EIA’s International Energy Statistics Updated

The EIA has finally updated their International Energy Statistics. They were a month behind so they caught up by updating two months of data. The last update had data through October. This update has the data through December 2013. They also updated their annual data page.

If you click on the link, then mouse over “Petroleum, Production” and click, you will get “Total Oil Supply”. That data is everything including ethanol, biodiesel, NGLs and even refinery process gain. I never use that data. After that page comes I go to the box labeled “Total Oil Supply” then click on the down arrow, then click on “Crude Oil including Lease Condensate” That is the data I use, that is all I use.

World Yearly

From the annual data I found total World C+C was up a mere 167 kb/d. US production was up 967 kb/d. That means that the World less USA was down 800 kb/d.

I have been following Russia pretty close on their website CDU TEK.

Russia CDU TEK

The data through December is from the EIA. The last four months, through April, I gleaned from the Russian website. Their data is daily in tons per day. I had to convert it and average it into monthly data but it is pretty close. Also, because the data on the above chart is non-zero based the increase appears greater than it really is. The increase averages out to be about one hundred thousand barrels per year.

I don’t know what the anomaly was in November. The JODI data does not show that but actually shows a peak in November 2013 above December.

Everyone has been expecting Russia to peak for several years. But their production has just kept inching up a little each year. This report is from five years ago: Alex Burgansky: Russian Oil and Gas Industry Surprises Analysts. Requires registration.

There are plenty of projects in Russia, both, new projects and existing brownfield projects. Russia is a very mature producer. If you exclude all the drilling activity taking place every year, then Russian organic decline in production is close to 19%. To compensate for that organic decline, Russia drills somewhere between 5,000 and 6,000 wells every year.

 This year, as I said before, some people expected production to collapse. We certainly never thought it would collapse, but we did think it would decline. Instead it’s actually growing as a result of benefits from past investments in the new fields coming on stream this year. But we’re simply running out of the pipeline of these new fields. Therefore, next year there will be a lot fewer fields coming on stream; in the absence of new incentives to put more money to work to grow Russian oil production, it will naturally start declining, with organic decline rates of around 19% and growing.


Russia was able to keep production growing with a massive infill drilling program and new fields in Eastern Siberia, primarily Vankor. But Vankor, the largest find in Russia in 25 years at an ERR of 3.8 billion barrels, came on line in 2009 and has almost reached peak production. It is expected to produce 428,000 bpd this year and top out at 462,000 bpd in 2016. 

Russia showed declines in each of the first four months of this year. Has the decline of Russian oil production finally arrived?

Canada

The biggest gainer in the last two months was Canada, up 487 kb/d since October.

United States

The USA was up 154 kb/d in the last two months and had a decline of 77 kb/d in December.

North Sea

The North Sea, primarily Norway and the United Kingdom, showed a surprising increase in November and December. Norway expects their decline to slow this year. We shall see.

Don’t miss this one: Total SA: Peak Oil Is Catching up to Big Oil

Sometimes, falling free cash flow is a short-term issue. Such was the case after the 2008 oil crash. Oil prices fell, and as a result free cash flow fell as well.

The current downturn is different. Oil prices have remained relatively stable and yet free cash flow is falling. The reason for this change is simple. Capital expenditures (capex) are rising at a rate far above revenue, thus cutting free cash flow.

Motly Fool

And revenue is falling because production is falling.

I have also updated the Non-OPEC Charts page with the data through December 2013.

And I also updated the World Crude Oil Production by Geographical Area page.

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207 Responses to EIA’s International Energy Statistics Updated

  1. One quote from the provided link, a long paper, and a good read.

    Quote:

    In connection with Dr. Hoel’s report…note the unusually warm summer in Arctic Norway and observations of Capt. Martin Ingebrigtsen, who sailed the eastern Arctic for 54 years past. He first noted warmer conditions in 1918, since that time it has steadily gotten warmer, to-day the Arctic of that region is not recognizable as the same region of 1868 to 1917.

    http://judithcurry.com/2013/04/10/historic-variations-in-arctic-sea-ice-part-ii-1920-1950

    Arctic sea ice waxes and wanes, the Pacific and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillations are the culprits, the sun is the instigator, the outside agitator and the molten core keeps belching gases, etc.

    I am all for global warming, a world of cold will not be survivable.

    • Doug Leighton says:

      Ronald,

      The earth’s core doesn’t belch anything. Burning coal, oil and gas belch a lot of CO2 and a warming planet releases a lot of loosely stored gas (mainly methane). You may like it warm but so do forest fires — more belching. My wife is Norwegian, quite a smart girl (PhD, mathematical physics) and she is extremely concerned by the warming you’re so fond of, because it may destroy the planet we’ve come to love — including Norway. Its true that volcanoes belch a lot of stuff from time to time, the really serious ones are capable of really serious results. Really serious belching!

      Doug

      • I realize I oversimplified. A molten core the size of the moon is going to generate heat, that heat will vaporize anything as the heat makes its way through the mantle in the form of magma.

        A volcanic eruption like that of Tambora will cause climate change like what happened in 1816, the ‘year of no summer’.

        The earth’s molten core is the culprit there.

      • Coolreit says:

        Maybe, your wife need to study the science at http://wattsupwiththat.com/

        • Doug Leighton says:

          Coolreit,

          Then you suggest it. Even as an Old Dude, I still value my manhood.

          Doug

        • Dennis Coyne says:

          Or she could try
          real climate or context earth

          • Dennis Coyne says:

            Hi Doug,

            I just re-read your post to Ronald, I am guessing that your wife would not take too seriously the material at Watt’s blog, and she probably knows the stuff at real climate already, she might find context earth interesting because she has the math skills to understand it.

            • Doug Leighton says:

              Hi Dennis,

              Thanks for the leg up on context earth, will pass it on. In fact, like most intelligent people, my wife seems more concerned about leaving a mess for grandchildren rather than perusing details about global issues. Sometimes I think she defines “global” in terms of quark-gluon plasma or matter plus anti matter; ignoring our old blue planet: Naturally leaving me, man-of-the-house, to deal with the “really important stuff”. Now I didn’t actually say that, it just appears that way, out of context.

              Doug

  2. Tim E. says:

    Summed up:

    Resource scarcity marks the end of the 20th. Century. The formerly almighty convertible Dollar is reduced to meaningless promises and the ability to coerce the productive. Yields diminish while demands increase.

    The 21st. Century will be marked by Resource Wars.

    On August 15, 1971, President Nixon announced on TV 3 dramatic changes in economic policy. He imposed a wage-price freeze. He ended the Bretton Woods international monetary system. And he imposed a temporary surcharge (tariff) on all imports.

    • Tim E. says:

      Thanks to Jay Hanson:

      In a way, the world-view of the party imposed itself most successfully on the people incapable of understanding it. They could be made to accept the most flagrant violations of reality, because they never fully grasped the enormity of what was demanded of them, and were not sufficiently interested in public events to notice what was happening. By lack of understanding, they remained sane. They simply swallowed everything, and what they swallowed did them no harm, because it left no residue behind, just like a grain of corn will pass undigested through the body of a bird. —George Orwell, 1984

      NEW ECOLOGICAL UNDERSTANDINGS

      CIRCUMSTANCE: The Age of Exuberance is over, population has already overshot carrying capacity, and prodigal Homo sapiens has drawn down the world’s savings deposits.

      CONSEQUENCE: All forms of human organization and behavior that are based on the assumption of limitlessness must change to forms that accord with finite limits.

      The Industrial Revolution made us precariously dependent on nature’s dwindling legacy of non-renewable resources, even though we did not at first recognize this fact. Many major events of modern history were unforeseen results of actions taken with inadequate awareness of ecological mechanisms. Peoples and governments never intended some of the outcomes their actions would incur.

  3. Dennis Coyne says:

    Slide 18 from Kopits presentation below.

    I interpret this slide as:
    1. $3.5 trillion spent on exploration and production(E+P) of oil and gas since 2005.

    2.$2.5 trillion spent on E+P of oil since 2005 (2006 to 2013)

    3. $1.5 trillion spent on E+P of oil from 1998 to 2005.

    Ron seems to interpret the slide differently.

    Link to presentation (it is slide 18 that we are discussing) below:

    http://energypolicy.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/energy/Kopits%20-%20Oil%20and%20Economic%20Growth%20%28SIPA%2C%202014%29%20-%20Presentation%20Version%5B1%5D.pdf

    • Dave Ranning says:

      “So we are in the grips of what Charles Hugh Smith calls the ‘Keynesian Cargo Cult’, chanting that if we just provide more stimulus to the banks, everything will get back to normal.”

      • Jeffrey J. Brown says:

        As noted up the thread, as trillions of dollars were spent by the global oil industry after 2005 and as annual Brent crude oil prices doubled from $55 in 2005 to the $110 range from 2011 on, I estimate that global crude oil production* (excluding lease condensate) averaged about 65 mbpd for 2006 to 2013 inclusive, versus about 67 mbpd in 2005.

        As I have noted, I think that developed net oil importing countries have been going heavily into debt, from real creditors and from central banks, trying to keep their “wants” based economies going, as global oil prices doubled, based on the premise that we will soon be back to cheap, plentiful supplies of crude oil.

        *45 or lower API gravity crude oil

        • Dennis Coyne says:

          Hi Jeff,

          1998-2005 spending 1.5 trillion(1.82 trillion in 2008 $)

          2006-2013 spending 2.5 trillion (2008 $)

          If we assume 7% average decline when no new wells are added and assume any increase from that level is from new wells (for example if 30 billion barrels were produced last year and 30 billion this year, then 2.1 billion must have been added to make up for the 2.1 billion decline in existing wells from last year).

          From that logic

          new production 1998-2005 was 16.1 BBO
          new production 2006-2013 was 15.1 BBO

          The extra capital spending is partly due to inflation, partly due to increased costs above the rate of inflation due to high demand for oil services, and partly due to the lack of cheap places to drill for oil. There is no doubt that the easy oil has already been developed.

          Note that when we adjust for inflation (it is unclear if Kopits did that or not, but if he did not) the 1998 to 2005 spending increases to 1.82 trillion dollars (2008 $, which is the average of the 2005-2013 period).

  4. SuddenDebt says:

    ….I think that developed net oil importing countries have been going heavily into debt, from real creditors and from central banks, trying to keep their “wants” based economies going,

    This I believe hits the proverbial nail firmly on its head.
    So what happens when credit dries up, debt deleveraging sets in and budgets needs to be balanced (no more deficit spending)?
    Oil prices are likely to decline as demand wanes, sadly this will create a false impression that “we are awash with oil” as most will point to the lower price.

    • Dennis Coyne says:

      It will be quite a while until we see that happen, currently OECD government debt to GDP is about 107% up from 80% in 2008.

      Japan is up to 200% and has been over 100% for years.

      When buying a home 3 to 1 debt to income is fine.

      • SuddenDebt says:

        “It will be quite a while until we see that happen, currently OECD government debt to GDP is about 107% up from 80% in 2008.”

        There is something called interest rates and low interest rates (or rather central banks’ interest rate suppression) allowed governments, companies and households to continue to take on more debt.
        Higher interest rates will make it harder for everyone to service their debts.
        The world is not only OECD, it is also about Brazil and China who continued going deeper into debt as OECD eased off after 2008. The effects from China’s credit expansion are now starting to show.

    • Old farmer mac says:

      Huge amounts of personal and business debt will be written off.

      Just about all public debts will be paid but only in part.

      The banking system as we know it will fail spectacularly but that does not mean the end of public credit- which is basically what deficit financing is all about.

      Anti renewable advocates cannot think or refuse to think outside the box involving the grid and load balancing.It never occurs to them that when it becomes necessary the changes necessary to allow the grid to accommodate huge amounts of intermittent renewable energy will be made.These changes will no doubt be very expensive but they will be mandated by government state and federal regardless of the cost once the cost of coal and gas go high enough.The utilities will be allowed to recoup the cost. The share of the cost that will be borne by the renewables industry is debatable but no doubt the wind and solar producers will eventually have to pay some sort of tax to cover part of the cost of upgrading the grid to handle large renewable inputs.

      Likewise once the current banking system is on its knees and breathing its last it will be tossed on the trash heap of history and a new system put in place.

      IF the federal government cannot borrow money it can simply print it and no fxxking federal reserve system is necessary once congress repeals a few key laws and writes a few new ones.

      Somebody will decree that money is present in the Treasury sufficient to cover all expenses and it will be disbursed and accepted. The consequence of course will be massive and uncontrolled inflation and in the end this inflation will destroy the business as usual economy just as efficiently as a lack of credit.

      The difference is that printing money at will directly buys some time.
      A freezing and starving peasant in his final extremity burns such furniture as he has and eats his seed corn.

      By this means he postpones the final end.

      Inflation on the grand scale is baked into the cake but it there may be a period of deflation before the inflation card is played for keeps.

      Depending on the skill and luck we may buy a few months or a few decades of relative stability by inflating the hell out of our money.

      The process is already well under way and has been most of my life but people are generally too blind and stupid to see what they do not want to see.

      If you are holding money in a savings account or pension fund these days you are sure to lose your ass.There is almost nothing that really matters to your survival that is not increasing in price faster on average than the one or two percent interest you are collecting.

      The average pension funds stability is predicated on a totally unrealistic long term rate of return on investments in it and will not be able to meet its obligations.

      There is little reason to believe that Ford Motor Company for instance will be making big profits a decade from now but there are plenty of reasons to suspect Ford may not be making much at all.

      There are plenty of reasons to think most cities will not be able to pay their long term obligations as taxes keep on rising and businesses keep on packing up and leaving town.

      Demographics alone indicate the utter failure of growth of the welfare state involving free medical care old age checks and so forth. We are not having enough children to keep the pay as you go system alive much longer. It will have to contract barring miracles on the productivity front.

      So – a person who does not actually own a government debt instrument is never the less still the owner of government debt in the form of promised benefits -benefits he will collect only in part if at all.Quite a few people are going to die without collecting a dime from social security and medicare when the government raises the age of eligibility for instance by a year.

      • Doug Leighton says:

        Mac,

        I don’t see the problem: Last time I looked US unfunded liabilities was only about $138 trillion. Why can’t they just take a bit out of our pension fund? Or….unless our pension fund is in that $138 T . Maybe printing more money then…. Actually I don’t really understand much about this stuff but obviously the guys in charge will have a plan. Right?

        Doug

      • Dennis Coyne says:

        Hi Mac,

        Simple solution, payroll taxes not limited to first x dollars earned, but to all income.

        If that’s not enough include income from dividends and interest on social security tax.

        Laws can be changed to accommodate the baby boom, and in another 50 years there will not be many baby boomers alive.

        Banking system will only fail if the government fails, you seem to think this is not a possibility. FDIC insurance keeps bank runs from happening in the US.

        If you mean the shadow banking system, I agree that may be toast when another serious recession arrives.

  5. Dennis Coyne says:

    Hi doug,
    Source for unfunded liabilities?

    • Doug Leighton says:

      Dennis,

      U.S. National Debt Clock: Real Time. $128, 876 Million as of about now! I’m surprised that you asked. Lot’s of stuff on there!

      Doug

      • Doug Leighton says:

        NB: $138T was typo, should have been $128T. Sorry

      • Dennis Coyne says:

        Did you mean trillion? A lot of these debt sites are not well done, and tend to make worst case assumptions. Medical costs continue increasing exponentially, taxes never increase, etc.

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