Peak Oil Barrel

198 responses to “April World and Non-OPEC Oil Production Drops”

1. Iver

   08/13/2025

   “For December 2026, production is projected to be 84,592 b/d, essentially the same as November 2018. Also in November 2025, production is expected to exceed 85,000 kb/d. Will November 2025 be the World’s New Peak Oil date?”

   I would say there is very good chance we will see a new global oil production peak and a new 12 month moving average high. China and other countries will take advantage of the low prices to fill up storage.
   Consumption will increase as long as governments keep piling trillions of debt into the economy.

   1. Ovi

      08/13/2025

      Iver

      It all depends on whether the OPEC 9 meet their target in September and more specifically SA, UAE and Kuwait. For July these three produced, 9,526 kb/d, 3,169 kb/d and 2,452 kb/d of oil, respectively. All three were virtually on the July target. The production target for September for the OPEC 9 is attached. SA needs to add 452 kb/d, 206 kb/d and Kuwait 96 kb/d, respectively.

      With the price of oil dropping OPEC may roll out the September increment over 2 or 3 months.

   2. Iver

      08/14/2025

      Ovi

      I am not sure exactly when a new peak will occur, perhaps as soon as October but perhaps a few months later.
      The 12 month moving average is in my mind more certain to be broken by early next year. The 12 month moving average centred around November 2018 was 82.6? I think. So if oil production just stays where it is for another 6 months that will be surpassed.

      OPEC Oil Monthly Report had Saudi oil production increase in April who is correct?

      Price will be everything as to how much U.S. production decreases and how much OPEC decides to increase production. If demand is there, then prices will be high enough for both OPEC increases and U.S. producers. Some think oil demand will peak around 2030.

      https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-2025/executive-summary

      In which case one has to ask, will OPEC have any spare capacity by then? With some 50 countries in decline it is likely the world will finally be at peak geological oil production.

   3. Ovi

      08/14/2025

      Iver

      When you mentioned the OPEC April report, just wondering if you meant August. Regardless after the direct company August report, the following note is attached.

      ** Saudi Arabia’s supply to the market was 9,360 tb/d and 9,525 tb/d in June and July 2025, respectively;
      Saudi Arabia’s production was 9,752 tb/d and 9,201 tb/d in June and July 2025, respectively.
      Source: OPEC.

2. Kengeo

   08/13/2025

   Thanks Ovi, great write up/presentation of the data.
   I believe the projections have not lived up to the hype for many years, with that in mind it doesn’t bode well for a new high. If a new high were to happen it would likely be very short lived.

   1. Westexasfanclub

      08/13/2025

      Kengo,I think we have to see the big picture: The world is at a plateau which means at peak. Period. With all the growth needed to reach a peaceful outcome of the actual global tensions, it looks like the world is sliding into a big clusterfuck. Hope I‘m wrong.
      And thanks to Ovi for his great work.

   2. Ovi

      08/13/2025

      Westexasfanclub

      Thanks. Much appreciated.

      Let’s hope the King of the World can bring about peace in Ukraine when he meets with Putin in Russia (sic).

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9uF6wlwGo3U

   3. Mike Shellman

      08/13/2025

      I often check in to POB and want to contribute. I was in the oil and gas business for 55 years, as a producer, as an operator, and owned working interest in shale oil wells. I am dialed into the Permian Basin in a number of ways.

      Then I read this sort of stupid, meaningless shit about the “king of the world,” I think…why say that? What is the purpose in that? I don’t want any part of it.

      Clearly, neither did LTO Survivor, a really important source of information. You morons ran him off because you can’t keep politics out of your lives.

      The industry in Texas is close; we mostly all know of each other. You guys are making fools of yourself in my industry. I hear that all the time. If you want to cater to the likes of H. Beach and Nick G, and left wing bullshit, you are on the right track. What does that have to do with peak affordable oil?

      700,000 people fled California last year.

      Dennis, you have changed your perspective on things. I hope you are reading my stuff at OSB. Economics now, below $65, headed for below $60, is the key to everything. All of it. Actually, I am proud of you. I mean that. Your analysis and charts have become more relevant to reality.

      Nobody makes money in the shale sector, oil or gas, below $60 /$3. NOBODY. So, where is the money going to come from to stay on a “peak, stabilized plateau?”

      Don’t be intimated by people like Nony, or Coffee they don’t know anything about oil and gas other than what they read on the internet. Its a game to them, a pass time. Have you ever read anything they have published, or are willing to put their real name behind? Annoying is an idiot that likes to draw attention to herself by criticizing others. She cannot make a point unless it is at the expense of others. 98% of the time her comments don’t even warrant a response.

      Follow the money, Dennis. Past results are never an indication of future performance in the oil and gas business. It now has nothing to do with rocks, or politics, or “efficiency”… it is all about money and where it is going to come from. It will NOT come from the shale oil and shale gas industry. At current product prices they are broke, and, I promise you, sweating bullets. Their lenders are shitting bricks. They do not have the PDP below $70 to ever pay all that debt back.

      The only way U.S. shale oil grows production henceforth is thru more debt. If that is what America wants, they’ve got it. Let these idiots roll, drain our country dry, and export it all. Below costs. Add $400B of lost capital prior to 2021, another $250B currently, and plugging and decommissioning costs, another $50B, add that to all the rest of America’s debt and have a nice day.

   4. Iver

      08/14/2025

      Mike opec has several million of spare capacity and Iraq has potential to increase production.

      https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-independent-oil-firms-elbow-into-iraqs-majors-dominated-market-2025-08-04/

      Hopefully oil prices will pick up but probably not til next year.

   5. shallow sand

      08/14/2025

      I’m sorry that LTO Survivor no longer posts here.

      I hope things are going well with you, Mike.

      We are all still good. Hoping that both oil and grain prices will turn around someday. But it’s not looking good right now. Selling half our new crop corn around $4 earlier this summer was depressing to say the least. But it has continued to tank.

      Hoping President Trump can pull a rabbit out of the hat with China to save soybeans, otherwise new crop are headed under $9 IMO. Winter wheat prices of low $4’s weren’t great. We planted zero milo acres because it’s $3.

      Little reported, but there was a farm payment in March, another one about a week ago, and more to follow.

      That’s one huge difference between grain and oil. No bailouts. I’m proud of the fact we are still standing after $8 in 1998, $25 in 2009, $25 in 2016 and $14 in 2020. Pretty hard to believe. I saw the COVID crash help destroy a young producer here. Nice young man and family, bought some leases in late 2018.

      He and his wife are now divorced and he hasn’t being doing good. Lost the leases, sold for a fraction of what he paid. It’s been hard to watch.

      I made a comment in the last post that maybe ExxonMobil is going to grow their Permian production (as opposed to Chevron, who says it isn’t) because it has more New Mexico acreage. As I recall, they bought a ton of lease/acreage from the Bass Family (BOPCO?) that was in New Mexico.

      I noted that without New Mexico, the USA would have already peaked.

      Would appreciate your thoughts on the Delaware Basin and in particular New Mexico (Eddy and Lea Counties). Would really appreciate LTO Survivor’s too.

      It is my impression that the Midland Basin is really crowded with wells. I had thought Midland was generally more economic than New Mexico and Loving County, given produced water, GOR issues, and infrastructure. Maybe I’m wrong on that.

      This stuff can’t be working to well at $62 WTI.

      Last, I have a really good friend from up here who went down to the Goldsmith field to work at the Phillips 66 gas plant. It was DCP, but he says Duke Energy is now out. He has a lot of good stories about living down there “in a tin can.” He says he’s never seen such big spiders as he has down there.

      Take care.

   6. Mike Shellman

      08/14/2025

      I am happy to hear from you, Shallow. You should be proud; I can’t believe those grain prices. Wow. I saw that Mr. Trump is actually bartering with U.S soybeans. Now oil is going to the mid $50’s, which for him is still too high.

      I’d like to answer your question, but not here. I will later today or tomorrow on the forum at OSB and call it Shallow Sand. I am actually waiting on new Novi data about Exxon in New Mexico, which is not pretty unless one likes the e in boe.

   7. DC

      08/14/2025

      Hi Mike,

      Ovi is from Canada and I am pretty sure he is not impressed with his nation being called the 51st state, imagine for a moment the shoe was on the other foot, your reaction might be similar.

      Curious what average OPEX would be for a shale gas well in Texas (Permian, Eagle Ford, Haynesville or what ever you might be familiar with. Is it true that such wells rarely require downhole pumps? I would think they might be needed for water or other liquids, but I am not knowledgable on the real world oil and gas field. Also wondering what royalty and severance tax payments might be, I use 28% for royalties and taxes combined for the Permian Basin, is this number very different for shale gas?

      I agree not much if any money is made in tight oil and shale gas plays at $60/bo and $3/MCF or less. I also agree exporting scarce resources such as oil and/or natural gas is not smart. This is a decision US citizens will regret within 5 years.

      Mike I do read oilystuff, but you have blocked me from commenting. Great post by Mike at link below (but they are all very good).

      https://www.oilystuff.com/forumstuff/forum-stuff/how-bad-is-it-at-62-wti-nymex

   8. Mike

      08/14/2025

      Dennis, actually I would not, no. Those are hollow threats that will never actually occur. I just came back from 10 days in Quebec and most Canadians do not feel threatened by that at all. They laugh at it. Whatever, angry politics is y’alls deal. Most people actually in the oil business don’t want to discuss that sort of thing so you should not expect much participation from them.

      Severance tax on gas in Texas is 7.5% and property taxes are about 4%. Tight oil wells with high initial GOR can be classified as gas wells and are subject to tight gas tax credits. Royalty in the Permian is all over the map. 22.5% is what I use based on mineral owners I know and research that can be done in courthouse records via the internet. BLM land in New Mexico ranges from 1/8th to 3/16ths royalty burdens but can be burdened by overriding royalty from flippers, landmen, brokerage houses, etc.

      Thanks for the compliment. I appreciate it very much. Where the money comes henceforth is the key to the future of tight oil production.

   9. DC

      08/14/2025

      Mike,

      After I made the comment I noticed some Canadians over at OSB seem unconcerned. I often watch hockey and Canadians generally seem unhappy with Trump (booing the US National Anthem at NHL games), though maybe in Alberta he is loved. I know there were a lot fewer visitors at Acadia National Park recently when I visited with guests from other States, many Canadians have stopped coming to the US for tourism.

      I tend to agree politics should not be central to this blog, though I have noticed that Trump and his policies does come up at your blog as well.

      Wondering if you think I am very far from the mark on US natural Gas.

   10. Ron Patterson

       08/14/2025

       Dennis wrote: I tend to agree politics should not be central to this blog,…

       Of course not. Oil is central to this blog. And I don’t blame Republicans for not wanting to talk about politics right now. If I were a Republican I would be also ashamed of that asshole Trump. But politics is going to be central to everyone’s life for the next decade. Trump is ruining the economy of this country. He is and he is an idiot. He recently said: Money is going to be pouring into this country from the tariffs… A fifth grader knows better than that. Tariffs are a tax paid by the consumer who buys an imported product. And that tax falls distortional on the poor and middle class.

       Crops are rotting in the fields because of a lack of pickers. Corn farmers are going broke because other nations are boycotting us farm products. And Trump don’t give a damn. Don’t expect a recession because of dumbass Trump, expect a depression.

       I apologize for the rant but when I heard on the news this morning that Trump is going to examine the policies of the Smithsonian, apparently he don’t like the way they are presenting the history of this country, that just set me off. I am still in recovery from that.

   11. T HILL

       08/14/2025

       “Those are just hollow threats that will never actually occur”.

       History is replete with examples as bad or worse than this particular threat. Let’s take as a case in point the fact that there is, yet again, a large-scale land war in Europe. One that has more than a few impacts on the energy sector. Geopolitics and elections certainly influence oil, gas & energy in general.

   12. Huntingtonbeach

       08/14/2025

       Ron, good to hear from you. Hope you’re doing well. Stay strong

       I think I have a little different view than yourself. I put a very high probability that the United States is not so united and we are on track for a great depression, dictatorship and civil war. I would prefer to see a depression in the hope’s MAGA pulls their heads out because of it’s own pain and ignorance. More likely those in the middle who don’t pay much attention will be done with the Trump depression economics.

       So I think a Great Depression is pretty much our best opinion. I know others that feel the same way. I’ve been trying to prepare all year(food, cash, medicine, maintence, clothes, etc). Once the stock market collapses. Trump will be a deer in the headlight. He doesn’t have the creditability to do anything about it. It won’t be a recovery of the likes after 2008. I’ll take a depression over a dictatorship or civil war.

       Bring it on

       Remind me again, when was the last time a Republican president left office and the country wasn’t left in a recession ?

       *******

       Trump Is Selling Out Ukraine To Putin

       The Warning with Steve Schmidt

       https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjZOGepTEWw

       ***

       “Those are just hollow threats that will never actually occur”

       Agree with you T Hill, just another sign of ignorance. Even if it’s some kind of 6th grade code.

       “Loose lips sink ships”

   13. Survivalist

       08/15/2025

       I live close to Idaho-BC border. Most Canadians I come across think USA is a nation of stupid fat fucks. They don’t fear our army, or the threat of being invaded by it. Canadian Army killed more Taliban in first 6 months of War in Afghanistan than everyone else put together in first 6 years. We’re a joke to them. You can pretend that they think your cool if you like.

   14. Iron Mike

       08/15/2025

       HB,

       Just an FYI.

       A depression would never be allowed to happen as policies like infinite money printing and helicopter drops of money will prevent any recession or depression from taking a strong hold for any extended period of time.

   15. Huntingtonbeach

       08/15/2025

       Iron Mike,

       I just heard the same thing from someone else less than 2 weeks ago and it has worked in the past. But first of all, there is no such thing as infinite money. That’s just toilet paper. Second, you can pour endless amounts of gasoline into an engine with a broken timing chain and it’s not going to run. Third, Trump is destroying 80 year old relationships that has made it an empire and America was already on the back side of it’s glory days. The U.S. can’t even build cars and trucks without imports. Fourth, the American people are entitled, lazy with no attention span and most not very well educated. We can’t produce all of what we demand. Trump is removing the people in the country that do the manual labor. The collapse of the dollar will be the nail in it’s coffin. The American people are going to find out how the rest of the world lives. United we stand, divided we fall. It’s going to be a long road to try to stay afloat. The reset is coming.

       Never say never, hopefully your right. Thanks

   16. DC

       08/15/2025

       Mike,

       Thank you for the information on royalties and taxes in Texas. I was not aware of the tight gas tax credits in Texas.

   17. Westexasfanclub

       08/14/2025

       Mike, your rant against Ovi – someone who puts so much work in this site – was unnecessary. POB is one of the most polite sites I know, everybody here avoids cheap political confrontations. On the other hand PO is a broad phenomenon with many implications in social, technological, political and economical areas. No one is so much in the knowing that he can cover all of them – so we have to learn from each other.
       The rest of your post was very appreciated.

   18. Mike

       08/14/2025

       West Texas, I enjoy Ovi’s work. You have to be joking about civility and the avoidance of cheap political confrontations, yes? I suggest you read the ensuing responses to my comments and wait for the others forthcoming.

       As to ‘learning from each other’ I believe, here, that political beliefs override all else. Mine are detested, clearly, and not welcome.

       All well and good, just don’t expect a lot of Texas oilmen to participate in the debates and try and help. Sort of limiting in a discussion of our oil future, don’t you think? Otherwise, thank you.

       Look, I have made a mistake. I want no part of all this anger.

   19. maildog

       08/15/2025

       West Tex says: “Everybody here avoids cheap political confrontations.”
       From Ron, above: “If I were a Republican I would be also ashamed of that asshole Trump.”
       So much for your bullshit Tex!

   20. shallow sand

       08/18/2025

       Mike. I read your recent posts on oilystuff. I agree with them.

       I was talking to a friend on mine the past weekend who owns both a service company and an oil production company. He sees prices getting into the high $40’s. Who knows. But that will be bad for us no doubt.

       Although I know you don’t like talking politics, I think it’s inevitable that you have to look at politics when discussing oil and oil prices. The President has mentioned them quite often.

       We did poorly during Trump 1. The Trump 2 campaign included sub $50 oil price talk. After 2023 and 2024 of relatively stable prices in the $70’s, we are heading lower. It’s costing me personally in the six figures annually.

       Now on grain farming, it’s the same. But there, the Trump Administration pays out big subsidies. We received a very large payment in March. Just received another this month, and it appears more is on the way.

       I’m not advocating for taxpayer funded handouts for upstream oil. I’m merely mentioning the only reason Trump hasn’t lost the farm vote.

       Trump has scrapped methane emissions rules, so not all negative regarding us. But I suspect he’s went too far, just as the left went too far in the opposite direction.

       I find the candidates I prefer for President poll 1% or less in the primaries. So that’s about how happy I am with current politics.

       I wholeheartedly agree with you that civil discussion of politics is about extinct. The idiots who shoot their mouths off drown out everyone else.

       Heck, that can be seen here on this board, despite it being moderated by Dennis and Ovi, who are as civil as they come.

       I’m sorry I haven’t been visiting oilystuff as much, I’ll do that more often. I admittedly haven’t been here as much either. I kind of try to forget about oil, it’s the worst performer since 2014, absent 2022-24.

   21. Nick G

       08/18/2025

       SS,

       You said “I find the candidates I prefer for President poll 1% or less in the primaries.”

       As far as I can tell, the primary system is disastrous. It produces candidates that most people don’t like. I think that a big improvement would be to eliminate primaries and use the ranked choice voting system they have in Alaska.

       https://www.elections.alaska.gov/election-information/#RankedChoice

   22. LTO Survivor

       08/19/2025

       I am back Mike. As an Operator, investor and producer, I always enjoy your posts. I am drilling mostly in East Texas and hoping to catch the LNG wave and data center demand but man nat gas prices suck.

   23. Mike Shellman

       08/19/2025

       I hope you are well, sir; thank you for the nice words. I wish you the very best of luck.

   24. DC

       08/19/2025

       LTO Survivor,

       Best of luck to you, hope you are doing well.

   25. Coffeeguyzz

       08/20/2025

       LTO Survivor,
       Nice to see you post and best wishes to you.
       You may very well benefit from current trends (focusing on natgas) as next calendar year, EIA expects average HH of $4.30/mmbtu with December pricing possibly hitting $5.40.
       Longer term (say, ~2030), the LNG requirements should roughly double from today’s ~16 Bcfd to over 30 Bcfd.

       Re data center power burn demand, outfit called Global Energy Monitor sez right now the generation capacity in the development phase has jumped 6 fold from last year to almost 100 Gw. Combined with the under-development projects of 16 Gw capacity, total increase in natgas demand for these operations could approach 20 Bcfd in the coming years.

       Should depressed oil prices stifle associated gas production, the ‘pure’ gas producers stand to benefit significantly.

       As stated several times, Age of Gas is nigh.

       Good luck.

   26. Longtimber

       08/20/2025

       Geopolitical distortions … factor impacting shale ROI/ breakeven?
       ProRussian propaganda or reality?> “Russia & Saudi Arabia Set to CRUSH U.S. Shale Industry!”
       https://youtu.be/MtaptZ9kj7M
       Sanctions blowback? Keep some US “Oil” in the ground for now?

   27. Peaker

       08/16/2025

       I got to say thank-you to West Texas as a long-time follower of things Oil Drum. Since the first revelations early this century I have expected that things political would be explained in terms of Peak Oil, at least in the community itself….but no! Not one of the many pundits who have acheived some notoriety have done this, not to my knowledge. Ukraine being a fine example but there are countless others.

   28. Anonymous

       08/17/2025

       I’m old enough to remember the last time peak oilers said we were on a bumpy plateau, which was supposed to be a sign of the end. And it was a ~10 MM bopd lower, than it is right now.

       http://theoildrum.com/node/3660

   29. D C

       08/18/2025

       Deduct tight oil and World output remains on that bumpy plateau. Not many foresaw tight oil at 9 Mbpd in 2007.

   30. DC

       08/18/2025

       World C plus C minus tight oil

   31. Ron Patterson

       08/18/2025

       Thanks Dennis, that chart tells everything.

   32. DC

       08/18/2025

       Centered 12 month average (CTMA) for World C plus C minus tight oil

   33. Ovi

       08/13/2025

       Kangeo

       Thanks. Much appreciated.

       Luckily, we won’t have to wait too long to find out if the World will have a new peak in December. Interestingly the US is also supposed to peak in December. What we are witnessing is an OPEC ordered production march. It is not a demand driven march.

       We will be able to watch this peak develop through the OPEC MOMR since the targets are set for September and they are the final ones. The two big horses to watch are SA and the UAE. SA will have to pump 10,000 kb/d in September and then keep it at that level. That may be difficult with Ghawar watering out.

       Iraq seems to be on a steady decline according to Dennis’ OPEC charts for June. Not clear if this trend will continue but it could. I foresee some problems going forward with OPEC and US production.

       The big unknown for me in the acceleration of the OPEC + targets to earlier dates is whether some of it is intended to drive the price of oil down so Russia has less revenue to pursue its ambitions in the Ukraine.

       Over the next 5 months we will watch this scenario develop. The August targets are attached.

   34. Laurie Meadows

       08/15/2025

       Back in 2007 or so, in Oil Drum days, there was concern with Ghawar watering out.

       In 2002 they found unusual water and oil movements had occurred over time and a tilted field with complex water/oil contacts and dynamics along the ~ north south axis.

       https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gpl/geoarabia/article/8/1/9/566879/Tilted-original-oil-water-contact-in-the-Arab-D

       What is the state 23 years on?

   35. Matt Mushalik

       08/15/2025

       Thew last time I looked at Ghawar:

       1/10/2019
       The Attacks on Abqaiq and Peak Oil in Ghawar
       http://crudeoilpeak.info/the-attacks-on-abqaiq-and-peak-oil-in-ghawar

   36. Iver

       08/15/2025

       So Jean thinks Saudi Arabia may be producing 7.5 or maybe 10.5mb/d in 2030.

       That is hardly groundbreaking,

   37. Anonymous

       08/17/2025

       Laurie:

       Here was James Hamilton, tenured saltwater econ prof, sounding the alarm about Staniford water worries in 2007:

       https://econbrowser.com/archives/2007/05/northern_ghawar

       ‘If you end up being surprised by the big story of the next decade, you can’t say, “nobody told us.” Instead you’ll have to say, “we didn’t listen.”’

       Well…unless he misspelled “shale” as “Ghawar”, then I think his story we needed to listen to…was one we shouldn’t have bothered with.

       SA pumped more oil this year than it did in 2007. That is almost 20 years after Staniford’s water worries and literally 20 years after the Simmons silliness from 2005. Far from some crisis of production from SA with its fake reserves and all that…we’ve had the last 20 years of humming along normally. I mean…maybe they will run out in 60 years instead of 100, if the reserve worriers are right. (And I ain’t saying they are right.) But it’s nothing to affect current economics and lifestyle. Shutter the doomstead. Invest in grandchildren.

       Bottom line is either the Ghawar decline worries were overdramatic or SA easily brought on other fields (meaning Ghawar was less critical). But SA is pumping, pumping, pumping.

       https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9EcjWd-O4jI

3. DC

   08/13/2025

   From this month’s STEO:

   U.S. crude oil production. We expect increases in well productivity will push U.S. crude oil
   production to an all-time high near 13.6 million b/d in December 2025. However, as crude oil
   prices fall, we expect U.S. producers will accelerate the decreases in drilling and well completion
   activity that have been ongoing through most of this year, and we forecast U.S. crude oil
   production will decline to 13.1 million b/d by 4Q26. On an annual basis, we now forecast crude
   oil production will average 13.4 million b/d in 2025 and 13.3 million b/d in 2026.

   See page 3 at link below.

   https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf

4. DC

   08/13/2025

   US tight oil and centered 12 month average from

   https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/xls/Fig42.xlsx

5. Ron Patterson

   08/14/2025

   A MUST READ This article from Energy and Capital was in my email in box. I could not find it on the web so I am posting the entire article below. Sorry to take up so much space but it is that important. Or I believe it is.

   Energy and Capital: The Oil Illusion Moving Markets Keith Kohl
   In World War II, a British magician named Jasper Maskelyne allegedly pulled off one of the greatest illusions in modern military history.
   They said he made the Suez Canal disappear.
   Using lights, mirrors, and a little psychological sleight of hand, he tricked enemy pilots into bombing the wrong targets. Entire cities were camouflaged. Battleships were “cloned” with plywood. He didn’t just fool the eye — he rewired perception.
   The illusion became stronger than reality.
   Now, that same trick is being played out again right before our very eyes.
   Only this time, it’s not German bombers flying overhead. It’s Wall Street. And the illusionists aren’t stage magicians — they’re blind, number-crunching desk jockeys.
   The IEA and EIA, two of the most closely watched institutions in the energy world, just dropped their latest monthly outlooks… and the sleight of hand they’re pulling off for this oil mirage is nothing short of spectacular.
   In May alone, global central banks increased their gold holdings by nearly 10% year-over-year.
   Turkey, India, Kazakhstan, Poland, Singapore — all are quietly hoarding bullion like squirrels before winter. And according to the World Gold Council, central banks are projected to buy even more gold over the next five years… while simultaneously reducing their exposure to the U.S. dollar.
   This isn’t speculation.
   It’s a coordinated exit.
   You don’t make these kinds of moves unless you know what’s coming. And if you think they’re doing it for fun — or for jewelry — you’re missing the big picture.
   Just imagine owning gold the same way that central banks do — but without the baggage?
   The IEA, ever the bearer of bearish gospel, forecast a growing oil glut heading into 2026.
   Their model now shows global inventories swelling by nearly 3 million barrels per day — an oversupply so large it would crush prices and vaporize any hope of tightness in the physical market.
   Of course, swelling inventories and a mind-boggling prediction of U.S. output rising to 13.6 million barrels per day — despite the fact that drilling activity continues to lag — will cause WTI prices to fall to $58 per barrel during the fourth quarter of 2025.
   As if that weren’t enough of an act, the EIA’s encore cut its 2026 price forecast for Brent down to $51 per barrel.
   If you listen to nothing else in my crude rants, always remember that $50 oil is a myth. At that price, new exploration would shrivel up and die. Nothing seems to move the EIA data crunchers, not the falling rig count, nor the tighter capital budgets that are popping up across the sector.
   Both the EIA and IEA are also putting a lot of weight on non-OECD growth slowing, with Trump’s tariffs doing a lot of heavy lifting to bring down economic growth in China, Brazil, and India.
   But if OPEC turns out to be right on this one — and I’ll note that they’ve been much closer to reality than the other two — then everyone is in for a big surprise, especially if President Trump starts closing major trade deals like he has.
   So as always, we’re stuck in the middle of this never-ending narrative war waged between OPEC and the IEA.
   OPEC plays the optimist, and the IEA plays the undertaker.
   But here’s the problem, dear reader: The market keeps buying the excessively bearish illusion.
   And let’s not hold back any shots here: The IEA has a history of getting it wrong.
   Last May’s “bombshell” revision — where they quietly admitted to overstating inventories and missing real-world demand by a mile — should have been the wake-up call.
   Instead, the market hit snooze.
   And that’s where the opportunity lies for regular investors like us.
   It’s no coincidence that every time oil prices begin to stir, a bearish IEA report drags them back down. The market reacts, traders reprice, and the illusion gets another day to breathe.
   But just like Maskelyne’s disappearing canal, the oil market’s image has been distorted beyond recognition.
   Because on the ground, the numbers tell a different story.
   Rig counts are falling. U.S. completions are slowing. Even the most efficient producers are facing steep costs and declining tier-one acreage.
   Yes, well productivity IS STILL RISING … for now; but even that comes with a shelf life. You can’t outrun depletion forever with less exploration, and you can’t drill your way into margin while the capital dries up.
   Remember the Dallas Fed’s most recent survey? Nearly 70% of shale operators admit they’ll scale back if oil stays near $60.
   Make no mistake, they’re NOT bluffing.
   Oil at this level isn’t just cheap — it’s unsustainable.
   That’s the core of the oil illusion buried in this week’s forecasts.
   The IEA assumes the U.S. can grow without reinvesting; that Russia will keep producing at current levels under sanctions; that OPEC will sit on its hands while prices languish.
   It all hinges on non-OPEC supply growing steadily, as if cost, geology, and geopolitics aren’t real factors.
   And the EIA, for all its internal data, clings to the fantasy that productivity alone can hold production steady, even as the industry quietly sheds rigs and cancels development plans.
   Eventually, this house of cards will collapse.
   When it does, oil doesn’t trickle higher, it’ll snap. Inventories won’t swell — they’ll shrink.
   And Big Oil, which hasn’t grown production through the drillbit in years, will do what it’s always done when faced with a growth issue — they’ll pop open their war chests and M&A activity will surge.
   Exxon doesn’t grow through the drillbit. It’ll buy the barrels it needs, just like it did when it shelled out $60 billion for Pioneer Natural Resources.
   That’s when the spotlight will suddenly turn toward the drillers that no one’s watching right now.
   The ones still growing output efficiently while maintaining fiscal discipline. Those are the oil players getting more from each well, not by magic, but through better geology, better tech, and better discipline.
   That’s where OUR leverage lies.
   Except, these companies won’t stay hidden for long.
   When the illusion fails and crude reclaims $80, $90, even $100, they’ll be first in line for revaluation. Not because they changed — but because the market finally caught up to where the fundamentals always were.
   And when the illusion finally vanishes, and oil’s true tightness is revealed, these names won’t just rise — they’ll roar.

   1. Westexasfanclub

      08/14/2025

      Ron, this looks to me like another nail in the coffin of the cornucopian oil saga. With the US at peak, the whole world has reached a plateau and not even all the money one can imagine will bring back any significant production growth. Once this reality will trickle down to the MSM and markets, all hell will break loose. I just wish Dennis is right and we still have a couple of years till this is going to happen. But my guts are telling me another story.

   2. THOMPSON

      08/14/2025

      I thought the coffin closed in 2007 myself. What’s occurred since is akin to the South African Apartheid experiment of coal-to-liquid. It’s doable, but what a cost! Leaves little to run society like in the heydays of the 20th century. And that’s why the Bridges and roads and all else is crumbling.

   3. Klim

      08/14/2025

      Thompson,
      You are so damn right!!!
      And the trickle-down effect is no longer part of the Dream.

   4. Alimbiquated

      08/14/2025

      It’s just hard to see where new demand is going to come from. All the increase in demand for oil since 2000 has come from China, but China has now joined the club of developed countries with declining demand for oil.

      The only counterargument seems to be vague hand waving about “third world countries that want to be like America” or something. Where is the new demand supposed to come from?

   5. THOMPSON

      08/15/2025

      @ $40 bbl I imagine there would be lots of demand, but 70 seems to be the stagnant point, 80 the unwind point. Oddly enough the monetary inflation that has pushed prices of all else up hasn’t seemed to have effected this range. Either your economy -the people- can afford it or they can’t. Indian demand is strong for Russian oil, when it’s landed for under $60.

   6. Iron Mike

      08/15/2025

      Alim,

      I agree and remained puzzled as to where the demand might come from.

      However the worlds current demand for liquid fuels is in excess of 100 MMbbl/day. If there is a supply shock due to shale oil peak in the U.S which tend to have a greater decline rate than legacy fields, we might see a supply shock as U.S is the no.1 producer of oil at the moment if I am not mistaken, or at
      least in the top 3.

      If this event was to come to fruition, Trump would have a hissy fit, and will begin to fire people beginning with his energy advisor lol

   7. Ovi

      08/15/2025

      Alim

      The first table at the top of this post ranks World oil producing countries by production.

   8. Ron Patterson

      08/15/2025

      Ali, the problem will not be demand, it will be supply.The author of that article was not anticipating new demand, his concern is falling supply.

   9. Christopher Martenson

      08/15/2025

      “China has now joined the club of developed countries with declining demand for oil.”

      Not quite yet. According to even the ultra oil bearish, ever-hopeful-for-a-demand-peak, IEA, China’s oil demand is set to peak in 2027. We’ll see about that.

      Meanwhile, according to S&P Global, India’s oil demand is set to merrily chug along higher (from ~6 to ~8+ mb/d) until at least 2040, where their analysis stopped.

      There are ~6 billion people on this planet who would like to move from scooters to cars, but who cannot afford a pricy EV option, and who may even lack access to the proper electrical infrastructure to do so.

      In all my years of watching oil markets closely, the only things that have ever dented oil consumption growth were nasty recessions and Covid.

   10. Alimbiquated

       08/15/2025

       There are ~6 billion people on this planet who would like to move from scooters to cars
       This is exactly what I meant when I said this:
       vague hand waving about “third world countries that want to be like America” or something.

       There is simply no way to oversaturate dense Asian cities with cars the way the US is oversaturated. The US bulldozed its cities for cars, but it is not an example that many will follow.

       a pricy EV option

       Geely Geome Xingyuan and BYD Seagull, the two best selling cars in China, are both EVs and cost about $10 000.

   11. Nick G

       08/15/2025

       Not to mention low-cost electric scooters, which are selling in the neighborhood of 100 million units per year and growing fast.

       https://www.kamaxgroup.com/news/industry-news/the-surge-in-electric-scooter-sales-whats-driving-the-market-boom

       They don’t even need charging stations – they just go to a local guy who charges their battery. Cheaper than fuel, and when you’re driving a scooter in Nigeria, that’s important.

       “Compared to cars and motorcycles, electric scooters are significantly less expensive to purchase and maintain. With prices ranging from $300 to $1,500, depending on the model and features, scooters offer a budget-friendly alternative for those seeking personal transportation. Additionally, the cost of operation is minimal, as electricity is far cheaper than gasoline, and maintenance requirements are low due to fewer moving parts.

       In developing economies, where the cost of owning a car can be prohibitive, electric scooters provide an accessible means of transportation, contributing to their rapid adoption in these regions.”

       That allows you to save a little money and buy a 12W solar panel and home battery – very small and very cheap, and now you’re electrified! Your children can do their homework under a 1 watt LED, you can watch a tiny TV, etc., etc. As you get a little more money you can expand your panels…

   12. THOMPSON

       08/15/2025

       Alimbiquated
       I doubt 6 billion are on scooters. China has only about 50 million on the road. I’ll wager though there are 2 billion on foot and public transport who’d love to own a scooter. They never will, nor a car.

   13. Iver

       08/16/2025

       Alim

       Do you know how many cars were sold in India in 1990?

       While sale in U.S. have not changed much in India they have grown 2000%

       98% of cars sold in India today are petrol or diesel. India’s truck fleet is also growing at a pace, that is why India’s oil demand is growing.

       Have a look at how many airports have and are being built.

       https://infra.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/aviation/india-aims-for-50-airport-development-projects-over-next-5-years/120340520

       https://www.magicbricks.com/blog/new-airports/131911.html

       There are 1.4 billion people in India and they are becoming oil consumers at a nice rate.

   14. Alimbiquated

       08/16/2025

       Good point about India, and it is one of the world’s leading car manufacturers.

       But keep in mind that China produces as many cars as the next four countries put together, and China is going all in on EVs.

       https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_motor_vehicle_production#List

   15. DC

       08/16/2025

       Also keep in mind that oil is more expensive than electricity for cars and Chinese EVs can be exported to India with a much lower total cost of ownership, or Indian Companies may start producing EVs.

       Here is recent news on China’s car market

       https://www.euronews.com/business/2025/08/14/chinese-new-car-sales-on-track-to-return-to-2023-growth-levels-as-nev-sales-continue-to-ri

   16. SRSrocco

       08/17/2025

       Ron Patterson,

       You notice the author of that article brought up the “TABOO” word called… GOLD in the article.

       Why bring up Gold? Because… “ENERGY IS THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE ECONOMY & ASSET VALUES.” That’s why.

       The Global Financial System uses Collateral as a foundation for all the Paper Finance and Debt Leverage in the system. Currently, the U.S. Treasury is the Foundation of Collateral in the Global Financial System. However, the 2016 BIS Paper discussed the COLLATERAL TRAP, characterized by too much financial leverage and insufficient good collateral.

       BIS PAPER: https://www.bis.org/publ/work565.htm

       As I have mentioned several times, if YOU or I go to a bank and want to get a $500,000 loan and the banker asks us what kind of Collateral we will use to back that loan, and we say, our $500,000 Home Mortgage, the Banker will laugh us right out of the bank.

       However, U.S. Treasuries are debt and are printed into existence, which again, is the foundation for collateral for the entire Global Financial System. What happens when U.S. Shale and Global Oil production peaks and declines? U.S. Treasuries as the Collateral for the Global Financial System will get into serious trouble.

       So, what will become Better High-Quality Collateral in the future? Gold and Silver. Why? Because the cost to produce Gold Collateral (mine supply) is about 80% and the cost for Silver Collateral is 85 %. Thus, the Energy in all forms and stages is what gives COLLATERAL its value.

       With the U.S. Govt printing U.S. Treasuries for virtually NOTHING, no ENERGY COST whatsoever, the entire Global Financial System will experience a RESET.

       It’s just a matter of time as the world hits Peak Oil.

       steve

   17. Anonymous

       08/17/2025

       Ah…the goldbugs!

       P.s. Did you ever update your Bayesian priors for US shale gas production?

       https://peakoilbarrel.com/collapse-of-shale-gas-production-has-begun/

       “The U.S. Empire is in serious trouble as the collapse of its domestic shale gas production has begun.” -2016

       I somehow missed the article where you said, “I was wrong. Not just in the particulars, but in my methodology.”

   18. SRSrocco

       08/17/2025

       Anonymous,

       You say Gold Bugs… funny term. Gold has been the foundation of human civilization for 5,000 years.

       Gold Bug… LOL.

       What a HOOT.

       steve

   19. Nick G

       08/17/2025

       Steve,

       You didn’t answer the question.

   20. SRSrocco

       08/17/2025

       Yes, certainly got the timing wrong on that call.

       However, it doesn’t change the overall fundamentals outlined in the first article on the subject of Collateral and what provides Assets their values.

       steve

   21. Nick G

       08/17/2025

       Steve,

       The earlier post said “Without energy, the U.S. economy would grind to a halt. All the trillions of Dollars in financial assets mean nothing without oil, natural gas or coal.”

       The first sentence is correct. The second sentence implies that the only “real” energy is FF. That’s incorrect.

   22. Alimbiquated

       08/21/2025

       The idea that gold has any value beyond its fairly limited industrial use is a myth.

       To understand this, consider the myth “Jesus died for our sins”. This myth is self-sustaining, because it inspires believers to tithe — a fancy word for giving money to the people who propagate the myth.

       The idea that gold is somehow special is self-sustaining in a similar way, because it inspires people to pay high prices for gold and to hoard it, despite the limited intrinsic value of the metal itself.

       Of course worrying about the intrinsic value of things is the Marxist theory of value. In market economics we only look at the market value, and don’t care if it is myth driven. If rich tax dodgers want to spend tens of millions on a painting some crazy Dutchman slapped together in a half an hour with a putty knife, then that’s how much the painting is worth.

       The moral of the story is that anyone who owns gold has a strong incentive to propagate the myth.

   23. Nick G

       08/21/2025

       ” it inspires believers to tithe”

       But why? Because Jesus is the pathway to Heaven.

       Fear of death is very, very powerful.

   24. Huntingtonbeach

       08/21/2025

       Humans created religion for a variety of reasons, including explaining the unknown, fostering social cohesion, and providing a moral compass. Religion has been a powerful force in shaping societies and cultures throughout history, offering explanations for the world, a sense of belonging, and a framework for ethical behavior.

       Here’s a more detailed look at the reasons:

       1. Explaining the Unexplainable:
       Early humans faced many natural phenomena they couldn’t understand, like weather patterns, disease, or death. Religion offered explanations for these events, often attributing them to supernatural forces or deities. This provided a sense of order and control in a chaotic world.

       2. Social Cohesion and Morality:
       Religion can unite people through shared beliefs, rituals, and a sense of community. It provides a moral framework, establishing rules and guidelines for behavior within a society.
       This can foster cooperation, reduce conflict, and strengthen social bonds.

       3. Providing Meaning and Purpose:
       Religion can offer answers to existential questions about life, death, and the human condition. It can provide comfort and hope in the face of suffering and uncertainty. Religious beliefs can give people a sense of purpose and meaning in their lives.

       4. Social Control and Hierarchy:
       Religion can be used to reinforce social hierarchies and maintain order within a society. It can be used to justify the power of rulers or elites, and to control the behavior of the masses. Religious beliefs can be used to legitimize social norms and customs.

       5. Evolutionary Perspective:
       Some theories suggest that religion may have provided an evolutionary advantage by promoting cooperation and social cohesion within groups. This can lead to greater survival and reproductive success for individuals and their communities.

       However, other theories propose that religion may be a by-product of other cognitive and social developments.

       ******

       Why Humans Invented Religion

       https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQ7mnHpF5kA

   25. Nick G

       08/21/2025

       Yeah, that’s very good and I can’t argue with any of it. I do have two thoughts:

       1st, I think dealing with mortality is very high on the list of “answers to existential questions about life, death, and the human condition”.

       2nd, religion has a problem: it doesn’t evolve well. It has a very hard time shifting with the times and adapting to new things, like evolving science. Islam is still stuck scientifically because of a 12th century proclamation against science and math. Islamic social cohesion was a big advance in the 7th century, but now it’s preventing peace with Israel. Islam was a big advance for Arab women in the 7th century, but now….!

       Christianity is stuck in a myriad of ways. It tried to adapt to scientific developments in the US in the 1800’s, and we got fundamentalism (classic example: Christian Science – that’s a pretty obvious attempt at co-option). Christianity was an advance 2,000 years ago, but now…

       Judaism was an advance 2,500 years ago: Eye For An Eye was a big improvement over the status quo of disproportionate vengeance. Now? It’s having big problems with ultra-conservatives in Israel, getting in the way of peace and anything sensible…

   26. Nick G

       08/21/2025

       More:

       “If peace on earth is our goal, atheism might be the means to that end.

       The nonreligious are more liberal and more pacifist on most issues relating to violence: torture, the death penalty, corporal punishment, imperialism and more.

       The quiet truth behind the inescapable headlines about man’s inhumanity to man is that the world is actually becoming a more peaceful place. Deaths from war and conflict have been declining for decades – and, if current trends continue, we can make them rarer still.

       What mysterious force is sowing peace among humankind? One possible reason is that there are more atheists and nonbelievers than ever before.

       In America, millennials are the largest and least religious generation in the country’s history. The trend toward secularization in the US mirrors the movement in Europe and throughout the developed world. And poll after poll have shown that the nonreligious also lean more progressive and more pacifist on a wide variety of issues relating to violence: torture, the death penalty, corporal punishment, military adventurism and more.

       A Pew poll from 2009, well before the Senate released its devastating torture report last month, asked whether torturing suspected terrorists could be justified found that the non-religious were most opposed to torture, with a combined 55% saying that it could rarely or never be justified. Gallup has also found that people with no religious preference are less supportive of the death penalty than any group of Christians. The non-religious are also among the most likely to say the invasion of Iraq was a mistake. The religiously unaffiliated are also less likely than Christians to believe that the US is superior to all other countries in the world, a hyper-patriotic attitude that’s hardly conducive to careful reflection about the use of American military power.

       Religion’s violent tendencies also tend to be reflected in its adherents’ personal lives. The social scientists Christopher Ellison and Darren Sherkat found that conservative Protestants disproportionately support the use of corporal punishment, such as spanking or whipping, for children. The researchers speculate that this stems from theology: Christians who promote a literal interpretation of the Bible tend to believe that human nature is inherently evil, and that sin demands severe punishment. What’s more, the Bible itself (among its many other bloody verses) specifically calls for beating children in verses such as Proverbs 13:24. (By contrast, freethinkers like the famous American orator Robert Ingersoll recognized the cruelty of corporal punishment as early as 1877.)

       As long as humanity was in thrall to the violent morality of religious texts, our societies were warlike and cruel. As the American revolutionary Thomas Paine said, belief in a cruel god makes a cruel man. It’s only in the last few decades, as we’ve begun to cast these beliefs off, that we’re making real moral progress.

       The influence of the non-religious shows is also evident on an international scale. The nonprofit group Vision of Humanity publishes an annual Global Peace Index, which ranks countries on a broad spectrum of indicators, including violent crime, incarceration rates, weapon ownership, and military spending. Sociologist Phil Zuckerman summarizes their results in his new book Living the Secular Life:

       …according to their most recent rankings, among the top ten most peaceful nations on earth, all are among the least God-believing – in fact, eight of the ten are specifically among the least theistic nations on earth. Conversely, of the bottom ten – the least peaceful nations – most of them are extremely religious.
       Of course, not every atheist is peaceful and not every religious person is violent. Avowedly pacifist faiths like the Quakers or Unitarian Universalists have played an important role in peace movements and, in the other direction, there are lamentably prominent atheists like Sam Harris or the late Christopher Hitchens who’ve been entirely too cavalier about imperialism and military aggression. But in general, the trend is that, as the world becomes less religious, we can expect it to become even more peaceful.

       Many embedded links at
       https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/06/peace-on-earth-atheism

6. Pat Dell

   08/15/2025

   I’m not sure I see a supply shock as the US is a great example of ‘milking the basins’. The United States accounts for approximately 20% of global cumulative oil production, despite having less than 5% of the world’s sedimentary basins. (USGS, EIA). This suggests that either the United States has experienced exceptional geological fortune, or more plausibly, it has employed highly effective methods to maximize extraction from its resources. Thus, IF the price goes up or production goes down, then the rest of the world needs to ‘anti-up’ and duplicate the US success. Of course, that’s a big IF.

   1. Ron Patterson

      08/15/2025

      Pat, oil is a finite non-renewable resource. A supply shock is not a theory, it is an absolute certainty. It will happen. The only question is when. It could be in one year, ten years or one hundred years. No one knows exactly when but the betting is in five to ten years. But for us mere mortals, it is just a wild ass guess.

   2. Nick G

      08/15/2025

      ” A supply shock is not a theory, it is an absolute certainty.”

      Well, no. If demand falls faster than supply, then there won’t be a “shock”.

      Personally, I think a quick decline in supply would be a good thing: we need higher prices, to prevent oil wars and reduce climate change by incentivizing electrification etc., and that’s more important than the short-term effects of a supply shock.

      The annoying thing is that a carbon tax would have given us the best of both worlds: income from the tax, and reduced FF consumption. OTOH, a supply shock would benefit oil exporters and suppliers, and hurt consumers…annoying.

   3. THOMPSON

      08/15/2025

      Electrification of the automotive fleets has failed, the public has rejected them well before 10% ownership, and that’s in the rich western nations. As for mining and farming and long haul trucking, that electrification effort was stillborn. We can’t pretend any longer, we are indeed addicted to oil, and since 40% or so of the barrel is actually Gasoline, we will be till in a practical sense it’s all used up. 15 years, trillions of dollars, and all we have to show for it is a mountain of bankrupt EV producers globally and broken down charger networks that get more unreliable by the day.

      Any discussion of the future must take these facts into account. If they weren’t built by the exploitation of oil and coal I’d give them a chance, but they consume mountains of fossil fuels and always will. Dreams of powering the Global manufacturing hubs into the future with solar and wind are just that too, dreams, as they are made from fossil fuels as well. It’s easy for a well off minority of middleclass people to dream of futuristic toys but the average person just want’s to get from A to B and put food on the table.

   4. Nick G

      08/15/2025

      OMG. So much misinformation. So far off it’s not even wrong.

      I hope someone else has the patience to go around in circles with stuff like this.

   5. Huntingtonbeach

      08/15/2025

      We’re in the bottom of the first inning and the Thompson is ready to surrender

      Guaranteed to be a loser

   6. Ron Patterson

      08/15/2025

      ” A supply shock is not a theory, it is an absolute certainty.”

      Well, no. If demand falls faster than supply, then there won’t be a “shock”.

      Yeah, when pigs fly. It will be well over a decade before the motor vehicle fleet is electric. Then the demand for fossil fuel for electric generation will skyrocket. The airline fleet will NEVER run on electricity. Ships at sea will still run on bunker fuel, or diesel. Trains in the USA will take many decades to convert to electricity.

      Yes, demand will plateau, as it has right now, then will decline but decline very, very slowly. Oil supply will decline, but not slowly. It will decline much faster than demand.

   7. Nick G

      08/15/2025

      “It will be well over a decade before the motor vehicle fleet is electric.”

      The land motor vehicle industry is about 60% of oil demand. “well over a decade”? If ICE oil consumption disappeared in 15 years or even 20 that would cause a dramatic drop in overall oil consumption!

      “the demand for fossil fuel for electric generation will skyrocket.”

      Something like 90% of new electrical generation is non-FF. There is very, very little demand for new FF generation – it’s just way too expensive.

      “The airline fleet will NEVER run on electricity”

      Sure. It will have to go to other liquid fuels: synthetic diesel, methanol, ammonia, H2. The industry is committed to net-zero, but it’s pretending that biofuel will work. So, it may lag behind other things, but it’s only 2.5% of CO2 emissions.

      “Ships at sea will still run on bunker fuel, or diesel. ”

      You should look at the industry’s plans. Sure, they’ll probably lag behind the plans, but they are certainly working on realistic options. And, again, it’s only about 3% of oil consumption..

   8. Ron Patterson

      08/15/2025

      Nick, thanks for the comic relief. I need a good laugh once in a while. It makes my day.

   9. Nick G

      08/15/2025

      Ron,

      Happy to help!

   10. Iver

       08/16/2025

       Nick says. FF. There is very, very little demand for new FF generation – it’s just way too expensive.

       Ignorance is bliss

       https://globalenergymonitor.org/projects/global-coal-plant-tracker/

       Have a look at the list, China, India, Indonesia, Souh Korea.

       In one year they are adding NET as much as Europe total currently operating plants.

       Do you know how to search on the internet for facts?

   11. THOMPSON

       08/16/2025

       Pure hopium based on rosy out of date projections. America, Australia, Germany,they are all scaling back on alternate electricity generation and many never started. EV sales are back to what they were two years ago, not because of a bad economy, simply because the vast majority don’t want one. Before, when they were threatened to get one by 2030 “or else”, a lot made the transition. many of them regret it, just like Hertz did when it flushed out tens of thousands of theirs.

       Techno cornucopians will always find youtubes promising them an amazing future but they always ignore the Elephants in the room too, just like the post above by NICK G. Mining, Farming and Trucking. No Diesel mining, no metals, no ff intensive farming = a lot less food. And Long haul trucking that gets it all to where it’s needed. Perhaps we can run all the trucks on Ethanol. Anyone got an update on that miracle fuel? 20 years ago It was touted to replace Gasoline remember. Just another hyped up Dream that failed.

       All these anti-ff transitions were typically a knee-jerk reaction to oil depletion and then to AGW, they never had any sound economic basis. The solution, or outcome, is what we see already happening across much of the third and second world. Loss of access to modern transport and reliable electricity, much higher food prices. Thankfully I’m insulated from much of this, but not everyone took the peak oil message seriously, got out of debt and laid up for the future.

   12. Hideaway

       08/16/2025

       Correct Ron, it is only comic relief.
       Nick’s thinking is so one dimensional as he assumes ‘X’ can grow and grow, provided everything else remains the same. It’s the hand wave of economists to assume only one change in a system while everything else remains constant.

       It’s not how complex adaptive systems (CAS) at all operate, but sounds nice in theory.
       Does Nick ever consider that CAS are hugely inefficient in some ways while extremely efficient in others? No never.

       Ecosystems, which are CAS, have been developing and changing for billions of years on this planet, yet only utilize 1-2% of the incoming sun’s rays, with 98-99% being wasted.

       In an economists world that is highly inefficient and wasteful, yet this waste seems to be an important component of CAS.

       How many people consider that becoming more efficient will be beneficial, when in reality it leaves a CAS more fragile and prone to fast collapse?? Why? because they become too complex in the use of the maximum amount of energy possible, which leaves them vulnerable to slight changes in conditions.

       The higher the complexity of a system trying to gain maximum efficiency, the more a small reduction of energy availability will effect it with outsized outcomes.

       If we leave out ‘traditional biomass’ from our energy calculations, which has a virtually zero effect on the modern industrial system, then our modern complex civilization still relies upon fossil fuels for 100% of energy. Every energy producing machine totally relies upon fossil fuels for their existence, just as much today as 50 years ago..
       No-one is making solar panels, batteries, nuclear power plants or modern turbines using wood or dried cow dung, nor just electricity.

       Every cornucopian like Nick doesn’t understand that we live in a complex interactive system, where any major change, also changes lots of other aspects, with vast feedback loops that increase with complexity. Instead they want to change one aspect hugely and expect everything else to work normally as in business as usual, despite the world not working that way.

   13. T HILL

       08/16/2025

       Thompson

       I disagree with your characterization of ethanol. Perhaps various journalist touted ethanol as a green miracle, but anyone looking at and understanding the math would have come to a different conclusion long ago. EROI for grain based ethanol is very low. Not much above 1.0 if that. Granted though that indications are that EROI for sugarcane based ethanol is much better.

       The US produces more ethanol than the rest of the world combined. Corn based. US ethanol production is concentrated in states that have low populations and republican senators. This industry is driven by the politics and election prospects of those individuals, not a rational assessment of merit.

   14. Alimbiquated

       08/21/2025

       Thompson

       Germany [is] scaling back on alternate electricity generation

       Hmm the German government doesn’t seem to agree with that claim.

       Renewable installed capacity increased by nearly 20 gigawatts (GW) to a total of just under 190 GW [in 2024]. This represents a year-on-year increase of 12%.

       https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/SharedDocs/Pressemitteilungen/EN/2025/20250108_EE.html

       But don’t let facts get in the way of a good argument.

   15. Huntingtonbeach

       08/15/2025

       There is a shit load of waste in the system. A doubling in price of crude will change everything (supply & demand). EV’s don’t need to replace ICE in the next decade. Most likely we will still be in the plateau range 10 years from now.

       Tesla is clearly the most popular new vehicle here in the LA basin. Their everywhere.

   16. Nick G

       08/15/2025

       “Most likely we will still be in the plateau range 10 years from now.”

       Hmm. I dunno. China is by far the leader in this area, and they’re very very serious about moving away from FF. Sure, they prioritize economic growth over reducing FF, but they seem to be able to walk and chew gum.

       And they are very successful at exporting the stuff they’re doing at home. I mean, look at Pakistan!

       ” it appears the country has imported something close to 30 gigawatts worth of solar panels since 2020. In a country with a total installed grid capacity of around 45 gigawatts, that is seismic. What’s even wilder is the recent jump — from 2.9 gigawatts of imports in 2023 to 16 in 2024, with 2025 on pace to beat that. It’s still ramping up.

       And to be clear, almost none of it is utility-scale solar farms. These panels are going on roofs, barns, and irrigation canals. What has prompted this explosion of distributed solar is some combination of punishingly high prices for grid power and solar panels getting very, very, very cheap. A glut of Chinese overcapacity means that the price of panels in Pakistan has gone from 24 cents a watt to 10 cents a watt in just the past year or two. Distributed solar is breaking over Pakistan like a tidal wave, despite utilities and a grid that do not seem entirely prepared for it.”

       https://www.volts.wtf/p/pakistans-solar-boom

   17. Huntingtonbeach

       08/15/2025

       My point I was trying to make is that the oil industry can maintain supply with a little help from an increased price.

   18. Nick G

       08/15/2025

       HB,

       Sounds reasonable to me. I agree that higher prices would bring more production, and that there’s a lot of waste (which I would call “stuff with marginal value”) which higher prices would help reduce.

   19. THOMPSON

       08/16/2025

       Did you two learn nothing from 2008? Or were you living at home subsidized by your parents then? Oil prices over $100 leads to the collapse of economies. Double the price to $160 and everything will grind to a halt. Unless of course you believe the standard lie, that the failure of a single hedge fund and an insurance company brought the world to it’s knees back then.

   20. Huntingtonbeach

       08/16/2025

       Thompson,

       Here are a few things I’ve learned from 2008. First, drama Queens like yourself are a dime a dozen. You digest a few facts and make assumptions. Then you proceed to get it wrong and make an ass of yourself.

       Second, my formal education in economics got it right. There are substitute goods for gasoline and oil products. Also, their are those in the oil industry for profit reasons that don’t want the public like yourself to understand this simple fact. Here I will let my alternative friend AI explain it to you-

       “In economics, substitute goods are products or services that can be used interchangeably by consumers to satisfy the same need or want.

       Here’s a closer look:

       Basic Definition: A substitute good is one that a consumer can choose instead of another, often due to changes in price or availability. For instance, if the price of Coca-Cola increases, consumers might switch to Pepsi as a substitute.

       Impact on Demand: When the price of one substitute good rises, the demand for the other substitute good increases, as consumers opt for the relatively cheaper alternative. Conversely, if the price of one good decreases, the demand for its substitute may also decrease. This is reflected in a positive cross-price elasticity of demand between substitutes.

       Creating Competition: Substitutes play a vital role in fostering competition within a marketplace. The availability of alternatives forces businesses to be mindful of pricing and quality, as consumers can easily switch if a competitor offers a better deal.

       Perfect vs. Imperfect Substitutes:

       Perfect substitutes are identical goods that consumers can switch between without any perceived difference in utility or satisfaction. An example might be butter from two different producers.

       Imperfect substitutes are similar but not identical. Consumers may have preferences or perceive differences that impact their willingness to switch even with price changes. For instance, a person might prefer Coca-Cola over Pepsi, even if Pepsi is cheaper.

       Real-World Examples:

       Beverages: Tea and coffee, Coca-Cola and Pepsi
       Transportation: Cars and bicycles (though imperfect substitutes), gasoline from different stations
       Food: Butter and margarine, apples and oranges
       Technology: iPhones and Android phones
       Services: Different ride-sharing apps, satellite and cable television services

       In essence, economic substitutes empower consumers by expanding their choices and encouraging competitive pricing within industries.”

       Drama Queen, did you catch the part about competition? Again, “Substitutes play a vital role in fostering competition within a marketplace.” This is the part the oil industry doesn’t want those like yourself to understand. Here, my friend AI would like to continue for you-

       “Substitutes, potential returns, profits and competition

       Substitutes limit an industry’s potential returns by placing a ceiling on the prices that firms within that industry can charge to make a profit. As the price-performance alternative offered by substitutes becomes more attractive, it becomes even more difficult for those firms to make a profit. Demand for substitutes can also reduce the demand for industry products and services. Substitutes can create intense competition during normal economic times, and reduce potential profit increases during positive economic times.”

       Queen Drama, I have purchased 8 brand new ICE vehicles over my lifetime. Starting at the age of 18. My current XT5 at 9 years and 80,000 miles will be my last ICE. My next vehicle will be an EV. I have my eye on the Vistiq. BTW, I’ll be paying cash for it. My biggest resistance to purchasing it now is that I don’t want to help Trump stimulate the economy. I call it tuff love for democracy. Been debt free since 2000. When I paid off my home early of now 42 years. Not going anywhere, this is the best climate and lifestyle in the world. Bar none, of course unless you live in Fredonia Tx, love Cheeseburgers and boredom.

       One more thing, the reason people move from California to Texas is because they can’t afford the good life. I mean really, how long can someone stare at a jack pump going up and down? Until death do they part for some I guess. I have come to the conclusion that jack pumps even steal a person sense of humor. What’s not funny is Texas law makers even wants to know what’s goes on in the female uterus. And if you don’t subscribe to their wishes, they will put her and her doctor in jail. That’s not freedom, it’s authoritarianism.

   21. THOMPSON

       08/17/2025

       Oh, you’re an economist type huntington. Enough said. I’ll leave you to your keynesian delusions.

   22. Iver

       08/16/2025

       Ron

       Have you changed your mind on 2018 being the peak in production?

       What is causing the very low oil prices?

   23. Ron Patterson

       08/16/2025

       Iver, I have always said I could be wrong. But so far November 2018 is still the peak. As of April, 2025 we are still 1,257 barrels per day below that peak. We are on the peak plateau right now and have been since 2018.

       Prices are low because of supply and demand. Supply and demand always dictate prices. But it is a very serious mistake to think prices will be very high at the peak. No, at the time the world is producing more oil than it ever has or ever will, prices will be low. Only when production starts to fall and cannot meet demand will prices start to skyrocket.

       Peak oil will not drive-up prices. It will be only when people realize that the peak of oil
       production is in the past will prices start to rise.

   24. Iver

       08/16/2025

       Ron

       You are correct that it is a supply and demand situation. Currently the supply exceeds demand by over a million barrels per day. Therefore demand today is less than 2018, as more oil is going into storage now. So at the moment we have a demand issue not a supply issue.
       It is not a mistake to think oil prices will be high at peak. It really depends, prices may be low or substantial higher. If demand is slightly behind production and some oil goes into storage then prices will not be too high. However it is possible that demand is higher than supply for a year or so before peak. This will erode storage levels and drive prices higher.
       You are correct that once supply starts to fall then prices will really start to move.

   25. Ron Patterson

       08/16/2025

       IVER wrote: Currently the supply exceeds demand by over a million barrels per day.

       Well, if that is the case, then over a million barrels a day are being produced and not being bought. Every day those millions of barrels would have to be stored. If this has been the case for one month, then somewhere there is over 30 million barrels being stored. If it has been going on for 100 days then 100 million barrels are sitting somewhere not being bought, And that supply must keep increasing by one million barrels per day as long as this situation continues.

       No, that is not happening. Supply must always equal demand. That is what the price does. Too much supply then the price will fall until all that supply is consumed. That or producers will lower production until consumption meets supply.

       The rule is “Price is the arbitrator that makes supply equal demand.”

       The peak in world oil production will not be known until well after the fact. And, at the point where the world is producing more oil than it ever has, or ever will, that point is far more likely to reflect an oil glut than an oil shortage. That is not a certainty, but common sense should tell you that a glut in production would also mean a glut in supply.

   26. Huntingtonbeach

       08/16/2025

       In economics, the statement “supply must always equal demand” is false.

       While economic theory describes a state called market equilibrium where the quantity of a good or service supplied equals the quantity demanded at a certain price, this doesn’t mean that supply and demand are always perfectly balanced.

       In short, while the economy has mechanisms that tend to move markets towards equilibrium, it is more accurate to say that supply and demand interact and adjust dynamically, rather than always being perfectly equal at any given moment.

       Your point is made Ron, just a little clarification for those who care

   27. THOMPSON

       08/17/2025

       RON PATTERSON: Peak oil will not drive-up prices. It will be only when people realize that the peak of oil production is in the past will prices start to rise.

       Considering supply and demand, it’s obvious that ‘demand’ only comes from people with the resources/ money, to buy the supply. This is evidenced by the fact that oil use in many nations has been declining over the past decades. So if that trend continues, ie. more and more people slipping into relative poverty, then the price need never rise. Demand destruction like we saw during covid, but less aggressive, will dictate the price. Forget places like Japan or Bangladesh, currently in the US oil consumption is around 20 mbbl/day, pop, 340 million. That’s the same as it was in 2004 when pop was 292 million.

       Japan’s Oil Consumption -demand destruction-
       https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/japan/oil-consumption
       They say it’s demographics, aging population. What’s the US excuse? I don’t believe it’s ev, they are only 1.4% of all vehicles. Lots of homeless people though, and millions of poor immigrants.

   28. Ron Patterson

       08/17/2025

       Thompson, you definitely make a good point. That still does not change the fact that when oil is at its peak, no one will know that. They will just assume it will continue to rise. Only when they realize production will likely decline forever will panic, and high prices set in.

       But I have changed my outlook on the whole situation. Yes, peak oil will be a very serious matter but that is not what will cause collapse. As you said, oil is only for those who can afford it. For the vast majority of earth’s human population, food is their primair concern. And food shortage will continue to rise, as it is rising right now. Food riots, not fuel riots, will occupy the news headlines from now until,,,,,,,,

   29. Anonymous

       08/17/2025

       Ron said it was 2015 before that…and had to shift goal posts pretty quickly afterwards. When 2018 peak is in the rear view mirror, he can just revise again. So far, he’s had a lot longer run on the 2018 call (Covid and OPEC helped). But…the storm is gathering, and he’s getting closer and closer to being wrong. I would listen to Dennis on this one.

   30. THOMPSON

       08/17/2025

       RON PATTERSON
       “Only when they realize production will likely decline forever will panic, and high prices set in.”

       Well I agree, I must have missed that point in your earlier post. And not just oil, the panic will encompass anything ‘tangible’ I would expect. Look where all the world’s wealth is sequestered, houses aside. It’s all basically in digital markets. Dare I say overinflated markets, their valuations all based on a rosy future, unlimited growth. Economists don’t see it that way but that’s the dismal science after all. They are basically salesmen, there to promote happy times and keep people believing financial innovation will trump every real world problem. Behind the scenes you have these outrageous valuations for the promoted companies like Tesla and Nvidea because everyone on the planet is trying to secure their future spending money.

       When they realize that these companies’ futures are based on expanding energy usage I suspect the markets will fall, but they will probably fall precipitously in a crash before that anyway. Cycles, they are undeniable. Food, most of us ‘here’ take it for granted but it is becoming a real issue in many nations as I’m sure you’re aware. It’s interesting that even in the 1930’s depression many people in America starved, that was lack of money, there was actually mountains of food, wheat being thrown into the ocean and milk poured into trenches in an effort to keep prices from falling. I suspect that won’t happen this time.

7. Ovi

   08/15/2025

   Rig Report for the Week Ending August 15

   The rig count drop that started in early April when 450 rigs were operating held steady this week at 363. However the Permian kept shedding rigs, down 2.

   – US Hz oil rigs were unchanged at 363, down 87 since April 2024 when it reached 450 or down 20%.
   
– New Mexico rigs dropped by 1 to 81 while Texas was unchanged at 182.
   – Texas Permian dropped 1 to 148. Both Midland and Martin dropped 2 to 21 and 17 respectively. Reeves and Reagan also dropped 1 each. These four counties are in the Texas Permian.
   – In New Mexico Eddy dropped 1 to 33 while Lea was unchanged at 47. Lea has added 11 rigs over the last 9 weeks. Over the same period Eddy has dropped 10 rigs
   – Eagle Ford was unchanged at 28.
   – NG Hz rigs were flat at to 108.

8. Ovi

   08/16/2025

   Frac Spread Report for the Week Ending August 15

   The frac spread count rose by 4 to 167. It is also down 67 from one year ago and down by 48 spreads since March 28.

9. Iver

   08/17/2025

   Ron

   Every oil expert analysis says stocks are rising by over a million barrels per day, you think that is not true.

   This is a slightly older article before OPEC started to reverse all its cuts. Inventories have risen to 7.7 BILLION BARRELS

   https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/by-land-sea-rising-oil-stocks-are-bad-news-prices-bousso-2025-05-21/

   Storage rates has been increasing over the last couple of months

   https://www.kayrros.com/products-coi-for-traders/

   From link above Total global oil stocks they tracked is 5.8 billion barrels, this includes the huge strategic stocks in the U.S. in China, Saudi, Europe and every country that has some form of storage. It also includes tankers hired to store oil sometimes for months on end.

   China and others buy floating storage at the best price as they know it’s costing suppliers money to store. Over a hundred and fifty million barrels were in tankers in 2023

   https://www.thesignalgroup.com/newsroom/floating-oil-storage-trends

   1. Ron Patterson

      08/17/2025

      Iver wrote: Every oil expert analysis says stocks are rising by over a million barrels per day,

      No, Iver, every oil expert is not saying that. Your link days that demand continues to grow by one million barrels per day compared to the first quarter of last year.

      Yet, until now, no data has shown a marked drop in oil consumption. Refining profit margins are holding strong and demand continued to grow by nearly one million barrels per day (bpd) in the first quarter of 2025 compared with a year earlier, according to the International Energy Agency.

      Inventories are at 7.7 billion barrels which is still below the five-year average.

      In the IEA’s latest report published on May 15, it said that total global oil inventories rose for a second consecutive month to 7.7 billion barrels in March. While this is still below the five-year average, the direction of travel appears clear.

      Inventories wax and wane. In May, they were at 7.7 billion barrels per day, yet still below their five-year average.

   2. Iver

      08/17/2025

      Ron

      The 5 year average includes the great upheaval of Covid when the world suddenly faced a drop of up to 20 million barrels per day in consumption.

      https://www.opec.org/assets/assetdb/momr-august-2020.pdf

      What I said is global oil inventories are increasing by over 1 million barrels per day now according to various industry analysts.

      You said no way is that happening.

      https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-august-2025

      This is data from June. Up 28 million barrels for the month. Most research say July and August is higher still.
      A Recent Bloomberg article headline. “Crude oil stockpiles globally rose by about 170 million barrels in the past 100 days, according to Kayrros, which monitors inventories.”

      The reason why oil production does not equal demand is quite simple. Due to increased global tensions and attacks on shipping more countries annd industries are building or expanding their oil storage capacity. Obviously when a country or industry builds additional storage it buys the oil to fill up these new facilities.

10. Skeboo

    08/17/2025

    Discussion with a Rystad oil analyst about the ‘looming oil challenge’: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PB1ZhgCjurk&list=WL&index=3

    Rystad published recently its update on recoverable oil reserves: https://www.rystadenergy.com/news/discovered-recoverable-oil-resources-increased-by-5-billion-barrels-despite-produ

    (apologies if this was posted already)

    1. Hickory

       08/17/2025

       That is a worthy summary of the current status to digest. Thank you.

    2. Hickory

       08/17/2025

       They point out that we still have what amounts to about 1/2 of the total earth oil reserve to burn through.
       Two points on that
       -It will be more expensive oil to produce (lower EROEI) than the first 1/2. I suspect we will be limited by what we can afford to produce. More so and more so as time goes on.
       -Many places in the world are shriveling up under the escalating global warming, roughly 90% of which has happened in the ocean thus far. The cumulative combustion effects on climate will be putting a big dent into human activity before we have had time to burn all of this second 1/2 of the oil potential. Likely in a major way, such as Ron says about food production vulnerability.

    3. Anonymous

       08/17/2025

       Artem is a very thoughtful guy. I found the interviewer annoying (just the voice, mannerisms, somehow). But Artem is the bomb. Super smart Russian.

       It’s strange, but his thesis seemed to be that prices should stay moderate for next 1-5 years. But that we need more exploration/price to incentivize needed supply in the 2030s and 2040s. Especially as demand is less likely to moderate (slower “energy transition” in terms of the whole planet). He didn’t even rule out spikes to 150 or 200.

       However, when he started talking about things, he mentioned shale as a still huge wild card. A lot of supply that comes on at 80+. He even said that shale could go back to previous (I guess 1 MM bopd/year) growth at $100+. He also saw opportunity for shale in other countries, especially at high prices. All of which sort of implies that when we need it, we will explore/drill it. And that price will still have headwinds, even into the 2030s and 2040s.

11. Ovi

    08/17/2025

    Dennis

    In the Rystad article above referenced by Skeboo, the following statement is made:

    “Rystad Energy’s latest research shows the global amount of discovered, recoverable oil resources has increased by 5 billion barrels over the past year, even though 30 billion barrels were produced globally in 2024. This net increase was driven primarily by the delineation of upside potential in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta play and the Permian Delaware basin in Texas and New Mexico.”

    Do you know if the upside potential in the Permian Delaware basin is a Rystad estimate or whether the USGS has updated their Delaware recoverable oil resources?

    1. hole in head

       08/17/2025

       Another POV , Spanish use translator .
       ” Rystad Energy’s proven oil reserves are equivalent to just 14 years of production.” A thorough dissection .
       https://futurocienciaficcionymatrix.blogspot.com/2025/08/rystad-energy-las-reservas-probadas-de.html#comments

    2. DC

       08/17/2025

       Ovi,

       I do not think there have been any new USGS assessments of Permian Delaware Sub-basin, so this may be a Rystad estimate.

    3. Anonymous

       08/17/2025

       The USGS Delaware survey is getting pretty long in the tooth. It was issued in late 2018, based on a data pull from APR2018 (purchased from IHS). Presumably the wells in that data set were 2017 at youngest (given the need for some time to generate EUR projections). So a lot of 2016 and older wells in the data set.

       Note that unlike the Bakken, or perhaps the Marcellus, the Delaware USGS work is not an example of them doing two surveys several years apart and validating themselves, basically. We have yet to see if a new survey might create an upward revision.

       I’m also not crazy about the crude USGS methodology. Treating each strata as a basin sized AU. Granted, Rystad is a total black box, too. But I bet it is less of an MBA piano tuner business case (Fermi estimation). Like I bet they incorporate more areal variability, as that is basically an analytical product they sell.

    4. DC

       08/18/2025

       According to Chat GPT the only peer reviewed estimate of the Permian Basin Economically Recoverable Resources (ERR) is Saputra et al 2021.

       https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/1/43

       Their best guess is 55 Gb for Permian Basin ERR, from conclusion:

       We estimate that the total recoverable oil in the Permian tight reservoirs is 54.4–62.4 billion bbl, note that the low number leaves off the “other” area covered with the least profitable (lowest output wells), the “goat pasture” as some call it. Note also there are serious water disposal problems in the Delaware Basin that may make the 55 Gb estimate problematic.

12. Anonymous

    08/17/2025

    Current oil prices are in the low $60s, which equates to mid $40s a decade ago.

    Year Price
    2025 $62.61 (current prompt, WTI)
    2020 $50.04 (current in 2020 dollars)
    2015 $46.32 (current in 2015 dollars)
    2010 $42.31 (current in 2010 dollars)

    So…we are pretty far from sort of peak oil calamity world where there isn’t enough to go around. Prices are skyrocketing. And civilization is collapsing.

    As a consumer, I’d be happy with even lower prices. And I still sort of mentally grimace when I fill up at the pump. But realistically prices are not that bad. Peak oil hasn’t had any impact on my lifestyle.

    Why aren’t we in the sort of disaster that TODers predicted? Why are prices so reasonable? Well, either supply was more. Or demand was less.

    If you look at volume, going back to 2010 (TOD heyday), then it’s definitely a supply story. With oil production rising instead of declining. If you look at a shorter time span, say 2018 to now then I think demand is part of the story (darned Tesla drivers, but also Covid).

    1. Florian

       08/18/2025

       It’s already five year old but such a good piece of writing:

       *As We Exhaust Our Oil, It Will Get Cheaper But Less Affordable*
       https://economicsfromthetopdown.com/2020/12/03/as-we-exhaust-our-oil-it-will-get-cheaper-but-less-affordable/

    2. T HILL

       08/18/2025

       Thank you Florian. Very good.

    3. Nick G

       08/18/2025

       “Suppose we find that the price of a non-renewable resource does not grow exponentially. That would seem to falsify Hotelling’s ‘rule’. But that’s not how economists see it. Instead, they argue that since the price is not growing exponentially, the non-renewable resource is in fact not being exhausted.”

       I haven’t seen any economists make this argument. I’ve seen Hotelling’s rule discussed, but no one seems to think it’s a very strong hypothesis. Do you have a source?

       Much simpler explanations for a lack of price increase are that recovery methods have improved, or that there are substitutes for the resource.

       Simon’s argument was much simpler: that price of a resource is a meaningful indicator of scarcity. If prices never rise, the resource can’t be described as becoming scarcer.

       ————————-
       This article argues that the price of oil has not risen. On the other hand, it argues that the ratio of GDP to oil price has fallen lately. But, we know that per capita GDP has increased lately. If GDP has risen, and the oil price has not, GDP divided by oil must be increasing. So…something is wrong with his math.

       He has done a little switcheroo by charting the actual prices and not the linear price trend that he argues is the underlying reality. And, the actual prices have enough variability that it’s easy to make it look like they are increasing.

       Now, this article is bit old, and oil prices have increased even after adjustment by inflation. But..not as much as GDP.

       If he were honest he would simply calculate the US GDP/oil price on an annual basis and it would be clear it has risen over the last 50 years – you can do it with inflation adjusted numbers, or nominal current numbers: the result would be the same. You might want to do that yourself, and convince yourself of it.

    4. T HILL

       08/18/2025

       I did the math to replicate Figure 2 from the link to the article by Blair Fix, at least back to 1929.

       GDP per capital data from the St. Louis Fed.

       Oil price data from Our-World-in-Data, which in turn cites Energy Institute based on S&P Global Platts – Statistical Review of World Energy (2025).

       Mr. Fix looks correct on his math up to his data in Figure 2 at least.

    5. Nick G

       08/18/2025

       hmm. Could you copy the data into a comment? Just the numbers with 2 columns: year and GDP/capita, and year and price? I’d be curious to do the chart as well.

    6. Nick G

       08/20/2025

       Well, I got the numbers, and here’s the chart. As you can see, it’s pretty much flat. I’ll admit, that’s not what I expected – I think I wasn’t taking into account the adjustment for population increase.

       OTOH…nobody actually buys oil for direct consumption – I imagine it’s not tasty at all. No, we use it mostly for transportation, and transportation has gotten roughly twice as efficient. That means that the affordability of transportation has roughly doubled over the last 45 years, in terms of fuel per mile/Km…

    7. T HILL

       08/20/2025

       You make an interesting point about the efficiency trends of ICE in recent decades that seems to match my past understanding on this topic.

       I come to POB to learn things I might not otherwise know. Sometimes this means I dig into a topic and come away with new knowledge. Other times I dig into a topic and find a point to be mistaken, poorly made or a misrepresentation. Other times it is obvious and doesn’t require digging (e.g. climate change deniers)

       In your first post on this topic, you characterized the author of the linked post as ‘wrong with his math’ and dishonest. Both an error and misrepresentation. That author was talking about how affordability might indicate resource scarcity and plotted GDP/capital/oil price from around 1860 to the early 2020s as part of his argument. The full time horizon evaluated was key to his conclusion and argument, since the trend developed over that full time span.

       I’d never seen this referenced author before, which for me always prompts a need to judge validity. Got to keep the BS detector turned on, right? So, as I noted before, I dug up the data as far back as 1929 and found that the original author had made an accurate portrayal. Not wrong on his math or dishonest to that point. Of course, his conclusion could still be wrong but that is a separate issue.

       Your plot above appears to be limited to a point in time starting around 1980. An …. unfortunately limited selection that is missing key data from the original author.

    8. Nick G

       08/21/2025

       T Hill,

       Look closely at his Figure 2. The inflection point of the curve is about 1980, which is why I used that. His argument is that affordability started to decline around about 1980. He’s trying to use an Excel polynomial function, which is really not a rigorous approach, but if his argument holds water we should be able to see it in the 45 years of data since then. We can’t.

       His chart goes back to 1860. That’s silly. Oil was a tiny part of the economy until maybe 1910, and official data from the BLS only starts in the 1910’s. And oil was still small until after WWII, and this author is making an argument about recent history.

       Although…all of this discussion of data quality and time analysis methodology is really beside the point. The main point is that this guy is entertaining an unrealistic idea that high oil prices will crash the economy. This is based on the fact that oil shocks have helped cause recessions in the past, a fact that is obsolete for the US which is now an oil exporter. High oil prices can cause problems for importing countries – if they manage it badly it could cause unpredictable problems, if they manage it well it’s…manageable.

       PO enthusiasts have done a service by calling attention to the importance of oil issues, but…it’s really not a “Master” commodity. We run on it now, but we could operate with 75% of it in the short run if we had to, and I suspect that in 100 years people will be astonished to read in history books that we used it all.

       It’s expensive, it’s polluting, it starts oil wars…we need to kick the habit ASAP: the only barrier is political.

13. Nick G

    08/17/2025

    “darned Tesla drivers”

    Well, these days it’s more BYD drivers. A few more years of the Current Occupant holding them back, and the US car companies will have lost any chance of competing with China…

    https://www.fool.com/research/largest-ev-companies/

    “The American Car Industry Can’t Go On Like This
    Ford is taking drastic steps to compete with China’s cheap EVs. Even that might not be enough.

    Last year, Ford CEO Jim Farley commuted in a car that wasn’t made by his own company. In an effort to scope out the competition, Farley spent six months driving around in a Xiaomi SU7. The Chinese-made electric sedan is one of the world’s most impressive cars: It can accelerate faster than many Porsches, has a giant touch screen that lets you turn off the lights at your house, and comes with a built-in AI assistant—all for roughly $30,000 in China. “It’s fantastic,” Farley said about the Xiaomi SU7 on a podcast last fall. “I don’t want to give it up.”

    Farley has openly feared what might happen to Ford if more Americans can get behind the wheel of the Xiaomi SU7.”

    https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2025/08/ford-china-electric-cars/683880/

    1. Anonymous

       08/17/2025

       Hmm…can we drill enough shale gas to make the electricity? Or will it all come from rainbows and unicorn foofs. Err, solar and wind, I mean.

       There is always the “Saudi Arabia of coal” that Jimmy Carter described. But I have to wonder if e from coal is cleaner or dirtier than just using gasoline or diesel. Not even making an argument, just I honestly wonder which has larger CO2 footprint. Which has larger local air pollution footprint. Open question.

       Oops, I might have gone off topic. Not sure if this should be in the non-petroleum ghetto.

    2. Nick G

       08/17/2025

       Yep, it will mostly come from “rainbows and unicorns”.

       Seriously, solar and wind are the cheapest source of electricity in most places, even without subsidies. That’s why it’s the great majority of new generation.

       Wind and especially solar are relatively easy to scale up, quickly and in small increments as needed. The solar resource is enormous and undepletable (is that a word?).

       FWIW, EVs on coal are very slightly cleaner than ICEs on oil. The big pollution benefit comes from the fact that grid power is only 60% coal even in China, and unicorns (oops – wind & solar) are growing fast. And..EVs are synergetic with wind & solar because you can program your car to preferentially charge from cleaner sources, just like your iPhone.

       Have you looked at that feature on your iPhone? It’s under the Battery section in settings.

    3. Hideaway

       08/18/2025

       Nick G …. “Seriously, solar and wind are the cheapest source of electricity in most places, even without subsidies.”

       It seriously isn’t, as I’ve stated and proven so many times, by the simple reality of investments like the Adaro aluminium smelter being built with it’s own captive power plant. (A captive power plant for those that don’t know is one being built to power a specific purpose, in this case an aluminium smelter).

       There are no captive power plants of solar and wind with batteries being built anywhere in the world to run any heavy industry. They build captive power plants with the cheapest form of energy possible.
       No-one is even building a captive solar and wind power station WITH subsidies for a heavy industry.

       Meanwhile the countries with highest penetration of solar and wind also happen to have the highest power prices (Australia, Denmark, Germany etc) For Nick’s logic to apply they should be the cheapest power in the world not the most expensive.

       What’s the average price for electricity in Germany $US400/MWh, Denmark $US436/MWh, Australia $US300/MWh..
       Then the large coal producers have the expensive power prices like China $US70/MWh, India $US110/MWh, Indonesia $US75/MWh …

       Sorry Nick, the numbers don’t lie. Reality is a bitch, but it’s still reality.

    4. THOMPSON

       08/18/2025

       NICK:
       Ford is taking drastic steps to compete with China’s cheap EVs. Even that might not be enough.

       There are EV’s and there are gasoline powered hybrids. That is what Ford is moving into. The EV is going out the back door but they are trying to keep the brand alive lol. If a hybrid is an electric vehicle even though it burns Gas what is a Gas burner with an electric component?
       https://www.fromtheroad.ford.com/us/en/articles/2024/ford-updates-timing-for-next-gen-evs–readies-manufacturing-plan
       Ford uses the terms interchangeably, but that’s just marketing. In the real world we know what’s going on.

14. Kengeo

    08/17/2025

    14 years folks!

    From oil price dot com:

    “ Today, the world’s proven oil reserves equal only 14 years of production. If future global oil demand increases, as forecast by OPEC, supply will likely struggle to meet demand, even at attractive, high prices for producers”

    1. Anonymous

       08/17/2025

       What did they say 14 years ago? Did they say 28 years, back then? Or was it 14 years also, 14 years ago?

       For that matter, what did it say in 2000? 1980? 1950? 1900?

       P.s. Oilprice.com is a rag. You should at least link to the place they got their info from (they didn’t do a study of their own, I bet…just cited someone else.)

    2. Hideaway

       08/18/2025

       Do you know the lessons from the boy who cried wolf?? I put the peak oil forecasters in the same light..

       Eventually we will reach peak oil and of course no-one will be paying attention as most will be thinking it’s fake, just like last time..

       The moral of the boy who cried wolf story of course is to not be so dumb as to rely upon a kid to look after your future food and clothing.

       Likewise for oil. We have always known it’s a finite resource, yet it’s so useful to civilization we still totally rely upon it, because of our economic system spiral of growth in energy, population, markets, complexity, materials, food, water, requiring, more energy, population, complexity, markets, materials, food, water, in an infinite spiral that’s not possible on a finite planet, dumb, really dumb…

    3. THOMPSON

       08/18/2025

       HIDEAWAY: Eventually we will reach peak oil and of course no-one will be paying attention as most will be thinking it’s fake, just like last time

       They’ll just create another peak, we haven’t tried coal to oil yet, that might be in our future.
       But I imagine a vast market crash would take the pressure off and make limited supply irrelevant. Like a 1930’s style one, with a good war to follow it up. Death and Taxes they say are the two immutables but War is too and so are market crashes. Covid was the only news story on the idiot box until the Russians crossed the ukraine border, then Covid was entirely ignored. The media works like that.

       https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/your-weekly-reminder-markets-are

    4. Nick G

       08/17/2025

       If you quote from an online article, it’s always useful to provide the link, so readers can go there easily. As Nony said, if you can find their source so much the better.

    5. Anonymous

       08/17/2025

       I think it was actually the Rystad press release, repackaged by oilprice.com. Skeebo linked it. Just found it-has similar content, talks about 14 year inventory.

15. DC

    08/18/2025

    Another great post by Mr.Shellman, make sure to read the comments as well as there is a great deal of information in those comments as well.

    https://www.oilystuff.com/forumstuff/forum-stuff/water-in-the-permian-is-a-big-problem

    I especially liked this comment, but all of them are worth a read.

    https://www.oilystuff.com/forumstuff/main/comment/a2eeb73d-5144-4639-9130-ba45505a857d?postId=689f850decabc8455b61c9e5

16. Anonymous

    08/18/2025

    This is so amusing. The organic gardener wing of the Peak Oil movement.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gX9WGPUI-no

    And FWIW, I love veggies, fresh veggies, gardening.

    Still…this video seems so NPR Fresh Air -ish. Like something the latte-sipping, NYT Wordle-playing crowd is into.

    Lot of social positioning and political slant in the Peak Oil community. Not just hard core reservoir analysis!

    Heck…maybe I actually LIKE the “sandals” better than the “scientists”. At least they are staying in shape. And not crowding the Interwebs with pompous (failed) prognostications and line charts.

    1. THOMPSON

       08/19/2025

       That 15Yo vid is quite pretentious lol. They were very zealous back then. Today?
       Vegetables Are Up 38.9%, Coffee Up 25%, And Electricity Prices Are Rising Twice As Fast As Inflation. So there is somewhat to be said for going a little offgrid unless you have a good income or retirement savings.
       Per Bureau of Labor Statistics data, it’s also the *largest monthly* increase ever recorded in a summer month (June-August), in figures that go back to 1947.

17. DC

    08/18/2025

    Another great comment and response from Mr Shellman at link below

    https://www.oilystuff.com/forumstuff/main/comment/8dc42dcd-fe7f-489e-b607-b48bf9607713?postId=689c865846b07f3dcc10c3a6

    1. DC

       08/18/2025

       Mike’s response to the comment above here

       https://www.oilystuff.com/forumstuff/main/comment/46778c9d-a93b-4447-a892-0d868430d4da?postId=689c865846b07f3dcc10c3a6

    2. Mike Shellman

       08/18/2025

       Thank you, Dennis. Truly. My heart is in the right place, as is yours.

       Look, we’re all trying, desperately, with little available data, most of it bias as hell, to get to the truth about our real hydrocarbon future. It really doesn’t matter whether I am a Texas conservative, or you are are a Maine liberal; we are all Americans.

       All the anti-oil rhetoric from Nick G, et al., and the political bullshit from Orange County…its not the goal, right? We’re tying to see how far we can get with what we’ve got. We’re trying to get to the truth… without using the word Trump 40 times in the process. He knows less about oil and gas than anybody. Is that a big surprise to anybody? Good grief. He’s just another dumb-ass president; here today, gone in 4 years. Like all the rest.

       Nicky’s world is fake. We all need to survive, first, to get to the Matrix he envisions. Ignore him.

       I try and stay in my lane. My lane is oil and natural gas in Texas and in America.

       Annoying….your comment up-hole is not word salad, its cold slaw. It was designed to make my post elsewhere, not posted here, meaningless because you happen to not believe produced water in the Permian Basin is relevant, a sure sign that you know nothing about the oil and gas industry, how it works, its economics, nada.

       I can do “hard-core” reservoir analysis” all day long, and do, every day…you don’t read it and likely would not understand it anyway.

       Its difficult, that analysis, when the well you are analyzing is born today and 24 months later has declined 85% and already headed for hospice care, waiting to die. Allow me to do a decline curve analysis on wells that are 6 months old, then once again when they are 18 months old and… its a big difference. You like the former, not the latter, and don’t understand the difference.

       Actually, there is no such thing as reservoir analysis on tight oil wells; they are frac’ed, produce 450K BO in 15 years, make NO money at <$65 and then represent a plugging liability, along with the debt it required to drill them. Like Coca-Cola cans out of a vending machine; pretty much all the same. Their entire existence based on…debt. End of story.

       I can't help you, girl; you have to help yourself.

       Produced water in the Permian Basin is going to GET the Permian Basin, as in… put it to bed. Its a race to the bottom as to whether water gets it before lack of capital gets it.

       Your arguments, Annoying, are old, and tired. Make some new, relevant ones, or go on about your way. You whine about the analysis others make, try making your own. Or, I hear, pickle ball is nice.

       Past results are not indicative to future performance in the oilfield. Never have been.

    3. DC

       08/19/2025

       Thanks Mike,

       The produced water looks to be a big problem in the Permian Basin, it will increase costs and reduce profits especially as sweet spots get drilled up and average productivity of Permian wells per 1000 feet of lateral continues to decrease over time. Perhaps very high future oil prices could solve the problem, but higher OPEC output and potentially slower future demand growth as electric transport catches on in less developed nations may keep oil prices low (under $70/bo in 2025 $) for the next decade.

    4. DC

       08/19/2025

       Average 2020 Permian well based on Novi Labs data from April 2024, EUR is 430 kbo at 172 months when daily output reaches 15 bo/d and it is assumed that the well is shut in due to lack of profit from continuing operation. I assume terminal decline at 12.5% per year with hyperbolic decline from Month 5 to Month 108. A least squares fit on the data to an Arps hyperbolic function is used on Novilabs data from 5 to 38 months. Note that the average 2022 well EUR through 12 months looks very similar to the average 2020 well, the average 2021 well has a higher EUR due to high grading during the pandemic.

    5. Mike

       08/19/2025

       That is a good number for Midland Basin wells. Kindly take that number, multiply by $15 net back per incremental BO after all costs except debt reduction and P,A&D set aside and see how close that gets to paying off a $10-$11 MM, three casing string HZ, 20K ft. TMD wells in Martin County. Use $18-20 if you want, add gas and NGL’s; it still doesn’t work.

       Now, ask yourself where is the money going to come from below $65 WTI to maintain any sort of sustained U.S. production plateau. The answer is simple: more debt.

       Cheerleaders always ignore the entire shale phenomena would not exist but for debt.

    6. DC

       08/19/2025

       Mike,

       I agree it doesn’t work for today’s oil and gas prices.

    7. Mike

       08/19/2025

       No, it does not work at today’s prices, oil or natural gas.

       Actually, it has not “worked” for quite some time, at much higher prices. That is why the shale sector has lost $400 B, or thereabouts, and still owes plus $200 G of long term debt, just in the Permian Basin alone.

       Shale gas is just as bad; every APP Basin shale gas producer, including the biggest, EQT, went to the toilet today…and a ‘don’t buy this shit’ basis on Wall Street. EQT owes $9 B of long term debt. Does that sound like shale gas in the APP Basin is working?

       The purpose in this exercise is for private enterprise to make money producing shale oil and shale gas in our nation. It has failed at that, miserably. It is failing now; no shale oil, or shale gas well drilled in American today, at these prices, will pay back D&C costs, must less debt and P,A& D costs.

    8. Iver

       08/20/2025

       Mike OPEC cut production to support prices maybe the U.S. should have done the same. Now you have the worst of both worlds

       Low prices and forced reduction via bankruptcies

    9. shallow sand

       08/19/2025

       Lol Mike. Don’t get me started on the pickle ball players.

18. Kengeo

    08/20/2025

    Watching the idiots scatter like roaches is downright entertaining. And before your heads explode—notice I never actually said which idiots I meant…

19. Kengeo

    08/20/2025

    With limited bias, this is what AI sees in the future:

    Notes on the Two-Cycle Oil Projection Graphic
    • Conventional oil peaks ~2010 (~57 Mb/d).
    • Unconventional oil peaks ~2027 (~29 Mb/d).
    • Together, they explain the ~80–83 Mb/d plateau seen since 2015.
    • Beyond 2025, production is modeled (shaded area), not observed.
    • The curve declines gradually toward ~50 Mb/d by 2050.
    • Total recoverable oil (URR) set at 2.7 Tb.
    • Cumulative through 2024 fixed at 1.6 Tb.
    • Captures a two-peak narrative: conventional vs. unconventional eras.
    • Reproduces the current plateau better than a single logistic curve.

    Limitations / Biases:
    • Assumes smooth logistic depletion, ignoring price, policy, and shocks.
    • Aggregates shale, oil sands, and deepwater into one cycle (over-smoothing).
    • Dependent on URR assumption (2.6–2.8 Tb band).

20. Iver

    08/20/2025

    Global refinery throughput all time high for 2025

    https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-august-2025

    2018 was not the peak as several of us have said in the past.

    1. THOMPSON

       08/20/2025

       Throughput, is that how much oil is processed through refineries? I have never heard the stat, I always thought of the peak in terms of oil coming out of the ground. Peak oil production. Is it possible this new ‘peak’ could be due to a lot of oil that has been building up in storage getting flushed through the system?

    2. Iver

       08/20/2025

       Thompson

       Good observation, but I have looked at storage data. Apparently in the last 100 days 170 million barrels of crude oil has been added to storage facilities around the world.

    3. Carnot

       08/20/2025

       Throughput is the amount of crude that is expected to be processed in a specified time frame. In the case of the IEA report they are referring to a period of one year i.e. 83.6 mb/d over the year. This is not necessarily the maximum. Most refineries are operating below their maximum possible throughput for various reasons.
       Crude runs are the expected refinery crude throughput for shorter period, usually one month. The crude run rate is seasonal and can be higher or lower depending on the anticipated demand. Thus in the IEA report the crude run rate for August 85.6 mb/d is above the throughput (for 2025). Crude consumption is generally higher in the northern hemisphere summer.

    4. Iver

       08/20/2025

       Carnot

       Thanks

       Throughput in 2018 was 81.1mb/d and stock declined. So 2025 will be new high.

    5. Han Neumann

       08/20/2025

       “2018 was not the peak as several of us have said in the past”

       Iver,

       And several of us (ASPO f.e.) have written in the past that a lot of ‘produced’ oil is of lower quality (lower BTU, more contamination), apart from lower EROEI

    6. Iver

       08/21/2025

       ASPO

       Their presentations quality was as good as their analyses.

       https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEGZ6u_s-ds

       We should have peaked in 2008 or 2012 according to ASPO. That was all types of oil, not just onshore.

       https://www.researchgate.net/figure/World-oil-production-ASPO_fig3_237323890

       So they were wrong by over 20 years. The real threat facing humanity is not lack of oil. It is lack of freshwater.

       If all those scientists had put their efforts into alerting the world about water depletion they may have done some good. We can substitute oil with lng, lpg, electricity. There are no substitutes for water.

    7. Han Neumann

       08/21/2025

       “We should have peaked in 2008 or 2012 according to ASPO.”

       Iver,

       They didn’t see the fracking boom coming. Nobody did.
       From about 2018 it’s just ‘Peakoil time’. The exact numbers don’t matter, in a time with declining EROEI, etc. Low hanging fruit mostly gone.

       And yes, fresh water depletion will be a problem or is already a problem in many countries. A hotter climate making it worse.

    8. THOMPSON

       08/21/2025

       Quite Right Han Neumann. The world we live in, which is crumbling around our ears, was mostly built in the second half of the 20th century on oil with an EROEI of 50:1, 100:1 in some places. A few wind farms and solar arrays don’t stack up against something like the World’s highway systems, or the massive dams and millions of concrete bridges globally. They struggle now to just repair them.

       So what if they can extract oil equivalents from NatGas, they only use it to make plastic bags to fill the oceans. Anyone who is honest with themselves will admit that the lead up to and peak of conventional oil in 2006~8 was the only peak that mattered. The old PeakOil proponents advanced personal adaptions to our dilemma, I took those onboard and am secure. My friends that stayed with the system are now trapped back in the city watching their retirement wealth go nowhere. Sitting on piles of debt and large digital retirement accounts they are fretting the next market crash.

    9. Iver

       08/21/2025

       Thomson

       Certainly EROI is declining for all sources of energy, I have made the very same point.

       However there is not just one cause of decline. In America and Europe the main cause of decline was scum politicians and economists who bought into the lie that if you transfer manufacturing to cheaper countries then we all benefit from cheap goods.
       Fact is millions lost their jobs and we now send hundreds of billions each year to make China rich. $300 billion of European money went to China last year, petty well paid for most of the Chinese high speed rail line in one year. While we are saddled with vast unemployment benefit bills.

       https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-speed_rail_in_China

       When you add in cost of crime

       https://www.gao.gov/blog/2017/11/29/how-much-does-crime-cost

       drugs and military it is no wonder roads are falling to pieces. EROI will just speed things up. A lot.

    10. THOMPSON

        08/21/2025

        * In America and Europe the main cause of decline was scum politicians and economists *

        No IVER, that’s just a cop out. Politicians have been scum all along, it’s just that people didn’t notice, or care, as long as they were making good money and could afford anything they wanted. The points you cite, crime and military expansionism, are common when civilizations hit a brick wall as far as their resource base goes. Cheap oil lifted all boats during the 20th century and now the tide is going out, people are unhappy, they are getting poorer and the nations have been going to war to rectify this, like the invasion of the middle east over fictitious WMD. It’s what’s behind the demonetization of Russia. They has mountains of oil and gas and the West wants it. Good luck I say.

21. Iver

    08/21/2025

    ASPO prediction of all liquids, crude condensate and NGPL

    https://planetforlife.com/oilcrisis/oilpeak.html

22. Hickory

    08/21/2025

    There is a fellow who has a Ford Mach-E (electric) who has driven 252,000 miles now, yes on his original battery. He drives people around, like to the airport or to the VA cemetery.
    “After 250,000 miles, his battery is still healthy and going strong. Currently, David’s Mustang Mach-E with full charge (90% capacity) still provides around 290 miles “per tank,”
    He usually charges slow at home, with low night time electricity rates.
    You can guess he has a very low cost of transport/mile.
    Good job Ford.

    1. Hickory

       08/21/2025

       The story link from Ford-
       https://www.fromtheroad.ford.com/us/en/articles/2025/250-000-miles-and-counting-mustang-mach-e

23. sgp99

    08/21/2025

    I hate to say this guys, but…what a snoozefest. Thanks for the charts by the way, and, I do think following them is interesting.

    But it’s just so uneventful. Now, don’t get me wrong. Lots and lots of events have happened, as we know. But nothing like the apocalyptic visions of early peak oil theorists. Every big “event”…wars, financial crises, epidemics, has been successfully absorbed and dispatched by the system.

    It’s like watching someone go from 50 to 90 years old. Who even cares anymore? And when he’s 90, just pull the plug for good riddance.

    1. Ovi

       12/21/2024

       SGP99

       The focus now is on US peaking. Should happen within 3 to 6 months. Let’s see if we get this one right.

       As I have said many times, these charts are similar to watching grass grow. Shortly that grass is going to start shrinking. Keep watching.

    2. Iver

       08/22/2025

       Ovi

       At these prices The U.S. will probably peak this year, OPEC will fill any gap for a while.

       How much spare capacity do you think OPEC has at the moment?

    3. Ovi

       08/22/2025

       Iver

       Looking at Dennis’ OPEC Big 4 chart in the last OPEC update, I think they have 2.75 Mb/d of spare capacity over the next year. Looking at the attached chart I am assuming the latest production for the Big 4 will be 19.0 Mb/d and their peak will be 21.75 Mb/d.

       The biggest unknown seems to be Iraq. It has a lot of undeveloped oil fields but politics seems to be getting in the way over the near term.

    4. Iver

       08/23/2025

       Ovi

       I am glad you made the point about Iraq, it has vast reserves and could increase production by several million barrels. The likelihood of it doing that any time soon is remote. Iraq is close to being a failed state with water shortages and blackouts.

       So OPEC probably has around 3mb/d of spare capacity.

       What would be useful would be a graph with both OPEC production and non OPEC. You could see how OPEC production has fluctuated in response to non OPEC production since 2009. Have Angola, Ecuador and Qatar in non OPEC for consistency.

    5. gerry maddoux

       08/22/2025

       Ovi–

       Without being critical, I “get” the poster’s complaint about snoozing. There are slews of well constructed graphs and charts, followed momentarily by constructive commentary. Then this site devolves into a drunken brawl, periodically taken over by this crazy Anonymous, whoever the hell he or she is (Don’t look at me, it was MS who said, hilariously, “I can’t help you, girl, you have to help yourself”). After that the poster from Orange County comes on and intellectually refers to “Jack Pumps” not once but twice, as if he knows what he’s talking about.

       Just a thought: you might want to tell the “Canadian Story.” After all, when the U.S. shale is done, Siberian oil has sunk into the permafrost, the RFE (Sakhalin Island) has faltered, and connate water has destroyed the integrity of Ghawar production, it will be Canada holding the tail-end of the world’s oil reserves in its Athabaskan Oil Sands. It strikes me that this is something that a Canadian might want to highlight, esp. when so much is (about to be) written about peak oil.

       This is like a dormant volcano coming to life. As I understand it, the oil sands lie atop a slab of limestone, and are there for the taking–the chances of “hitting oil” are 100% as long as you stay sober. So much ink is being wasted on “The Permian,” when in the final analysis it’s likely to be Canada holding the jewel.

    6. Huntingtonbeach

       08/22/2025

       “Without being critical”

       Bloggers use anonymity to protect their safety and career, maintain privacy by separating their online identity from their personal and professional lives, and freely express opinions on sensitive or controversial topics without fear of judgment or social backlash. Anonymity can provide the freedom to be honest and experimental with their content, or to share personal experiences without concern for how friends, family, or colleagues might react.

       Privacy and Safety
       Protection from Retaliation:
       Bloggers may face dangerous situations, such as physical threats or job loss, for expressing unpopular or controversial views, making anonymity a vital safety measure.

       Personal Information Security:
       Some topics, like health conditions or past personal experiences, are sensitive, and bloggers want to avoid exposing that information to potential threats like abusive ex-partners or identity theft.

       Separation of Personal and Professional Lives:
       A blogger might want to keep their work and personal lives entirely separate to prevent colleagues, employers, or clients from discovering their blog and its content.

       Freedom of Expression
       Write Without Judgment:
       Anonymity removes the pressure of being known by people you know in real life, allowing for more open and honest self-expression on sensitive subjects.

       Explore Sensitive Topics:
       Bloggers can more freely discuss taboo subjects like sexuality, mental health, or deeply personal experiences without the fear of being shamed or judged.

       Test Ideas:
       Anonymous blogging can be a space to experiment with new content or ideas without the immediate scrutiny and potential embarrassment if the content doesn’t perform well.

       Career and Social Benefits
       Avoid Social and Career Backlash:
       Sharing certain opinions or criticisms anonymously can prevent negative reactions, such as professional repercussions, social ostracization, or even harassment.

       Reduced Social Pressure:
       Without the pressure of real-world connections, bloggers can engage more freely and emotionally, leading to a more authentic and liberating writing experience.

       Maintain Professional Integrity:
       For professionals in sensitive fields, such as family lawyers or cybersecurity experts, anonymity helps protect their professional careers and relationships from being compromised by their blog content.

    7. Mike Shellman

       08/22/2025

       I got an enormous laugh out of this. Anonymity does not grant one the right to ridicule, insult, chastise, create political divisiveness, class warfare, belittle anyone on the basis of race, color, creed, economic status, education or otherwise act like an idiot on a public forum, which you are have done, countless times. In the name of “professional integrity?” Good grief, this is stupid. Anonymity does allow one to pretend to be credible, without having actual credentials, and to, for instance, it appears, plagiarize by not using quotes around something one cuts, and pastes and pretends its ones own writing, though in this particular case its easy to tell the difference.

       When you insult somebody on a very personal level, criticize or berate anybody, anonymously, its cowardly. Period. End of “excuses.” Its one of the many reasons social media has become so contentious and essentially no longer beneficial to society from a learning, or sharing of ideas standpoint. Nobody has the conviction, the guts to use their own name anymore. Ricky Fowler is hunting an anonymous scum bag on Instagram who insulted his wife and children…over golf ! Christ.

    8. THOMPSON

       08/22/2025

       Nice bit of Hypocrisy MIKE SHELLMAN.

       “Anonymity does not grant one the right to ridicule, insult, chastise… belittle anyone ”
       And then you go on, from your position as an anonymous poster, to ridicule, insult, chastise an belittle HUNTINGTON BEACH.
       I got an enormous laugh out of that. So very Woke of you. MIKE HaHaHA

    9. Huntingtonbeach

       08/22/2025

       Thompson, It’s a blog and a mistake to take this shit personal. Big boys don’t cry.

       Hypocrisy-

       Ovi- “Let’s hope the King of the World can bring about peace in Ukraine when he meets with Putin in Russia (sic)”.

       Mike Shellman- “Then I read this sort of stupid, meaningless shit about the “king of the world,” I think…why say that? What is the purpose in that? I don’t want any part of it.

       Clearly, neither did LTO Survivor, a really important source of information. You morons ran him off because you can’t keep politics out of your lives.

       The industry in Texas is close; we mostly all know of each other. You guys are making fools of yourself in my industry. I hear that all the time. If you want to cater to the likes of H. Beach and Nick G, and left wing bullshit, you are on the right track.”

       *****

       Tears for Fears released the single “Everybody Wants to Rule the World” on March 22, 1985.

       Welcome to your life
       There’s no turning back
       Even while we sleep
       We will find you

       Acting on your best behaviour
       Turn your back on Mother Nature
       Everybody wants to rule the world

       It’s my own design
       It’s my own remorse
       Help me to decide
       Help me make the

       Most of freedom and of pleasure
       Nothing ever lasts forever
       Everybody wants to rule the world

       There’s a room where the light won’t find you
       Holding hands while the walls come tumbling down
       When they do, I’ll be right behind you

       So glad we’ve almost made it
       So sad they had to fade it
       Everybody wants to rule the…
       I can’t stand this indecision
       Married with a lack of vision
       Everybody wants to rule the—
       Say that you’ll never, never, never, never need it
       One headline, why believe it?
       Everybody wants to rule the world
       All for freedom and for pleasure
       Nothing ever lasts forever
       Everybody wants to rule the world

       https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=znDgBy2mHbc&list=RDSTugQ0X1NoI&index=4

       “Everybody Wants to Rule the World,” by Tears for Fears, is a song that reflects the human desire for power and control. It uses the phrase “Everybody wants to rule the world” as both a statement of fact and a commentary on humanity’s pursuit of power, often leading to corruption and destruction. The song touches on themes of the Cold War, authoritarianism, and the environment, highlighting the dangers of unchecked ambition.

    10. Nick G

        08/22/2025

        ” left wing bullshit”

        Republicans used to stand for responsible, careful, fiscally prudent conservatism.

        Then the US allowed itself, over 30 years, to become dependent on oil imports from, of all places, the M.E. And then the 70’s oil shocks hit and a responsible president (Ford) started CAFE efficiency standards, and the next president with a degree in nuclear engineering and experience in the US Navy (Carter) worked hard to accelerate R&D into domestic alternatives to imported oil.

        This all made sense. It was conservative, it was consistent with good economics and science.

        And then the oil industry intervened with Reagan, and we were in the era of politicization of energy policy. Reagan, Bush Sr, Bush Jr and Trump all blocked R&D into alternatives to oil. Clinton kickstarted the hybrid electric vehicle with the Partnership for New Vehicles; Obama pushed hard for improved CAFE standards and incentives for EVs. Biden pushed hard for renewables and EVs. Even Republicans want along with some of this stuff, because it was so sensible, but over time Republican opposition to alternatives became more and more rigid, pushed by the oil industry (especially the Koch family, which managed the raising of countless secret funds for Republicans).

        Republicans made this a left vs right wing thing, and in the process harmed this country enormously. Unnecessary oil wars, unnecessary imports, unnecessary pollution. So much unnecessary harm.

    11. Mike Shellman

        08/22/2025

        Thompson, I am NOT an anonymous poster, I use my real name, have posted here on AOB for 10 years, have my own blog, am well published and am actually quite well known in the oil and gas sector. Google it. I have 60 years IN the industry as a producer. If I could have made a video, with my face, and name on it, I would have said the same thing. I stand by my words. Do you not get the difference?

        Who are you? I suggest you are a coward, like H. Beach, because you insult people anonymously. H. Beach can’t address the issue directly accept to plagiarize, cut and paste from other sources, then recite old 1980 song lyrics one might remember from their their drug induced college days, long ago.

        I can’t fix stupid, nor can I change the liberal left for its hate, and anger, most of which is hidden behind anonymity. Like yours.

        This forum has nothing whatsoever to to with “peak oil” or trying to get to the truth about peak oil; it has become little more than political bull shit. Ron Patterson you must be proud. Dennis Coyne appears to be out to lunch. Actually, I can’t say that I blame him. It is tiring dealing with idiots.

    12. Huntingtonbeach

        08/23/2025

        Shellman, your unconsciously projecting your own unacceptable thoughts, feelings, desires, and traits to someone else

    13. Kengeo

        08/23/2025

        Mike – Don’t argue with the idiots, they will drag you down to their level, then beat you with experience!

        Huntingtonbeach – Your stream of consciousness drivel has always been incoherent and incomprehensible, however, it seems as though your posts are now supplanted by weaponized ChatGPT bot and even less substance is provided (if that was even possible). If there was an award for the most meaningless content you’d win. Have you asked ChatGPT to help decipher your tortured ideas?

    14. THOMPSON

        08/23/2025

        Mike Shellman
        Thompson, I am NOT an anonymous poster, I use my real name, have posted here on AOB for …

        No one cares Mike, only you. Your CV is worthless here or haven’t you figured that out? You take all this seriously? Well good for you, but you’re flogging a Dead Horse.

        Who am I? You suggest I’m a coward, because I insult people anonymously. Sure I took a cheap shot at you, you made a fine target with your sanctimonious little speech about Righteous posters on the internet. This is 2025, not 1995 Mike. The old university message boards are long gone and the Web is a cynical trash can full of Lies trolls and misinformation. But there is still information to be gleaned so it’s still worth engaging in. I suggest you accept the new age as it is and stop trying to be the “Judge Dredd of the Internet.”

        As for who I am, I’m a retired Guy, retired from self-employment with no working history in the oil industry. But then I have no financial or economic credentials either, which has allowed me earn 20% per annum on my retirement savings for 20 years while all the “experts” have seen average returns chasing stocks and bonds and property. You don’t have to be an industry insider to make out the big trends Mike, they are obvious and uncovered with just a little concerted investigation and common sense. trusting yourself in other words and not marketing campaigns promulgated by mass media. Like the EV transition media campaign that has seen untold millions overpay for a technology that never lived up to its promises, while the rest of the motoring public happily drove onward past the broken charging points in their reliable Gas Guzzlers.

        In fact being an insider typically blinds you to what’s really afoot, ergo all the “experts” chattering about unconventional oil as though it matters. It matters to the banks and the Drilling companies, the railroads and the frac sand sellers, but to the average person in the nation it’s a meaningless exercise in Hopium. Aside from the few that actually got jobs in the industry none of that oil bounty has flowed down to them has it? Not like in the decades of the 20th century before the famous US peak in 1971.

    15. Jean-François Fleury

        08/23/2025

        Dear Mike, I sent you, long ago, a request to reset my password on your blog. Could it be possibe that you send me a message with everything necessary (login and something to reset the password)? Thanks in advance.

    16. kolbeinih

        08/22/2025

        I don’t even think it is possible to be anonymous anymore, unless you are a very conscious spy. I am not conscious at all about my anonymity. But there is a case of searching easy information on the web and I do not want everybody to know what I write about all the time.

    17. Andre The Giant

        08/22/2025

        “As I understand it, the oil sands lie atop a slab of limestone, and are there for the taking–the chances of “hitting oil” are 100% as long as you stay sober.”

        Gerry, always love reading your posts. And I am glad you said that.

        Back in “The Oil Drum Days” (oildrum.com)…there was a guy “named” RockyMtnGuy who I believe worked in the Canadian Tar Sands.

        He said they are 100% there. No doubt.

        Does anyone know why Venezuelan tar sands aren’t 100%??? The Orinoco Basin?

        I believe the Russian’s tried to produce them and gave up.

    18. Nick G

        08/22/2025

        anyone know why Venezuelan tar sands aren’t 100%?

        My understanding is that it’s purely mismanagement. The tar sands require special processing, which requires large capital investments, which requires investors who trust that they’ll get their money back in a rational investment environment. My sense is that no one trusts Venezuela anymore. Plus they’ve lost all their technical expertise, also due to epic mismanagement.

    19. Nick G

        08/22/2025

        Or, just go to electric transportation. Cheaper, easier, domestically powered.

        I know, I know…call me crazy.

    20. Ovi

        08/23/2025

        Gerry

        Thanks for the idea. Below are some of my thoughts on Canada’s oil sands.

        Here is a little known but very important fact about Canadian Oil sands, “Oil sand is made up of grains of quartz sand, surrounded by a layer of water and clay, and then covered in a slick of heavy oil called bitumen”.

        The above statement is 95% true because in a few places the oil sands are oil-wet rather than water-wet. What this means is that the majority of the bitumen can be separated from the sand using hot water. That was the initial process. Now some paraffinic solvents have been added to the process to make the separation less energy intensive.

        The first oil sands reserves were close to the surface and were mined. The initial idea was to upgrade the bitumen to a crude similar to WTI. No more exploration was required, just make the whole mining and upgrading process more efficient. The final upgraded product was known generally as synthetic crude and later Syncrude, now Suncor, made a blend known as Syncrude Sweet Blend and it was biased toward making more diesel. This was done by extracting carbon from the bitumen in a Coker and adding hydrogen extracted from natural gas. Some thought that the process was crazy but economically it worked well with cheap NG.

        Fortunately the construction of these cokers and upgrading facilities was started in the late 70s and 80s and were relatively inexpensive, in the sense that one could make an economic case for them. A third one came online in the mid 2000s and I recall this because I owned an oil sands stock that crashed at the time. Before completion, they announced that the cost of the third Coker and upgrading facility had grown from $3.8 B to $8.3 B. The saving grace for the company was that the peak oil theory was going strong at the time and WTI hit $148/b a few years later. That I think was the last upgrader built in the oil sands.

        Extracting oil sands oil has now moved to a new phase known as SAGD, Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage, because most of the remaining oil sands are too deep for open pit mining.

        The other shift that has occurred is a move toward producing a crude blend known as as WCS, Western Canada Select. It is a mixture of bitumen, solvents and synthetic crude which is shipped to the US for upgrading and now to Asia now that the TMX pipeline is operational. This avoids the building of costly new upgraders.

        It is estimated the Canadian oil sands proven reserves are in the order of 160 B barrels. The biggest challenges these days for extracting the oil sands are political and environmental and not economics even at $60/b WTI. The previous Prime Minister said that the oil sands need to be shut down. Creating the crude is energy intensive and the big push is to reduce the associated produced CO2 through carbon capture. The oil industry is asking for government assistant to build the capture facilities.

        The Canadian oil sands may be the last oil standing after the easier World oil has been produced. At some point in the future society may have to make a decision as to whether it needs oil sands crude or whether it should be left as stranded oil.

        https://open.alberta.ca/dataset/d5a7fec7-6e37-431c-9f33-eb98510c65e4/resource/eb20740d-d1bc-4e60-b441-99f6c84998d8/download/2016-oil-sands-discovery-centre-osdc-facts-about-albertas-oil-sands-and-its-industry.pdf

    21. THOMPSON

        08/21/2025

        SGP99 “nothing like the apocalyptic visions of early peak oil theorists.”

        Early Peak Oil theorists predicted no such thing? They predicted a slow collapse of the civilization built on oil. You have been misled by the extremists that plagiarized the peakoil message for profit and turned it into a Hollywood fantasy. A message which naturally the general public lapped up. Average people I have noticed seem incapable of planning a decade or two in advance. It’s all or nothing, business as usual or apocalypse for them.

    22. Iver

        08/22/2025

        Thompson

        Who were the extremists? Can you name them?

        Have you ever watched any of the ASPO conferences?

        ASPO was the organisation that brought Peak Oil to the wider audience and their message and graphs were very grim. Look at the article I posted above.

    23. Nick G

        08/22/2025

        Well, there was a wide range of theorizing.

        Some people thought that PO would cause a panic, and civilization would collapse in a frenzy of hoarding and oil wars. I would guess this was the majority opinion (among PO enthusiasts).

        Some people thought PO would cause a very long, slow decline.

        Neither seem likely to me. The Chinese certainly seem to think that electric transportation works well.

    24. Iver

        08/23/2025

        Nick G

        China is now consuming over 500 million tonnes per year more than 2021. At 4.8 billion tonnes China alone is destroying any chance of preventing the very worse climatic changes. Add in the deforestation that China is responsible globally, they are the main buyer of legal and illegally produced timber.

        https://climateandeconomy.com/2025/08/22/22nd-august-2025-todays-round-up-of-climate-news/

        Fires and floods and droughts do not work very well in any economy and they are getting worse by the year.

    25. THOMPSON

        08/22/2025

        Michael Ruppert for one IVER. He ran the popular website from the wilderness and went to all the big Peakoil conferences, made a movie or two about it as well, acting like he was an expert. He was an ex-cop turned investigator with a mental illness as it turned out. He shot himself in the head when the world didn’t end according to his time-frame. There were many others, some went on world tours, like Richard Heinberg of the post carbon institute, though he was a little more balanced. I’d have to go back through my archives to get you a list. I used to read the works of people like, Ken Deffeyes, genuine oil geologists who could put their knowledge into terms that made sense.

        ASPO conferences didn’t interest me, as such just preach to the converted, they get the same people showing up over and over and they regurgitate the same message basically. You only need to hear it once. ASPO was basically disbanded because funding shifted to the climate disaster scenario. ASPO now stands for the American Society of Pediatric Otolaryngology.

        Much was said by doomsayer/extremists and the survivalist/prepper types loved the message and ran with the madder -it’s upon us NOW- scenarios. Huge internet based industries geared up selling canned food and long life grains in buckets, all manner of merch. The RE industry got onboard selling bunkers etc and Hobby farming took on a whole new dimension, the Doomstead. You be surprised how many people took the message seriously, out where I live they have bought up a lot of small blocks and are farming or simply making secure offgrid arrangements. A lot of it’s overkill but that’s because the peakoil message became overkill and that’s the only message most people got.

        There is a correct response to the issue though, or a selection of responses, that one really ought to take to ensure they can continue to live in 20th century abundance as we go rapidly down the depletion curve, measured in Decades. But aside from those I portrayed above no one seems to be motivated? They just want to live in business as usual and see what happens, chattering about it in little corners of the internet like this. Pretending we’ve solved it with shale oil and windmills.

    26. kolbeinih

        08/22/2025

        Thompson

        I have a lot of sympathy for thoughts around the inbuilt “managed decline” that we are supposed to inherit (generation X). In one way you could say keeping the gas pedal together with technology is beneficial no matter what. But then you have the cultural gap aiming at consumerism as of now. Better have tools ready when peeling layers away from the prosperity onion at some point. If only artic hydrocarbons could delay decline for 10 more years (probably can) and technology expansion (in process). The most pleasant solution is that expansion of energy/material is still possible, but the timeframe would probably not be very long. To be debated at the very least. Climate waste is too long term for most people to think about.

    27. THOMPSON

        08/22/2025

        KOLBEINIH– Yes, I suppose it all boils down to how long you expect to live and whether you have descendants you care about. As a pragmatic Gen-Xer I’ll just be happy to see my days out in relative abundance and let the Gen-Xers sort out the world of tomorrow. The biggest threat I see is not access to oil but a financial collapse. Which of course will drastically reduce oil consumption planet wide, just like during Covid.

        I have prepared for the peeling of the prosperity onion as you put it, prepared as best I can. I’m also prepared to take a hit, and foreknowledge of that is priceless, Zero Debt. But at worst I’ll just go back a few levels and I don’t expect to be struggling like those with hundreds of grand in debts and losing jobs will be. You don’t have to be rich to be as secure as the rich. You just have to get off the treadmill at some point and be content with what you have.

        — “The most pleasant solution is that expansion of energy/material is still possible, but the timeframe would probably not be very long.” —

        I agree, it’s a bright spot, a buffer. The game isn’t over yet.

24. Anonymous

    08/22/2025

    Weekly NoviLabs email:

    1. Analyses of the Permian show rig count reduction (~20%/year since 1Q25) is outpacing efficiency gains (4-7%). Net result is slowing growth, which will turn to actual decline in early 2026.

    2. Midland basin analyses show worse geology over time. Note that for all the hooha (here) about well getting worse since 2016, Novi shows extremely similar wells from 2016-present, with slight up/downs–bumpy plateau. Best were in 2018 and 2019. But overall, 2016-2025 are very similar…and vastly better (like a phase change) versus 2015 and earlier. Also, completions are getting slightly better and compensating for slightly worse geology. It’s not some peak oiler dream…sorry. All that said, 2025 is looking like a slight downtick on the oscillation plateau of EUR. So something for you shale h8ers to hope for. 😉

    3. Utica wells are averaging (!) 15,000 feet long. Strata is easier to drill (maybe shallower also, I wonder?) Thus the trade-off of risk/quality for a long lateral work out so that the most cost effective drilling is 3 mile laterals. This opens some fringe areas to development. (I assume based on the companies they cited and how drilling has been recently, that this is all in OH gas/oil areas, not the “Deep Utica”, which is sort of on hold given the lack of adequate pipe capacity out of PA.)

    4. Few other stories that are less interesting to you all (products they sell, industry networking, etc.)

    P.s. If you give Novi a corporate email, you can sign up for the (slightly spammy but also has good content) newsletter. Sometimes they link to full/free report (or podcasts or the like). Other times, the full reports are for customers…but still the teasers have some content.

    1. DC

       08/23/2025

       Nony,

       My analysis shows normalized productivity increased from 2013 to 2015 and has since declined at about 1.7% per year from 2016 to 2022. I use EUR rather than 90 day cumulative which is a better metric in my view. The 90 day cumulative does not always correlate well with EUR so is a poor metric to use.

25. Ovi

    08/23/2025

    Rig Report for the Week Ending August 22

    The rig count drop that started in early April when 450 rigs were operating held steady for another week. The week as a whole was essentially unchanged.

    – US Hz oil rigs were unchanged at 363, down 87 since April 2024 when it reached 450 or down 20%.
    
– New Mexico and Texas rigs were unchanged at 81 and 182 respectively.
    – Texas Permian was unchanged at 148 rigs. Midland was unchanged at 21 while Martin added 2 to 19. Glasscock dropped 2 to 6.
    – In New Mexico Eddy dropped 1 to 32 while Lea added 1 to 47. Lea has added 12 rigs over the last 10 weeks. Over the same period Eddy has dropped 11 rigs.
    – Eagle Ford was unchanged at 28.
    – NG Hz rigs were flat at to 108.

26. Ovi

    08/23/2025

    Frac Spread Report for the Week Ending August 22

    The frac spread count dropped by 2 to 165. It is also down 64 from one year ago and down by 50 spreads since March 28.

27. DC

    08/23/2025

    New posts are up

    https://peakoilbarrel.com/opec-update-august-2025/

    and

    https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-august-23-2025/