93 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum, July 12”

  1. The Gulf of Mexico is already at record sea surface temperature several weeks ahead of the normal annual maximum. If any hurricane manages to make it that far watch out.

    1. I almost can’t fathom this:

      A satellite image recorded by the EU’s Copernicus Sentinel mission revealed that the land temperature in the Extremadura region had hit 60C on Tuesday.

      Misprint?? The thermometer outside my window stops at 50C.

      2. Likely everyone here knows that the previous all time high global average temperature record was broken on July 3rd. Every day since then, nine straight days, that previous all time record has been exceeded.

        We are still a little more than a week away from when the highest annual temperature normally peaks.

        1. While you are wetting your pants about the temps take a minute and google The summer of 1936. Go to the Wikipedia site and look at the numbers listed for dozens of location in the US and several dates for that summer. If that occurred today most of you would be institutionalized.

          1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BOQi4b9EMRE

            The meaning of ‘global average’ has some relevance.

            Fifteen straight days now that exceed the prior record, and trending back up as we head into the historically warmest calendar period.

            And yeah, pants wetting, shirt wetting, hat wetting; all sensible cooling strategies if you’re lucky enough to be where the wet bulb temp is sub 32C.

          2. Global average vs specific measurement in one location. Gosh, who could confuse those apples and oranges?

          3. I sincerely don’t understand what is hard to understand about the words “global average”.

            But you’re right, 1936 sure looks sweltering compared to today. (See graph of change over time below.)

            1. Niko , this morning you had put up a post on windmills . I did a fast read on my smartphone but now it is missing when I want to read it on my computer . It was excellent . Did you delete it ? If yes , is it possible for you to re post it . I think you posted it on the other thread .
              P.S ; You post sparingly but if I recall you did an excellent writeup on internet platforms like twitter etc on how they staff , modus operandi , business model , revenue etc . The full Kah-la- lua .

            2. Hole in Head,

              Wasn’t me who put up a windmills post this morning, perhaps someone of the same name?

              And yes, the internet platform write-up was me. I am employed by a large tech company so I’ve got a fair bit of exposure. Looking back on the post I think it could have been better. Next time.

              There is so much good info on this blog, and such high-level debate, I rarely feel I can add much to the discussion, so I rarely post. But when deniers like Ervin swing by with their idiocy I like to drop in.

    2. As the seas rise, mountains shrink. Everest is now 29,032 feet high – will it fall to 28,999?

    1. Windmills are getting more efficient indeed. More emphasis would probably be placed on making the wind farms more maintenace friendly and robost going forward. In addition to securing more energy backup solutions that are not fossil fuel based i.e investing in the grid as well. The windmill size advantages are good enough developed now, even though there are questions over what materials to use (composite carbon, glass fiber etc) in a recycling perspective. Durability might be warranted for some recycling unfriendly materials as well; weight vs strength is important. But only for more critical components.

      1. I am not sure of the accuracy of your comments. Wind turbine efficiency is limited by the Betz Limit, and to date no-ne has reached the Betz limit ot gotten close. Larger wind turbines capture more wind energy, but this comes at a price. The design of wind turbines is a comprimise, just like car tyres. The comprimise is a fight between mass, performace and durability. The weak links are the blades, the rotor hub, the gearbox and the generator. Add more mass and you create more stresses. A wind turbine is a rotary wing. The lifespan of a wind turbine is is function of the stress loads which are about 100 times greater than a jet aircraft. Moreover they are not cheap to build( and are not getting cheaper) and maintenance is significant and costly. Go look at some photos of leading edge erosion. Then look at the share price of Siemens. None of the west’s turnbine maufacturers are making money, and some are in deep doo-doo over lifespan. An acquaintance I know does very nicely our od hiring cranes to service onshore wind turbines- You need a big, expensive crane to maintain these machines. Even more expensve offshore
        Anyone who thinks these creations are a low cost solution for electrical power need some therapy. By the way, without fossil fuels ( feedstocks) there will be no carbon fibre, no epoxy resins, no surface coatings and no gearbox oils. Would you like me to continue? What about integration renweables which a re grid following machines into ever reducing nuclear and fossil generator which are grid forming machines.

  3. The National Weather Service is now forecasting Death Valley to soar up to 131°F (55°C), which, if recorded by a weather station, would be the highest temperature ever reliably recorded on Earth.—-NPR
    2) European Heat Wave:
    Records fell also in Spain and France today
    42.8C Albacete Spain July record
    In France extraordinary heat in the Southeast with 9 records beaten,6 of which all time (see list below).
    Map and table are courtesy of Meteociel.

  4. Battery storage in California is moving ahead. I wonder how decentralized it is:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-11/california-ramps-up-enough-battery-power-to-match-five-nukes?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTY4OTI1ODE2NiwiZXhwIjoxNjg5ODYyOTY2LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJSWE5BWjlUMEcxS1cwMSIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJFQjMzQUE3MEVBN0Q0QjdFOUJEMjRENjc4OTY3NjRDQyJ9.Qtf2bDrAo5RM9jdRnbJ4fxGCDYbqnb3rVvQpb-_w9lY

    Still a long, long way to go but every journey…..
    Rgds
    WP

  6. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-12/fossil-fuel-demand-for-electricity-may-have-peaked-globally#xj4y7vzkg

    This is paywalled, but the link says most of what’s most important.

    The first paragraph is all I could read, but it says peak fossil fuel for electricity is here, and that renewable power is forcing down the price of fossil fuel.

    This is a point seldom if ever made by environmentalists and renewable energy advocates. They’re missing the boat, big time, by failing to do so.

    Because….

    There are a LOT of voters out there who don’t really give a hoot about the environment, or renewable energy…….. who DO pay a great deal of attention to their own finances.

    The fossil fuel camp has them in the bag, more often than not, having convinced them that renewable electricity is more expensive than gas and coal fired juice.

    But the fossil fuel camp seldom if ever mentions the fact that renewable juice means that coal and natural gas SELL FOR LESS.

    Wind and solar power mean gas is cheaper for making fertilizer, or for heating one’s house, or place of business. Cheaper coal means cheaper steel.

    Everybody eats. Cheaper fertilizer means cheaper food. Cheaper steel means cheaper cars, large buildings, and bridges.

    So….. bottom line, a typical consumer may be getting back more in savings on every day expenses than he has ever spent on subsidizing renewable electricity.

    If he isn’t ahead already, he will be within the near future.

    Trades people, general contractors, real estate people, and people in general need to be reminded that wind and solar farms mean local employment, local tax collection, and more work for many various kinds of businessmen.

    1. OFM

      It is my impression as well that a lot of people are stunt opponents when it comes to renewable energy. Some of it could be that many people don’t like change in general; especially if they are happy with things being as they are. They are not taking into consideration the depleting nature of fossil fuels, climate change or anything else really. And in the anything else category lay the following; when building out renewable energy you add energy that was not there before you started the project. So you are infact working to avoid energy poverty. How can that be a bad thing even if the much debated EROEI in some cases can be low? It can, if there is vested interests involved apparently.

      1. “They are not taking into consideration the depleting nature of fossil fuels, climate change or anything else really. ”

        This is my point EXACTLY.

        It’s just about impossible to over estimate the ignorance and or stupidity of a substantial portion of the voting public here in the USA.

        One of the very biggest problems that well educated liberals have in understanding the ways of a substantial percentage of our voters is that they are simply INCAPABLE of coming to grips with the obvious fact that the words “the depleting nature of fossil fuels” means NOTHING to them.
        They may vaguely understand that coal, oil, and gas come out of holes in the ground, and that EVENTUALLY these things WILL be in short supply…….. but they are utterly unconcerned because they BELIEVE there’s plenty of oil, coal, and gas to last indefinitely……. for sure long enough for them, and their children and grandchildren to have plenty.

        They don’t WANT to hear anything to the contrary. They would rather not think about such things, given that they have plenty of IMMEDIATE problems on their plate.

    2. Here is the same article as a bloomberg gift article:
      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-12/fossil-fuel-demand-for-electricity-may-have-peaked-globally?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTY4OTM0NTQ1NCwiZXhwIjoxNjg5OTUwMjU0LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJSWE1FWTJUMEFGQjQwMSIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJFQjMzQUE3MEVBN0Q0QjdFOUJEMjRENjc4OTY3NjRDQyJ9.EwDayW7_0lhsFZd5tpI-DtzeaEqOPKW6LM5pxprbmts
      rgds
      WP

  8. https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=249251

    Karl believes an exponential series collapse is upon us ( me: I think us means the USA).

    “The biggest issue with all exponential series collapses is that they always appear to have only small indications of trouble before the foldback point is reached. If you read the above at the point that you’re two days away from literal extinction everything appears to be just fine.”

    1. Exponential series collapse means something to the regulars here. The average American republican voter on the street wouldn’t have a clue.

      In plain English…………

      When a farmer fails to keep an eye on a silo full of grain, and rats get in, the population of rats triples and quadruples every few weeks……. right up to the day the entire population eats the ever diminishing remainder of the grain.
      Then all the rats starve together, or flee the silo looking for food.

      Cows in an overstocked pasture ALL eat until there’s no grass left. Then they all starve together, unless they find an opening in the fence and escape.

      1. Reminds me of a periodic Black Rat plague in the bamboo forests in the Burmese jungles. Every 48 years the bamboo forests bloom and create food for the rats that then multiply to eat all the bamboo fruit – the rats then have to raid the outlying farms when its all gone, the villagers starve and in this case, there wasn’t any record etc., so they wondered what had happened the last time … some more contemporary investigators figured it out.

        https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2007/12/famine200712

        1. Who was it on the old Oil Drum that always signed off with “Are humans smarter than yeast?” I must say that to someone once a week these days. No evidence to the contrary as far as I can tell.

          1. I’m fond of the saying: “Humans are a two-star species, at best” has a sort of Hitchhikers Guide feel to it.

      1. Karl is a unique character.

        He is referring to the financial collapse of the USA.

        If there is one thing you should listen to Karl about, it is finance ( and the internet).
        He is a genius and understands government spending inside and out.

        He denies peak oil. He believes the USA ( his definitions are very USA centric ) can convert to Coal To Liquids
        powered by Thorium/Nuclear reactors. And get all your energy in one spot!!!

        Oak Ridge Labs had a working Thorium reactor but abandoned it in the pursuit of nuclear weapons.

      2. “Beholden to him for taking me off from carbs”

        If you see someone who is seriously obese ( not overweight but morbidly obese ).

        You are likely to see them drinking lots of sugary drinks.

        They are in fact, addicted to sugar.

        I gave up sodas years ago and my health noticely improved and I lost weight without excercising. I even lost the taste for them…I now don’t enjoy any sugar in my drinks

        Animal Fat is good for you! It is the animals energy reserves!!! That’s why it tastes so good and is satisfying!

        Unlike sugar which makes you want MORE and MORE.

        Hunter Gatherers did not evolve eating popcorn and frozen slurpees.

        The word FAT tricks people into thinking it makes you FAT.

        The USA Government food pyramid is completely wrong!!

        1. The food pyramid is the result of a dozen different committees representing everybody from tradesmen to big bankers to drug companies and hospitals to the pill industry, etc.

          I won’t go so far as to say it’s completely wrong, but there’s a LOT wrong with it. It was designed to assure good nutrition as the subject was understood at the time, to the extent possible. But the medical people didn’t have much clout, and it would have been politically impossible to change it very much. The food companies that make various foods for you have lawyers with shark teeth.

          There were probably some knock down drag out behind the scenes lobbying fights between various factions with the winners getting what they wanted…… a prominent place on the pyramid. Meat processors wanted meat right up near the top. The grain companies had to be satisfied with the bottom row, but lots of daily servings.

          Fortunately there’s a generation of younger practicing physicians out there now who are willing to experiment with their patients’ diets, and some of them are getting amazing results at least some of the time.

          I follow three or four of them myself, having satisfied myself that they know what they’re talking about.
          I base my own diet on a few recommendations all of them agree on……… but these recommendations are in conflict with quite a bit of today’s more or less standard dietary medical practice.

          The things they are supporting now will be mainstream advice when the academic and administrative old guard is six feet under, maybe ten to twenty years down the road.

          2. ‘Completely Wrong’ was too strong. But that you need a few helpings of sweets every day is laughable. Good call OFM.

            The USA government neglects to factor in Human Evolution into its food pyramid.

            The idea that animal fat is bad for you, but you need a couple of servings of candy is a bold face lie.

            Anyone who understands human evolution know that our bodies process animal meat (including the fat) and green vegetables efficiently.

            Given that you need to take heaps of science courses to become a doctor, I am constantly amazed the human evolution by natural selection is so ignored.

            1. >>‘Completely Wrong’ was too strong. But that you need a few helpings of sweets every day is laughable. Good call OFM.<<

              The problem is "trying to avoid those few helpings of sweets every day". Almost everything contains either sweets or carbs except for coffee, tea, water, and proteins.

              Karl and my A!C readings convinced me to change my diet. I'm down 40 pounds and off the Type II diabetes meds. I'm feeling a lot better and have more energy.

              I tell myself that sugar and carbs are my enemy. However, like a cruel mistress, I flirt with them every day. It's hard to give up an "Egg McMuffin" for breakfast or a swig of Coke to fight the MSG later after effects in products.

            2. Take your favorite sandwhich ( egg mcmuffin ) and wrap it in lettuce instead of the bun.

              I actually like it better that way. Some restaurants offer that option now.

              I’ve given up sodas for so long, I don’t like the taste of Coke anymore.

              Diet cokes are ok on low carb, but they have their own set of problems.

              The biggest difficulty with the low carb life is conveinance. Everyone tries to sell you as much carbs and as little protein as possible because its a lot more profitable business model.

            5. ANDRE
              about bread, it is strange how the American diet has shifted to carbohydrates in my lifetime. Not only has literally everything gotten sweeter, but people eat masses of bread, hash browns, fries noodles etc with everything they eat.

              A good example is an English breakfast compared to an American breakfast.
              https://i.ytimg.com/vi/qNnHS62uDHQ/maxresdefault.jpg

              I first started thinking about this when my nephew invited me to eat clam chowder with him at Fisherman’s Warf in San Francisco. The chowder itself is already very gluey, because the main ingredient in flour. But everyone (except me) ordered in in a bowl made of bread. There’s practically no fish soup left.

            6. Protein is expensive. Carbs (fries, rice, noodles ) are cheap.

              For the business model to work, the restaurant needs to stuff you full of carbs.

              And a sample of protein.

              refined carbs and sugar are very bad for you actually despite the claims that they are low fat, but I don’t think we can feed 7 billion people with animal meat.

    3. Please note in Karl’s post.

      Karl presented this information to Senators.

      He said they all understood it and acknowledged they will not do anything about it, because they will lose their jobs.

    1. But still, as has been recently said, humanity will burn just about all the stuff it can get its hands on.

      1. “Rather than collecting taxes from the wealthy,” wrote The New York Times Editorial Board in a July 7 opinion piece, “the government is paying the wealthy to borrow their money.”

      1. I’ll lead it off and again encourage the readers here to buy Ron’s books.

        I have followed Ron (Darwinian) since The Oil Drum days.

        Super weird to hear, but he is one of the guys I admire. Don’t worry I won’t be showing up at your house!!! LOL!!

        I had him completely pegged as an Atheist. I was stunned to learn he thinks a soul survives the body.

        As I know Ron values evidence and doesn’t bullshit anyone. I had to know why.

        After reading Ron’s books, I have converted from an Atheist to an Agnostic and/or Deist.

        My Father has read both of Ron’s books and really likes them.

        His comments “If God can’t change the diameter of a circle….He can’t change anything”.

        Great work Ron!!!! This is the kind of material we need.

    2. Ron’s book is $0.99 for the next four days on Kindle and then it goes up to $3.95. Free to those of you who have Kindle Unlimited. Two good write ups so far.

  21. Not worth mentioning……… but good for a laugh.

    Just in case any of the regulars here may want to park their expensive shiny new electric bike outside……..

    People will believe anything. Supposedly fair minded writers manage to utterly ignore the obvious in order to get paid. Facts can never be allowed to get between a man and his paycheck, lol.

    https://www.autoevolution.com/news/the-linka-lasso-is-the-worlds-first-smart-chain-lock-seemingly-unbreakable-6-217826.html

    I got to be an instantaneous local celebrity once back in my younger days by dismantling a supposedly thief proof bicycle lock in a couple of minutes with a grinder.

    In those days you had to plug in the tool.

    Now we have good battery operated tools of this sort, and I’m willing to bet a thousand bucks I can cut one of these chain locks in less than five minutes, and possibly in as little as one minute. A top brand tool of this sort with a diamond blade costs around five hundred bucks, including an extra battery and charger.

      1. Didn’t pay it much mind, but he made two cuts all the way thru in a big fat link in much less than five minutes. I’ve never seen anything that can withstand a high speed diamond rotary saw although a few alloys are pretty slow going.

        1. Yes, didn’t link to that as a contradiction to what you wrote; just confirmation rather with an entertaining video. The Peweg does do remarkably well though, Other chains are cut through in seconds.

    1. I’ve seen some headlines like this too. Seems too good to be true. I’ll believe it when i see it,
      and I certainly hope to.

    2. Here’s an article from a web site that produces sales reports for EVs in Europe, the US, China and the world, Clean Technica:

      Toyota Claims Solid-State Battery Has 745 Mile Range, 10 Minute Charging Time

      The Takeaway

      As it turns out, the latest news from Toyota is a lot of huffing and puffing without much substance to it. The company is showing signs of changing course, albeit slowly. It says it will adopt the high pressure casting techniques pioneered by Tesla to make the major structural components of its electric cars in the future.

      It is hard for established manufacturers to stop doing what they have always done and start doing something else. There is a belief at the highest levels of successful corporations that things will always stay the same and the money will just keep on rolling in. All they need to do is keep doing what they have always done and everything will be fine. And so it takes a shock to make them reassess their position and pivot to a new direction.

      Until Toyota begins to share some details about its new solid-state battery technology, its announcements must be taken with the proverbial grain of salt. Will it change course and become a leader of the EV revolution? “We’ll see,” said the Zen master.

      In another forum I pointed to some rough calculation I did based on some numbers I got from the following article:

      US: Toyota Plug-In Car Sales Increased In Q2 2023 By 27%

      It appears to me that the number of it’s single model (and it’s Lexus stablemate) that Toyota has sold year to date is not much more than the amount of EVs that Tesla sells on average in a single day! IMHO Toyota is in serious danger of becoming the next Kodak!

    3. More on the Toyota EV saga:
      Is Toyota Finally Facing Tesla Shock?

      First of all, in the first quarter, the Tesla Model Y outsold every Toyota model on the block. Well, it outsold every automobile model in the world!* Many or most Tesla fans — and even Tesla haters who follow Tesla news closely — expected this was coming. It’s long been considered a possibility for this model — before even the first Model Y was delivered. Reportedly, though, Toyota didn’t see it coming. An industry insider reportedly told Automotive News that it was a bit of a shock to the Japanese auto giant with the Model Y outsold the Toyota Corolla. “That was a big blow that really started tipping things,” they said.

      It was expected that the Model 3 and the Model Y would outsell the Toyota Camry buh, buh, but, not the Corolla!

  23. It’s taken awhile but it seems like we’ve finally done it.

    DANGEROUS HEATWAVES STRIKE GLOBE AS WILDFIRES RAGE

    Scorching weather gripped three continents today, whipping up wildfires and threatening to topple temperature records as the dire consequences of global warming take shape. Here in Canada the government said wildfires had burned a record-breaking 10 million hectares this year, with more damage expected as the summer drags on. And, greenhouse gasses billow forth in increasing amounts: CO2, June 2023 = 423.68 ppm, June 2022 = 420.99 ppm.

    https://phys.org/news/2023-07-dangerous-heatwaves-globe-wildfires-rage.html

      1. HICKORY —

        Smoke seems to come and go. Much as I hate wildfire smoke it seems to keep temperatures down a bit.

        1. I was at a meeting in northern Calif and a local guy showed an old photo of what the hilly region used to like when fire danger was less. The old photo was from the time after the redwoods, doug fir and oaks forests had been stripped bare and land converted to sheep grazing as far as the eye could see. He wanted to convert it all back to the stripped bare state. Sterilized basically.
          Short of that, we are stuck with random combustion at large scale indefinitely it seems like.

          I hate smoke air.

  24. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jul/16/big-oil-climate-pledges-extreme-heat-fossil-fuel

    Sometimes the truth HURTS……… but nevertheless we must embrace it even when it’s contrary to our wishes and plans.

    The petroleum industry is backsliding on emission reduction plans, and now is simply insisting that we MUST HAVE GAS and OIL on the GRAND SCALE………. more rather than less.

    I HATE to admit it, but they’re probably right……… because some of the more pessimistic regulars here have pointed out what they think will happen when the shit hits the fan in terms of fossil fuel supplies.

    I have to agree with them……….. once things get really tough, most governments, maybe all governments, will suspend any investments into renewable energy, in order to supply enough fossil fuel for the short term.
    ( Let’s not forget that if you don’t survive short term, the long term is an academic question. Politicians very seldom ever forget this key fact. )

    SO…….. Maybe the best lemonade we can make out of this lemon situation is to apply as much political leverage as possible to fund renewable energy and energy conservation to the maximum possible extent.

    This is the sort of question people running more or less democratically organized countries have to deal with in times of war, or when war is threatening to break out in the near future.

    Austerity is a HARD sell, politically. Any politician who actually proposes a steeper gasoline tax, or stringent new fuel economy standards, etc in the USA is at risk of early retirement if he or she is in a competitive or red district.

    The English knew WWII was coming, and some of their better leaders did all they could to play for time to prepare before it actually involved THEM directly. What they lost by fighting sooner was more than offset by being better armed and better trained and equipped a year or two later.

    Now as a practical matter, as I see it………. curbing oil and gas production deliberately, as policy, and deliberately forcing people to cut back just ain’t going to fly, politically, in the USA for sure and in most other western countries in my opinion.

    So maybe my question answers itself. About the only practical course of action, as I see it for now, is that we do all we can to stay pedal to the metal on building out renewables infrastructure BEFORE the economy deteriorates to the point that building renewables just ain’t gonna happen.

    Then JUST MAYBE the renewables industries will be far enough along to keep the ESSENTIAL wheels of the economy turning at least to the extent that we can avoid an outright hard crash involving the Four Horsemen. There WILL be some oil and some gas, for a long time of course…… probably enough for essential work such as raising food, cop cars, maintenance vehicles, etc.

    I don’t know how the cards will fall. I doubt anybody at all really knows. But I believe a hard crash is baked in, even for countries so well situated in so many respects as the USA.

    It’s my opinion that if we’re LUCKY, we Yankees have at least a fair shot at pulling thru without our killing each other on the grand scale for food and water.

    This assumes of course that the climate doesn’t go haywire to the extent we can’t grow enough food for our population. We can survive on half of what we grow now, by dropping down the food ladder and eating more grain and less meat and so forth.

    Given the way the climate is acting up this summer, I’m beginning to think I might live long enough to experience the crisis.

    If a good piece of land comes available nearby at a great price up on the plateau north of me, I may try to get together a few friends to buy it, just in case, as a good speculative investment and safeguard in terms of growing our own food.

    Going uphill a couple of thousand feet is about as good as moving north a couple or three hundred miles.

    I’ve thought about all this, and made some plans for it, but up until the last few days, I never really thought I might live long enough to implement such plans.

    Now……… I’m wondering if we’ve passed a climate tipping point and that it will get hotter, stormier, wetter and dryer fast enough that even a trumptard will have to face up to it.

    1. Continued failure to curtail FF development, and a rapid buildout of renewables, will pump yet more CO2 and other gases into the atmosphere.

      Yes you will see the crises: Crop failure and starvation, 100’s of millions of refugees and countrywide collapse, billion dollar storms left and right, global economic collapse.

      And it will get worse and worse, as our ability to deal with it all decreases. There will be less of what we need, and more of what we don’t want. What makes you think we’ll do better that when we had lots of everything, and fewer headwinds?

      We do know how things have gone thus far. Times are going to get really desperate and tough. Are your politicians up to it? Is global problem-solving ready to spring into action? Is there a lot of extra money to pay for it? The various anti-vaccers who repented their wrongs on their COVID deathbeds… still died.

      1. “What makes you think we’ll do better that when we had lots of everything, and fewer headwinds?”

        I don’t think in such terms.

        Look a little deeper.

        IF we stay pedal to the metal on renewables NOW, and as far into the future as we can, THEN we will have renewables industries and infrastructure that’s ” grown up” to the point that enough people will be depending on it, and enough people OWNING shares in it, or owning their own personal PV systems , etc, enough tax revenue coming in from these investments, enough people EMPLOYED in these industries……….. ……..

        With the POLITICAL calculus then playing out so that the renewables industries continue to get full support……… and not only full support, but MORE support than ever.

        When the English people just prior to WWII knew it was likely coming, times were VERY tough, but they still put their hearts into building up their armed forces.

        The smaller countries that are currently threatened by Russian aggression are putting heart and soul into helping the Ukrainians and bolstering their own military establishments.

        When the shit is once at truly coming thru the fan on the grand scale, governments will continue to spend WHATEVER money comes in on whatever programs and problems seem to be the most important.

        Ten or fifteen years down the road, the renewables industries can be so big, and the number of people BELIEVING in them, due to personal experience, will hopefully be so numerous that they’re politically untouchable, or at least powerful enough to put up a fight equal to any OTHER ” special interest” group or faction.

        In times of crisis, we aren’t going to be funding new housing programs or new highways or athletic stadiums……… this leaving the millions of people working in construction situated so that their best option is to support politicians who are supporting CONTINUED renewables expansion.

        Renewables and conservation programs will hopefully be among the very last to be curtailed due to lack of money for materials and wages.

        It’s actually possible that, given that we’re not going to run out of oil and gas ABRUPTLY, we can avoid a ” crash and burn” scenario in some countries.

        Maybe here in the USA and Canada, we come in on the belly, no wheels, with most of the passengers alive and well, except for needing new underwear.

        That’s a HELL of a lot better than crashing and burning short of the air port.

        Now suppose we DON’T stay pedal down on renewables……… That’s not going to help things AT ALL, except that the actual crisis , in terms of runaway climate, might be delayed a year or two or three. MIGHT…… might not.

  25. Get off fossil fuels you say.

    OIL DEMAND JUMPED BY 3 MILLION BPD IN MAY TO NEAR-RECORD LEVELS

    The world’s oil demand jumped by more than 3 million barrels per day (bpd) in May compared to April, nearing the record demand level seen in March this year, the latest data by the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) showed on Monday. The increase in global oil demand was largely driven by a demand surge in China, as well as increases in India, Saudi Arabia, and the United States. China’s total oil product demand hit 17.37 million bpd in May, the JODI data showed. This was an increase of 1.7 million bpd compared to April, and the second-highest level ever reported in JODI.

    https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Demand-Jumped-By-3-Million-Bpd-In-May-To-Near-Record-Levels.html

    1. Goodness gracious! Imagine what oil demand would be like if it weren’t for the following:

      35% Plugin Vehicle Market Share In China! (China EV Sales Report)

      Plugin vehicles are all the rage in the Chinese auto market. Plugins scored 600,000 sales last month, up 54% year over year (YoY). That pulled the year-to-date (YTD) tally to over 2.5 million units.

      Share-wise, with May showing another great performance, plugin vehicles hit 35% market share! Full electrics (BEVs) alone accounted for 24% of the country’s auto sales. This pulled the 2023 share to 35% (24% BEVs), and considering the current growth rate, we can assume that China’s plugin vehicle market share will end over 40% by the end of 2023.

      Another measure of the importance of this market is the fact that China alone represented around 60% of global plugin registrations last month!

      Might I suggest that if it weren’t for EVs the price of oil would be a great deal higher?

      1. ” the price of oil would be a great deal higher?”
        Damned right it would, along with the price of natural gas and coal to generate electricity we’re getting from wind and solar farms.

  26. FOREST FIRES IN BRITISH COLUMBIA ARE 30 TIMES WORSE THAN AVERAGE

    This summer has seen a violent outbreak of forest fires across Canada and North America. According to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Center (CIFFC), there were 911 active fires across the country on July 13, nearly 600 of which were characterized as “out-of-control.” More than half of these active fires are taking place in the provinces of British Columbia, driven by a combination of unusual heat, dry lightning, and drought. The situation is becoming increasingly common thanks to rising global temperatures, diminished rainfall, changing weather patterns, and other related effects of Climate Change. In addition, more than 1.2 million hectares were damaged by fire in British Columbia as of July 12, 2023, roughly 30 times the average by this point in the year.

    https://phys.org/news/2023-07-forest-british-columbia-worse-average.html

    1. “fires are taking place in the provinces of British Columbia, driven by …unusual heat,”
      ‘Unusual’ may be becoming the new usual, if the trend continues.
      And considering that the human endeavor is almost entirely linked with combustion,
      I expect it will.
      Remember 1975…
      the population is double that today.

  29. Professor Mike McCulloch pushing his theory of Quantum Inertia, which promised a new form of energy for travel, apparently was sacked at his position at University of Plymouth. This from a few days ago :
    https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/quantum-drive-that-draws-limitless-power-from-sun-will-fly-to-orbit-this-year

    “US company IVO Ltd., a wireless power technology firm, is set to send an all-electric propulsion system for satellites to space for the first time in October.

    The IVO Quantum Drive system was due to launch atop a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket as part of the rideshare mission Transporter 8 in June. However, delays in developing the company’s prototype led IVO to opt for sending their technology to space aboard SpaceX’s Transporter 9 later this year.

    If it lives up to IVO’s expectations, the Quantum Drive could rewrite critical principles of physics that have been a cornerstone for the space industry since its inception.”

    Interesting following the antics of a scientist convinced of his own ideas.

  30. What’s at stake not only in terms of climate problems, but EVERY kind of problem:

    Open in app or online
    July 17, 2023
    Heather Cox Richardson
    Jul 18

    Share

    A story in the New York Times today by Jonathan Swan, Charlie Savage, and Maggie Haberman outlined how former president Donald Trump and his allies are planning to create a dictatorship if voters return him to power in 2024. The article talks about how Trump and his loyalists plan to “centralize more power in the Oval Office” by “increasing the president’s authority over every part of the federal government that now operates, by either law or tradition, with any measure of independence from political interference by the White House.”

    They plan to take control over independent government agencies and get rid of the nonpartisan civil service, purging all but Trump loyalists from the U.S. intelligence agencies, the State Department, and the Defense Department. They plan to start “impounding funds,” that is, ignoring programs Congress has funded if those programs aren’t in line with Trump’s policies.

    “What we’re trying to do is identify the pockets of independence and seize them,” said Russell T. Vought, who ran Trump’s Office of Management and Budget and who now advises the right-wing House Freedom Caucus. They envision a “president” who cannot be checked by the Congress or the courts.

    Trump’s desire to grab the mechanics of our government and become a dictator is not new; both scholars and journalists have called it out since the early years of his administration. What is new here is the willingness of so-called establishment Republicans to support this authoritarian power grab.

    Behind this initiative is “Project 2025,” a coalition of more than 65 right-wing organizations putting in place personnel and policies to recommend not just to Trump, but to any Republican who may win in 2024. Project 2025 is led by the Heritage Foundation, once considered a conservative think tank, that helped to lead the Reagan revolution.

    A piece by Alexander Bolton in The Hill today said that Republican senators are “worried” by the MAGAs, but they have been notably silent in public at a time when every elected leader should be speaking out against this plot. Their silence suggests they are on board with it, as Trump apparently hoped to establish.

    The party appears to have fully embraced the antidemocratic ideology advanced by authoritarian leaders like Russia’s president Vladimir Putin and Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orbán, who argue that the post–World War II era, in which democracy seemed to triumph, is over. They claim that the tenets of democracy—equality before the law, free speech, academic freedom, a market-based economy, immigration, and so on—weaken a nation by destroying a “traditional” society based in patriarchy and Christianity.

    Instead of democracy, they have called for “illiberal” or “Christian” democracy, which uses the government to enforce their beliefs in a Christian, patriarchal order. What that looks like has a clear blueprint in the actions of Florida governor Ron DeSantis, who has gathered extraordinary power into his own hands in the state and used that power to mirror Orbán’s destruction of democracy.

    DeSantis has pushed through laws that ban abortion after six weeks, before most people know they’re pregnant; banned classroom instruction on sexual orientation and gender identity (the “Don’t Say Gay” law); prevented recognition of transgender individuals; made it easier to sentence someone to death; allowed people to carry guns without training or permits; banned colleges and businesses from conversations about race; exerted control over state universities; made it harder for his opponents to vote, and tried to punish Disney World for speaking out against the Don’t Say Gay law. After rounding up migrants and sending them to other states, DeSantis recently has called for using “deadly force” on migrants crossing unlawfully.

    Because all the institutions of our democracy are designed to support the tenets of democracy, right-wingers claim those institutions are weaponized against them. House Republicans are running hearings designed to prove that the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Department of Justice are both “weaponized” against Republicans. It doesn’t matter that they don’t seem to have any evidence of bias: the very fact that those institutions support democracy mean they support a system that right-wing Republicans see as hostile.

    “Our current executive branch,” Trump loyalist John McEntee, who is in charge of planning to pack the government with Trump loyalists, told the New York Times reporters, “was conceived of by liberals for the purpose of promulgating liberal policies. There is no way to make the existing structure function in a conservative manner. It’s not enough to get the personnel right. What’s necessary is a complete system overhaul.”

    It has taken decades for the modern-day Republican Party to get to a place where it rejects democracy. The roots of that rejection lie all the way back in the 1930s, when Democrats under Franklin Delano Roosevelt embraced a government that regulated business, provided a basic social safety net, and promoted infrastructure. That system ushered in a period from 1933 to 1981 that economists call the “Great Compression,” when disparities of income and wealth were significantly reduced, especially after the government also began to protect civil rights.

    Members of both parties embraced this modern government in this period, and Americans still like what it accomplished. But businessmen who hated regulation joined with racists who hated federal protection of civil rights and traditionalists who opposed women’s rights and set out to destroy that government.

    In West Palm Beach, Florida, last weekend, at the Turning Points Action Conference, Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) compared President Biden’s Build Back Better plan to President Lyndon Baines Johnson’s Great Society programs, which invested in “education, medical care, urban problems, rural poverty, transportation, Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps, and welfare, the Office of Economic Opportunity, and big labor and labor unions.” She noted that under Biden, the U.S. has made “the largest public investment in social infrastructure and environmental programs, that is actually finishing what FDR started, that LBJ expanded on, and Joe Biden is attempting to complete.”

    Well, yeah.

    Greene incorrectly called this program “socialism,” which in fact means government ownership of production, as opposed to the government’s provision of benefits people cannot provide individually, a concept first put into practice in the United States by Abraham Lincoln and later expanded by leadership in both parties. The administration has stood firmly behind the idea—shared by LBJ and FDR, and also by Republicans Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, and Dwight Eisenhower, among others—that investing in programs that enable working people to prosper is the best way to strengthen the economy.

    Certainly, Greene’s speech didn’t seem to be the “gotcha” that she apparently hoped. A March 2023 poll by independent health policy pollster KFF, for example, found that 80% of Americans like Social Security, 81% like Medicare, and 76% like Medicaid, a large majority of members of all political parties.

    The White House Twitter account retweeted a clip of Greene’s speech, writing: “Caught us. President Biden is working to make life easier for hardworking families.”

    —

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