The future of tight oil output in the US will depend in large part on future development of Permian Basin resources in Texas and New Mexico. I have developed nine scenarios for future Permian basin tight oil output based on 3 levels of technically recoverable resources (TRR) and 3 different future oil price scenarios. These are summarized in the chart below.
A post by Ovi at peakoilbarrel
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All of the oil (C + C) production data for the US state charts comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply monthly PSM. After the production charts, an analysis of three EIA monthly reports that project future US production is provided. The charts below are updated to October 2020 for the 10 largest US oil producing states.
A Post by Ovi at peakoilbarrel . com
All of the oil production data for the US states comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply Monthly. In addition, information from other EIA offices is provided to project future US output. At the end, an estimate is made for the decline rate in the L48 conventional oil fields and an analysis of a few different EIA reports is undertaken.
The charts below are updated to October 2019 for the 10 largest US oil producing states (>100 kb/d).
U.S. oil output continued to increase in October 2019. Production reached a new high of 12,655 kb/d, an increase 171 kb/d over September and 55 kb/d higher than estimated by the December Monthly Energy Review (MER). However it is 93 kb/d lower than the 12,748 kb/d estimated in the December STEO report. This could be an indication that the January STEO report will again lower US production estimates for 2020.
Read MoreThis is a guest post by Ovi here.
All of the oil production data for the states comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply Monthly.
The charts below are updated to September 2019 for the largest US oil producing states (>100 kb/d).
There continues to be much speculation and information pointing to a potential slowing of US oil production. However the latest production data from the EIA continues to point higher, albeit at a slower rate.
Read MoreIn the discussion here I use the term net volume to refer to the volume of prospective rock that might be developed to produce tight oil. For each bench of a prospective tight oil play (Wolfcamp A would be one example of a bench) there is an area estimate (5733 thousand acres for Wolfcamp A of Delaware) and a success ratio (%) = 94.7, in the case of Wolfcamp A. Net acres are the total acres times the success ratio, for Wolfcamp A, 5429 thousand net acres. On average the Wolfcamp A of the Delaware basin is about 400 feet thick, so the net volume would be net acres times thickness or 2172 million acre-feet. An acre-foot is a volume that is one acre (44,000 square feet) by one foot thick or 44,000 cubic feet (or a box that is 1000 ft long by 44 feet wide by 1 foot high.)
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