Comments not related to oil or natural gas production in this thread please. Thanks.
8 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum. April 3, 2025”
Globally now that we know what the tariffs are going to be. Central banks will be cutting interest rates even more aggressively than they already have been to soften the blow.
Not that it really matters if they cut rates but that is what they will do.
I personally know of in my neck of the woods. 5 companies from Canada and 3 from Mexico are looking for space to move their business into in my local area. That part is happening. Without any thoughts of will there be plenty of cheap energy for years, decades to come.
And banks will finance these moves without any thought of energy. From a Eurodollar perspective that means a ramp up of dollar denominated loans. A weaker dollar. For a little while at least.
Just know that all the added debt that will be required to move production back into the USA will require even more debt to be repaid. We going to need exponential loan growth.
Better hope that the shale oil and gas production continues to grow otherwise we will have a problem. Might be able to address that problem for a little while by banning oil and gas exports.
We will hear all kinds of crap spewing out of all kinds of places. Like a dollar confidence crisis from a particular German bank who just so happens to loan out massive amounts of dollars.
They need the dollar to go lower so all those dollars they lent out can be serviced. But what they are going get is a rising Euro even while the ECB is cutting interest rates. While their internal economy in Euro terms slows and contracts.
“The world does not really have an energy shortage.”
Not yet. Peak fossil fuel combustion will occur in the next decade and much of humanity could survive in a world that used half as much energy (or less)…if it was used for important purposes targeted at basic survival and in a somewhat equitable distribution (Good luck with that). ‘Incompetence’ and cruelty in human behavior is an integral and permanent part of the equation.
Affordability of, and physical constraint on access to, energy will become a big problem for much more than the couple billion who struggle mightily with it now regardless of the global supply numbers.
Agree with your concerns on soil and water, wholeheartedly.
President Donald Trump’s massive tariffs announced on dozens of nations Wednesday were pitched as “reciprocal,” matching what other countries charge the United States dollar for dollar, even taking into account non-tariff barriers like value-added taxes and other such measures.
But the actual calculation the Trump administration used is not reciprocal at all.
Matching countries’ tariffs dollar for dollar is an incredibly difficult task, involving poring over each country’s tariff schedule and matching a complex array of products, each of which has a different charge for any variants.
Instead, the Trump administration used quite a simple calculation: the country’s trade deficit divided by its exports to the United States times 1/2. That’s it.
The calculation was first suggested by journalist James Surowiecki in a post on X and backed up by Wall Street analysts. The Trump administration later confirmed that was the calculation it used.
For example, America’s trade deficit with China in 2024 was $295.4 billion, and the United States imported $439.9 billion worth of Chinese goods. That means China’s trade surplus with the United States was 67% of the value of its exports — a value the Trump administration labeled as “tariff charged to USA.”
Globally now that we know what the tariffs are going to be. Central banks will be cutting interest rates even more aggressively than they already have been to soften the blow.
Not that it really matters if they cut rates but that is what they will do.
I personally know of in my neck of the woods. 5 companies from Canada and 3 from Mexico are looking for space to move their business into in my local area. That part is happening. Without any thoughts of will there be plenty of cheap energy for years, decades to come.
And banks will finance these moves without any thought of energy. From a Eurodollar perspective that means a ramp up of dollar denominated loans. A weaker dollar. For a little while at least.
Just know that all the added debt that will be required to move production back into the USA will require even more debt to be repaid. We going to need exponential loan growth.
Better hope that the shale oil and gas production continues to grow otherwise we will have a problem. Might be able to address that problem for a little while by banning oil and gas exports.
We will hear all kinds of crap spewing out of all kinds of places. Like a dollar confidence crisis from a particular German bank who just so happens to loan out massive amounts of dollars.
They need the dollar to go lower so all those dollars they lent out can be serviced. But what they are going get is a rising Euro even while the ECB is cutting interest rates. While their internal economy in Euro terms slows and contracts.
The U.S. has a great deal of coal, it could double coal consumption and the coal would last over a hundred years.
https://www.eia.gov/coal/reserves/
Add increasing wind and solar and I don’t see an electricity shortage.
The world does not really have an energy shortage.
Think of the oil in Venezuela.
https://www.strausscenter.org/energy-and-security-project/venezuela/
Not too mention Iran, Iraq, Russia. Any shortages are caused by wars and incompetent dictatorships.
The most immediate threat we face is environmental.
https://icfs.org.uk/the-looming-water-crisis-a-threat-to-indias-future/
https://www.theworldcounts.com/challenges/planet-earth/forests-and-deserts/global-land-degradation
Nobody is affected by peak oil or peak coal. But millions are effected by peak water and peak soil.
“The world does not really have an energy shortage.”
Not yet. Peak fossil fuel combustion will occur in the next decade and much of humanity could survive in a world that used half as much energy (or less)…if it was used for important purposes targeted at basic survival and in a somewhat equitable distribution (Good luck with that). ‘Incompetence’ and cruelty in human behavior is an integral and permanent part of the equation.
Affordability of, and physical constraint on access to, energy will become a big problem for much more than the couple billion who struggle mightily with it now regardless of the global supply numbers.
Agree with your concerns on soil and water, wholeheartedly.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/03/economy/reciprocal-tariff-math/index.html?iid=cnn_buildContentRecirc_end_recirc
President Donald Trump’s massive tariffs announced on dozens of nations Wednesday were pitched as “reciprocal,” matching what other countries charge the United States dollar for dollar, even taking into account non-tariff barriers like value-added taxes and other such measures.
But the actual calculation the Trump administration used is not reciprocal at all.
Matching countries’ tariffs dollar for dollar is an incredibly difficult task, involving poring over each country’s tariff schedule and matching a complex array of products, each of which has a different charge for any variants.
Instead, the Trump administration used quite a simple calculation: the country’s trade deficit divided by its exports to the United States times 1/2. That’s it.
The calculation was first suggested by journalist James Surowiecki in a post on X and backed up by Wall Street analysts. The Trump administration later confirmed that was the calculation it used.
For example, America’s trade deficit with China in 2024 was $295.4 billion, and the United States imported $439.9 billion worth of Chinese goods. That means China’s trade surplus with the United States was 67% of the value of its exports — a value the Trump administration labeled as “tariff charged to USA.”
These Trump people really are not intelligent.
“of our present day, sub-literate, cut-rate carnie clowns.”
So, there you have it lads.
James Hansen: “Global Sea-Ice at Both Poles is Rapidly Vanishing due to Global Warming Acceleration.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lk0K1nMhroU