The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook gives the USA data as C+C as well as total liquids, OPEC as crude only, but the rest of the world is Total Liquids only. All data in the charts below are million barrels per day.
The known data is through August 2022, the rest, in red, in million bp/d, is the EIA’s estimate. However, this is Total Liquids, not C+C. And Total Liquids is not a good indicator of oil production as the below table shows.
Read MoreComments not related to oil or natural gas production in this thread, please. Thank you.
Read more: Open Thread Non-Petroleum, Nov. 25, 2022The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for November 2022 was published recently. The last month reported in most of the OPEC charts that follow is October 2022 and output reported for OPEC nations is crude oil output in thousands of barrels per day (kb/d). In most of the OPEC charts that follow the blue line is monthly output and the red line is the centered twelve month average (CTMA) output. I also show a number of charts from the recent World Energy Outlook 2022, published by the IEA in October. I focus on a selection of charts from Chapter 7 of that report which covers oil.
Get this out of the way first. Making a prediction and then waiting 20-30 years to gather sufficient data to validate the prediction is not the way to do science. Yet this is the expectation in geoscience and earth science, where quick-turn-around of controlled experiments is not possible. The result of this lack of experimental control is that progress in climate science is glacially slow — since most models will fail to some degree, a geophysicist or climate scientist working in a specific domain may only get one chance in their career to test a long lead-time hypothesis. Feedback on results occurs over decades and breakthroughs are rare (see plate tectonics). So what I want to get out of the way first is: don’t expect any predictions from me. And I guarantee someone will ask for one.
However there are ways around having to do a prediction. One option is to consider the application of cross-validation of a model against existing data. As I was trained in the lab world of controlled experiments, this seems quite reasonable. One gets a fast turnaround on evaluating a model so you can try something else, or move on to another problem.
Read MoreA guest post by Ovi
Below are a number of Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production charts, usually shortened to “oil”, for Non-OPEC countries. The charts are created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and are updated to July 2022. This is the latest and most detailed world oil production information available. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Russia, Brazil, Norway and China is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction for a few countries and the world. The US report has an expanded view beyond production by adding rig and frac charts.
July Non-OPEC oil production increased by 697 kb/d to 49,616 kb/d. The largest increases came from Norway 311 kb/d, Kazakhstan 200 kb/d and Canada 178 kb/d. The largest offsetting decrease came from China 153 kb/d.
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