114 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum July 3”

  1. https://interestingengineering.com/company-power-world-dig-deepest-holes

    Obviously such new technologies can work, in theory.

    But I don’t see why it wouldn’t work using current day oil drilling technology, if a method could be found to put in enough pipe with enough surface area to absorb sufficient heat.

    Pushing water down, with steam coming up is a simple process.

    The problem this particular puff piece is that it says nothing at all about what sort of equipment must be installed at the bottom of the hole, once it’s created.

    1. A way to gain energy from the depth of the earth that may be easier is the ground source heat pump.

      I have some friends that wanted this solution, and was told that they would be drilling 300 meters below the ground to source heat instead of the suspected 100 meters. It is a costly solution, but I guess they can afford it. It increases the longevity of the ground based heat to 30 years or more probably, depending on the local nature of the ground beneath the property. They were told the specific conditions for heat generation was not so important since the proposal was to drill so deep. Probably a good way for wealthy people to invest in energy security for the future in the colder latitudes I guess. And a lot easier than sourcing geothermal heat in a massive scale. Just the volcanic prone areas are utilised for that as of now (Iceland, Indonesia, Philippines, California and Italy foremost). In those places you just have to drill a few hundred meters to get the water to boil.

      1. Air source eff at fractional capacity can approach ground as long as delta T is less than 50C. VRF Variable refrigerant flow tech is amazing. Just lower the fan speed. Now if you have an old church or building that needs tons of capacity, ground source is the long term solution.

          1. Hickory

            Sweden’s big advantage when it comes to energy is that they can burn “trash” but even more so wood residue or wood resources outright (60-70% of their land mass is covered by forests). Germany is natural forest land many places. So, they can facilitate using renewables through heat pumps in the power plants together with using trash and forest residue as fuel, to provide central heating. Much like hydro power can accommodate the intermittency of wind and solar power. Those countries are not sleeping when it comes to solutions, that is for sure.

        2. You are probably more proficient than me in this area. There is a push towards air to air heat pumps. However, they don’t work very well when needed if temperatures fall beneath -10c. Hence the interest for ground based heat for the long term for those big homes that can afford it (and in the freezing winter zone) or probably big spaced other buildings as you mention. They can justify drilling down that deep.

          1. At 66 N (Nome equivalent) shallow ground source works excellent, in my case 3 feet below ground collector pipes, no need to drill into bedrock (which in some cases chill out after 10-15 years, but “reloading” with solar water panels during summer works excellently) So heat pumps might Edit, will, keep some of us warm.

            1. Laplander,

              That is fortunate for you that shallow ground is working that well. It is energy demanding to live at those latitudes.

            2. As mentioned before, used to be 3 m3 of heating oil (smuggled in from finland, due to lower fuel taxes, for some reason, even though we also joined EU, so should be the same price and tax…)
              Anyway, now less than 10 kwhs per year with the heat pump, roughly one third, so I´m happy.

            3. Typo alert: the math works at 10mWh/yr.

              3 M3 oil = 792 gallons * 40.6 kWh/gl = 32,155.2kWh

              So, approximately 10,000 kWh/year.

            4. Bob, correct, meant 10k kWhs of course. They are efficient, but not that efficient…
              Another relevant question might be, at what nat gas price, for those in the US and Europe that use it for heating while the electricity comes from other sources, at some other price, will a heat pump be economical?
              (failed the multivariable exam…)

      2. Also Kenya has a lot of geothermal. I think its geothermal is the highest by percent of total electricity generation in the world.

    2. OFM that technology/company bears watching.
      If successful it will make E.Musk very jealous.

    1. Sustainability may be found, however it will be at much lower levels of global population and industry.

      1. Agree we are headed for much lower levels of population and industry. It will be incredibly difficult times. If you look at the impact of Covid and the Ukraine war on population growth it is invisible. world population has increased by some 150 million since the start of the epidemic and we have the spectacle of politicians around the world (and those behind the scene who pull their strings) advocate for people to have more children because it is ” good for business”. Desperately poor countries like Yemen and Somalia still seem to have increasing populations – how bad does it have to get before population starts to decrease?

        1. Really really bad.
          I don’t want to see it.
          Might have to check out early (earlier than most people choose to).

          1. But wouldn´t it be interesting to see how the movie ends?
            Thats my motivation. But I might regret it…

            1. “But wouldn´t it be interesting to see how the movie ends?”
              Some reasonable models might be Hiroshima or Stalingrad.

  3. Food for thought

    Transporting food generates whopping amounts of carbon dioxide
    “Moving fruit and vegetables in refrigerated vehicles is particularly emissions-intensive.”
    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01766-0

    I feel that shops displaying food in open cabinet refrigeration is also quite wasteful.

    1. There’s zero hope of large cities becoming self sufficient in food within the foreseeable future.
      But there may be ways to move food from where it’s grown to where the people are using substantially less energy.

      I can see trains making a big comeback, and ” road trains” of the sort you see on You Tube about Australia could be made to work, in times to come, by setting aside a lane for them on some major highways.

      And it’s possible to build trucks that are much lighter, and far more aerodynamic than at present, meaning they can haul larger loads without too much wear and tear on the pavement while also using a lot less energy per mile.

      Automated or self driving trucks in a dedicated lane could run very close together, and slower, if time permits, and use even less energy.

      1. I can see the survivors getting used to a lot of root veg in the winter. My mom saw an orange at Christmas. My gran raised 3 kids without a refrigerator. If my great gran could see five isles of the average modern grocery store she’d think were the happiest people to ever inhabit the planet.

    2. They key is to avoid moving water.
      Many parts of this country can grow their apples, plums, vegetables, root crops locally.
      May not be as inexpensive, uniform and big as the globalized versions most people in US have become accustomed to, but it works.
      Goats and chickens can be raised locally in most of the country as well.

      Moving grain or flour from far away, with water content of about 14%, is much more viable. Add back water on site.

    1. Death of Democracy in America
      “What are they afraid of? Well, they’re afraid to lose a bit of their money and power, and they’re especially afraid of a principled person like Matt Hoh, who actually believes what he says, and says what he believes.”
      “Matt Hoh is a disabled combat veteran who ably served his country, who is indeed still serving it to the best of his ability, with a mixture of candor and courage that has won me over and plenty of people in North Carolina and elsewhere. And we can’t allow that! so sayeth establishment Democrats.”
      https://www.laprogressive.com/.amp/election-reform-campaigns/death-of-democracy-in-america

      Meanwhile Biden Bros strut around telling us the GOP are Nazis. It beggars belief.

      America is a political sewer pipe. Americans get the government they deserve. And on that basis I anticipate no effective measures to combat peak oil and climate change induced famine and collapse; only sycophants hoisting Musk & Bezos to their shoulders as the rising tide laps at our necks.

      1. Sorry, but if you want to see what supposedly principled candidates are capable of look up how “saint” Ralph Nader succeeded in Florida in 2000. He gave us George W. Bush. If you really care about preserving democracy in the US it must be done within the Democratic party. There is no other safe place. This country does not respond well to third party efforts at the national level. The non-right wing part of the country has a long row to hoe and not much time to plant and harvest. Republicans have brilliantly gobbled up state governments and now are in the process of weeding out even their own that have any ethics. The Democratic party leadership has, as you say, lost it’s way yet there is no other choice but to move the party back to its roots as the party of the working class and rebuild the country on the basis of a society built on a thriving ecosystem, a humane value system and a healthy sense of community.

    2. You can point out all kinds of huge shortcomings of either Democrats or Republicans (or the National Coalition Party or the Green Party, whatever).
      That is extremely easy, with a huge smorgasbord to feed your angst.

      The harder part is making the choice of who you will vote for…or against.

      Although the choice has rarely been difficult or confusing throughout my life. For me.

      1. The hardest part is to get any significant number of people to do more than just complain and grudgingly vote every four years. Good people need to get involved, help to get good people elected and then hold their feet to the fire to do the right thing. There are any number of organizations you can join or, at worst, start going to meetings of your local Democratic party organization. One visit will confirm that you are at least as competent as the guys running the show.

    3. Synopsis- the Democrats care little for Democracy

      After three-fourths of the Republican party tried to overthrow Democracy in an attempted coup, and after the most corrupt mob boss president in US history led that coup, how can any human being be so goddamn dumb as stupid as to make a statement like that? Even a damn fool can see which party doesn’t give a flying fuck about Democracy.

      You are pissing me off Survivalist, enough of your very stupid right-wing bullshit. Take it somewhere else.

      1. Advocating for a left wing candidate on the ballot in NC is “right-wing bullshit” now? Twist it how you like Ron.
        https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doublespeak

        I’m a lefty, because I support equitable policies and measures to mitigate climate change, I suppose. And I’d like to see more of Lefties on the ballot. So would the required number of people in NC, as per The Rules. But they can’t have it, thanks to the Democrats. It’s easy to see. It’s unfortunate that many commenters on The Worlds Leading Collapse Blog™ don’t entertain more than two options on the ballot (Right & Righter), or indeed distinguish The Left from The Right in the same manner as everyone else on the planet. And on that basis I suggest America is doomed. Cuz the Dims & the Repugs, together or alone, ain’t gonna do anything but hit the accelerator and drive the car into the ditch.

        Interesting how Maddy can comment calling the GOP Nazis with no pushback, and I advocate a left wing candidate on the ballot in NC, and I’m presumably a Nazi too. Absurd. Last time I checked Canada had 6 Parties on the Federal ballot, and no major Nazi problems that I can detect.

        1. Oh bullshit, you said this: Synopsis- the Democrats care little for Democracy=

          Any goddamn fool who has watched the news since November 2020 knows full well who doesn’t give a shit about Democracy. I really don’t know what is happening in North Carolina, but I do know what happened on January 6th, 2001. And I do know who has defended that coup attempt ever since then. And if you think that crowd was defending Democracy then you have rocks in your head. And if you think the Democrats are not defending Democracy in challenging those fanatic fascists then you need to see a psychiatrist because you are just fucking crazy.

          2. I was a Democrat all of my life but over the last 15 years my opinion has changed. Not that I consider myself a Republican either. I hated Bush for the endless wars and the influence of the deep state and the degradation of laws protecting freedom and the constitution. I also hated Obama and his continuation of the endless wars in Middle East & his threats to personal freedoms. I now consider myself a Libertarian and I’m very anti war and anti deep state (a body of people, typically influential members of government agencies or the military, believed to be involved in the secret manipulation or control of government policy). Interesting – I always admired Elon Musk for his fantastic innovations as an entrepreneur and find it fascinating that he recently said that he’s going to vote for Republicans, saying the Democrats had become the party of “division & hate.”

            1. he recently said that he’s going to vote for Republicans, saying the Democrats had become the party of “division & hate.”

              That is the most outrageous thing I have read in weeks. Fox news preaches division & hate 24 hours a day. Trump has preached nothing but division & hate since he came down that damn escalator. The Republican party has become the party of division & hate. Nothing could be more obvious than that. Musk is too smart to say something that dumb. He must have had an ulterior motive.

            2. This isn’t sophisticated for me.

              I’m a gay atheist, and proud of it. The repugs want me dead. There ‘s hate & division for you.

              I’d vote for a drooling hobo rather than a republican.

        2. You’re not a lefty Survivalist. You’re just pushing Putin’s “learned helplessness” crap.

          1. ‘They’ll do whatever they can to keep us off.’ NC Green Party faces pushback in ballot bid

            “At least one person signing the petitions received a call from someone claiming to be with the Green Party who asked them to retract their signature. In an audio clip obtained by the N&O of this call, the caller is asked three times if they are with the Green Party and responds “yes” each time. The language they use matches the language used in the DSCC texts that Hoh shared on Twitter.”
            https://amp.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/article262921498.html

            As far as I can tell the Democrats don’t like anti democratic tactics, sentiments and voter suppression directed at them by GOP. But aren’t shy to use, or let pass, the same against the Green Party. On and that basis I don’t expect too much in the way of solutions from American politics. What an embarrassment.

            Matthew Hoh
            https://www.internationalpolicy.org/people/matthew-hoh

            https://www.matthewhohforsenate.org/

            Democrats sound scared; GOP are the Nazis and the Green Party isn’t worth the ballot, they’ll have you believe.

            1. I was a Green Party activist in California from about 2000 until 2008. I met some really nice people. I got a friend elected to the local city council. But it doesn’t take a genius to realize that third party candidates on the left are a gift to the Republicans. Like it or not our national, and even state level, election systems are only capable of electing candidates from one of the two ugly parties with very, very rare exceptions. This is no time to attempt that. I’ve been working with other activists to get electable Democrats in office since 2008.

        3. The reason that the Republican party gets associated with Nazism (and rightfully so)
          is primarily because they enable the white supremacist movement.
          It is not complicated. Violent white supremacists.
          There are many other secondary reasons.

          And they are pegged as being anti-democratic [rightfully so] when they have completely stonewalled
          the John R. Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act of 2021 and the Freedom to Vote Act, for example.
          They can’t stand the idea of one person one vote- each with equal representation.
          They have associated themselves with false conspiracy about voting fraud, and even voted to re-elect that big threat to democracy.

          It is not a subtle phenomena dude.
          The current republican party and voter has gone down a fascist and theocratic tunnel that leads far away from a civil society.
          The voters who justified pulling the lever for Trump used the same mentality that those who voted for Hitler did.

      2. “Doublespeak” is apropos. Democrats actually would prefer direct democracy, one person, one vote… hence their name. Republicans on the other hand prefer republican government, which is government to the highest bidder. Republics can be oligarchy, aristocracy, theocracy, even monarchy depending on who has the power to install the representatives. Republics are great as long as you fall into the favored group.

        The US is a far cry from a democracy. Witness the current excuse for a SCOTUS. Definitely not democratic. The ruling majority of which was nominated by POTUSs who lost the popular vote and installed by a non-representative senate chamber using … I don’t know what you would call the underhanded tactics employed by McConnell other than anti-democratic. Upshot now is the SCOTUS is handing down edicts that go against the will of the majority of the country. THAT is undemocratic, perfectly republican however.

        A ruling by the SCOTUS this fall will rubber-stamp the Big Steal and push us even further from democracy, perhaps permanently. They will green light state legislatures taking back federal office voting rights from citizens and install “representatives” as they see fit. That’s right, they will give the trump coup conspiracy their imprimatur. Combine that with expanding the “rights” of legislators to decided their own voters via gerrymander and you can pretty well kiss “freedom” goodby for this iteration of America.

        https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/supreme-court-independent-state-legislature-case-1376618/

        1. “We don’t want THAT much democracy … lol” ~ DNC

          ‘Blatantly Partisan’: NC Green Party Candidate Slams State Dems for Denying Ballot Petition
          https://scheerpost.com/2022/07/06/blatantly-partisan-nc-green-party-candidate-slams-state-dems-for-denying-ballot-petition/amp/

          More than 40,000 N.C. voters have changed their political party this year
          “Controversy has erupted lately, though, that citizens who’ve signed the Greens’ petition are being contacted by a group associated with national Democrat operative Marc Elias. The group is encouraging them to remove their names from the petition.”
          https://www.carolinajournal.com/more-than-40000-n-c-voters-have-changed-their-political-party-this-year/

          1. Oh get over this damn Green Party. Regardless of what is happening with the Green Party, or what is happening in North Carolina, the majority of the Republican party has turned into a fascist, Democracy hating, Trump ass-kissing mob. And a Liberterian is just a Republican on steroids.

            1. Libertarians are a lot of things, including lefties, who advocate for equitable and egalitarian policies.

              https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Left-libertarianism

              I’m personally more interested in Matthew’s ability to articulate a policy, express a persuasive argument and share a positive vision with voters; which is also perhaps why the Democrats are concerned, and have put so much time and effort into an anti-democracy campaign aimed at denying him his right to be on the ballot.

              https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rights

              Green Party petition signer asked by Democratic canvasser to revoke signature
              https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article263231658.html

              Third party? America doesn’t even have a second party
              “85% of Americans — including 92% of self-identified Republicans and 78% of self-identified Democrats — say “things in this country are headed in the wrong direction.”
              Meanwhile, notional support for a “third” political party remains high — 62% as of last year’s Gallup Survey”
              https://richmondobserver.com/opinion/opinion-third-party-america-doesnt-even-have-a-second-party.html

              It seems a lot of us American folks commenting here are perhaps in the 92% of self-identified Republicans and 78% of self-identified Democrats — who agree “things in this country are headed in the wrong direction” (peak oil, climate change, ecological overshoot, mass ecocide/suicide, famine, whatever); but, alas, many remain with the 38% that don’t have notional support for a third political party,

              “If you always do what you always did, then you’ll always get what you always got” – Henry Ford

            2. Third party? America doesn’t even have a second party
              Two free market capitalist parties.

              Pepsi, Pepsi Lite
              But, our Repug friends are:
              “Republican Party: God, Guns, Forced Birth, and Strongmen”

              Lefty Libertarians?
              Anarchists on training wheels

            3. OK, that’s twice now in the last week you have made your cute stupid analogy. Do you have a problem with the freedom to choose your own career, purchases, home and life style ? or would you like to leave that to someone like Trump ?

              Most humans are followers by training. Critical thinking is a learned behavior. The America you have enjoyed is on life support, code red. If you take off your blindfold, you will find yourself at the end of plank with a sword in your back.

              Your indifference is the gateway to fascism.

              Milk, Bleach

            4. Hightrekker- you have often repeated that there is little difference between the democratic and republican party, and now have clarified that is is about both being
              “Two free market capitalist parties.”
              I also add that both have been similarly anti-communist/anti-Russia.

              But in many other ways they couldn’t be more different. If you weren’t a white male christian you would see the difference clearly- that is why the high majority of Jewish, Muslim, Buddhist, Hindu, Atheist (?), Asian, Hispanic, Black, and mixed race peoples have voted Democratic- its about human rights and protection from the tyranny of the majority.
              Women rights, environmental protection, fight against wealth concentration among the few (Elizabeth Warren is a warrior on this and I voted for her in the last primary season), are a few of the issues where the two parties are clearly on the opposite side of the coin.

              In regard to both being “Two free market capitalist parties.”, true with a big caveat-
              The democrats have consistently been in favor of much stronger regulation to help prevent extreme concentration of wealth and power among the few. They have been fought at every step of the way by republicans.

              These are not subtle differences.

            5. If you weren’t a white male christian

              Christian? Please, that is a low blow—
              I’ll ask my Jewish wife if she has any insight on this—

              But I do have a view that was shaped by a UC education, and growing up in CA in the 60’s.

              I’ve been back in The States for 5 years, possibly a record.

            6. pardon sir. My comment was uncalled for.
              Its always dangerous to generalize and label, I must remember.

            7. “Most humans are followers by training. Critical thinking is a learned behavior. The America you have enjoyed is on life support, code red. If you take off your blindfold, you will find yourself at the end of plank with a sword in your back.” ~ Madeline H

              To put it mildly, I find your argument unpersuasive, and, actually, I have my eyes on bigger problems most of the time.

              Here’s an article on the real fascists trying the bottoms up thing, if you’re interested. They’re called Patriot Front; they’re not Republicans, trust me; they’re a shirt movement outfit that’s into street brawling and looking stupid. There’s a few such outfits. If you want to fight fascism there’s your cue, but as it is there ain’t a lot of Democrats actively opposing Patriot Front, and you’re still bitching about Trump like I should be scared… lol; absurd!

              U-Haul Full of White Supremacists, Preparing to Disrupt Pride Event, Arrested in Idaho
              https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/06/white-supremacists-pride-event-arrested-in-idaho/amp

              North Carolina has 3 right of center candidates on the ballot; Democrats, Libertarian (Right) and Republican. Why they don’t have Green Party Candidate Matthew Hoh on the ballot is because of the anti-democracy actions of the Democratic Party, nobody else. It’s easy to see; although, perhaps hard to admit, on the account of ya’ll being so anti fascist lol

              Powerful Democratic law firm intervened in NC Green Party certification
              https://amp.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article263216143.html

              I wonder if a Democrat has ever considered, that the citizens who suffer from Republican efforts to suppress their voting, might actually prefer to vote for someone else besides them. I would assume not.

              https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_efforts_to_restrict_voting_following_the_2020_presidential_election

            8. Survivalist.
              On this issue- making a choice between Republican and Democratic leadership at the Federal government level-
              I think your comments put you in fairyland, or more appropriately called
              fantasy-land I suppose.
              It seems that in the end you just leave the choice up to all the other voters to make it for you.
              You have a lot more trust in their decision making than I do.

            9. “you just leave the choice up to all the other voters to make it for you” ~ Hick

              Is that what not voting Democrat is called these days? Better than being called a fascist I suppose. For after all, I’ve never consorted with those who would suppress voting rights or the choices on the ballot, and have never absolved those who do.
              I would beg to differ, though; I feel I have my finger quite firmly on the pulse of reality; drawing meaningful connections; not in fantasyland at all. Perhaps my not being acceptant of their fantasy solutions is why Democrats feel I am in fantasyland.
              I suggest that those in fantasyland are the ones who expect solutions vis vis the issues discussed here from either the Republicans or the Democrats; and on that basis, I don’t anticipate any solutions, and plan accordingly. Enjoy the famine; for some, knowing there is a Democrat in the White House, will perhaps ease it.
              Many here are quite good at constructing the problem definition, Doug L especially. But solutions, other than Vote Blue No Matter Who, seem pretty thin on the ground.

            10. Vote for who you want of course.
              For me its almost always Democratic.
              All I’m saying is that not making a choice for one of the two possible winners
              is just giving you the cover for saying- ‘its not my fault’.
              And with that you get what whatever the other guy chose for you.
              In effect, you gave him/her your vote.

    1. There have been recent studies that showed that falling carbon monoxide concentration in the atmosphere in the early years of this century led to more hydroxyl radical available for methane destruction and a shorter methane half-life. That may now be reversing as increased wild fire activity, especially from the more intense ones now becoming common, throws more CO higher up into the atmosphere.

      Something that I have been unable to figure out is the real impact of methane. If the immediate impact equivalence is 150 to 200 times that of carbon dioxide then wouldn’t 1900 ppb methane, if it is sustained through continual releases, equate to 285 to 380 ppm carbon dioxide, so the total equivalence would be 700 to 800 – well above twice pre-industrial, and nothing like what is normally quoted. I haven’t found any papers that go into how the equivalence of different gases is calculated in enough detail to reconcile this.

  8. ARCTIC TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASING FOUR TIMES FASTER THAN GLOBAL WARMING

    The study calculated the Arctic amplification index to be greater than 4 within the early decades of the 21st century, four times faster than the global mean and considerably more rapid than previous published research had determined using 30- to 40-year time intervals. These earlier studies pegged the index between 2 and 3.

    The study does not pinpoint a cause for these relatively sudden increases, but the authors speculate that contributing causes are probably sea ice and water vapor feedbacks combined with changes in how atmospheric and oceanic heat move into the Arctic. Future increases in the Arctic amplification index are likely to be smaller as the temperature difference between the Arctic and the tropics decreases.

    https://phys.org/news/2022-07-arctic-temperatures-faster-global.html

  10. In the past 30 years the global human carbon emission/fossil combustion was roughly equal to the entire CO2 excretion over the preceding entirety of human history.
    And in this next thirty-year period out to 2050 we will emit roughly the same amount again as we did in the last 30 years.

    In this period we will also achieve Peak Global Combustion [PGC]- the day upon which global human carbon emission will hit its highest level and then begin a slow decline.
    Many questions, aside from the month during which PGC will occur, come to mind.
    For example, at what point will the Terminal Deforestation Event [TDE] occur, and will it create a secondary peak?

    https://ieep.eu/news/more-than-half-of-all-co2-emissions-since-1751-emitted-in-the-last-30-years

  11. A Crisis Historian Has Some Bad News for Us:

    Adam Tooze, a historian of economic disaster, sees a combination of worrisome signs.

    As Tooze sees it, the forces of central-bank tightening, war, inflation, and climate change are reinforcing one another. He is offering no reassurance about where that might head—only the hope that perhaps this polycrisis might be knowable to us.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/07/adam-tooze-chartbook-substack-newsletter-inflation-crisis/661467/

    (subscription?)

  12. The airlines are going to be coming to the fed government demanding a big bailout again.
    Not enough money to pay good wages and the fuel cost too high, they say.

    Its overdue time to let the industry get smaller, much smaller.
    They can raise prices if they need to, as high as it takes to fund their business.
    If what was $400 becomes $1100- so be it.

    The aviation-industrial complex, and all the travelers buzzing around, is grossly overbuilt for this world.
    Energy peak is upon us, environmental destruction is in our wake, and soon the population will be approaching peak.

    its time to realize that flying around is not a routine part of living on earth.
    It is an aberration. A desperate attempt to buck entropy, an attempt that will fail.

    Its time to let the naked market take its toll, and that will be a downsizing trending towards phase out.

      1. I’m sure you are correct that the downsizing of this, and other, industries will be extremely tough to swallow.
        Ultimately, it will be the market that delivers the bad news.
        If more government bailouts come, it will just be a temporary attempt to avoid reckoning.
        At the expense of everyone else.

      2. It is not in anybody’s interest to crush the tourism industry. If it is likely to happen, so be it. But it can definitely be a slow grind. More local tourism based on smarter transportation (electric transportation, sea and rail). Having room for people to stay and meals to serve would not go away quickly. Especially since real estate investments have been so huge many places the last decades. Economic travel and vacation has a lot of slack for some time to come; just like the totality of the petrol based economy.

        1. The market will do the crushing- slow or fast.
          I am calling for no more tax payer bailouts of the aviation industry.

          Biofuel for air travel is an environmental disaster.

    2. It’s pollution and depletion versus jobs.

      The political establishment will go mostly for jobs, meaning that in the end, fuel shortages will hit all that much harder, plus the jobs will be lost FASTER at that time, making it even tougher to adapt to new conditions in resort areas.

      Maybe tourism can survive at a reduced scale by way of customers vacationing closer to home, and traveling more by train and bus.

  13. Global Plug-In Electric Car Sales Increased 55% In May 2022

    Global passenger plug-in electric car sales noticeably increased in May, which is a positive sign, considering challenging economy and supply issues.

    According to EV-Volumes data, shared by Jose Pontes, some 699,708 new passenger plug-in electric cars were registered in May, which is 55% more than a year ago. Market share amounted to about 12%, including 8.6% for all-electric cars.

    An interesting thing is that all-electric car sales are not only over two times higher than plug-in hybrids but also increase faster, while non-rechargeable hybrids are down for the second month in a row.

    I posted this article because it raises some interesting points.

    With increased visibility of EVs and public charging points, are people getting over the idea of range anxiety? (Where you gonna charge it if you’re running low?)

    All of the top ten for May (globally) are made in China. Two are Teslas but, a significant amount of them are made at the Shanghai Gigafactory. One is a Volkwagen that benefits from two manufacturing joint ventures in China.

    Of the top twenty year to date, only two are not manufactured in China and they are Korean. The top two are Teslas, the third is the $5,000 Wuling Hong Guang MINI EV (I have mentioned this in previou posts), the next five are made by BYD (a company that Warren Buffet has interests in), the ninth I have never heard of and the tenth is the Volkswagen ID.4. At number 19 is the Ford Mustang Mach-E which benefits from a joint manufacturing venture with a Chinese firm.

    The fact is that the largest car market in the world is experiencing very strong growth in EV sales.

    China Electric Car Market — 31% Market Share In May!

    Share-wise, with May showing another great performance, plugin vehicles hit 31% market share! Full electrics (BEVs) alone accounted for 23% of the country’s auto sales! This pulled the 2022 share to 25% (20% BEV).

    If electrification continues at this pace, this market will be BEV-based by 2025! Imagine that: the largest automotive market in the world being BEV-based in three years time!

    Another measure of the importance of this market is the fact that China alone represented over half of global plugin registrations last month.

    If I remember correctly, I made the point in the quote from the article below in a disscusion a long time ago (either here or on The Oil Drum).

    What differentiates China’s EV market from the others?

    Many Chinese customers can easily adapt to EVs because they have no prior car ownership experience and therefore there is no ‘switching cost’ involved. In contrast, the consumers in the western countries have years of experience driving internal combustion engine cars which makes them slow to change their behavior.

    This last link is for those that are curious about the safety of these tiny EVs. Wonder no more!
    Watch Wuling Hong Guang MINI EV Crash Test With Other EV

    The picture below is the car featured in the crash test above, the third best selling EV in the world for 2022 so far, based entirely on sales in China alone.

  14. Time:
    Albert Einstein once wrote: People like us who believe in physics know that the distinction between past, present and future is only a stubbornly persistent illusion. Time, in other words, he said, is an illusion.

    Many physicists since have shared this view, that true reality is timeless. But my next guest is not one of them…

    Interview (transcript) with scientist Lee Smolin:

    https://www.npr.org/2013/05/17/184775924/resetting-the-theory-of-time

  16. Sad but true.

    THE WORLD IS TURNING BACK TO COAL

    “Over the past year, wind turbines and solar panels have gotten costlier, but not to the same degree that fossil fuels have. According to a new study from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, renewables remain the cheapest form of power generation for two-thirds of the world’s population. These trends, it’s worth noting, may not hold for the rest of 2022. If some parts of the world enter a recession, as now seems possible, if not likely, then their emissions could fall. Regardless, the return to a more bellicose world, a less energy-secure world, means that more countries will turn to the energy sources—the fossil fuels—in their backyard. That means coal, the fossil fuel by far the most damaging to the climate and to human health, may burn for years to come.”

    https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2022/07/us-carbon-emissions-russian-invasion/661493/

      1. My personal opinion is that there will be a major shift away from dependency on suppliers of raw materials such as oil and rare earth metals by countries such as Russia and China, respectively.

        This makes nothing less than every day common sense, given the national security implications of being dependent on such countries that have muscle enough to throw their customers into economic black holes by simply cutting of exports.

        I will personally be more than happy to pay another five or ten bucks , or even fifty, if necessary, for a computer to have it built using materials and parts sourced from our FRIENDS, or domestically.

        It’s not that China couldn’t ruin us all by refusing to export rare earths……….

        China is in a position to dump such commodities or goods at such low prices that anytime a competitor in another country tries to get started is to depend on subsidies, which are not always forthcoming.

        But as far as oil is concerned, I’m reasonably sure nobody at all, not the Saudis nor anybody else, will ever again be in a position to start an oil price war……… unless maybe electric cars and trucks sell so fast that they cut into demand for oil faster than depletion cuts into supply.

          2. That was great!

            However, I don’t see China going away silently into the night.

            They have more submarines than the US Navy (albeit lesser quality).

            They just built their first self made air craft carrier.

            They have a significant growing nuclear arsenal.

            They have been busy locking up Energy Reserves and defending supply lines.

            A few hundred million starving lunatics running around, is a hell of a motivator.

  17. US Drought Monitor 7-7-2022:

    The proportion of the U.S. in drought increased this week to 44.3%, up almost 2 percentage points from last week and up 5 from 3 weeks ago.

    Drought now affects more than 118 million people.

    https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

  19. So far it’s only talk, but if the national drought situation continues to go downhill, there will eventually be some real political muscle behind proposals to move water a thousand miles or more from places where it’s plentiful to places where it’s precious.

    Such things will cost an arm and a leg, but maybe the real question is not whether we can afford them, but rather whether we can afford to be without them.

    Forty million people live in California, which would be back of the envelope only about twenty five bucks each per billion dollars spent on such a pipeline. Such estimates as I have seen run up to sixty billion.

    Double that, and it would be about three thousand per resident.

    Can we afford to be without it?

    Operation and maintenance would probably be in the ball park of three to five billion a year.

    How much would it cost the rest of us to have the California economy go belly up?

      1. This situation has sucked for about five years in Maine now. It seems as if summer weather/drought, which is to be expected July-August, arrives two/three months earlier than usual. No rain during the early growing season is devastating, but no one is talking about it. The best I could get out of an extension scientist, when I mentioned the recent history of spring droughts, was that there is no way to tell if this is a trend because “there is a lot of noise in the data.”

        It has been an unbelievable struggle to get crops up and running in the spring since about 2016.

        1. Thanks MIKE B, I thought it was just me.
          June is the wettest month in NWA Arkansas yet last year a June drought made it the driest month. It destroyed this gardeners corn crop. A 2022 June drought that is ongoing destroyed the 2022 crop.

        2. PNW here; this is the first summer in about 5 years that I haven’t been choking on forest fire smoke. I had been wearing 3M N95’s when doing yard work due to forest fire smoke for years. When COVID hit I was sitting on enough respiratory protection for extended family on three continents; my moms still kicking and she posted 1/2 my hoard to her sisters lol.

      2. Meanwhile the La Nina is causing record breaking floods here on the east coast of Australia.

    2. The Mississippi river could be partially diverted to the southern high plains, and or the great basin or the SW.
      It would take a lot of energy, and a huge amount of capital- political and ‘real’.
      I doubt the idea would get much traction from the M. river basin population.

      As a long time observer of water issues in Calif, I suspect that the state will eventually start buying out land owners with “rights” to the irrigation water, targeting the areas with less optimal soils. this already happens to some degrees, with restrictions in the dryer years.
      The situation for Utah, Nev, and AZ is harder to address since there is less agriculture to restrict.
      Many farmers will be forced to shift to less thirsty crops and to continue on with the trend towards mass scale implementation of drip irrigation.
      Lawns will continue to disappear.
      Even the rich might affected by water regulations some day.

      The political aspect of the western water wars has been a quagmire since the mid 1800’s, and that remains as big a story as ever. Its a huge lesson/example on unregulated and corrupt capitalism, as well as gross overshoot.

      And no- the states of Oregon, Washington, Idaho (and BC) will not agree to send any water south. It would be armed conflict.

      1. Hi Hickory,
        You’re probably right in that the political problems associated with moving lots of water across state lines will be much bigger barriers to doing it than paying for doing it.

    3. Aren’t there “Limits to Growth” for these large infrastructure projects? Seems like we are just digging ourselves deeper into a hole.
      Regarding water in California, this is largely an agriculture problem brought on by subsidies. I think we’ll be seeing the reversal of all this consolidation in ownership and land use patterns as the costs go up.

      1. Yep—
        Domestic water use in CA is only about 10%.
        4 crops use over 50%- Rice, Alfalfa, Cotton, and (forgot the 4th).
        If CA didn’t grow so much of what the rest of the US needs, it wouldn’t be an issue.

    1. This truck will be used on a dedicated route less than twenty miles round trip, making it possible to charge it at it’s destination several times a day.

      The day of the heavy duty electric truck just isn’t here yet……… not really.

      But there are plenty of heavy trucks running fairly short dedicated routes, and so there will be enough demand for them that manufacturers can probably sell all they can build for quite some time.

      And while there are no guarantees, I’m optimistic that eventually we will have batteries good enough for long distance hauls.

      1. GE APPLIANCES ADDS FLEET OF ELECTRIC TRUCKS, FURTHERING COMMITMENT TO SUSTAINABLE OPERATIONS IN KENTUCKY, GEORGIA, AND TENNESSEE

        The EV trucks are being driven on routes between facilities operated by the Port of Savannah, and GEA’s inbound warehousing and logistics centers, manufacturing sites, and finished-goods warehouses. The trucks have a range of 200 miles per charge and will cover an estimated 125,000 miles annually – eliminating 210 tons of CO2 emissions within the first year,

        https://pressroom.geappliances.com/news/ge-appliances-adds-fleet-of-electric-trucks-furthering-commitment-to-sustainable-operations-in-kentucky-georgia-and-tennessee

      2. All mining heavy trucks are of that type – short loops to drive. With a battery type optimized for extreme fast loading (and heavy power output spikes) while having limited capacity (you always need a down side while optimizing), the truck can go all day long with a few coffee breaks.

        And smaller delivery trucks pop up here already – all town delivery ( a Coca Cola truck for example) have limited range starting at a distribution center and are fighting more with traffic jams than with long distances. Routes are even pre calculated these days – electric trucks are very possible here and already there. Nice for people not having the roaring of the Diesel engines in narrow town streats.

        Long distance hauling is far away – and I think it should belong on a freight railway. Much less friction and rubber waste anyway.

        I’ve been on the A6 in Germany yesterday. A truck traffic jam of 8 miles… a wall truck after truck.

    2. Interesting electric harvester concepts.

      “Imaging a harvester that combines the best technologies from other working machines. Electric motors in the separate controlled wheels, pendulum arms, adjustable width, low CG, low soil impact – a machine with the power and benefits of an excavator but moves like a crab fish in the forest.”
      https://www.forestry.com/editorial/equipments/new-electric-harvester-concept-flips-on-a-dime-360/

      “Logset 12H GTE Electric-Hybrid is, according to Logset, the most powerful harvester in the world with 520 Hp.”
      https://www.forestry.com/editorial/logset-12h-gte-electric-hybrid-harvester/

      “Electrification of machinery and vehicles within forestry and agriculture face unique challenges compared to automotive applications. As forestry and agricultural machinery operate in rural or off-grid areas there is limited, or no access to charging infrastructure. A wide range of duty cycles, operating hours and often seasonal use are also obstacles then electrifying forestry and agricultural machinery.”
      https://regal.se/insights/electric-forestry-and-agricultural-machinery/

  22. It seems that Toyota has been working REALLY hard, out of the spotlight, on battery tech, which is a possible explanation for why they’re not working very hard to actually build and sell electric cars… for now.

    According to what I read, Toyota has over one thousand three hundred patents on solid state batteries, with second place Panasonic having only half that many.

    The patent trolls and patent lawyers are all going to get rich beyond their wildest dreams with so many patents in effect once solid state battery production is scaled up.

    1. Battery technology has hit a wall, and that was in the early 1990’s (Lithium-ion battery).
      Improvements have been made, but same technology.
      It has been a while comrades.
      We will see what Toyota has for us.

      1. Not to understate – CATL readies the sodium battery.

        They do with sodium, iron and aluminium what was done with Lithium, Copper, Nickel and Cobalt in the 90s.

        Cheap is a power on it’s own. Using only abundand materials opens new ways. Oh, and for a town delivery truck or a town bus this battery is good enough.

        1. Its also good enough for the vast majority of trips for individuals, who typically drive only a short distance each day.
          People can rent bigger battery vehicles for the occasional long distance travel.

  23. “There are many indications that the crisis is deepening. The clearest yet was Nepal Oil Corporation asking the government this week to implement 10 austerity measures to reduce petroleum consumption, including by reimposing the two-day weekend, odd-even traffic rule, quota at filling stations, discouraging vehicle use and a ban on import of petrol and diesel vehicles.”
    https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/fueling-nepals-economic-crisis/

    A ban on petrol and diesel vehicles. Yes, but can their grid handle EVs?

    1. I’ve been there 15 years ago.
      Connect one Tesla to the grid and you get a blackout. They had a blackout almost every evening at sunset when people switched on lamps and started the TVs (Work day goes from sunset to sundown).

      Custom made electric cars would be much better there anyway – you don’t go fast and you don’t get far. A bus all day travel route is a distance of 120 miles, normal traffic in Kathmandu has a average speed of 5 mph – or less. A chinese 10 Khw LiFePO battery connected with some motor, optimized for low speed, would be a super energy saving car there for Taxi service (there are almost no private cars). Steal electricity from the grid whereever you can, and the Taxi driver gets away much more cheaper on the long run than paying 1$ per litre of gas.

      Nepal has the biggest hydro power potential world wide, they could supply a part of India too. Investing and political stability needed. They electrified their villages in the mountain by just bringing some pipes and a turbine/generator to them – a creek with enough slope is everywhere.

      1. Approximately equal for 2104-2016 averages…

        (Index, meat, dairy, cereals, veg oils, sugar)

  26. Renewables supply nearly one-third of US electricity in April

    Driven by strong growth in the solar and wind sectors, renewable energy sources across the United States accounted for almost 30% of total national electrical generation in April and more than one quarter of total generation during the first third of the year.

    New figures published by the US government’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) and analysed by the Sun Day Campaign show that renewable energy generation sources in April – including wind, solar, biomass, geothermal, and hydropower – accounted for 29.30% of US electricity generation, a record high.

    Some of the graphics accompanying this article show how little has been done in some areas. The scale of this problem is truly immense but, one sixth of US electricity coming from solar and wind over the first four months of the year is something of a start.

  27. SURVIVALIST(Lefty) – “I wonder if a Democrat has ever considered, that the citizens who suffer from Republican efforts to suppress their voting, might actually prefer to vote for someone else besides them. I would assume not.” (Lefty confirms he understands Republicans are suppressing Democrat voters)

    https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-july-3/#comment-742536

    ********

    “Republicans Are Trying to Repeal the 20th Century, Reagan Lawyer Warns

    A Harvard Law professor and a former U.S. Solicitor General under President Ronald Reagan claimed that Republicans are attempting a “slow-motion coup” and he believed they are determined to repeal the 20th century.

    Charles Fried, who served under Reagan from 1985 to 1989, spoke on MSNBC on Wednesday and discussed the modern Republican party, the state of politics and the future of America.

    Fried went into greater detail regarding his views about the future of American politics and his beliefs regarding the potential of a coup d’état.

    “What the court is going to have next term, they’re gonna start in the fall on this issue and that is, when a state legislature picks electors, the state supreme court cannot do anything about it, because the constitution says that the regulation of electors is supposed to be done by the independent legislature,” he explained. “Now, for decades, that has been understood to mean the whole legislative process in a state which includes, of course, the state supreme court.”

    “North Carolina, which is the case involved, is a hideously [example of] gerrymandering,” Fried said. “The population is half registered Republican, half registered Democrat, but its 13-person congressional delegation is 10 Republicans, three Democrats.”

    “And when the head of the legislative committee was asked, ‘How did you do that? How come you did this?’ ‘Because we couldn’t think of any way to get just two Democrats’,” Fried said. “Now, this is what would be the coup d’état, because these gerrymandered state legislatures in all of the swing states – Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia — would then be able to send…the electors they choose, not the electors chosen by the people. and there is nothing that could be done about it.”

    Fried concluded his point by referencing former President Donald Trump and the power these state legislatures could manipulate.

    “Of course, you see why that is a coup d’état because another Donald Trump, who in fact loses the election, could end up being elected because of these state legislatures, as they have been prompted, to do. They tried it this year.””

    https://www.newsweek.com/charles-fried-republicans-20th-century-ronald-reagan-supreme-court-justice-1722599

    ********

    “That infamous Moscow dinner where Michael Flynn and Jill Stein sat with Putin? Utah’s Rocky Anderson was there, too.

    It’s your typical dinner banquet photo, except for who’s seated at the table.

    In the center is Vladimir Putin, the Russian president; at his right elbow, retired U.S. Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, at the time hardly a household name. A few seats over, among high-ranking Russian officials and other VIPs, is Jill Stein, the Harvard doctor and 2016 (and quadrennial) Green Party presidential candidate.

    Russian meddling in 2016, did some advertising for Jill Stein on Facebook, and if that was to draw votes away from Hillary Clinton, which seems likely, I think that’s a pretty clear sign of their interference in our election,” Anderson said. “Russia’s a powerful nation, and instead of treating them simply as the enemy and building more barriers, I think we need to do everything we can on a people-to-people basis and also diplomatically between our governments to find more common cause and try to work together in a more friendly fashion.”

    https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2017/12/21/that-infamous-moscow-dinner-where-michael-flynn-and-jill-stein-sat-with-putin-utahs-rocky-anderson-was-there-too/

    Lefty, your Green(third) party dines with the terrorist of Ukraine for campaign contributions.

  29. To get back to the possibility of going really deep for geothermal energy………..
    Most of the follow up comments centered on various strategies to use heat pumps……… which are great and wonderful things, I love them myself.

    But heat pumps are NOT sources of energy, you still have to feed energy INTO them to get them to work. They’re energy EXTENDERS. Put in one kilowatt hour in electricity, and get back two or three in heat, great.

    But if going really deep works, it means collecting energy on the grand scale to be used for any job that can be done with electricity.

    You can’t charge up batteries or light up the streets with heat pumps.

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