Collapse: a Decadal Scenario

Ovi Uncategorized

Guest post by orgfarm

Part 1 of 3

Frequently the discussion here focuses on the concept of “collapse”.  Generally, this is a reference to the “collapse of modern industrial civilization”.  But what do we mean when we use those words?  At a minimum, it’s “a rapid decrease in global human population and global economic activity”.  Ok, easy to say, but what would that look like? 

Now there’s the rub.  Things too easily said are often too easily un-imagined, and are rarely followed to a logical endpoint.  Why?  Because analysis of the evidence often leads to uncomfortable, even frightening, conclusions we wish to avoid.  Conclusions that tell us we might be wrong in thinking about a hopeful future. 

We are far too glib when we say “collapse of civilization”.  If one understood the profound implications of that phrase (and the recent science that supports it) it might give us pause and, in a sober and deliberate way, force us to describe what we mean.  How would “collapse” unfold and what impact would it have on the nearly 10 billion humans living in 2040?

What follows is a scenario that appears increasingly likely as evidence for it accumulates from many academic disciplines.  It’s a thought experiment to be sure, but one reasonably based on data, trends, and models from the last 60 years, and an awareness of the rise and fall of civilizations over the last 6000 years.  It’s also a small attempt to open wider the “Overton Window” on this coming event that may mark the end of human history.

The “Forties”

Global population begins to plateau in 2040.  Reaching 10 billion by mid-decade modern civilization continues to be stressed by regional conflicts and international threats as nations position themselves to seize limited essential resources from other countries (under the guise of “peace-keeping” or closer to the truth, “national security”).  These resources are required to sustain economies, maintain living standards, keep the lights on, food shelves filled, gas pumps flowing. 

But ore-grades continue to fall in the “forties”, and resource prices soar.  Oil and fertilizer become unaffordable and then unavailable in many regions of the world.  Crop yields stagnate and fall as high input costs cripple industrial agriculture.  Food and energy price inflation hits families hard causing protests, riots, and social instability.   

Governments are worried but continue to believe “growth is good, growth solves problems”, revealing their increasing incompetence.  Of course in a zero-sum world, “growth” means war.  A political movement forms that seeks de-escalation and “voluntary contraction of population and economy”, but because of wide-spread food and energy shortages, is ridiculed and suppressed.

In a time of chaos and violence, authoritarian rule is embraced by corporate and political elites, both left and right.  The concept of ‘democracy’ seems dangerously naive.  Individual liberties and human rights are redefined or ignored.  Enforcement of the “rule of law” devolves to regional governors, as federal institutions lose control.  These regions leverage their autonomy, create new borders and alliances, and enforce new laws.  Some attempt secession, causing brutal civil war.  By the end of the decade global death rates creep ominously higher than birth rates.

The “Fifties”

In the early “fifties” global population begins to decrease.  Social instability, bitter political rivalry, and growing armed conflict leads to widespread infrastructure neglect and damage.  Developing countries lose electrical grids, throwing hundreds of millions into a dark and unhealthy existence – and forcing mass migration.  These hungry, dispossessed people threaten countries that only have enough food and energy stocks for their own people.  Hearts harden.  “Realpolitik” takes on an immoral and belligerent tone. 

In advanced countries – to the surprise of many – brownouts occur with increasing regularity.  Without reliable power, manufacturing is intermittent, supply chains are disrupted, bankruptcy looms, debt is not repaid.  International finance shudders with fear and uncertainty.  Market volatility shreds the global economy as paper wealth disappears.  Most of the world’s working-age people are unemployed, families are vulnerable.  Certain socioeconomic tipping points are reached causing a cascade of consequences.  Major institutions lose public trust and respect.  Mass formation psychosis spreads, religious and political crisis-cults emerge. 

Authoritarian leaders step in, ruthlessly enforcing laws and pushing radical reforms.  They reorganize government, realign coalitions, and redraw boundaries to create more efficiently run polities.  Economic stimulus is provided, infrastructure repaired.  Communities arise that share a common culture, support traditional values, and work hard to survive and succeed.  There may even be a brief population plateau in mid-decade as food and energy subsidies provide relief.  A semblance of order is restored.

It is short lived.  Late in the decade nations with large supplies of modern weapons shatter the veneer of normalcy and decide to eliminate opposition standing in the way of the most valuable resource: remaining reserves of fossil-fuel.  Unwittingly, more industrial, transportation, and energy infrastructure is damaged or destroyed in the taking.  Many power plants can no longer be supplied or repaired.  Renewed resource wars cause death rates to soar once again.  Population declines by an unprecedented 1 billion by the end of the decade.

Part 2 will outline The “Sixties, Seventies, and Eighties” (Close to March 25)
Part 3 will outline The “Nineties” and conclude with a Requiem and a Question.

104 thoughts to “Collapse: a Decadal Scenario”

  1. Thank you for writing, I like these thought experiments. Collapse, to me, is best defined as a rapid reduction in complexity, of which population reduction is a symptom of.

    The world is already experiencing supply chain issues, regional conflicts, massive amounts of power amongst the elites and erosion of the middle class. You are about 10-20 years too optimistic 🙂
    Philip

    1. Philip,

      I write in Part 3 (spoiler alert):
      “The above decadal scenarios can reasonably be pushed forward or back 20 years…”

      Yes, many warning signs of collapse today. But these signs have been flashing since at least 1950. Now they have become blaring sirens. Still we add 80 million more consumers every 12 months and lose biodiversity at a depressing rate.

      But maybe this “gedankenexperiment” overstates the situation. Hope so. Sadly, the evidence appears overwhelming we’re in for a bumpy ride.

      1. Humans are either an example of the Fermi Paradox or an exception

        The ability to self-destruct via nuclear physics came about in the same civilization and organizational time as launching mass beyond the orbit of Earth.

        It feels egotistical and self-centered to believe that in 4.5 billion years of life on Earth you live in a particularly concentrated time of import and significance. None-the-less, what has unfolded in a single century, and unfolds at an exponential clip, is equal to several billion years of evolution condensed into a livable lifetime for the very species that is producing these innovations.

        This is truly the most interesting time to be alive in the history of life on Earth. Earth’s history is replete with history a curious mind would desire to glimpse. The events either unfolded over millions of years if net “overcoming the Fermi Paradox” or unfolded rapidly if “yep, this random volcanic collapse events explains things”.

        This seems to be the 1st time in lives evolution on Earth that innovation and change is happening so radically fast that one can both experience it directly in their lifetime and it’s due to increasingly rapid positive incremental change as opposed to the way that rapid change has always otherwise unfolded… Collapse

        Genetically we may just be hardwired to perceive rapid change as a harbinger of doom. Afterall, the two have been correlated for billions of years. Our circuitry, our hardware, may just be experiencing a new stage utilizing an operating system that was honed and perfected over billions of years.

        For all we know, we just need a software update.

        1. Brian , “This is truly the most interesting time to be alive in the history of life on Earth. ”
          Also called Peak Civilization and from here begins the decline .

    2. I’ve read the Limits to Growth and it makes sense and Ovi is fleshing out the possibilities based on past human history. I am thankful for a frank discussion and not a head in the sand (or other orifice) set of view points.

      My mom and wife say I like to “argue”. It helps in not being taken in by a con but it doesn’t always work… Thus the need to develop the art of asking good questions (even if you “know” the answer – occasionally you don’t or you find a different perspective).

      The outlook is bleak and I have no doubts that there will be cornering of the markets and if you don’t own that market, you’re SOL (sorry out of luck). This might lead to bargaining among the oligarchs to avoid a mutual “Marie Antoinette” moment where the elites lose their heads especially if they don’t have a willing militia to back them up or the militias are not satisfied with their “piece of the action”.

      However (and you knew this was coming – see first sentence..), what might slow this down and/or mitigate the decline? I picked up a copy of “Henley’s Formulas for Home and Workshop” (I found it is available from the Internet Archive: https://archive.org/details/henleysformulasf00hisc) and wonder how many of the components of could be obtain locally or through regional trade? Iron can come from peat bog. The ocean can be a source of not only fish but minerals. I think you get my drift.

      BTW, searching the Internet Archive under the search word “Henley’s” (https://archive.org/details/texts?query=Henley%27s) brings up a host of books compiled by Henley such as Practical Engineering over several volumes, etc. There is the magazine “Low Tech” at https://www.lowtechmagazine.com/ that has articles how how things were done when we did not have this abundance of energy.

      One of my “goto” sites is John Michael Greer’s https://www.ecosophia.net/. When John is not blogging about sci-fi, Druid, etc. topics, he generally has his finger on the pulse of the world. He started something called “Green Wizardy” and is a big believer in LTG. He wrote a book called; “The Long Descent” in which he covers the topic that Ovi is covering here.

      My personal take is that we will mitigate some of this with solar cells, batteries, and a willingness to cooperate by seeing the “big picture” of LTG and learn to work together to solve some of these predicaments. With regard to solar cells, Perovskite cells have obtained 30% conversion rates but their durability is under 10K hours. Labs are working on solving this problem along with combining these cells to increase the multi wave lengths conversion of solar cells to electricity. Perovskite cells can be manufactured for about a tenth of the cost of their silicon brethren. How is that electricity stored? We can see this with recent announcements from Tesla where they are going back to Lithium Iron Phosphate battery technology and getting away from using Nickel, Cobalt, magnesium, etc. elements which are or will be in short supply.

      So while this article is really a “realistic” downer, I’d rather be bailing or looking for ways to bail this sinking boat.

      1. Pete you “Iron can come from peat bog. The ocean can be a source of not only fish but minerals. I think you get my drift. ”
        No , I don’t get your drift because it is BS . How are you going to extract iron / refine it from them peat bogs economically without fossil fuels and mining in the ocean for minerals ?? Give me a break .
        Your ” I’d rather be bailing or looking for ways to bail this sinking boat.” Go ahead I ‘d rather be looking for ways to live my life fruitfully while the oil age ends is a better motto . Last ” Smoking hopium is injurious to health ” . Take care , the end of the oil age was never going to be party .

        1. It’s not “hopium” to search, find, and be aware of other sources as others are, and have been depleted. Not many people realize that some “iron age” communities were able to burn peat to extract iron. I have no illusions that this will not replace prime, secondary, tertiary, etc. iron ore sources. The example is there to make people think about where we might be able to obtain iron. Closer to home, it might be salvage yards, derelict vehicles, and then landfills.

          Another example is making “bricks” without firing clay (ref: https://biomason.com/). The question asked by its founder was how do clams make rock hard shells without heat? That lead this gal on a quest to find out how. I’m not sure where she is in her progress but it is a worthwhile pursuit since a lot of countries make their homes out of bricks and some of them are in earthquake country. Could save the use a lot of firewood and natural gas. She has made progress in her understanding of the processes and that’s important. She has a commercial product called bioLITH.

          Kunstler in his blog at https://kunstler.com/ is being sponsored in part by a company in Canada called Sage Restoration “Natural pine tars and linseed oils” that have been “protecting wood naturally for over 2000 years”. How are these products made locally???

          I know nothing about harvesting minerals from the sea except what I read about various concentrations of various minerals and elements in sea water. From there, what works, what doesn’t.

          I agree with you that “hopium” can be injurious to one’s health but so is becoming very depressed and “just giving up”. The whole tone of the OP was too depressing to let it stand by itself without challenging us to try to figure out if there are ways to soften the declines and collapses. I provided some references to what has worked in the past and what may work in the future along with some references that might be helpful.

      2. Greer–
        “Greer also created the training program for the Druidical Order of the Golden Dawn, an order which fuses druidry with Golden Dawn ceremonial magic, which he founded in 2013.[4] He wrote The Celtic Golden Dawn: An Original & Complete Curriculum of Druidical Study, which serves as the orders’s core textbook and curriculum.”
        BA in Comparative History of Ideas

        I find him entertaining, and have had in person encounters.
        But don’t take him seriously, just be entertained.

        1. Greer also has Asperger’s Syndrome which is a form of Autism. I see his picture and figure he could walk in with ZZ Top and not be questioned…

          Like most bloggers, I listen but don’t always agree but his book, The Long Discent, is interesting and paints a general picture of decline over a 200 or so period.

          Where did you meet him?

          1. I might mention that i had lunch with Greer in Seattle around 2001 and at the same table was Richard Duncan the one who coined the phrase Back to Olduvai Gorge. I learned at the time that Greer had never owned a car in his life. I do not know if that has changed now that he moved to (I think) to northern Maryland.

      3. PETEREV

        I want to clarify that I did not compose this article. It was written by orgfarm. I just helped him post.

      4. Peterev said; “My personal take is that we will mitigate some of this ……”
        Which “we” is that, Pet? AFAIK, there is no ‘we” except in one’s own circle of respondents. There’s always another “we” (them) who will be glad to take whatever gains you may make. It’s called human conflict.
        Thanks for the links. Another link (not behind a paywall) is the “Survivor Library” where you can download thousands of books in PDF format, going back a couple of centuries. Pretty much anything you could want as to how people did stuff before Average Joe forgot how to do anything for himself.
        https://www.survivorlibrary.com/library-download.html
        I’m pretty sure the most successful responses to what’s ahead will be local.

  2. Thanks for the food for thought. Agree with Phillip in that some of the things are already happening in early stages-
    “people are unemployed, families are vulnerable. Certain socioeconomic tipping points are reached causing a cascade of consequences. Major institutions lose public trust and respect. Mass formation psychosis spreads, religious and political crisis-cults emerge” ala Trumpism. The next guy might not be so incompetent.

    1. HICKORY —

      Since the last such UN report in 2014, many threats moved from the “projected” column to the “unavoidable” – a consequence of continued failure to rein in global emissions. Now the Ukraine fiasco is taking our minds off CO2 emissions, rainforest destruction, et cetera. BTW In 2021, emissions increased 6% (95 million metric tons CO2e) above 2020 levels. It’s enough to turn one into a cynic.

      1. ‘It’s enough to turn one into a cynic’

        More of a cynic?
        Territory to explore.

        1. Doug and Hicks , the UN is now past expiry date just like NATO , OPEC , EU etc . They are nothing but resting places for failed politicians , failed bureaucrats to earn big salaries and a big pension . Do you know who Herman Rompuy is ? He is a failed Belgian politician who was the first President of the EU . In one year he did nothing but kiss babies and cut ribbons . After 12 mths he gets a pension of Euro 400000 per year untaxed . George Carlin was correct , ” It is a club and you ain’t in it ”
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nyvxt1svxso&ab_channel=SkyEcho7

          1. Herman Rompuy made Nigel Farage famous. so for better or worse, he accomplished something.

          2. The former president’s pension will amount to £52,000 a year before tax or 21.375% of his final basic salary.

            Is the independent wrong?

  3. Thanks for the post . As is said ” Collapse is a journey (process ) and not an event .” The best scenario compares to an old house that is being disassembled ‘ “one brick at a time ” but the bricks are being removed from the bottom and not from the top . The house may look liveable from the outside and some people may still be living inside but the structure itself is unstable . The residents will see it in the form of cracks in the floor , walls , crooked pipes, or leaking pipes . They however will continue to live until the day a critical brick will be removed and the collapse of the building will become the event . All will forget the process . Same is happening now to our civilization ” one brick at a time “

    1. HIH,

      Quite right.

      Like drinking champaign at 40K feet and watching the wing lose a rivet…
      or two…
      then three…

  4. As far as “vectors for collapse”, peak oil seemed a strong candidate for the fact that its a numbers game, and typically you can’t cheat numbers. In peak oil’s case, you definitely could: throw enough money at LTO and boom, no more peak oil… for a while. Quick flare up of Nuclear Fallout in 2011 with Fukushima. Meanwhile climate change had a great run this past two decades, with disaster after disaster really racking up the Tab. Then, of course, the dark horse johnny-come-lately Pandemic (which people did predict, but still, kind of came out of nowhere in terms of intensity and impact, shifting the sociology of humanity in two years). Then you have the unraveling of society under capitalism: forcing all decisions under the lens of individual advancement and filtered through consumption for 70 years. Not a great system for adapting humanity to the vectors mentioned above.

    But I always come back to peak oil because of the simple fact that peak oil puts a CAP on top of any and all responses to all other crises. I know some here will argue that growth no longer needs increasing energy inputs, but I disagree: free real estate was the first to go once Westward expansion was completed and the US was “settled”, then the world’s resources were chopped up and fed into Capitalism’s great Maw, then near-endless credit reached its commanding heights, and now free (read surplus) energy has also (nearly) run its course. We’ve speculated bubble after bubble into oblivion, including imaginary assets with cryptocurrency.

    And so it’s easy to see that we are reaching the end of the expansion of a great many things. Only if capitalism is able to convince us that the “Pod is Good”, jack into the Metaverse, and turn us from consumers to “users”, where we live off bug-slurry as we grind out whatever work the system can provide in order to survive.

    It’s been picking up steam pretty steadily since 2008 with periods of tension and periods of calm, but I’m willing to bet everything I’m worth that within the next 28 years, before 2050, the world won’t look anything like it does today. It already doesn’t look like what it did before 2008, even if not everyone can perceive that change. But these next transitions will, I think, be a little more obvious.

    1. Correct 2 cats . Oil is the marker because it can be measured . I have said that the three legs of our industrial civilisation are oil , electricity and metals . Of these oil is the key . Once it goes ( I would say once it goes below MOL{Minimum Operating Level} then our goose is cooked . Coming to metals very few know that aluminium stocks worldwide which were for 24-30 months are now down to 12 months because plants are shutdown due to high energy costs . Rolling blackouts in China are now a norm and this is creeping into other industrial societies . We talk about low oil production because of lack of investment in E &P etc in the industry . The investments in electricity production , grid maintenance etc have been even worse . The system is too fragile currently . Which straw will break the camel’s back ?

  5. One measure of the early stages of collapse might be the number of international sports competitions that get cancelled or deferred. It started with the Ryder Cup after 9/11 then several tournaments because of Covid and now motor races in Russia. The big four yearly events might dwindle away as nations become too poor or refuse to compete against those they are at war (Norway may end up with all the winter olympic medals as the only country with enough money and snow to compete), but once one is cancelled it will be, if not the beginning of the end, then certainly the end of the beginning for global collapse.

    It will be interesting to see the timing and order that big four US sports tournaments disappear. They might all go in one cataclysm or split into smaller parts as the country does the same but I’d say the big finals will disappear as :Hockey, Baseball, Football, Basketball. Basketball last as it needs the least equipment. Stock car racess and golf tournaments would have gone well before those.

    1. Yes George . International sports events like tourism are akin to ” froth ” on top of a beer . We can do without the ” froth ” , but the beer —hmmm . 🙂

    2. There is some danger in confusing decline with changing fashion. Monster sports events were a bellwether of growth modernity and globalization in the 20th century, but seem less and less compelling today. They really don’t matter except as entertainment.

      This occurred to me when I was watching a youtube video by a musicologist lamenting the death of pop music. I you look at modern streaming services, you see that kids these days prefer oldies to the much better produced stuff they crank out today. It confused this guy, because when he was young everyone wanted to be a popstar. Nowadays kids would rather play video games. It isn’t the end of the world, just of pop music.

      Anther example is film award ceremonies like the Oscars. In the late 20th century they were the height of glamour. Nobody really cares any more, ratings are down and they seem parochial and are increasingly mired in controversy. Online services are churning out such vast quantities of video material (mostly as series, not in the traditional 90 minute film format) that it’s impossible to keep track in a single award ceremony anyway. The show is over, but it doesn’t matter. We’ve moved on.

      I think mass sporting events like the Olympics or the World Cup are headed the same way. They are too big for a single city to host, and their audience are online — TV as a separate medium is dead too. There they compete with all the other crap coming online. Even if their revenues increase in absolute terms, their relative cultural impact is in decline. Any competent city planner will tell you that hosting an event like that is a waste of money, which is why they are increasingly hosted by dictators with inferiority complexes.

      1. Except for World Cup I agree 🙂 The final match had an average audience of 517 million with over a billion total watching some part of the match. I think World Cup will be the last global event to go. The Olympics is wonderful, but whether such and such shaves 0.2 seconds off some record is just hard to pitch. And tallying the golds is also a little faded. But World Cup victory. That’s still a big deal. (Editor’s note: Croatia was robbed, penalties rigged it).

      2. I know very little about music, but sometime back I got into a conversation with a REAL professional……. and remarked that in my own personal opinion, ninety nine percent plus of all new popular music DESERVES to be forgotten in three months…..just like you forgot the fast food hamburger you ate three months ago.

        He absolutely agreed.

        Oldies rule, really, except for mindless immediate consumption. Maybe one new composition out of every thousand will be an oldie.

    3. I would say these events can be carried on (in increasingly modified ways) such that any collapse will not be noticeable there. None of the events you list were really “collapse” related issues. I’m assuming 9/11 Ryder Cup was cancelled just like SNL was cancelled, out of respect. And Covid is just to prevent infection. The amount of money committed to these events is pretty high. Olympics is a weird one just because its been clear for about 30 years that the Olympics are not good for the economies or residents of the Host Cities. So they are collapsing just out of sheer expense and lack of public support.

  6. I’m confident the human species will somehow muddle on through no matter what Mother Nature throws at us. I am lucky in many respects that my father left me a home on Whidbey Island so even though I could move north to avoid a collapse fueled by climate change I see no reason since climate change seems to mostly be local and in my case coastal California gets a marine layer which won’t go away unless the continents suddenly shift. Lol. On the other hand, one of my sons lives in Yuba City which got to 107 under last year’s big heat dome. Pas Robles got to 105 but 20 miles away Cambria was foggy and 62 degrees. California has a lot of strange micro climates like that. Some of them may indeed become unlivable in coming decades whether from heat or drought but going on my own experience in Santa Barbara there’s been no climate change here in 50 years.

    1. Below is Santa Barbara county January temperatures from NOAA in degrees Fahrenheit. Average has risen 4-5, Maximum 5-6.

    2. I’m sure the ravaging hoardes of climate refugees flooding into any and all habitable spaces will seem very “muddled”. As will the reactions of the residents who live there that are prepared. Jobs in Body Removal Squads will certainly be some of the better paying.

  8. What drug or medical condition has made Putin’s face blow up like a balloon?

    1. Steroid is the most likely candidate. They can also have considerable mental side effects.

      But his behavior might just be due to his belief system.

      1. Thanks for the great postings Matt
        -http://crudeoilpeak.info/russian-oil-production-update-nov-2021

    3. Vodka will give you a bloated red face, and has plenty of side effects like sleep loss, high blood pressure etc.

      I’d say from the pictures that Putin’s been hitting the bottle pretty hard. Sometimes the simplest explanations are the best.

  11. Methane from the Arctic comes and goes as an immediate major issue. Some recent studies are suggesting release from shallow sub-seas is a potential time bomb, especially as the sea floor is warming significantly in places. However only the abstract is in front of the paywall and it doesn’t indicate how fast it might take to happen but having a trillion tonnes of methane available for release there must be a wide range of melt rates that would cause problems..

    THE ARCTIC SEAFLOOR IS DEGRADING AND COULD BE A CLIMATE TIME BOMB: https://www.vice.com/en/article/7kbmzb/the-arctic-seafloor-is-degrading-and-could-be-a-climate-time-bomb

  12. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 140.7 points in February 2022, up 3.9 percent from January and … 24.1 percent above its level a year ago. This represents a new all-time high.

    1. John thanks and please keep us updated . I am looking to the last quarter when real shortages will happen because of fertiliser shortage in the current sowing season and resource nationalism .

        1. Copy paste “Russia, it seems to me, will plant on time. The winter has been mild but snowy, so the soil moisture is good. It is reasonable to expect a good crop. Ukraine may plat on time too. April is 4 weeks away. ”
          I hope this can be resolved otherwise the next harvest is lost .

  13. This analysis doesn’t explore the impact emerging and new technologies will have on improving society in the coming decades. Thus the analysis is demonstrably incomplete. Somebody in 1952 could have written largely the same thing, thinking “collapse” would be right around the corner based on what they considered reality at the time, but they would have been gravely mistaken because they wouldn’t have foreseen the new technologies that came about in the 1970s, 1980s, and beyond. In the end, technology always wins out.

    1. “In the end, technology always wins out.” – hermanthemachine

      Nope. Technology is merely a derivative of energy manipulation. Without fossil-fuel energy there can be no modern technology.

      So the focus must be directed on the importance of, and the supplies of, fossil-fuel, particularly oil which allows coal and gas to be produced at scale.

      There is a disappointing “fallacy of misplaced concreteness” in your analysis which is found far too often in otherwise thoughtful and educated people, but is common in an age of abstraction and distraction.

    1. With the world’s biggest shipping lines boycotting Russia, it doesn’t look like Putin has much choice in the matter.
      One thing that the Russian government should keep in mind when it comes to tit-for-tat sanctions (or special economic operations, as they may prefer to call them): In a war of attrition, the little guy loses.

      With an economy about the size of Spain’s and shrinking fast, Russia is not in a good position to wage economic war against the US, Japan and the EU combined.

      The irony of al the is that Russia has been waging a low level war against the West for years. It doesn’t seem to have occurred to them that the West could strike back with non-military measures.

      Another boycott is by Airbus and Boeing, which are stopping spare parts shipments and maintenance on Russian planes. This will put their fleet out of operation within weeks. Putin has declared a stop to overseas Aeroflot flights, which may sound tough, but he isn’t being given a choice.

      1. For Putin, it is now or never. He’s 70 and been dreaming about controlling people with energy and resources for years.

        He has been salivating waiting for Peak Oil.

        Actions speak louder than words!!

  16. It’s literally impossible to know how the cards will fall over the next few decades, because there are too many variables, and random chance plays too big a role.

    Things could be a LOT worse than hypothesized in this piece.

    But there’s nothing in it, at least not in the first part, about why things might not get so bad, or so fast.

    Consider for instance that birth rates may fall faster than expected, and that contagious diseases may wipe out substantial numbers of people.

    I’m a farmer, and I know not only between by ears but in my GUT just how fast things can go to hell in terms of food supplies on a regional basis, and such regions can and do occasionally encompass areas measured in hundreds of miles, even a thousand miles or more across. A super drought or super flood season is not out of the question, given the climate issue.

    Now what happens if a hundred million desperately poor people living by subsistence farming and fishing have a really bad year, once the shit is in the fan?

    It’s not out of the question that a billion people could starve in a given year, given population patterns and densities today, and the possibility that not only a bad growing season but also shortages of fuel and fertilizer could be compounded by an uncontrollable blight or insect infestation…… both far more likely due to continuing environmental degradation.

    But if this does happen…. well, the pressure would largely be OFF for a few years following, because there would still be about the same amount of production capacity on a local or regional basis but far fewer mouths to feed.

    They’ll probably starve in place. I can’t see very much happening in the way of providing relief once people in more FORMERLY prosperous countries are giving up beef and even chicken for bread and beans.

    They’ll be met an national borders with fences, and behind the fences will be men with guns, who will not be at all reluctant to shoot as many as come within range.

    And while it’s altogether possible that governments right and left will fail miserably in terms of taking care of all these potential problems, there’s also a very real possibility, maybe even a probability, that a good many countries will have functional and effective governments capable of doing whatever MUST be done to prevent society from crashing and burning.

    If for instance we were to spend as much here in the USA on a per capita basis as we spend on alcohol, tobacco and cosmetics we could probably be running on wind and solar power alone in twenty years and producing enough synthetic fuel using otherwise off peak and surplus renewable electricity to run any machinery that HAS to run.

    Any body in this country outside the urban areas where cost are totally insane already could spend as much as he spends on a new car….. which he could do without…….. on his house could likely approach a net zero energy balance and SELL energy back to his local grid in millions of cases.

    In any case the odds are pretty high I won’t be around to see how it all plays out.

    1. Collapse is a too multifaceted topic for me to comment on, really. I don’t like to comment on something outside certain safety standards. Mostly meaning outside my field of competency, unless I state it. The whole discussion about energy transition is very interesting. But in the event of warfare around the world where energy is a central part; I fear that the discussion is going to be much less open.

      But I am going to comment if it feels appropriate on this site. Let’s see where that may lead.

    2. OFM , not my thoughts , just a copy / paste . What do you feel about this ? A small part going to lead to a collapse ?
      What a web, we mortals weave .
      “We’re all going to be gleaners soon. The only thing worse than that would be, without combine parts, we have to go into the fields by hand again not as gleaners but harvesters. We have no tools, no sickles, no scythes, no skill, no sheaves, no barns, no threshers, no granaries, no pantries, and most likely in that case, no trucks to move all the people and sheaves. That places the planet on the apex of one machine that has massive parts disruption: a $500,000 harvester combine. I’m sure after the Dark Ages, the new Renaissance will use this as the reason the new Rome fell.”

      1. For want of a nail the kingdom was lost.

        “A proverb having numerous variations over several centuries, reminding that seemingly unimportant acts of omission can have grave and unforeseen consequences…

        It describes a condition where there is a failure to predict or correct a minor issue which escalates and compounds into a major issue…

        Such chains of causality are perceived only in hindsight.”

        Chief Justice John Roberts has cited this reasoning in several U.S. Supreme Court decisions.

  17. Projecting a current trend into oblivion is not a likely timeline with organics. Humans change the rules along the way via politics, technology, innovation, etc. etc. A linear projection of constant human crisis into the future is unlikely to be reality because humans adapt. So, the Orgfarm projection of Collapse is strongly unlikely. We humans have been doomed at least every 25 years for millennia.

    1. “We humans have been doomed at least every 25 years for millennia.”

      Dream on. There is no precedent for what is happening to our planet right now either in human population or environmental degradation. Of course, CO2e levels are currently higher than any time since homo sapiens appeared, and increasing rapidly.

      1. And let’s not mention such things as the Late Bronze Age Collapse, when whole civilizations vanished, their cities burned and their writing systems forgotten.

        1. Hi Mike B , Long time no see . Those who forget history are condemned to repeat it . Tragedy .

          1. Yes sir , we are still here . Difficult to exterminate humans and cockroaches . 🙂

      2. No Precedent? The Earth has cooled, heated, transgressed, regressed, faulted and throbbed thousands of times over the past billion+ years. Tell me exactly what “Dream On” means Doug.

    1. “Western Europe needs Russian oil and gas, Russian wheat, and essential Russian minerals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel. Sanctions against Russia will soon boomerang in terms of higher oil and gas prices for Europeans and Americans, more inflation, worsening supply chains, and the dreaded “economic uncertainty” afflicting stock markets and consumer spending.”

      The road is curvy

    2. John , he is a historian . He is not a military analyst .( Suggestion see Scott Ridder on the other thread ) He does not understand that Putin’s goals are limited to what he has asked for as per his bullet points . Putin is a student of history . Yes , the war in Ukraine will change everything ( I disagree ” could ” ) . It will be the end of US being the policeman of the world . What the US should now worry about now that we are past peak oil and into the terminal phase of LTG
      1. How to close the worldwide web of bases ?
      2. How to get the thousands of US personnel based overseas back home? .
      3. How to remploy these personnel whose only talent is to shoot and kill ?
      This is not the end of WW II when there was surplus ” nett energy ” This is when ” nett energy per capita ” has bottomed out . A confluence of peak oil , peak gas and peak oil . A perfect storm . Batchen down your hatches as they say when the submarine is going to go underwater .

      1. I’ve known and know a fair number of people who wear Uncle Sam’s uniform.

        Damned near all of them are responsible and knowledgeable in at least one area of work that will enable them to at least obtain an entry level job with some possibility of advancement. That’s a good bit more than I can say for the general population of citizens about the same age, even including maybe half of all college students I’ve met.

    1. Stable genius. The world certainly dodged a bullet when his coup failed.

  20. “…not a likely timeline, crisis into the future is unlikely, collapse is strongly unlikely…”
    – gungalonga

    Normalcy bias leads people to disbelieve threat warnings. Individuals underestimate the likelihood of disaster. They minimize potential adverse affects and conclude disaster won’t affect them.

    It’s described as “one of the most dangerous cognitive biases we have”.

    It’s a systematic pattern of deviation from reality that can lead to inaccurate judgment, illogical interpretation, or what is broadly called “irrationality”. It’s caused by “lack of mental mechanisms” or “a limited capacity for information processing”.

    And by some estimates, it affects 70% of the population during periods of crisis.

    So it should be no surprise to read goofy comments trying to deny a scenario that’s based on overwhelming evidence.

  21. just to share for your entainment from another blog I visit . vis running out of oil

    ” Just read up on Abiotic oil theory and go from there.
    The inside people doing the field research and technological
    development know there is something huge down there that makes
    all of our current views of oil and its limitations look small.”

    oh, not that one again……. (sighs )

  22. A link from Phys.org:

    Lead Exposure in last century shrunk IQ scores of half Americans.

    “A new study calculates that exposure to car exhaust from leaded gas during childhood stole a collective 824 million IQ points from more than 170 million Americans alive today, about half the population of the United States.”

    “Dropping a few IQ points may seem negligible, but the authors note that these changes are dramatic enough to potentially shift people with below-average cognitive ability (IQ score of less than 85) to being classified as having an intellectual disability (IQ score below 70).”

    https://medicalxpress.com/news/2022-03-exposure-century-shrunk-iq-scores.html

  24. GLOBAL CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS REBOUNDED TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVEL IN HISTORY IN 2021

    The rebound of global CO2 emissions above pre-pandemic levels has largely been driven by China, where they increased by 750 million tons between 2019 and 2021. China was the only major economy to experience economic growth in both 2020 and 2021. The emissions increases in those two years in China more than offset the aggregate decline in the rest of the world over the same period. In 2021 alone, China’s CO2 emissions rose above 11.9 billion tons, accounting for 33% of the global total.

    Meanwhile, President Xi Jinping, is not expected to attend COP26, China where more than 1,000 coal plants are in operation and, effective Oct 31, 2021 roughly 240 more are in planning stage or already under construction.

    https://phys.org/news/2022-03-global-carbon-dioxide-emissions-rebounded.html

    https://www.google.com/search?q=new coal plants china&rlz=1C1GCEA_enCA871CA871&oq=new coal plants china&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i22i30l9.17933j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

  25. A big block to overcoming the upcoming famines is the laziness of those who are spoilt by easy energy. Like in 1929, there’ll be those committing suicide because they can’t conceive of a future that doesn’t include the usual first-world trappings. The elevator’s broken – the stairs are much too steep …

    1. It seems to me that using the car battery for home power should be reserved for emergency situations, rather than as a routine use.
      This is because the battery pack of a vehicle is very expensive, and you will wear it down much more quickly by adding additional charge/discharge cycles.
      Agree?

      1. Yes, that would be a concern to me and my 100K Hummer. The video starts by presenting home power for blackouts and outages. But, the PG&E CEO later gives the impression it could be for more. I would think the engineers would design it for minimal shortening of the life of the vehicle. But on the other hand, the Stop/Start in my GM product stopped working less than a years after the warranty expired and a short life cycle of the original 12v battery.

      2. Hi Hickory,

        Do you know of any models about this possibility?

        A few thousand kilowatt hours sourced from a car battery over the course of a year at times when juice is in short supply might be worth quite a bit to the owner of the car.

        1. I don’t OFM.
          Agree that for rare emergency use vehicle battery would be very useful.

          Yet one pays a lot for a battery that has both high density and less weight such as is used in a vehicle.
          Less expensive battery storage is available for stationary applications, and ideally one would use that kind of battery to regularly interact with the grid-home-solar-vehicle.
          companies like Generac, Enphase, LG, Tesla… are ramping up home/business stationary battery storage systems with energy management control systems.
          https://www.zdnet.com/article/best-home-battery/
          https://www.cleanenergyreviews.info/blog/home-solar-battery-systems

    2. OT:
      May be moving back Behind The Orange Curtain, to possibly Huntington Beach.
      It has been 25 years.
      Family related issue.
      Warm Barrels at least

        1. Surf—-
          If you never been there, no way anyone could understand.
          I ski, run rivers, etc–
          But nothing is close to the Green Room

        2. https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1RXQR_enUS976US976&source=univ&tbm=isch&q=Warm+Barrels+surf&fir=4pS8cotIq5V_OM%252Ca3WXio_hrITemM%252C_%253B9DQuMkjmFCWHxM%252Cvll6dB52mM5DlM%252C_%253B9w_oT3UCKwVARM%252CQgu1C_dThImF2M%252C_%253B9LWTdNub8apM8M%252CSTRr7OHC6lEoSM%252C_%253BBPXUaEtXJ7i9cM%252Ca3WXio_hrITemM%252C_%253By5RGWDMynX0igM%252Ca3WXio_hrITemM%252C_%253BVtGRgFNgG36OTM%252CiGSOtkWxS1kJOM%252C_%253BCSamhekDX6AYAM%252CiGSOtkWxS1kJOM%252C_%253BznAEJftxxT71GM%252CUPkdiPNrlv0p5M%252C_%253BvT5Pa7S06Qeu5M%252C-yWhtsWsNGCqXM%252C_&usg=AI4_-kR1gKy1Bs-vWlqTNYvV9rNf0GJnoQ&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjUidv-ibz2AhWxD0QIHZ2zCO0Q7Al6BAgIEC4&biw=1536&bih=722&dpr=1.25

    1. Peak , see my post at 6 am on the other thread in response to HHH . The action of the US declaring the reserves worthless is going to press the pedal on the de dollarization of the world’s economic and financial structure . Economic warfare is not for children to play , someone is going to get hurt .

    2. If Putin didn’t expect economic warfare to result from the invasion of Ukraine, then he is much less of keen observer of the world reality than people generally make him out to be.
      And he is a cruel asshole.
      I’m not big on authoritarianism.

      1. Hicks, the economic warfare was war gamed and that is why he has moved equally fast to defend himself . His central bank chief is Ms Elvira Nabiullina twice she has won ” Central banker of the year ” award judged by her peers . His advisor is Sergei Glaziev since 2014 who. for several years has advocated de dollarization of the Russian economy and self dependency . Putin achieved self dependency because of 8 years of sanctions . That is why there are no GBP, Yen ,AUD ,CAD in his reserves basket .All were converted to gold . His Euro and USD reserves are extremely low . The SWIFT action is already taken care off . Just a bump on the road .

        1. I know you are a proud cheerleader of Putin [Authoritarian of the Decade], yet
          The invasion of Ukraine is hell day and night for 44 million people,
          and it was 100% an optional action.
          You seem manically gleeful to witness hardship and destruction.

          To some degree the repercussions of this invasion will be shitty for most of the world.
          Russian people will feel Putins evil game hard.
          Hopefully they will put his ass in the ground.

          This invasion has nothing to do with Russian security. No one in the neighborhood could invade them, except China. Its about attempting to create a bigger Russia, by force and death.
          And the vast majority of the peoples in the surrounding countries want absolutely nothing to do with that.

          1. Hicks, I generally mostly agree with your views, but in this case I kind of disagree. Remember Stalingrad? The non-aggresion pact with Hitler? It´s not that far from Donbass.
            So what if China put up a puppet regime in Mexico, placing nuces there, would you not have oppinions?
            I´m just a bystander, but you need to see the big, old, picture.
            Edit: the russians lost 20 M people in WW2 fighting Nazi Germany, so I think they should have some respect for that.
            (Stalin´s leadership was extremely costly, but none the less)
            Btw. where´s Victoria Nuland?

            1. Laplander , Victoria Nuland . If I check her out in 2016 (Ukraine on Fire ) and today . She is obese and has been eating too many Big Macs (junk food is junk mind) . However she continues to be a threat to mankind with her neocon background . Sideshow , the following stopped operations in Russia . FB, Twitter , Pornhub , Mcdonalds, Coke . Very good . Healthier physically and mentally Russians . I hope all these corporations also withdraw from the planet because they are causing pollution not only physical but also mental.

            2. Laplander-
              if Mexico voted to be in the sphere of influence and protection of China, so be it.
              Self- determination rules in my book.
              Taiwan’s choices should be respected as well.
              Ukraine voters indicate strongly that they prefer an independent nation with a closer alignment to Europe rather than just a Ukrainian version of Belarus, ruled by an autocrat approved by Putin. I would feel the same way i suspect.
              Same goes for Sweden and Finland.

              I do think that NATO should commit to coming to Russian aid if it was invaded by someone.

          2. Hicks . all your questions ( accusations ) have already been answered in response to my post to Ron on this issue . Now my question to you ? My guess is you are based in Canada . Where were you when the truckers surrounded Ottawa ? Hiding in the basement ? Where were you when Trudeau implemented ” Emergency powers ” to seize all bank accounts which means cancellation of the basic of capitalism which is ” right to private property ” ? My guess is supporting him . Where were you when NATO illegally bombed Serbia ? Where were you when NATO ( US) got involved in Syria supporting ISIS ? Where were you when innocents were bombed by KSA in Yemen ? Where were you when NATO declared a ” no fly zone ” over Libya ? Where were you when Syrian refugees were coming and the West was putting up razor fences to keep them out ? Where were you when US drones killed 10 innocent civilians in Afghanistan just prior to withdrawal ? Where were you when Washington confiscated $ 9 billion of Afghani deposits ? You sir are intelligent but have blinkers on , I can do nothing , might as well be talking to someone who talks about abiotic oil . Open the blinds and sunshine will come .

      2. Does America neeed other countries to buy treasury bonds to rollover debt and fund deficit spending?

        Well the FED just sent a message they can be made worthless.

        I personally like to be paid back when I loan money or I want a higher interest rate to account for inflation and risk.

        1. HIH,
          Sometimes I think you’re bright like the sun…….. and other times, forgive me, I think you’re as obscure as a black hole.

          Now here’s THE question, when it comes to using gold as backing for a currency.
          Who will take Russian money not knowing if Putin will honor it?

          The mere possession of gold doesn’t mean he can convince other countries to trade in rubles.

          Will he actually turn over gold for electrons or physical paper if there’s a crisis and countries with rubles want the gold because the ruble is more or less worthless outside Russian borders?

          I understand that China for instance might take rubles for machinery or other goods in the expectation that Russia will take them back in exchange for oil or minerals.

          But if Russia can’t redeem rubles by way of exporting oil……..

          Can China trust Russia?

          Can anybody else?

          1. If we start trading things in gold….you better start investing in ammunition

            ammunition backed currency

            if i have a gold backed ruble….but I am in China and gold is in Russia. How can I be certain I can exchange my RUBLE for my GOLD.

        2. The way I see American funny money working in this world is that we’re running the world’s biggest, longest lasting, and possibly least understood Ponzi scheme.

          Consider a labor union or other pension fund buying government bonds of any sort here inside the USA.

          The interest rate on this sort of paper is generally so low, in historical terms, as to be a joke, given the realities of inflation, and the realities of REAL WORLD changes in prices due to new technologies, real or potential shortages of raw materials, etc.

          And the people who make the decisions to actually buy these bonds absolutely HAVE to know they are piss poor investments. But they buy them anyway, because they’re collecting salaries as managers and organization leaders, and won’t be around when it’s time to cash them in, at a loss in most cases, in terms of actual purchasing power.

          They continue to buy them because this is the way the game is played. It continues to work so long as everybody continues to play……… so long as the eventual day of reckoning is only dimly visible or over the horizon.

          If there’s once a real crisis of confidence….. all those electrons , all that paper, will crash, maybe all the way to zero.

          I believe the rest of the world buys our paper mostly because it’s practical and convenient, not to mention there’s not really anything else available to serve the same function….. ( We have worked hard to make sure of this, lol.)

          Knowing that in the long run it’s a VERY bad investment…… but that in the SHORT to medium run, it’s safe……. so long as every body continues to play along.

          It will remain safe so long as anybody who wants to SELL finds plenty of buyers in the market….

          But there’s no way in HELL all that paper can EVER be redeemed, unless I am personally as dumb as a fence post.

          Sooner or later, we will default…… and what’s the rest of the world going to do about it?

          Quit taking it, and quit shipping stuff, ANY stuff, unless it’s paid for cash on the barrel head, with gold or some other precious metal or by way of barter….. say a few shiploads of wheat in exchange for a ship load of aluminum or other metal in short supply here in the USA?

          If I remember right, some city state, I think it was Florence, managed to keep a somewhat similar banking scheme running successfully for a few hundred years before it fell apart a few centuries back.

          Now as to how long the USA can hold on as the world’s top dog…….. that’s hard to say…. maybe a few more decades, maybe a century or even a number of centuries.

          1. I’m not so sure Gold will become the currency of choice. What can a country or an individual do with Gold? Oil/Energy is far more valuable. Finished products. Legal rights on grain harvests. That’s what we will begin to see more of but not for a while yet.

  28. From another blog but this is what it looks like today .
    There is a pail with a hole in the bottom. Water leaking out. Someone “smart” said that we should nail a piece of metal (like a rivet) to close the hold. A metal sheet and 4 rivets/nails were used.

    The hole was sealed. No water leaked. After some time, water start leaking from the 4 rivet holes. So, the “smart” guy repeats the same process because it worked the first time. So, you have 4 pieces of metal and 16 holes.

    Ad infinitum. That is where we are now. The holes are getting more and more. The water starts to leak more and more and no one has any idea or any will power to stop this.

    It all ends when there is no more water or there are just too many holes to repair.

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