96 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum, September 8, 2021”

      1. That’s a realistic analysis:

        “ the average capacity factor of coal in the United States has fallen from 67% in 2010 to just 40% in 2020 – first because of competition with cheap gas from fracking, and now because of SWB. In the United Kingdom, coal capacity factor has collapsed even faster, from 58% in 2013 to just 8% by 2019.”

        The same is true in China: massive overbuilding by provincial authorities of unneeded coal capacity has caused coal capacity factors to crash dramatically.

  4. “Both China and India are now struggling with excess coal power capacity that is competing with declining costs and government mandates for lower-carbon alternatives. This means a growing number of coal plants are operating well below their designed utilisation rates, leading to less income than expected for operators. These excess coal plants risk becoming stranded assets, unable to earn an economic return on investment.

    The Indian government estimates 40GW of the country’s coal plants are financially stressed, including 25GW that have been completed without any power purchase commitments. This number may grow, as financial thinktank Carbon Tracker estimates nearly 30% of the country’s operating coal plants are more expensive to run than the lowest 2017 bids for solar power.

    State power company NTPC in July 2018 cited low renewable costs when it suspended plans for new coal. Overall, 695GW of proposed coal power capacity has been shelved or cancelled in India since 2010 – over three times its operating capacity of 219 GW.

    China is also dealing with excess coal plant capacity. From 2006 to mid-2018 China commissioned 70% (715GW) of the world’s new coal-fired capacity. That rapid expansion — coupled with the 2014–2016 spurt in provincial coal permitting — is now rubbing up against the country’s ambitious renewable goals. The average utilisation rate for thermal plants fell below 50% in 2015, where it has stayed, meaning Chinese power company profits from coal power are fast eroding.

    In response to the overcapacity problem, China’s 13th five-year plan caps total coal capacity at 1,100GW in 2020. Yet, even with the cap, the country is facing over 200GW of excess coal capacity, according to some estimates, with further coal plants representing potentially billions of dollars of wasted capital. The country needs to strengthen its coal plant restrictions and increase retirements to prevent further excess coal-fired capacity.”

    https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-peak-coal-is-getting-closer-latest-figures-show

    1. This is exactly what Tony Seba predicted several years ago. Fossil fuels are a stranded asset. We will rapidly move to fossil fuel free grid by 2030. SWB (Solar Wind Battery) is it.

    2. Nick G , on India let me give you some info which you will not find in the news .
      1. The production of electricity is mostly controlled by the state .NTPC mainly( NTPC Is National Thermal Power Corpn ) for your info .
      2, The distribution of electricity is mostly in the hands of the private sector . Also called discoms .
      3. The state forces the discoms to sell electricity to the consumers at a loss for political benefit.
      4 . The discoms can’t pay NTPC .
      5. NTPC can’t pay the coal mines .
      6. The coal mines are financially stressed .
      7 . End of story .
      There are a few private electricity producers example Adani but he is devolping a mine in Australia for his power plant in India . Crazy . Any way , Indian coal is powder coal not lump coal (also called anthracite )l and of extreme poor quality .India imports both coking coal ( steel manufacture ) and steam coal ( power plants ) from Australia , Indonesia and South Africa . Coal mining in India is a big source of corruption , political power , jobs etc . The discoms are having a problem in selling power even at a loss because industrial output has fallen by 35 % . As to NTPC saying that renewables were the reason , forget it . NTPC is a place for the political dead end bureaucrats//politicians land ( just like at IMF , WB , EU , ECB ) etc . They will shift the blame to save their cushy jobs and pensions in a country where unemployment is now 40% . Just putting the things in order .

      1. Yeah, India has a hard time reconciling it’s desire to insulate consumers from the cost of electricity, with it’s desire to actually produce electricity. Another big example of that is that power theft is a very big problem.

        Nevertheless, India also has the problem of falling coal plant utilization:

        “India’s coal plant load factor (PLF) fell to a record low level of 53% in 2020, while coal-fired generation fell and coal-fired capacity increased. Therefore, the current coal fleet is already running the risk of turning into loss-making stranded assets.”

        https://ember-climate.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/India-Peaking-Coal-Ember.pdf

  5. Chinese companies selling unneeded coal plants to developing countries represents a classic case of dumping. This was a familiar thing as far back as Marx, who thought that very roughly this kind of thing (falling profits at home, a need for new markets, etc) explained imperialism.

    These sleazy salesmen are selling their obsolete products to developing countries, who will be saddled with bad investments as wind and solar take the place of FF.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/06/china-is-massively-betting-on-coal-outside-its-shores–even-as-investment-falls-globally.html

    1. I don’t think Tesla will pull it off, not full autonomy just using cameras, not ever. The tolerance for error here is too low. One dead pedestrian and the approval for the system will likely get yanked. It’s not enough to be better than human drivers in aggregate.

      1. It seems that it is more of an AI issue than a camera vs Lidar question.
        Right now the input that directs cars comes from 2 medium resolution cameras mounted about 3 inches apart – your eyes. So my guess is that the data is available and it is more of a question of processing it.
        Rgds
        WP

        1. Can’t recall where I read it but my understanding is that depth perception from cameras does not work nearly as well as our eyes nor the lidar that waymo and others are using. Tesla’s advantage is its AI learning from millions of vehicles driving the same routes and contributing. Waymo is going the hi tech route with lidar and other sensors but can only ride on established routes. However keep in mind that waymo has access to google maps and the entire infrastructure surrounding that. My guess is they are both superior to human drivers already, HOWEVER, that’s not what people expect of robot drivers, they expect perfection…

          1. I know someone who had been heading up the Uber mapping software development a few years back. There were testing autonomous mode in San Fran.
            He said they were having trouble with sites such as like at the airport where one lane went up to arrivals and the other down to departures.
            Humans can handle that easily.
            It is hard to teach nuance.
            Maybe by now they have figured that out.

            1. We don’t yet have a computer that can do something that it’s not programed to do.

              And until we do we can’t have self driving cars or anything else that has to interact with unpredictable environments. As we can’t predict the unpredictable.

        2. The example I read is that the processor must be able to discern between a policeman waving the car on vs. a child chasing a ball …

          Ain’t gonna happen for quite some time.

  8. Reposted here.
    *************
    ‘Unfortunately, we still don’t have long enough EXTENSION CORDS for Trains, Boats, Barges, or Ships. But, who knows, maybe a bright enough engineer in here could figure that one out.’

    Why not capsule pipelines for transportation of physical goods? Basically, polymer lined steel capsules, maybe 1-2m in diameter, containing physical goods, with the capsules ballasted to be neutrally buoyant in water. These could be transported through water pipes, using electric power to pump the water, carrying the capsules along with the flow.

    Probably quite a slow means of transportation, but energy costs would be lower even than rail and energy can come from direct electric. The drag between the water and the wall of the pipe, scales with the square of velocity. Assuming that wind turbines provide the pumping power, flow speed would vary according to the square root of power, so fluctuating power would result in only modest changes in delivery times.

    Pipelines are the cheapest way of transporting bulk liquids. Using capsules, solid goods can be transported as well, without a drop of diesel. They would probably be best suited for shipping goods between nodes, serving a surrounding area. Short range electric or compressed air powered vehicles, with range of a few tens of km, could then be used to ship capsules from the node to the surrounding area and vise versa.

    The pipes themselves would probably be polymer lined concrete. Pipe runs should be as straight as possible to minimise friction losses and reduce capsule wear by collision with walls. Flow will probably be laminar.

    Capsules should be designed to allow them to fit onto rail and HGV trailers, such that they function as standardised container units.

    You could even run these pipelines under water, provided that capsules are strong enough to withstand compressive forces from the water head. It should therefore be possible to ship goods between continents, by trailing the pipes along sufficiently shallow areas of seabed. Pipelines could in this way reduce the need for container ships.

    1. Yes,

      It is a great idea to utilise pipelines better due to better insulation. It is also important to utilise the rail network better to be more electric/hybrid, and thereby to think about including the interior land especially when it comes to heavy transport. Personal transport is a small piece, or could be it, of the energy cake compared to the heavy lifting transportation. Rail transport depends on steel to a large degree, which is recyclable. The energy cost per kg moved is low for train transportation and even lower for sea transportation. So, to slow down everything in terms of speed and focus on more rail and sea transportation will probably make the energy transition bearable for a lifetime (for most of those following this blog?). And when it comes to coal powered electricity generation; it is increasingly be underutilized globally. What is the answer to the fluctuation of wind/solar electricity output? Maybe backup coal and natural gas based power stations? It does not seem too unreasonably, does it?

        1. Canals, among other problems, are very hard to electrify.

          I suspect rail would work much better. The right of way and track are almost entirely in place, it’s just a question of expanding capacity: raising bridge and tunnel heights to accommodate double height trains; improved signaling and communications; electrification;, etc.

          1. Yep, we need to get rail back to where it was in 1940 in the US.
            Then we can start catching up to the rest of the First World.

            1. Rail is good, and so are to mention canals, which are heavily used in Europe.
              Anyway, like a lot of transportation tech ideas, the scale is crucial.

      2. Electric rail transport is an established technology since the last 100 years.

        Every main line in Europe, Russia, China is full electric – only a few side tracks are driven by Diesel trains. It’s a USA special thing that train lines are not electric. The whole trans sibieran, as longest line in the world, is.
        Even in India a third of the railway net is already full electric.

        And for the side tracks they are developing battery trains here at the moment. They experimented with hydrogen, but tanking was too complicated. With battery they can recharge once the train reaches an main route, or in the final station where it reverses direction (and has a break as a time buffer).

    2. Using 2-meter diameter pipelines filled with flowing water to deliver goods is about the dumbest idea I have ever heard of. The cost of the pipeline and the land rights would be enormous. Not to mention the cost of the pumps and the cost of the maintenance would be prohibitive. The water would weigh far more than the cargo it carried. Pumping that much water over even the smallest hill, and there would be thousands of hills, would put an enormous strain on all those pumps. And where would you get all that water?

      Oh well, back to the drawing board.

      1. And yet this is the cheapest way of moving bulk liquids and about the most energy efficient. The pumps, pipe and land rights will all cost money, yes. Then again, roads and railways presumably cost money and need to be maintained and are constructed over land. The vehicles and diesel all cost money. Starting from a blank slate, constructing a transcontinental road or rail network would appear to be a daunting task. And yet it has happened.

        To assess the relative practicality of this idea, someone needs to do the arithmetic on cost, energy consumption, embodied energy and compare it to alternatives. Just maybe, this is an option that has been overlooked?

        1. Thanks, Tonyh. It’s a cruel world. What would we do without a little comic relief? You gave me the best laugh I have had in weeks.

          1. Ron, in a way Tony has the right idea. It’s called a jet airplane. It’s a capsule. It’s infursturture is a landing strip and a plane. At 30,000 feet, friction resistance is at a minimum at 600 mph.

            Beam me up Tony

            1. HB, give me a break. A 2-meter cross country steel pipeline filled with flowing water into which products are dumped for transport by that flowing water is compared with a jet airliner???

              Forgive me, but somehow I just don’t see the connection.

            2. So to cut a long story short, Ron, you don’t know whether freight pipelines are a practical idea or not. And neither you nor anyone else will know without a proper engineering study. The way I see it, this is basically a canal using unmanned, floating capsules instead of boats.

              You don’t seem to like ideas that might be construed as solutions to the oil depletion problem. You have spent so long spouting doom on this website, that you are now threatened by anything that might be seen as a partial solution to our oil depletion problems. I suspect that you have a doom complex, and confirmation bias when it comes to Peak Oil. You want it to happen soon and for whatever reasons, you don’t want solutions. So you mock rather than analyse. Or have I got you all wrong?

              As it happens, you may be correct about imminent or recent peak and maybe there are no workable solutions that will save us from grinding poverty in the years ahead. But if it’s all the same to you, I have no intention of laying down and waiting to die. I think it is worth considering solutions that may make the future more tolerable.

            3. Tonyh, thanks for another great laugh. But don’t hold your breath waiting for that study. No self-respecting engineer would even dare make such a study. He would be laughed out of the business.

              You want it to happen soon and for whatever reasons,

              Bullshit, now you have pissed me off. You dare think I want my children and grandchildren to live in a dog-eat-dog world where they will have to scrounge for every morsel of food. If you believe that then you are just goddamn fucking stupid. The world is what it is and pointing that out does not mean you wish it to happen. Goddammit, how can you pie-in-the-sky cornucopians be so fucking stupid as to think we realists who see the inevitable are cheering it on.

            4. Ron, my comment was to be a little light hearted to a bad idea. The plane doesn’t need a pipeline. But it is a cylinder capsule with wings and engines. Humans get inside of it. The atmosphere at 30,000 feet is thinner and more efficient than any fluid in a pipeline.

              That’s all, nothing more. It’s Friday night, Cheers

            5. Not a problem HB. You were just trying to make a humorous connection. 😉 But that is extremely hard to do with such an absurd proposition. But hope springs eternal for those who really believe we can fix all the damn problems that were brought on by this rapacious great ape who has multiplied its numbers and expanded its habitat at the expense of the habitat and resources of most other living creatures on this earth.

  9. Serious solar and wind roadblock. Once again – its the grid capacity and interconnection

    “There are currently over 150 gigawatts of active solar, wind, and hybrid resources stuck in interconnection queues across both MISO and SPP, all while the demand for renewable generation is expected to significantly grow in the coming years.”
    [note- MISO and SPP are the grid operators for much of the midwest, and not including Texas]

    ““Utilities are grappling with how to handle enormous growth in interconnection requests, both for utility-scale and distributed solar projects. This initiates transmission and distribution studies, which can take multiple years. Even once the studies are completed, the costs can be so high that many projects are deemed unviable,” Davis said. “On top of this, additional transmission and distribution capacity will be needed. Historically, new transmission and distribution build-out hasn’t kept up with the pace of renewable energy deployments.”

    With about 150 MW of projects stalled in the interconnection process in just the MISO and SPP service areas, this is about 8 years worth of total US solar project installation at 2020 growth rate- “the industry added a record 19.2 gigawatts of new capacity during 2020, a 43% jump from 2019.”

    The new Solar Futures DOE study showed the need to add 60MW to achieve the goals.
    https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2021-09/Solar%20Futures%20Study.pdf

    Grand plans for a solar and wind based electrical transition from fossil fuel are very likely to fall off the lofty goals due to this problem.

    1. “We’ll need to do this [building new power lines and electricity infrastructure] at a pace and scale the likes of which we’ve never seen before, and it’s time everyone involved in U.S. electricity transmission acknowledges a simple truth: Our current approach is not going to get us there…Transmission building in the U.S. today is a fragmented system of permitting, planning and paying, scattered over dozens of federal, state and local authorities. We are trying to build a patchwork system on a project-by-project basis without a national plan….”

      https://www.utilitydive.com/news/our-approach-to-expanding-electricity-infrastructure-isnt-working-its-ti/606391/

      1. We’ll need to do this [building new power lines and electricity infrastructure] at a pace and scale the likes of which we’ve never seen before

        These people have no historical context. They should look at the pace with which rail was built from 1865 to 1920, or the pace with which the interstate highway system was built starting in 1954.

        The problem is simply a lack of social consensus and political will. That’s a result of pushback by the FF industry, and especially a long-term project by the Koch family to cripple democratic government and prevent needed change.

        1. The problems with dealing with anything we talk about are not technical and never have been. They’ve always been human caused, and therefore, only a change in how we conduct ourselves will change that.

          Don’t hold your breath. The 20th anniversary of 9/11 has shown us how a unifying event globally can soon lead to even larger disparities between parties. Not even just the USA, but seeing Michel Barnier’s bid for French president is quite eye opening.

          If we can’t get people to even open their eyes to what is self-evident, what hope is there? And while a good chunk of FUD is from the Koch and other fossil fuel lobbies, a lot of this is also just down to how humans go about their lives now.

          https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/climate-change-american-mind-march-2021.pdf

          The number of people who still don’t even acknowledge climate change is shocking. And of those that do, you get “solutions” like buying SUVs that are battery powered, as if that helps anything.

          https://www.transportenvironment.org/newsroom/blog/worrying-trend-towards-heavily-polluting-suvs-undermines-carmakers’-sustainability

          1. Roughly 40% of Americans are bombarded by misinformation from conservative media. Roughly 45% of politicians have been bought by conservative money, much of which comes from FF (many of the rest are rented, at least part time).

          2. If climate change is true, that’s unstoppable anyway. The only idea crazier than blaming human actions for causing change is the thought human behavior can control and regulate climate back to a so-called normal not even Al Gore can define. The attempt will fail at the massive cost of lost personal freedoms and the right to prosperity.

            1. Newsflash: prosperity has been falling for decades in the West. You’re not going to get richer regardless of which route you take now.

            2. Shiloh- “lost personal freedoms and the right to prosperity”

              You are free to shit in your own well, but I’m glad it is illegal for you to shit in everyone else’s.
              There is a concept called the common good.
              I’m glad that you are not free to act against the common good, since all you seem to care about is your own self based on the comments you make here.

        2. “These people have no historical context. ”

          Funny Nick. These people who don’t know much happen to know 1000 fold more than you about the industry they work in.
          I hate to burst the ‘all-is-good with energy transition bubble’ you that you like to reside in,
          but this is real constraint that can’t be successfully talked away.
          If it doesn’t get dealt with in a big way, the pace of transition from fossil fuel will remain sluggish and subpar.

          1. HICKORY —

            Meanwhile we have greenwashing at its finest. No mention that global oil production must fall by 4% every year between now and 2030 to maintain any chance of staying below 1.5C of warming.

            TAR SANDS COMPANIES AIM FOR ‘NET ZERO’ BY 2050 – WITH NO PLAN TO EXTRACT LESS OIL

            “Tar sands companies said the alliance aims to “develop an actionable approach” to cut emissions while “preserving the more than $3 trillion in oil sands contribution” to Canada’s economy to 2050. They made no mention of phasing out production. The “net zero” strategy does not extend to emissions from consumers burning the oil, which are many times larger than those from the extraction process. In fact, planned oil production in Canada would lead to a 17% expansion between 2019 and 2030, according to recent analysis by Stockholm Environment Institute.”

            https://www.climatechangenews.com/2021/06/10/tar-sands-companies-aim-net-zero-2050-no-plan-extract-less-oil/

          2. Hickory, for some reason you’re engaging in personal attacks, without really thinking about (or researching) what was said.

            The original reference argued that the electrical transmission infrastructure that we need would require an unprecedented build out.

            I would agree that electrical transmission needs a very large buildout, but that’s not the same thing as saying that it would be without precedent. That’s simply not the case, and to say so implies that this is a challenge that has not been met before.

            It’s perfectly understandable that an expert on contemporary electrical infrastructure would not be aware of the nature of the build out of the rail system: it’s size, speed, and difficulty relative to the resources that were available at the time (mules! No paved access roads or previous infrastructure, etc) ). Nobody can know everything.

          3. “Beginning in the early 1870s, railroad construction in the United States increased dramatically. Prior to 1871, approximately 45,000 miles of track had been laid. Between 1871 and 1900, another 170,000 miles were added to the nation’s growing railroad system.

            Much of the growth can be attributed to the building of the transcontinental railroads. In 1862, Congress passed the Pacific Railway Act, which authorized the construction of a transcontinental railroad. The first such railroad was completed on May 10, 1869. By 1900, four additional transcontinental railroads connected the eastern states with the Pacific Coast.

            Four of the five transcontinental railroads were built with assistance from the federal government through land grants. Receiving millions of acres of public lands from Congress, the railroads were assured land on which to lay the tracks and land to sell, the proceeds of which helped companies finance the construction of their railroads. Not all railroads were built with government assistance, however. Smaller railroads had to purchase land on which to lay their tracks from private owners, some of whom objected to the railroads and refused to grant rights of way.

            Laying track and living in and among the railroad construction camps was often very difficult. Railroad construction crews were not only subjected to extreme weather conditions, they had to lay tracks across and through many natural geographical features, including rivers, canyons, mountains, and desert. Like other large economic opportunity situations in the expanding nation, the railroad construction camps attracted all types of characters, almost all of whom were looking for ways to turn a quick profit, legally or illegally. Life in the camps was often very crude and rough.”

            https://www.loc.gov/classroom-materials/united-states-history-primary-source-timeline/rise-of-industrial-america-1876-1900/railroads-in-late-19th-century/

          4. ” Countries around the world are well ahead of the United States in planning and building “macro grids” capable of moving electricity from one grid or distant geographic region to another, according to a new report authored by an Iowa State University engineer and a former doctoral student.

            The report found, for example, that since 2014 China has built or planned 260 gigawatts of high-capacity interregional transmission, Europe 44 gigawatts, South America 22 gigawatts and India 12 gigawatts. Canada has developed or planned 4 gigawatts, and the U.S. 3 gigawatts.

            “The United States is way, way behind,” said James McCalley, a report co-author…”

            “The report lists six major benefits of a macro grid: cost-reductions due to sharing of energy, services and capacity across regions; economic development; improved reliability; enhanced resilience and adaptability; higher use of renewable energy such as wind and solar; and lowered costs for reducing emissions.”

            https://www.news.iastate.edu/news/2020/12/08/macrogrids

  10. For every 406 Americans who have died of Covid-19, only 1 of those had completed vaccination.
    Over 650,000 in US have died of Covid.

    Question for any of those here who tend to vote republican-
    Why is vaccine refusal so prevalent amount republicans?
    Does it have to do with
    -the brand of religion that is taught in the churches frequented by republicans (a religious edict of some sort),
    -or due to a profound anti-science sentiment among republicans,
    -or is it due to a political stance taught by Fox news,
    – or is due to a case of mass delusion fostered by Q anon, trump, and other sources of severe disinformation,
    -or is it simply due to a desire to see the country falter under a Biden presidency?

    Or some other reason that I have not considered?
    Thanks for the help in understanding this phenomena. A unique and tragic moment in the history of this country.

      1. Tonyh,
        You prompted me to search for the most current info source I could find, since the info I had used was from late July.
        According to CDC as of Aug 30, ‘breakthrough’ deaths are up to 2,437. Over 80% of these were over 65 yrs old, and 21% had no evidence that death was covid related (death for other reasons/no symptoms of covid).

        So using the newer number we get-
        1 in 332 Covid deaths are those who have been vaccinated.

        https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html
        https://context-cdn.washingtonpost.com/notes/prod/default/documents/54f57708-a529-4a33-9a44-b66d719070d9/note/7335c3ab-06ee-4121-aaff-a11904e68462.#page=1

    2. Hickory, it’s mostly religious ignorance. The greatly devout believe they will not die until their time comes and that is all up to God. Vaccines will not affect the will of God.

      A new twist on an old joke: A lady was asked to wear a mask. She said, “No thanks, God will protect me.” Then she was asked to get vaccinated. She replied, “No thanks, God will protect me.” She died of Covid and asked God, “Why didn’t you protect me?” God replied, “I sent you a mask and a vaccine, what else did you expect of me?”

    3. Darwin will sort this out—-
      And homo sapiens will be better off genetically.

    4. Hickory,

      ALL OF THE ABOVE

      [Thankfully, in my county in northern New England, we are approaching 80% vaccinated.]

    5. Hickory,

      I believe that the primary problem is that Trump thought that Covid would hurt his re-election (he may have believed that it was a conspiracy), so he attempted to suppress any response to it. An Orwellian kind of wishful thinking: try to make everyone believe that it’s not important. A combination of conspiratorial thinking, deep incompetence and psychopathy.

      Conservative media followed his lead, and told conservatives to believe that Covid isn’t real, and that any realistic response (vaccines, masks, etc) was enabling those evil Democrats…

    6. Hi Hickory,
      I live in one of the darkest corners of the Old South, although I’m actually in Virginia.

      The answer to your question is ALL OF THE ABOVE, lol.

      A shorter answer is that there’s no cure for stupidity.

      I run into people every single day who believe absolutely outlandish bullshit about anything and everything more complicated than drinking beer and watching football on tv.

      There’s a Republican/ trump / anti liberal/ anti Democrat cult alive and well in this country, and it numbers upwards of a hundred million people, maybe more.

      Anybody who has bothered to learn a little something about cults knows that one of the hall marks of a cult is that it insulates its membership from any information coming from the outside, and hence, once you’re in, you don’t even realize you’ve been and are being HAD.
      I have literally and truly found it impossible, almost every time, to get an anti vaccine idiot who has had serious medical troubles, such as heart trouble, with stents, etc, to just ASK his or her physician about vaccination………

      They go nuts when you challenge them to do so……. literally refusing to even consider legitimate advice from physicians who have literally saved their sorry lives.

    1. And the Moral of the story is: Bad beliefs lead to bad outcomes.

      Is there such a thing as a self-inflicted holocaust?

      1. “Self-inflicted” might be a bit harsh. These are people who have been taught from an early age to not trust their own judgement, but to follow their leaders. And their leaders are failing them…

        2. Indeed. Although it’s hard to not think ill of people like the conservative radio host who died recently after telling people not to bother with masks and the vaccine, they are still human. Whatever ideology they had went up against reality, and if there is any justice, they will come out of that encounter alive and with a valuable lesson learned.

        3. So what’s up with the sizable percentage of Mormon Covid anti maskers, anti-vaxxers?
          They are failing to heed the counsel of their ‘prophet’, a physician of notable distinction by profession, who is telling them to mask up and get vaccinated.

          https://www.sltrib.com/news/2021/08/26/heres-what-happened-utahs/

          https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/08/24/even-lds-leaders-are-struggling-get-mormons-vaccinated-against-covid/

          Utah County Utah, which is 85% Mormon, has a vaccination rate of just 40%.

          Does Trumpism trump Mormonism?

    2. I remember back in the Obama era people used to joke that Obama should state publicly that breathing was a good idea. Then all the Republicans would suffocate themselves and he would easily win the re-election.

      Seems less funny now.

  12. Is there anything that you believed in your core, just like everyone else in your tribe, but later found out new information or a new perspective and was able to change your mind?
    I have one such example- I grew up when Viet Nam was Nixons war and I held a view that it was the republicans that were the lying warmongers of this country. But much later I found out about the fabrication of events at The Gulf Of Tonkin 1964 used by Johnson to escalate US military involvement in Viet Nam- akin to the Dick Cheney fabrication of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction story. I came to see that either party can be extremely misguided and intentionally evil at times.

    Will republican citizens in this country ever come to see that their position was 100% wrong regarding so many issues
    -Al Gore was entirely correct when he publicly acknowledged what the scientific community had been saying for years about fossil fuel linked global warming
    -Racism is evil and the Civil Rights Act was the moral path to take
    -The creation of the Environmental Protection Agency was a critical step to take in regard to both human health and some degree of preservation of the environment
    -Immigrants are a vital part of the US economic success story
    -Socialism is a set of economic policies, not a form of authoritarian government
    -Avoiding the Covid-19 vaccination in 2021 was idiotic
    -Solar and Wind energy is a communist plot to destroy the nations economy.
    -trump was a charlatan and one of the worst presidents in the nations history

    So many other examples. Are people able to admit that they were wrong, or is just too painful when you have been so wrong on so many things for so long?

    1. I was raised Roman Catholic. Church every Sunday and Christmas with the entire family. I was educated to believe in life after death and everyone around me were all in. No proof or scientific evidence. Just the willingness to believe the universe evolved around myself and the unacceptably that it could ever end.

        1. No, not anymore. At about the age of 15 it stopped making sense with the world around me.

          Why would an all loving god condemn me to hell for missing a Sunday at church or not praising him ? Also had a narcissistic older brother. There both gone from my life and I’m mentally better off because of it.

  13. Porsche and Siemens break ground on low-carbon e-fuel plant in Chile
    https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/09/porsches-new-synthetic-gasoline-may-fuel-formula-1-races/

    “Porsche and Siemens are developing a low-carbon synthetic fuel that combines green hydrogen (produced by wind-powered electrolysis) with carbon dioxide (filtered from the atmosphere) to form methane, which is in turn then turned into gasoline.”
    ..
    “Assuming all goes to plan, the plant should be able to produce 34,000 gallons (130,000 L) of synthetic fuel in 2022, before scaling up to 14.5 million gallons (55 million L) by 2024 and 145 million gallons (550 million L) by 2026, at a cost of around $7.6 per gallon ($2 per L).”
    ..

    and in one of the comments to this story

    “it should be pointed out that the niche market that is me, classic car drivers, and Formula One is between us not enough to justify developing Green-Hydrogen derived e-Fuel. The market is aviation and maritime. ”

    Pretty ambitious:
    2022 = 34,000 gallons
    2024 = 14.5 million gallons
    2026 = 145 million gallons

    1. Gerry F , ambitious this is f****** overambitious .
      Man has got to find the balance between his ambition and his limitation .
      Quote Marlon Brando in the movie ” The teahouse in the August moon ” .

      1. one of the comments to that article above:

        The US Navy has been working on something similar using seawater and electricity to make aviation kerosene. Nuclear aircraft carriers have lots of electricity, especially the Ford Class, and if they get it to work it’ll reduce the need for underway replenishment for jet fuel.

        1. Gerry, the IF word is being used a little too often for my discomfort . It implies their are no solutions . Just IF we could —— . Back in school use to have an exercise in ” fill in the blanks ” . No difference .

          1. Actually, this method is old chemistry. It’s just a question of whether the Navy decides to ramp it up. The US Congress is a big problem: they don’t want to fund anything that recognizes climate change.

        2. I agree, but what i was getting at is that there is a ready-made military application, and if the costs are even close to competitive, there will be lots of money thrown at this.

          The article estimates a cost of $2/L. Where i live gasoline is $1.35/L.

          I’m also skeptical that this will shake out so ‘easily’, but it will be interesting to watch.

          1. Good lord, it’s extremely competitive.

            That price assumes commercial prices for the electricity inputs. Nuclear aircraft carriers have essentially free power. Plus, delivery costs to carrier groups are far more expensive: it can cost $30 per litre to get fuel to distant military locations.

            It’s a no brainer.

            1. The Pentagon has been trying to move things over to electrical transmissions for a long time on the battlefield. Diesel-electric and then full on electric to help with survivability, but also the multitude of electronic sensor suites being used today. It naturally deals with the logistics chain of getting refined petroleum products, along with making things more versatile and stealthy or simpler.

              There were rumblings back in the ’60s about using the CVN fleet to produce JP-8 equivalents and act as floating power plants, IIRC, and I know this was being looked at years ago in papers. Whether it actually goes about being done is another matter, since I don’t think the first tranche of Nimitz carriers had spare capacity to do much fuel production anyway, but then those are antique ships now compared to the later improved variant and Ford class..

  14. I’ve read about this possibility……… producing aviation fuel on board nuclear carriers, in order to avoid the logistical expenses and risks of transporting fuel to carriers on the high seas, especially during times of actual war.

    What I didn’t read about …… and this may be the crux of the matter……. is what would have to be sacrificed in order to make space for the synthetic fuel plant.

    There’s not all that much on warships that isn’t there for some critical purpose.

    1. This is from June 2016. I can’t find anything from NRL more recent.

      NRL Seawater Carbon Capture Process Receives US Patent
      https://www.navy.mil/Press-Office/News-Stories/Article/2259523/nrl-seawater-carbon-capture-process-receives-us-patent/

      “The Electrolytic Cation Exchange Module (E-CEM), developed at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), provides the Navy the capability to produce raw materials necessary to develop synthetic fuel stock at sea or in remote locations. ”

      “Using a scaled-up, second generation E-CEM prototype, we will substantially increase CO2 and H2 production capable of producing up to one gallon of fuel per day, an increase nearly 40 times greater than with the earlier generation E-CEM.”

      Siemens is hoping to generate 400,000 gallons/day within 5 years.

    2. “What I didn’t read about …… and this may be the crux of the matter……. is what would have to be sacrificed in order to make space for the synthetic fuel plant.

      There’s not all that much on warships that isn’t there for some critical purpose.”

      Today the navy has oilers that deliver fuel to the fleet. If this technology can fit, I expect they would construct a new generation of oilers that manufacture their own fuel and stay near the fleet. Maybe oilers that have a landing deck so they can refuel aircraft as well.

      1. Hi GerryF,
        Sounds workable but it would not necessarily reduce the number of ships at sea ….. in harm’s way.

        The fewer ships , the fewer the necessary escorts to protect them.

        But it’s a dead sure thing that the only way this is ever going to work is to use a nuke as the primary power supply to operate the synthetic fuel plant.

        So the supply ship would have to be a nuke too.

        Nukes are extremely costly to build, but an EXISTING nuke runs for peanuts in terms of power output. Nuclear fuel is dirt cheap in terms of kilowatt hours.

        The nuke in a carrier has AMPLE spare capacity anytime at all, so far as I have ever read, except during high speed maneuvers such as evasive action or pedal to the metal high speed runs in the absolute minimum time.

        1. Yes that sounds likely. Take out the guts of an old nuclear powered aircraft carrier and put in the conversion and storage equipment.

          I haven’t seen enough data on this process to know if one nuclear ship could produce enough to keep a fleet going, or if you’d need two or three??

          But the Siemens timeline is short enough that we’ll know in a couple of years whether it’s going according to plan.

  15. Green Washing on grand scale-
    “Research from the Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative shows less than 5% of carbon offsets actually remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere”
    “Without a scientific basis, and a true pathway to net zero…some of the effects of these trades, or these commitments, might be simply unrealizable,”

    Beware the feel good schemes that actually do very little.

    https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/global-initiative-aims-bring-transparency-voluntary-carbon-markets-2021-07-29/

    1. “It’s understandable why most environmentalists frame global warming the way they do. It makes solutions seem easier to achieve. But if we’re just soothing ourselves while failing to actually stave off disaster, or even to understand our problems properly, what’s the point?”

  16. The CATL company, which seems to be the biggest battery company of them all, has started building sodium batteries on a small scale, and says they will be scaling up production over the next couple of years.

    The materials needed are cheap, according to what I’ve read, but I’m thinking the cost of a lithium battery is like eighty or ninety percent about fabrication, and no more than ten to twenty percent materials. Maybe I’m wrong about that?

    If anybody here knows something about sodium batteries……… thanks in advance!

    1. Indeed. It is a bold move, though hardly surprising given Australia’s position. They should have seen the writing on the wall 20 years ago. An SSN programme won’t be cheap, but I guess the Aussies realise that they have no choice. If fuel shortages are on the cards, we may start seeing small modular reactors in surface ships as well, both military and civil.

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