Oil Production Is Going To Drop And Oil Prices Are Likely To Increase

Rystad Energy, an independent oil and gas consulting services and business intelligence data firm in Oslo, Norway, has online, a wealth of information concerning upstream oil production projects and costs. Some of it is a bit dated but some of their charts date from late 2015.

The two below Rystad charts were published by CNN Money on November 23, 2015.

Costs, Overall

This is overall or average cost, not marginal cost. It cost Canada $41 to produce a barrel of oil but only cost Russia $17.20. I guess that is why Canada is cutting back but Russia is not.

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The EIA Changes Data Collection Methods

EIA begins monthly survey-based reporting of U.S. crude oil production

With the release of today’s  Petroleum Supply Monthly, EIA is incorporating the first survey-based reporting of monthly U.S. crude oil production statistics. Today’s Petroleum Supply Monthly includes estimates for June 2015 crude oil production using new survey data for 13 states and the federal Gulf of Mexico, and revises figures previously reported for January through May 2015.

From the EIA’s Monthly Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production webpage.

Beginning with the June 2015 data, EIA is providing estimates for crude oil production (including lease condensate) based on data from the EIA-914 survey. Survey-based monthly production estimates starting with January 2015 are provided for Arkansas, California, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Utah, Wyoming, and the Federal Gulf of Mexico. For two states covered by the EIA-914—Oklahoma and West Virginia—and all remaining oil-producing states and areas not individually covered by the EIA-914, production estimates are based on the previous methodology (using lagged state data). When EIA completes its validation of Oklahoma and West Virginia data, estimates for these states will also be based on EIA-914 data. For all states and areas, production data prior to 2015 are estimates published in the Petroleum Supply Monthly. Later in 2015, EIA will report monthly crude oil production by API gravity category for the individually-surveyed EIA-914 states.

This is great news for those of us who have been complaining for years about the EIA’s poor and misleading data collection methods.Petroleum Supply Monthly

June C+C production, according to the Monthly Energy Review, was almost 9.6 million barrels per day. But the Petroleum Supply Monthly cuts that by 303,000 bpd. And they have production dropping by 316,000 barrels per day in the last two months, May and June.

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US Oil Production Finally Starting to Decline

There has been very little data to post about recently and as everyone should know by now, I post primarily about data. So if there is no data there is not much to post about. Also I have been very busy for the a week now and have checked in only a couple of times.

A few days ago a very racist post was posted on this blog. I completely overlooked it as I seldom scan the posts because I get an email for every post so I just read the posts in the emails. But when there is a guest post, as the one last week was, I get no emails, the guest poster gets them instead. Anyway I deleted the post and banned the poster. I also banned another poster because he accused me of deliberately letting the post stay up. That outraged me. It was the same thing as accusing me of such racism.

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World Oil Output Last 3 Years

The EIA publishes every possible energy stat for the USA and hardly anything for the rest of the world. Well, anything current for the rest of the world anyway. Their International Energy Statistics is already five full months behind and working on six. December 2014 is the last international oil production data we have.

Anyway during this lull in other data I decided to look at the last three years of international data, from December 2011 to December 2014. All data is in thousand barrels per day.Post 1

World C+C production was flat for most of 2012 and 2013 but in late 2013 production took off and has increased by about 3 million barrels per day above the average for 2012 and 2013. December C+C production was 79,300,000 BPD.

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