Comments not related to Oil or Natural Gas production in this thread please. Thank you.
108 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum, August 10, 2023”
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Comments not related to Oil or Natural Gas production in this thread please. Thank you.
Comments are closed.
“Climate scientist Michael Mann is possibly best known for the iconic “hockey stick” graph published in 1998 that showed the steep rise in planetary temperatures.
He was also one of the targets of a massive email hack dubbed “Climategate” aimed at discrediting climate scientists.
As a result of all this he gained an intimate knowledge of the strategies of those who are attempting to resist climate action — climate change deniers, and those trying to derail the political and social changes necessary to fight climate change.
There are powerful vested interests who have seen it as advantageous to their agenda, to discredit science and to discredit the message of science. ”
Take me through some of the false narratives that you’re trying to debunk about climate change.
“So this is one important narrative: doom and gloom, despair mongering. There are climate advocates who, you know, of good intentions, of goodwill, who have come to believe that it’s too late to do anything about the problem.
That’s very dangerous because first of all, it’s not true. The science indicates otherwise. The science indicates that if we reduce our carbon emissions dramatically, we can avert the worst impacts of climate change. For example, this idea that global warming is now unstoppable, that warming is going to release so much methane from the Arctic that it will warm the planet beyond habitable levels. There is no scientific support for that contention.
A lot of the folks who fall victim to the doom and gloom are, again, of good intentions, of good will. But they’re being weaponized. The inactivists love that narrative because they don’t care about the path you take to inaction, whether it’s outright denial of the science or denial that there’s any possibility of doing anything about the problem. ”
https://www.cbc.ca/radio/quirks/jan-30-new-climate-war-tactics-lizard-burrows-are-wildlife-condos-sleep-lunacy-and-more-1.5889807/prominent-climatologist-behind-hockey-stick-graph-talks-about-the-new-climate-war-1.5889809
Climate change ( now Climate Crisis) is a bit like religion. Some believe and some don’t. Those that believe that it has been established without doubt, can be likened to those believing in a God that has never, ever been scientifically proven to exist.
The work that Mann did was an injustice to real scientists. Despite what has been written their is NO irrefutable proof that 400ppm (0.04%) of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is causing so called global warming, despite claims to the contrary. Repeat the narrative enough and it becomes proof. Carbon dioxide levels have been much higher in the past, as have some average temperatures and it would be churlish to expect that there is a so called steady state. Water vapout exists in the atmpsphere at much higher concentrations and absorbs much more radiation.
The IPCC is collection of mainly bureaucrats feeding on the teat, whilst the scientific evidence that does exists is maniplulated to fit the narrative. Conclusions are drawn on dubious science. The hockey stick being one. Do your homework. The re is a lot of good evidence that does not support the IPCC narrative. The snag is that the MSM and social media have been very effective in suppressing alternative views and suppressing peer reviews and the publishing of works that are contrary to the climate crisis supporters polemic beliefs.That is not good science and this blog is is unfriendly to alternative view as well, only allowing one sided views on the Climate Crisis (Romanov is but one who has suffered abuse).
Going forward there are two main serous problem that no government wishes to tackle:
1. Population
2. Resource depletion
These are the real issues facing us all. Our political leaders, lacking cajonnes, and mostly inept (and corrupt), hide behind the Climate Crisis narrative. Don’t agree with me ? Fine. Do you own research. I guess that now I will make the DeSmog blog climate deniers database.
Oh, by the way, I had better declare that I have been working in the oil and petrochemicals area for 45 years. I do not support, and never have, the profligate consumption of resources, especially oil and gas, but making a switch away from oil and gas will take decades. My specialisation is chemical feedstocks. We ( the global population) are absolutely dependent on these feedstocks to support 8 billion people. There is no viable quick fix to replace these feedstocks, and without these petrochemical derivaties you will not be able to build renewable energy sources, build a low carbon economy or even even produce toothpaste to clean your teeth.
Thank you, I’m chastened.
Those that claim that Global Warming is bogus have failed to explain a couple of irrefutable facts. Sea ice extent at the poles has been steadily shrinking over the years despite the odd year or two when it appears to be growing. There is far less sea ice than there was fifty years ago.
Glaciers that feed many of the worlds most important rivers have been retreating around the world. There is the prospect that many of the rivers that have a glacier as their source could become seasonal, that is, they could dry out during dry seasons or droughts. We might see rivers run dry that have never run dry throughout recorded human history.
The areas where the loss of ice is most dramatic are often not areas that are very visible to the public so, it is easy to ignore them.
The Carnot Rationalization is a good example of why it is highly likely that
Just about all of the available combustible material on earth will be burnt
before we are all shriveled up and turning to dust.
Sure, maybe a small amount will be left in place. Debatable.
Hickory,
Coal is expensive (especially in places like China and India) and dirty. Solar will replace it, but how long it will take depends on the political power of legacy (aka obsolete) industries.
On the other hand, the US is far and away the largest holder of coal reserves in the world. The process of leaving most of the US’ coal in the ground is well under way:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_coal_reserves
I hope it stays in the ground.
Its far from a done deal either way.
Risking being accused of the “appeal to authority” logical fallacy, I suggest that when virtually every credible scientific organization on the planet accepts the premise that human activity is causing climate change a reasonably intelligent person lacking specific expertise on the topic would accept the premise.
Ah but, you say, there are experts that do so! While true, there are also biologists who tout intelligent design and doctors who smoke cigarettes.
And there are scientists that support climate denial. It is no coincidence that a large portion of them publish through the Heartland Institute, originally funded by the tobacco industry, not to prove that tobacco smoke was harmless but to cast doubt on the legitimate research proving the health hazards of tobacco smoke. The Heartland Institute and most of the other organizations and individuals publically opposing climate mitigation have financial ties to the ff industry.
I’m open minded. Maybe Mike Mann and others are scam artists and Charles Koch is a public minded intellectual But the smart money is on Michael Mann and his lot.
Just for reference here’s a list of 197 scientific organizations that have taken a stand supporting the science:
https://www.opr.ca.gov/facts/list-of-scientific-organizations.html
And here are the most visible organizations opposing the science:
https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/global-warming-skeptic-organizations
Note that none of the latter organizations claim to be primarily scientific and a little research will show close ties to the ff industry.
Who ya gonna believe?
You’re correct, humans will believe just about anything. So you’ve worked in fossil fuels your whole life, and you don’t believe in climate change. Got it.
CARNOT
their [sic] is NO irrefutable proof that 400ppm (0.04%) of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is causing so called global warming
If you are looking for irrefutable truth, you should go to church. Claiming science is religion and demanding irrefutable truth suggests a lack of clear understanding of science.
If you have a refutation, let’s hear it.
Do you own research.
Does finding a like-minded crazy on the internet count?
The fact that you use choose a phrase that has been so often parodied shows that you lack the critical reading skills you need to sift through the flood of nonsense on social media.
Going forward there are two main serous problem that no government wishes to tackle:
1. Population
2. Resource depletion
This claim is completely false. Governments all over the world are taking measure to deal with these problems and have been for decades.
Our political leaders, lacking cajonnes, and mostly inept (and corrupt),
Populist claptrap, a dead giveaway that you don’t have anything worthwhile to say.
Silver lining- climate science deniers will likely starve out first.
“The word science can mean a lot of different things. When we say the word science people will have a lot of different associations. Some people think it’s a field of experimentation, a mode of learning, a fashion of testing hypothesis; and have then the ability to change the relationship between people and people, and people and nature, by way of technology and understanding.” ~ Timothy Snyder
What will cause the next Holocaust?
https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/angry-planet/id1023774600?i=1000358645838
Carnot,
Keep in mind that the Sun’s output has increased over time and the relevant period for life as it exists in Earth today is the past 10 million years or so, by 30 million years ago atmospheric CO2 fell below 300 ppm, and for most of the last 800 thousand years atomospheric CO2 has been in the 180 to 300 ppm range up to about 1900 CE. Prior to recent times the last time atmospheric CO2 was around 400 ppm was about 4 million years ago during the Pliocene era. During that period 4 million years ago when atmospheric CO2 was about 400 ppm, global average temperatures were about 3 C warmer than at present, and average temperatures at high northern latitudes were about 14 C higher than today.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/what-earths-climate-was-last-time-co2-was-over-400ppm-now-165871
” Despite what has been written their is NO irrefutable proof that 400ppm (0.04%) of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is causing so called global warming, despite claims to the contrary.” : false. Just an example, the Pliocene Climatic Optimum, whose characteristics (PRISM IV) are used as a testbed for the correction of climate modelisation (Pliomap 2), shows a comparable world with an atmospheric carbon dioxide level on the same order than today and a global temperature warmer than today as the process of transformation is not ended. Second, a bunch of articles have shown that without the introduction of carbon dioxide in atmosphere by our actions the current evolution of global temperature is not possible to explain by the natural variability (https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2022/09/watching-the-detections/). If not enough, the current temperature excursion is unprecedented since the beginning of the current interglacial (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03984-4). Fourth, historical models have predicted correctly the recent evolution of global temperature (the trends are correct and the variability envelopes are the same) including the first published in 1970 by Syukuro Manabe et col. (https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2021/10/a-nobel-pursuit/).
”The IPCC is collection of mainly bureaucrats feeding on the teat, whilst the scientific evidence that does exists is maniplulated to fit the narrative. Conclusions are drawn on dubious science. ” : false. The IPCC is mainly constituted of scientists which are doing two things and by the way, the people in charge are changed on a regular schedule. 1) Make the state of the art in several science fields concerning climate. It is a classical process of science review 2) A reading committee specific to each field examines the review work and makes corrections to this work. All of this is currently done in scientific publications but on a bigger scale in the IPCC. If you have sound scientific arguments to bring in the discussions, you have the right to make contributions. I think that this process is beyond the scope of a lot of intellectually restricted people and that the work of ipcc being felt as an intervention in the life of the world and undirectly in the life of common people is badly felt by these people, which explains the mistrust or even hatred felt toward the ipcc.
”There is a lot of good evidence that does not support the IPCC narrative. The snag is that the MSM and social media have been very effective in suppressing alternative views and suppressing peer reviews and the publishing of works that are contrary to the climate crisis supporters polemic beliefs.” Here we are speaking of conspirationism. Here you have a list of specialists to start a treatment : https://www.pagesjaunes.fr/annuaire/chercherlespros?quoiqui=psychiatre+&ou=tours&univers=pagesjaunes&idOu=
”making a switch away from oil and gas will take decades (…) and without these petrochemical derivaties you will not be able to build renewable energy sources, build a low carbon economy or even even produce toothpaste to clean your teeth.” I agree but I am afraid that the ressources will be depleted before.
Past peak oil you say. Well not according to the IEA who claim global oil demand hit a record 103 million bpd in June and could set another record in August: “Global oil demand will hit new highs and is expected to average 102.2 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, driven by summer air travel, strong Chinese petrochemical activity, and higher oil use in power generation, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday. World oil demand is set to grow by 2.2 million bpd this year, with China accounting for more than 70% of growth, the agency said in its closely-watched Oil Market Report (OMR) for August.”
Canada doing it’s part.
According to the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), the European Union’s Earth observation program, Canadian wildfires emitted about 290 million tonnes of planet-warming carbon between Jan. 1 and July 31. That’s more than one billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, according to the United States Environmental Protection Agency. To put that in perspective, that’s about equivalent to the annual emissions from more than 285 coal-fired power plants.
https://www.nationalobserver.com/2023/08/04/news/canadas-wildfire-emissions-smash-another-record
Depending on whose opinion you like best, the solar electricity industry will grow at anywhere from maybe ten percent annually to as much as fifty percent annually over the next ten years or so.
Assuming Old Man Business As Usual’s wheels don’t fall off………..
What do the regulars here think?
There are developers working on Perovskite cells with the potential of increasing their efficiency, adding photo conversion layers and increasing their durability and stability. There are indications that their manufacturing cost could be as low as 1/10th that of their silicon brethren. I expect to see conversion rates approaching 30 to 45% with the later producing enough electricity to supply my household in January. So yes, I can easily see those growth rates as oil and natural gas production reaches a peak and then starts to decline.
What can we electrify that uses fossil fuels?
If we can electrify our homes for January’s cold and short days, what will we use the surpluses of summer for?
“What can we electrify that uses fossil fuels?”
Most things: probably 85%.
“If we can electrify our homes for January’s cold and short days, what will we use the surpluses of summer for?”
Cheap surplus power can create synthetic fuels to replace fossil fuels for those things where liquid or gas fuels are more convenient: long distance aviation & water shipping, seasonal agriculture, polar or isolated rural transportation, seasonal generation backup, etc.
Possible synthetic fuels include hydrogen & methane, methanol, ammonia, and diesel. The conversion chemistry is well known, though cost reductions and efficiency improvements will continue.
And, of course, heavy industrial power users will migrate to places with cheap surplus power: steel & aluminium etc.
In France, there are 1000 TWh of energy produced by oil and gas. 414 are coming from electricity. For France, the equation is simple : we must triple the production of electricity. For Asian countries, the situation is dramatic : they are relying only on gas and oil. Those who have coal are using it. Nearly no country has nuclear power plant (except India and China). I don’t know what will become of these countries when the noose of oil shortages will tighten. In Europe, there will be generally no surpluses of electricity coming from the summer period. In Spain the electricity produced by the solar panels during the summer period compensates the decrease of the electricity produced by wind energy. And I am not speaking of the mess on the electrical grid with the intermittency of the electricity production. But if there is a surpluses, there is, for me, a clear use : extract carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to store it somewhere in order to decrease the carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere.
“In Spain the electricity produced by the solar panels during the summer period compensates the decrease of the electricity produced by wind energy.”
This is a nice example of the synergy of wind and solar power: solar is higher during the day and the summer, wind is higher at night and in winter. This inverse correlation reduces the variance of the combination.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xgZC6da4mco
This is Al Gore preaching to the choir, as a practical matter……….. because the TED X audience is mostly well educated, as best I can see.
Of course he’s right…… unfortunately for all of us, who will be mostly dead before our time before this century is out if we don’t change course .
We’re damned if we do, and we’re damned if we don’t.
Unless we get a steady stream of what I refer to as Pearl Harbor Wake Up Events, to the extent that even a hillbilly trumptard backwoods Baptist is forced to accept climate realities, it’s politically impossible for any government of any large country, a couple of Western European countries possibly excepted, to base policy on sharp short term cuts in fossil fuel use. This would be political suicide, pure and simple.
The only hope, as I see it, politically and economically, is to keep the pedal to the metal, around the clock, around the calendar, on renewables, efficiency, and conservation, and pray to our favorite rock or snake or whatever that the renewable energy industries grow so fast as to simply displace fossil fuels to an ever greater extent, faster every year, so that total fossil fuel use peaks within the next few years and declines after that.
I’m not optimistic that this will come to pass.
But speaking as a farmer, with a farmer’s understanding of food, soil, water, and other resources, I’m of the opinion that there will likely be some periodic large scale die offs ranging well up into the hundreds of millions of people within the next few decades. If so, this will reduce the pressure on the environment to some degree, although simply pointing this out is likely to get me labeled as a nut case or worse.
And there are a couple of silvery spots in the dark clouds. One is that birth rates in most of the world are declining precipitously. The population might peak quite a bit sooner than predicted in some areas.
And it seems to be a fact that most of the human race lives in places that in order to burn fossil fuels they must import the same. This opens up the possibility that high taxes on ff will be levied in quite a few countries, in order to preserve some semblance of fiscal stability.
Changing course is not entirely out of the question, but it seems to me that the odds against it are high…….. as in ten or twenty to one or maybe even worse.
At least I won’t be around to see the worst…….. unless the worst arrives considerably sooner than expected.
But this does not necessarily mean that some people in some places won’t pull thru the built in overshoot crash landing with the lights on, food in the stores, and cops on the street.
The Antarctic may have reached maximum sea ice area six weeks early and 18% below average of the last 20 years. The chance of this being random noise is remote and would more likely indicate an ongoing system phase change. The surface air temperature has been low the the last month so this must be coming from the oceans. If this is the effect on sea ice what is happening at the base of the Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers? If sea ice isn’t being formed and more fresh water run off from land ice melt is being seen how much is the thermo-haline pump for the southern overturning circulation slowing down? How much will the decreased albedo affect the earth energy imbalance as sunlight starts to impact on the newly bare water surface and will that speed up still more the sea ice decline?
Methane levels in the Arctic are showing signs of spiking. An increase of 100ppb is equivalent to just over 2 ppm CO2. Is this a sign of permafrost melt (N2O is also high) or increased carbon monoxide from the Canada and Siberia wildfires scavenging the hydroxyl radical and allowing longer methane half life (CO at ground level has not increased but the wildfires tend to throw it higher where it can do more damage). Currently Arctic air temperature anomalies are the highest recorded for summer months, which may or may not have anything to do with methane levels.
It’s called “The Tipping Point.” It has been met, and now there is no return. Methane is being dumped into the atmosphere from undersea and melting permafrost. It is a positive feedback. The glacial runoff is a positive feedback. The increasing albedo from the ice melt is a positive feedback. And now the melting snowcap is exposing the darker dust cover and causing the Greenland albedo to increase.
It’s all over people. Our efforts to decrease CO2 in the atmosphere is a noble effort, but it comes way too late. Our only comfort is we can now watch idiot deniers swelter in the heat.
Greenland Ice Sheet Getting Darker
The bright white surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet reflects well over half of the sunlight that falls on it. In summer, this reflectiveness helps the ice sheet maintain itself: less absorbed sunlight means less heating and melting. In the past decade, however, satellite observations show a drop in Greenland’s reflectiveness. The darker surface absorbs more sunlight, accelerating melting.
“Our efforts to decrease CO2 in the atmosphere is a noble effort………”
Latest Daily CO2
Aug. 11, 2023 = 421.24 ppm
Aug. 11, 2022 = 417.24 ppm
1 Year Change = 4.00 ppm (0.96%)
“It’s all over people. Our efforts to decrease CO2 in the atmosphere is a noble effort, but it comes way too late. ”
I’m afraid Ron is right, but some of us in some places will probably pull thru with the water and sewer working, food in stores and cops on the street.
“Our only comfort is we can now watch idiot deniers swelter in the heat.”
I’m enjoying a bitter laugh about such people almost every time I get into a public conversation.
Half of my neighbors lecture me about a children’s level ” Bible School” interpretation of religious scripture, to the effect that God controls everything, and that mankind controls nothing, cannot do anything that effects the weather, etc.
The large majority of these people think they know all about science and scientists of course.
The width and depth of their ignorance is truly astounding.
One of the critical failings of the well educated liberal establishment in countries such as the USA is that such liberals seem to be incapable of understanding that you can’t just EXPLAIN things to such people.
They’re not only incapable of understanding, they’re also thoroughly and one hundred percent effectively indoctrinated against even listening to anything contrary to their established beliefs.
And they add up to something like fifty percent of eligible voters in the USA. Eighty percent in dark red communities.
OFM
Unfortunately, we are fighting many more threats than just the issues of energy production and use. How many people are even aware of UG99? A wheat rust that has mutated into one that defeats all the strongest rust resistant genes in todays wheat cultivars? The response? -collect all the genetic material from wild wheat relatives with lesser , but some resistance to rust, and incorporate those genes into new wheat cultivars. That will buy a few years ( maybe) but when the rust develops resistance to those genes ( in a few years) then every wheat strain on the planet will be susceptible to attack.
https://www.fao.org/agriculture/crops/rust/stem/rust-report/stem-ug99racettksk/en/
Old Chemist…do you have a date on that Rust update?
Hickory
No date on that one, but here is another one from Nov. 2019.
https://twin-cities.umn.edu/news-events/origin-deadly-wheat-pathogen-revealed
I expect that most of the research going on is being done by the seed companies, they will keep it confidential, the lack of news from those players means they do not have a respectable replacement yet.
Univ Plant Science dept around the world work hard on wheat stem rust…perpetual problem. One of these years it might become front page news.
It seems to be the case that dust and soot from industries located anywhere near the Arctic are falling on glaciers all over the far north, and on Greenland, lowering albedo even more in addition to higher air temperatures.
And on top of that……… there are bacteria and probably other microscopic or near microscopic life forms that are apparently colonizing ice in places where the temperature approaches the melting point.
Ron is likely correct……. We’ve probably passed a tipping point such that northern hemisphere ice cover is going to continue to shrink.
You should not say that there is no return possible. It is an excellent pretext for the deniers to do nothing and change nothing. Think to the hundred millions people who are living on coastal areas in Asia and who will be affected by the accelerated sea level rise coming from the melting of ice currents in Antarctica and in Greenland. If we don’t extract carbon dioxide from the atmosphere in order to reduce the thermic stress on the ice-sheets, the displacement of these hundred millions people will cause havoc, which we will not need.
“If we don’t extract carbon dioxide from the atmosphere”
That task takes a civilization with plentiful excess energy.
Is that us?
Actually, it is: look how we waste it on low value thing like single occupancy SUVs.. The problem is that we don’t have plentiful excess *low-carbon* energy.
Yet.
And it’s far cheaper to replace FF with renewables than it is to suck carbon out of the air. But solar and wind are already half the cost of coal and gas, and much less costly than oil. That means for the same cost we can have almost twice as much energy, even accounting for the cost of higher renewable variability. That means we’d have alot of very cheap energy, for things like carbon capture
Overbuilding of renewables is a low cost way of dealing with variability, and it has the side benefit of a great deal of surplus, cheap power.
“That means we’d have alot of very cheap energy, for things like carbon capture ”
I’ll believe it when I see it. Doubtful…and you can quote me.
Well, you might be right. Overbuilding is a low cost strategy for dealing with variability, but there are cheaper ones. Demand Side Management is almost free, for instance. Long distance transmission, improved forecasting and wide area grid balancing are also relatively inexpensive.
Still, solar is only going to get cheaper, and it’s likely there will be significant surpluses in most places. California is already dealing with surplus solar, though so far they’re using the kind of solutions I outlined above.
California is fun to watch. They have good stats and charts at caiso.com. You can start at https://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/supply.aspx#section-supply-trend
People are absolutely not giving up their treats. We know this, and companies don’t want to stop producing them.
The obvious solution to all of this would be demand side curtailment, as you say. That this hasn’t happened or is even remotely looked at should give you a good indicator as to why nothing is going to stop us flying off that proverbial cliff in the FF fuelled Suburban SUV of death that is our industrial civilisation.
The manmade horrors we encounter along the way will just get boring. Look how easily we normalised mass wildfires and floods this summer. So long as we get our summer beach time, we can just sit and relax while the town across the way burns down, and with it everyone who lives there.
Lahaina gets wiped out and the narrative is either “won’t somebody think of the tourist bucks we’re losing” or “Jewish space lasers caused it so Bill Gates can feed you bugs” or some such shit.
We’re truly an amazing species.
“demand side curtailment…hasn’t happened or is even remotely looked at ”
Actually, it’s widely used, and has been for a long time. Two examples:
The Texas winter utility disaster was mostly rescued by Demand Side Management (DSM aka curtailment). It didn’t get much notice because it was on the industrial side, but large industrial companies are delighted to occasionally curtail their power consumption in return for a break on their power pricing. It’s widely done.
2nd, if you have an iphone, take a look at the settings, battery, battery health & charging: there are two settings: Optimized Battery Charging, and Clean Energy Charging. These are both forms of DSM, the first to extend battery life and the second to take maximum advantage of low-carbon electricity. This kind of charging is also being done with EVs.
George, thanks for the two charts. They should set off alarm bells in everyone.
Currently, Arctic air temperature anomalies are the highest recorded for summer months, which may or may not have anything to do with methane levels.
Oh, you are just being modest. It has everything to do with methane levels.
Interesting paper.
METHANE RELEASE FROM CARBONATE ROCK FORMATIONS IN THE SIBERIAN PERMAFROST AREA DURING AND AFTER THE 2020 HEAT WAVE
“To conclude, our observations hint at the possibility that permafrost thaw does not only release microbial methane from formerly frozen soils but also, and potentially in much higher amounts, thermogenic methane from reservoirs below and within the permafrost. As a result, the permafrost–methane feedback may be much more dangerous than suggested by studies accounting for microbial methane alone. Gas hydrates in Earth’s permafrost are estimated to contain 20 Gt of carbon.”
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2107632118#:~:text=The%20atmospheric%20concentrations%20of%20methane,and%20in%20March%2FApril%202021.
It seems likely to me that some guys will get serious with atmospheric chemistry and physics experiments by the end of the decade, as an attempt to counteract the big experiment with carbon and methane and NO,etc that we are already doing.
Its bound to get very sloppy.
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/preparing-the-united-states-for-security-and-governance-in-a-geoengineering-future/
Anything but to have our medicine.
We are one fucked up species.
“Optimal Outcome” – D. Coyne
Two cats,
What the hell are you talking about? I would note that I support regulations for negative externalities which are outside of a market system. Also note that regulations are needed for monopolies and oligopolies as the optimal allocation of resources posited by Walrasian Economics only applies to perfectly competitive free markets which is rarely observed in the real world.
Hickory said:
“physics experiments by the end of the decade”
No controlled experiments are possible in Earth science, which means any validation is suspect. This also brings in Murphy’s Law,
BTW, Earth scientists hate hearing this.
“No controlled experiments”
True, they will be uncontrolled.
And I used the term ‘experiment’ very loosely.
They will be blind manipulations, as we generally tend to do.
Really the only validations of Earth sciences models one can do is either prediction or cross-validation. Predictions can take a long time if the observations one is monitoring are slowly evolving, while cross-validation with existing data is sensitive to tainting.
In contrast, look at how fast LK-99 superconductor “finding” was reversed
Colossal craters found in Siberia. What made them?
This is a National Geographic site that tries to explain what causes these massive craters. Spoiler alert, it’s global warming.
I googled “How many Siberian methane craters have been found” and got the below quote. Bold mine.
Siberian methane craters are gaping circular scars in the frozen ground of the Yamal and Gyda peninsulas in the Russian Arctic. They are caused by powerful blowouts of methane gas from the permafrost, which are thought to be linked to climate change. More than 20 craters have been discovered since 2013, using drones and 3-D mapping. Similar craters have also been found in the Barents Sea, where methane mounds exploded thousands of years ago. Scientists warn that the release of methane and carbon dioxide from these craters and wildfires can accelerate global warming.
At the international seabed mining meeting [International Seabed Authority (ISA)] in Jamaica last month, the countries agreed to put off decisions and regulations until next years meeting.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/29/deep-sea-mining-international-talks-isa-jamaica
ANTARCTICA RISKS ‘CASCADES OF EXTREME EVENTS’ AS EARTH WARMS
Scientists have become increasingly alarmed on how the Antarctic ice has struggled to grow back after hitting an all-time low in February—a deviation so extreme from the normal that it’s been dubbed a “six sigma event,” or once-in-a-7.5-million-year phenomenon. The Arctic, too, is expected to be ice-free in summers by 2030, underscoring the rapid pace at which global warming is damaging the planet’s ecosystems.
https://phys.org/news/2023-08-antarctica-cascades-extreme-events-earth.html
When Thwaites goes, this will be the end of the global economy, including imports/exports of fossil fuels and grains. A one meter rise in sea level over a decade will render useless all port infrastructure globally, many of which are built at the edge of coastal plains whose cities will also become uninhabitable. Once it’s known that this is occurring, insurance companies will pull out making any rebuilding impossible. From what I can tell, the timeline on this is within 3-10 years. Five years after Thwaites collapses, fossil fuel use will probably have collapsed 80-90%.
Think about it. When you are six inches above water, you can cruise at 80mph in a three ton pickup. When you are six inches underwater, you can’t even use a canoe or a kayak because there are too many submerged obstacles.
https://cleantechnica.com/2023/08/08/alberta-halts-new-renewables-because-they-were-too-successful/
Read it and grind your teeth and rip out some hair.
This is more or less typical of what we’re up against most of the time.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/08/12/climate/clean-energy-us-fossil-fuels.html?utm_source=newsshowcase&utm_medium=gnews&utm_campaign=CDAQtIThq4Cetut1GLzV17HCvY6onQEqDwgAKgcICjCO64oDMJavPA&utm_content=rundown&gaa_at=g&gaa_n=AfHvTEsE2eLUUYg3C17e92eXRz96iGSZqD8BNTSPxrnh6YEPktb4ZSUQ7Lw49CqCS2BFax13TD5H4VxJB7AnLf7xuaG3&gaa_ts=64d91535&gaa_sig=I516GbJ5kW29_esElKusgrWzWaK_N1nNj0oaCv7B7GauuqegEWN9QmbvMwlb951L8qklAQEhSBqLEDt0zSma6w%3D%3D
You can read this by way of your Google Account, bypassing paywalls.
There’s a lot of very encouraging info in it.
The Tony Seba kind of guys may turn out to be on the money……… but it may well still already be too late to prevent some really nasty changes in the world wide climate.
What do you do with someone who committed treason against the US government, even if the attempts to overthrow the government were unsuccessful?
I point out that incompetence or delusional ideation are not a criminal defense from prosecution.
Better get used to the idea that even an ex-president who commits criminal acts is subject to the the laws of the country.
I recall the time when the Republican party liked to sell it self as a ‘law and order’ party. What a joke.
fat boy trump?
https://p16-sign.tiktokcdn-us.com/tos-useast5-p-0068-tx/87a6638a22b6495aadcefbda6d67c96b~tplv-r00ih4996s-1:480:480.jpeg?x-expires=1692075600&x-signature=mUlDBY%2BqcUoPoP4j9BdUrBJVkOU%3D
How about a summary?
I can’t see it, paywalled.
Fine yesterday—
I’m blocked today also
This air quality/smoke forecasting tool is quite good for getting an idea of the location and extent of Canada’s northern most fires.
https://firesmoke.ca/forecasts/current/
One thing anthropogenic climate change is doing is making the US more socialist, e.g. through increased calls on state aid during declarations of emergencies, withdrawal of private insurance leaving only the state as being they only entity to be able to take on some risks, more involvement in directing industry etc. Maybe that’s why the most rabid and refractory deniers are there.
Not sure that conclusion would stand up to analysis, but interesting to consider.
Are ‘anti-socialist’ leaders more likely to let their constituents/citizenry and businesses fail and flee after loss of housing or jobs or infrastructure related to natural disasters like flooding or fire or drought?
I doubt that. They might be more prone to letting other regions people and businesses fail however.
On the other hand, ‘anti-socilaist’ voters become great socialists when they are the ones needing help.
“Whatever climate emerges over the coming decades and centuries, it will bear little relation to our past. If we are to survive, the same must be true of us.”
Decades and centuries is not appropriate–
Its happening now
It’s been a real trip this summer to hear people slowly realise that the thing they were assured would be a problem for their kids, is now their problem. And worse and faster than expected.
Really makes ya think. Discounting is a helluva mental drug.
Greenland will have a late season bump in the amount of area featuring ice surface melt. Stay tuned.
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx_frames/todays-weather/d7-10/gfs_arc-lea_t2max_d7-10.png
https://nsidc.org/greenland-today/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/08/11/florida-record-heat-climate-summer/
record Florida heat
Russian ruble is now worth less than a penny, infuriating Vladimir Putin’s inner circle: ‘They’re laughing at us’
Vladimir Putin’s luck may be running out now that the ruble plunged below one cent, the lowest level against the U.S. dollar since the early days of his war in Ukraine.
The Russian president, who briefly faced down a coup attempt in June, could long point to the resilience of his currency in the face of sanctions as a propaganda victory that proved just how impotent Western economic reprisals were.
More than 500 days since his army invaded Ukraine, it looks as if Moscow’s highly respected central bank governor can no longer perform miracles for her boss.
The ruble that Elvira Nabiullina manages crashed through the psychological support of 100 to the U.S. dollar and on Monday is now worth less than a penny, the first time since March 23 of last year.
“They’re laughing at us,” scathed Vladimir Solovyov, Russia’s most well-known state TV personality and a chief Putin ally, already last week.
There is a lot more in this article. Click on blue link to read it.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-12405403/Chinas-military-claims-new-laser-weapon-fires-indefinitely-without-losing-power-overheating.html
China’s military claims to have new laser weapon that fires ‘indefinitely’ without losing power or overheating
‘This is a huge breakthrough in improving the performance of high-energy laser systems,’ the team, led by laser weapon scientist Yuan Shengfu, told South China Morning Post.
‘High-quality beams can be produced not only in the first second but also maintained indefinitely.’
I read the article and it seems pretty dodgy. That may have been my first encounter with the Daily Mail but the writing was awful and whoever wrote the description of the laser technology absolutely did not understand what he was writing. The idea of indefinite “firing” conjures up in my mind indefinite power consumption of electrical power. The most efficient lasers generally available, diode lasers, only operate at about 20% efficiency so to get any significant amount of power to a target over a short period of time a truly huge amound of power needs to be dealt with at the source. It may seem crude but a bullet, especially one with a chemical explosive attached, is an incredibly effective way to deliver a distructive amount of energy.
I’m not trying to say the story is not true, only that with such poor writing it is hard for me to take it seriously unless a more credible source confirms that this is a significant breakthrough.
The Daily Mail is great. Naked pictures of the Kardashians every other day!
Indefinite power sounds dodgy.
Maybe meant sustained for a longer period of time.
Ummm – is this irony? I think it must be. Please, American Peak Oil Barrelfolk, keep away from the Daily Mail aka the Daily Heil. It is a total arsewipe. Indeed, your arse would be shittier if you wiped it with the Mail. In the 1930s, it was a rabid supporter of Hitler and Nazi Germany. It was of Lord Northcliff, owner of thepaper, that PrimeMinister Baldwin said he had “Power without responsibility – the privilege of the harlot through the ages”. That was in the 30s. It has not changed.
You know you love it Mike G.
Daily Mail is not peer reviewed research, but it is entertaining.
Daily Mail is one of his favorites, as long as it contains lots of pictures:
https://i0.wp.com/digbysblog.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/pinocchio-donald-trump-0902221-1.webp?resize=768%2C512&ssl=1
Yang Z (2022) China’s heat wave is creating havoc for electric vehicle drivers. The country is a leader in EV adoption, but extreme weather is exposing weaknesses in its charging infrastructure. MIT Technology Review.
https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/08/26/1058727/chinas-heat-wave-electric-vehicle/
As a globally unprecedented 70-day heat wave continues to hold its grip on southern China, with the highest temperature as much as 113°F (45°C), severe droughts and shortages in the hydropower supply are wreaking havoc on the lives of residents. Electric vehicle owners are one group particularly feeling the heat. Since public charging posts are temporarily closed or restricted and many owners don’t have a private charging post, they’ve suddenly found themselves facing serious difficulties in powering their daily commutes. Extreme weather, is increasingly disrupting power grids around the world, a reminder of the weaknesses in the charging infrastructure that keeps EVs running.
The record-breaking heat wave in China, which started back in June, has evaporated over half the hydroelectricity generation capacity in Sichuan, a southwestern province that usually gets 81% of its electricity from hydropower plants. That decreased energy supply, at a time when the need for cooling has increased demand, is putting industrial production and everyday life in the region on pause.
And as the power supply has become unreliable, the government has instituted EV charging restrictions in order to prioritize more critical daily electricity needs. On August 24, only two of the 31 Tesla Supercharger Stations in or near the province’s capital city of Chengdu were working as normal.
EV owners are also being encouraged or forced to charge only during off-peak hours, enforced by over 120 charging stations closed from 8 a.m. to midnight, the peak hours for electricity usage.
Chinese social media shows long lines of EVs waiting outside the few working charging stations, even after midnight. Electric taxi drivers have been hit especially hard, as their livelihoods depend on their vehicles. One driver got in line at 8:30 pm and only started charging at 5 AM.
Taken from Alice Friedemann http://www.energyskeptic.com Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”
Alice says: “EV charging not possible when restricted or grid down”.
Has she noticed that ICE refueling is not possible when restricted or the grid is down?!?
And the ability to schedule charging is a virtue, not a disadvantage (“a feature, not a bug”). Moving lower priority consumption to the night time is a big improvement over blackouts.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=su6kCDnHN3k
trump is named at the head of the list by Georgia prosecutors.
!
Here is a printable copy of the 18 names and charges in the Trump indictment charges.
Crooked Trump and his band of brothers
Just click on the blue link and enjoy!
The Fox News lead article is about what you would expect, but it DOES include the text of the indictment.
Quoting trump:
“Nineteen people were indicted, and the whole world is laughing at the United States as they see how corrupt and horrible a place it has turned out to be under the leadership of Crooked Joe Biden,” Trump told Fox News Digital during an exclusive interview late Monday night.”
I’m reminded of the day back in the sixties when I was in a freshman biology lecture, and an obviously sincere young Christian woman somehow wound up there, mistaking the correct building or something………
And took the opportunity to tell everybody how the Devil had taken in the professor, and the entire scientific establishment, concerning evolution, etc.
There were a couple of hundred of us, at least.
Nobody laughed.
We were simply too astonished or even stunned to think about laughing. She continued on for a minute or so in the dead silence, and then realized just what her audience was thinking, and turned red and ran out.
So the entire world is laughing…… for dead sure…….. at trump, excepting his dog like followers who cannot conceive of his doing any wrong.
That’s a great story. I wonder what happened to her…
Gird up your blue-veined loins, girls. It’s going to be an ugly, ugly, UGLY fifteen months to the next election.
RISING METHANE COULD BE A SIGN THAT EARTH’S CLIMATE IS PART WAY THROUGH A ‘TERMINATION-LEVEL TRANSITION’
“Since 2006, the amount of heat-trapping methane in Earth’s atmosphere has been rising fast and, unlike the rise in carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane’s recent increase seems to be driven by biological emissions, not the burning of fossil fuels. This might just be ordinary variability—a result of natural climate cycles such as El Niño. Or it may signal that a great transition in Earth’s climate has begun. Methane is both a driver and a messenger of climate change. We don’t know why it is now rising so rapidly, but the pattern of growth since late 2006 resembles how methane behaved during great flips in Earth’s climate in the distant past.”
https://phys.org/news/2023-08-methane-earth-climate-termination-level-transition.html
Meanwhile,
NASA CLOCKS JULY 2023 AS HOTTEST MONTH ON RECORD EVER SINCE 1880
“Overall, July 2023 was 0.43° Fahrenheit (0.24° Celsius ) warmer than any other July in NASA’s record, and it was 2.1° F (1.18° C) warmer than the average July between 1951 and 1980. The primary focus of the GISS analysis are long-term temperature changes over many decades and centuries, and a fixed base period yields anomalies that are consistent over time. Temperature “normals” are defined by several decades or more—typically 30 years.”
https://phys.org/news/2023-08-nasa-clocks-july-hottest-month.html
Every once in a while you discover that somebody you would likely think of as an enemy of renewables actually played a serious role in the growth of the renewables industries.
The Texas monthly is a publication that tells it straight about renewable energy, but of course being in Texas, you can’t exactly expect the editors to be gung ho about doing away with oil and gas, lol.
But this link is worth reading for the historical info in it. Ignore the bragging, Texans are unable to refrain in this respect.
https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/texas-number-one-in-renewable-and-nonrenewable-energy/
Here’s a quote.
It was politics and policy that catapulted Texas to the top. “We like wind,” then-governor George W. Bush said in 1996. He was talking about wind power and aimed the remark at the chairman of the Public Utility Commission, who was baffled, so Bush reiterated his point. “Go get smart on wind,” he ordered. So began the state’s unlikely emergence as a renewables superpower. A few years later, Texas ended its century-old electric-utility monopolies, a move that opened the door wide for renewable-energy developers.
Co2 graph
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/aa54d2ac-0e55-4f09-b733-db969a92b8d9_414x279.webp
264 ships waiting to go thru Panama canal . Water level is too low . Collateral damage .
https://www.ft.com/content/86839bc7-1926-4bf6-b593-1720f7fbd8b4?shareType=nongift
Saw that—
I have a passport that says I’ve been to Panama, but I don’t remember being there.
https://www.electrive.com/2023/08/15/pepsico-cites-consumption-of-1-1-kwh-km-for-tesla-semi/
So the payload is a secret?
I could follow one of those trucks around and count the number of cases and pallets unloaded and know the answer within a day. Warehouses that ship out stuff such as soft drinks load to the legal max just about all the time, and just about any truck necessarily crosses a weight station scale once in a while.
But if juice is fifteen cents per kilowatt hour, and the SEMI will run on two kWh per mile, that’s equivalent to diesel in the neighborhood of two bucks or maybe a little more.
These trucks are going to save a minimum of a hundred bucks per day for their owners just in diesel fuel…… and this would be for a typical delivery route, rather than long haul.
The official estimate for a fully loaded (41 tons) Tesla Semi appears to be 1.7 kWh per mile. I’d estimate industrial pricing for power at fleet depots – around 6 cents per kWh. That’s about 10 cents per mile.
If diesel is $3,50, and mileage is 7 MPG, then the conventional cost is 50 cents per mile.
If you drive 100,000 miles per year, that’s savings of $40k per year, not including lower maintenance costs (which would be significant). If you keep your vehicle 10 years, that’s $400k in savings.
That’s conservative – a long-haul truck for 150k miles per year would save $60k per year.
Right on Nick,
At the lower end of typical daily mileage for a delivery truck, the savings will be in the neighborhood of a hundred bucks, and as you point out, two hundred bucks and up per day for longer hauls.
But I’m not at all sure about that six cents you mention. My opinion is that juice for charging is going to cost more than that, at least for the next few years until more wind and solar power is available for charging.
Well, most charging will happen at night, at fleet locations. My understanding is that typical industrial power pricing is in the area of 6 cents, and I would think that this would qualify for that.
“So the payload is a secret?”
Hi Mac, I still think Tesla should have entered the heavy duty truck industry with a 2 or 3 axle shorter wheelbase day cab configuration with 200 to 300 mile range. With Tesla stating 500 mile range and 2 KWH per mile. The trucks battery capacity must be near 1000 KWH range. That would weigh in at about 14k to 15k pound range using the weight and power specs from their autos batteries. It would also mean about 150 cubic feet of battery volume. After the review of the video, the battery must be wrapped around the sides and bottom of the frame from spring hanger to spring hanger and is why Tesla is offering their truck with long wheelbases.
Notice in the video how much shorter the wheelbases International’s are next to the Tesla’s. Those long wheelbase are not desirable for local market city delivery. My guess is the Tesla configuration must have a payload of about 8,000 pounds less than the International configuration. The International tractor full of fuel would weigh almost 14 thousand pounds. Subtract out a fourteen liter engine that weighs about 3000 pound plus 500 more for the transmission and the tanks full at about another 1000 pounds. Than add back to that weight the 14k pound battery and about 750 pounds for the electric motor. Your going to get about an additional 10,000 pounds for the tractor. Add an additional 2,000 pound extra GCVW. I come up with about 8,000 pound smaller legal payload.
A pallet of 100 cases of soda cans weighs about 2000 pounds. A 53 foot trailer can handle about 24 to 26 pallets and weighs about 10,000 pounds empty without a liftgate. Most of the time for a market delivery configuration the weight is not going to be a issue, because it’s a mixture of different products, partial pallets and a number of different stops. But in the industry, the product is usually produced in one location and quickly distributed out to other warehouses for local distribution. Those distribution configurations can run 24/7. My guess is that payload limits can be an issue in these situations.
HB,
Tesla is offering a 300 mile range option.
The estimates I’ve seen are 1.7 kWh per mile, for a 850kWh battery for the 500 mile version.
Great work from Tesla pushing the bounderies.
A few years ago the limit for electric trucks were in the 20-30 ton range.
A little bit of pushback is justified; although I agree with the gist of this. Batteries are (or should be) made to be workhorses of the economy if possible. Whether that means LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate) batteries or something else remains to be seen. But I guess 3000+ charge cycles would be needed to justify the infrastructure investment some places. And the batteries better be designed to be recycled – there is a significant energy cost to do this (smart solutions here could definitely help in the future).
In the UK they studied if one lane of the motorway could be electrified like the tram to avoid large battery packs for the plus 20 tons vehicles. The reasons why they did this in the first place, is the efficiency of the electric motor to do work compared to an ICE engine. The transportation infrastructure is a sunk cost for a lot of years for a lot of places. That has to be taken into account. If battery energy loss is acceptable, and the EROI for renewables generating a major part of the electricity is good enough (hopefully) – then it is a good plan. It is possible to concentrate on making it work when it comes to raw materials and industry. Electric trains are a subsitute to electric trucks where the cost to maintain is moderate.
Greenland could soon achieve this season’s maximum extent of ice sheet surface melt.
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx_frames/todays-weather/d7-10/gfs_arc-lea_t2max_d7-10.png
Full speed ahead , right over the cliff .
https://indi.ca/the-maldives-as-microcosm-of-climate-collapse/
I’ve always said Malthus would get the last laugh.
https://www.sciencealert.com/major-population-correction-coming-for-humanity-scientist-predicts
Prof. Rees calls it like it is again, but it’s noteworthy of the level of fear and denial everywhere that he couldn’t get this into a peer reviewed publication. It should rely be part of everyones education and the quote from John Gray should be hung in every class room: “The human mind serves evolutionary success, not truth. To think otherwise is to resurrect the pre-Darwinian error that humans are different from all other animals”.
This is a link to the Rees article: https://www.mdpi.com/2673-4060/4/3/32
Thanks, Mac, and George. I have printed out the article, I can read it better that way. Copied it to Word and at font size 14, it runs 21 pages. I will read it today and post my two cents worth tomorrow. The link Again:
The Human Ecology of Overshoot: Why a Major ‘Population Correction’ Is Inevitable
From the abstract, Bold mine:
Problem: the human enterprise is a ‘dissipative structure’ and sub-system of the ecosphere—it can grow and maintain itself only by consuming and dissipating available energy and resources extracted from its host system, the ecosphere, and discharging waste back into its host. …
The global economy will inevitably contract and humanity will suffer a major population ‘correction’ in this century.
George, the John Gray quote is from Straw Dogs. I had a copy years ago but from all my moving around, I managed to lose it. I just ordered another copy. I want to read it again. It was that good. Thanks for the reminder.
The sea ice extent in all the Antarctic seas is more than 2 standard deviations below average except for the Bellinghausen/Amundsen Sea, which is 2SD above average. The Amundsen Sea is the sea into which the Thwaites and Pine Island Glaciers flow. I don’t know if this indicates higher glacial flow rates, more ice bergs, a bigger freshwater cap (it is a few weeks away from being visible in NASA worldview) but I suspect it is bad. I really think whatever is presently happening in the Antarctic is likely to make other near term environmental, economic or resource concerns, however serious, look relatively trivial in short order.
New posts are up.
https://peakoilbarrel.com/opec-momr-august-2023/
and
https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-august-19-2023/