124 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum, August 2, 2023”

  1. I’ve been thinking recently about Jevon’s paradox in relation to energy and resource conservation. I’m wondering if the paradox, while perhaps true in a quantitative and limited analysis, might be obscuring some broader and more qualitative benefits to conservation efforts at least in some cases.

    As an example, suppose a person likes the outdoors and decides to take up gardening, specifically herbs and vegetables for their own consumption along with some ornamental flowers. In the process of pursuing this hobby, they use energy and resources, but also reduce some other resource uses. Over time, their gardening skill increases to the point where their net resource use is less that it would otherwise be. Now Jevons paradox would argue that their efforts are essentially useless for resource conservation efforts because the gardener’s reduced use of resources simply lowers the price of those resources for others who then consume more than they otherwise would. However, it seems to me that the knowledge and skill developed by the gardener, as well as the garden itself (improved soil and infrastructure like pathways and borders and possibly a better environment for local wildlife) constitute real “environmental wealth” that has been developed and cannot be negated by Jevon’s paradox.

    Sometimes I see on this forum and others the discouraging use of Jevon’s paradox to negate the validity of environmental conservation efforts and I will admit that the paradox has been discouraging to me personally as I try to navigate these troubling times and be a “good actor” in the world. What I’m basically trying to say here is that folks should take heart in their own personal and local community efforts and have faith that those efforts can make a difference in long-term outcomes for our world even if arguments like Jevon’s paradox make it seem like all our efforts are futile. I’m much less optimistic about the efficacy of corporate and national efforts because of the profit/growth imperative and the vicissitudes of polarized politics.

    1. Maybe just don’t worry about things like the Paradox too much
      and just do what you know is good
      with a lot of enthusiasm.
      Just for the sake of it.
      Thats what I work at.

      1. I don’t worry about the Paradox too much, but I see it coming up in conversation as a “spirit killer” to people’s creativity at least in the conversations I’ve read over the years. I thought into it a little deeper than standard economics and wanted to add my 2 cents to the conversation so maybe others can see things a little differently. It hasn’t stopped me from anything other than avoiding this site and others like it from time to time!

          1. There are natural limits embedded in day to day life that work to prevent us from falling into the paradox.

            People can use only so many lights, and if it’s necessary, we can tax electricity to make sure it’s not wasted on unneeded lights, the tax having the same effect as a higher market price for electricity.

            People who drive big trucks as personal vehicles are usually limited in their driving by work and or family obligations, and most of them wouldn’t drive them very many more miles per year than they’re driving them already, even with gas half the price.

            But you have to take it seriously in general or theoretical terms.

            It’s my understanding that commercial fishery ships often throw more unwanted ( and dead) by catch over board than goes into the freezers.They have next to zero reason to do otherwise, except for fisheries regulations.

            People in places where bread is highly subsidized are known to feed it to pigs kept for their personal table.

    2. The tomatoes that one buys before they got into gardening their own veg required fertilizer. Fertilizer consumption is likely not decreased by growing your own; just a different supply chain and purchaser. Fuel consumption for food transport is perhaps reduced, and if enough people did it, that would arguably lower the price of fuel. But perhaps fuel demand for increased fertilizer delivery to widely dispersed retail facilities would off set that.

      It’s a bit muddled.

      1. Look beyond the simple energy use. There are gardening skills being developed and perhaps a greater appreciation of the natural world. Also, this hypothetical gardener is perhaps using permaculture principles and composting stuff that would otherwise go in the garbage disposal stream. While gardening, they are not traveling to participate in consumer culture. Etc…

        1. Quite right. Fertilizer could, location dependent, be sources from much shorter supply chains than delivered veg.

          In the context of preparation and adaptation to anticipated problems, I’d say capacity building is a good idea.

          1. In preparation for the likely future probably best to be developing gardening skills without the use of chemical fertilizers or insecticides or herbicides.

          2. All the fertilizer anyone needs for growing their own food is produced by their body. I use a lot of woody mulch, hence do not use high carbon human feces, but everyone needs nitrogen and all you need is in your own urine. I’ve been using it for many years and don’t import any fertilizer at all. Diluted urine works great on root crops, corn and other similar field crops and any kind of fruit or nut tree. My citrus, avocados and mac nuts are doing great with just our household urine. If you start collecting it, you will be surprised how much you get. It’s great.

            If and when subsistence farmers are totally divorced from outside supply chains, then all human (and animal) excreta will be precious. After a suitable waiting period (or composting) to minimize pathogen spread, fecal material can go directly on plants where there is little chance of contact with food before or during harvest. Bananas are a great example. An intentional community near me puts most of their excreta on bananas. Any fruit tree where the fruit is picked off the tree is fine. If fecal material is composted well, it can go on anything.

    3. Jevon’s paradox explains why rich countries waste so much energy and why taxing energy consumption would improve the economy.

    4. Jevon’s paradox was developed when the coal industry was new. A very young industry can be very expensive, and efficiency improvements & price reductions can allow the industry to expand dramatically. It doesn’t apply to mature industries like electric, gasoline, or energy in general.

      The effect of Jevon’s is quantified by the elasticity of demand, and is expressed as a dimensionless parameter (meaning it’s a ratio of two items with the same dimension: fuel consumed per fuel saved, basically). That parameter is about .3 for electricity (the last time I looked), and probably lower for liquid fuel. So: if the electricity consumption falls and causes the price of electricity to drop by 10%, other consumption might be expected to rise by 3%.

      Ask yourself: if the price of fuel goes down by 20%, are you going to run out and use more? Not likely. That is only likely if your consumption was sharply constrained by pricing in the first place, but fuel consumption is a secondary consideration mostly dictated by activity, and not the other way around (which also says something about the old correlation of GDP with oil consumption: economic activity drives energy use, not the other way around).

      So, long story short: your efficiency or conservation is extremely helpful to the world!

      (Yeah, I don’t have much time to read POB lately, but I dip in and read occasionally and I couldn’t resist. I probably won’t be able to reply to comments much…)

        1. Thank you!

          I’m a bit overloaded by family stuff, but I’m hanging in there…

      2. Okay, I can’t resist adding a bit more: the first (Newcomen) steam engine was…wait for it…only one third of one percent efficient! It was only fit for pumping water at the mouth of coal mines. But Watt (yes, the one that electricity is named after) improved the efficiency by 15 times(!) to 5%. That’s a dramatic increase, and that kind of efficiency allowed things like coal powered train engines.

        We very rarely see that kind of efficiency increase these days, and even if we did it wouldn’t matter. Look at LEDs: they increased lighting efficiency by about 5x, and they’ve been largely responsible for US electricity consumption flattening out for the last 10 or 15 years.

        So Jevon’s is just obsolete.

        1. Cheers Nick. I hope you and your family are coping well.

          “Look at LEDs: they increased lighting efficiency by about 5x, and they’ve been largely responsible for US electricity consumption flattening out for the last 10 or 15 years.”

          Do you have any references for that? I’ll do my own donkey work too, of course, but I’d like to see what you found. I’m also interested in LED as it pertains to expanding artificial light use in India and areas similar. There’s more people in India without an electric light bulb at night than most people realize. And they all want one. Politicians seem keen to oblige.

          1. Well, as a first step here’s the consumption data:
            https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/state/

            We see that in the last 10 years the compound annual growth rate has been about .15% per year. That’s less than one tenth of what used to be the traditional, reliable 2% utility growth rate. It’s also less than the population growth rate, so that per capita consumption is actually declining.

            This discussion of the impact of LEDs looks pretty good:

            “The Department of Energy in the USA estimated that LED lighting could reduce their national energy consumption for lighting by 29% by 2025, saving households around £80 billion on their electric bills.”

            There’s also some discussion of LEDs in India.

            https://rapidtransition.org/stories/the-lightbulb-moment-the-rapid-shift-to-leds-and-ultra-efficient-lighting/

            1. I just replaced an old incadescent bulb with an LED and we have very few left, all in places where we seldom spend much time. It struck me how simple the old bulb was and the technological “heft” that it takes to make an LED by comparison. It gave me a twinge about how we travel down a road where we become so dependent on technologies we can’t even comprehend while trying to muddle through a culture that seems to try so hard to alienate us from each other.
              More often these days I am comfortable that I won’t be around much longer (watching my 80th birthday creep towards me on the calendar).

            2. LED lights are now the only ones shops are allowed to sell in UK and Europe, and in the last 5 years or so have become the dominant form of lighting, replacing compact fluorescents, which replaced incandescents more than 10 years ago. The US is decades behind when it comes to energy efficiency.

            3. It sounds like you’re feeling isolated.

              Covid hasn’t helped lately. Aging and ageism don’t help.

              My best wishes on feeling better.

            4. Hi Nick:
              Thanks for the sentiment. I’m not particularly isolated. I’m happily married, have friends and stay busy. Mostly I’m just pessimistic for the future path of our culture, and the outlook for my children driven, as I see it, by fundamental characteristics going back to the pilgrims. Maybe I’m little cynical by nature.

            6. Survivalist,

              Please carefully re-read jjhman’s comment above, at 08/05/2023 at 10:29 pm. Please note his discussions of feelings about age and alienation. I think that will clear things up.

          1. Thanks!

            I’m glad to see that you seem to be doing well.

            I liked your comment on Jevon’s – you spelled things out nicely.

        3. A couple points: I just visited a home under construction, and there are at least 200 distinct separate lights. Track lighting, spot lights, under counter lights. I saw 30 lights in one room being wired in. This home is the usual small castle being constructed around here, and smaller than many.

          How did they light the standard English castle 200 years ago? Was it efficient?

          Is Jevons obsolete? I used to have one spotlight in my yard. Now that LED’s are so efficient, I have 7.

          Subtle point: Whatever the material cost of castle heating, what is the carbon cost, or energy cost of 300 light fixtures in your home? If you run 300 hyper-efficient LED’s, and it costs you $300,000 dollars in wire and labor and parts (all from China) to install, is that inefficient? Does it prove Jevons obsolete?

          1. “Does it prove Jevons obsolete?”

            Well, yes. LEDs are pretty cheap, especially the smaller ones, and their much longer lifespan means their annual cost of ownership is much lower. Lower LED power consumption means that much LED wiring is less expensive low voltage.

            Again, just look at the data: per capita electricity consumption is falling where it used to be rising.

          2. Actually the opposite. Jevons paradox is that greater efficiency creates more utility and increases consumption. Not per capita but over the aggregate. Global electricity consumption is rising despite energy efficiency gains. And some of the reason is higher consumption of energy efficient products that are manufactured with the same energy they use.

            1. ” Not per capita but over the aggregate. ”

              I’m not clear what you mean by that. For instance, US electricity consumption is essentially flat over the last 10 years, right?

            2. All of the renewables ever installed produce less electricity than the growth in electricity consumption over the same time period.

              All the renewables installed over the nest 30 years will produce less electricity than all the new air conditioners put into service over the next 30 years. Jevon’s while correct is being swamped by growth. The 4% of Amerikans don’t matter much.

            3. “All of the renewables ever installed produce less electricity than the growth in electricity consumption over the same time period.”

              Of course. “the same time period” extends back to the beginning of electricity, so of course: we know that renewables are not producing 100% of all power.

              “All the renewables installed over the nest 30 years will produce less electricity than all the new air conditioners put into service over the next 30 years.”

              Do you have any calculations for that, or a source?

    1. If strictly looking at cost/MWh, the battery component is only necessary for intermittent sources like wind and solar. The two should be combined to get an apples to apples dispatchable power comparison to the old base load options.

      1. True but that can be mitigated to a fair degree by having better ( in the case of solar at least) east-west connectivity through a country/continent. It is unlikely ( but possible) that nowhere in the country there is some combination of wind and sun which produces power. So we would have to overbuild in any given geograpy but be interconnected. That increases the effective cost obviously.
        When you look at Ercot https://www.ercot.com/ you can see that the combination of wind and solar is somewhat constant ( with respect to minimum generation that is). That said, there will be times that neither are producing meaningfully and that has to be accounted for.
        So I think that the storage costs that should be added to wind/solar may be somewhat less than simple addition /subtraction may suggest.
        I hope ( a four letter word) that at some point Vehicle to Grid ( V2G) is going to be a reasonable option to have distributed storage.
        https://www.mobilityhouse.com/int_en/our-company/newsroom/article/intelligent-software-from-the-mobility-house-makes-an-entire-island-fossil-free

        Rgds
        WP

      2. the battery component is only necessary

        Put another way, traditional electricity generation can’t compete with renewables, but still has a chance against batteries.

        Meanwhile battery prices continue to decline.

    1. And,

      SCIENTISTS WARN ABOUT DECOUPLING WARMING TREND WHEN DETECTING MARINE HEAT WAVES

      The climate crisis is severely affecting marine ecosystems around the world and the Mediterranean is not an exception. Marine heat waves associated with this crisis are causing massive mortality events throughout the basin. Given this scenario, their correct definition and characterization become a key element in defining possible future scenarios.

      https://phys.org/news/2023-08-scientists-decoupling-trend-marine.html

  4. “Vote for me and I’ll pardon me.”

    Did Trump accidentally say something true?

    1. Doesn’t one need to admit guilt to be pardon ?

      I guess that means vote for Biden and jail Trump. That works for me.

      Lock him up !

  5. In preparation for the likely future probably best to be developing gardening skills without the use of chemical fertilizers or insecticides or herbicides.

  6. Russia’s Activities Near Romania and Poland Risk Sparking Another NATO Crisis

    Russia and Belarus’ ongoing activities at the Romanian and Polish borders carry a high risk of sparking a crisis with the two NATO members, though if this happens, Bucharest and Warsaw will likely seek de-escalation. In recent days, Poland and Romania have warned their NATO and EU partners about potential Russian and Belarussian aggression in the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine. On Aug. 1, the Polish government accused Belarus of violating Polish airspace with military helicopters and announced it would increase its military presence on its eastern borders. Then on Aug. 2, the Romanian government said that Russia’s increased attacks on Ukrainian ports by the Danube River (which separates Ukraine from Romania) were ”unacceptable” and described them as ”war crimes.” Poland (which shares land borders with both Russia and Ukraine) and Romania (which shares a land border with Ukraine and Black Sea access with Ukraine and Russia) are two of Europe’s most hawkish countries with regard to Russia. They are some of the strongest supporters of sanctions against Moscow and an increased NATO presence in Central and Eastern Europe, which fuels their fears and accusations of potential Russian aggression in the region.

    There is more to this article but it is behind a pay wall.

  7. The judge who dealt with trump today make a POINT of saying that he would be free only on the condition that he NOT commit any crimes.
    Some talking head seasoned prosecutors and defense attorneys are saying that they’ve never heard a judge point this out, ever. It’s just not considered to be necessary.

    In this case I take it that the judge is determined to make sure trump can’t run around shooting of his mouth and threatening witnesses, mob style.

    And his foot soldiers seem to be getting the message. I don’t foresee any riots going forward, short term.

    It would do the country a hell of a lot of good if he were to be hauled in before the judge and thrown in jail until his court date. THAT would get the message across to his true believers.

    1. Momentous-
      ” For the first time, America is set to put on trial a former president for trying to destroy its democratic system because, as the indictment put it, “he was determined to remain in power” despite having lost an election. And he’s not just any former president – Trump’s the front-runner for the GOP nomination, whom polling shows is closely matched with President Joe Biden in a hypothetical rematch.

      The indictment details a clear and chilling alleged plot to subvert the will of voters in 2020 and to sever the chain of voluntary transfers of power between presidents inaugurated by George Washington leaving his nation to “command its own fortunes” when he declined a new term in 1796.”

      https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/02/politics/trump-latest-indictment-consequences

      I do think they need to have him submit his passport considering the flight risk. Maybe an ankle monitor.

      1. I’ve been wondering for years if this was going to end with Trump living in Russia.

        1. I’d call that a pretty happy ending. I could make a list of folks I’d be happy to go with him.

  8. Global Food Price Index [red line] rebounds slightly in July…

  9. Earth Overshoot Day: Humanity burns through planet’s yearly resources by 2 August

    Humanity has burned through Earth’s annual budget for resources in under eight months.

    Known as Earth Overshoot Day, 2 August marks the date on which we’ve used up all the resources that the planet can regenerate in one year.

    “Persistent overshoot leads to ever more prominent symptoms including unusual heatwaves, forest fires, droughts, and floods with the risk of compromising food production,” says Steven Tebbe, CEO of the Global Footprint Network – the organisation which produces the estimate.

    This year’s date is months earlier than the first Overshoot Day on 25 December 1971.

    But there is good news as we’ve used our annual budget roughly five days later than in 2022 – and the pace at which it is moving forward is slowing down.

    There’s still a lot that needs to change, however, to stop humanity from burning through nearly two planets worth of resources every 12 months.

    International Plastic Overshoot Day: Which countries are best at recycling the polluting material?

    How is Earth Overshoot Day calculated?

    Overshoot Day is calculated using UN data to work out each country’s ecological footprint and the ‘biocapacity’ of the planet. Biocapacity is Earth’s ability to produce renewable resources and absorb waste, while the ecological footprint measures demand on nature including consumption of resources and emissions.

    There is a lot more to this article, along with some great graphs. Click on blue link above to read it.

  10. Leave it in the ground you say.

    CANADIAN OIL PRODUCERS EYE BIG BOOST WITH TRANS MOUNTAIN EXTENSION

    Canadian oil sands producers are in a rush to boost production as the Trans Mountain expansion comes online, providing an additional 590,000 bpd in capacity. “This industry has a great habit of expanding to fill pipeline capacity,” Cenovus COO Jonathan McKenzie said, referring to the Trans Mountain extension, as quoted by Bloomberg. “That’ll be filled, I think, in relatively short order over the coming years.”

    https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Canadian-Oil-Producers-Eye-Big-Boost-With-Trans-Mountain-Extension.html

    1. Meanwhile, latest daily CO2
      Aug. 3, 2023 = 421.92 ppm
      Aug. 3, 2022 = 417.76 ppm
      1 Year Change 4.16 ppm (1.00%)

  11. Anyone else catch the news headline in Papua New Guinea?

    “Motorists, airline travellers, and businesses are all being affected by intermittent fuel shortages in Papua New Guinea
    The shortages are down to major fuel importer, Puma Energy, struggling to access enough foreign exchange.”

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/495163/fuel-shortages-disrupting-multiple-sectors-in-papua-new-guinea

    https://crisis24.garda.com/alerts/2023/07/papua-new-guinea-authorities-declared-a-30-day-state-of-national-emergency-due-to-fuel-shortages-july-31-update-2

    1. Kengeo , ” Puma Energy, struggling to access enough foreign exchange.”
      This is the dollar shortage that HHH writes about on the other thread .

      1. Not quite. The Kina ( PNG currency) has been weakening for years so it is taking more and more of them to buy dollars ( which they then use to buy energy). They simply don’t have the resources to ( in effect) trade for energy. It’s not a dollar shortage, it’s a resource shortage.
        rgds
        WP

      1. Are there other such beachings around other submarine bases?
        I have heard that powerful naval sonar were disorienting whales but I forget where. It seems we are capable of ruining anything that we touch. Submarines and whales seem like a sad story but really just another notch on the belt of industrial civilization.

          1. More evidence is always better and needed.

            Let Hole in Head know the only thing “Dead in the Water” about
            the AUKUS treaty is those whales…..

            Just saying and having fun during overshoot…………………………

      2. I’m no expert by any means, but except for training purposes, there’s no reason navy ships and submarines would be using high powered sonar……… or any sonar at all, in our coastal waters, unless there’s some suspicion that there might be an enemy sub inside our territorial waters.

        Whales have been beaching and dying for a very long time. My opinion is that if these beachings are happening more often, the likeliest cause is some sort of environmental disturbance.

        Correlation is not causation.

        The navy is seriously concerned with its public image and would train elsewhere if such were the case.

        Personally I don’t think whale beachings have anything significant to do with military sonar, but when explosives are used to run seismic tests for oil and gas , that would be another ball game altogether.

    2. For those interested in the military aspects of overshoot and peak oil.

      The Dreaded Rear Admiral ( what a name, sounds like a porn movie) speaketh:

      And why is he serving in the US Pacific Fleet???

      “Australian Rear Admiral Brett Sonter, who is serving in the US Pacific Fleet, said China was conducting a rapid military build up as AUKUS nations worked to counter Beijing’s increasing assertiveness in the Pacific.

      He said he was confident the allies’ submarine and anti-submarine technology were generations ahead but noted “quantity has a quality of its own” when it came to China.

      “They’re getting more proficient in all domains of warfare, but I’m very confident,” he said.”

      1. Read that very closely.

        The Australian Naval Commander said publicly he works for the USA Military .

        I think Australia becoming the 51st state of America would be a WIN WIN for both countries.

        ALOT better than a Chinese Labor Camp.

        Resources for Military = AUKUS treaty…and Canada has expressed interest to join


        with Canada’s ageing submarine fleet..GULP!!!

        CANAUKUS is my prediction. woot woot!

        Draw your own conclusions!

        1. South Africa ( former British Commonwealth countries are the theme ).

          CANAUKUSSA

          ChatCGPT isn’t this good….hardy..harr…harr

  13. I’d rank this scenario as high.
    Because the world did not start to react seriously to peak resource constraints in the 1970’s in a sustained and determined way, we are now approaching peak prosperity. It will likely coincide fairly closely with peak fossil fuels in the 2030’s. We should have used these credit boom decades for transition and adaptation spending rather than ever-growth attempts, wars and extravagance. Now we have a huge pile of global debt and a real economy that needs huge transition expenditures. Time beyond peak prosperity will look very ugly for billions.

  14. trump- “Mike Pence is just too honest”….
    -as in ‘I’m not”
    -as in ‘how do you expect to steal a democracy by being honest?’

    1. @hickory – “MP is just too honest”

      that was a good one. trump always delivers in the high quality of his statements. We don’t seem to have many trump defenders on the blog, or perhaps they just stay quiet. I will assume the role briefly when I say I feel there are some political elements to some of the many, many indictments against him. But Trump is such an easy target for a political system that it’s hard to have much sympathy for him. I mean, Trump isn’t Gary Webb…

      https://theintercept.com/2014/09/25/managing-nightmare-cia-media-destruction-gary-webb/

      but there was this…

      https://thefederalist.com/2019/09/27/schumer-intelligence-agencies-have-six-ways-from-sunday-of-getting-back-at-you/

    2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rigb9JcCh2c

      Trump went on National TV and admitted he stole the classified documents.

      If I was his lawyer I would have resigned after he ignored my advice to NOT go on National TV and discuss the case.

      Now, in an attempt to defend Trump, The Republicans are saying you can’t trust Trump….he was lieing on National TV.

      Yet, you should still VOTE for him.

      The clowns are running the circus.

  15. Tweet
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    Prof. Eliot Jacobson
    @EliotJacobson
    A week ago it looked like Antarctic sea ice was making a quick recovery. No such luck.

    Yesterday’s extent was about 2,420,000 km² below the 1991-2020 mean, about 10 times the size of the United Kingdom worth of missing sea ice.

  16. If you find yourself sleeping too well or optimistic towards the future you really do need to scan the Heritage Foundation’s “2025 Presidential Transition Project.” especially the energy plan that they have so carefully thought out: https://www.project2025.org/
    I recommend having your loved ones hide all sharp objects, poisons and firearms from you while you are reading.

  17. World EV Sales Now 19% Of World Auto Sales!

    Global plugin vehicle registrations were up 38% in June 2023 compared to June 2022, rising to 1,260,00 units. In the end, plugins represented 19% share of the overall auto market (13% BEV share alone). This means that the global automotive market is firm in the Electric Disruption Zone. Add another 900,000 units coming from plugless hybrids, and we have almost one third of global registrations having some form of electrification!

    Year to date, plugin electric vehicle market share was up to 15% (10% BEV).

    The disruption of the infernal combustion engine (ICE) is well and truly underway. According to Tony Seba it will only be another two years or so for vehicles with an ICE to command less than 10% of the market for new vehicles.

    1. Yippee, now EVs will save us from climate change. No wait, maybe not. According to the David Suzuki Foundation: “With the automobile industry, it’s all about electric vehicles. And the focus is on direct emissions rather than the many other environmental impacts, from production to massive infrastructure requirements. Few people even question car culture — why we’ve decided so many people should each have large machines to transport them in isolation. And why they should be provided with the massive infrastructure to make it possible, from roads and parking to malls and drive-throughs. This idea of constant economic growth — with the excessive consumption and waste required to fuel it — has become so ingrained that we resort to incremental measures in the midst of a crisis. We just can’t imagine different ways of seeing, and so we try to shoehorn solutions into an outdated system that wasn’t designed to be sustainable.”

      1. Yes, sometimes the most obvious efforts to mitigate the onrushing climate disaster do look like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
        Your second point regarding constant growth is the more significant issue. There are only two ways to create growth; more people and each person producing more “goods”. Clearly this is a recipe for disaster, a disaster which started generations before any of us alive today and which is approaching some kind of climax I believe.
        But I take heart in the EV revolution as a tiny step in the right direction. While EVs do still use a great deal of resources they represent a move towards a more renewable future both in terms of energy and material resources. Not a solution but a small start.

      2. Hi Doug, I couldn’t help but wonder what the Leighton plan or actions that needs or should be implemented to save humanity and earths environment from climate change. I even Googled “The Doug Leighton plan” to see if you had something out there. Yippee, to my surprise I found this- The Canadian Rockies Hardcover – May 1, 2009,

        https://www.amazon.com/Canadian-Rockies-Douglas-Leighton/dp/1897522347.

        “Without a doubt, this is the all-time bestselling book on the Canadian Rockies. Through the lens of his camera, Douglas Leighton has captured the magic and the majesty of the Canadian Rockies. Because he is a resident of these mountains himself, his reverence for the alpine wilderness is evident in his photography. His images successfully convey the pristine nature of this ever-changing landscape. Leighton’s work represents both his respect for the unique character of the Rockies and his aspiration”

        “Few people even question car culture — why we’ve decided so many people should each have large machines to transport them in isolation.”

        Then I started wondering what was your means of transportation as you enjoyed the Rockies with your camera and could you have completed the book without “massive infrastructure” like roads, motels, stores, gas station, cameras or restaurants ?

        My first experience in the Canadian Rockies was a childhood 3 week family vacation road trip back in the summer of 66. We didn’t get to go out in the snowmobiles on the glazer because of weather, but we did get to ride the gondolas near Banff.

        1. HUNTINGTONBEACH —

          L.O.L. Sorry, that Douglas Leighton is long dead. I started off doing Engineerig Physics and my post graduate degrees were Geophysics and Geology. Spent a lot of time burning fossil fuels while looking for fossil fuels (and various minerals). My recent concerns for planet earth and all the flora and fauna that still live here came late in life.

      3. @doug – maybe won’t save the ecosystem from climate change, but (for the wealthy [top 10%]) could keep them somewhat ahead of peak oil fallout. needs to be both rock and hard place for that group to suffer.

  18. Scrolling past all these Romanov posts is starting to make my “mouse flywheel finger” cramp. Why would anyone want to waste a single second of precious life-energy on that nimrod. And I don’t value my time that highly in any event.

    1. Sometimes I find it healthy to use that kind of nonsense to look for objective sources on the subjects broached by obvious deniers. His comment about the IPCC and water vapor was a sure sign of his understanding of the science.

  19. I hope Seba is right, but except maybe for China and a very few other countries, I don’t think the industry can ramp up that fast.

    In China the industry is already far gone down the electrification highway, and the central government is sure to make sure new cars and small trucks are mostly or entirely electric………

    Central planning works sometimes……. and going all electric will go a very long way towards solving China’s oil and gas problems.Wind and solar electricity can displace huge amounts of oil in the transportation sector.

  20. Sometimes I want to smack myself, for failing to understand something that’s quite possibly perfectly obvious……. once it crosses your mind.

    I’m a sort of armchair historian…… simply meaning that I’ve spent at least a couple of thousand hours reading serious history over the years……. just because I would far rather read good books than watch tv or play golf or hang out in bars.

    It’s more or less a truism that when a king or emporor…….. or dictator……. finds himself in serious trouble, his best way out of it may be to start a war.

    This forces the opposition to accept various new laws and programs so as not to be viewed by the people as traitors to the country. It may also allow the top man to seize the assets of some people…….. especially those who may be his enemies.

    This fits the current scenario very well indeed.

    Of course I have no actual proof…….. but as far as I’m concerned personally, it’s the answer.

    Invading Ukraine was and is all about Putin’s personal survivor as the ruler.

    1. OFM:
      I too am a zealous history fan although my educational background is engineering. My mother-in-law turned me on to English history (the Plantagenant kings) over 50 years ago and I have certainly read at least a dozen history books per year since.
      My opinion on Putin’s ambitions is that he is not only attempting to maintain power but sees his place in histrory as one of the great Tsars. He imagines himself as the great leader that single-handedly rebuilt the Russian empire that was shattered by underhanded manuevers of the west after the fall of communism.
      If you look up the phrase “disaster capitalism” I think you might agree with him on that last part.

      1. Hi JJ,
        Of course you’re pretty much on the money in all you have said.
        I should have written my comment to reflect your remarks, and then said that Putin CANNOT back out of the war NOW because if he does, it will result in his being overthrown……… and quite possibly earn him a pistol bullet at the base of his skull while on his knees.

    2. I have a degree in history from UCSB—-
      But you probably know as much as I do.
      (Well, maybe not as much about Russian anarchism, but still)

      1. I confess that these days I read history just as I read novels, for the pleasure of the moment. I suppose anything that actually sinks in only does because of the entertainment value or if it supports some previous prejudice.
        Russian anarchy does sound like fun, though! My prejudice is that Russian history and anarchy are pretty much synonomous.

  21. China Set Massive Record Of Plug-In Car Sales In June 2023 – Over 700,000

    By: Mark Kane

    Plug-in electric car sales in China continue to amaze and June was no exception, as the market expanded once again, reaching a new all-time record.

    According to EV Volumes’ data, shared by Jose Pontes, 713,932 new passenger plug-in electric cars were registered in China in June. That’s the highest result ever and a 28 percent increase year-over-year.

    Not only that, the market share of rechargeable cars improved to 38 percent of the total new passenger car sales. It’s significantly more than in Europe (25 percent) or in the United States (probably over 7 percent).

    This is why the legacy automakers are in trouble. This trend is being driven by government policy. The Chinese government obviously thinks that EVs are the future and has set up policies that provide incentives for EVs and penalize low efficiency vehicles. The problem for legacy automakers is that they have a significant investment in technology centered around the infernal combustion engine and this will eventually have to be scrapped to make way for battery based technology.

    New players like Tesla and to a lesser extent BYD have no such restraints and are going all in on battery based technology. The only way they lose is if a competitor comes up with a battery that represents a step change in price/performance. At the moment the price/performance of the batteries that are being used is improving by a modest percentage each year. So for the time being they are safe. If someone does come up with a battery with significantly better energy density in terms of weight and volume, It shouldn’t be too much of a change to license the technology or buy batteries from the innovator.

    For an overview of how Tesla is handling the battery situation see:


    What Batteries Are Tesla Using In Its Electric Cars?

    1. Meanwhile,

      CHINA HAS APPROVED MORE THAN 50 GIGAWATTS OF NEW COAL POWER
      • China’s coal output increased 9% to 4.5 billion tons last year.
      • China approved more than 50 gigawatts of new coal power in the first half of 2023.
      • The global energy crisis brought by Russia’s war in Ukraine has triggered a coal ‘spring’ in Europe.

      Last year, China emerged as the world’s clean energy champ, with the country accounting for $546 billion, or nearly half, of the $1.1 trillion that flowed into the sector as countries everywhere rushed to beef up their energy security. But those mammoth investments will do little to change China’s tag as the planet’s biggest polluter, if the country’s fossil fuel investments are any indication. China approved more than 50 gigawatts of new coal power in the first half of 2023, environment group Greenpeace has revealed. China is building coal-fired power plants at a record clip as it tries to counter the effects of drought on hydropower production.

      “China’s government has put energy security and energy transition at odds with one another. Beijing has clearly stated that coal power will still grow at a ‘reasonable pace’ into 2030.”

      https://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/China-Has-Approved-More-Than-50-Gigawatts-Of-New-Coal-Power.html

      1. They have between 25 and 37 years of coal reserves, according to various sources. As a consequence, if they consumme their coal faster, they will experience power shortages faster.

  22. Not good.

    ‘DARK BROWN CARBON’ IN WILDFIRES MAY HAVE EVEN BIGGER CLIMATE IMPACTS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT

    In a new study published in Nature Geoscience, researchers led by Rajan Chakrabarty, the Harold D. Jolley Career Development Associate Professor in the Department of Energy, Environmental & Chemical Engineering in the McKelvey School of Engineering, found that wildfires are causing a much greater warming effect than has been accounted for by climate scientists. The work, which focuses on the role of “dark brown carbon”—an abundant but previously unknown class of particles emitted as part of wildfire smoke—highlights an urgent need to revise climate models and update approaches for the changing environment.

    https://phys.org/news/2023-08-dark-brown-carbon-wildfires-bigger.html

    1. When I saw this in the article I felt much better about wind power:
      “And note that these projects are not viable despite massive subsidies in Biden’s preposterously named Inflation Reduction Act.”
      When I see that kinf of blanket, politically fueled, rhetoric I have to dismiss the entire article.
      I don’t think there is a single notion in the article “proving” the failure of concept in wind generation that doesn’t apply to many, if not most, other industries at this time: inflation, interest rates, profitability, scale up.
      Mish seems to have popped up in these parts since the old Oil Drum but I haven’t seen him for a while. I’ll pay less attention in the future.

    2. Well, we are now close to having accomplished 1/2 of the total human combustion pulse.

      But don’t worry…guys like Romanov will surely come up a geoengineering plan that will allow
      for surface survival up to 6 months a year. caveat- food supplies not included

  25. Get of fossil fuels, you say. Well Qatar’s not listening, a country which is planning to unveil the world’s biggest gas production facility in 2025. Qatar currently has a nominal gas liquefaction capacity of 77 million tons per year, following Australia’s capacity of 88 million tons per year. Furthermore, Al Khalidi said that the new production expansion will provide additional budget revenues for the government that will be channeled into further investments in the domains of education, health, and services in keeping pace with population growth, and in preparation for the new arrivals into the labor market and their needs, as the number of graduates is estimated at 3,000 graduates annually. In fact, economic reports stated that Qatar expects to reap additional revenues of $40bn, as soon as it completes the first part of the 2025 natural gas production expansion project, with its production reaching 110 million tons by 2025. Reports indicated that liquefied natural gas sales will help achieve a budget surplus of about $44bn by 2025, with the bulk of the remaining revenue going to the sovereign fund. Big numbers indeed!

    https://thepeninsulaqatar.com/article/20/07/2022/qatars-plan-to-raise-gas-production-meets-market-requirements

    1. Meanwhile,

      GLOBAL CARBON EMISSIONS HIT NEW RECORD DESPITE GREEN ENERGY PUSH

      Carbon dioxide emissions from energy rose 0.9% in 2022 to a new high of 34.4 billion metric tons, indicating lack of progress in curbing worldwide carbon output. Emissions have moved further away from the reductions called for in the Paris Agreement. The problem is that a massive emissions gap exists between developed and developing nations. The 38 mainly high-income OECD member countries have seen declining carbon dioxide outputs for 15 years. Their emissions now match levels from 35 years ago. Meanwhile, developing countries continue rapidly increasing fossil fuel use and carbon pollution as economies expand. The Asia Pacific region, in particular, has seen explosive growth in carbon emissions over the past 50+ years.

      https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Global-Carbon-Emissions-Hit-New-Record-Despite-Green-Energy-Push.html

  26. With greenhouse gas destabilization of the global climate
    there are a handful of discrete places that associated higher costs will
    hit the global economy with very high likelihood.
    Including
    – higher costs for basic foods with water supply shortages, and heat and storm damage sporadically lowering yields
    – higher costs for residential, commercial and industrial property insurance in large swaths of the world, related to river and coastal flooding, and storm damage, as well as increasing fire risks
    – higher costs for maintaining building habitability in summer in the form of air conditioning

    1. Also,

      SPEED OF APPROACH TO CRITICAL LEVELS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AS DANGEROUS TO OUR SURVIVAL AS REACHING THOSE CRITICAL LEVELS

      The rate at which Earth approaches critical levels of climate change could be as dangerous to our future as reaching these levels themselves. A recent paper by mathematicians at University College Cork and the University of Exeter in England has found that our ability to adapt to global warming will be impaired if the rate of change is too rapid. Approaching critical levels at a too fast rate of change will create new rate-induced tipping points, researchers have found. This, in turn, will impact our capacity to meet the challenges posed by tipping points since tipping will occur earlier than expected.

      For details see RATE-INDUCED TIPPING IN NATURAL AND HUMAN SYSTEMS BY Paul D. L. Ritchie, Hassan Alkhayuon, Peter M. Cox, and Sebastian Wieczorek in Earth System Dynamics
      https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-669-2023

    2. Insurance rates may be the clincher in many industries to put pressure on the government to mitigate climate change effects.
      We are already seeing in California that major insurance companies no longer want to issue homeowner’s policies because of fire risk. I would bet that Florida is going in that direction because of flooding. Because buildings represent the largest capital investments for most individuals and many industries it won’t take much more retreat by insurance companies to become a big topic in elections. Electric generation is also coming under fire here because of fires. Utilities are under the gun for two reasons; causing fires in areas where climate change has made previously stable landscape a tinderbox and the resulting outages getting the attention of ratepayers who increasingly want to huddle inside of their air conditioned buildings.
      The question is how much longer can one of our political parties stick to an increasingly bizarre ideological position in the face of overwhelming reality?

      1. “how much longer can one of our political parties stick to an increasingly bizarre ideological position in the face of overwhelming reality?”

        Around the world, just about all people are willing to burn whatever they can get their hands on (afford) when it is to their immediate economic advantage or pleasure.
        Political parties that make energy use difficult are at risk of a big backlash from a shortsighted electorate known as humanity.
        Short term energy security will get votes over biosphere integrity every day.
        It looks like we are barreling toward the scenario where we walk the hard and declining road of adaptation to a fraying biosphere and crumbling cultural stability.

        1. “Political parties that make energy use difficult are at risk of a big backlash from a shortsighted electorate known as humanity.”

          If only that were true. Solar and wind are better in many ways: cheaper, cleaner, faster to build and more widely available than fossil fuels, but conservative politicians, under the control of fossil fuel industries, have been blocking their deployment ever since the FF industry got Reagan elected to the white house. Sadly, right wing media is spreading the lie that fossil fuels are better and uneducated consumers believe it.

          Let’s be clear: the Republican party is largely controlled by money coordinated by the Koch family and other FF and extractive industries. FF isn’t the only thing they care about: they also care about preserving the wealth and income of the .1%, but FF is big: there are many trillions of dollars at stake in potentially stranded investments.

          In large part we’re in the middle of an historic conflict between extractive industries who are trying to keep their grip on power, and new tech service industries who are trying to break in. This is very similar to the Civil War, which was a conflict between agriculture and manufacturing.

          Sadly, just like with the Civil War, the old industries are willing to burn down the country to maintain their grip.

  28. Another article highlighting that building renewables with deteriorating economic conditions are not going to be easy.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/05/uk-offshore-wind-at-tipping-point-as-funding-crisis-threatens-industry

    Still, renewables work very well up to a certain point of the electricity mix. Whether that is 30,40,50 or 60% of the mix is not so clear. It would probably depend on the specific condition in the region. Hydro power helps, different wind patterns, solar potential. And the ultimate buffer is still going to be fossil fuels probably; that is – in order to keep a steady power output matching demand in the current system.

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