Tag: Peak Oil

Future Decline Rate of World Oil Output

D Coyne 269 Comments

A conservative model of future World Crude plus Condensate (C+C) output is presented below with an average decline rate of 2.8% from 2040 to 2110. From 1933 to 1972 World C+C output increased at an average annual rate of about 7.8% and after the oil shocks in the 1970s and 1980s from 1983 to 2016 output increased at 1.2%/year on average. The decrease in the rate of change in World output was 6.5% between the high growth period up to 1972 and the slower growth period up to 2016. My model projects continued 1.2% average annual growth in C+C output from 2022 to 2029 when the final peak in output is projected. The annual rate of decline gradually increases to above 2.5% by 2039 and is followed by steady decline at 2.8% for the next 70 years. The decrease in the rate of change in output from the earlier period from 1983 to 2029 (about 1.2%) to the period after 2039 is 4%. Chart has a log vertical axis to indicate rates of change in output.

Figure 1
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Gulf of Mexico update

Bob Meltz 122 Comments

Through 2021 the federal waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico (OCS) have cumulative production of 23.4 Bbo and 193 Tcf.  The deepwater (water depths > 1000’ as defined by BOEM) has produced 10.2 Bbo and 23.5 Tcf while the shelf has produced 13.2 Bbo and 169.5 Tcf.  From a BOE standpoint, the GOM has primarily been a gas province, and the bulk of that production has come from shelf fields.  While the shelf has produced more cumulative oil than deepwater, over 90% of current oil production comes from deepwater fields. 

First production from the OCS occurred in 1947.  First deepwater production was in 1979 from Shell’s Cognac field in 1022’ of water.  GOM oil production in December 2021 was 1.69 mmbopd as per BSEE.  As Ovi says in his monthly updates, if GOM were a state, it would be the 2nd leading oil producing state in the US, only behind Texas.

Brief history of GOM gas production

GOM gas production peaked in 1997 at 14.4 bcf/day and has been declining ever since.  Current gas production is about 2 bcf/day. 

Figure 1 – GOM gas production, with shelf and deepwater broken out.  Data from BOEM.

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