62 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum, October 12, 2022”

    1. I am going to put my neck on the line here and say the core and headline cpi will come in lower largely due to drop in energy prices and the strong USD. Which might cause a bear market rally in the stockmarket.

      But next cpi reading will be above expectation again which will cause the next leg down in the stock market.

    2. https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?blog=Market-Ticker

      “The facts are this folks: The gains in asset prices were based on nothing but hot air, they’re coming back out like it or not, and if you’ve been expected them to hold you’re about to find out the hard way that your alleged “wealth” was illusory and has disappeared.”

      Much of the alleged “wealth” floating around is really “leverage”. Are you wealthy if your assets are 80% leveraged and interest rates are now going up?

  3. I’ve been reading about nickel hydrogen batteries.
    Does anybody here know if there’s real potential in terms of scaling up production and getting the price down?

    1. The next big thing bringing battery prices down is the sodium-iron battery, ramped up by CATL to be delivered next year. It’s not a lab example, it’s ramping up the supply chains for real mass production.

      They even eliminated the copper for the interconnectors and replaced it with aluminium.

      After this, they want to make it a bit more energy dense in the next steps already prepared.

      With this design, really no rare elements are needed – ideal for mass production. Stationary it will be good(as safe as LiFePO), and for low-medium ranged cars and busses. Or cold weather, it has no problems up to -20 Celsius.

    1. “which was in response to the truck bombing on the bridge”, which was in response to….

      1. Military ethics interest me. Putin calls the bridge attack a terrorist attack. I beg to differ.
        The primary purpose of ethics education is to provide individuals with the capacity to morally distinguish right from wrong when laws are no longer helpful, and to write unnecessarily wordy papers and then complain that nobody is interested in reading them.
        I feel it’s morally permissible to attack the Kerch Bridge in the way Putin alleges it was done, using a civy transport co., by virtue of the fact that the Kerch Bridge is a large element of the Russian military’s main supply route, and Ukraine has a clear prima facie case to defend itself against invasion.

        Daughter of Putin ally Alexander Dugin killed by car bomb in Moscow
        https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/21/daughter-of-putin-ally-alexander-dugin-killed-in-car-bomb-in-moscow-reports

  6. Many takes about how Putin would use nukes if cornered due to problems back home fail to reckon with the unmanageable vortex of domestic problems he would suddenly face if having used a nuke in Ukraine and then Ukraine et al didn’t immediately and unconditionally surrender.
    Losing a big war comes with intra-elite management issues, but bits and pieces of those are manageable; using a nuke, eating the consequences that come with that, and then having strategic-deterrence credibility crisis / failing to get a war-termination on top of all the pre-existing crisis that triggered the nuke use doesn’t seem like a way of making it better for Putin.

    1. Survivalist,

      Diverging a little off the topic maybe. But it is somewhat nostalgic to revert back to the principles that started WW2. There was appeasement following a moment of resolve, and then the George VI speech, with exactly the same arguments for the war as today.

      https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofBritain/The-Kings-Speech/

      The key message is that if the rather primive doctrine that “might is right” were to prevail, then the civilised world would be in danger. And that we would not stand up to this challenge would be unthinkable.

      Same arguments today. Same rationale and principle.

  7. Animal populations experience average decline of almost 70% since 1970, report reveals
    https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/13/almost-70-of-animal-populations-wiped-out-since-1970-report-reveals-aoe

    I’ve been trying to get my head around what’s going on with some of todays youth movements. I’ve found that there’s quite a bit of interesting stuff on Gen Z (plus) climate change (plus) nihilism. I wonder what sort of a range of options they think they have?

    45% of Millennials and Gen Z Cite Climate Change As A Reason They’re Not Saving for Retirement
    “Nearly half of Millennials and Gen-Z say they’re not planning for retirement as issues like climate change threaten their future, according to a new study from Fidelity Investments.”
    https://www.greenqueen.com.hk/amp/millennials-gen-z-climate-change-retirement/

    1. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a long decline in auto sales in Europe and US.
      For one thing the real income of average people isn’t growing like it used to,
      and secondly vehicles last a lot longer than they used to.
      And quite a few urbanites have been relying heavily on ride hailing services like Uber/Lyft rather than buying their own vehicle.

      1. Also the population is aging. Old people buy fewer cars. both income and consumption peak at about age 50.
        In the world’s largest car markets, Eu, China and North America, populations of over fifties are growing, but other age groups are stable or shrinking.

      2. ” . . . .and secondly vehicles last a lot longer than they used to.”

        No way, 1960’s to 1980’s vehicles lasted longer than the current crop that are done in by electronics.

        1. In the US the average age of autos on the road is a new record over 12 yrs.
          Maybe a few people kept 1960’s-1980’s car running for a long time, but on average there was a much shorter vehicle life.
          In fact the average longevity has doubled since the mid 70’s!
          And much!!! less maintenance is needed.

        2. >done in by electronics

          Electronics have a short shelf life. I think that confuses people about their longevity. Electronic equipment lasts longer than moving mechanical parts.

  9. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_IqHLg0CSc

    Nancy Pelosi blocks legislation to prevent congress from trading stocks.

    Of course Pelosi is a multi-millionaire with her Stock Broker husband by trading on inside info.

    She has amazingly consistently beaten the S&P index for years.

    No conflict of interest to here!!

    1. …. flies from gated community to gated community. That’s in part why the roads suck.

      1. Sorry for the American rant, I know this is an international website.

        Pelosi is 82 and has a net worth of over 100 million ( her salary is 200k a year…hmmmmmm)

        Yet she is so greedy she can’t allow a basic intelligent decision to leave behind a better country.

        What a b****!

        1. Peak Avacado, what in the holy hell are you talking about? Obviously, Pelosi is not concerned about money. Her congressional salary is of absolutely no concern to her. She is serving her country, and that is all. Money does not enter the picture for her. Yet you assume she is greedy and just wants more. How fucking dumb of you. All she wants to do is leave behind a better country.

          We had a tiny wannabe Hitler who tried to overthrow democracy. And a few idiots think he is the hero and question the motives of those who only want to save our democracy. Sorry for the rant but you goddamn idiots really piss me off.

          1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_IqHLg0CSc

            LOL….I don’t support Trump.

            Do you think Congress should be able to trade in stocks? This seems obvious that this is a conflict of interest.

            She invested 10 -32 million in stocks last years. I suppose she doesn’t care if she gets a return.

            Pelosi has outperformed the S&P because she is trading on insider info. How is that making the country better?

            The link I posted was from a liberal progressive news organisation.

            I am not a goddam idiot.

            2. Then why is she blocking a bill stopping Congress trading in stocks WHILE SHE IS DOING IT.

              Why block that if she doesn’t care?

              A goddamn idiot thinks Congress trading in stocks isn’t going to affect their decision making.

              “A Worldview based on Evidence” Ron….Not your liberal biases

              Look I have been baffled why Warrent Buffet in his 90s and top 5 richest men in the world is still obsessed with making more money.

              For some it is never enough……….

            4. I agree peak avocado,

              Ron is a god damn idiot who never questions his political bias.

            5. Of course Pelosi wants to make money. Everyone wants to make money. I said Pelosi was not in it for the money.

              I apologise for the rant but of course I have political bias. Everone does. And I apologize for calling you an idiot. The only idiots out there are those stupid Trumpites who think Trump won. I am sure you are a lot smarter than that.

            6. Sorry Ron, you’re a fucking God damned idiot if you think somehow Pelosi is some sort of above board politician who isn’t as corrupt as hell. My wife works on the hill and the stories she has are literally out of the stratosphere on how corrupt she is.

              My favorite is when Ted Kennedy, drunk as fuck, made a move on my wife on the little train that runs underground on capital hill. She fought back of course because she’s a respectable human being. I’d murder him myself and have my dermestid beetles eat his flesh given the chance . But luckily his fat fucking piece of shit ass died before that was possible. Democrats are no better than Republicans when the rubber meets the road.

            7. LNGuy, then color me a goddamn fucking idiot. I know cynics like you see every politician as corrupt. A lot of them are. But not all. If every politician is corrupt, as you propose, then we might as well give up, there is no hope for this nation or for the world.

              What makes a total cynic a total cynic? I am going to see if I can find a book that will explain that. Perhaps it was caused by some kind of childhood trauma. 🤣

            8. No worries on the idiot call.

              Peak oil and politics is high stakes. Emotions will run high.

              We all have to rant sometimes.

          2. As people get all lathered up about Pelosi and wealth/stocks, lets not forget that she is also a big hero on a very important issue in America and the world of Democracy- that being
            Her as the biggest obstacle to the Trump/Republican attempt to role back the democratic process in the USA over the past 6 years.
            If you’d prefer a drift towards autocracy/theocracy, or the anarchy of a broken government…..
            then yes- lose sight of that.

            And if it is really inequality of wealth and privilege that is the issue that bothers you, then your hero in the US is Elizabeth Warren. No other political leader has their eye on the ball more clearly and determined than she does.

            2. From Peak’s insider link-

              “Sold all of his shares (25,000 total) on July 26, 2022, valued between $1 million and $5 million at an average price of $164.05 and for a total loss of $341,365”

              The link is a election season political hit piece. Pelosi’s husband is trading options and the piece is quoting the underlining value of the ownership of the stock(miss leading) not options. Which makes Mr. Pelosi trades appear lot richer than they are.

              He also must not have gotten Nancy’s insiders memo on stock trading for the last year. Buying Calls in a long term down market is not the road to riches. It’s a loosing defensive gambling strategy.

              LNGuy- “My favorite is when Ted Kennedy, drunk as fuck, made a move on my wife on the little train that runs underground on capital hill. She fought back of course because she’s a respectable human being”

              Ted Kennedy was a Senator and Nancy has spent her career in the House. What does Nancy have to do with this? I guess Ted was running a 100 feet under club in DC. And now you have exposed it. What’s next, are you going to accuse Nancy of raping yourself LNGuy ? Did your wife file charges ? I didn’t think so. Just talk it up, blame Nancy. I got it now.

              By the way, why is this your favorite ? Did you enjoy it or just hoping to be the father of Ted’s child because of Republicans stance on Abortion ? Sick, sick, sick

          3. btw- I looked up the issue of the stock trading restrictions and the non-hype rationale behind the decision making on this-
            She has no intention of bringing up a vote on this issue that does not have the votes to pass, and the bill up for consideration was looking very like to fail, with zero republican support and more than a couple Democrats not onboard with it- many of the progressive wing feel that it does not go far enough and some of the more conservative democrats feel that it goes too far.
            She has a long history of getting the process right, and spending her political capital on issues that can have an upside outcome.

            This explanation is sure to be unsatisfying to the right wing I am certain.

            1. Thanks, Hickory. That makes a lot of sense. No Speaker and no Senate leader would bring a bill to the floor that they know have no chance of passing. Democrats would not do it and Republicans would not do it. It’s just common sense that’s all. But those Trumpites who know absolutely nothing about how the legislature works will, of course, find a way to blame it on the Democrats.

            2. Actually I have observed Ron that sometimes the leaders do bring up a bill that they know will lose just to make a point about an issue, and to force the opponents to cast a public vote on it.
              But they do not do this too often since it does expend political capital on a failing issue.

              I wish that Pelosi had done so in this case anyway,
              but she know 1000 x’s better than any of us how to make those decisions.

              I also point out how so very easily that people latch onto the most ridiculous/simplistic take on so many issues, like this one. As if they were fish that just couldn’t wait to swallow the barbed hook with a plastic lure.

            1. No one has been more scrutinized than Pelosi. She is working under a magnifying glass that and 40 million Californians are watching, ready to pounce on the slightest misstep. She could not get away with anything.

              Californians are picky people. They have kicked past governors out with recall elections. Pelosi must run for reelection every two years. If she were dirty, you would know the facts because Californians would be screaming it from the top of their lungs. And she knows that.

              However, I am sure there is insider trading going on in Washington, on both sides of the aisle. However, that is not our major problem. Our major problem is we have a bunch of knuckleheads who wish to overthrow democracy. They want to throw out the vote of the people. They want a dictator as they have in Russia. But we have fought wars, and millions have died in defense of our democracy. They will not succeed. But if they do, all those brave soldiers will have died in vain.

              Thanks for the exchange Peak A. I think we have both learned something from it.

            2. ” I just think Pelosi is a dirty dog.”

              What did you expect from someone in politics?

              Politics attracts people who crave power the way shit attracts flies.

              Get used to it, for there is nothing you can do about it.

      2. Survivalist —
        The real reason the roads suck in America is that there are too many of them. They have low value and aren’t worth repairing.

        Everybody thinks “Why not just widen the road?” One answer is that every road is a liability because 15-20 years down the line it will have to be repaired. If it didn’t generate any new tax money in the mean time it will be a net loss to the government that built it.

        American sprawl grows either by getting developers to build roads when they build new subdivisions, or by getting state or federal money. In both cases, cities treat this as a windfall and good for local growth. Twenty years down the line, they realize that there was no increase in the tax base but a massive increase in maintenance costs. So the roads (and sewers and other infrastructure) decays.

        In the electricity industry there is a huge discussion going on about the future of the coal and nuclear industry. What few comment on is that the fleet is old. In fact despite the wave of shutdowns in recent years, the US has some of the oldest coal fired plants in the world. This has kept electricity prices down in the past, but eventually they will need to be shut down.
        https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/average-age-of-existing-coal-power-plants-in-selected-regions-in-2020

        Nuclear power has the same problem, especially in France, where all the plants were built in a short time frame, and they are all suddenly having problems at the same time. People talk about a nuclear renaissance, but in the next 20 years the industry is going to take a massive hit, as the chart shows. There is little hope of a building spree that will compensate before 2050.

        https://www.statista.com/statistics/517060/average-age-of-nuclear-reactors-worldwide/

        Getting back to roads, there is a lot of talk about urban freeway removal in America. This isn’t just because of the greens Socialism or Gen Z or whatever — a major factor is that these roads are falling apart, and a huge amount of money would be needed to fix them. They haven’t brought prosperity to American cities, so why bother?

        https://www.lincolninst.edu/publications/articles/2020-03-deconstruction-ahead-urban-highway-removal-changing-cities

        1. Nuclear power has the same problem, especially in France, where all the plants were built in a short time frame, and they are all suddenly having problems at the same time.

          No problem- in 24000 years they will only have half the problem.

          How were things 24000 years ago?

  10. Have any Republican politicians accused KSA of being in league with Russia over the OPEC cut, or is that sort of thing more of a Democrat talking point?

    “The Saudis are working to get Trump reelected and for the MAGA Republicans to win the midterms.”
    https://theintercept.com/2022/10/11/mbs-saudi-oil-biden-october-surprise-election-interference/

    While some Democrats have called for KSA to experience consequences for siding with Russia, it’s more likely they feel that way for KSA siding with the GOP. It’s interesting how Democrats display a pattern of accusing those who don’t support them with ‘taking Russia’s side’. Very knee jerk. Very pee pee tape.

  11. Saturday morning trivia.

    INDIA EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE CHINA AS WORLD’S MOST POPULOUS COUNTRY THIS YEAR

    While Germany has grown by just 6% over the past 50 years, Pakistan and Nigeria have nearly quadrupled their populations. Half a century ago, there were only six countries with populations of over 100 million. Today, there are 15 countries past that mark, with Vietnam positioned to hit that milestone next.

    Once India becomes the world’s largest country, it will likely remain so for many decades in the future, peaking in the 2060s (unless there are substantial changes in projected growth rates). India’s peak population will stand at around 1.7 billion people. The world’s population is expected to peak later, around the 2080s.

    Humanity’s peak population is expected to be about 10.5 billon.

    1. That estimate has dropped by a half a billion from 11 bn in 2100 recently, due to rapidly falling birth rates.

      On a side note, Germany will probably grow by 1-2% this year, thanks to Putin’s war. Russia and Ukraine are emptying out.

      1. Any idea about what the total outflow from Russia and Ukraine is since the beginning of the invasion?

        When will be the last dates for chimpanzee, gorilla and orangutan to be still living outside of a few zoos?

        1. Well, as you probably know, the world is in the midst of an extinction crisis. This extinction crisis is unprecedented in its scope and scale. It is estimated that we are losing species at an alarming rate, 100-1,000 times the natural rate, with as many as 30-50% of all species at extinction risk in the next few decades. This loss of biological diversity has serious implications for the future of life on earth. But, leaving more room for people, I guess!

          1. DNA is digested into component small molecule fragments as it passes through the small intestine, and therefore the blueprint for the last individual of all other primate species will not be preserved in the fecal matter of the humans who are gathered around the fire-pit on a particular smokey and hot day a handful of decades from now.
            They may actually be using their own fecal matter for the cooking fuel.

        2. Hickory,
          Millions have fled the Ukraine since the invasion. Since the early nineties, Ukraine has lost maybe a quarter of its population.
          Bulgaria is even more extreme. It’s lost something like a third of its population since 1990.

        1. This goes along with the idea that the number of people in the world who can afford oil products is greater than ever, and growing.

  13. “The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 38, down from 46 in September. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.”

    Things are getting interesting—

  14. Your Wednesday morning laugh (or, Only in America),

    FULL-SCALE NOAH’S ARK — A SHOWCASE FOR US CREATIONISTS

    “A full-sized model of Noah’s Ark sitting in rural Kentucky promotes a worldview that draws visitors from across the US — that the theory of evolution is false. The Ark Encounter and the associated Creation Museum espouse the belief that God literally created the Earth in six days around 4,000 BC. Evangelical Christians flock to see the spectacular staging and sharp denunciations of scientific facts such as that dinosaurs became extinct about 65 million years ago. Visitors also reflect America’s divided politics as the country heads into midterm elections, with creationists often aligned with the Republican Party on issues such as abortion and gay rights.”

    One wonders if their museum has a display on the wonders of radiometric dating.

    https://phys.org/news/2022-10-full-scale-noah-arka-showcase-creationists.html

    1. Interesting when you think about the role of ‘belief’ in evolution of species/survival.
      For an animal to use belief rather real world experience in guiding their behavior would clearly be a survival disadvantage- A wolf goes where they smell food, not where they ‘believe’ food may be.
      I suspect humans are the only species that uses belief to guide their behavior,
      yet so far have gotten away with it without extinction.
      Although if you consider the 10’s of millions of humans who have been killed by others because the victims beliefs were not ‘correct’, you will understand that the performance of the species has been far from unaffected.

      It is a faulty brain that is so very vulnerable to manipulation and will eagerly embrace false narrative as a mob.
      That mob may soon sacrifice democracy on the alter of mass delusion.

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