World Coal 2018-2050: World Energy Annual Report (Part 4)

A Guest Post by Dr. Minqi Li, Professor

Department of Economics, University of Utah
E-mail: minqi.li@economics.utah.edu
September 2018

This is Part 4 of the World Energy Annual Report in 2018. This part of the Annual Report provides updated analysis of world coal production and consumption, evaluates the future prospect of world coal supply and considers the implications of peak coal production for global economic growth.

This report uses Hubbert linearization to evaluate a region’s ultimately recoverable coal resources where a Hubbert linear trend can be meaningfully established, that is, where a clear downward trend of the annual production to cumulative production ratios can be identified and has been established for at least several years. Otherwise, this report uses alternative sources to establish a region’s ultimately recoverable coal resources, such as official reserves, official projections, or estimates made by energy research institutions.

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Figure 14 World Historical and Projected Coal Production, 1950-2050

Figures are placed at the end of each section. Read More

The Energy Transition

by Dennis Coyne

(note that an Open Thread has recently been published for Petroleum)

I expect World Fossil fuel output to peak in 2025. If the World economy continues to grow in the future, a gap between Energy produced from all sources (including non-fossil fuels) and the demand for Energy will grow over time. If the gap between energy demand and energy supply is not filled by growth in non-fossil fuel energy sources there must be lower demand for energy due to reduced economic growth rates.

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