Comments not related to oil or natural gas production in this thread please. Thanks.
Interesting graphs on US gasoline consumption https://wolfstreet.com/2026/03/04/u-s-gasoline-demand-fell-further-amid-long-term-structural-shift-plunging-per-capita-consumption/
Looks Like $100 Oil Comes In A Few Days At This Rate According to a JP Morgan analyst, after the…
Nick G, … and a day later, WTI is $91.
Worthwhile article but the last sentence is a head scratcher. “ Trump’s strikes are the first move by an American…
Hi Hickory, I agree with everything you’ve said. From the start they announced their enemy is the U.S and Israel…
78 responses to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum, August 23, 2025”
COAL ISN’T DEAD
• Despite global climate targets, coal consumption hit a record high in 2024.
• Over 850 new coal mines are planned worldwide, with China leading both green energy and coal expansion.
• Countries like Germany and the U.S. are falling back on coal amid wind and gas shortfalls.
“The UN has estimated that limiting the rise in global average temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared with pre-industrial times would require a severe reduction in coal production—and consumption. More specifically, the UN reckons global coal production must be cut by 75% from 2020 levels by 2030 to stay within the 1.5-degree scenario. The chances of that happening were slim to begin with, but now, with an AI race heating up in the tech space, the chances have firmly gone down to zero.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/Coal-Isnt-DeadIts-Just-Catching-Its-Breath.html
still the cheapest way to make stable electricity. Dinosaurs rule, from the grave.
…that is, if you ignore the external negativities (public health, destruction of productive land, etc.) plus the government tax breaks and discounted royalties for mining federal lands.
We have been talking about China’s ghost towns and the likelihood of a collapse for years. But now it has finally happened, it is suddenly out of the news. Why? The real estate collapse was what was making China boom. It was over one-third of their total economy.
Unprecedented Avalanche: China’s Real Estate Market Crashes Everywhere
I don’t know, I just don’t know. Western media pundits have been touting China’s collapse for years now, and it’s still a powerhouse. Hated that video, I hate A.I. voiceovers. They are lazy videos. But what if a few upstarts lose their homes, all this happened in japan too and they are still pumping out Toyotas. But I agree that a lot of the Chinese infrastructure is cheap garbage, just like much of the product they export to the world still. They haven’t followed the Japanese as far as a transition to quality.
Sorry Thompson, but that reply is not worth a comment.
There are a lot of Lies in the World now Ron. Consider the popular financials inspired meme of a glass half full or half empty. I ask you, are you a glass half full man, or a glass half empty man?
The truth has nothing to do with your “attitude”, I have seen several glass half full types go down into bankruptcy. The truth is that the glass is half full if it’s being filled and half empty if it’s being drained. But the financial machine doesn’t want you to question assets, just buy them and believe.
Western media is hardly worth watching now, and that includes much of the alternate media. It’s totally Amero-centric and anything that doesn’t have America coming out as the champion is dissed. China is the greatest threat to America financially, it’s possibly, along with the rest of the BRICS, going to replace it as the next global empire! It’s no wonder the nation is ceaselessly bashed.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/ATjz3yBOJzc
Thompson, the original post was about the Chinese real estate collapse. Therefore, what the fuck are you talking about? Stick to the subject and stop posting about something that has no relationship whatsoever with the original subject.
I repeat: Sorry, Thompson, but that reply is not worth a comment.
If you have no comment on the Chinese real estate collapse, then shut the fuck up.
The Chinese RE collapse is irrelevant to their economy Ron. Just as the US collapse was irrelevant to theirs.
To be clear, Thompson, since you post anonymously, and are afraid of using your own real name; you are not American, is that correct; your ramblings and criticisms are little more than observations from another fucked up country afar, for instance all of Europe and/or the U.K.?
The UK is a cluster fuck of poor long long term planning, as was, is, the rest of socialized Europe. You folks can’t think past next week so have become heavily dependent on United States tight oil and tight gas exports, right?
Well. good luck with that. I think you are going to be really in a bad way, soon.
Can the U.S. think past next week, being by far the biggest crude oil consumer in the world ? And producing increasingly more ridiculous big cars, like there is no tomorrow ?
Yeah the facts in that vid are pretty damning aren’t they Mike. And he didn’t even touch on Race and illegal immigration, or all the Debt.
You shouldn’t make assumptions though.
My state has 70% coal fired power with commitments to keep it that way. The bulk of the rest is rooftop solar. In fact my state is leading the nation in that regard and it leads the world in per capita home solar, I personally have 10kVA in service. We pay about the same for electricity as you do but our incomes are twice as much, a lowly checkout operator here makes $1200 a week.
We are a leading coal, aluminium and iron ore exporter, the third largest Gold producer in the world, the forth largest rare earth producer, as well as being a leading Uranium producer, not that we use it, no Fukushimas here thank you very much. We also export about 70% of our agricultural output.
We also have very low crime, my town of 5000 has never seen a murder. The nation though does lack diversity, a burden we live with. About 85–90% identifies as ethnically white, of European ancestry. And where I live that’s 99%. We are in the southern hemisphere, far away from all the trouble and strife. So in some respects Mike we are lucky down here, I’m sure you’d agree. I don’t think I personally will have problems in the future, certainly not with 20 years of peakoil awareness and preparation under my belt. Since I moved from the city I have been stockpiling popcorn, for the greatest show on Earth 🙂
“We are a leading coal, aluminium and iron ore exporter,…”
THOMPSON,
You shouldn’t be too proud of Australia because of being a leading coal exporter.
The fact that business trumps almost everything is why the world is fried.
No agreement for plastic production and recycling (China produces plastic cheap).
The climate agreement being mostly a showpiece
Han Neumann
“You shouldn’t be too proud of Australia because of being a leading coal exporter.
The fact that business trumps almost everything is why the world is fried.”
It’s not in the least “fried” HAN. That’s an extrapolation, decades in the future. Don’t concern yourself with things beyond your control. A better more positive course is to take action to prevent it effecting you personally, because realistically, that’s all you can achieve.
As odd as this might sound, I’m ambivalent, not Proud. Flags and country names are just things Governments and corporations use to control people and rally them to war. I couldn’t care less about such, but I am grateful to live in a place with abundance. So coal is bad, but so was the Bubonic Plague, and it was trade that brought that to Europe too. People in Europe exploiting ecospheres in other lands. Humans are a destructive species HAN, in all their interactions. When they can’t destroy the ecosphere to their satisfaction they turn on each other, destroying those that are better off than themselves, or attacking peoples in the way of their exploiting the ecosphere.
And what can be said of all this? That I am one of those that has prospered by the destruction of the ecosphere and am content in my lifestyle. Those Uncontent simply want more of what I have. It’s up to them to try and take it, up to me to prevent them from doing so. I don’t listen to propaganda, I don’t watch the TV or otherwise read Corporate or Government bleatings. Most people do and that’s why they are always discontent. Their masters are urging them to actions that bring discontent. Either to buy a new car they can’t really afford or to hate what is now classified as an enemy but that was once regarded as a friend.
Or to hate coal and love limited use solar panels, made in China from coal imported from; Indonesia, followed by Russia, Australia, and Mongolia, the United States, Canada, and Colombia. China loves coal, it’s what’s given them a huge middle class and the highest EV uptake on the planet. But now they want MOAR, so they are branching offshore politically and militarily to exploit the ecosphere.
How’s Northam going Eddy, settled in well yet??
Mike
Most countries are in dire straits for one reason or another.
Crime costs the U.S. 3 trillion per year, with 24,000 murders, vast numbers of drug dealers and takers. Highest rate of imprisonment in the OECD.
U.S. spends 800 billion on arms and could not even beat the taliban.
The U.S imports hundreds of billions more than it exports and pays for it with debt.
U.S. oil is about to peak and you have the lowest take up of electric vehicles per capita of any of the developed world.
https://www.greenmatch.co.uk/electric-vehicles
You have imported more than your share of oil over the years and may find this addiction to be very expensive in the future.
Unfortunately for the Chinese, the government made the same mistake that the Hong Kong government and the Japanese government made before them — letting the real estate bubble eat the financial sector.
It happened on a lesser scale in America as well. But even more savings were tied up in real estate in China.
The big question for the country now is where to find new demand for its industry. Its citizens are aging and have lost their savings in the bubble. Meanwhile the younger generation is “lying flat” — 躺平. They simply don’t have the motivation for the rat race with its diminishing returns. It’s a phenomenon you see all over the world, but it’s probably strongest in East Asia. It’s getting harder and harder to motivate the young with luxuries, or careers, or families, or even sex.
Meanwhile China’s rich country customers are increasingly wary of its exports. One idea is to trade industrial goods for raw materials, but the government is also trying to squeeze oil and coal imports. They’ve built an industrial behemoth, but they are running out of customers.
It’s not just the Chinese who are struggling with low demand. The tech bros have seen this coming for some time. That is where dumb ideas like Mars colonies come from. It’s a way of generating demand for the infinite abundance they are expecting.
The similarities between how China and the rest of the world does business are quite striking Alimbiquated. Hard to believe they are a ‘communist’ controlled nation. But so is Vietnam and look at how well that place functions in this age of global capitalism. It will be interesting to see how these centrally controlled countries fare in the long descent, as compared to nations with so called democratic freedoms. I wouldn’t want to live in one, but if you consider people as human capital then they might manage their stocks with more efficiency, for the Greater Good so to speak.
As with all places and at all times however there are ‘spots’ off the radar where people live and all this madness passes them by. I read of a Korean martial arts master who lived and taught in a remote village during the 40 odd year Japanese occupation when his art was outlawed. He never saw a single Japanese, soldier or otherwise, such was the remoteness of his home. I also read reports about partisans in places like the ukraine during WWII. They lived in the remote mountains and flourished, coming down to attack the Germans and then retreating back up into the wilderness. The German army couldn’t rout them out.
The problem in China is about far more than real estate. The uprising is already started. Crowds are going wild, Bloodshed is everywhere.
Social discontent in China is intensifying, and the people can no longer endure it
All authoritarian governments eventually collapse. When one man in government tries to dictate everything, sooner or later it becomes overbearing and the people revolt. It is currently happening in China, it will happen in Russia, and it could happen in the USA if Trump gains total power, which he is currently trying to do.
Humanity scope (less souls on the other side) of suffering is about to peak soon, China and Japan are over the cliff already. EROEI related and much more. Fertility Worldwise,
currently 2.2 per woman, not far from dropping below the replacement rate. So the pressure s will come from the countries with huge youth numbers. Cheap labor is still a big economic driver world wide. Someone said people buy very big vehicles in USA.
Yeah, big tits and big trucks!!!
But we are Americans after all.
Everything is bigger here. I’m driving a 2014 Camry and park among humongous, monster trucks here on the Atlantic beaches. Can only imagine what is like in Texas.
Love this country without prejudice, can’t help it. Freedom is still in the air. And you can’t find Love without Freedom.
Australia and New Zealand- producing some great technical death metal lately. We started it here in the States, but you seem closer to the End of Hope. Cheers everyone!!!
Ron, Dennis and Ovi. I can only say I love you guys.
I feel that the stifling nature of China’s social contract has perhaps resulted in high expectations from the populace; they’ll trash an airport over late flights, Americans and Europeans just endure it. China has A LOT of unreported riots. The Chinese security apparatus is well experienced in handling riots. They probably handle more than other set of security services.
“All authoritarian governments eventually collapse.“
Ron,
Unfortunately a lot of democratic governments are in problems currently also
In the Netherlands there is no functioning government because the differences of opinion on various problems (migration, shortage of houses, sanctions against Israel yes or no, to name a few). Fighting instead of clear decisions. Parties leaving the government.
It is a chaos, a kind of collapse. Something like this was expected to happen, even in a country like Holland
So the people revolt RON, and they win! But nature abhors a vacuum and people in their millions need government, so what usually happens is that a military junta quickly takes over and things are worse than before.
Burma (Myanmar), Sudan, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Burundi, Ghana, Argentina, Chile, and Greece. France under Napoleon, Germany under the Fuhrer, Egypt by the free officers. How Iraq doing now Saddam is gone? 20 years and it’s worse off. What about Libya now Qaddafi is gone?
The list is endless. The former soviets satellites fell into poverty, Russia itself got Putin, China lost Mao and eventually got Ix and his clique. The Chinese people are unarmed, a few massacres might bring order. If not then a general purge like last time. The military is very strong and knows how to take orders. Mao Zedong’s Cultural Revolution purged the wealthy landlords, the rich peasants. So the current regime might target the well off middleclass? The poor wouldn’t care, they’d happily stand aside. Or just go to war. Put them all in uniforms, that stops discontent. Worked in the 1930’s
“All authoritarian regimes collapse sooner or later. When one person in power tries to dictate everything, sooner or later it becomes unbearable, and the people rebel. This is happening now in China, it will happen in Russia and it may happen in the USA if Trump gets full power, which is what he is now striving for.”
—–
Ron, you wrote nonsense. Regimes collapse not because they are authoritarian, but because they begin to act irrationally, do not see the risks, do not understand the problems and do not want to solve them. An uncritical attitude and complacency, an incorrect sense of one’s own superiority, an incorrect assessment of opponents lead to mistakes.
Every system has its shortcomings. For example, in a democracy, people come to power who somehow promise to increase consumption, improve living conditions, even if this is not feasible or, in the long term, leads to decline. Well, they increase the minimum wage and as a result, products lose their competitiveness, factories eventually close.
In the Russian Federation, with the advent of democracy, corruption appeared and crime increased. There were people who invested millions in elections, and after winning the positions of mayor or governor, they returned this money through corrupt deals on construction or maintenance of the life of the regions. Putin at some point found a solution to this problem, through the disclosure of deals and lawsuits, they began to win elections according to his recommendations, money for elections mainly came from pro-government parties.
Do not count on uprisings in either Russia or China, at least in the next decade. I think your errors in assessments are connected with the fact that you consume incorrect information from the American media, it does not reflect the true situation and is biased. Not long ago, one of the deputy editors of a newspaper opposed to Putin said that he had a meeting with young political scientists, Russianists, those who would study Russia in the future from Great Britain, he was surprised by the audience’s questions, they were related to the KGB, propaganda and aggressive foreign policy.
Here is his retelling of the meeting:
And then I asked: “Post, and what
rivers flow in Russia? Can anyone
list them?” Everyone knew the Volga, but these
future Russianists could not name two rivers. Another girl,
of Indian origin, named both the Yenisei and the Lena. I applaud.
It became clearer that they do not know the basics of elementary things about man in general, how he is built. And then I asked this teacher of theirs, I said:
“Listen, well, first you need to
master some set of initial facts, there are the main
cities, peoples, there is history, how the country was created.” Well,
and then you will start asking questions, as it were,
more precise, and not from the headlines of the newspapers
that you read. And he went mad
literally he went mad. And then he
told me: “These are free children, they have
the right to ask any questions. Any.” I
said: “Well, of course,
you don’t know arithmetic, you don’t know mathematics, come to a person
who works only with logarithms.”
And I tell you: “Ask any questions you want,
but you don’t know arithmetic.” What will you ask him? What
questions? That’s where we need to start.
there is a gradual process of cognition – that’s one. And the second, of course, from
primary sources.
And there were not primary sources, where
they read newspapers that someone else wrote for them. Then I told them: “Well, at least
someone read Chekhov, damn it, if
you are Russianists.”
Good article on military timepieces for all you watch aficionados out there.
https://www.watchesofespionage.com/blogs/woe-dispatch/russia-china-military-watches
Humanity scope (less souls on the other side) of suffering is about to peak soon, China and Japan are over the cliff already. EROEI related and much more. Fertility Worldwise,
currently 2.2 per woman, not far from dropping below the replacement rate. So the pressures will come from the countries with huge youth numbers. Cheap labor is still a big economic driver world wide. Someone said people buy very big vehicles in USA.
Yeah, big tits and big trucks!!!
But we are Americans after all.
Everything is bigger here. I’m driving a 2014 Camry and park among humongous, monster trucks here on the Atlantic beaches. Can only imagine what is like in Texas.
Love this country without prejudice, can’t help it. Freedom is still in the air. And you can’t find Love without Freedom.
Australia and New Zealand- producing some great technical death metal lately. We started it here in the States, but you seem closer to the End of Hope. Cheers everyone!!!
Ron, Dennis and Ovi. I can only say I love you guys.
IEA Electricity Mid-Year Update is out.
“Renewables are expected to overtake coal as the world’s largest source of electricity as early as 2025 or by 2026 at the latest, depending on weather and fuel price trends.”
https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-mid-year-update-2025?utm_campaign=IEA+newsletters&utm_medium=Email&utm_source=SendGrid
Russia’s Fuel Crisis is Worse Than We Thought
Ukraine is continuing their strikes on Russian oil refineries and pipeline infrastructure. This has led to a gasoline shortage in parts of Russia. All sectors of Russia’s economy are failing and in pre-bankruptcy and a fuel crisis will only make the situation worse. Russia has made it clear there will be no meeting between Putin and Zelensky unless Ukraine is ready to surrender to Russia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iXGGimWQKaE
8 different refineries this month and estimate of 1.35 mbd offline
some guy in his bedroom telling me of world affairs?
One refinery burning? Russia has around 30 large oil refineries, in addition to dozens of smaller ones. It’s one of the world’s major fuel producers. I didn’t miss the flag hanging on the wall either, pure ukrainian propaganda, a pretty low-ball posting.
“One refinery burning? ”
Russian energy facilities targeted in drone attacks
By Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-energy-facilities-targeted-drone-attacks-2025-08-22/
Ukraine resumed its drone strikes on Russian oil refineries last weekend, the latest salvo in a nearly 18-month military campaign to crimp Russian fuel supplies. The attacks are expected to further increase Russian retail gasoline prices, which are already nearing record highs, though not to a politically untenable level for President Putin.
Also on August 2, Rosneft’s Ryazan refinery was struck by Ukrainian drones; two of its crude processing units were damaged. Rosneft subsequently notified Russian oil pipeline operator Transneft that crude intake in August would be cut by about 60 percent versus its planned program. Ryazan is an important supplier of gasoline to central Russian regions, including Moscow.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/pressure-pump-ukraine-resumes-strikes-russian-oil-refineries
Cripple Refineries, Russian Officials Blame Citizens for Gasoline Shortages
Aug 21, 2025 12:34
Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries have disabled a significant share of processing capacity, leaving the country grappling with a gasoline shortage, the Financial Times reported on August 21.
https://united24media.com/latest-news/as-ukrainian-strikes-cripple-refineries-russian-officials-blame-citizens-for-gasoline-shortages-10949
Moscow’s War Turns Inward: Russia Brink of Chaos as Gasoline Crisis Hits the Streets—Queues Grow
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zStOGeTR-e0
Russia’s Oil Hub BURNS as Defenses Collapse
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=km72r0ouyLw
From the country that gave us Rupert Murdoch.
The gift that keeps on giving
The Russian Aerospace Forces have completed preparations for a large-scale operation to destroy Ukraine’s gas and energy infrastructure.
According to military sources, the decision was made as a mirror response to the systematic attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Russian oil refineries and fuel hubs. The Kremlin emphasizes that it was the actions of Zelensky and his team that made this step inevitable. Moscow is going to present the future campaign not as an initiative of the Russian Federation, but as a forced reaction to Kyiv’s attacks on the Russian fuel system.
Unlike the campaigns of 2022–2023, the current operation will be based on the principle of “irreparable damage.” The goal is to deprive Kyiv of the ability to quickly restore energy. Not only generating stations will be hit, but also substations, distribution units, storage systems, and gas compressor stations.
According to the plan, after a series of massive attacks, no more than 20% of the generation should remain operational – a minimum reserve sufficient only for life support.
The operation is scheduled to be launched in the second half of September, when Moscow will finally be convinced that Zelensky is not going to discuss peace agreements and continues to rely on escalation.
The Kremlin expects to use future destruction in the information war. The message will be simple: “Ukraine has brought itself to an energy collapse.” Responsibility for the upcoming blackouts and the suffering of citizens will fall personally on Zelensky, who chose to strike Russian oil refineries instead of negotiations.
According to forecasts, after the plan is implemented, Ukraine will enter the heating season with a destroyed energy system, which will create a collapse in the economy, defense and everyday life of the country.
❤️ INSIDER-T – subscribe
Energy facilities (generation and distribution)
– Burshtyn TPP — Burshtyn, Ivano-Frankivsk region.
– Ladyzhyn TPP — Ladyzhyn, Vinnytsia region.
– Tripolskaya TPP — Ukrainka, Kyiv region.
– Kyivskaya TPP-5 and TPP-6 — Kyiv
– Kryvyi Rih TPP — Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk region.
– Zmievskaya TPP — Zmiev, Kharkiv region.
– Kamenskaya TPP — Kamenskoye, Dnipropetrovsk region.
– Yuzhnoukrainskaya NPP — Yuzhnoukrainsk, Mykolaiv region.
– Khmelnitskaya NPP — Netishin, Khmelnitsky region.
– Dnieper Hydroelectric Power Station — Zaporizhia
– Chernihiv Thermal Power Plant — Chernihiv
– Sumy Thermal Power Plant — Sumy
– Vinnytsia Thermal Power Plant — Vinnytsia
– Zhytomyr Thermal Power Plant — Zhytomyr
– Substation “Kyivska 750” — Kyiv region
– Substation “Zakhidnoukrainska” — Lviv region
– Substation “Bar” — Vinnytsia region
– Substation “Khmelnytsky 330” — Khmelnytsky region
🔥 Gas infrastructure (storages, compressor stations, distribution)
– Bogorodchanska CS — Ivano-Frankivsk region
– Ugerska CS — Lviv region
– Dykanska CS — Poltava region
– CS “Tekhnichna” — Kyiv region.
– Gas distribution station “Lubny” — Poltava region.
– Gas transportation hub “Kremenchuk” — Poltava region.
– Gas distribution station “Sumy” — Sumy region.
– Gas storage “Bilche-Volytsia” — Lviv region.
– Gas storage “Oparske” — Ivano-Frankivsk region.
– Gas storage “Krasnopopovskoe” — Kharkiv region.
– OGTSU hub “Beregovo” — Zakarpattia region.
🛢️ Oil infrastructure (refineries, oil depots, terminals)
– Nadvirna Oil Refinery — Nadvirna, Ivano-Frankivsk region.
– Drohobych Oil Refinery — Drohobych, Lviv region.
– Oil depot “UkrTransNafta” – Brovary, Kyiv region.
– Oil storage facility “Galicia” – Lviv region.
– Terminal “Odessa-Port” – Odessa
– Oil depot “Dneprnefteprodukt” – Dnepr
– Oil depot “Lubnynefteprodukt” – Lubny, Poltava region.
– Oil storage facility “Kyivnefteprodukt” — Kyiv
– Oil depot “Zapadnefteprodukt” — Lviv
– Oil depot “Sumynefteprodukt” — Sumy
– Oil depot “Chernigovnefteprodukt” — Chernigov
– Oil depot “Odessa-Yug” — Odessa
—–
Personally, I doubt that Putin will dare to do this
Well Putin’s done nearly everything else he claimed he would. The ukraine is like Japan, refusing to surrender, resorting to kamikaze attacks as the net closes. Pride? More like NATO pushing them into a meat grinder. Who is Zelenskyy? A comic actor and coke addict. Leading up to the election that put him in the hotseat he portrayed a schoolteacher in a sitcom that accidentally saw him become president. “Servant of the People”. “A high school history teacher in his thirties who is unexpectedly elected President of Ukraine following a rant against government corruption in his country.”
I mean you couldn’t make this shit up! He won by a landslide promising to make peace with the Russians, which was all the people of the ukraine wanted. And to end corruption of course, which was and still is endemic. But he’s just a tool of the military elite there, who are tools doing the bidding of NATO. Sure the ukrainian people have a lot to hate Russia for, but that didn’t mean they wanted an all out war. How many young men are let alive now? They are recruiting 60 year olds, probably dragging them off the streets like before. The people want peace, that’s what they voted for, NATO wants war. It’s a tricky game for Russia, they have to play their cards just right, they can’t be seen to be ‘Too’ aggressive, though they could easily have annihilated all opposition years ago. So they take these hits. Look at how much they bent under the NAZI invasion. Under the French centuries before. They are like a spring, they coil back and back, then explode. But not here, the ukraine is an ant.
Western analysis have portrayed this war wrong from the very beginning. To them is was either Russia is pushed out or Russia will destroy the ukraine region totally and then move onto Germany and France and Finland… Typical Western propaganda to rally the people behind defense spending. Russia doesn’t want any of that, nor do they want the responsibility of rebuilding or running the ukraine. They only started it because they were protecting Russian separatists in the north, who the ukrainian avowed nazi azov brigade was exterminating. Look it up.
They poked a Bear and got what they deserved in my opinion. And the whole thing is NATOs fault for pressing up against Russian borders, something they promised they would never do. But they want Russia’s Energy, they desperately want that oil and Gas, it’s what triggers all wars now. Like Iraq, “it’s the oil, stupid.” Michael T. Klare, 2003. What’s in the West of Europe that Russia could possibly want? They were some of Russia’s best customers before the sanctions, You don’t invade nations you are selling mountains of resources to. I can’t believe people swallowed all that propaganda. But here we are, they are still parroting it hey.
“Of course, the Ukrainian people have many reasons to hate Russia, but that doesn’t mean they wanted a full-scale war. How many young people are left alive now?”
—
To better understand this issue, you need to know history. The state of “Ukraine” never existed. In 1240, small states on the territory of Russia were conquered by the descendants of Genghis Khan and fell into vassal dependence on the Golden Horde. The northwestern territory of modern Ukraine was captured by the Grand Duchy of Lithuania by 1340, later in the 16th century this territory came under the rule of Poland and there were constant uprisings in this territory, which were supported by Russia in the middle of the 17th century. At that time, the territory was called the Hetmanate, its leader was the Hetman, sometimes there were two of them, one took the side of Poland (right bank), the other usually Russia (left bank). Russia was constantly at war with Poland. Relations between Russia and the local population were not simple and the leaders often betrayed their allies. Ukraine at that time occupied a territory less than a third of the modern one. The west and south were uninhabited and belonged to the Crimean Khanate, whose economy was based on the trade in Slavic slaves. The entire south of Russia was occupied by solid fortifications that were defended year-round by permanent garrisons, so there were slightly more raids by the Crimean Tatars on Ukraine than on Russia. After the conquest of the Crimean Khanate by Russia in 1783, the settlement of this territory began. Serfs from Russia were settled in the south and in Crimea. Armenians (they were engaged in the slave trade before that in Crimea), Greeks from Crimea were resettled to the territory of modern Donbass, and some Tatars from Crimea were resettled there. Jews were given land and settled in the Odessa region. Ukrainians, mostly not serfs but personally free, were resettled to the Caucasus in the Kuban region for protection from the raids of the highlanders, there they completely Russified and forgot their language. In the east of Ukraine they were populated by Ukrainians mixed with Russians, there were also many Ukrainian villages on the territory of the modern Voronezh and Kursk regions. With the formation of the USSR, the communist government organized the Ukrainian SSR. In the west and south, as well as in the cities, the spoken language was Russian, but Ukrainian was required to be taught in school, although it was used mainly in the west of Ukraine. President Zelensky only after taking office mediocrely learned the Ukrainian language, when he was an artist of the spoken genre there is not a single performance of his in the Ukrainian language. Ukrainian nationalists call Russians Finno-Ugro-Tatars and use this term calling them a non-Slavic people (which personally does not offend me at all, I do not care). Like Slavs are a superior race and this is a constant theme in their messages. I know the history of this territory well, in Russia now, there is a group of scientists specializing in the history of the 16th and 17th centuries, there are many materials from diplomats, reports, government documents from different sides of the conflicts, right down to the lists of casualties and financial payments from different sides of military conflicts.
P.S. Interesting: advisor to President Zelensky, ardent Ukrainian nationalist Podolyak, not long ago, giving an interview to the Estonian television channel, said that Russians are not Slavs, but “Ugro-Fino-Tatars”. He is an idiot, apparently, does not know that Estonians themselves belong to the Finnish ethnic group.
Putin’s decision to invade is in direct violation of the Budapest Memorandum, a key instrument assuring Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The memorandum was struck in 1994, following lengthy and complicated negotiations involving the then Russian president Boris Yeltsin, Ukrainian president Leonid Kuchma, US president Bill Clinton and the then British prime minister John Major.
Under the terms of the memorandum, Ukraine agreed to relinquish its nuclear arsenal – the world’s third-largest, inherited from the collapsed Soviet Union – and transfer all nuclear warheads to Russia for decommissioning. This enabled Ukraine to join the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) as a non-nuclear state.
https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-what-is-the-budapest-memorandum-and-why-has-russias-invasion-torn-it-up-178184#:~:text=
Ukraine is Actively Exploiting Russia’s BIGGEST Weakness
Ukraine has been striking Russian energy targets. Oil refineries, gas facilities, oil refineries, etc. This looks like something we’ve seen before. But it’s actually different. These strikes, while familiar, are actually of a fundamentally different character. Whether it comes to the repeated nature of the strikes, or the strikes on the pipeline supplying Hungary and Slovakia, or Ukraine’s demonstrated ability to knock out Russia’s shadow fleet, something is changing in Ukraine’s approach to the war, and things seem to be escalating quickly. I put this all in context of Putin’s summit with Trump in Alaska to show what’s actually going on, and why it’s an incredible show of force from Ukraine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuPxOe6bSgM
Ukraine’s ‘genius’ strikes cut 17% of Putin’s oil as Trump dodges sanctions
Sir Bill Browder joins Times Radio’s Maddie Hale to discuss Donald Trump claiming there has been no progress in organising a Russia-Ukraine summit because Vladimir Putin “does not like” Volodymyr Zelensky, Sergei Lavrov says a peace agreement cannot be signed with a “de facto head of the Ukrainian regime” and the Ukrainian army continues to strike Russia’s oil refineries causing the head of the Kuril district to temporarily suspend gasoline to his people.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kowPqfAry7I
Ukraine’s Fuel War CRUSHES Putin’s Economy
Ukraine has exposed the fatal vulnerability of Vladimir Putin’s regime: its oil. A precision drone campaign is systematically dismantling Russia’s economy from the inside, a strategic masterstroke that redefines the geopolitical calculations of world leaders, including Donald Trump.
This new phase of the war is not about front lines, but about lifelines. We analyze how this campaign is creating a logistical nightmare for the Russian military, triggering widespread fuel shortages that ground its war machine. These attacks are starving Putin’s regime of both the fuel to fight and the funds to continue, striking at the very heart of his power.
The economic fallout is creating a crisis within the Kremlin, forcing a response that impacts the entire global political landscape. Ukraine’s actions are creating a new reality on the ground, altering the strategic calculus for Western policymakers and figures like Donald Trump, whose future approach to the conflict must now account for Russia’s proven fragility. This is the story of how a petro-state is being brought to its knees, not by sanctions, but by targeted strikes.
Is Ukraine’s strategy of crippling Russia’s oil industry the single most effective tool to end the war, more so than any potential political intervention? Share your strategic analysis below.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQzbkqhRseg
“Putin’s decision to invade is a direct violation of the Budapest Memorandum, a key document guaranteeing the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine”
— ——————————————————————————–
That’s right, apparently the Kremlin decided that it was necessary to violate the memorandum, otherwise it would be worse.
=============================================
“Under the terms of the memorandum, Ukraine agreed to give up its nuclear arsenal – the third largest in the world, inherited from the collapse of the Soviet Union – and to transfer all nuclear warheads to Russia for disposal.”
——————————————————————————
This is not true, Ukraine never possessed or controlled nuclear weapons on its territory, the USSR Ministry of Defense, which owned them, never transferred them to Ukraine, where such a ministry was formed after the collapse of the USSR. An attempt to obtain these weapons would have led to a conflict with Russia and would not have been approved by the US leadership at that time. ======================================================
“Ukraine’s ‘Brilliant’ Strikes Cut Putin’s Oil Supplies by 17%”
“Ukraine’s Fuel War is DESTROYING Putin’s Economy
Ukraine has exposed the fatal vulnerability of Vladimir Putin’s regime: its oil. Precision drone strikes are systematically destroying the Russian economy from within – a stroke of strategic genius”
” We examine how this campaign is creating a logistical nightmare for the Russian military, causing massive fuel shortages that are paralyzing its war machine. These attacks are depriving Putin’s regime of both the fuel to fight and the means to continue the war, striking at the very heart of his power. ”
” This is the story of how an oil state is being brought to its knees not by sanctions, but by pinpoint strikes. ”
————————————————————————————–
The affected refineries are being restored fairly quickly, for example, the Novokuibyshevsk refinery, which has two primary oil refining units, after being hit by Ukrainian drones on March 24, 2025, restored one operation a week later, and the second one after two months. On August 2 of this year, after drone attacks, the refinery stopped working again.
Undoubtedly, repair work will gradually restore production and I hope that the shutdown of capacities due to constant attacks will not increase and will provoke an adequate response.
If there is a shortage of fuel in Russia, then the army is the last structure that will face a shortage.
Russia will survive any economic crisis, I don’t like that in the conditions of war, the level of consumption has not decreased, salaries, on the contrary, have grown strongly – on average by 30-50% with inflation of 10% (while in the defense industry they have doubled), pensions are compensated every year by the amount of inflation – 10%, the flow of Russian tourists to Turkey and Egypt continues, although it has decreased due to the increase in prices in Turkey. I do not see any protests or discontent with the government and the war, as well as repressions from the state. Citizens calmly receive news and opinions and discussions of problems and situations on the Internet without restrictions, the most popular in the Russian Federation are Telegram and YouTube.
“the Kremlin decided that it was necessary to violate the memorandum, otherwise it would be worse.”
TOTAL DISASTER FOR RUSSIA — UKRAINIAN DRONES OBLITERATE CRIMEA’S FUEL & DEFENSE!
Explosions rip through occupied Crimea! Ukrainian drones hit Dzhankoy, wiping out Russian fuel trains and storage. On Cape Chauda, Russia’s pride — S-300 and S-400 systems — are destroyed in minutes. The Black Sea Fleet suffers catastrophic damage as ships and aircraft burn. Fuel shortages hit Russia hard, sparking panic and evacuation. Don’t miss our exclusive breakdown with analyst Oleksandr Demchenko.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SnuIL14baUI
Your military is weak Russia. You are bleeding out !
Thompson
Russia for decades in the past said there was no such country as Poland or Lithuania. They would crush any attempt of the Polish people to gain freedom.
They killed tens of thousands.
You are an imbecile or a Russian stooge
IVER
I’ve read enough about the history of Ukraine and whether or it ever existed and I come to a simple conclusion. Just as you say about Lithuania and Poland (probably Latvia, Estonia and Finland too), Russia has at one time claimed about twice the land mass it now controls. Their position reminds me of a comment from an IBM salesman to me in about 1982. I was installing a CAD system at the time and shopping for a mid sized computer. He said the company only sought their “fair share” of the computer market. When I asked what that was and he said “All of it”.
Russia gave up Ukraine and any claim to it when the USSR dissolved. Putin wants it all back, especially Ukraine because it is the largest and most productive part of what was lost.
He will not give up until he has it all or dies trying. Literally. Trump may ultimately be the reason he succeeds.
The only reason that Russia targets so much stationary infrastructure is because they can’t target things that move.
~2015: “Russian economy is in ruins”, Barack Obama.
-2022 :-As a result of our unprecedented sanctions, the ruble was almost immediately reduced to rubble.
As we all know, American presidents are always on point.
Why is it that always Trump is calling up Putin and not vice versa ? Trump begged for the Alaska meeting , not Putin . Makes me go hmmm .
Oh and the Russian economy has been in freefall since god knows when lol.🤣🤣
Good to see you you popping up Alexander Opritov .
Food for thought.
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IS BOTH DRIVING AND DERAILING DECARBONIZATION
“Already, the AI boom has seriously compromised tech sector commitments to reach carbon neutrality. Last year, Google admitted that the company’s carbon emissions had skyrocketed by 48 percent over the last five years. Google has pledged to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 but the company concedes that “as we further integrate AI into our products, reducing emissions may be challenging.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/How-Artificial-Intelligence-Is-Both-Driving-and-Derailing-Decarbonization.html
AI is great at identifying patterns. Specifically TEXT and PICTURES.
It is terrible at adapting and it can’t be blindly trusted.
As long as reality doesn’t deviate from the training data…it is great.
But reality always deviates from the training data.
(In its current form barring an algorithmic breathru)
China coal power surges even as renewables hit record high
25 August, 2025
…China also began or restarted construction on coal projects totalling 46 GW — equivalent to the total coal power in South Korea — and launched another 75 GW-worth of proposed new and revived coal power projects.
https://www.daily-sun.com/post/822174
AI certainly uses a lot of electricity. So does manufacturing solar panels and wind turbines.
Does the national debt matter?
HOW WASHINGTON’S SPENDING SPREE COULD BREAK THE DOLLAR
“It’s official: The U.S. deficit is ballooning. With the “Big Beautiful Bill” recently passing, the Treasury is on track to add another $3.3 trillion to the national debt. That’s on top of already record-breaking spending and an annual deficit set to top $2 trillion in 2025. In a rational market, this would be cause for alarm. But in Washington, it’s business as usual: borrow, spend, repeat.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/sponsored-post/big-bill-bigger-deficit-how-washingtons-spending-spree-could-break-dollar
Medicare and Medicaid are growing at 9% per year (an exponential curve) and its due to monopolistic pricing practices.
What happens to prices when you break up a monopoly? They crash to what other countries are paying (Japan, Australia, etc) 80% less.
That will destroy the medical industry temporarily. But it can be built back better.
Why no one talks about this is because I think it is such an uncomfortable and inevitable reality…………….
My advice, if you live in USA and are procrastinating on a health issue….get it done now! and work on your overall health….
http://www.market-ticker.org for the guy who has been saying this for years.
” and work on your overall health….”
Couldn’t agree more ANDRE. I’m in my sixties, have good health thanks be to God. No pills, ever, and see a doctor once a year. But this morning early I was out on the pushbike for a spirited 20km ride along the flats, in the dark. I love those Chinese hi-intensity Cree headlamps 🙂
I was a bit whipped when I got back, and I’ll feel a little stiff tomorrow, but I can climb the stairs without the handrail and do the yard-work with ease. I’ll be back out on the bike in 4 to 5 days, been doing that for 30 years with the odd break of a few months here and there.
Out of the few thousand living in my town I have observed about 5 or 10 that actively cycle, without pedal assist. Probably a hundred or so gym junkies but that’s not typically intense cardio like cycling for over an hour. What do the Doctor’s say? A healthy diet and regular exercise, but most people have chosen a sedentary lifestyle, processed junk food and pills it seems. Each to his own.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-15031283/Scientist-solved-mystery-Bermuda-Triangle.html
Bermuda Triangle mystery solved.
Rogue waves that come out of nowhere and can sink a boat in 2-3 minutes.
I thought it was inter-dimensional space aliens, but I guess I was wrong /sarc
I can’t help but wonder how much wars are contributing to climate change, especially wars where oil and gas facilities are being continually targeted (and left burning).
“The carbon footprint of the war in Ukraine has been assessed at over 230 million metric tons of CO2e by early 2025, equivalent to the combined annual emissions of Austria, Hungary, Czech Republic, and Slovakia, or the annual emissions of about 120 million gasoline cars. This significant impact stems from warfare-related activities like fuel-powered military equipment, the production and use of ammunition and explosives, and the construction of fortifications and subsequent reconstruction efforts.”
https://earth.org/warfare-now-largest-source-of-ukraines-annual-carbon-emissions-report-warns-on-third-anniversary-of-russias-invasion/
Was just listening to a Nate Hagen’s interview with a French expert on the energy descent. Nate has been very active since the old oildrum days. I like to download the audios and listen to them on a few old iriver T30’s I have, tiny little players from the 2000’s that take a AAA rechargeable batts. Doing yard work, working on the Gym, even vacuuming the house is a good opportunity to let this stuff filter through my brain.
Here he discusses the three ways of Energy saving; efficiency, sobriety, and poverty. Sobriety is a unique term, coined by the French Government apparently, it means deliberately doing without a good or service. It’s their way of masking poverty, or getting people to basically choose poverty willingly rather than having it forced upon them at a future point.
https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/jean-marc-jancovici-sobriete-vs-poverty-preparing-for-a-new-cultural-paradigm
“I have the right to do anything I want to do. I’m the president of the United States.”
— President Trump, speaking to reporters at a Cabinet meeting today.
I saw that. I don’t know if he is insane or stupid, probably some combination of both.
Every time I stumble on his televised face or even a photograph I realize that we must have the worst possible method for choosing a leader. How could you do worse?
Which reminds me. I have often recoiled when people compare him to HItler. He is nothing like Hitler.
His previous incarnation was actually Mussolini, a big incompetent blowhard.
This week I came across this “Mussolini ha sempre ragione”
Easy translation.
Titusville, PA oil well anniversary today
Peak oil, dream on.
SAUDI, ARGENTINA, AND CHINA PUSH TO TAP GIANT SHALE RESERVES
• Canada, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, China, and Algeria all have huge shale oil and gas resources, and they are beginning to assess and develop them to boost energy security and gain a foothold on the global markets.
• Saudi Arabia is developing Jafurah, the largest unconventional gas field discovered so far in the Kingdom.
• Shale oil and gas exploration is an important part of China’s push to boost its reliance on domestic oil and gas production and reduce its significant exposure to foreign hydrocarbon resources.
The shale boom is now expanding to South America, Africa, and Asia, where large resource holders are looking to develop shale formations to increase domestic oil and gas supply and boost exports. In Canada, the star shale play is the Montney Formation in Western Canada. Montney is one of the largest natural gas deposits on the continent and holds some rather solid crude oil resources—and some of the lowest production costs in the industry. “The primary benefit of Canadian oil sands and Montney assets lies in their extensive inventory of low-cost resource.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Saudi-Argentina-and-China-Push-to-Tap-Giant-Shale-Reserves.html
Meanwhile,
U.S. DEEPWATER PRODUCTION IS SET FOR A RECORD HIGH IN 2026
• Shell, Beacon, and LLOG/Repsol/O.G. Oil & Gas are bringing three new FPUs online in 2025, adding nearly 350,000 boepd of capacity.
• Subsea tiebacks from Chevron, Shell, and BP further boost near-term growth, positioning 2026 output near 2.2 million boepd.
• The 2025 startup class could contribute up to 18% of total U.S. deepwater production, the highest share since 2009.
“The Gulf of America (GoA) has witnessed an outstanding 2025 in terms of startup activity. Three new floating production units (FPU) are set to begin operations by year-end, with the potential to drive the basin’s deepwater output to an all-time high of nearly 2.2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in 2026.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Deepwater-Production-Is-Set-for-a-Record-High-in-2026.html
I think it is becoming clear that we are going to go extinct from our excesses before we lose the ability to punish the ecosystem. We’re going to take a lot of species with us but life will go on. I doubt the cockroaches will ever get to read poetry or ride a surfboard.
Sweltering summers are making an AC a lifesaving device. But despite the heatwaves, millions of Americans simply can’t afford it. https://www.bbc.co.uk/future/article/20250825-why-cool-air-ac-is-becoming-a-luxury-many-americans-cant-afford-in-heatwaves
I don’t know what the issue is, we survived fine for thousands of years without it and it’s another thing people will have to give up with the end of the fossil fuel age, so why not embrace it now and adjust? Be an early adopter. Worse comes to worse you dig a 6′ deep cavity in the ground and hide down there in the hot hours.
I’m American, but I guarantee you guys, China is going from strength to strength. The reason is that they are a very well managed system, unlike ours. They aren’t perfect, sure, but they are improving all the time.
You guys are just mad that another power is rising, that’s all it is. No different from Europeans dissing Americans back in the day.
The real race to Artificial Intelligence is about cheap electricity. Here’s how that’s going.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=crtYJ4-9UYQ
(8 min vid)
I just don’t buy it. Yes, everything this video says about electricity is probably true. I will not question that. What I will question is the claim that AI development depends on cheap electricity, and therefore China, with all that cheap electricity will leapfrog the US, and everyone else in AI development because of cheap electricity.
Just how much electricity does AI demand. Yes, AI servers generate a lot of heat and that means they require a lot of electricity for cooling. But the amount of electricity to power those servers and the amount of electricity required to cool them would be but a tiny fraction of the total amount of electricity generated by the power grid.
I don’t have the figures, but I would bet that the amount of electricity used to power and cool all the AI servers in the US is far less than 1% of the total amount of electricity generated in the USA. Not just that but I would wager that whoever operates those servers spends far more on wages, equipment, and other things than they spend on electricity.
You’re right Ron, all power consumption for data centers put together is less than 5% of US electricity demand, and AI is a fraction of that.
Consumption by data centers is experiencing double digit growth however, and that is mostly from AI. So in the longer term it may become a factor.
On the other hand, AI is also getting much more efficient, though not as fast as demand is growing.
Recent articles I’ve read forecast 6-12% of US electricity production will go to data centers in just a few years. That’s not insignificant. Also the time for new large power transformers to be built has gone from a few months a few years ago to a few years now. Seems to me data centers need to be investing in power storage strategies and not just trailers of natural gas turbines generators.
Leeg wrote: Recent articles I’ve read forecast 6-12% of US electricity production will go to data centers in just a few years.
Nonsense. Please give the link to those recent articles that you have read. I just am not buying it. If you have such articles, then by all means give us a link to those articles. Otherwise just admit that you are blowing bullshit.
What’s with the attitude?
https://newscenter.lbl.gov/2025/01/15/berkeley-lab-report-evaluates-increase-in-electricity-demand-from-data-centers/
Among the report’s key findings:
Data centers consumed about 4.4% of total U.S. electricity in 2023 and, depending upon how much the rest of the economy grows, are expected to consume between 6.7 and 12% of total U.S. electricity by 2028.
The total data center electricity usage climbed from 58 TWh in 2014 to 176 TWh in 2023 and is estimated to increase between 325 to 580 TWh by 2028.
Between 2017 and 2023, data-center power demand more than doubled, largely due to the growth in AI servers.
AI requires increasingly powerful chips and intense cooling systems, driving energy demand growth.
Sorry Leeg but I assumed you meant only AI. That still seems like a lot even for total data center usage. I have worked in data centers, both before and after the internet revolution. Data processors are much smaller now though there are many more of them.
Now they are just a room full of servers with huge air conditioners outside. All the peripherals that once filled the room, like tape drives and disk drives, are gone now. Solid state storage has taken over. Magnetic tape and disk storage is now a thing of the past.
However, the numbers your link quotes is astounding:
The total data center electricity usage climbed from 58 TWh in 2014 to 176 TWh in 2023 and is estimated to increase between 325 to 580 TWh by 2028.
From Google AI: The average capacity of a U.S. power plant is approximately 50 megawatts (MW), which translates to an annual output of about 0.38 TWh.
Do the math. That would mean we would need about 1500 average size power plants in 2028 just to power data centers, That figure is responsible for my attitude. I just am not buying it.
I must make a correction here. Google AI seems way off with its estimate of the average output of US power plants. I think 50 MWs is way too low. Stil 580 TWhs for data center consumption also seems way too high.
Ron, I didn’t invest more than 15 minutes googling around but scanning a few articles came up with similar numbers. That may be
an artifact of Google or misunderstood terms but I kept seeing similar numbers while looking for articles about the bottleneck in large power transformer construction wait times. I can be lazy but I try not to promote bullshit. Ask Google AI.
Another dimension to the discussion is that the fastest supercomputer used to run advanced climate simulation models consumes the same power as a Boeing 737 flying at altitude. While a Boeing 737 in flight consumes roughly 31.3 MW of fuel-derived energy (equivalent to ~9.4 MW effective thrust power), a state-of-the-art supercomputer running a climate model at full capacity with cooling can draw 36–42 MW of electrical power.
The sad part of this saga is that climate modelers still can’t figure out what causes an El Nino, and so waste all those CPU cycles running fluid dynamics calculations searching desperately for a simulation that matches that observed in nature. Nothing seems to work and so they are unable to predict the next El Nino (or La Nina) very far in advance, if at all. The El Nino almost has to appear before they can say it’s here,
Yet, the surprise in store may be that the El Nino patterns are actually trivial to model if the known tidal forces are taken into account. A set of calculations that takes a second or two to run on my older laptop can cross-validate all the El Nino/La Nino cycles over the last 100 years.
Works on a variety of climate cycles as shown here:
https://imageshack.com/a/mLK17/1
Paul, large supercomputers is something that I have worked on for many years, I have no idea where you got that data but even if you got it from Jesus Christ himself I will still say it is pure bullshit. I worked on the largest computers Digital Equipment Corp. made in the data center at NASA’s George C. Marshall Space Center in Huntsville Al. I worked side by side with the guys who maintained the largest Cray computer and IBM computers. They were all in the same data center. NO, hell no, they did not consume that kind of power. All computers in that data center combined, and it was a big one, did not consume anywhere close to that amount of electricity.
Also, keep in mind the computers in the room only consume about half the power that the data center uses. The other half is consumed by the air conditioners that keep them cool.
Question for yous guys re. data centers, LLM and AI. Does power draw correspond to work accomplished or does the system run full throttle all the time?
The fastest supercomputers run at exaflops.
1 exaflop = 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 flops or a bilion gigaflops
Crays were gigaflop machines, and now scale the power requirements by at least a million times.
see Frontier supercomputer at Oak Ridge
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frontier_(supercomputer)
“Does power draw correspond to work accomplished or does the system run full throttle all the time?”
If jobs are scheduled and queued ahead of time, then typically these things are running at close to 100% utilization. At one time I was in a research group that used an SGI-Cray Origin 2000, which was after SGI bought Cray. This was not a job-scheduled machine
Lees, Computers run at full power all the time. The power consumed is 99% from heat the chips produce. The really big ones are water cooled in addition to normal air conditioning.
Paul Pukite, from your link to the concerning the big computer at Oke Ridge. Bold mine.
Location Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility
Power 24.6 MW
From Google AI
A Boeing 747 consumes roughly one gallon of fuel per second while cruising, which is approximately 3,500 to 3,800 gallons per hour. This equates to a power consumption equivalent to around 149 megawatts (MW) in the air.
That’s a 747 but I specifically stated 737, which is around a 1/3 of the power draw.
I wonder if we’re at the stage of computing and data storage similar to the 60’s in auto engineering where a 125 hp V8 gets 12 mpg and the limits of fuel cost and pollution are being hit.
Another legacy of access to excess energy. Instead of acres of auto junkyards we’ll have huge data center buildings.
My point is that a better algorithm or physical model can reduce computational cost by orders of magnitude. The converse of that is that there are problems so difficult that it won’t matter how much computational hardware we throw at it.
I have been using this argument as a motivational tool to try to get others to consider my El Nino model. You would think that the savings would more than offset the (IMO slight) possibility that its wrong. But there’s no one willing to take the bait over the last 5+ years since I developed it — as the USA research community is being burned to the ground by MAGA cost cutting.