World Energy 2014-2050 (Part 1)

This is a guest post by Political Economist

World Energy 2014-2050: An Informal Annual Report

 “Political Economist” June 2014

The purpose of this informal report is to provide an analytical framework to track the development of world energy supply and demand as well as their impacts on the global economy. The report projects world supply of oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, biofuels, and other renewable energies from 2014 to 2050.  It also projects the overall world energy consumption, gross world economic product, energy efficiency, and carbon dioxide emissions from 2014 to 2050.

The basic analytical tool is Hubbert Linearization, first proposed by American geologist M. King Hubbert.  Despite its limitations, Hubbert Linearization provides a useful tool helping to indicate the likely level of ultimately recoverable resources under the existing trends of technology, economics, and geopolitics.  Other statistical methods and some official projections will also be used where they are relevant.

Oil

According to BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014, world oil consumption (including crude oil, natural gas liquids, coal-to-liquids, gas-to-liquids, and biofuels) reached 4,185 million metric tons (91.3 million barrels per day) in 2013, 1.4 percent higher than world oil consumption in 2012.  In 2013, oil consumption accounted for 32.9 percent of the world primary energy consumption.

World oil production (including crude oil and natural gas liquids) reached 4,133 million metric tons (86.8 million barrels per day) in 2013, 0.6 percent higher than world oil production in 2012.  Figure 1 shows oil production by the world’s five largest oil producers from 1965 to 2013.

 photo Oil062014-1_zpsc4e13cc7.jpgAs of 2013, world “proved” oil reserves stood at 238 billion metric tons, 1.0 percent higher than the “proved” oil reserves in 2012.

In recent years, the US oil production has surged due to the “shale oil” boom.  The US accounted for all of the growth of world oil production from 2008 to 2013.  Figure 2 shows the historical and projected US oil production from 1950 to 2050.  The projection is based on the reference case scenario for US oil production from 2011 to 2040 projected by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), extended to 2050 based on the trend from 2031 to 2040.  The EIA reference case projects the US oil production to peak in 2019, with a production level of 543 million metric tons.

 photo Oil062014-2_zps187c496f.jpg

Figure 3 applies the Hubbert Linearization analysis to the world (excluding the US) oil production.  As of 2013, the world (excluding the US) cumulative production of oil was 145 billion metric tons.  The linear trend from 1995 to 2013 indicates the ultimately recoverable amount to be 309 billion metric tons.  Regression R-square is 0.964.

 photo Oil062014-3_zps1ef84a1c.jpg

Figure 4 shows the world (excluding the US) historical and projected oil production from 1950 to 2050.  The world (excluding the US) oil production is projected to peak in 2016, with a production level of 3,758 million metric tons.

 photo Oil062014-4_zps356b6e6a.jpg

Figure 5 shows the world historical and projected oil production.  The projected world oil production is the sum of the projected world (excluding the US) oil production and the projected US oil production.  World oil production is projected to peak in 2016, with a production level of 4,297 million metric tons.

 photo Oil062014-5_zpsbf13044a.jpg

Natural Gas

According to BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014, world natural gas consumption reached 3,348 billion cubic meters (3,020 million metric tons of oil-equivalent) in 2013, 1.4 percent higher than world natural gas consumption in 2012.  In 2013, natural gas consumption accounted for 23.7 percent of the world primary energy consumption.

World natural gas production reached 3,391 billion cubic meters (3,060 million metric tons of oil-equivalent) in 2013, 1.1 percent higher than world natural gas production in 2012.  Figure 6 shows natural gas production by the world’s five largest natural gas producers from 1970 to 2013.

 photo NaturalGas062014-1_zpsc1cf0271.jpgAs of 2013, world “proved” natural reserves stood at 186 trillion cubic meters, 0.2 percent higher than the “proved” natural gas reserves in 2012.

In recent years, the US natural gas production has surged due to the “shale gas” boom.  The US is the world’s largest natural gas producer, accounting for 20.5 percent of the world total production.  Figure 7 shows the historical and projected US natural gas production from 1950 to 2050.  The projection is based on the reference case scenario for the US natural gas production from 2011 to 2040 projected by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), extended to 2050 based on the trend from 2031 to 2040.  Based on the EIA projection, the US natural gas production will not peak before 2050.

 photo NaturalGas062014-2_zpsbbf85b41.jpg

Figure 8 applies the Hubbert Linearization analysis to the world (excluding the US) natural gas production.  As of 2013, the world (excluding the US) cumulative production of natural gas was 67 billion metric tons of oil-equivalent.  The linear trend from 1982 to 2013 indicates the ultimately recoverable amount to be 203 billion metric tons.  Regression R-square is 0.859.

 photo NaturalGas062014-3_zps82c080a7.jpg

Figure 9 shows the world (excluding the US) historical and projected natural gas production from 1960 to 2050.  The world (excluding the US) natural gas production is projected to peak in 2027, with a production level of 2,786 million metric tons of oil-equivalent.

 photo NaturalGas062014-4_zps999443c0.jpg

Figure 10 shows the world historical and projected natural gas production.  The projected world natural gas production is the sum of the projected world (excluding the US) natural gas production and the projected US natural gas production.  World natural gas production is projected to peak in 2029, with a production level of 3,667 million metric tons of oil-equivalent.

 photo NaturalGas062014-5_zps955ac99e.jpg

Coal

According to BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014, world coal consumption reached 3,827 million metric tons of oil-equivalent in 2013, 3.0 percent higher than world coal consumption in 2012.  In 2013, coal consumption accounted for 30.1 percent of the world primary energy consumption.

World coal production reached 7,896 million metric tons (3,881 million metric tons of oil-equivalent) in 2013, 0.8 percent higher than world coal production in 2012.  Figure 11 shows coal production by the world’s five largest coal producers from 1981 to 2013.

 photo Coal062014-1_zps13c6efd8.jpg

As of 2013, world coal reserves stood at 892 billion metric tons, 3.6 percent higher than the coal reserves in 2012.  The total increase in coal reserves by about 31 billion metric tons can be accounted for by the upward adjustment of reserves by Indonesia (an increase by 22 billion metric tons), Turkey (an increase by 6 billion metric tons), and Brazil (an increase by 2 billion metric tons).

China is the world’s largest coal producer, accounting for 47.4 percent of the world total production.  For many years, the BP Statistical Review of World Energy has reported China’s coal reserves to be 114.5 billion metric tons without update.  According to China’s Ministry of Land and Natural Resources, China’s coal “reserve base” was 230 billion metric tons as of 2012.  China’s cumulative coal production from 1896 to 2013 was 66 billion metric tons.  I assume that China’s ultimately recoverable coal resources will be 300 billion metric tons.

Figure 12 shows China’s historical and projected coal production from 1900 to 2100. China’s coal production is projected to peak in 2031, with a production level of 5,383 million metric tons.

 photo Coal062014-2_zps1d65f594.jpg

Figure 13 applies the Hubbert Linearization analysis to the world (excluding China) coal production.  The historical trajectory of the world (excluding China) coal production was complicated by the collapse of the Soviet Union, which led to drastic declines of coal production in the 1990s.  A direct application of linear trend from 1950 to 2013 results in projected production levels significantly lower than the observed production levels for recent years.  A linear trend from 1950 to 1996 is used instead, yielding projected production levels similar to observed production levels for recent years.

 photo Coal062014-3_zps2298cfce.jpg

As of 2013, the world (excluding China) cumulative production of coal was 275 billion metric tons. The linear trend from 1950 to 1996 indicates the ultimately recoverable amount to be 736 billion metric tons.  Regression R-square is 0.626.

Figure 14 shows the world (excluding China) historical and projected coal production from 1900 to 2100.  The world (excluding China) coal production is projected to peak in 2035, with a production level of 4,551 million metric tons.

 photo Coal062014-4_zps0ed158fa.jpg

Figure 15 shows the world historical and projected coal production.  The projected world coal production is the sum of the projected world (excluding China) coal production and China’s projected coal production.  World coal production is projected to peak in 2031, with a production level of 9,922 million metric tons.

 photo Coal062014-5_zpsc5240e66.jpg

 

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122 Responses to World Energy 2014-2050 (Part 1)

  1. CaveBio says:

    Hello everyone,

    A little off topic from this thread but:

    “Hormone-disrupting activity of fracking chemicals worse than initially found”

    Many chemicals used in hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, can disrupt not only the human body’s reproductive hormones but also the glucocorticoid and thyroid hormone receptors, which are necessary to maintain good health, a new study finds.

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/06/140623103939.htm

    • The Wet One says:

      Meh. Who needs a world where men are men and women are women anyways? We all know that women are the fairer, gentler, kinder and better sex, so we might as well all be women. Right?

      Just a little snark to go with your coffee on a Tuesday morning! :-)

  2. Perk Earl says:

    Ron, per your graphs showing peak coal not occurring until 2031, the following link has information about the climate impact of using much of the remaining coal reserves.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/mobile/science/nature/7789249.stm

    Climate outcome ‘hangs on coal’

    “Clearly, to address the climate issue we have to address the coal issue,” Professor Caldeira told BBC News.

    A new analysis presented here puts the total available global coal reserves at 662 billion tonnes.

    “There is far more than enough currently useable coal and other fossil fuels to push us past the threshold beyond which we would not want to go with the climate,” Dr Kharecha said.

    • Watcher says:

      What are the chances you’ll ever hear in a global warming fundraiser . . . a guy get up and say

      “We’re already past the point of no return and human extinction from global warming is inevitable regardless of any action taken.”

      • cytochromeC says:

        Kingsnorth does that.
        However he is not asking for money.

      • Old farmer mac says:

        I spend most of my free time these days poking into such subjects as climate and the future of humanity and I cannot find any good reasons to think that humanity will become extinct as the DIRECT result of climate change or scraping the bottom of the fossil fuel barrel in terms of current consumption levels.

        We are incredibly adaptable and the world is a very large place.Some parts of it will still support us even with a runaway greenhouse climate.These places may be pretty far north or south or maybe in the highest mountains in more lower latitudes and small in extent.

        But ten thousand individuals are enough to eventually repopulate the world.And that ten thousand will have an unbelievable treasure trove of stuff the rest of us leave behind to help them along.

        Synthetic fabrics are generally very resistant to rot and will last indefinitely if out of the sun.Clothing made out of such fabric would be easily found for at least a century after a collapse.

        Just one stainless steel dinner knife that could be sharpened on a stone and thus made into a spear point would have been worth a couple of virgin brides in the ancient world.Axes and other basic wood working tools are still very common and can last for centuries.

        Survivors of collapse are not going to have to face a non technological future naked and without tools or shelter. A well built house with metal or slate roof will stand for a century even if totally unoccupied with zero maintenance and there are a lot of such houses all over these days.Ditto industrial buildings that are all metal and masonry.

        Now indirect or secondary effects are a different matter altogether.WWIII nuclear or biological or both COULD finish us off without a doubt.

        Even a fast spreading and generally fatal man made plague would probably burn itself out before reaching every corner of the world.

        But there won’t be very many of us around (compared to now) a couple of centuries down the road barring some incredibly good luck.

        WWIII is in my estimation eventually inevitable and will inevitably be nuclear and most likely biological as well.

        Countries that find themselves existentially threatened will arm themselves as best they can given their resources and the life sciences are marching right along.

        In a couple more decades any good sized university will probably have enough people on the payroll to create a bioweapon as easily as a bunch of engineers can build a newly designed power plant or ship.

        Even after considering the down side possibilities I think the odds of our survival as a species are at least better than even to good simply because we are so widely dispersed and adaptable.

    • Anon says:

      Well, coal is the issue. Best evidence is that oil consumption is going to get a much harsher cap than anything that has been seriously proposed dropped on it by geology and mathematics.

      If you advanced that world transportation fuel consumption needed to be capped by 2016 and subsequently reduced several % per year, even most of the far out there greens would laugh out of the room. Brutal and infeasible.

      That said, well, all growth from 2008-present has been US shale and US shale isn’t going to keep running that much longer…

    • Earl, they are not my graphs. This is a guest post by Political Economist. They are his graphs.

  3. ~ Yearbook ~

    Pictures of pasts
    Fading with time
    Like promises
    Of hopeful futures

    Where have we gone…

    Look us up
    If only in our thoughts
    In memories reborn of
    Paper and ink

    What have we become…

    Questions for ourselves
    Answers worn with age
    Like the dusty old annuals
    Whose stories dissolve
    As faculties fail
    With each passing term

    Look us up
    If only in our thoughts
    In memories reborn of
    Paper and ink

    ~ CM, 1991

  4. aws. says:

    Downeast LNG Gets Back Up With Bidirectional Project

    Joe Fisher, Natural Gas Intelligence, June 20, 2014 (free 7 day trial)

    The Downeast LNG import terminal, which has been long-planned for Washington County, ME, has come back to life as a bidirectional liquefied natural gas (LNG) import/export project, its backer said Friday.
    —-
    “It’s probably counter-intuitive,” Girdis told NGI. “I know some people are saying, ‘Wait, why would you export LNG from Maine? It’s not a supply region.’”
    —-
    As for the downsized regasification capacity, why have it at all in a shale gas and export world? Girdis said it’s a hedge because the market is unpredictable, as anyone who remembers the pre-shale days will admit.

    “We don’t know what the future is,” he said. “Right now, the future’s looking like it’s a solely export-oriented project.” But even a remote possibility of wanting regas capability, even if it’s 20 years out, means it’s better to get it in the project now than to have to go back to FERC for it later, he said.

    100 years of supply… now down to 20 years?

    One doesn’t make a re-gasification investment, for import, with an expectation of only starting to see revenue in twenty years… do they?

  5. B says:

    U.S. Ruling Loosens Four-Decade Ban On Oil Exports (from Wall Street Journal; for non-subscriber access, Google the headline and follow the link to the article)

    In separate rulings that haven’t been announced, the Commerce Department gave Pioneer Natural Resources Co. and Enterprise Products Partners LP permission to ship a type of ultralight oil known as condensate to foreign buyers. The buyers could turn the oil into gasoline, jet fuel and diesel.

    The shipments could begin as soon as August and are likely to be small, people familiar with the matter said. It isn’t clear how much oil the two companies are allowed to export under the rulings, which were issued since the start of this year. The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security approved the moves using a process known as a private ruling.

    For now, the rulings apply narrowly to the two companies, which said they sought permission to export processed condensate from south Texas’ Eagle Ford Shale formation. The government’s approval is likely to encourage similar requests from other companies, and the Commerce Department is working on industrywide guidelines that could make it even easier for companies to sell U.S. oil abroad….

    The private rulings by the Commerce Department define some ultralight oil as fuel after it has been minimally processed, making the oil eligible for sale outside the U.S. The Brookings Institution estimates that as much as 700,000 barrels of ultralight oil per day could be exported starting next year.

    Eventually, the exemption could grow to a substantial portion of the three million barrels a day of oil that energy companies are pumping from shale, industry experts say. From 2011 to 2013, U.S. oil output soared by 1.8 million barrels a day, with 96% of new production in the form of light or ultralight oil, according to the Energy Information Administration.

    • B says:

      Oil From U.S. Fracking Is More Volatile Than Expected (The backstory from the Wall Street Journal. This is something Watcher could have probably written.)

      Oil from North Dakota’s Bakken Shale field has already been identified as combustible by investigators looking into explosions that followed train derailments in the past year.

      But high gas levels also are affecting oil pumped from the Niobrara Shale in Colorado and the Eagle Ford Shale and Permian Basin in Texas, energy executives and experts say.

      Even the refineries reaping big profits from the new oil, which is known as ultralight, are starting to complain about how hard it is to handle with existing equipment. Some of what is being pumped isn’t even crude, but condensate: gas trapped underground that becomes a liquid on the surface.

      The federal government says 96% of the growth in production since 2011 is of light and ultralight oil and that is where growth will continue.

      The huge volume of this gassy new oil has created a glut, pushing prices to $10 or more below the level of traditional crude. Energy companies think they could get higher prices by sending the new oil abroad, which explains some of the push to lift a U.S. ban on exporting crude. Federal officials recently gave two companies permission to export condensate under certain circumstances.

      This new crude can act like a popped bottle of Champagne, says Sandy Fielden, an analyst with consulting firm RBN Energy. “If it’s very light, it froths over the top” of refinery units, he says. Many refiners “can’t manage that in their existing equipment.”…

      Refining executives complain that some ultralight liquid is getting mixed in with higher-price traditional crudes. Greg Garland, the chief executive of Phillips 66, told analysts recently that there was no question that “people are blending condensate” into West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, to try to pass it off as regular crude and get more money for it.

      That’s not to say that light crude isn’t worthwhile—as long refiners are prepared for it. Gulf Coast refiners used to import light crude but today they have replaced most of it with oil from U.S. shale. Some experts warn that without new equipment, refineries will soon run out of capacity for ultralight oil pumped in the U.S.

      Consultants at Bentek Energy forecast that without a change to U.S. export policy that allows oil to be exported, an oversupply of ultralight oil will drag the price of West Texas Intermediate to $80 a barrel by 2019 from $106 today—a level that would cause some companies to stop drilling.

      • Watcher says:

        “Greg Garland, the chief executive of Phillips 66, told analysts recently that there was no question that “people are blending condensate” into West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, to try to pass it off as regular crude and get more money for it.”

        That’s not some fringe blogger. That’s the CEO of Phillips 66 said that.

        What’s not laid out in that statement is potential impact on quoted production. We clearly don’t have any idea how much oil is coming out of the ground.

    • Watcher says:

      Commerce Dept spoke up late today to deny this story.

    • Toolpush says:

      If the export of condensate is allowed, but oil is not, then I can see the “recorded” amount of condensate rising rapidly, as all that borderline oil/condensate, suddenly gets the condensate label, rather than the oil label. All those light fractions in the those Bakken oil tank cars may just disappear. As Deep Throat said a long time ago, follow the money.

  6. Adam Ash says:

    ‘.as much as 700,000 barrels of ultralight oil per day could be exported starting next year.
    Eventually, the exemption could grow to a substantial portion of the three million barrels a day of oil that energy companies are pumping from shale,’

    In a finite world all that means is the poor old US of A has to IMPORT three million barrels a day more to sustain it’s internal consumption. Dumb, but not surprising.

  7. Jeju-islander says:

    The chances of Iraq increasing its oil production in the near future seem to be increasingly remote.
    Iraq’s Oil Ministry announced last Wednesday that it has postponed indefinitely the bidding round for the 300,000 barrel per day (bpd) Nassiriya oil field and refinery project, which was set to take place on Thursday.
    If you look at the map you will that Nassiriya is in the supposedly safe Southern zone of Iraq.

    Also the Baiji refinery may finally have fallen, But perhaps not see http://www.iraqoilreport.com/security/energy-sector/baiji-refinery-nearly-falls-insurgents-12569/

  8. Euan Mearns says:

    ISIS, Iraq, Kurdistan and Oil

    The map taken from a May 2014 Genel presentation surprised me since borders seem in the process of being redrawn. The semi-autonomous region is the green area surrounding Erbil. The grey area is Kurdish territory that until recently was part of Iraq. The recent capture of Kirkuk by the Peshmerga gives a clear sign of Kurdish intentions. The area is of immense regional importance, not just for its oil reserves and production but for its pipelines that cross into Turkey at a very narrow point of mutual Iraq – Turkey border.

    and Kunstler writes:

    It all happened pretty quickly last week, but in case you haven’t noticed, Humpty Dumpty fell off the wall over there. The bonehead American news media affects to be too stunned to even ask the pertinent questions, starting with: is that all it took to undo eight years and — what? — maybe two trillion dollars in US-sponsored nation-building? Oh, plus 4,000 US dead and 50,000 wounded. So, my question would be: when do the political recriminations kick in? Pretty soon, I reckon, and when they do, expect them to be fiercely perverse. The theme of who lost Iraq? may cost more than who lost Vietnam?

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