99 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum, May 10, 2022”

  1. When I was young I was a big believer in science and technology, and that together scientists and business men would gift us all, eventually, with long happy lives.

    Then I morphed into a hard core doomer, and since then I’ve transitioned to a middle ground, where I find myself rather lonely, to be honest. Hardly any old doomers are willing to change their minds, and I’m not at all willing to join up with the cornucopians again.

    There is without any question a real possibility the entire world will go to hell in a hand basket.

    But on the other hand, maybe it won’t. There’s a fair to excellent chance that some people in some places will pull thru the crash headed our way while maintaining a reasonably prosperous and dignified life style with the future economy being noteworthy for renewables, conservation, efficiency and low impact personal habits.

    These guys just might be going down in the history books half a century down the road as the ones having the most to do with Australia becoming a green energy super power.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4uFhG3Nzym0

    Their business model, in essence, is that renewable technologies are now cheap enough to displace fossil fuels on the grand scale, given their advantageous situation in Australia…… starting now, and that they’re willing to bet their own money on it, and make money doing it.

    I’m not a number cruncher, but my gut instinct is that they’re right, not only because as fossil fuels deplete and get to be more expensive, renewable energy will continue to get cheaper….. But also

    Because the many countries presently having big problems paying for imported fossil fuels, while their citizens are having trouble sleeping at night worried about the day when the sellers just cut them off ……..

    Will be ready to buy when these guys are ready to sell.

    Sooner even.

    1. Hi OFM,

      Just wanted to say I’ve always read your reflections on our predicament with interest. I agree that, barring a nuclear war (always a real possibility), many countries still have a wide range of options to construct a viable future using modest levels of fossil fuels in conjunction with solar/wind/hydro/nuclear power. The United States, Canada and Australia certainly have the potential do so. I can say as a midwesterner that very few of my neighbors, progressive or conservative, would willingly choose a low-energy, low mobility lifestyle with far smaller residential living spaces. But, nature may force most of us to accept a life without long distance travel, air-conditioning, personal computing devices and meat with every meal.

      I believe the depletion of water resources in the western United States will be a test case on whether our country can manage a crisis caused by overshoot. Unlike larger issues, like climate change, very few attribute the relentless decline in fresh water as due to some conspiracy of Elders, Jewish bankers, tech moguls, Putin, liberals, malevolent scientists or Trumpers. Everyone is going to fight tooth and nail to keep their farm, factory or city supplied with water. In the end, though, there will have to be new policies and political decisions that will deal with the realities of the situation. The culture of growth will stop, because it can’t go on. If this drought continues, how many farms will be viable in five years?

      Change can happen very rapidly. I grew up in thriving industrial cities which changed radically in the space of a decade or two. The Soviet Union was a fearsome authoritarian state and then, in the space of a few years, disappeared without a fight. I hope for my family’s sake that the USA can adjust to a different reality without being convulsed in civil war or turning into an authoritarian state. We will see, probably sooner rather than later.

      1. Mainland Australia and possibly parts of USA likely will be uninhabitable from climate change before they could transform to wind and solar. Canada might do alright but it has oodles of hydropower already and would likely take the short term view of using up its fossil fuels before over installing other renewables; and it might well have its hands full dealing with the masses from the south seeking contraception or abortion, or fleeing climate catastrophes and fascist states (I think a half way competent, true believer trumpite coming to power might be the world’s biggest concern now).

        1. Hi George,

          Most of Australia is pretty much a bone dry oven already, and thus unfit for human habitation by ordinary standards any way, but I get your point, lol.

          Ditto some fair sized portions of the USA, already, today.

          Now as far as making the transition to wind and solar power, you’re right, assuming today’s political landscape continues to hold.

          But one day, I can’t say when, something or some things are going to happen that result in the Leviathan, the nation state USA, waking up, and taking action to preserve itself. The last time this happened was when the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor.

          I don’t know when another such event, one capable of getting our collective attention and capable of not only scaring the hell out of us but also infuriating us so that we WANT to fight, will come to pass.

          But there’s some hope it will come before it’s too late, and we fritter away our renewable economy window of opportunity.

          This is why I so often say we should all be praying to our favorite rock or snake or whatever for a series of Pearl Harbor Wake Up events.

          I don’t know for sure that we COULD go to a wartime type economy and manage the transition before we use up so much more of our remaining one time gifts of nature ranging from fresh water, good soil, oil, metal ores, etc, that we couldn’t giterdone.

          But I believe we have the capacity to do it……. assuming we get the necessary collective figurative kick in the ass that gets us started.

          We simply do not KNOW how bad things will be, in terms of the climate.

          Canada will probably be ok, in my personal opinion, in terms of being livable, but there could be hurricane like storms, droughts like the Dust Bowl, or floods of epic proportion headed Canada’s way……..

          And while I’m not a number cruncher, I am of the opinion that no matter how hard anybody or any country works on transitioning to renewables, there will be a ready market for Canadian oil and gas for at least a couple of generations.

          The important thing, in terms of the big picture, is to burn it to the extent possible to push the transition along…….. but not worry too damned much about CO2.
          In respect to the climate, we’re damned if we do keep on burning fossil fuels.
          But if we try to quit before the transition is far enough along, we’re damned anyway, because if the transition, currently in it’s terrible two’s toddler stage, doesn’t grow up……..

          Well, poor people and richer ones too, will burn coal out the ying yang, and use coal to manufacture synthetic gasoline and diesel fuel as well.

          Damned if we do, damned if we don’t, but there IS at least the possibility we can weave and dodge between these two scenarios, and pull thru with the lights on, the water and sewer working, food in super markets and cops on the streets.

        2. Canada has about 37 million people and I read we can accommodate 100 million total without even having to fill up Nunavut. A visiting Japanese man told me Japan had 125 million people in an area the size of Nova Scotia. Basic science indicates, in the next 20 to 30 years, earth’s population will grow another 2 billion minimum and then sustain itself above 10 billion total for 80 years or more. Thus there will be plenty of demand to move to a prime location such as Canada. Regarding warming temperatures, darker-skinned Canadians brought about by millions of immigrants of other cultures who intermarry with white persons will create new blends of skin colours allowing for life in a much warmer climate. Right now, my white skin can only withstand about 15 minutes of very hot summer sun, but I have a feeling our great-grandchildren and beyond will be better off.

          1. The UV radiation in Canada will stay the same – especially in Winter.
            So brown people can only survive on some kind of Vitamin D supplement for the autumn / winter / spring time. Otherwise they’ll have a very bad immune system. Seen that on one collegue – she was stuffed with it after they checked her because she got a hard Corona at the age of 25. Had almost 0 Vitamin D in the blood. She has a nice chocolate brown skin color.

            That’s the reason for the white skin mutation of Europeans, to soak up Vitamin D as much as possible even when it means sun burns – you know the original humans where from Africa and brown.

      2. Hi Brian,

        Thanks for your interest, taking my speculations seriously.

        You’re dead on about the water and farms, and not only in the Midwest, but also in California, where most of our off season produce ( veggies and fruit to most people,farmers collectively call these produce) grows.

        We won’t necessarily have to give up high mobility, but we will probably have to give up super sized pickup trucks, except when they are actually NEEDED for productive work. Midwesterners will hopefully be able to afford electric cars and charge them with locally produced wind and solar juice.

        All of us will drive electric micro cars if that’s what it takes to maintain the American lifestyle. The commoners can force the richer people to downsize too.

        Giving up suburbia is utterly out of the question, given that doing so would utterly bankrupt us, not to mention that it would cost more to build concentrated housing in cities than it would to go all electric with little cars, and maybe have some long range cars available for rent, as needed.

        And I believe that while the internet is an energy hog, it’s well worth having it, because it enables us save more than it costs in unnecessary trips, ordering online, getting work done faster and cheaper, etc. Ditto personal computers.

        Recreational air travel, and maybe most business air travel? I’m thinking that industry is going shrink by as much as eighty or ninety percent within the next generation or so.

        Hardly anybody you meet on the street, even on a university campus, outside the neighborhood of the biology department, understands that we can’t keep growing in terms of material goods……. but growth in our living standards, measured other ways, can continue……. such as having better medical care, healthier food, etc.

        And the people who think it can’t be done never stop to think about all the stuff the coming generations are going to inherit. We love to talk about how shoddy recently built houses are, but the truth is that with good maintenance, just about all of them will last a hundred years, and a hell of a lot of them will last twice or three times that long. The roads are in place, water and sewer systems are in place. Sure they will need major work…….. but nothing even close to as much as major expansions would cost.

        You’re dead on about the speed of change. I caught the very tail end of the horse and mule era on the farm, and actually plowed a few hours a year with a mule……. because my folks kept one for old times sake, for a couple of generations after we switched to tractors and trucks. I knew my great grand parents, in their own old age, who thought Model T’s would only be a passing fad for rich people, when they were young themselves.

        I fully agree that one of the worst possible things that could happen would be to have a COMPETENT trump type in charge of our government.

        1. OFM
          I follow your comments with interest, and agree that declining availability of non-renewable resources ( particularly fossil fuels) will not impact every region of the world equally or simultaneously. The way I see it , though, is that we are all ultimately on a downward glide path to existing on renewable resources, harvested with systems built from renewable materials. The slope of the glide path will be different for different areas but the final landing will be approximately the same for everyone. The Egyptians managed to build an impressive civilization on that basis , can our descendants do better?
          If you look at the present systems for collecting renewable energy, every one is based on complex, high tech solutions using non-renewable minerals and metals. Not sustainable.

          1. Old Chemist:
            Remember that much of the non-renewable components in solar technology is re-usable. It isn’t like our use of fossil fuels where we burn them into pollution. I think the Greek, Roman and even later civilizations were based on renewable resources, even the 19th century British empire used very little fossil fuels.

            1. “I think the Greek, Roman and even later civilizations were based on renewable resources, even the 19th century British empire used very little fossil fuels.”

              Save the last civilization mentioned (AKA this civilization), all of those listed collapsed. As have ALL others. Save ours. Hmm, I wonder what’s going to happen…

            2. JJHMAN:

              Recycle, reuse, repurpose, etc. will all impact the slope of the glide path down. Some poor soul in central Africa is going to hit bottom pretty quickly, while in North America we will be able to string things out even to the extent of mining old garbage dumps.
              Biggest wild card is the human factor. The other civilizations you mention all prospered at a time when the world population was a few hundred million, getting back to that level will probably be a rocky road, but will be necessary before sustainable existence is once more credible.

            3. JJ ” Remember that much of the non-renewable components in solar technology is re-usable. ”
              Now JJ let’s talk about the economics of making this re useable . What is technically possible may not be economically feasible . Repeating myself . There is gold in the seabed , now go and mine it . When you extract this , post here . We are waiting .

            4. I accept that no technology, no social structure, no religious epiphany will allow one, much less nine billion humans to live at the current level of material consumption level. The question is ” what can reasonable people aspire to?”. It isn’t improved motorhome fuel economy and it isn’t grubbing around naked for ripe berries and dead antelopes.
              Yes, every civilization as collapsed. Most hunter-gatherer societies have collapsed. My cat died (actually several of them). Switching from gasoline to EV is the right thing to do today. It’s a step away from a more environmentally damaging mode to a lesser one while we wait for OFM’s series of Pearl Harbors to guide us to some, any, future that looks more enduring than what we accept as normal today.
              “economically feasible” is starting to sound like a really dumb measure to me. What does that really mean? Does it mean that if Wall Street is unhappy we can’t do it? Does it mean we need to follow Piketty’s rule that profits have to be larger than economic growth? Was World War Two economically feasible?

            5. JJ “Does it mean that if Wall Street is unhappy we can’t do it? ” Not exactly but still you are within the margin of error . Ask the oil companies what ESG is doing to their future , you will get the answer to your question . Your comparison to WW II is not applicable here . Compare apples to apples and not apples to oranges .

            6. Piketty’s rule that profits have to be larger than economic growth?

              Seems to be true for capitalism to be true.
              No need to read the book, as that sums it up.
              Of course, he did not advocate that.

            7. HiH:
              At this stage of my life I really don’t care much what the oil company bosses think or what happens to oil companies as now constructed. I think my comparison to WW2 is exactly relevant so we can disagree on that. We, as a species, are heading for previously unthinkable experiences. Assuming that the economics of a resource rich, industrial civilization with perpetual growth is going to last forever on a finite ecosystem is just laughable. There are likely to be an infinite number of potential ways to construct a human civilization. The loss of this particular paradigm may very well be the least of our concerns. What is irrelevant is your comment about gold in the ocean.

      3. Unfortunately, the water shortages in the American West have long term causes and can’t be solved in the short term. And lack of rainfall is not the key problem.

        My grandmother (born in Colby Kansas in 1888) told me she knew the dust Bowl was coming. She said she always told farmers not to cut down the cottonwood trees, because they were the only things keeping the wind from blowing their farms away.

        The problem is water retention, not lack of rainfall. The Midwest has lost nearly 60 trillion tons of topsoil since tilling began 160 years ago. Did you ever ask yourself why the Mississippi is so muddy? It’s part of American folklore.

        https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/03/220316114958.htm

        Americans just don’t seem to be able to learn from their mistakes. This is mostly because the desertification of the continent is slow on a human scale, though extremely fast on a geological scale. But the history of the country has been one of repeated ecological collapses driven by poor land use. New England, Appalachia, Eastern Virginia, California’s central Valley, the Arizona cattle country, Northwestern Nevada etc etc.

        The reason the Middle East is a desert is that humans have been farming there a lot longer than in North America.

        1. There is science and geography field that looks at the amount of precipitation different parts of the earth receive. The data collected correlates extremely well with the distribution of vegetation type, and even more so when you factor in soil type and degradation.
          Take note- deserts existed before human started playing with fire and herding goats.

          See for yourself-
          https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Global-map-of-annual-precipitation-minus-evapotranspiration-an-index-of-leaching-Note_fig7_252432040

          https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/koppen-climate-classification-system/

          https://databasin.org/maps/58940a97a23341db8233844a2be14319/

    2. “given their advantageous situation in Australia”

      Australia’s advantageous situation is dependent on the US Military/UK supporting the country.

      If not, China ( or India, or Japan, or etc etc) will be in the advantageous position.

      I think the US Navy picked up on this a few decades ago.

      1. I totally agree. Australia is hopelessly outclassed in terms of population and economic capacity compared to China, and anybody who thinks China isn’t planning on having an empire is either as dumb as a rock or isn’t paying any attention at all to world politics.

        As I see it, we’re looking at the ultimate line in the sand RIGHT NOW.

        If we let Russia get away with invading Ukraine, the momentum belongs to the other side. The West will likely live or die, politically, depending on whether we have the backbone to hold the line.

        1. If we take our queues from Asimov’s Foundation, then it is the periphery that falls and/or gets ignored first. The periphery (resource-poor nations with limited participation in the global space) are already largely forgotten. We are several decades into the collapse process. Russia/Ukraine represents a threat to the core. The west and “the other side” enjoy a symbiosis, and for that reason I consider them as one unit. If the west falls, so does the other side.

        2. No regime has a great time if economic prosperity fails. And if that happens at the same time in the west as well as in Russia and China? Global trade is one of the most efficient enablers of real wealth, and I would say sea transport is one of the best uses of fossil fuels as of now (at least for oil). So it is pretty interesting what kind of global situation we are going into now, because a failure of trade could mean failure of states. And shrinking the total economic pie would not in the slightest be superior to at least holding it steady.

      2. Peak , some chatter on the web . Is Australia the next Ukraine ? Poking the bear via Ukraine and now poking the Panda via Australia . Warning : The Panda may be the dragon . 🙂

  2. BTC-USD
    29,918.11
    -1,716.04(-5.42%)

    So, something with no value will eventually have no value?

    1. HT , ” Bull s**t is still bull s**t by any name ” . Parody on a quote ” A rose is still a rose by any name ” 😉

    2. Capitalism is constantly searching and requires new territories in which to expand and grow profits. With the advent of peak cheap oil this has defaulted almost exclusively to speculative and (in the case of crypto) purely imaginative value. It will be a hard one to replace. But the money has to go somewhere.

  3. In Sweden and Finland there is now a quite one-sided “discussion” on when to join NATO, to not do so is not on the table at all. But as the cynic I am, there´s an upside in joining, when Greece and Turkey go to war we can send the airforce to one, and the army to the other so they can have live fire excercises against eachother…

    1. I am not an military expert, but certain secrets from 1950s was released not long ago. Quite interesting; if Finland was to be attacked by the USSR, it was a main goal to provoke Norway into the war so that NATO had a reason to provoke pressure. Russia is not the Soviet Union anymore. I don’t understand that there can’t be de-escalation at some point. Hope so anyway, since the Russian economy is too integrated with the European one. A divorce is not fun.

      1. I suspect we can return to a relatively safer time after some high ranking patriot puts a teaspoon of Polonium in Putin’s borscht.

    1. I’ve been following Karl for almost 15yrs and he’s predicted a dozen crashes at least. He used to do a scorecard every year on his predictions but they were atrocious so he stopped doing them. Maybe he’ll be right this year. That said, he has never offered any advice on what to do about said crashes….

      1. He thought there was going to be a revolt against US treasuries for years. Bondzilla.

        You are correct. I still like his analysis though.

        Brings up ideas that lots of others don’t

        He’s given lots of advice about what to do:

        Stay out of debt

        Lose weight and get healthy as Medicare is going to blow up

        Don’t invest in companies that are just rolling over debt and have no real assets (Twitter, Facebook, etc)

        Arm yourself ( I am not a proponent of this one)

        1. Denying yourself any capability, supposing you are competent to exercise it, is a no brainer mistake. Just about every body I know in my part of the world, excepting some women, owns a firearm of one sort or another.
          And out of all these people I have known since I was a kid, I know just one who has been seriously hurt by accident with a gun.

          It’s true there’s been a number of suicides, and some shootings that were unjustified, but my definition of competence includes knowing when NOT to shoot.

          I knew a few people who were murdered in the commission of a crime such as a robbery, but on the other hand……. until recently……. nobody was dumb enough to rob a store in this part of the world. We have plenty of thieves, but virtually none who break into homes if they think there’s any possibility the owners are home. I can’t even remember any local stories about home invasions, except a couple carried out by outsiders from someplace far away, who happened to be passing thru.

          Our local dope dealers seldom shoot anybody, or rob anybody. They know they’ll be target in turn by their customer or victim’s family or friends.

          NOTE….. I’m not arguing that people in general should have guns, without permits or criminal background checks or training, etc.

          I’m talking about INDIVIDUALS, who may well live to see things fall apart, having a weapon, and knowing how to use it.

          If you’ve got GOOD SENSE, you will never shoot yourself by accident, or leave your weapon where a kid can get hold of it, or get mad and shoot your wife’s lover, etc.

          I’m talking about making the PERSONAL decision to have a weapon in case you really need it someday.

          Right now I can reasonably hope to see a fire truck within thirty to forty five minutes,sometimes an hour plus, and a cop, if I’m lucky, in about the same amount of time. I have had family members die because it took an ambulance over two hours to arrive.

          IF the shit hits the fan, or WHEN the shit hits the fan, ambulances, fire trucks and cops might EVENTUALLY show up……. eventually.

          1. @OFM

            Fair enough.

            If the shit hits the fan, there is no good strategy.

            If you signal that you have things that people need (smoke coming out of your chimney), you will get picked off by a sniper when you go outside to harvest your acorns.

            1. In 1983 there was a TV movie broadcast called “The Day After”. It had a particularly chilling scene of families at a high-school game (baseball?) when the nearby ballistic missile silos all launched. Dozens of ICBMs flying out, an shortly thereafter the incoming missiles. The last scene of the movie was of a well prepared farm owner going out to offer food to some men sitting at the end of his long driveway.
              Before he even got within talking distance he was shot dead. That’s about how much good any prep will do you if a nuclear war between Russia and the US ever starts.

            2. I recall the TV movie ‘The Day After’, or something like that. Armed conflict disrupts food systems. Those characters in the show shooting the farmer are a good example of that. As is the war in Ukraine, where I’m sure farmers this year will be making more $ from towing in Russian armor for scrap bounty than from selling crops.
              Any anthropologist will tell you that people steal before they starve. Violence towards humanitarian aid workers is highest in the countries with the most famine; South Sudan, Somalia, Yemen and Nigeria.
              I make no secret of it that I predict extensive famine before the techno-cornucopia kicks in to save us. Naturally, there will be an increase in violence. I recommend Mutual Aid as a model for keeping one’s body and soul together.

              https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_aid_(organization_theory)

              The Uber wealthy, who silhouette themselves as both wealthy and weak, will perhaps attract much negative attention, to themselves and their resources. One is better to appear not wealthy, and not weak; to live in rough country with channeling terrain features; and with people who practice Mutual Aid.
              The ecological conditions that precipitate the population bottleneck will likely select for intelligence and cooperation. The current set of elites, and I use that word loosely, will, in my opinion, not do very well without a lot of help from some new friends. To quote addiction rehabilitation and relapse prevention education; “get new friends”.

            3. “If you signal that you have things that people need (smoke coming out of your chimney), you will get picked off by a sniper when you go outside to harvest your acorns.” ~ PeakAvocado

              …Or when you go outside to take a piss first thing in the AM. I feel that violence patterns will most closely resemble low intensity tribal and guerrilla warfare; consisting of raids, ambushes, and hauling off the movables. The Uber wealthy in their bunkers perhaps won’t do so well once the local hungry find the fresh air intake and start a tire fire, or pipe in some acetylene.

            4. I’ve given the matter of raiders and scavengers in general a lot of thought.

              The best I can come up with is that the best defense is a good offense in a lot of situations.

              So……. I have retired military friends, and younger ones as well, some of them family, and we have discussed this matter on various occasions.

              There’s a general plan, very fluid, to the effect that we would more or less fort up and hope to organize a community militia with the help of other local guys, especially farmers and trades people.

              If violent intruders get to be a significant problem, and it’s a matter of life for us, and any little kids and women with us, and death for them, we will go proactive. Close to half of these guys have killed people in the line of duty already.

              Of course things COULD get to the point we would be raided by WELL ORGANIZED renegade soldiers, and in that case……. they would likely wipe us out, no question.

              Given that I and a number of local guys are old farmers, with ample resources on hand, we could grow enough to eat indefinitely, going back to nineteenth century methods as necessary.

              Hopefully we would have enough, given some warning to stock up, to make it thru to the first harvest.

              But my guess is that the odds of our needing to do these things, while also being ABLE to do them, depending on circumstances, are slight……. maybe one or two percent per year on the low end and twenty percent annually on the high end if we actually get into a hot fight with the Russians themselves.

              I don’t expect to live long enough to have to cope with runaway climate problems at the local or personal level.

            5. There will likely be much movement of the people; some of whom are quite nice and deserving of assistance, some of whom are pimps & thieves in need of socialist literature, and some of whom are spies. Mutual aid groups would likely benefit from having a security intelligence team.
              Check out Low Intensity Operations: Subversion, Insurgency and Peacekeeping by Frank Kitson. Deep thoughts from a nasty bloke.

          2. but my definition of competence includes knowing when NOT to shoot.

            I’ve been the victim of 3 armed robberies.
            If I was armed, myself, or 3 other people, would probably be dead.

            1. I’m a Darwinist , bottom line.

              I don’t believe in an afterlife, except in the hearts of people I was good to, and none of us are going to live forever. Death is the one universal rule of life, other than reproduction.

              So far as I’m concerned, anybody who tries to rob me is at substantial risk of serious injury or death.

              I wouldn’t kill a kid or a woman with a hungry kid, unless I judged it necessary to save my own life. I would actually share to the extent I possible in such a situation.

              If a man impresses me as being willing and likely to kill me, I’m going to deprive him of the opportunity if I can.

              I go armed when I feel the need, or if I’m going to a place that I know to be dangerous for me.

              This is not to say I’m afraid. I forget to buckle my seat belt sometimes. I’m not afraid of having an accident.I try to be prudent about avoiding accidents.

              I go armed less much less than ten percent of the time.

  5. OFm , “If a man impresses me as being willing and likely to kill me, I’m going to deprive him of the opportunity if I can. ”
    Talking about man
    ” Man – a creature made at the end of the week’s work when God was tired.
    – Mark Twain ”
    Don’t know whether to laugh or cry ?

    1. Crying hurts.
      Laughing is better, even if it’s a bitter cynical laugh.

      Most people never fully realize they live their lives based on a subconscious application of probability theory.

      But every time we get on a bicycle we balance the cost of driving versus the cost of biking, and the risk of injury biking versus the value of the exercise.

      ( It turns out that even though some bikers get killed by cars, they live longer and happier lives than non bikers, statistically speaking. )

      We balance risk versus reward, mentally, even if we do so subconsciously, all day long. Buying a house…… it’s reward versus risk. Owning is a lot cheaper, long term, in an inflationary environment, but house prices CAN and do crash, and you MIGHT be better off renting and investing any cash saved this way in the stock market, etc.

      I’ve been doing dangerous work, and playing dangerous games, since I was a kid, picking apples. My next door neighbor fell picking, and was seriously handicapped for the rest of his life.

      I knew guys who died riding motorcycles but I still owned and rode half a dozen myself.

      I worked with chainsaws, and drove tractors on mountain farms, and hiked in the woods alone where a fall could have left me dying alone with a broken leg, and nobody looking for me.

      I worked with explosive gases, and some of the nastiest pesticides ever sold in the USA……. at least half a dozen of them that are outlawed now.

      And I’m still here….. moving slow but still moving, BECAUSE I have for the most part been lucky enough to get away with all these things.

      BUT and this is a BIG BUT, I was also smart enough to know when to back off on the motorcycles, and to follow the safety regs using the pesticides, and keep my mind on what I was doing operating the tractors and chainsaws.

      It’s simple. You compute the odds, consciously or subconsciously, and you act to take care of yourself and your loved ones.

      You would have to be an idiot to ALLOW an enemy likely to kill you to actually do so. DEAD is a lot worse than potentially being arrested and locked up for murder…… which would be the worst case alternative.

      Most people in a country such as the USA live their lives in a bubble, isolated from the true nature of every day realities that make the world go around.

      When reality does eventually bite a big chunk out of their ass, they won’t have the foggiest idea what to do.

      Eighty to ninety five percent of what I read on sites about dealing with an economic and environmental crash is simply and totally impractical in terms of what an average man or woman working in a typical job in this country today could actually hope to DO.

      1. Most people in a country such as the USA live their lives in a bubble–

        Yea, when I used to go into Bogota (half the city there were no police) in the 70’s, and your only comrades were ex viets from Nam, who couldn’t live in the States as it drove them crazy, it was a different reality, I agree.
        Or waking up on a beach in El Salvador to gunshots, with a drunk shooting a 9, as the bullets scattered around you.
        I agree, the States are in a bubble.

      2. Thanks OFM , Going to take a swig of my favorite single malt . ” Here is looking at you , kid ” Boggie in the movie ” Casablanca ” . 🙂

      3. Sure they’ll have a foggiest idea what to do. Just like those on the upper floors of the World Trade Center did …

  6. About long range electric trucks…….

    I’ve been around the business enough to know that a LOT of merchandise is light enough that there’s no room in a trailer for a full load as measured by weight.

    I’m wondering if there’s anybody taking advantage of this potential opportunity to put some batteries in the trailer itself, probably under the floor between the frame rails.

    The extra batteries would for sure cost a hell of a lot, but this way the range of such a truck could likely be extended out to close to double what is possible with all the batteries mounted in the tractor, and still collect the full freight bill for shipping such lightweight goods.

    Any links or opinions will be appreciated, thanks in advance.

  7. To continue a conversation that really should be in the non-petroleum thread: the significance of what is happening in crypto space. At its height I believe crypto market cap was about 1.5 trillion, but with financialization the crytpo market had about 3 trillion input. Both of those numbers are about half right now. So the question that’s maybe most interesting is what entities were selling derivatives that were acting as protection/puts against a downturn. Obviously most of the sucker bag-holders after the superbowl ads are left with losses (somewhere around 40% of ALL bitcoin holders are under water and many other coins – Luna I’m looking at you – are down way way more). But what and how many financial institutions were selling products in late 2020 and throughout 2021 becoming increasingly more confident that they were essentially making free money.

    1. As the best example – Luna (was) a stablecoin that was at $116 a month ago. It is now below a penny. I owned Luna, made money off Luna, and there are a lot of HODLers out there and true believers. And many of them leveraged and a significant portion of them with access to millions of dollars of leverage that is tied to other assets via financial institutions. Sure you can fire the poor schmuck that wrote and sold $40 million in put-derivatives, but that’s not going to prevent the institution from having to honor those commitments. Let the lawsuits begin!

    2. Eulenspiegel (sp) was asking HHH about the current financial situation and pointed to Oil and Europe as the two bright spots. But I think this is out of touch and trying to squint really hard to see a positive here. HHH and I have been warning more or less for months that the knives and shoes are dropping. Europe is not looking good at all and only their bonds might be worth buying at this time since they are more likely to “blink” before Volck… I mean Powell… does. And on the oil side – oil being UP is now a drag on everything else. Its keeping inflation up which is why the Fed can’t stop/won’t stop raising rates. That’s not good people. I told Dennis “See you at the end of June” and we could easily be looking at poor economic situation into Q1 2023. On the medium horizon… China is seeing positive developments and may see a return to growth soonish.

      1. Kim has called for what it is about the US economy . It is a Potemkin economy . The emperor has no clothes .
        https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1525293982133407744.html
        P,S : Don’t tell me who is Kim . I know him from the time he started Megaupload . He stepped on the feet of a lot of the entertainment industry esp Hollywood . He is wanted in US for cybercrime . Anyone who wants a discussion about Kim is going to have to explain Julian Assange .

      2. I have always wondered who will buy PIIGS bonds if ECB does QT ? 100% of the PIIGS are now monetized by the ECB . ECB is now the biggest “bad bank ” in the world , stuffed to the gills with scrap paper assets . Going to be interesting as the dollar flows out of the world to USA . ECB is trapped even worse than the FED .

  8. Interesting podcast on PeakFish
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jq_747zFI5w

    For a brief summary-
    Peak commercial global fish catch was in 1996
    Since then we are down about 15%
    Fish are moving poleward to find more oxygen-rich waters [warm water holds less oxygen]

    my comment- a couple hundred (or thousand) years after peak fossil fuel, fish may begin to recover towards pre-industrial levels

    1. That´s sad news to hear, the increased fragility and damage to the ecosystems, around the globe really, is a very worrying thing. But perhaps an opportunity to buy FCOJ futures?

  10. I’m planning on never having another nice thing to say about Elon Musk if he does close on Twitter and allow the orange orangutan former president back on the site.

    He’s smart enough to know that trump is as bad for humanity as any nazi that ever lived, and that he has superb skills in ONE area…… leading ignorant or stupid people around by their noses, at their own expense.

    The only real difference between allowing trump back on Twitter and passing out a few truckloads of machine guns and ammo in tough neighborhoods is that trump killed more people faster than all the lowlifes in our country, COMBINED.

      1. The whole idea that Musk bought Twitter to enable Free Speech is laughable.

        You can’t run a company losing money for long.

        Twitter, like Facebook, etc … make money by gathering your personal data, selling it to other companies, and sending you ads.

        Musk did not buy Twitter for altruism.

        Musk’s talent is taking your money and putting it in his pocket.

        1. What I don’t get is Twigger’s importance? I never get on it. I have NO IDEA if what I type in that little square ends up anyplace else, what hashtags do or what they’re for. I write computer code for microcontrollers, etc., for a living and seeing that I’m this ignorant about Twigger ought to be indicative as to its worth … cents on the dollar. A company I have no idea what it’s importance is being worth over $40 BILLION … for nothing … as opposed to Caterpillar or Boeing, for example, is unfathomable.

          Fact is, no-one I know gives a flying rat’s ass about Twigger. SMH?!

          1. One idea – Caterpillar and Boeing I bet make fairly big announcements on Twitter. If Musk can sell access to those tweets 0.00003 seconds before they actually publish, those buyers could then feed those tweets into a stock trading algorithm and front run every other algo and (snicker) human out there.

      2. I had an inspiration about Musk earlier today:
        I decided he’s the 21st century version of Henry Ford; an absolute genius who is stark raving crazy. Ford did more than any single entrepreneur to transform society yet was so backward in his social development that he was an actual danger to the very society he transformed. Lucky for 20th century America his ambitions never swayed very far from the technology of making cheap cars. Musk has opportunities that Ford did not have access to.

  11. “Capitalism is constantly searching and requires new territories in which to expand and grow profits.”

    Many people seem to think that capitalism is the the economic system that relies on perpetual growth, as if socialism or communism have some special attribute that allows successful function during stagnation or decline.
    I disagree.
    All human economic systems are dependent on incessant growth for function/success.
    Where they may differ is in the degree to which assets are concentrated among the few vs the common person.
    That depends on how well they are managed/regulated.
    All systems can be severely mismanaged, and they generally are.

    As I see it, socialist systems tend to grow slower than capitalist (I take the minority position that this is a good thing),
    however both are very much prone to severe breakdown in civil society and generalized poverty when growth trends reverse into a state of contraction.

    1. I agree Hickory, perpetual growth is part of human nature, something probably gene deep.

      Capitalism just exploits resources for growth much more efficiently and quickly than other socio-economic systems.

      I don’t think a steady-state economy is a possibility since we live in a universe which is completely dynamic.

      1. The big issues here are
        -the concentration of wealth among the few, and secondarily
        -excessive boom and bust cycles

        Whatever economic system manages those two issues well will be widely accepted and generally successful, given the cards they are dealt.
        I know that in the US we handle those things very poorly.
        Here, the arguments about management has been dominated over and over by those who favor the extremely wealthy, and who favor immediate maximal growth at any cost- human or otherwise.
        In other words- extremely poorly managed capitalism.
        Some people do think we would be better off with poorly managed socialism.
        Perhaps true- depends on the details.

        1. Yea precisely, wealth inequality is proving to be the biggest issue as greed seems to be as infinite as the universe.

          I think its unfortunately really hard to find a perfect balance between socialism and capitalism. Societies always for one reason or another tend to go towards one of the two extremes. Again the root of the problem seems to be innate within human beings manifested into society.

          In some ways its possible we are at the point of no return, with the billionaire class having firm grip on power. Surely they will dictate how the policies of the future will play out. Only thing impeding their total conquest seems to be climate change and the depletion of primary energy sources.

      2. Iron Mike,

        Yes the World is dynamic, but so is a sinusoidal function. “Steady state” could be roughly sinusoidal with no long term trend up or down, if World population stabilized at some sustainable level (say 500 million to 1 billion or what ever is the correct number).

    2. Oooof , that’s a lot of stupid Hickory, but you go with it. The focus on “inequality” is also a terrible idea since it is so vague as to be useless. I would recommend “Dawn of Everything” by Graeber and Wengrow for clarification. Humans are creative and imaginative. But we are clearly stuck. The fact that you cannot conceive of a human system that doesn’t RELY on growth is pretty sad.

      1. “The fact that you cannot conceive of a human system that doesn’t RELY on growth is pretty sad.”

        Try to not be sad based on your perception of my imperfections.

  12. Hi Hickory,
    I don’t personally believe a so called steady state economy is necessarily an impossibility.

    Are you saying you believe that such an economy is an impossibility, or in other words than no such an an economy has ever existed or can exist?

    1. OFM , I support Hicks . The current credit( or is it debt ) economic system today is based on the premise of continued growth . When the growth stops it will collapse automatically . There will be no intermediate stage as a ” steady state economy ” . It never existed and cannot exist . Prove me wrong . The ball is in your court .
      P.S : ” It never existed and cannot exist .” . Why do I say this ? The problem is ” Overshoot ” as defined by Catton . You know what I am talking about .

    2. OFM and Iron Mike-
      On steady state economy, I suspect that there are periods when such a scenario occurred and lasted for a long time, on a small scale such as a small tribe under primitive conditions.
      On a bigger scale we call such times names like “The Dark Ages”, or “The Hundred Year War”

      But I think that if we want to attempt the experiment of a steady and stable economy in this finite world of 8 billion , we will have to first undergo a severe and long sustained contraction.
      No economic system that i have heard of has a recipe to manage that phase.
      No political party has ‘managed contraction’ as part of its platform.
      Very few companies have contraction as part of their business plan.
      Very few families have holidays celebrating contraction.
      Its something to be avoided, to be mourned.

      1. Again I agree Hickory.

        If history is any guide you are probably right. Prior to agrarian societies, we did live in a “steady” state economy. The thing about it is we would probably deplete resources in a given area and then move on. Giving enough time for the area pillaged time to recover. (Due to very low populations)

        So you are entirely correct, a huge deleveraging of population would be the first step towards some form of steady state.

        And your last paragraph is spot on. It reminds me of agent smith classifying us as a virus in the matrix.

        1. I’m hoping the simplistic outlooks people have on the anthropological history of humanity will one day be corrected. I doubt this will happen prior to civilization collapsing and the eradication of all these wrong theories by way of extinction of the knowledge base.

      2. Hi Hickory,
        I see we are still on the same page.

        I fully agree that IF we can transition to a steady state economy, it won’t and can’t happen until after we experience a long and extremely painful period of contraction.

        But as I see things, the likelihood of this long and extremely painful contraction is so close to one hundred percent that it’s a given.

        So……… the question is for now and for quite some time to come of only theoretical importance.

        Nuance is critical, and it’s hard to impossible to communicate involved thoughts in a couple of paragraphs.

        And speaking of Huntington Beach, I hope he’s ok and will be back.

        I used to give him a hard time about HRC…….. but my general idea was and remains to get it across to the Democrats that you don’t run candidates with ROTTEN poll ratings, period.

        The fact that her baggage problems were in very large part the result of right wing propaganda operations is totally irrelevant, in terms of WINNING.

        Qualified, yes. Charismatic, well liked by independent and so called middle of the road voters? NO.

        Bill would have won hands down. He knew how to relate to the real traditional core of the Democratic party, the WORKING people, and I don’t mean the ones who wear expensive clothing and drive nice cars to jobs mostly involving a keyboard or microphone.

        Bill would have taken the fight TO trump.

        Now having said this much, it’s at least possible that such a contraction won’t be unbearably painful.

        Women and couples every where are deciding to have fewer and fewer children, and with a great deal of luck, we might actually pass the population hump and start downsizing before the world goes entirely to hell in a hand basket.

        Maybe some well intentioned do gooder with an extra billion bucks or two or three will decide to spend it on providing free birth control pills and devices to anybody that wants them, anywhere they can be delivered.

        Offering a free laptop, solar panel, and internet connection as bait might convince tens of millions or even a billion women to get an implant, and once IN there, implants work for quite some time.

        At any rate the people who insist that downsizing can lead only to economic disaster never seem to remember that generations to come will be inheriting a well developed if badly damaged planet, and the accumulated technical and scientific wisdom of the ages.

        Furthermore it’s altogether possible that Mother Nature,being the totally indifferent bitch that she is, might solve OUR population problem for us. To her, it’s nothing. SHE only keeps score via the fossil record anyway.

        My hypothetical multi billionaire might just decide to help her along a little. I’ve talked to a couple of microbiologists off the record of course who say it’s a cinch that creating a disease that would either kill or render a substantial percentage of us sterile wouldn’t be all that big a job.

        They also say that the large majority of their fellow professionals agree on this point, but are for very understandable reasons reluctant to say so in public.

        1. OFM,
          I am completely in the dark about what happens during or after a phase of contraction, other than that i expect humans to behave even more poorly than they have during this unique rapid growth explosion of the past 200 years, if you can imagine that.
          I don’t know about ‘steady state’ economy. Its a foreign concept, and a theoretical one.

          We can live with less per person,
          but I doubt we will ever willingly give much back to ‘nature’, or to other tribes for that matter.
          From what i read, it looks like climate is going to be far different than the mild and steady conditions of the 20th century. year 1900- 1.6 Billion people.
          Hard to achieve some steady state when base conditions will be changing strongly.

          1. Hi Hick,
            We’re still on the same page.

            I’m absolutely sure that a vastly reduced population, world wide, is essential to any possible steady state economy.

            And of course we’re first and foremost naked apes, and will continue to act in the future as we have in the past.

            And while I believe something approaching a steady state economy is at least theoretically possible, and even achieve able, at least on a limited basis, I must agree with you that it wouldn’t be likely to last very long, in historical terms, because we’re what we are… shortsighted, envious, greedy, stupid, horny, lazy and inherently violent if violence seems to be a useful behavior at any given time.

      3. However, economic growth does not mean using more energy or owning a larger mass of things. GDP growth can come from decreasing inputs, or from increasing the value per kilogram of products sold.

        That may or may not happen, but it makes trying to to tie economics to thermodynamics a chump’s game.

        As Richard Feynmann put it, there’s plenty of room at the bottom.

        Take mobile phones for example. The high end ones can cost $900 and only weigh 150 grams. That’s about $6000 per kilo.

        Compare that to a Ford F150, that costs maybe $36000 and weighs maybe 3000 kilos. That’s about $3 per kilo.

        A mobile phone is worth 2000 times as much as a pickup per unit mass. The limits of economic growth depend heavily on what people choose to spend their money on.

        1. And it makes a huge difference in terms of what they value. It seems weird that the group above literally cannot even CONCEIVE of a society that is not based on growth. Now, they would argue that any society with significant technology is living “beyond its means”, but I would (and I think you would too alim) argue this ratio could be so dramatically reduced as to make a lot of the issues we are dealing with extremely manageable. Of course, each day that goes by makes this less likely, and it ends up that the horizon of “sustainable society” is essentially mud humans that trade rocks back and forth.

      4. Hickory,

        Social systems can change, I imagine people in 1300 CE could not envision a modern capitalist social system.

        I do not know what the structure of a future social structure will look like 500 years in the future, but I imagine it will be different than today,

        1. certainly..
          I don’t have any special insights on the world beyond a few decades, especially the world of humans

    3. That’s exactly what he said and meant OFM. I really thought Hick was smarter than that. That’s like Huntington Beach dumb.

  14. Renewables snapshot: Are we on track to decarbonise the globe?

    Electrification of everything (transport, heating and industry), mostly via solar and wind, requires doubling or tripling electricity production, depending on the size of the chemical and metals industries in a particular country and the amount of synthetic aviation fuel required.

    About 80TW of combined solar and wind is required to decarbonise the globe, which can be achieved by mid-century at current annual growth rates.

    This is estimated by assuming 10 billion people each enjoy similar energy services to Australians today, including full decarbonisation via renewable electrification of nearly everything (20MWh of electricity per person per year). Land requirements are modest: 50-100 m2 of solar panels per person.

    Hydro generation capacity reached 1.4 TW and new capacity is averaging 0.02 TW per year. Since the number of rivers available for damming is finite, hydro cannot be a major player in global electricity markets. However, pumped hydro energy storage has a major role to play in balancing variable solar and wind.

    Global coal generation capacity is still rising slowly (Figure 2). However, excluding China, global capacity has been falling for several years as older power stations close. On a per-capita basis, China was second to Vietnam for new coal plant, while Portugal, Canada and Germany were the champion countries for closing coal plant.

    1. If you accept the assumptions of this author, it will take an 89-fold increase in
      global wind/solar installation over the next 27 years compared to the total so far installed over the past 27 years, to achieve the goal.
      Its a lot of work, and mining/manufacturing, and capital.
      Some of it will get done.

    2. 2021 BROUGHT A RECORD SURGE IN COAL USE

      In 2021, global electricity generation from coal increased by nine percent, the highest in history, according to the International Energy Agency. Most of that increase came from power plants in China and India, where the need for electricity jumped by nine and 12 percent, respectively. Europe saw a 12 percent increase while the U.S. went up by 17 percent – despite nearly a decade of declines in coal power generation in both regions.

      “Coal and emissions from coal are stubborn,” said IEA’s executive director Fatih Birol. “Without strong and immediate actions by governments to tackle coal emissions – in a way that is fair, affordable and secure for those affected – we will have little chance, if any at all, of limiting global warming.”

      https://grist.org/climate-energy/coal-isnt-dying-yet-2021-brought-a-record-surge-in-use/

      And,

      THE WORLD GENERATED MORE POWER FROM COAL IN 2021 THAN EVER BEFORE

      The amount of electricity generated from coal is expected to hit an all-time high this year, as electricity demand outpaces low-carbon supply options, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). That means that the world’s climate targets may be getting further out of reach. There is a gap between the countries ambitions and what’s happening, according to the IEA. In a press conference to discuss the report, Birol called the report a “sobering reality check of the government policies.” “This year coal electricity generation and next year the entire coal use may hit a historic high,” he says. “It shows us that coal and the emissions that come from coal are stubborn. They don’t pay attention to what the government says, what experts say, what the wishful thinking is.”

      https://time.com/6129192/international-energy-agency-coal-2021-report/

  15. EUROPE AND US SET FOR SCORCHING, DRY SUMMER

    Europe and parts of the U.S. are set for a sweltering and dry summer this year, posing risks for crops and boosting demand for energy for cooling at a time when prices of commodities are already running high. Scientists at the Copernicus Climate Change Service, who published their seasonal outlook on Friday, said hotter and drier weather is highly likely across key agricultural regions in the European Union. It could bring drought conditions for farmers who are already battling the impacts of climate change. Abnormally high temperatures could also fuel natural gas demand for air conditioning. Russia’s war on Ukraine has already driven gas prices in Europe higher, contributing to a cost of living crisis across the region. The scientists said there’s a 70% to 100% probability that temperatures across the northeastern U.S., Spain, France and Italy will be well above average from June to August. At the same time, the chance of below-normal rainfall across swathes of central Europe, France, Spain and the U.S. Northwest was more than 50%, the Copernicus team said.

    https://phys.org/news/2022-05-europe-summer-scientists.html

    1. This week we will see already 40C in some parts of Spain and Portugal. And, as we all know, it’s the middle of May. Well, I guess since this is the non petroleum thread I guess this is good for solar panels, right? Let’s hope we can eat them.

      1. There’s said to be a little bit of silver lining in every black cloud.

        Killer heat waves and blackouts are the sort of thing that encourage people to buy a couple of solar panels big enough to run a window air conditioner.

        My opinion, for what it’s worth, is that environmental advocates should be targeting the SAVINGS, in ads directed to to financially literate conservatives, in actual cash money an individual, a company, or a country can enjoy by investing in wind and solar power .

        The wallet and checkbook reside closer to the heart than the thermometer, especially among the great majority of people ( especially here in the USA) who know so little about the sciences that what little they do know is worse than nothing.

        But even a Bible thumping hillbilly can understand such a simple concept as the fact that when you collectively o buy lots of something, anything really, the price goes UP and when you collectively buy a lot less, the price goes down.

        So………. every electric car sold, every solar panel sold, every wind farm built……. means downward pressure on the prices of coal, oil, natural gas, and critical goods heavily dependent on fossil fuels ranging from lumber to steel to aluminum to groceries…….. because energy is a HUGE part of the retail price of groceries.

        I’m having some success getting local hard core right wingers to understand WHY electric cars are good for THEM, even though they don’t own one, and won’t own one anytime soon.

        Bible thumpers, believe it or not, do tend to think better in at least one respect, than the average man on the street, and better even than some college graduates. They think LONG TERM……… forever, lol.

        They tend to be older, and to know the history of inflation VERY WELL INDEED……. and they do not doubt that the prices of oil and other goods will continue to go up, long term.

        They understand that inflation has made it easy for them to make the last half of the payments on their thirty year mortgages. Etc

        You can get thru to them when you ease into having essentially free electricity after ten years if they buy solar panels with a long term loan now for their own homes…….. because by then the payments will have shrunk considerably in relation to the price of the juice they have to buy otherwise.

  16. Global Energy Review: CO2 Emissions in 2021
    https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-co2-emissions-in-2021-2

    “Global CO2 emissions from energy combustion and industrial processes1 rebounded in 2021 to reach their highest ever annual level. A 6% increase from 2020 pushed emissions to 36.3 gigatonnes (Gt), an estimate based on the IEA’s detailed region-by-region and fuel-by-fuel analysis, drawing on the latest official national data and publicly available energy, economic and weather data.”

    “Coal accounted for over 40% of the overall growth in global CO2 emissions in 2021. Coal emissions now stand at an all-time high of 15.3 Gt, surpassing their previous peak (seen in 2014) by almost 200 Mt. CO2 emissions from natural gas also rebounded well above 2019 levels to 7.5 Gt, as demand increased in all sectors. At 10.7 Gt, emissions from oil remained significantly below pre-pandemic levels because of the limited recovery in global transport activity in 2021.”

    Got AC?

  17. Yes, things are horrible.

    Everything is just wrong, in so many domains. I can feel it coming out of my eyes.

  18. I was having some ‘first world problems’ today so I came here to read the comments. I can’t say that I feel better for having done so, but it has put things in a better perspective. I can always rely on you all here to hit your licks.

    1. SURVIVALIST —

      Short summary of our current predicament.

      CLIMATE CHANGE INDICATORS HIT RECORD HIGHS IN 2021

      Four key climate change indicators all set new record highs in 2021, the UN said Wednesday, warning that the global energy system was driving humanity towards catastrophe. Greenhouse gas concentrations, sea level rise, ocean heat and ocean acidification all set new records last year, the UN’s World Meteorological Organization said in its “State of the Global Climate in 2021” report. The annual overview is “a dismal litany of humanity’s failure to tackle climate disruption.”

      https://phys.org/news/2022-05-climate-indicators-highs.html

  19. Nasdaq
    11,446.17
    -538.35(-4.49%)
    Quite the hit.
    Dow down 1000 also.

  20. Pardon the repost from the fossil thread, but some here may find resonance with the comment-

    Some people acknowledge the concept of global population overshoot
    is applicable to not only tadpoles in a small pond in mid spring,
    but also applicable to 8 billion human beings on planet earth.

    The most gentle way that human population overshoot could correct itself is very gradual economic pressure,
    giving strong and clear signal to force downsizing of population and economic footprint.
    We will be extremely fortunate if this gradual forcing is the worse way this plays out.
    What would this mildest case look like?
    look around now for all the early signs…
    stagflation trending toward deep and prolonged recession, tightening of credit, rising interest rates, decline of purchasing power, resource nationalism (tariffs, sanctions, embargo’s, export restrictions), food and energy price escalation and shortages- even to the extent of rationing, extreme displays of racism and ethnic nationalism, large scale migrations and regional armed conflicts (regional if we are lucky), for example.

    I am not predicting that there will necessarily be constant downward pressure without episodes of stability or rebound, but the ingredients are certainly in place for sustained deep downdraft.
    No one should be surprised, given the severe condition of overshoot that we are in.

Comments are closed.