143 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum May 11, 2023”

  2. Hideaway, Hickory, Dennis:

    “This measurement, known as a plant’s capacity factor, is based on the plant’s electricity generation as a percentage of its SUMMER capacity value for plants with a full-year of operation”. All caps by Hideaway.

    OK, I think we agree that the capacity factor is generation/capacity. The question is, what capacity? I read the EIA’s sentence as “annual generation/capacity as recorded in summer” ie how many panels they had in summer, irrespective of generation. Does this make it any clearer?

    https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=39832

    1. John Norris,

      The EIA tends to use the term net summer capacity for the capacity of a power plant, Hideaway finds this confusing, Hickory and I understand that the summer capacity of a solar PV plant is its maximum capacity and a capacity factor of 25% for the year means that over the entire year the plant produces 25% of the maximum capacity (output at noon on a sunny day near the summer solistice).

      The following page from the EIA’s Electric Power Monthly gives the capacity factors

      https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=table_6_07_b

      1. I use the term ‘Capacity Factor’ in the standard way, as is the convention across the global industry.

        Intentional ignorance has transitioned from a source of personal embarrassment to an effective political tactic, effective 2016 in the US. Hideaway is perfecting his skills.
        I dont buy it, not for a second.

        About 80% of the worlds people live in places where solar PV is a viable option for electricity in a world approaching peak fossil fuel, at the current relative price…relative to all other sources of energy.

        The other roughly 20% live in places where the relative price for solar PV energy is currently not the best deal in town, simply because sunlight reaching the surface is less abundant on an annual basis.

      2. Chart below on utility scale capacity factor for “renewables” from Electric Power Monthly page linked above

        click on chart for larger view.

          1. Longview,

            I imagine there are times of year when water levels are low and the hydro plant cannot operate at full capacity. They may wait until periods of high demand and maximize revenue and save on wear and tear on their equipment, but that’s a guess on my part.

            1. That is correct Dennis. Many dams out west juggle seasonal rainfall, flood control, and salmon runs factors to adjust flow through the turbines.
              And many dams just arnt filled up in some years.

    2. From the EIA themselves…
      ” EIA reports electric generation capacity as net summer capacity in most of its electricity data reports.”

      https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/electricity-in-the-us-generation-capacity-and-sales.php

      EIA definition from their own glossary…
      “Net summer capacity: The maximum output, commonly expressed in megawatts (MW), that generating equipment can supply to system load, as demonstrated by a multi-hour test, at the time of summer peak demand (period of June 1 through September 30.)”

      https://www.eia.gov/tools/glossary/index.php?id=Net%20summer%20capacity

      From the fine print of the table Dennis linked to, explaining what is in the table….
      “Time adjusted capacity for month rows is the summer capacity of generators in operation for the entire month; units that began operation during the month or that retired during the month are excluded. Time adjusted capacity for year rows is a time weighted average of the month rows.”

      What the EIA uses is smoke and mirrors to mislead, like so many other reporting bodies. It is exactly correct in their adjusted terminology, it is not what people generally believe it to be. It is not just plain old “capacity factor”, which is why in their documents they clearly use the term SUMMER capacity, not annual capacity.

      From IRENA again, The International Renewable ENergy Association, a body fully enthused about renewables showing them in a positive light at every opportunity…
      2020 figures from here….
      https://www.irena.org/Data/View-data-by-topic/Capacity-and-Generation/Country-Rankings
      USA photovoltaic capacity, 74.693 Gw. USA total electrical generation from photovoltaic 115,902 Gwh.

      https://www.irena.org/Publications/2022/Jul/Renewable-Energy-Statistics-2022

      This calculates to 4.25hrs/d average throughout the year, or an overall capacity factor of 17.66% for all USA photovoltaic generation in 2020. (the latest year for these statistics from IRENA).

      According to the EIA utility scale solar produced 68% of all solar electricity in 2020 ….
      ” the electric power sector continues to produce the most solar generation, increasing from 68% of total solar generation in 2020″
      https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=50357

      For the 24.7% summer capacity number mentioned by both Dennis and Hickory to be the annual capacity factor, it becomes mathematically impossible for the other 32% of small scale generated to bring the average capacity factor to 17.66% that is displayed by IRENA data.

      1. Hideaway
        That’s really green energys plan fake it till you make it. But they’re not going to make it. The installed boiler plate capacity has to be 5 times larger than the present generation capacity it can’t be done. The general public is too lazy or distracted to take the time to figure it out. Some smart people have like Warren Buffet who is one of largest windmill developers. He makes no bones about the fact he does it solely for the tax breaks. At the same time he’s buying oil and gas.

      2. The Irena data does not account for capacity that has not operated for 12 months. Also small scale PV generation is not accurately reported, only utility scale has good numbers for net generation.

        The proper comparison is utility scale to utility scale, the EIA gives us that in the chart I have posted. The 24.7 % capacity factor is the correct number, end of story.

  4. Dennis, You now see government default and subsequent
    Deflation/Depression as likely?

    1. Hickory,

      Yes. I have little faith that a compromise will be worked out between the President and Congress as the inmates seem to be running the asylum, particularly in the House of Representatives. In the Senate, 43 Republican Senators have signed a letter saying they will block the Senate from passing a clean bill to raise the debt limit (as was done three times while Trump was president and it was deemed that deficits didn’t matter by those same Republican Senators.) There was a time when the Senators behaved more rationally, but it is no longer the case.

      Unfortunately many see this as being the same as a government shutdown, which is not that big a deal and has happened on several occasions when a budget agreement could not be reached in Congress.

      This is very different is would be a global financial catastrophe. We are about three weeks away. The government will no longer be able to pay its bills some time between June 1 and June 15, the exact date is unknown because government receipts from taxes are variable.

      The attitude in the Republican caucus is, “that’s a nice economy you have there, it would be a shame if something happened to it.”

      1. Dennis,

        I think they will reach a compromise on the 11th hour. I find it unlikely they will let the U.S government default on its debt. Even though it is inevitable in my opinion, and the bigger the deficit the harder it would be to recover from it but yea, as with the whole economic system its a case of kicking the proverbial can down the road.

        1. IRON MIKE —

          I agree, that’s what they have always done before, leave it until the last day and reach a comprimise. Why not keep things going the way they are, until they can’t any longer. Planet Earth be damned.

            1. From outside, it may look like the US has a functioning government, but I assure you this time may well be different. The last time it was this bad was 2011, this is not the typical budget impasse, which happens quite often. The current House bill passed by 2 votes and many only voted for it because they never expected to see it become law, the Senate has to agree and they knew this law had zero chance of passing in the Senate, it basically is a FU to the Democrats who control the Senate and to Biden who can veto the measure.

              You do not appreciate how radical the right wing of the Republican Party has become, World be damned is exactly their motto.

            2. Unfortunately, I agree Dennis.
              We are dealing with ignorant and incompetent people.

            3. Hightrekker,

              It seems to be a prerequisite for election in many parts (maybe all parts) of the United States.

          2. There’s nothing to compromise about the debt limit is complete bullshit and should be abolished.

            The whole thing is just Republicans trashing the world economy to get likes on Twitter. But I guess social media reputation is all that really matters any more.

            1. Hightrekker:
              ” ignorant and incompetent people.”
              Somehow that’s not enough. You at least have to add self-righteous, malicious and hate-filled.

        2. Is this Iron Mike the same one…now taking the roll of the downunder polyanna?

          1. Hickory,

            Dennis and I have decided to swap roles till the end of the month. 😀

        3. Iron Mike,

          Unfortunately reaching an agreement will be difficult, I disagree that default is inevitable, this is just a problem with the existence of a debt ceiling existing. Most nations do not have such a limitation, if budgets are enacted that are not balanced debt is issued to finance deficit spending.

          If governments want lower government debt levels they can raise taxes, reduce spending or both.

          Note that many agree with you including the stock market, though bond markets are beginning to react. In the past 11 days the rate on 4 week US treasury bills has increased from 4.32% to 5.59%, we may continue to see these rates rise which will increase borrowing costs.

          In any case my hope is that you are correct, but you may be too much of a Pollyanna. 🙂

          1. Dennis,

            It would take huge austerity measures to get the U.S deficit back into some form of sanity let alone a surplus. But no one will implement this because it would spell the end for any career politician who even dances around the subject.

            Look at the scale of it. The U.S national deficit is on average about 64 times the number of stars and planets in the milky way galaxy. What a mess.

            Haha come on Dennis, someone has to take the role of the yin to your yang. 😀

            In all honesty though, your concern is actually concerning because usually you play the role of pollyanna, and if your saying this time it is different, maybe it is. And you also live in the U.S so you would know better.

            1. Medicare and Medicaid cost the US 2 trillion dollars last year.

              This year it will be 2.2 trillion dollars.

              That is growing at 9% per year and can only be stopped by destroying the medical system.

              Austerity is coming…it just won’t be voluntary.

              http://www.market-ticker.org

            2. Iron Mike,

              The size of the deficit could gradually be reduced to zero, from 1998 to 2001 there was a budget Surplus, it is simply a matter of either higher taxes or lower spending, prior to 1974 in the US was fairly close to a balanced budget most years.

              https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSD

              Andre the Giant,

              A public healthcare system like most OECD nations would reduce healthcare costs, the US needs to leave its third world status in this regard.

            4. Karl helped to create the American Tea Party and one of the first internet companies (MCSNet).

              He also has served as Campaign Treasurer for some political candidates.

              He presented how the medical system will destroy the country (temporarily in his opinion) to some Congress critters if you don’t get rid of medical monopolies.

              He said they understood, but do not want to touch it.

              He is a peak oil and climate change denier. He thinks you can convert coal, natural gas and kerogen to oil. His climate change denial is baffling because he is a very smart guy who uses science to defend his positions when science agrees with what he thinks (that’s the rub!).

              He is no joke financially. One of the best I have ever encountered.

            5. “A public healthcare system like most OECD nations would reduce healthcare costs, the US needs to leave its third world status in this regard.”

              Exactly.

              and countries that use USA Medical equipment and procedures (Japan) are paying 20% of what the US is paying for the same stuff.

              When you break up monopolies (which are illegal obviously ) and allow competition to enter the market your prices fall.

              Medical is 20% of GDP – so reduce that to 4%

              What does that do to the medical industry?

              KABOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMM!!!!!!!

              This is one of the most obvious things I have ever seen that even the doomer guys won’t acknowledge.

            6. It would take huge austerity measures to get the U.S deficit back into some form of sanity let alone a surplus.

              I don’t think this is true. A big problem is that America spends a lot of money on dumb stuff like urban highways, aircraft carriers and ethanol, instead of things that grow the economy. Another problem — the problem that crashed the Greek economy — is that the country neglects (or refuses) to collect taxes.

              The problem is not too much spending. The problem is where the money goes.

            7. “It would take huge austerity measures to get the U.S deficit back into some form of sanity let alone a surplus.”

              It requires enforcing the law on illegal monopolistic practices in the medical industry to achieve an

              80% percent reduction in price.

              This isn’t Democrat vs Republican, it is the medical industry that has America bent over.

              1 out of every 5 dollars spent in the largest economy on the planet is given to the MEDICAL INDUSTRY

              2 Trillion dollars a year and growing exponentially on Medicare and Medicaid isn’t the root cause of the problem??????

              I would hate to see what the root cause is?

              If the Medicare and Medicaid problem got fixed everything else would easily fit in the budget

              2 Trillion and growing rapidly to 400 Million and stable (an 80% reduction in price)

              is the SOLUTION.


              The Feds walk up to a Hospital/Medical CEO, you put handcuffs on them and throw them in prison and all of sudden it all stops.

              And people would still get their medicare and medicaid

              2 or 3 year later, when the industry recovers.

              Its gonna be a bitch for 2 or 3 years…..and if oil starts declining………………

      2. Well Dennis…I sure hope you are wrong. It would be a big unforced error. Unless you are one who believes that it would be ‘fun’ to break the system and see what the rubble looks like.
        The US seems to be crumbling under partisanship.
        I cant predict the outcome on this episode, but we are surely playing with a fire that can burn down this democracy, stability and the patches of economic well-being that exist here.

        1. Hickory,

          No I think the Republicans may take us over the waterfall this time and unfortunately this will affect the World as US debt underpins financial transactions Worldwide. US Treasuries are considered the gold standard for safe assets, when this is no longer believed, watch out below.

          This is certainly not the outcome I am hoping for, just the outcome that appears likely in my view.

          1. Last time I calculated it a couple of years ago (to verify a claim) US debt in dollars stacked in one dollar notes would reach to the moon ~4 TIMES, i.e. you could climb it fairly comfortably if stacked properly, with plenty of oxygen of course.
            Please correct me if I´m wrong, but I think that´s a bit of a problem.
            Interested to see the new figure if someone has the time and could crunch the numbers, shouldn´t be that hard.

            1. Laplander,

              As a percentage of GDP US debt is about average for OECD nations.

              No it is not a problem. That’s a myth.

      3. Dennis , a compromise will be found out . My WAG learning from the past . There will be a selective default on some American ( not international ) liabilities . You will see the old stuff — National Parks closed down , Smithsonian Institute , museums etc will be shutdown , This will be an effort to save cash so as to pay pensions etc . Eventually they will open after the compromise . The issue of default is not a national issue , it is international one . The moment the US defaults all L/C ‘s in USD will be invalid and that will mean the collapse of trade and the collapse of the monetary financial system worldwide . What you see is theatrics in the US political scene . Understand , the FED is the father( daddy ) of the monetary system but there is the GODFATHER , it is the BIS in Switzerland . Me ( FED) vs Ali ( BIS ) . Where will you place your bet ? Grab the popcorn and enjoy the theatrics and farce .

        1. Selling US government debt was easy back when everyone in the world needed to hold US dollars in order to trade with each other. But now that everyone is in a rush to get away from the dollar and to switch to trading in their own currencies, US debt is no longer so attractive. For most of the world, their main trading partner is now China . Now more than half of China’s trade is denominated in Yuan . This is from the blog of Dimitry Orlov .

      4. someone ring a bell or something – dennis is more pessimistic than I am! Color me shocked! 🙂

        although the republican party is a death cult, I don’t think they are ready to push the “blow it all up” button yet. though I have shifted my bond position from 30-year weighted to 10-year and corporate bond weighted as a precaution. I’m not that optimistic.

        1. Have you ever listened to these far right Republicans?

          They seem very willing to take it all down.

          1. See my post below Kleiber’s below. You are correct. And you certainly are not alone in your opinion. Perhaps clearest example: US 1 year CDS spreads are at all-time highs. Forever is a long time.

        2. ” I don’t think they are ready to push the “blow it all up” button yet.”

          Please take into account their faith rooted in Christian eschatology. They may see it as just enacting the will of God.

          1. True-
            Cabbages For Christ are quite ignorant, and ideologically destructive.

          2. Theses “Christians” are primarily interested in finding someone to burn at the stake for disagreeing with them.

  5. Interesting review of debt ceiling and arguments around using 14th Amendment Section 4 to circumvent.

    https://www.cato.org/blog/debt-ceiling-unconstitutional-what-about-default

    I am not a lawyer so may be missing lots of stuff, but the piece seems well reasoned.

    Another webpage possibly relevant

    https://www.politifact.com/article/2023/may/12/could-president-biden-use-the-14th-amendment-to-he/

    Another position

    https://www.aei.org/politics-and-public-opinion/why-the-14th-amendment-should-be-kept-out-of-a-debt-ceiling-crisis/

    Essentially this last piece suggests not using 14th Amendment, but simply ignore the debt ceiling and simply continue to issue debt.

    Another piece

    https://www.abajournal.com/news/article/is-the-debt-limit-unconstitutional-some-argue-the-answer-is-yes-based-on-the-14th-amendments-public-debt-clause

    and

    https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/lawsuit-yellen-should-ignore-unconstitutional-debt-limit

    1. Dennis,

      The last question: Who would have legal standing to challenge the president if he borrowed above the ceiling?

      Like you i am far from any legal expert. But the whole system depends on faith. If people lose faith in the economic system or the USD then thats pretty chaotic.

      I think if the president borrowed above the ceiling, it might mean a loss of faith in the system (both political and economic), and i am sure U.S enemies abroad would be sure to push the narrative that way, which would ultimately also mean a loss of faith in the USD as a means of international trade settlement. CCP would be rubbing their hands and licking their lips if this plays out. In my opinion of course.

      1. Iron Mike,

        The point is that there should not be a debt ceiling, this does not exist in most nations. A budget is enacted and if it results in deficits, bonds are issued and the money is repaid over time.

        The President could choose to simply ignore the debt ceiling, if Congress wants less debt, they have the power to enact laws to either spend less or collect more revenue.

        The question comes down to this: would defaulting on the debt oblgations inspire greater confidence than simply ignoring a debt limit that is artificially imposed. In any case lawyers that know more than me have argued that the debt ceiling contradicts Section 4 of the 14th Amendment.

        It would be better if Congress enacted a clean debt ceiling increase, or better yet suspended the debt ceiling until Jan 1, 2500 as it does not make sense to enact laws that result in budget deficits while at the same time not allowing debt to be issued to meet those obligations.

        1. “bonds are issued and the money is repaid over time”

          The bonds are paid back by issuing new bonds.

          You can get away with that in a declining interest rate environment.

          Its a bitch when interest rates are heading in the other direction.

          1. Andre,

            The actions in US Congress will tend to raise borrowing costs as US debt may no longer be considered safe. This tends to increase the deficit. Good for the wealthy who hold most of the debt.

            1. Dennis,

              Even though I am dead, if you continue to disagree with my brilliant ideas this is what will happen…

              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_6VE-pXvak

              All jokes just fun

              And I want to acknowledge Dennis’s great work on this site.

              IMO, what goes up…must go down…It’s called central tendency and it averages out over time (by definition). The central tendency of interest rates is not 2 percent.

              This is not good when you have intentionally tried to keep things down (interest) for decades.

              The up (8% or 10%?) is coming it will be fear of default or scared lenders.

          2. It works with an increasing resource base.
            However, after Nov 2018, that is a struggle.

            1. Good point. But I would point to 2008 as when the difficulty began. Without QE bonds might have failed a while ago.

        2. Yellen and Biden have both stated publicly she is doubtful about using either the 14th amendment or the Mint Coin. It could quickly get tied up in litigation anyway. Chaos would most likely still result if Republicans stand firm.

          This country has been fighting over debt, money supply, banks literally since the founding of the country: Jefferson vs Hamilton, the Greenbacks, Bimetalism, the Gold Standard. This is a throwback classic.

          In general I would be for a more expansive money supply. But since most money just flows to the top of the heap and makes stuff and services I want to buy expensive, I’d rather shrink it.

  6. What site am I on? I don’t recognise this variant of Dennis and it’s scaring me.

    1. It is very concerning that Dennis is concerned. But he is astutely observing reality (as usual) – the Republicans are “ideologically committed”. What they are committed to is a little unclear. Debts and Big Government never seem to matter when Republicans are in charge. But pointing out hypocrisy amongst politicians is like pointing at “air”.

      There is precedence for what the Republicans are doing and it ironically goes back to the very founding of their party. In the election of 1860, the extreme pro-slavery wing of the Democrats basically “threw” the election, splitting themselves off from Douglas and the Northern doe-faced Democrats. Remember Lincoln won in a FOUR WAY race. This was done intentionally to “force” the hand of the South and push them into war. The attack on Fort Sumter soon followed. In effect, the Southern Democrats lost “on purpose” to push forward the conflict. Essentially they AGREED with Lincoln: I believe this government cannot endure, permanently half slave and half free. I do not expect the Union to be dissolved – I do not expect the house to fall – but I do expect it will cease to be divided. It will become all one thing, or all the other.”

      The big problem here is that it is really unclear what the actual divisions are. Slavery was a very clear dividing line. What is it now? Wokeism? Welfare? Medicare? Social Security? But for these brain-rotted congressmen – I don’t think it matters if they cannot articulate why Critical Race Theory is such an existential threat (hint: it isn’t). They just know it is and must be stopped. This is what Dennis is sensing I believe.

      1. It’s hard to believe than any of the prominent Republican politicians have any ideology beyond retaining power. What the hope to do with that power is hard to fathom. Looking at the legislative priorities of Republicans seems to indicate that they wish to continue the vast descripancies of wealth and garner votes from the less wealthy by enacting “culture war” legislation that causes no harm whatever to the very wealthy, such as the recent anti-abortion wave in red states. Corraling the Supreme Court was certainly a stroke of genius. Decisions like Citizens United and Dobbs grant Republicans both the money and the votes to maintain power. Neither McCarthy nor McConnell have shown any enduring political philosophy nor has Trump.

    1. Thanks Hole In Head…I did enjoy that.

      Believe it or not, I am not a military strategist but I think i have basic common sense.

      1) The Chinese don’t care about climate change.
      2) The Chinese need energy.
      3) Australia has some of the energy they need.
      4) 20 million Aussies simply cannot survive in a region with China, India, Japan, Korea, etc, etc without Nuclear Weapons.

      For Australia it is the USA or UK or be turned into dog food.

      Resources for Military. Adding 20 million people to your population (USA) is not that big a deal if you are also adding 1 trillion of GDP and Super Power resources.

      Australia’s resources are going to sky rocket in value IMO.

      1. Andre , neither am I a military strategist but your ” 20 million Aussies simply cannot survive in a region with China, India, Japan, Korea, etc, etc without Nuclear Weapons ” is incorrect . You named China , India , Japan , SK . When did they threaten Australia ? India is a member of the Quad which includes Australia and Japan . Distance between China and Australia is 3500 km . You think the Chinese don’t understand logistics ? The greatest book acknowledged on war worldwide is ” The Art of War ” by Sun Tzu . The Chinese know ” Best to use honey and not vinegar if you want to catch flies ” . Switch of the TV and stop listening to the stupid politicians . Apply logic .
        Your “For Australia it is the USA or UK or be turned into dog food.”
        Correct you will , not because of war but climate change . Once the Murray -Darling basin dries up ( which it is ) it’s over . Mate , you are fighting the wrong battle . Perk up . Be Well .

        1. Australia already lives on a continent that has been ravaged by the climate. Aussies are probably more prepared than anyone. Water desalination plants already exist.

          https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-03/chinese-warships-enter-sydney-harbour-south-china-sea-claims/11172578

          A few years ago, an unnanounced visit from the Chinese into Sydney Harbor sent a wake up call to the Australian military.

          It happened while the USA was dealing with COVID on its military vessels.

          We can’t prevent these visits.

          If the USA / UK abandon this region….I would expect Chinese aircraft carriers at a minimum to be parked off the coast of Australia.

          And when Peak Oil bites or energy shortages……Military action should be expected, it has already happened with Japan (WWII)

        2. “The Chinese read Sun Tzu, therefore we don’t need to prepare for an invasion” – defense strategy is not a good one IMO.

          Australia needs to assume that all countries in the region are aware of their resources and might try to come grab them – like Japan did in WWII

          Aircraft carriers are designed for military projection – China is working on their 3rd one.

          1. Andre , the first rule of Sun Tzu is avoid war . China is not at war with Australia . Your Ex Prime Minister says it . He also says the Aussies are the patsies in the sub deal . As to aircraft carriers in the navy —- Col Macgregor quote ” The navy has two types of vessels , one the nuclear submarine , second are ‘ sitting ducks ‘ . This is the age of missiles . Here are the videos .
            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyLD48Jb698
            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t6Bhk6OFav0

            1. Hey Hole in Head,

              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uPRlQ2HXPgI

              Canada wants to join the AUKUS agreement….

              The Forces of Freedom ( USA, UK, Australia, Canada, New Zealand…Is South Africa next?)

              Is it a reunion of the former British Commonwealth countries…JUST AS I PREDICTED!

              Its all fun and jokes for me…enjoy the banter

  8. WHITE PAPER

    NEAR-TERM INFRASTRUCTURE DEPLOYMENT TO SUPPORT ZERO-EMISSION MEDIUM- AND HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLES IN THE UNITED STATES

    This paper assesses the near-term charging and refueling infrastructure needs for Class 4-8 medium- and heavy-duty vehicles at the national and sub-national levels. Charger needs in 2025 and 2030 are projected based on zero-emission vehicle market growth, and priority locations for the deployment of charging and refueling infrastructure are identified in key areas.

    The analysis finds that, In the near term, a few U.S. states are expected to experience the highest energy needs from medium- and heavy-duty vehicle charging. Those include states that have adopted California’s Advanced Clean Trucks rule, as well as states with the largest industrial activity. California and Texas alone are projected to account for a combined 19% of charging energy needs in 2030. Within those states, charging needs will be concentrated in a few industrial areas and along freight corridors. The energy needs of long-haul trucks will concentrate on the corridors of the National Highway Freight Network (NHFN). The NHFN is projected to comprise 85% of the charging needs from long-haul trucks by 2030.

    By 2030, medium- and heavy-duty vehicle electrification is projected to increase the U.S. daily electric energy consumption by 140,000 megawatt-hours per day. This equates to around 1% of the total national electricity retail sales in 2021. High-energy demand counties are expected to experience high loads for medium- and heavy-duty vehicle charging of up to 130 MW. These power levels will require appropriate planning and early capacity building to accommodate for future transmission and distribution needs.

    County-level data on projected charging needs can be found here.
    State-level data on projected charging needs can be found here.

    https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/infrastructure-deployment-mhdv-may23.pdf

    https://theicct.org/publication/infrastructure-deployment-mhdv-may23/

    1. All this AI hype is very very reminiscent of Crypto hype. It’s certainly a great way to drive up stock prices if you are an AI adjacent company. And I’m sure there will be applications but if “AI” destroys any sector of our economy or way of life it’s because the even-less-life-like creatures like Zuck and Musk are allowed to do whatever they want at the altar of their self-assumed genius.

      https://futurism.com/ai-destroying-humanity-new-tactic

    2. Linear Regression and K-Means Clustering are going to kill us all!!!!!!

      Neural Networks that can predict a digit in a picture!!! OH NOO!!!!!!!

      AI is not out of control. The internet just allows massive amounts of access to data.

      Yes, AI can be abused….but the software has ZERO motivation to do anything.

      1. Peaak Avocado —
        I don’t see the connection to crypto hype. I do see how it is already massively changing the internet.

        For example, Google returns results for keywords that are links to web sites. Users looking for answers click the links. It makes money by monetizing the links, as do the sites.

        ChatGPT answers the question without providing the link, and does it reasonably well. So ChatGPT will kill Google and the websites it links to. This isn’t science fiction, it is already happening.

        I think a better analogy is Napster, which killed the recorded musics media (mostly CDs) industry and replaced it with streaming.

        That is just one simple and obvious example. It is also going to kill the music industry, since most pop music can be synthesized anyway, and the online art market, which is already flooded with AI art. Crypto never offered anything like that.

        It is out of control in the sense that attempts by big companies to or governments to control content seem very unlikely to succeed.

        1. Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning sound amazing, and scary and should be in a movie.

          The algorithms are the same ones from 1970s – 1980s ( for the most part ).

          Its just the Hardware ( Moore’s Law ) and Internet that has changed things.

          But AI will be a disrupter as we have already seen. Not in the horror movie style until there is a break thru in the algorithms …..IMO

          I am still waiting for my self-driving car??? They are getting better….but still not ready to unleash on the roads…

          IMO because they simply cannot adapt without human intervention

          ….which has been the flaw of all software since its inception

          1. Self driving cars aren’t there yet because of the lack of data. The learning algorithms need lots of data, which is why they are best in areas where a lot of data is available, like images or text from the internet, or game data generated by AIs playing against each other.

            I agree about the underling algorithms. I don’t expect any real breakthroughs, improvments will come by just throwing more hardware (and data) at the problem. There are already models with hundreds of trillions of parameters.

            1. This is an un-serious comment (mine):

              Why no full self driving vehicles in the LV Boring tunnel? Seems like an easy task.

              Also, there should be level 5 autonomous Formula E circuit racing where companies can pit their self driving tech head to head against their competitors.

              And while we’re at it, let’s have political candidates debate chatGPT fact bots.

        2. “ChatGPT answers the question without providing the link, and does it reasonably well. So ChatGPT will kill Google and the websites it links to. This isn’t science fiction, it is already happening.”

          except google has already been doing that for over a year. you get “google properties” when you do a google search, almost 41% of the first page is just google related answers “direct answers”. the AI just adds a “I’m not sure, but how about this” with the answer.

          and i’m sure they’ll try and replace movies and music with AI because then they won’t have to pay writers and the average hog will eat it up. I’m already convinced Citadel was conceived and written by AI.

          I guess in that sense it isn’t like crypto in that AI will be “everywhere” making everything dumber and less entertaining. As opposed to crypto being nowhere and dumber and less entertaining than sports gambling.

  11. I think most people on the thread have begun to come around on this issue, but its always good to get further confirmation of our economic read:

    https://fortune.com/2023/05/13/recession-arrived-earnings-corporate-america/

    throwing on top of that some very very major headwinds:

    the debt ceiling

    persistent sticky inflation: 4.9% CPI isn’t bad but the comps are going to get harder going forward, and I think we will be looking at 4% YoY inflation all the way through 1Q24. That means probably no rate cuts – “higher for longer”.

    china dipping back to neutral – a month ago I thought China was a bright spot. I still hold some individual Chinese stocks, but its not as good as I thought it would be. so i was wrong there.

    credit card balances are growing at fastest past in 20 years, and interest rates on those balances are at 20%!

    https://www.lendingtree.com/credit-cards/credit-card-debt-statistics/

    Real Earnings growth is down 23 months in a row. Standard of living has been deteriorating for 2 years!

    This is like Gilded Age numbers.

    https://bradleyahansen.blogspot.com/2018/02/what-happened-to-standard-of-living.html

    on the other side: AI will save us or kill us, so buy some apple stock.

    and no – this doesn’t mean the world is ending or permanent depression. I’m not exactly sure WHAT will happen but I know that 6 stocks make up most of the S&P and Nasdaq and they are Mega-Bubble Caps that everyone owns and everyone is counting on to save us. If this Mother of All Bubbles does indeed pop it will be painful for a lot of retirement accounts. Not the end of the world, just the continued immiseration of the American people.

    1. This is a ridiculous generalization. Tesla has 4 gigafactories, is building 2 more, and has $22 billion cash on hand. Hardly going bankrupt.

  14. “People of privilege will always risk their complete destruction rather than surrender any material part of their advantage. ” – John Kenneth Galbraith
    It’s a one way street and the car has no reverse gear . Best of luck . ;- )

    1. I just downloaded this and looked at it. . . .

      Good golly–it’s a friggin’ textbook! This could very well become the be-all and end-all of the subject that most of us here have spent years, decades learning about.

        1. No, thank you.

          The author of that article says this:

          I am seriously sceptical of claims that global warming is man-made, real and dangerous. These predictions rely upon computer models that failed to predict that there would be no warming for the last 18 years. This means that they are worthless. The climate is always changing and we must be prepared for climate change – be it warming or cooling. History tells us that cooling is more dangerous than warming. As you can see from my page on “global temperature prediction” we can, to some extent, predict temperatures from records of the Southern Oscillation Index (El Nino effect). I wonder how the global warmers are going to explain this?

            1. Leyland is pretty good on energy and grid matters. On climate change, not so much. You can just ignore any argument that relates to climate related matters and filter thru the lens of him being a denier.

      2. Mike B

        I think everyone should take the time to read through it for themselves. Why I like Tom’s approach is that he was very enthusiastic for solar and wind as I had been. But as he ran the numbers it just can’t work. At least it can’t work with our present power per capita consumption. The system has to shrink not grow. But the banking system requires growth and can’t survive without it. In a way this “inflation “ the Fed is fighting is a sign that collapse is imminent. Money is being created that has no where to go and as fast as they raise rates to pull cash out of the economy the government is deficit spending it back into existence. Meanwhile prices just keep going up even as the economy goes down. The common denominator is we peaked in 2018 and we can’t kick start growth in real goods and services to rebalance the over supply of cash as we had been able to in the past. I suspect a balance sheet crisis soon that is much bigger than SVB. The shallow thinking that plagues this world is the belief that any part of it can be independent from any other part. Manufacturing is dependent on markets and markets are dependent on manufacturing and they’re both dependent on energy. In the UK during the height of its industrial period manufacturing was a lead lose industry but it fed the market makers where all of British wealth originated. The US took that role after WWII and created the manufacturing base in China in the 80s to offset domestic energy declines. The system is so large now and so debt laden that neither of them can exist without the other. China can’t exist without the US anymore than the US can without China and the both need Russia.

        1. Thanks. I hope I can find time at least to peruse the book. Tom has some good interview vids out there. He’s right up our alley–the same view as Nate Hagens, Simon Michaux, and Bill Rees.

        2. Tom Murphy does a nice job, but one problem is he takes current global energy consumption (about 18 TW) and sets up the problem as, how doe we replace that?

          The problem is that he states it as, “we need 18 TW solar power to replace the 18 TW which is currently used.”

          In fact, about 60% of the 18 TW of primary energy is simply waste heat so we really would need about 7.2 TW of solar power, about 2.5 times less than in his basic problem statement.

          I agree with the premise that we will need less growth in the future and we will need to transition to other energy sources. In addition a lot of energy use in buildings and to heat water can be reduced through the use of heat pumps along with better building design to make use of passive solar, and better insulation and construction to reduce heating and cooling needs.

          1. But with a capacity factor of 24% for PV it would need to be overbuilt by a factor of 3 or 4 to equal the current 7.2 TW of electricity, so we’re back above 20 TW of solar install.

            1. Bill,

              Murphy assumes about a 20% capacity factor for solar PV, which is quite conservative, US utility scale solar is around 25% capacity factor on average. So the capacity factor is built into his calculations, he also assumes a low price for oil as a comparison of $50/bo for 30 years, probably $80/bo would be more appropriate, it is also likely that costs for solar PV will fall over time as the industry scales up.

              It will cost money for the initial investment and ongoing maintenance, but it is an investment that needs to be made and will take some time, 20 to 30 years, and some demand will be filled with existing nuclear, hydro, and future wind power.

              The 7.2 TW is average power consumption for all types of energy after subtracting the waste heat in combustion for ICEV and in in power plants (roughly 60% for all fossil fuel energy). We would need 28.8 TW of PV capacity to meet this need. Murphy assumes a 20% capacity factor and assumes 50 TW of capacity would be needed to provide 10 TW in his example.

              The 10 TW may be reasonable as there might be some growth in energy use, beyond the 7.2 TW of useful energy consumed currently (40% of 18 TW). It is also conceivable that energy use might be reduced with more use of EVs (replacing 25% efficient ICEVs), the use of heat pumps for heating buikdings and water, and more insulation and passive solar building design to reduce energy used for heat. Better urban design which enables more walking and bicycle use would also reduce energy use while improving health.

          2. More efficiency is possible through the elimination of unnecessary duplication. As in commercial office space. Both in what’s overbuilt and what exists already, think residences. Why do we need so much commercial office space when so much work can be done from home? The pandemic was the real time experiment with a huge sample across multiple industries. Need more thinking outside the box.

          3. D Coyne

            Hm. Well, I don’t question the need for PV and wind energy build-out. I do question the excessive focus on supply-side management versus demand management. In my current understanding, “demand management” will ultimately require an entirely different worldview on the part of humanity at all levels of wealth and development, and will most likely not really get underway until we all collectively suffer a great deal more than we have up till now (suffering being the great teacher for those of us reticent to change voluntarily). Here’s a top-of-my-head list of some worldview changes we’ll all be undergoing:

            * energy and electricity is precious, and should be used only with great caution and need by individuals and organizations
            * energy and electricity is variable on a diurnal and seasonal basis, as well as unpredictable on every time frame. This can be partially mitigated but not eliminated with energy storage strategies. The game of limitless on-demand power is a fools game and will soon be over.
            * we in the developed world would be wise not to repeat the mistakes of early capitalism and colonialism by strip-mining poor countries in the global south of their natural resources again (in this case rare earth metals, aluminum, copper, lithium, etc). That path can only lead to war and chaos on a global scale, and is frankly immoral.
            * think globally, act locally: building resilient local communities that have modest and equitable trade relations with neighbors will be the name of the game for true long-term success, peace and the possibility of happiness
            * capitalism as currently constructed is not viable, in that it requires growth to stay alive, so BAU is not possible for much longer
            * there must be some kind of societal negative feedback on excessive economic stratification for long-term success going forward
            * the cultures of consumerism and libertarian selfishness will have to give way to awareness of our common cause as humans together and as one not-so-special species among many.
            * a great deal of education of self and others will be required about limits to growth, in economics, population, resource availability, use of the earth as a seemingly limitless waste pit, domination of other people and other species, etc.
            * whether ultimately viable or not, some kind of “steady-state”/sustainable socio-political economics must be pursued by us all to survive this mess we’ve made

            Cheers!

            1. Bill,

              Well said. I agree. Some of this could be accomplished with prices, some storage might be necessary (for winter), but it does not need to be battery storage, synthetic fuels could be produced, spring to fall with excess solar output (especially in late sprinf to early fall) and stored for winter use, some batteries might be needed, but a lot can be accomplished with demand pricing to reduce the ramp needed near sunset.

              Efficiency and reduced use of energy in general and slow or no growth also helps as will a demographic transition.

              Murphy get the demographic transition wrong assuming that US levels of prosperity are needed. Iran has has a demographic transition with average income that is about 17 times smaller than the US in 2021. (70.25k vs 4.1 k). He is good on the physics and math, not necessarily on the social science.

            3. A Jack Handey-style Deep Thought :

              Isn’t it weird when you realize that a barrel of crude oil shipped from Saudi Arabia to the USA and then transported to a gas station is like a modern battery of the same size, but that can only be discharged once?

              Aliens visiting the planet would consider us insane.

            5. None of us would exist without fossil fuels.

              Aliens visiting the planet would not see Chimpanzees walking around with batteries.

              Climate Change makes us look stupid; but we are stupid for a reason…fossil fuels.

              The almighty God hath BOOBY TRAPPED our energy supply!!!!!

    2. There are other good books in a similar vein available free:

      https://www.withouthotair.com/download.html
      https://jembendell.com (two chapters so far)
      https://read.realityblind.world/view/975731937/i/
      Geodestinies, Overshoot and We Are Demanding Too Much – I don’t have the links, but easy enough to google.

      For renewables I have not seen fully reported how much would need to be overbuilt in order to (1) keep batteries charged during the good periods so their energy is available whenever needed, (2) provide enough power to build-out and replace the power infrastructure itself and (3) allow for maintenance and regular replacement. Given the intermittency problems and low EROI for renewables I’d take a guess that it might be 6 to 7; that would make their effective efficiency lower than fossil fuels where “overbuilding” based on delivered power is only <2 for CCGT to 4 for ICE.

      With EROI on fossil fuels declining as we are having to use less easily accessible resources and more low EROI renewables being added I think we are starting to see the consequences – i.e. basic services (public health, social services, courts, infrastructure, food supply) being cut back and societies starting to fail because the ones we have evolved based on high EROI fuels are too complex to be supported by low EROI sources. Really with a total renewable energy supply society will not be able to do much better than something like China or Europe in the seventeenth or eighteenth centuries, but modern renewables are probably too sophisticated to be supportable in such a society, so even that might be optimistic.

        1. Dennis
          The weakness in that analytical approach is that it ignores the cost and energy wastage of energy storage for the wind and solar energy system.
          Fossil fuels are going to go away in any case, but if a workable system based on renewables and storage can be developed, it will not be cheap, and certainly not feasible on a global basis.

          1. Old chemist,

            Every technology requires an entire system to function. As the system currently exists, there is not that much curtailment and in many cases excess energy in one area can be transmitted over HVAC lines to where it is needed. Peaking natural gas plants that already exist can fill gaps during low wind and no sun periods.

            The analysis is not perfect, but also note when comparing gasoline used in a car to electricity produced by PV and then used in an EV, the gasoline EROI in terms of useful work moving the car down the road is reduced by a factor of 4 compared to an EV. The typical ICEV uses about 1100 Wh of gasoline to travel 1 mile and a Tesla Model 3 about 250 Wh/mile (closer to a 4.5 difference). As wind and solar reach the point that they are overbuilt, by 3 times more than average load for the entire system, there will be excess energy that will likely be utilized to produce synthetic fuel as backup. The EROI of that system will be lower, but is difficult to analyze because it does not yet exist.

            The energy waste you refer to may be in the charging and discharging of batteries, this is about 20%, rather than curtailment. There is also the added cost of battery backup which may be substantial.

            Lazard considers storage plus wind or PV, for short term (4 hour) battery storage the cost in terms of LCOE roughly doubles, see

            https://www.lazard.com/research-insights/2023-levelized-cost-of-energyplus/

            1. Dennis
              The real bite comes when you have to deal with long term storage.

            2. Old chemist,

              I agree, but there will be at some point excess capacity in summer which can be utilized to produce synthetic fuel ( the electricity would basically be free as excess would simply go to ground) just the cost of building the plant would be needed, existing pipeline infrastructure and existing peaking power plants could be utilized to burn the excess fuel (stored in existing storage facilities) during winter. Technically it seems there would not be an issue with such a plan, though you would be better able to calculate the energy cost for synthetic natural gas (or hydrogen or ammonia, whatever seems most practical) than me.

            3. OLD CHEMIST
              A lot of the worry comes from lack of solar in the winter, especially for heating. The solution is probably better insulation, and more efficient heating. Also heat can be stored long term, as this Finnish company has shown:

              https://polarnightenergy.fi/sand-battery

              As Dennis mentioned elsewhere, it’s not enough just to think about a one to one replacement for the current system. We’ll have to find new ways to deal with old problems.

  17. https://www.slashgear.com/1284900/prius-prime-solar-roof/

    I don’t have a clue as to how much it costs Toyota to add this feature, but it will pay for itself on average in about five years on average.

    Adding more capacity on the trunk lid or hood could probably double the free miles.

    And if the price of gasoline doubles before the car goes to the scrapyard….. the payback could be generous indeed.

  18. Murphy’s closing comments

    Unfortunately, a common tendency of people on the receiving end of the kind of message this book advances is to get frustrated when the story is not tied up neatly into a happy ending. Perhaps our story-telling culture has irreversibly conditioned people to expect resolution at the end of every movie or show. Nature and the world are under no such obligations to satisfy our psychological need for closure, so it is unfair to blame the messenger for accurately conveying the perils and uncertainty of our times. Perhaps people seek a hopeful conclusion so that they can walk away unencumbered—satisfied that everything is under control and that somebody will figure something out. But this tendency is perhaps counter-productive, in that only by internalizing and burdening oneself with the daunting nature of our challenge will it be possible to mount a collective and effective response. If human nature is such that unpalatable stories don’t gain traction, it is another way to say that we are not built to overcome a global dilemma of this scale. So push backon any criticism demanding that you need to supply a happy picture at the end of the story. Challenge the listener to deal with the tension, as this book has attempted to do. Tough love.

    1. You and I likely agree on this…
      His statement is an important one, and entirely appropriate for the global scenario.

    1. Iron Mike,

      These policies have not worked well in other places, sometimes there is a brief rise in total fertility, but then it falls, at least that’s what has happened in South Korea and Japan. Recent data has Korea at a TFR of 1, China is at about 1.5 and Japan at about 1.25. Europe and North America did get TFR to rise from 1.25 to 1.5, unclear if it remains at that level.

    2. They might slow the decline a little.
      If they need more workers they will have to recruit from places like Philippines, Kenya, Pakistan.
      To be successful at attracting young workers there must be a sense of opportunity, and reputation of some respect for other cultures helps too.
      As far as I know, China doesn’t have any experience with this.

  21. A comment on OFW . De dollarization and energy flows . Interesting angle by Mirror on Wall .

    The world is being driven to opt out of the dollar in all sorts of ways now.

    The dissipative structure works in many and strange ways?

    Energy flows are shifting away from the west, and it seems that financial flows will reflect that – as will the flow of other resources?

    Currency hegemony has ultimately depended on superior energy foundations in USA and the west, and the decline in the one will reflect the decline in the other?

    In some sense, currency must be a token of energy and its ultimate products? Otherwise it is ultimately just paper (or digits)?

    Likewise currency hegemony must ultimately indicate superior energy foundations?

    Otherwise it is a paper tiger?

    A currency hegemon without the adequate energy foundations is liable to be a house of cards?

    Everything is liable to come down at some point, and the loss of currency hegemony is liable to frame that, while energy foundations ultimately explain it?

    You have always expected that energy decline would manifest as financial problems, and it seems that de-dollarization is liable to be a big part of that?

    De-dollarization can likely be reframed in energetic terms and the declining affordability, particularly in the west of energy?

    The shift in energy flows will manifest in the shift in currencies flows, and thus energy decline manifests in financial flows?

    The two, energy and currency, must ultimately be linked and the loss of currency hegemony will likely form an inflection point in the decline of the west?

    The loss of currency hegemony could even be a point of catastrophic downward pivot?

    If all so, then de-dollarization may have much deeper roots in the energy situation, and the various drives toward de-dollarization are ultimately expressions of the shifting fundamental energy foundations?

    Ultimately it all comes down to the shifting energy flows in the global dissipative structure, and everything else is phenomenal to that, including financial flows, de-dollarization, the collapse of currency hegemony, and the geopolitical and economic decline/ collapse of the west?
    De-dollarization will likely be a pivotal phenomenon in the fundamental relative energy decline
    * The shift in energy flows will manifest in the shift in currencies flows, and thus energy decline manifests in [declining currency hegemony]?

    1. Thanks for pointing out that EV’s are far from perfect. One or two people might not have been aware.

      When my wife got an EV about 4 years ago, we went directly to the manufacturing facility and picked it up. So no car hauler was required. We never even saw a person. The car door unlocked as she approached it. Its been a great car for her. She drives a lot, and charges at home just about always. Her ‘fuel’ cost is right around $4.50 for 100 miles traveled. Its a midsize AWD vehicle.

  25. The Republicans may be crazy but if I had to put odds on – I would say they are going to get significant concessions from democrats who will be given just enough to provide some cover for their base. If your starting position is “I want to kill you” and your opponents position is “I don’t want to die”. If you get them to amputate their own arm I would say that’s a win.

      1. “Biden too busy trying to start a war with China. Russia is boring now.”
        Utter nonsense. Where do you get this stuff?

          1. Pull your head out Neville “Kleiber” Chamberlain,

            “Hitler’s expansionist aims became clear in 1936 when his forces entered the Rhineland. Two years later, in March 1938, he annexed Austria. At the Munich Conference that September, Neville Chamberlain seemed to have averted war by agreeing that Germany could occupy the Sudetenland, the German-speaking part of Czechoslovakia – this became known as the Munich Agreement.

            But, despite his promise of ‘no more territorial demands in Europe’, Hitler was undeterred by appeasement. In March 1939, he violated the Munich Agreement by occupying the rest of Czechoslovakia. Six months later, in September 1939, Germany invaded Poland and Britain was at war.”

            https://www.iwm.org.uk/history/how-britain-hoped-to-avoid-war-with-germany-in-the-1930s

            Freedom isn’t free, Kleiber either your a fascist sympathizer or a cowered. Fascism prioritizes the nation over the individual, who exists to serve the nation.” and as “an ultranationalist, authoritarian political philosophy. It combines elements of nationalism, militarism, economic self-sufficiency, and totalitarianism.

            ****
            “It was true after the racist mob in Charlottesville three months ago. And it’s still true today: Donald J Trump quite literally sympathizes with fascists.

            He shares their worldview as easily as he shares their language and videos. He gives their voice and values the biggest platform in politics. He is a neo-fascist sympathizer in the mainstream of American politics, sitting at the heart of the West Wing and world power.

            But that’s obviously not the point of what the 45th president of the United States was trying to do. Stirring up racial and religious hatred for political ends has become known as “populism” among the pundit class.

            It’s considered impolite to call it what it is: fascism. But we are long past the point of giving Trump the benefit of the doubt, or respecting voters who exercise their democratic rights for racist causes.

            There’s something more going on here that demands an honest response. Trump is a particularly stupid neo-Nazi sympathizer.

            By now, most rightwing politicians have figured out how to flirt with the neo-Nazis without getting burned by their torch-wielding mobs and burning crosses. They stir hatred for immigrants and preach about the sanctity of national culture and family values. But they generally stop short of circulating fascist propaganda. It’s just too offensively obvious.”

            https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/29/donald-trump-britain-first-fascist-sympathiser

            1. What propaganda does to a mofo. You don’t need to quote the IWM pieces, I’ve been to all their museums.

              Read the Harper piece I posted relating to Ukraine. Let me know who the fascist world power is (hint: it’s the one that’s been doing illegal military actions since the Cold War started).

              America imploding is a net benefit to the world, just as the British Empire falling was. I welcome it. If there’s a god, Trump will get in again and expedite the process with his utter incompetence and fascist leanings. Your nation can barely keep it together as it is, I think Trumpy getting in again will lead to an orgasmic explosion of crazy American shenanigans I will follow online with great interest. Or, y’know, we leave Joe in to slowly whittle the thing down anyway thru usual neoliberal bullshit.

            2. FEBRUARY 24, 2022
              Remarks by President Biden on Russia’s Unprovoked and Unjustified Attack on Ukraine
              HOME
              BRIEFING ROOM
              SPEECHES AND REMARKS
              East Room

              1:43 P.M. EST

              THE PRESIDENT: Sorry to keep you waiting. Good afternoon. The Russian military has begun a brutal assault on the people of Ukraine without provocation, without justification, without necessity.

              This is a premeditated attack. Vladimir Putin has been planning this for months, as I’ve been — as we’ve been saying all along. He moved more than 175,000 troops, military equipment into positions along the Ukrainian border.

              He moved blood supplies into position and built a field hospital, which tells you all you need to know about his intentions all along.

              He rejected every good-faith effort the United States and our Allies and partners made to address our mutual security concerns through dialogue to avoid needless conflict and avert human suffering.

              For weeks — for weeks, we have been warning that this would happen. And now it’s unfolding largely as we predicted.

              https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/02/24/remarks-by-president-biden-on-russias-unprovoked-and-unjustified-attack-on-ukraine/

              Neville from your Harper Link:

              “Thanks to Washington’s efforts to arm and train the Ukrainian military and to integrate it into NATO systems, we are now witnessing the most intense and sustained military entanglement in the near-eighty-year history of global competition between the United States and Russia. Washington’s rocket launchers, missile systems, and drones are destroying Russia’s forces in the field; indirectly and otherwise, Washington and NATO are probably responsible for the preponderance of Russian casualties in Ukraine. The United States has reportedly provided real-time battlefield intelligence to Kyiv, enabling Ukraine to sink a Russian cruiser, fire on soldiers in their barracks, and kill as many as a dozen of Moscow’s generals.”

              The Job won’t be finished until Putin goes down

    2. There is no more dangerous menace to civilization than a government of incompetent, corrupt, or vile men.

      —Ludwig von Mises

      1. The Job won’t be finished until Putin goes down , Beware the curse of Zelensky . Missing is Liz Truss , Jacinda Arden and Sanna Marin . Waiting to be added Macron, Scholf , Sunak and Biden . Relax Klieber .

        1. As indicated already, regime change or collapse of Russia proper is the US’ aim. Both of those come with massive potential problems that in no way mean Putin being removed leads to a good outcome.

          It’s almost like this same situation has parallels somewhere, perhaps in places more desert-y and sounding like Irak and Libbyah. Except now it’s a nuclear power we’re trying to dismantle again.

          1. The International Criminal Court in the Hague has issued an arrest warrant against Russian President Vladimir Putin.

            It accuses him of being responsible for war crimes in Ukraine, including the unlawful deportation of children.

            Russia’s Commissioner for Children’s Rights, Ms Maria Lvova-Belova, is also subject to an arrest warrant.

            According to Ukraine, tens of thousands of possible war crimes have been carried out by Russian forces since they invaded Ukraine in February last year.

            Mass burial sites have been found in several parts of Ukraine previously occupied by Russian troops, including some holding civilian bodies showing signs of torture.

            In April 2022, more than 400 bodies of civilians were found in Bucha, a town on the outskirts of Kyiv

            In September 2022, 450 bodies – mostly of civilians – were found in mass graves in Izium, in Kharkiv region

            President Volodymyr Zelensky has said Russian troops could have committed more than 400 war crimes in the Kherson region while it was under their occupation from March to November 2022

            In March 2022, Russian forces carried out an air strike on a theatre in Mariupol which was being used as a refuge for children

            A hospital in Mariupol was also struck in March last year

            WASHINGTON (AP) — For months, Western allies have shipped billions of dollars worth of weapons systems and ammunition to Ukraine with an urgency to get the supplies to Kyiv in time for an anticipated spring counteroffensive.

            Now summer is just weeks away. While Russia and Ukraine are focused on an intense battle for Bakhmut, the Ukrainian spring offensive has yet to begin.

            Last week Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said it’s been delayed because his country lacks enough Western weapons to succeed without suffering too many casualties. Weather and training are playing a role too, officials and defense experts say.

            TRAINING
            In the past few months, tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have been trained by the U.S. and allies for the fight. But the final Ukrainian battalion the U.S. is currently training is just finishing its course now.

            This final class brings the total number of Ukrainians the U.S. has trained for this fight to more than 10,700. Those forces have learned not only field and medical skills but advanced combined arms tactics with the Stryker and Bradley armored fighting vehicles and Paladin self-propelled howitzers. It also includes highly skilled forces who were trained to operate the Patriot missile defense system.

            According to U.S. Army Europe-Africa, more than 41,000 additional Ukrainian troops have been trained through programs run by more than 30 partner nations.

            Soon a new phase will begin: The U.S. will start training Ukrainians on Abrams tanks at the Grafenwoehr Training Area in Germany. But the Ukrainians won’t wait for the tank training to be finished before they launch their counteroffensive, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told reporters in late April.

            COUNTEROFFENSIVE CLUES
            Both Russia and Ukraine are taking steps in anticipation of the counteroffensive.

            Russia has approximately 200,000 troops along a 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) battle line, dug in using the same type of trench warfare tactics used in World War I, a Western official said on the condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters.

            These troops are not as highly trained as Russia’s initial invading force, which sustained heavy casualties. But they are defended by ditches, minefields and dragon’s teeth

  27. People may have heard this already, Model Y was best selling vehicle in the World for 2023Q1.

    See

    https://www.focus2move.com/world-car-market/

    Excerpt:

    Looking at the cumulative data from Q1 2023, the best-selling car in the World becomes the Tesla Model Y -up 3 spots- with 263,489 units sold (+55.3%).

    Second place is in the hands of previous year’s leader the Toyota Corolla, with current YTD sales at 244,077 down 7.9% from the previous year.

    The first pick-up in the rankings is the Ford F-Series, up 3 spots in 3rd with 197,477 sales and a 21.4% year-on year growth.

    The Toyota RAV4 falls 1 spot into 4th reporting 186,743 cumulative sales, a 16.6% loss from the sales period last year

    In 5th place ranks the Chevrolet Silverado – up 5 spots- with 144,920 sales (+5.7%), followed by the Hyundai Tucson – up 5 spots- with 144,915 sales (+12.0%) and the Toyota Hilux with 141,151 new registrations (-4.7%).

    The Tesla Model 3 ranks in 8th with 138,310 sales (-42.9%), followed by the Toyota Camry with 134,357 (-14.5%) and the Honda CR-V -down 5 spots- with 130,257 new registrations (-22.6%).

  30. The USA resorts to blowing up mountaintops to get at the meager amounts of coal residing there. I’m guessing there’s just so much available elsewhere, but they would rather ravage the landscape so as to make fools of fossil fuel analysts. Watch this flyover video from a few days ago: https://twitter.com/CoalRiverMtn/status/1657452660574896128

    kind of jaw-dropping. Apparently 500 feet of mountain is removed, which is 150 feet more than the highest elevation in Florida. Or about 3x higher than the average water tower.

    1. Someone should tell them about cheap and plentiful sunlight and wind. Maybe they haven’t heard.

      1. Tell Senator Manchin of West Virginia. The news today is that Manchin may join the No Labels party to run for president. Our goose is cooked, as well as the planet, if this happens.

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