.

        But he’s like the one kid in the entire band who is marching to the music, according to his mom.

      2. “structural and exothermic phase changes in the nickel-iron core of the Earth, and not primarily from man’s activity alone. Lattice structure (phase) changes in sloughed (shed) core material releases latent kinetic energy (heat) which flows to the asthenosphere and abyssal ocean depths, thereby becoming genesis of the majority of observed climate change and its long-associated geomagnetic dipole phenomena”

        Utter nonsense.

          1. The Ethical Skeptic now claims that he wants a more open process when considering alternative hypotheses. He also claimed this : “I am CEO of a corporation and am leading a US Infrastructure Strategy – so this should not fall upon solely me.”

            Which sounds like BS coming from a pseudonymous account. Why not be open about your identity when complaining about other stuff being closed?

            1. Sounds like typical misdirection and attempts to create confusion.

              What I don’t understand is what these people gain from these extravagant fabrications.

            2. “What I don’t understand is what these people gain from these extravagant fabrications.”

              Weird claim by someone else :

              “Ecological aspects of deep degassing of the Earth: destruction of the ozone layer, weather anomalies, anomalous heat in the polar regions, natural fires, mass death of biota. ” Russian Academy of Science Rumored COP-28 Climate Schism Opening Shot (Slides w/ Machine Translation)

              Well, the rumor or maybe confirmed rumor is that Russia is ready to push this at COP-28 to drive a geopolitical wedge and take OPEC with them against the climate doom techno communist financial order. Which means a huge breach in the “consensus” dam. One reason for the stonewalling on skeptical science is because other countries were eager to “play ball” with the global economic system and that’s changing.

      3. I have one simple question:
        If the heat is being generated in the earth’s core why is the temperatre gradient warmest on the surface?

          2. JJHman is a very smart person. His question was a rhetorical or sarcastic one .

    4. The rise of sea temperature around Ireland and England is logic : the temperature in Europe rose of 2,3°C. It is in agreement with the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. During the Piiocene, the dioxide carbone level was roughly the same as today and the temperature in Europe was higher of 2-3°C than the current reference. And sea temperatures during the climatic optimum were also higher than today. https://geology.er.usgs.gov/egpsc/prism/gallery/PRISM3_SST_Anomaly_AUG.png

  8. The transition to electric cars and light trucks is at least far enough along that the Churchill quote about the duration of WWII applies.

    Paraphrased, it goes that the end of the war was not at that time in sight, or even the beginning of the end.

    But the war effort had progressed to ” the end of the beginning”.

    I foresee poor people in countries such as the USA continuing to drive, right up to the point of bankruptcy, because they mostly don’t have any CHOICE…….. it’s drive to work, or starve.

    But they can and are switching as fast as possible, as a practical matter, to cars that get better fuel economy, because the REAL gas hogs are mostly gone now. The oldest cars I commonly see on the road were built in the nineties, and they’re far better than older ones in terms of fuel economy.

    And hard up people are driving less than before. They’re getting better at combining trips, and picking out an apartment or rental house closer to their jobs.

    Maybe the key question is this one, in some respects.

    Will electric cars sell fast enough over the next few years so that the prices of older ordinary cars will start to go down again?

    This may be a critical consideration, because if too many working people wind up on welfare due to transportation problems, there will be even more pressure on the economy and federal and state budgets…….. making for less money available for force feeding the transition to renewable energy.

    1. The labs are reporting a lot of good progress. I’ve seen energy density estimates as high as around 1200 wh/kg. For reference, the Model 3 has an estimated energy density of 250 wh/kg. If the former ever makes it out of the lab and into a Model 3, That’s like increasing the range from 359 miles to 1723 miles. That’s like driving from OFM’s place in NW NC to Denver on one charge.
      OR
      a pack that is about 1/5 the size of the present pack.
      Of course, it’s a long way from the a to a pack but we’re headed in the right direction.

  9. https://news.yahoo.com/arnold-schwarzenegger-makes-bold-statement-173000999.html

    I believe he’s right.

    The environmental camp isn’t doing a very good job of getting the message across in such a way that most people actually HEAR it, and REACT to it.

    I’ve long maintained that one of the very biggest problems involving liberal people, and the liberal establishment, is that they catastrophically overestimate the WORKING intelligence level of the general public…….

    I’ve met and known hundreds of college educated people over the years, and the sad truth is that the large majority of them are pretty close to scientifically illiterate. Sure they know the Earth is round, and goes around the sun, and that evolution is real…….. but beyond that…….. except for the ones in the life sciences……. they’re not much better positioned to think for themselves than my high school dropout hillbilly neighbors.

    So help me Jesus, it’s not at all unusual to run across engineers who virtually nothing about the environment, or climate, or the depletion of one time gift of nature resources such as oil and gas.

    They don’t KNOW enough, and furthermore, at least a third to one half of them don’t even CARE, because they don’t hear and understand and take the environmental message seriously.

    And so far as my hillbilly neighbors are concerned, the majority of them are actively hostile to the very concept of forced climate change, etc.

    But it’s still possible, and even easy sometimes, to get thru to them.

    I have a couple of friends who work for companies that do maintenance on transmission lines, and these companies will be building new transmission lines out the ying yang in the not so distant future……. so that we can connect new wind and solar farms. THIS gets their attention, you betcha…….. and the guys who clear and grade land, and build fences, and lay pipe and wire………..

    Well most of these people are cultural and political conservatives.

    But once somebody points out to them which side of THEIR bread is buttered……. they’re ready to at least consider the possibility of voting blue.

    Farmers worried about solar farms on farm land have an ENTIRELY erroneous understanding of what this means to them, personally.

    First off only a few of us really give a damn about keeping the countryside rural. We’re BUSINESS men and women, and we’re generally perfectly happy with the fact that development is headed our way, so that we can sell out and QUIT and move to Florida or Colorado or to town, closer to the hospital, etc.

    But what farmers mostly don’t appreciate, although they know enough to understand it, is that every square mile that’s taken out of crop production means they’re PERSONALLY that much better off, over the long term, because the less available cropland, the BETTER, for them. This means higher prices for them when they sell.

    And it’s not the LOCAL WORKING class people who are opposed to transmission lines, wind farms, and solar farms. Such people are VERY happy to see such development, because it means at least some new permanent jobs, and some local property tax revenue, meaning better schools, better policing, etc.

    We need to get it across to such people.. Keep in mind that they outnumber the well off property owners, the wealthy retirees, and the guys who inherited a thousand acres from their families, the doctors and lawyers retiring out in the boonies, etc,………. by a factor of at least ten to one.

    I never miss an opportunity to point out to my gear head acquaintances that every electric car sold means cheaper gasoline for them.

    1. OFM
      Right. Wind is a big deal in Iowa because big land owners profit from it. Same is true is Texas.

      When Tesla was starting, (before Musk) they noticed that the California compliance cars all got sold to zip codes where rich people live. So they started with roadsters, which are impractical toys for rich boys.

    2. One of the dramatic things about solar energy that doesn’t get much attention is the incredible shift in power economics that is enabled by the ability of an individual or community or small business to become an independent power producer.
      Previously over the past 100 years just about everyone had to purchase energy from a big company or government, with the money being exported to a small group of others who were often far away.

      But now there is the the potential for people to become energy independent or power exporters.
      The shift in dynamics could be discussed at books length.

  11. Local fire news.

    Biggest wildfire in BC hystory currently burning here and we haven’t even reached the fire season peak. The so-called Donnie Creek fire located south of Fort Nelson in northeastern B.C., is now estimated at more than 5,343 square kilometres in size. No idea how much CO2 it is producing or when it will be brought under control but not before the Fall apparently. Fire crews can only work to protect infrastructure — owing to it’s size.

    Records show this fire now surpasses the 2017 Plateau Fire at 5,210 square kilometres.

    1. How much worse is the pine bark beetle making things still? I think I read somewhere that the biggest issue is that the dead trees produce more burning embers so the fires spread much faster where the beetle is prevalent. What grows back if a stand of dead trees is burnt down? Presumably not more pines, or is the earth effectively sterilised for a few years now with these big and intense fires.

      I think CO released from wildfires might be a bigger issue than CO2 as it destroys hydroxyl radicals and so gives methane a longer atmospheric life (likewise hydrogen is classed as a secondary greenhouse gas, yet another reason why it is not even a partial solution to climate change or fossil fuel depletion problems).

      1. I do not know how this is done in Canada but here we aim to re-plant ASAP/the year after the fire. Forest owners do differently, some go fore pine only. Others try to forsee and adapt to climate change by adding more leaf trees (oak, beech). Adding leafs make the forest much more resilient to storms etc.

      2. Fire spreads extremely fast in any case in a stand of dead trees…… and resinous trees are the worst, the burn hotter and faster.

        It’s been many a year since I cracked a forestry text that covers boreal geography, but some species of pine have evolved in such a way as to burn on a regular basis. Such species start out together, at the same time, on bare burnt soil, from seeds that are buried deep enough that they don’t burn…… but they do germinate after exposure to the extra heat.

        With the trees being of a matched age class, they not only dominate the landscape, they mature and die together as well….. setting the stage for another round of fire.

        I suspect this adaptation plays a substantial role in a lot of fires up north these days, but I haven’t actually read up on it.

        Younger people living today are going to see some substantial changes in the typical mix of species in forests here, there, and everywhere.

        Changing climate is primarily responsible, either directly, as some species decline and others thrive due to greater average temperature, more or less rain, or indirectly, by inducing population explosions in various insect and fungus species that prey on given species of trees.

        But the way we use the land has a lot to do with it as well. Land cut up into small tracts separated by clearings, roads, houses, etc, does not support the previous mix of tree species. Some decline and even disappear locally, while others thrive and become dominant.

        And then on top of all this…….. we’re introducing new pests, new species and new diseases for the sake of the landscaping industry.

        And the right wing idiots who believe or pretend to believe that too much government is the problem are making it worse by a mile……. by refusing to fund the work necessary to keep invasive species and diseases out of the country.

      3. In Canada fires don’t usually get replanted. A company will plant in its FMA, but crown land is, from what I understand, subject to natural regeneration and forest succession. I would imagine it varies by province.
        Pine will grow back, if fire is not too intense, as fire is part of its cycle. If fire returns in less than 5 years it will kill the young pine and they won’t reseed. Lots of things besides pine though.

        1. If pines grow back how long do they last until the beetle gets them again, and do they grow normally until they are killed or are they stunted in some way? I understand that in the equilibrium (evolved) forest the beetles killed off old and sick trees and allowed continued renewal, but we are not there anymore. The temperature is gradually warming and seems much more volatile with extreme highs and droughts more likely, and the fire regime has changed. Maybe parts of the forest are heading towards savanna eventually.

          1. I worked for ten years in the Boreal forest. Pine beetles were not present there because the winters were too cold. In the mountains and valleys of BC and Alberta the beetles survive by overwintering under the bark of old trees, they attack younger trees as well but usually die over the winter because the thinner bark of the young trees is not sufficiently protective unless there are no cold snaps. One of natures controls on Pine Beetles was forest fires – When they killed off an area of forest, it would catch fire, and when it finished the dead trees, it moved into the adjoining forest and toasted the current crop of beetles. The present practice of harvesting the dead and dying trees before they decay too seriously and suppressing forest fires in these areas has played to the beetles advantage. With warmer winters in recent years, the beetle has expanded its geographic reach further north where the forest had not adapted to its presence.

            1. Excellent point. The idea that fire (or logging) is the only way of getting rid of dead wood has always been a logger’s narrative.

  12. Some comments about the grid

    The importance of the electric grid going forward can not be understated (in the western world at least). It has to be operated at at pretty stable hertz range unfortunately. Demand and supply real time every moment. This means that more and more renewable capacity must be stabilised with fossil fuels, hydro magazines, possibly hydrogen or battery capacity. The alternative is planned (or unplanned) black out, which can be possible to cope with in an industrial setting. Still, the grid with blackout would need backup generation and suitable energy storage to stabilise the grid to some degree. It is possible to think of a plethora of future grid networks with different degree of uptime and service. Including micro grids for remote places.

    Talking about the demand for electricity. Prices would have to be highly volatile per hour for end users to adapt; maybe that is a good thing. There are alternatives – private backup batteries or generators. Not to let people feel the real cost of intermittant electricity would probably also be wrong. Especially since we at some point would have to rely more on renewables. Everything would be subsidised then, and in a large part by fossil fuels indirectly.

    The last part is to actually be able to build new high voltage grid lines over substantial distances. Not in my backyard is predominant. A lot of legislation and subsidies at several levels would probably be justified to speed up the process so that the worst bottle necks could be avoided in due time. There are windmills turned deliberately off and also solar not being built out to potential because grid capacity is not there many places.

    1. The grid is an archetype for Tainter’s complexity issues. It was complicated enough to start off, had another layer added with added pumped storage and fast start turbines for reliability, then more so with trying to integrate wind and solar and, probably a step too far, would be adding the redundancy necessary to be entirely “renewable”. The design would be better if the whole thing was torn down and started from bottom up, but that’s not an option, as it is we can barely maintain what we’ve already got.

      1. I can’t see that there’s any realistic path to going entirely renewable within the next couple of decades except possibly in a few local areas, and even then it would be prudent and likely mandatory to maintain grid ties to other areas…….. just in case.

        And in any case it seems obvious to me that the best overall solution to both the fossil fuel depletion problem and the CO2 problem is to maintain some fossil fuel generation capacity well into the foreseeable future…… because going totally renewable runs into the problem of ever increasing costs to eliminate an ever smaller amount of CO2.

        It would be far better to spend the money needed to get rid of the last few percent of CO2 generated by power plants on other problems…. such as building better insulated houses that require less heat and cooling , thereby reducing the overall demand for electricity.

        Conservation and efficiency are almost always the more economical and effective solutions to such problems, compared to going nuts trying to totally eliminate them.

        Agriculture generates a hell of a lot of CO2. Putting solar and wind power to work on jobs such as transporting heavy stuff we use, such as lime and fertilizer, or sell, such as train loads of grain, beef and veggies, is low hanging fruit, compared to getting rid of the last five or ten percent of CO2 produced by power plants.

        And it’s likely we will be able to reduce our use of diesel fuel to a substantial extent in field operations over the next ten to twenty years, by doing things differently.

        No till planting substitutes herbicides for diesel fuel. The herbicides are a problem in and of themselves of course, but the odds are that we will have better and safer herbicides. It’s already possible to use drones to apply pesticides in some cases, eliminating trips thru the field with a tractor and sprayer.

        It’ likely we will have PRACTICAL electric tractors suitable for many farming operations within a decade or so, but for now, they’re still too expensive, too small, and too time of use limited. Electric cars work just fine now, because they’re used almost every day for an hour or two, as opposed to a very expensive big tractor that frequently sits in a barn for weeks and months at a time.

        But there are lots tractors on smaller farms that are used on a fairly regular basis, including on a daily basis, and going electric with these smaller ones will turn out to be practical over the coming years, assuming the rural grid can be upgraded to charge them up…….. or that solar will get cheap enough that lots of farmers have substantial on farm solar setups of their own.

        It could turn out that using a big diesel tractor( existing) to run a generator to charge small electric tractors, and the family car, and farm pickup truck, etc, as necessary to go close to one hundred percent renewable on farm will be a practical thing to do.

        Farmers don’t need a lot of electricity at night as a usual thing……. no more than most other homeowners, and batteries are going to be good enough and cheap enough to manage overnight needs in the home.

        I won’t see it happen myself……. too old. But this could be a realistic scenario in twenty years, maybe even less.

        1. I think we may see a big resurgence in sheep raising here in the US, which is down about 90% since the late 1800’s. They look to be the best fit for dual use of grazing land– solar/sheep.

          There is even a Solar Grazing Association- https://solargrazing.org/

    1. Wow , ” Because the weather is so nice in India, they just placed the largest order of planes in aviation history at the Paris Aviation Fair…. Everyone has gone nuts with Macron and Musk leading the way…. 🙂 ”
      The 500 planes are to be delivered between 2030 and 2035 . I don’t know what fuel these planes will use . Maybe cow dung pellets ??
      https://www.lefigaro.fr/societes/la-compagnie-indienne-indigo-commande-500-airbus-a320-record-absolu-20230619

  15. HIDDEN BENEATH THE SURFACE Digging deep into a humble lake in Canada, scientists found a spot on Earth like no other — and a record that could redefine our history of the planet

    Great article with some great visual effects. It’s about the beginning of the Anthropocene. It will keep you enthralled from beginning to end.

    Opps, I forgot. This is a Washington Post article. I have a subscription. I hope it’s not behind a pay wall.

    1. That was awesome. Thanks for sharing. And at least for me there was no paywall.

      1. Essentially, an extremely unique lake chemistry nearly perfectly preserved record of human impact on the climate since the middle ages. They can track time periods of different agriculture (can tell when natives were supplanted by Europeans), can tell when the world was doing nuclear tests, can see when we burned coal in earnest and when better environmental protections were put in place, can correlate to temperature changes, etc.

        The best part of the article was the animations, I’ve never seen anything quite like it. Scrolling caused images to shift and change as you read. Very cool.

      3. But “it’s not just a doomsday story,” McCarthy said. “It is a ‘wake up and smell the coffee’ story. It shows we can make meaningful change.”

        It’s almost de rigueur that such articles contain a line like this, isn’t it?

        They’ve been saying variations of the same line for decades.

        1. I agree. I’ve also wondered what will the messaging be when the time comes, for surely that time IS coming. The current and future ’leaders’ are leading us into this, not out of it. What then, are the (leading us into it) messages of today? What might be those of the future? What actions might we be called upon to take as we go further into it? Can you imagine a community meeting where each of us lives to discuss with our neighbors as well as strangers what we are going to DO? We are in it and going deeper, no choice. What’s of most concern at the moment is the current messaging and doing.

          I’ve been involved in water issues where I live, and given the level of disinformation, disagreement and bureaucracy… got a front row seat, not sure I’m ready for prime time….

    1. “Hopefully orcas have something to do with it.” – genius, that will keep me chuckling for a while. i love white gladis.

    1. Solar module prices down by 70% in just 6 months? Wow. I don’t think inflation changes the picture much.

      Inflation in China is subdued. Consumer price index (CPI) inflation rose on average by 1% in the first four months of 2023 year-on-year (yoy)

  20. All eyes are on Russia today. All hell has broken loose. It looks like a showdown between Prigozhin and Putin. I would not put a lot of money on either one right now. But the Wagner leader and his men are over halfway to Moscow.

    What does it all mean? Comments anyone?

    1. If there is no clear winner in fairly short order, watch out for the impact on oil production and severe pain around the world.

      1. on the economic front – this could be the event that triggers that final phase of the bear market we’ve been in and drive oil prices down. The major indexes peaked just a few months prior to the Russian invasion (front ran it during the military build up?). And although oil went up at first (for about 6 months) it later withdrew to a lower high.

        But this event is so strange I think it would be impossible to determine how the markets are going to react. On the one hand – war is not good for highly interconnected financial markets (gold up, oil up, markets down). On the other side – this very clearly looks like a Russian side implosion – which is like the inverse of the Ukrainian invasion when everyone was afraid Russia was this great army. So the markets could view this very positively as essentially the beginning of the end of the war (oil up, markets up, gold down).

        If the fundamentals of the economy were strong or improving I might see the latter as possible, but given the fact that markets have essentially rallied to an insane degree on literally THE IDEA of AI as essentially the creation of God on Earth, I’m a little skeptical. But seems Bullish for oil until this is resolved.

    2. Agree. This is a huge development. I think it’s impossible to maintain the position that “Russia is actually doing really well in this war and is essentially winning” at this point. I’ve had some leanings towards the idea that Russia was settling into a stalemate that would be fine for them – but how can that be the case given this development?? The only downside for the Western side is the perennial “what does Putin do if he feels cornered” tact. But I don’t see how he could nuke his own citizens on Russian soil and have that be a win on any level. Are we looking at Failed State?

      1. Sky News reported that the front line tactical advantage for Ukraine wasn’t much improved (i.e. front line russians are still there fighting), though if they can (further) disrupt their supply chains, with the russian support system now under strain from Wagner, the Ukrainians could deprive front lines of adequate supplies.

    4. It is a storm in a teacup . At the start of the war the West expected the Oligarchs to rise against Putin . I said the Oligarchs exist because of Putin . Prigozhin exists because of Putin . He is only a hound who thinks he is now the master .He will be tamed or extinguished . My bet 48 hrs . Of course , it is not good for morale . Just in, Kadaryov and the Chechen brigade are on their way to subdue him . Machiavelli on mercenaries .

      ” I say, therefore, that the arms with which a prince defends his state are either his own, or they are mercenaries, auxiliaries, or mixed.
      Mercenaries and auxiliaries are useless and dangerous; and if one holds his state based on these arms, he will stand neither firm nor safe; for they are disunited, ambitious and without discipline, unfaithful, valiant before friends, cowardly before enemies; they have neither the fear of God nor fidelity to men, and [one’s own] destruction is deferred only so long as the attack is; for in peace one is robbed by them, and in war by the enemy. The fact is, that they have no other attraction or reason for keeping the field than a trifle of stipend, which is not sufficient to make them willing to die for you. …
      …
      I wish to demonstrate further the infelicity of these arms [i.e., mercenaries]. The mercenary captains are either capable men or they are not; if they are, you cannot trust them, because they always aspire to their own greatness, either by oppressing you, who are their master, or others contrary to your intentions; but if the captain [i.e., the leader of the mercenaries] is not skillful, you are ruined in the usual way [i.e., you will lose the war].”

      2. Greetings Hole in the head! I do not agree with you when it comes to Wagner, the fact is that this situation is unique, it is not Prigozhin who leads the ideology, but other people. They created a kind of knightly order and money is not the main thing for them. I I knew well one commander from there, he is a friend of my eldest son, now he died in Ukraine. He served in Wagner. Before Wagner, he served in intelligence, fought in Chechnya, then at home, in the presence of his wife and children (two girls), three robbers wanted to rob him , he beat one of them, severely broke his ribs and the robber died six months later, and the guy was convicted “for exceeding the necessary defense” and fired from the army. They have a kind of military fraternity, their own oath to the leadership, and not to the country. Not Prigozhin is in charge, but Utkin ( surname). During the rebellion, the majority remained loyal to Prigozhin ….wagner:
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CulU95WhLK8
        https://vk.com/wall-42523180_185582?ysclid=ljbaq9yo9z653061698&z=video-45395769_456249024%2F12343bb728450df6ee%2Fpl_post_-42523180_185582
        https://t.me/orchestra_w/6590

        1. Hello Alexander , good to see you back . I have been on a self imposed exile on the Ukraine issue to avoid unneeded altercation , primarily because I have no skin in the game . I commented only because Ron asked for comments and since the Western MSM was falsely pumping it up as ” the downfall of Putin ” . That is why I gave the timeline of 48 hours before this would be all over . Thanks for the info provided in the latter post . Be well .

          1. and with news that Prigozhin has been “exiled” to Belarus (truly removed from board? just a redirection of troops?), HiH’s warning that this might not be as big of an event as initially thought (seems to have) turned out to be correct. let’s keep this in mind the next time we feel like going ballistic when unpopular opinions are expressed.

            1. Just requires minor attention from an international source.
              Pay attention comrades.

          2. Thank you for your answer. I often go to the forum, I am interested in the topic of peak oil, I have been following this for more than 20 years, I think that the future of mankind depends on the availability of energy. I do not believe in the apocalypse, but I understand that tragic changes will occur with the peak of oil and other energy sources. I don’t write here because many people don’t like my presence. I saw Ron’s message and took this opportunity. About the situation in the ruling elites of the Russian Federation and the struggle of clans, one can only guess about the reliability of the leaks, I can’t judge, there are rumors that the Yeltsin Shoigu clan is the most peaceful and prone to negotiations, and Prigozhin (he probably had some kind of support until 24.06.) is the most bellicose. If the rebellion had succeeded, then the army would have increased 5 times, and all production would have taken military rails as under Stalin. Putin has great support from the population because he overcame the shortcomings ” democracy.” That’s what I’m talking about since Yeltsin’s time, corruption has reached its limits in the election of governors, candidates who have invested more money in pre-election companies won, then they plundered the budget through contracts, all the governors of those times became millionaires and bought real estate abroad. Putin changed this by becoming to recommend their candidates, trusted people, these candidates usually win. This has led to improvements in road infrastructure and other things. This is brief and only a part. Below I will place part of a private message from one general of the Russian Federation with a description of Prigozhin and his attitude towards Utkin. I apologize to the guys for Russian propaganda.Prigozhin is the second Pinochet. Here:
            I spoke with Yevgeny Prigozhin only once by phone – the communication did not give any exhaustive idea of him as a person. But later, when the campaign with the recruitment of convicts began, I learned a little more about him as a person. There was a story when, at a meeting, Prigozhin began to demand that a thousand prisoners be commissioned a day, and the PMC manager in charge of the project objected that three hundred people was the ceiling. The manager reasoned soberly, based on a real assessment of the possibilities, but the all-powerful owner did not like the answer, and Prigogine’s personal immediately twisted the guy and beat him half to death. For three days we thought that they would kill him, but a miracle happened: Utkin took his old comrade away from the boss, and soon he, having come to his senses, moved to fight in the forty-fifth airborne brigade.

            This incident told me everything: I made an approximate psycho-portrait of Prigozhin, and in every office I began to warn of a growing threat. It was clear to me that a person with such manners serves only his own interests. I remember that a few months ago, in a conversation with Dima Steshin, I shared my opinion about the situation with Wagner and the likely consequences, moreover, the PMC itself did not cause me concern – Prigozhin and how he could use the PMC caused fear. I treated the Wagnerites themselves as Russian soldiers who, for obvious reasons, chose not to fight in the Ministry of Defense, and fought excellently.

            I always cringed when I saw how the figure of Prigozhin was erected on a pedestal. Either he builds a church and he is praised for it, then he is against corruption and mediocrity … At the same time, it was completely clear that he does not support the company on his own and receives everything that he requires. They describe a case: the deputy commander of the Airborne Forces, long before the splashing out of the conflict between Prigozhin and the Moscow Region, stood like a schoolboy at his desk with approved applications for the supply of weapons, and waited for Prigozhin to get acquainted. Releasing the general, Prigozhin handed him a mocking chevron with the inscription “Pig troops” and said: here, give it to your boss … This episode also formed part of my understanding of Prigozhin’s personality and the nature of his conflict with the military, where arrogance, as a character trait, also played its role.

            Familiar with my own demons, which the Church and my heavenly patrons help me cope with, I understood what kind of hell is inside this person, and I understood what awaits us in the end. Even realizing that few people listen to me, I began to write about the fact that power should not be in private hands, that it will eventually obey the one who owns it … Someone heard me, someone did not, but yesterday I received more than one message that how right I was. What I was waiting for happened. Only the Lord averted trouble from us – earthly forces were not capable.
            If you manage to deceive someone, don’t think that the person you deceived is a fool. You’ve just been trusted more than you deserve.

            Once Utkin was hunted by all and sundry. Utkin, who does not know, is the founder of Wagner, where Wagner is, in fact, Utkin’s call sign. But Utkin was brought to the president – it was in the fifteenth year, or something – and the light saw a picture of Utkin, a number of his comrades and Vladimir Putin. With this picture, Putin, as it were, covered the unfortunate paratrooper with his omophorion, which evoked “quivering” feelings of the security forces, who saw Utkin as a threat to public safety.
            Then the president covered him up, believing the man and those who recommended him – now Utkin thanked the president. Well, the hand of the feeder is often bitten, and we know what they are called.

    5. The West is just so much better at civil-military relations. This just further demonstrates the hollowness of Russian hyper-masculine propaganda. Visible cracks have appeared in Russian intra elite competition.

      My forecast- The Russian Convicts will kill the Russian War Criminals and the west just lowers the expectations in Russian leadership from a washed up spy to a caterer running the place.

      In the meantime Ukraine will prob slot a few more lofty field officers who mess up secure comms and show too much operational silhouette.

    6. https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=249118

      Karl with an interesting take on the events in Russia.

      “It is entirely reasonable that if Putin is deposed the US and NATO will be given a 24 hour ultimatum to remove everything they have to the Polish border or beyond and if they don’t it and the land under it will be destroyed with tactical nuclear weapons.”/b>

      1. Don’t hold your breath on Putin being removed.
        You will not be with us.

        Hint:
        Both Prigozhin and Putin are nightmares

        1. “You will not be with us.”

          Karl said it not me. Why won’t I be with us?

      2. So Russia’s gonna nuke Ukraine cuz Putin gets toppled? Who’s gonna order that, Prigozhin or Shoygu?

        1. No one is going to Nuke Ukraine—-

          And Putin will not be toppled.
          Of course, I have been wrong before.

        2. Would you allow Chinese nukes in Tijuana, Mexico?

          Karl thinks Putin is moderate compared to some of his Kremlin Kompromats.

          Assasinating anyone who disagrees with you doesn’t seem moderate to me.

          I don’t know myself.

          1. What Putin can assert in Ukraine and what USA can assert in Tijuana are two very different things. I’m not justifying it. I’m explaining it.

            1. Mexico is far more progressive than Russia or the USA.
              Coming back from Mexico to the USA is quite startling, if you have been gone a while.

    7. I’ll try to answer. The conflict between the parties Wagner-Russian Defense Ministry, headed by Shoigu, flared up a long time ago. It got into the public sphere after the strike of American fighters on PMC Wagner and the Assad government forces in Syria near Hashim on February 7, 2018. Then the Americans requested through communication channels to prevent conflicts with The Russian Federation of Russians about crossing the demarcation line from the Syrian government. Representatives of the Russian Ministry of Defense replied: “ours are not there.” Based on this information, the Americans made a decision and delivered a powerful blow to Wagner and the Syrian forces, they had heavy losses. Relations continued to deteriorate. All the command staff of PMCs is represented by former military personnel who transferred from the Ministry of Defence or were dismissed from there. Approximately from the autumn of 2024, demands began to appear to provide PMCs with ammunition, accompanied by insults to the leadership of the Ministry of Defence in the person of Gerasimov and Shoigu, the expressions were as offensive as possible. A number of generals of the Armed Forces were dissatisfied with the relationship between superiors and subordinates, the level of training of the infantry, the level of planning and leadership of the operation. The methods of leadership were called: “rewarding those who do not participate, punishing the innocent.”. A number of high-ranking generals were dissatisfied with this. The methods of leadership were called: “rewarding the non-participants punishing the innocent.” The leaders of the areas of military operations, respected subordinates were often removed without further appointment, some of them shone in Prigozhin’s entourage. The opposition to the leadership grew in the army. From Prigozhin’s public speeches, it followed that the Ministry of Defense had stopped communicating with him, it was not clear how they interacted. 06/23/2018 Prigozhin made threats to the leadership of the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff in social networks with a demand to meet in Rostov, at the same time equipment and personnel of PMCs began to move to Rostov, they blocked the headquarters of the leadership of military operations in Ukraine there, and also captured the most important airfield where the Russian Air Force was based. After that, columns of equipment and parts of PMCs moved towards Moscow, there were more than 400 vehicles, including tanks on tracks and armored vehicles and the Pantsyr air defense system. On the morning of 24, Putin issued an order to return to their places of deployment. The order was ignored⚡️🇬🇧⚡️Russian rebellion is senseless and merciless

      In the heat of the events of the past two days, the rebellion seemed to many, and then it was officially declared an attempt to overthrow the government in the Russian Federation.

      As it is now clear, this was an extremely harsh way to convey Prigozhin’s opinion about the need for a “different” management of the Russian army (the need to dismantle the Shoigu Yeltsin clan)☝🏻

      From about 10 am on the 24th, the crisis became more controlled. The advance of the columns to Moscow was slowed down, but not strictly blocked, no one ATGMed them – bidding was already underway and both sides showed a desire to agree. The first positive signal came when at 11 the Millerovo airfield was unblocked for flights to the NVO zone.

      Of the general actions of the Russian army, only the VKS got out. Helicopters and airplanes continued to fly, there were strikes on the highways.

      If the “infantry” received an order “not to interfere”, then the VKS was ordered to work. But someone gave it, this order☝️, despite the ongoing auction. And the pilots, regardless of the losses, complied with the order.

      Peskov announced that the personnel issues of the Moscow Region were not the subject of discussion between Batka and Prigogine. This will enable Putin to make (like) independent personnel decisions on the Russian Defense Ministry, if they, of course, will be.

      In fact, Prigozhin so wanted to change his PMC for general changes in the Russian army, by removing Shoigu. It is not certain that he succeeded. Let’s look at personnel decisions.

      The unsullied Wagnerites will merge into the Moscow Region. The leadership of the PMC, headed by him, will leave for Belarus, where he will work.

      The Lukashenka-Prigozhin connection, by the way, is very strong from a managerial point of view and interesting.

      RESULTS:

      🇺🇦 got two days of triumph. TsIPSO bounced back in full. The failures of the summer offensive have been overwhelmed by the media;

      🇺🇦The PMC owner has lost his asset and will no longer be able to contribute to the war.

      🇬🇧The Russian Federation suffered a heavy reputational blow, but was able to prevent a catastrophic scenario;

      🇬🇧The Russian Ministry of Defense, and the government as a whole, long before the rebellion, lost the media war between CIPSO (which is already familiar) and PMCs. Part of society and part of the army were not ready for battles with the Wagnerites;

      🇬🇧The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation will be replenished with 20 thousand experienced fighters of the already former PMC.

      It turns out that 15 servicemen of the Russian Federation (including 13 pilots) paid for the reports of arguments about problems in the Moscow Region with their lives.

      Can you imagine how rotten the system is if Prigozhin had to stake the fate of the country in order to convey his arguments, and he was heard🧩

      The civil war, the catastrophe of the front and the loss in the war did not happen, only thanks to the responsibility of both sides. All the same, the desire to agree, it must be admitted, was both.

  21. One theory I read stated that the Prigozhin’s rebellion could have a couple of goals 1) to shift blame to the Department of Defense (true patriots vs bloated bureaucrats), 2) to elevate Prigozhin (already an oligarch) into the highest reaches of the DoD, 3) subsequently, blame the failures of Ukrainian invasion onto the DoD (i.e. putin was misled), 4) give Putin an exit strategy from the war. I literally have no idea if this is true, though the theory was supported by various tweets from Prigozhin basically blaming DoD and saying (crucially) that the JUSTIFICATIONS for the war itself were not true and lies told by DoD to Putin.

  22. Some Wagner vehicles I saw pictured in the streets of Rostov and along the M4 highway in Lipetsk Oblast had Luhansk People’s Republic license plates. Perhaps Luhansk People’s Republic is providing Prigozhin a new home and recruitment/personnel base outside of Russia.

    Russia is losing the systems competition with The West, obviously. It would do those that follow a collapse blog no harm to know that political fragmentation is the likely outcome.

    2. Putin will now have to act out, in order to reassert the message of absolute control to the populace.
      Some of that acting out will be behind the scenes of course, but we should expect some very visible public displays as well.

      One commentator said that he’d strongly advise that Prigozhin stays on the first floor in Belarus.

  23. Mercenary armies are a great evil. It gives nations that deploy them the ability to deny responsibility for atrocities against civilians.
    And someday Blackwater or its offspring may be deployed at home…against you, or you.
    And they may make their own decisions on a large scale, independent or contrary to civilian government oversight or direction.
    How do you put the evil genie back in the bottle?

    ‘Blackwater: The Rise of the World’s Most Powerful Mercenary Army’

    1. “And someday Blackwater or its offspring may be deployed at home…against you”

      Even if they’re not they’ll make up stories that they were. Sniper turned bullshit artist turned fertilizer Chris Kyle claims to have murdered American citizens who were looting after a natural disaster. It was bullshit. PMC’s are fuckin loser magnets.

      1. “PMC’s are fuckin loser magnets.”

        Not surprised to hear that report. But a loser mob like them can be a very loose cannon when a leader takes them for a ride.

      1. Hi HinH,

        Every once in a while I’m in complete agreement with you…… not very often, but this is one of those times.

    2. Most countries are going to have to get used to a demographic contraction.
      Thats how you ‘grow down’ to match your resources.

    1. HT , USA = United States of Amnesia — Gore Vidal . In the last 10 years majority of the ” Spelling Bee ” contests have been won by Asian Americans . Makes me go —hmmmm .

      1. My niece, who is asian, won so many spelling bee contests—–

  26. No surprises here.

    ECOLOGICAL DOOM-LOOPS: WHY ECOSYSTEM COLLAPSES MAY OCCUR MUCH SOONER THAN EXPECTED

    Around the world, rainforests are becoming savanna or farmland, savanna is drying out and turning into desert, and icy tundra is thawing. Indeed, scientific studies have now recorded “regime shifts” like these in more than 20 different types of ecosystem where tipping points have been passed. Around the world, more than 20% of ecosystems are in danger of shifting or collapsing into something different. These collapses might happen sooner than you’d think. Humans are already putting ecosystems under pressure in many different ways—what we refer to as stresses. And when you combine these stresses with an increase in climate-driven extreme weather, the date these tipping points are crossed could be brought forward by as much as 80%. This means an ecosystem collapse that we might previously have expected to avoid until late this century could happen as soon as in the next few decades.

    https://phys.org/news/2023-06-ecological-doom-loops-ecosystem-collapses-sooner.html

  27. https://cleantechnica.com/2023/06/25/the-unstoppable-force-of-agrivoltaics-now-with-tiltable-solar-panels/

    Unstoppable is quite a stretch, but this will absolutely be a BIG THING within another decade or so, assuming Old Man Business As Usual remains on his feet.

    It’s not going to work on the wide open spaces a gazillion miles from town, where grain is produced by the trainload…. no need for the juice out there for the most part, and no transmission lines.

    But it can and will work like a charm in places suitable for fruit and vegetable production, with markets for both.

    And it’s NOT farmers that are opposed to solar farms…….excepting maybe a few gentlemen and lady farmers who have tons of money and just want the countryside preserved as is.

    Working farmers are always ready to take a look at new ways to make a buck.

    The real potential, early on, is to keep money at home and provide local employment rather than sending money out of countries that have to import fuel to generate electricity.

    Subsidizing agrivoltiacs makes a ton of sense in such countries.

  28. Above, HIGHTREKKER said:

    Mexico is far more progressive than Russia or the USA.
    Coming back from Mexico to the USA is quite startling, if you have been gone a while.

    Fascinating. Can you give us some examples?

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