Here I am again reporting on out of date US February oil production from the EIA April report after the world oil environment has been turned on its head. Fortunately the EIA also has some forward looking reports that make use of more current data to provide projections for a few months out. Also the EIA has a guesstimate for weekly oil output which certainly provides an indication of the direction of production over the next month. Also there are reports on rig counts that indicate activity in oil basins and provide clues on where oil output is going. Down, Down, Down.
Preparing this March post has been a surrealistic exercise. Here I am providing a January US production update when at a time, January, the world had no clue that it was going to be hit with a double Black Swan event in early March . There was a hint in January on the coming pandemic for those who were listening. However, there was no clue of the Shock and Awe attack that would be launched by SA after Putin and his Oily Oligarch friend Sechin made the wrong move in the world’s Oil Chess Game. Russia thought that they had SA in Check, instead Russia and the rest of world were End Played. Now, a way must be found out of this mess. Reports are circulating that Trump and Putin have been talking and that an OPEC + meeting will be convened shortly. Let’s hope adult’s come to the table.
The silver lining, if there is one, is that the world will need lower oil prices to come out of the current economic slowdown. The question is, if an agreement can be brokered between US, Russia and OPEC, “What will be the right price for oil for both the producers and the economy?
The irony here is that Trump will be holding meetings with oil company executives shortly to see how the US can help. In the meantime the NOPEC (No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act) bill keeps circulating within Congress. Interesting how the world, US positions and thinking, can be flipped upside down over night.
All of the oil production data for the US states comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply Monthly. In addition, information from other EIA offices is provided to project future US output. At the end, an estimate is made for the decline rate in the L48 conventional oil fields and an analysis of a few different EIA reports is undertaken.
The charts below are updated to October 2019 for the 10 largest US oil producing states (>100 kb/d).
U.S. oil output continued to increase in October 2019. Production reached a new high of 12,655 kb/d, an increase 171 kb/d over September and 55 kb/d higher than estimated by the December Monthly Energy Review (MER). However it is 93 kb/d lower than the 12,748 kb/d estimated in the December STEO report. This could be an indication that the January STEO report will again lower US production estimates for 2020.
The charts below are updated to September 2019 for the largest US oil producing states (>100 kb/d).
There continues to be much speculation and information pointing to a potential slowing of US oil production. However the latest production data from the EIA continues to point higher, albeit at a slower rate.
The charts below are primarily for the largest US oil producing states (>100 kb/d) and are updated to August 2019. If you are interested in additional states, let it be known.
Ron has asked if I would take over the monthly posts for USA oil production. I have tentatively agreed to do that. Let us all thank Ron for his work at tracking US production and for his insights. Ron will continue to monitor what’s happening with US production and provide his comments. He is not going away.
This is my first post on US production by state. If you spot any errors, please let me know and I will try to fix them.
