GOM Production and Other News

Not much happening on the Peak Oil front these days. I checked out the BSEE Gulf of Mexico production. Data is in kb/d with the last data point September 2013.GOM Production

Average production from the GOM has been relatively flat for the last two and one half years at about 1.260 million barrels per day. The arrow marks April 2010, the month of the Deepwater Horizon disaster.

The big deepwater plays continue to decline. I guess they are bringing on other wells in order to keep production flat.

Atl+TH+Tahiti+BF

The above chart is combined liquids production of Atlantis, Thunder Horse, Tahiti and Blind Faith. The last data point is September 2013.

I found this chart while browsing the net yesterday. It was published in the Albany Tribune but they say it  is from the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook. I failed to locate it there however.

EIA Liquids Supply

It’s a little fuzzy because I had to enlarge it. But it clearly shows that without the US and Canada world oil production would be in decline. Even with Canada but without the US then world oil production would still be in decline. And notice the words under the chart. “Note: Almost all countries excluding Saudi Arabia are at full capacity…”

All countries excluding Saudi Arabia are at full capacity. Saudi might produce half a million barrels per day more, perhaps less.

This chart I did find in the December Short-Term Energy Outlook, link above. It is a bit clearer. This chart clearly shows that in 2013 the world would have been in steep decline were it not from increasing production in North America.

EIA World Crude Growth

Notice that they were expecting Russia and the Caspian, (Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan), to increase slightly in 2013, they did, but are expecting them to slightly decline in 2014. That will be interesting to watch.

Something else I came across yesterday that I would like to share with you. It is also from the EIA: Shale oil and shale gas resources are globally abundant

EIA Shale Reserves

3.357 trillion barrels of “technically” recoverable oil with shale oil 10% of that total! All that oil and everyone, with the possible exception of Saudi Arabia, is producing flat out. That is over 100 years worth at current consumption rates. Is that a joke or what?

Note: The EIA still has not published their International Energy Statistics, the report of every nation’s oil production. They are almost two months behind. The last report that came out in November had production numbers only through July 2013. When, or perhaps I should say if, the report does come out I will have a post on it and also update the Non-OPEC Charts page. The OPEC MOMR is due out the 16th with OPEC production numbers through December.

EDIT: Check out this article: Natural plunge in Iran’s oil output

Based on a report which was published by Iran’s Majlis (Parliament) Research Center in October 2009, Iran’s production capacity annually declines by an average of 10 per cent…

EIA also reported in March that Iran’s oil output capacity annually declines by an average of 8 to 13 per cent.
EIA’s latest report published on Jan.7 shows that not only Iran has failed to compensate for its natural production decline by inaugurating new oilfields and using new production methods, but also the country’s natural production decline has exceeded previous estimations

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44 Responses to GOM Production and Other News

  1. Verwimp says:

    Maersk, one of the worlds biggest ship owning companies sold its oil tanker fleet to the Belgian company Euronav. A transaction of 750.000.000 EURO. Why? Does Maersk know about Export Land Model, and Euronav does not?

    “The outlook for the large crude tanker market has improved significantly over the last months indicating a resurgence of demand and an improved near term outlook,” Euronav said.

    So they are talking abouth “months”.

    http://www.seatrade-global.com/news/asia/maersk-tankers-sells-vlcc-fleet-for-$980m-to-euronav.html

    • Watcher says:

      A war between Japan and China puts those at risk, and Lloyds probably will raise that risk by invoking war clauses.

      I applaud this move by Maersk. Not a good business to be in.

      • old farmer mac says:

        I think there is a real possibility of a war within the foreseeable future in the Far East but that the risk of it is very small for now, barring unfortunate accidents.

        The owners of these giant ships, collectively, have been losing their shirts off and on for the last decade.

        Apparently there really is free market in shipping oil, and the folks who own tankers are in a situation similar to that of farmers.

        A modest amount of excess capacity in such a market can send prices to rock bottom and the market seems to be glutted with large crude carrier capacity over the last few years.

        I didn’t save links, but I remember reading about shipyards having tanker orders cancelled and collecting big penalties from the buyers and that sort of thing.

    • Ert says:

      Interesting & would make sense.

      Due to fracking US Domestic Oil imports went down from approx. 11 mb/d to 7 md/d. Europes oil consumption is declining and sluggish at best – reducing its total oil imports, especially because the € periphery is (currently) toast.

      China’s car sales in December 2013 jumped +21,47% up (total 2013 sales in comparison to 2012 was +15,71%) and their oil-import bill grew to 219,7 billion $ in 2013 (or 5,6 mb/d).

      Since I would assume that china has enough tankers on their own and under their own flag – it means that china does their thing – and the rest of the OECD world restricts their imports (with Japan as exception due to Fukushima).

  2. old farmer mac says:

    Here is another link to an article about the possibility of the crude export ban being lifted. This one goes into a good bit of detail.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/01/08/u-s-oil-exports-have-been-banned-for-40-years-is-it-time-for-that-to-change/?

  3. aws. says:

    Only 1 of 9,136 Recent Peer-Reviewed Authors Rejects Global Warming

    Only one article, by a single author in the Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences, rejected man-made global warming.

    A clue to the author’s motivation comes on the first page of the article, where he writes,”The switch of world powers first to decreasing the use of fossil fuel and then to carbon-free energy within the framework of the Kyoto Protocol may lead to economic collapse for Russia as a consequence of the reduction and, probably, even loss of the possibility to sell oil and natural gas on the world market.”

  4. Canabuck says:

    Re: China growth to the rescue.

    For those who believe that Chinese growth will solve all of the world’s problems, consider the following:
    Chinese Debt

    Read between the lines, and one finds that the growth of debt is around 13% of GDP per year.
    It currently stands at 56%. So, in another 4 years, China will be at 100% debt-to-GDP, and then there will be problems.

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