86 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum September 2, 2022”

  1. First!

    “Centers for Disease Control and Prevention officials blamed COVID-19 for about half the decline in 2021, a year when vaccinations became widely available but new coronavirus variants caused waves of hospitalizations and deaths. Other contributors to the decline are longstanding problems: drug overdoses, heart disease, suicide and chronic liver disease.”

    https://desdemonadespair.net/2022/09/u-s-life-expectancy-plunged-again-in-2021-down-nearly-a-year-last-comparable-decrease-was-during-height-of-world-war-ii-its-a-dismal-situation-it-was-bad-befor.html

    COVID was tragic, and enlightening; the MAGA crowd is a lot of cluster B nerds with main character syndrome; ambushing PTA meetings to rant about masks & pronouns, thinking they’re a rebel; the protagonist of their own dull story.

    https://www.psychologytoday.com/ca/blog/digital-world-real-world/202106/the-trouble-main-character-syndrome?amp

    https://www.psychologytoday.com/ca/blog/the-science-mental-health/202007/social-media-and-histrionic-personality-disorder

    https://www.propublica.org/article/facebook-hosted-surge-of-misinformation-and-insurrection-threats-in-months-leading-up-to-jan-6-attack-records-show/amp

    1. I am somewhat puzzled by the fact that someone who calls themself a “survivalist” and is into prepping does not show far more interest in natural (plant based) remedies and a general low tech approach to health care. It is even more surprising that survivalist seems to be cheering on the effort to get a needle in every arm with these very modern, high tech mrna based products.

      I remain intrigued by the fact that some of the lowest infection, hospitalisation and death rates have been observed in some of the world’s poorest countries. In fact it seems that the better off a country is, the worse the infection rates. It could be attributed to lower testing and lower availability of hospital beds in poorer countries but, there is no evidence of huge amounts of excess deaths to suggest that the situation is as bad in poorer countries as it is in the wealthier ones.

      In Madagascar they developed their own treatment based on the anti-malarial herb artemesia and despite a lack of evidence from double blinded, randomised, placebo controlled trials, their case and death rates have been remarkably low considering that only roughly 5% of the population has been vaccinated.

      In India several states instituted a Test, Trace and Treat strategy at the height of the delta wave in 2021. In the state of Uttar Pradesh the strategy resulted in a greater than 99% decline in daily new confirmed cases over the eight weeks between April 24, 2021 and June 19, 2021. The treat part of the strategy involved the distribution of medicine kits for each member of any household that included and individual that had tested positive. It is difficult but, not impossible to find out what was in those medicine kits. On June 19 only 3.6 of the population of India was fully vaccinated and 16.1% had received at least one dose. After the success of that initiative, why was it not propagated across the globe?

      There is a curious December 2, 2020 news report from the Australian Broadcasting Commission (ABC) COVID patient with sepsis makes ‘remarkable’ recovery following megadose of vitamin C

      A young Australian man who was critically ill with COVID-19 and suffering early stages of sepsis made a remarkable recovery after being given massive doses of vitamin C, according to his doctors.

      Professor Rinaldo Bellomo, director of Intensive Care at Melbourne’s Austin Health, said the 40-year-old’s health had started to deteriorate significantly from COVID-19, with the man losing kidney function, and his blood pressure plummeting.Professor Bellomo said after the patient had the megadose of vitamin C, the changes were “‘remarkable”…..[snip]

      “In a short period of time, we saw improved regulation of blood pressure, arterial blood oxygen levels and kidney function,” he said.

      His temperature also improved.

      “The patient was able to be taken off machine ventilation 12 days after starting sodium ascorbate treatment and discharged from hospital without any complications 22 days later,” he said.

      As far as I am aware, this story was not picked up by Reuters, AP, any US media organisation or any news organisation outside of . Fake news? This treatment would cost far less than the go to treatment in US hospitals, Remdesivir from Gilead Sciences and from this one anecdote would be far more safe and effective.

      It might appear to those less impressed with the PR campaign around this pandemic that the US and most other wealthy western countries have been bilked by the likes of Pfizer and Gilead.

      1. “It is even more surprising that survivalist seems to be cheering on the effort to get a needle in every arm with these very modern, high tech mrna based products.” ~ Islandboy

        Is that what I’m doing? Got a link?

        I started out in health care as a company medic, with the rifle company in which I had previously been a rifleman; then I did a bit of EMT/prehospital civy side. After university I worked in critical care ICU for about 13 years; then I did a bit of work in prison health unit for a couple years; then I started my own occ health business. I can talk healthcare, but I don’t think you’ll like it.

        The Emerging Role of Vitamin C as a Treatment for Sepsis
        https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7070236/

        Vitamin C Fails Again As Treatment For Sepsis
        https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/24/971000085/vitamin-c-fails-again-as-treatment-for-sepsis

        Sepsis has been around for a while now. If vitamin c cured it, some alcoholic would have sorted it out in the 50’s.

        https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/sepsis/symptoms-causes/syc-20351214

        Madagascar skews younger and more rural, as does the rest of sub Saharan Africa. This impacts morbidity and mortality, as well as public health surveillance and record keeping.

        https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Mozambique
        https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.RUR.TOTL?locations=MG

        1. I have seen those trials. I have been following the story of vitamin C in relation to sepsis since January 2020 when I discovered the work of Dr. Paul Marik who started treating patients with a combination of hydrocortisone, vitamin c and vitamin b1 (thiamine) in January 2016 according to his own account in this Full interview with Dr. Paul Marik(video). Twenty years ago my mother died in a London, UK hospital, three days after they performed a hysterectomy with the diagnosis being “total organ failure” (sepsis) so, I was intrigued when in January 2020 i noticed this 2 minute video on YouTube with the title ICU nurses discuss vitamin C therapy for sepsis. This video is what led me to Dr. Marik and eventually the group that formed around him to explore treatments for covid.

          At the time of my mothers death I was already familiar with Clinical Guide to the Use of Vitamin C, The Clinical Experiences of Frederick R. Klenner, M.D., abbreviated, sumarized and annotated by Lendon H. Smith, M.D. A particular sentence from this document, under the heading “Surgery”, was in the back of my mind at the time of my mother’s operation, “30 grams should be given intravenously daily—post-operatively, until food and pills are tolerated orally”. I was in Jamaica and was in no position to even suggest that Dr. Klenner’s advice be followed. Any such suggestion would have been dismissed summarily by the hospital. It was very emotional to for me to see tacit confirmation of Klenner’s ideas about post operative care 18 years after my mothers death with the “discovery” coming 15 years too late.

          As for “Vitamin C Fails Again As Treatment For Sepsis”, did you actually read the article, specifically the Marik’s response to the trial? The following link is to a 79 second video of an emotional response by Marik during the presentation of the results of an earlier trial that failed to show positive results.

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpzqsOSLl6c

          The above clip was excerpted from the presentation of the findings from the VITAMINS Trial at the Critical Care Reviews 2020 meeting (CCR20), on January 17 in Belfast, Northern Ireland. Back in January 2020 I watched the entire video . It appears to me that whenever a “breakthrough” involving vitamin c occurs, a great deal of effort is expended to prove it wrong. I would go as far as to say that the same is true for anything that threatens pharmaceutical industry profits. The comments to the video appear to have been made mostly by people that share my views.

          I blame this blind focus on pharmaceuticals and the summary dismissal of vitamin C in therapeutic doses (>4g per day) by the medical establishment for the death of my mother. For me it is personal. I intend to avoid regular (mainstream) doctors for the rest of my life. Doctors like Paul Marik and his colleagues are good people in my book but, their academic careers have been ruined because of their stance on early treatment for covid.

      2. Still it looks like aplenty of cold up there in Greenland, look at the actual temperatures instead of the confusing colours on the map Mike B is wanting for us to view. The actual temperatures still show a lot of 0*C or lower, in other words no need for homes to have A/C yet up there in Greenland.

          1. Wow! Totally unpresented for this time of year, for any time of year. Thanks for posting this man.

  3. Oops.

    SECOND ‘VAST’ METHANE LEAK AT PEMEX OIL FIELD IN MEXICO

    Natural gas that comes to the surface as a by-product of oil exploration and production is routinely burnt off, or flared, to reduce methane’s harmful impact on the environment. But the direct release of methane on this scale is unusual and environmentally catastrophic.

    The share of natural gas that comes to the surface as a by-product increases as older fields, like the ones in the Gulf of Mexico, are being depleted.

    https://ca.news.yahoo.com/exclusive-scientists-detect-second-vast-170545691.html

    1. Austin area- heavily blue county,
      just like most places with a big University where people get schooled in how to analyze issues, learn history, learn to question authority when it strays from fact…

      but aside from politics – geothermal heat pump systems are an excellent way to go. I see lots of rooftop solar in that neighborhood as well.

      1. Interesting, my belief of today’s universities is to conform, be brainwashed and certainly never question left wing ideology. If your one of them then certainly this is wrong.

        2. Ervin, sounds like you have been successfully trained to keep your thinking in a narrow lane.
          There is a big wide world out there to wander in and you can pick your own paths (mix and match, study, analyze and turn inside out).
          Universities can give you tools to grow your mind in whatever direction you choose.
          I question all ideology, and give no ‘wing’ an advantage in assumption of truth, relevance or accuracy over another.

      2. My relative also got geothermal heating now. It was 200 meters of drilling, not the suspected 300 meters. I hope it is done properly. If it is, it is most likely that electricity cabeling issues and other sub surface problems can be more of a problem and subject to maintenace. No reason that the heating/cooling effect can not last for 30 years.

    2. My in-laws have geothermal and it’s worked well. They live in the middle of the most heavily drilled part of our field, four old wells have been plugged on their 20 acres in the past 15 or so years. This has caused zero issues with their system, which they have had for 10+ years.

      I’m probably way off, but have hoped that tech for geothermal could get to where our old, shallow oil wells could be used for it.

      1. I don’t know anything about the hands on oil industry other than what I read in blogs such as this one, and a couple of books.

        But I do know the kindergarden stuff about geology.

        If your old wells are close enough to a house or other building, there’s no reason in principle they wouldn’t work for geothermal.

        But it wouldn’t be practical to pump the water not only up and down but also a considerable distance to and from a building needing heat and cooling.

  6. “Rising costs of food and energy, and the impact of the climate crisis on resources, are predicted to increase civil unrest in more than half the world’s countries over the coming months according to new analysis…
    “We’ve seen a lot of big protests around the world this year and we’re seeing inflation accelerating,” said Torbjorn Soltvedt, Verisk’s principal Middle East and north Africa analyst, who led the research. “In parallel, we’ve seen a trend of a weakening of democratic countries and of free speech. That’s why we expect a lot more civil unrest this year and going into next year….
    For governments unable to spend their way out of crises, repression is likely to be the main response to anti-government protests.”

    Early stages of disorganization?

    1. Stay tuned for Government by bullock cart. I forecast decreased state surveillance.

      1. “I forecast decreased state surveillance.”
        Please explain…I expect the opposite, in most countries.

          1. I feel the same. But Starlink and drones may extend the reach of the state with much less energy.

        2. NOTES CONCERNING THE IMPACT OF THE ENERGY CRISIS ON THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM
          NOVEMBER 1973
          https://www.ojp.gov/pdffiles1/Digitization/14967NCJRS.pdf

          SUGGESTIONS AND IDEAS HELPFUL TO LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES ENGAGED IN PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT OF COMPREHENSIVE ENERGY CRISIS OPERATING PROCEDURES.
          “LACK OF AN ADEQUATE SUPPLY OF GASOLINE, FOR INSTANCE, MAY REQUIRE A CURTAILMENT OF NORMAL PATROL FUNCTIONS AT A TIME WHEN THE INCIDENCE OF COMMERCIAL BURGLARIES, PURSE SNATCHES, FIRERELATED CALLS, AND FUEL THEFTS MAY BE DRASTICALLY INCREASED. IN ADDITION, AN ELECTRICAL BROWN-OUT OR BLACKOUT COULD CRITICALLY HAMPER DEPARTMENT OPERATIONS AND COMMUNICATIONS.”
          https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/california-preliminary-guide-law-enforcement-preparedness-energy

        3. I see it differently.
          Agree that local jurisdictions with budget problems will lose policing capacity.
          On the other hand, i expect that those with a grip on power at state and national levels will sequester as much energy as they need to increase state surveillance and enforcement.
          Surveillance has reached a whole new level with facial recognition and all sorts of other digital ID tracking tools.
          The response to tough times is a doubling down of state efforts to limit social unrest, at least when it affects the wealth of their base.

          Its no guarantee that authorities will win the battle over chaos and protest in some areas and some countries, but they sure as hell will try.
          And if central authorities or local police fail to exert control over certain areas, then that void will be filled by opportunist warloads/militias/gangs.
          Good luck negotiating this world when things get tight.
          It has been extremely ugly in past episodes.

          1. Cities will likely experience the focus of state surveillance. Much of the surveillance will be digital. That’s fairly easy to avoid imho.

            IBM Abandons Facial Recognition Products, Condemns Racially Biased Surveillance
            https://www.npr.org/2020/06/09/873298837/ibm-abandons-facial-recognition-products-condemns-racially-biased-surveillance

            Anecdotal case studies of already collapsing states, as the dominos fall from least resilient to most, seem to show increased levels of state violence, but decreased area of state control. Look at a control map of Syria for example; or look at rural Central America; 14th century rural Europe, but with cocaine gangs instead of Royal Barons. Organized crime militias will attempt to fill the power vacuum.

            State surveillance also includes public health, not just law enforcement. That too will also dwindle, perhaps focused on large municipalities where people gather.

            As a collapse proceeds, so to speak, I forecast increasingly large area of geography where not much meaningful state presence exists; unless there is a valuable natural resources, like a mine or a dam.

            Crime and Collapsed States in the Age of Globalization
            “Failed states are those whose power grids have experienced sustained and massive breakdown, wherein state authorities are no longer able to project power either at the center or at the periphery. For a number of reasons, the failed state attracts criminal elements, both inside and outside its borders.”
            https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/trouble-paradise-crime-and-collapsed-states-age-globalization

            Everyone who worked hard all their life will be standing in a breadline, while gangster politicians get driven around in armored SUV’s.

  7. Skeptical about the possibility of the Terminal Deforestation Event [TDE] as a response to loss of fossil fuels in a world that has done little to prepare for the eventuality, well…

    “UK wood suppliers have reported an unprecedented surge in demand for logs, briquettes and other biomass products as households rush to minimise the impact of energy bills rising 80 per cent next month…
    “What we’re seeing is an absolute panic buy,” Sept 2, 2022 New Scientist

    This is exactly what we should expect to see on grand scale over the next three decades.

    1. Rural people, most of them farmers, back in the nineteenth century were in one hell of a pinch because they couldn’t afford firewood, if they lived near a city in the North East. They had to use just about all of their land as pasture and cropland, and ship their production to the cities.

      So…….. you had to be WELL off to own a woodlot up that way if you were within shipping distance of a city.

      1. And many of us are likely aware that before coal the forests of Europe (except perhaps north Scandinavia)
        were completely cut many over.
        And in many parts of the dry and undeveloped world women walk for miles every day to find branches for cooking.

        1. Sad but true. It’s heart breaking to see a picture of a woman pulling tree limbs down so that her goats can eat the leaves………. with the tree being the only one visible in the picture.

          I’m utterly resigned to the fact ( as I see things) that Mother Nature is going to take care of the naked ape overshoot problem in Her usual way sometime within this century.

          But there’s some reason to believe or at least hope those of us fortunate enough to live in North America and a few other places can pull thru o k.

          The old farmer’s perspective is that overshoot problems are generally local or regional, and that the population crashes associated with overshoot also tend to be local or regional, assuming the species involved live in many different and widely separated geographical areas.

          And we naked apes are unquestionably one of if not THE the most widely disseminated of all the larger animal species.

          1. Just watched Idiocracy, quite a few years later from premiere, great movie but I´m afraid that´s where we´re most likely headed (I.e the western world)
            Some might think that is Theocratic, and it might be, but see it and decide yourselves, might be a bit ironic in that case.

            But I also watched, earlier tonight on Discovery, a story of a french chic that had made quite some progress in sustainable local agriculture, so there might be a small glimmer of hope in that regard…

          2. The old farmer’s perspective is that overshoot problems are generally local or regional,
            I read an article in the WaPo today where they discussed farmers abandoning their crops (“The summer drought’s hefty toll on American crops” https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/09/05/crops-climate-drought-food/). Add this the drought in Europe and Asia, and I don’t think we’re talking about local events.

            Is it just me, or are we seeing an acceleration of proto-apocalyptic events? There is no way the Colorado River watershed can come back next year, even if the heat breaks (don’t know enough about Europe and Asia to comment, though I fear similar outcomes). If we have another year as bad (or worse) than this one, are we looking at multi-megadeaths?

            1. I predict “megadeaths”.

              In coming years, when poor localities and regions dependent on local food production suffer catastrophic droughts and or floods the people who live there will starve, it’s as simple as that.

              The countries that in recent times have been providing them with loans ( or charity) to buy food are going to be dealing with ever tougher problems at home, and the surplus mountains of grain that were so common when I was a young guy no longer exist.

              No amount of money can buy food that simply ISN’T FOR SALE.

              Now assuming our own production here in the states holds up reasonably well, we can export a LOT of food, especially if we are willing to drop down the pyramid or ladder a couple of rungs, and eat more bread and beans ourselves, and less beef and pork.

              But how likely is it that we, as a nation, will give up beef and pork to any substantial extent ?

              Famines have been quite common throughout history.

              But a famine in a particular country in Africa or Asia has near zero effect on food supplies in other far away countries.

              Half a dozen times at least over the years I have known of farmers in some particular area here in the states having to sell out their livestock at fire sale prices because the local feed supply failed, and hauling in feed from other places was simply out of the question due to the high expense.

              Had they not sold their cattle for peanuts, the cows would have starved.

              People in famine stricken areas either migrate or starve, until the local population is back in short term balance with the food supply.

              When food supplies collapse by half, maybe a third of the local population in some poor countries will starve. The other two thirds may manage to hang on until the next harvest.

              If everybody eats, everybody starves before the next harvest.

              If his pastures and grain crops fail, a farmer who has cattle and tries to keep them all will lose them all. If he gets rid of eighty percent of his cows, he can probably somehow manage to feed the rest until times improve.

            2. It has occurred to me that if a great purge in human numbers occurs because of drought, famine, disease, environmental catastrophe, etc., wherever it happens, the remaining populations will experience a great relief in the pressures exerted upon them by scarcity, prices, etc. Paradoxically, the shit hitting the fan would benefit a portion of the population.

              Of course, the stench of all those bodies rotting would probably encircle the planet.

        2. The forests are not in a shape to replace fossil fuels due to the volume challenge. Coal is probably the nearest subsitute. Still, it is interesting to see that some of the places in the northern hemisphere that have adopted fossil fuels in a major way witnesses that forests grow like never before. The logistics of cutting down timber and getting it to a market can be costly, and in some cases so costly that the forest is left alone. Just an unusual observation. Vaclav Smil mentioned in one of his books that that surprisingly the mass of woods was 2-3 folds now compared to pre ww2 in Massachusetts. In Norway the wood mass is 3 times plus what it was in the 1950’s. I would guess Russia have neglected their wood mass and to a lesser degree Canada as well – cheap easy fossil fuels being the best choice. In sum it does not add enough compared to forest lost in the drought belt or in the tropical areas. It is just pretty interesting to see areas with 3 times more wood mass compared to 1945 (in Norway), just because fossil fuels was the cheaper option compared to the traditional timber for decades.

          1. Kolbeinih- “The forests are not in a shape to replace fossil fuels due to the volume challenge. Coal is probably the nearest subsitute.”

            Well, lets remember that coal is fossil fuel (fossil sunlight), just like oil and gas are.
            And when people can’t get enough oil and gas and coal, and don’t have any substitute like hydro, nuclear, solar or wind in place at adequate scale,
            then they will certainly go after wood.
            All of it.

            And true…it won’t take very many years to go through whats left of the forests in most of the world.
            That is what we face without dramatically increasing effort to downscale population and demand/capita, and simultaneously deploying alternatives.

            The chances of pulling off a successful contraction are very low, since we didn’t start in 1970.

  8. Bad news for “Greenwashers”, and, for our poor planet.

    RISE IN COAL USE SPARKS RESURGENCE IN DEADLY MINING PRACTICES IN MEXICO

    “The current Mexican administration is strong-arming renewable energy firms out of the national market through regulatory instruments, and is unilaterally ignoring the global call to phase out coal. There is little to no doubt that Mexico, the world’s 15th biggest economy, will fail to meet its global pledges to lower its carbon emissions in the next decades. To be sure, Mexico is part of a much larger global trend back toward coal as Russia’s war in Ukraine (compounded by continued economic reverberations from the Covid-19 pandemic) puts a global squeeze on natural gas supply. As Europe and much of Asia face a worsening energy crisis heading into the winter months, many countries are begrudgingly firing up old power plants as a last resort. In fact, last month the International Energy Agency said that the world is projected to return to its all-time high coal demand before 2022 is over.

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/Rise-In-Coal-Use-Sparks-Resurgence-In-Deadly-Mining-Practices-In-Mexico.html

    1. This probably does not help!

      Global fossil fuel subsidies rocket to almost $US700 billion in 2021

      Global fossil fuel subsidies almost doubled over the course of 2021, a new report has shown, as governments around the world – and not least of all in Australia – boosted their levels of support for coal, oil and gas projects in the name of fending off cost of living crises.

      OECD and IEA data shows that 51 countries worldwide spent a combined $US697.2 billion on subsidies for fossil fuels in 2021, up from $US362.4 billion in 2020.

      These subsidies are expected to rise further in 2022, alongside fossil fuel prices, as the global energy crisis continues, and the soaring cost of fossil fuel energy takes its toll on consumers.

      1. The true free market is a myth because it has never existed under industrial capitalism. Governments, rather than markets, have always determined the fortunes of corporations, through preferential contracting, tax breaks and direct subsidies. Although, it’s worth noting that some markets are freer than others.

  9. Building a zero emissions grid in US in just 13 years would save $US1.2 trillion

    A landmark new study from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in the US finds that if the world’s biggest economy decarbonises its grid in just 13 years it would save up to $US1.2 trillion in avoided health and climate costs.

    The new study, done in conjunction with the US Department of Energy, plots a range of scenarios on how to reach net zero emissions on the world’s biggest grid in just 13 years.

    Three of the four scenarios require additional power systems costs of between $US330 billion and $US400 billion, while a fourth – limited by transmission constraints and amount of wind that can be deployed – requires more storage, and more nuclear, that doubles the cost to around $US740 billion.

    But each of the scenarios delivers considerable more benefits in avoided health impacts and climate change because it shuts down the combustion of fossil fuels for electricity.

  10. How many people can Earth handle?

    Others, meanwhile – including the British broadcaster and natural historian Sir David Attenborough – have labelled our swarming masses a “plague on the Earth”. In this view, nearly every environmental problem we’re currently facing, from climate change to biodiversity loss, water stresses and conflicts over land, can be traced back to our rampant reproduction over the last few centuries. Back in 1994 – when the global population was a mere 5.5 billion – a team of researchers from Stanford University, in California, calculated that the ideal size of our species would be between 1.5 and 2 billion people.

    1. “…can be traced back to our rampant reproduction over the last few centuries.”

      That’s not really the full truth; humans aren’t a very prolific species compared to others.

      Alfred Russel Wallace made the observation that it is access to food (energy) that leads mostly to proliferation, not reproductive rate.

      The greater or less fecundity of an animal is often considered to be one of the chief causes of its abundance or scarcity; but a consideration of the facts will show us that it really has little or nothing to do with the matter. Even the least prolific of animals would increase rapidly if unchecked, whereas it is evident that the animal population of the globe must be stationary, or perhaps, through the influence of man, decreasing.

      He describes the population of passenger pigeons at that time (mid-19th century). Irony alert: These birds raise usually just one fledgling per cycle. And yet there were billions in the skies!

      This example strikingly shows us that the procuring a constant supply of wholesome food is almost the sole condition requisite for ensuring the rapid increase of a given species, since neither the limited fecundity, nor the unrestrained attacks of birds of prey and of man are here sufficient to check it.

      Since the onset of agriculture, and technology , and medical science, and the removal of just about all “checks” on our existence, we are now more abundant than the passenger pigeons of the 19th century.

      Passenger pigeons, as we all know, are now extinct, in no small part due to the interception by humans and encroachment on their habitats.

      There’s a lesson here!

      I love Wallace’s paper: Ternate Paper.

      1. That’s not really the full truth; humans aren’t a very prolific species compared to others.

        Oh really? Just what species has been as prolific as humans during the last century? See the chart below. That is the problem. No other species has such a problem. Only humans are as prolific as that. Since 1900 the human population of the earth has increased almost 5-fold. During that time, almost every mammal larger than a dog has decreased its population by about the same amount. We are driving every large animal on earth into extinction.

        Click on graph to enlarge.

        1. I am not disputing the “what” of that article but the “how.”

          The chart misses Wallace’s point: You’re thinking of “prolific” as in ability to maintain a growing population. Wallace’s point is that the reproductive capacity–the number of offspring per cycle–is not really what causes exploding populations. It’s access to food that causes populations to explode, even for slow-bearing species like passenger pigeons. And with humans that includes every other instance of checks being removed from our existence.

          Dog and cats can bear many, many more offspring per year than humans can. But humans beat dogs and cats hands down in exploding their populations.

          In fact, if it weren’t for humans, there wouldn’t be so many dogs and cats!

          We’ve removed the checks on our existence, for better AND for worse.

          1. The chart doesn’t miss any point. You, however, completely miss the point. The passage you disputed was this one from How many people can Earth handle? The particular passage you disputed dealt with how did we get in this damn mess?

            Others, meanwhile – including the British broadcaster and natural historian Sir David Attenborough – have labelled our swarming masses a “plague on the Earth”. In this view, nearly every environmental problem we’re currently facing, from climate change to biodiversity loss, water stresses and conflicts over land, can be traced back to our rampant reproduction over the last few centuries.

            You disputed that last sentence. You said: That’s not really the full truth; humans aren’t a very prolific species compared to others.

            No, that is the truth and the full truth in spades! Of course, rabbits have a higher reproductive rate, but they also have a much higher fatality rate. Their population stays the same. Well, actually it is declining quite rapidly, but that has not one damn thing to do with the rampant reproduction of Homo sapiens over the last few centuries. That is what is causing our problem. Rabbits have nothing to do with it.

            1. “Of course, rabbits have a higher reproductive rate, but they also have a much higher fatality rate.”

              Yes, that is exactly my point, Ron. And it’s Wallace’s point, too. Read his paper, for Christ’s sake. Even Darwin noted that a slowly reproducing species such as the elephant would eventually cover the planet IF left unchecked.

              We are a K species, not an r species. We don’t reproduce “prolifically.” But because we’ve managed to harness unprecedented food and energy resources, we’ve covered the planet with our masses.

              You’ve managed to create a tempest in a teapot.

            2. The statement, “our rampant reproduction” is just wrong. You will notice Attenborough did not actually say that, it is the article writer’s statement.

              Reproduction rates have actually declined, but as Wallace points out, that doesn’t matter if plentiful resources are available to a species.

              Wallace’s insight means the population problem is worse than we imagine, because as a long as we keep removing the checks on our existence and appropriating the Earth’s resources, it doesn’t matter if our reproduction rate decreases: the problems will only, paradoxically, worsen.

              Remember good old Professor Bartlett’s insight that all the good things about modern life–medicine, agriculture, technology–only make the problem worse!

        2. A young fellow asked me if that curve justified labelling our current geologic age ‘ Anthropogenic’ and I answered ” when history is finally written it will most probably be judged similar to a plague of locusts”

    2. 1.5-2 billion…
      yes, or considerably less.
      No good way to get there.
      And yet euthanasia and assisted suicide are illegal.
      In the US submachine guns are legal.

      Dis-concordance.

      1. Well, over our history, it has been 1-5 million with a near extinction 65 thousand years ago.
        1-5 million may be optimistic?

        1. Since then we have gained some advantages- dog enabled domestication of horse, goat etc, and improved control of fire, metal tools, etc.
          So, the population of the world about 3 thousand years may be sustainable.

          1. But we are in a mass extinction, with a collapsing ecosystem.
            But lets hope for the best—

            Last time this happened was 65 million years ago, so not an everyday occurrence.

  11. Welcome to the future folks.

    CHINA LOGS HOTTEST AUGUST SINCE RECORDS BEGAN

    Southern China last month sweltered under what experts said may have been one of the worst heat waves in global history, with parts of Sichuan province and the megacity of Chongqing clocking a string of days well over 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit).

    Meanwhile, scientists have said a rapid reduction in global carbon dioxide emissions is needed to avert potentially disastrous global heating and its associated climate impacts. China, the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, has pledged to bring its carbon emissions to a peak by 2030 and cut them to zero by 2060. But the record-busting summer heat and drought, combined with a power crunch last year, have pushed authorities to pivot back towards carbon-rich coal use in what they have portrayed as a bump on the road towards a more sustainable future. Beijing said earlier this year it would raise coal mining capacity by 300 million tonnes and has stepped up approvals of coal plants and related infrastructure.

    https://phys.org/news/2022-09-china-hottest-august-began.html

  13. Downtown Sacramento just hit 116 degrees. That is the new All-Time highest temperature for Downtown Sacramento. Old record was 114 on July 17, 1925

    1. Recall this is the same state where the political class wants to force everybody into using electric cars within less than 15 years, even though the electrical grid is collapsing under a simple heat wave in the here and now. Welcome to the future of California, everyone! You wanted to use your car today? Can’t do it because we turned our back on abundant fossil fuels in favor of intermittent electricity. Maybe you’ll take the bus or train instead? Can’t do that either because we switched those over to electric as well. What a joke. How do the people making these stupid decisions think we can live our lives without any reliable forms of transportation?

      1. Beano,
        Did you really expect that the adjustment to a life after cheap and readily available fossil fuels was going to be easy or seamless?
        You might want to think that through a little bit.

      2. California is a place unique in the USA, and even the whole world.

        The typical citizen there is in favor of sound, progressive environmental policies, and for the most part, the state government is pretty good at doing so.

        But sometimes the tail wags the dog, and sometimes things just get out of hand for no particular reason.

        The California economy has over the last few decades has grown faster than the state’s electrical grid capacity, so that there’s no longer enough reserve generation and transmission capacity.

        And some well intentioned but seriously ill informed people in the green camp have done all the tail wagging they are capable of, and they’ve been successful to the point that getting new power lines and new generating capacity approved is tough to nearly impossible, excepting of course wind and solar farms.

        So……. now California is seriously behind, and needs to be upgrading the grid.

        And California WILL upgrade the grid….. once there are enough black outs and brown outs to convince the people and politicians they elect to GET ON WITH THE JOB.

        And of course most of the new generating capacity will be wind and or solar…..

  16. I’d never heard of this company until today. Now I’m very curious. Has anyone here a view of it?

    BWXT provides update on microreactor progress
    https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/BWXT-provides-update-on-microreactor-progress

    BWX Technologies selected to build Project Pele microreactor
    https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/BWX-Technologies-selected-to-build-Project-Pele-mi

    BWXT to Build First Advanced Microreactor in United States
    https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220609005154/en/BWXT-to-Build-First-Advanced-Microreactor-in-United-States

    1. Thanks OFM, encouraging for us techno-optimists. Maybe Seba will be proved right?

      1. I’m cautiously optimistic that Old Man Business As Usual will somehow manage to stay on his feet in some parts of the industrialized world more or less indefinitely. This includes the USA and Canada in particular, given that these two countries still have substantial endowments of non renewable natural resources, especially farmland.

        North America isn’t in any danger at all, in terms of conventional war. There’s no immediate overpopulation problem.

        So we have a fair to good chance of pulling thru the overshoot crisis, assuming the climate doesn’t go completely nuts on us. Even if our food production crashes by half, we could still make it, by eating less meat, and be all the healthier for doing so.

        So….. I’m thinking Seba will be proven right about electric vehicles and that we aren’t going to go over the Seneca Cliff here in Yankee Land at least, due to peak oil, assuming we are lucky enough to elect reasonably competent and honest leaders over the next couple of decades.

        We CAN manage our energy and resource issues if we bite the bullet and do what must be done, at least in some countries. Things will be very tough in some respects, but I don’t see any real reason, again assuming we have good leadership, for the power to go off, or the water and sewer systems to quit working, or super markets to be out of food.

        But there are no guarantees at all.

        I’m personally convinced that the Four Horsemen will be running roughshod over substantial parts of the world, and troubles have a way of multiplying like cock roaches.

        There may be one or more outbreaks of highly contagious and uncontrollable diseases.

        I don’t have any problems seeing machine gunned dead bodies piled up in front of fences at national borders in a number of places. People with as much or more trouble than they can handle aren’t going to allow large numbers of immigrants into their countries.

        World War Three is a real possibility. It’s lights out in that case, except maybe for a few lucky hillbillies capable of living without cops, fossil fuels, hardware stores, doctors, and toilet paper.
        My great great grand parents got by without these things, excepting a little coal that was used to smelt iron.

        Ten years ago I believed Peak Oil would mean the end of life as we know it.

        But I believe now that electrified transportation plus renewable electricity can keep Old Man Business As Usual alive and functional, if not hale and hearty……. at least in some very lucky countries such as the USA.

        But half a dozen other things could come to pass that will mean the end of him, even in countries such as the USA.

        1. I suppose, but even here in this fortunate land I suspect that a shorterm (30 year) drop in gdp, or whatever measure of prosperity you care to use, of 50% should not surprise us.
          Keep in mind that the prosperity level of today is dependent of a series of factors that will be likely gone over the next several decades, such as
          -global reserve currency
          -globalization with the low prices for goods like electric motors and clothes, batteries, aluminum and semiconductors, as well as money earned on the export market
          -inexpensive petroleum products with motor fuel just being one such derivative
          -inexpensive food
          -inexpensive labor
          -affordable services such as medical care (you thought it was expensive now- just wait)

          Costs of labor and food and all sorts of goods could easily triple in short order.
          Affordability of non-fossil replacement equipment and technologies will be a big hurdle for most.

          Contraction will be the new normal, as the most likely scenario I think.

          1. Hi Hickory,
            There’s some overlap between our positions.

            I say I’m cautiously optimistic that Old Man BAU can stay on his feet, with times being very tough in some respects, in a some places at least.

            You say I suppose, meaning maybe.

            I wouldn’t even think about arguing that you are wrong about the economy shrinking dramatically for a long time.

            But………

            There’s a hell of a difference between crash and burn scenarios and tough times with the lights on, food in the stores, the water and sewer working, and cops on the street.

            My personal opinion, for what it’s worth, is that a substantial portion of the world economy will crash and burn, with tens of millions to hundreds of millions of people dying hard at various times and various places, until the population in such places is reduced to the point the survivors can eke out a threadbare existence on whatever they can provide for themselves.

            I won’t be around to see it, but I’m reasonably sure that Mother Nature will get rid of anywhere from a third to three quarters or more of all us naked apes before this century is out.

            A few decades down the road, people accustomed to eating prime beef here in the USA may be damned grateful for an occasional chicken drumstick, with the rest of us glad to clean up the beans and potatoes on our plates.

            We might devolve into a feudal society of some sort, with a few rich and powerful each running a fiefdom where the rest of us are happy to have something, just about anything, to eat, and a roof over our heads.

            1. Plenty of overlap, although I have trouble seeing how people in this country will behave themselves in a civil manner when things get tight.

    1. Good chance this will be the coolest year that most worlds people see for the rest of their lives.

  19. RISK OF MULTIPLE CLIMATE TIPPING POINTS ESCALATES ABOVE 1.5°C GLOBAL WARMING

    Multiple climate tipping points could be triggered if global temperature rises beyond 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, according to a major new analysis published in the journal Science. Even at current levels of global heating the world is already at risk of passing five dangerous climate tipping points, and risks increase with each tenth of a degree of further warming.

    https://phys.org/news/2022-09-multiple-climate-escalates-15c-global.html

    1. I’d be happy to see humans adapt instead which would render the study of tipping points unnecessary.

    1. I just finished it.
      Very dense and demanding read.
      I can see why a free market libertarian would not like it.

      1. And yet easier to get through than one of that condescending prat’s videos.

    2. I couldn’t read that goddamned book. It’s pretentious, verbose, not well organized, and in some ways pretty run-of-the-mill in its trotting out the Locke/Rousseau dichotomy and the requisite bashing of Pinker, Harari, et al.

      The book is a perfect example of the excesses of HYPE. I admit it: I was hoodwinked by the hype.

  21. For anyone following the multiverse story:

    Carter’s observation that our universe is finely tuned for the emergence of life has been called the anthropic principle. A profound question raised by the principle is: Why? Why should the universe care whether it contains animate matter? The theological answer to this question is a cosmic form of intelligent design: Our universe was created by an all-powerful and purposeful being, who wanted it to have life.

    Another explanation, more scientific, is that our universe is but one
    of a huge number of universes, called the multiverse, which have a
    wide range of values for the strength of the nuclear force, the amount
    of dark energy, and many other fundamental parameters. In most of
    those universes, these values would not lie within the narrow range
    permitting life to emerge. We live in one of the life-friendly
    universes because otherwise we wouldn’t be here to ask the question.
    Our existence, and our universe itself, is simply an accident, one
    throw of the cosmic dice.
    …
    There’s one more disturbing aspect of the multiverse idea. Even if this multitude of other universes are real, there may well be no way to prove or disprove their existence. By definition, a universe is a self-contained region of space and time that cannot send a signal to another such region even into the infinite future. Thus, a universe cannot communicate with another universe.

    The hypothesized boatload of universes must be accepted or rejected as
    a matter of faith.

    Just as scientists do not like accidents, they dislike being forced to
    accept things they cannot prove. But the multiverse, and other aspects
    of this strange cosmos we find ourselves in, may be not only not
    unknown to us at this moment, but fundamentally unknowable.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2022/09/multiverse-hypothesis-cosmic-life-rare/671371/
    (subscription?)

    The multiverse must be accepted as a matter of faith. Exactly this.

    1. I came away wondering why people call it degrowth?
      I can only think that somehow the term comes across as more palatable, a manageable path.
      Which is probably BS.

      Lets be clear- we are talking about Contraction…of energy availability/affordability, of employment, of general prosperity, of GDP,
      and these these factors will lead over a few decades to contraction of population. And probably a severe contraction in democracy and civil liberties in the world.

      just about nobody has digested this notion. nibbling at the edges.

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