54 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum, June 5, 2021”

  1. Many thanks to everyone who chipped into the Many Worlds/fine tuning discussion on the previous thread. Fascinating. Much appreciated!

    1. PS Here’s a link to some incredible pictures of our universe.

      https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2020/12/2020-hubble-space-telescope-advent-calendar/617199/

      For example, picture #22:
      >>
      Peering into Pandora’s Cluster. Abell 2744, nicknamed Pandora’s Cluster, is a huge galaxy cluster thought to have a very violent history, having formed from a cosmic pile-up of multiple galaxy clusters. Nearly every object seen here is a separate galaxy made up of hundreds of millions of individual stars.
      <<

    2. You may also have wondered why physicists think there are more the four dimensions (including time).

      When Einstein got widely published after WWI, a mathematician named Theodor Kaluza wondered if Einstein’s equations work in more than three-plus-one dimensions. There was no physical motivation for this: it was pure math.

      There is a gap between gravity and electromagnetism (and the other fundamental forces). You can somehow imagine gravity as bent spacetime (if you’re Einstein), because gravity affects all particles the same way. Einstein’s idea was that when you throw a baseball in the air, and it flies up and then falls down, it is actually moving in a straight line through curved space.

      But even if you can deal with that, it is hard to explain how a positively charged particle can take a different path than a negatively charged particle. Space seems to be bent one way for positive charges and the opposite way for negative charges at the same time. So electromagnetism seems impossible to fit into the bent space idea. But Quantum Mechanics (developed later) sees gravity as one of four similar forces.

      Kaluza stumbled on an interesting math result: You can describe charge as momentum in a fifth dimension. In other words, five-dimensional spacetime can be curved in such a way that within a four dimensional slice, the curvature sends particles in opposite directions depending on the direction of their momentum in the fifth dimension, perpendicular to the other four dimensions. (To grasp this, imagine all three space dimensions as a two dimensional plane in three dimensional space.)

      This result is great math, but seemed to have no physical meaning. A four dimensional slice of a five dimensional space is infinitesimally thin in the fifth dimension. So if a particle has momentum in the fifth dimension, it can only exist for an infinitesimally short instant in that four dimensional slice, before moving on to the next slice.

      Since we presumably live in only one slice of the putative five dimensional world, the result remained a mathematical curiosity for some years. Our world can’t be moving with the charged particle from slice to slice, since positively charged particles are moving one way and negatively charged particles the other.

      Also, Kaluza’s result predated Quantum Mechanics, so it was a solution is search of a problem. Nobody much noticed it.

      Towards the end of the twenties, Oskar Klein found away to fit Kaluza’s result into Quantum Mechanics, then brand new. Instead of imagining the fifth dimension as being flat and extending infinitely far in both dimensions from “our” four dimensional slice, Klein suggested that it was a tiny circle.

      Imagine the surface of a tube. It has one flat linear dimension and one circular dimension. Klein’s idea is that empty spacetime has four flat dimensions and one circle. The circle is so tiny we don’t notice it — a very skinny tube. Charged particles zoom around and around the tube in opposite directions, depending on their charge. Uncharged particles stay put. Because the tube is so skinny it doesn’t matter where you are on the circumference of tube, only where you are along the length of the tube.

      To accommodate the new forces, more circular dimensions have been added since then, making it hopeless to try to imagine what it looks like. I think there are eleven or so. But that is the basic idea, called Kaluza-Klein Theory.

  2. Wasn’t sure which thread to put this in, but since it deals with much more than just oil scarcity, I thought I’d put it here.

    After some on this board recommended Christopher Clugston’s “Blip” I bought myself a copy. I just finished reading it and I’m pretty impressed. If I have a criticism, it’s that Clugston tends to go over the same points ad nauseum. He could have made a much more streamlined work with some more editing.

    However, despite some flaws, “Blip” is a tour de force. Clugston breaks the history of industrialism into a series of eras, which he calls Industrialism1, Industrialism2, and Industrialism3. Between the periods of industrialism are periods of scarcity, in which sub-global areas face non-renewable resource shortages in their domestic economies. These periods of scarcity cause significant pain before they are (somewhat) ameliorated through the use of imports (whether through trade or colonialism). Clugston demonstrates that, just as each local area hits a period of scarcity, eventually that scarcity must become global in reach, and there will be no where else to go to find the necessary materials to fix that scarcity.

    It’s refreshing to read a work in the “doomer” space that is not entirely focused on energy. Clugston demonstrates (using hard numbers) that we are rapidly running into limits in a variety of resources, not just oil, gas, and coal. He effectively shows the rates at which regions tend to experience scarcity issues after industrialism begins. He also connects the dots – instead of only showing how it is getting more and more difficult to supply industrial society with material inputs, he connects those observations to culture, politics, and finance, taking a historical perspective which clearly shows the likely path forward for humanity.

    What I liked most about the book is the absolute dependence on data. Every chapter is full of charts, graphs, and tables, from reliable sources, which illustrate the point Clugston is making: that we are running out of mineral inputs to our society, and we are running out quickly.

    This book really drove home the point for me (though I have thought it for a long time) that a successful transition to renewables simply will not happen. We do not have enough material runway to both sustain our current civilization and make the necessary transition. Industrial society will fall apart (in fact, as Clugston convincingly shows, is already doing so) long before we manage to successfully transition to a clean, bright, renewable future.

    Well worth a read, although I recommend skimming quickly over the numerous parts where Clugston is repeating himself.

    1. Hi Niko,
      “a successful transition to renewables simply will not happen. We do not have enough material runway to both sustain our current civilization and make the necessary transition”
      I suspect some places will get some of the energy transition job done, and others not so much. Its not an all or none scenario.
      Is that what you think?

      1. Of course some areas will “make it” more or less than others, at least initially. Indeed, some already have thanks to abundant hydro reaources.

        But without current global supply chains, it’s really hard to see how an isolated successful implementation of certain renewable technologies will give them a significant advantage over anything but the short term.

        Clugston makes clear that it is truly an all materials problem we are facing, not only an energy problem. Suppose some country, say Norway (since they are rather far along on renewables, or so I’ve heard) is able to sustain energy production after they no longer have access to fossil fuels. If the rest of the global supply network has fallen apart due to material scarcity, how long does this energy supply benefit them? Without material (shipped from all over the world) can they make anything with their energy? Can they keep in working order what they already have? Can they replace components that age out of service?

        Whether or not you have energy, sustaining anything like our current way of life absolutely demands access to materials, materials which at this point must be shipped (not to mention mined, processed, and turned into goods) from all over the world. Few areas can get them locally anymore due to depletion.

        So yes, some areas will transition, but only in the context of the global supply chains and materials resources that make transition possible. Once they can no longer get the industrial inputs they need from either local or far-away sources, their grid will be fated to fail at around the 30-50 year mark, since they will have no ability to maintain, repair, or expand it.

        In the long run, the transition appears unlikely to be successful anywhere. And, in the areas where it is “successful”, through some combination of build out during the present, and scavenging activities in the future to maintain the grid, you will still have a society with vastly reduced wealth, resources, and opportunities compared to the one we have now.

        1. The EU has 5,400 functioning offshore wind turbines, the USA has 7.

        2. I agree with all that Niko.
          An example of the global supply constraints is being seen in a minor form currently with semiconductors. Many automakers have curtailed production due to the shortage.
          With the eventual global trade curtailment in particular materials and energy, it would be wise for many places to get going on a brisk pace of renewable deployment now, I think.
          Longer term, it will be a challenge to downsize a country without being overrun, or drifting into severe poverty.
          I have seen newer population projections showing that global population will peak by 2060, rather than around 2100.
          It will happen even faster (and more painfully) if global material and energy shortage becomes significant in the shorter term. And it likely will.

            1. There is scenario that isn’t addressed very much, and I see some version of it as very likely.
              Many countries will have trouble maintaining stability within, as this century progresses. The gap between haves and have nots will be growing. especially once oil becomes scarce (and particularly in places that do not have well developed replacement energy sources and local food production).
              Failed state status is a huge risk. and the list of countries failing into that category will be long, I lament. It is no picnic to be a human being in a failed state.

              In the USA, I see the fight for country control in various facets. One big aspect is that people are trying to choose which political party is less likely to lead the country to failed state status (even if the analysis is not a conscious one). For the republican party, failed state status appears to mean loss of white priveledge/white supremacy, and loss of the supreme priveledge for the super wealthy. Thus the desperation from them that we see. Their desperation brings us dangerously close to loss of democracy here, and a replacement with a form of fascism. We are very close to generalized civil unrest here, depending on how things go.

        3. There are no easy answers to this. Energy questions are complex for sure. A lot have to do with energy security. One input is that there is some hope specifically when it comes to how electricity can be utilised. If the energy transition means getting rid of coal, oil and natural gas to solar, wind and hydro. Then it is actually possible to use heat pumps with 50-100% efficiency gain in average (in optimal solutions a lot more) to replace natural gas, and also use EV with just 1/3 energy use compared to gas/diesel due to heat generation in the combustion process or maybe 1/2 when accounting heat pump in the car or AC as often is the case. So in optimal conditions increase in renewable energy measured in exajoules (as measured by BP statistical review of world energy) can replace 2 folds of the energy content of fossil fuels lost for some years going forward (oil/gas in this case). That is why many scientists advocate the “green transformation” and it is something to rally behind. The policy prolongs the oil age for sure, but also makes it much easier for future generations. (a large drop in fossil fuel supplies without an alternative is a nightmare.)

    1. Not seeing too many details in that article, but if we’re talking 70 kWh for 20 litres of water, that’s pitiful. Average desal plants get a fraction of that for thousands of litres, so for helping in the area, it’s a no go. Especially as it took a day to even do that paltry amount.

      We’re also not running out of affordable lithium on the land any time soon, so this is up there with mining seawater for gold in terms of practicality. Especially as it also relies on rare earths that ain’t exactly cheap to scale up to anything like industrial output levels.

  4. Not encouraging, or surprising!

    WE ARE RUNNING OUT OF TIME TO REACH DEAL TO SAVE NATURAL WORLD

    “Resource extraction, agricultural production and pollution are driving what some scientists believe is the sixth mass extinction of life on Earth, with one million species at risk of disappearing largely as the result of human activity. The world has never met a single UN target to prevent the destruction of nature.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/07/age-of-extinction-running-out-of-time-to-reach-deal-to-save-natural-world-says-un-talks-chair

    1. Meanwhile,

      CARBON DIOXIDE LEVELS HIT 50% HIGHER THAN PREINDUSTRIAL TIME

      The annual peak of global heat-trapping carbon dioxide in the air has reached another dangerous milestone: 50% higher than when the industrial age began. And the average rate of increase is faster than ever. The 10-year average rate of increase also set a record, now up to 2.4 parts per million per year.

      “The world is approaching the point where exceeding the Paris targets and entering a climate danger zone becomes almost inevitable,” said Princeton University climate scientist Michael Oppenheimer, who wasn’t part of the research.

      https://phys.org/news/2021-06-carbon-dioxide-higher-preindustrial.html

    2. For reference, these are all the UN globalist doomsday ecobullshit catastrophic narratives they’ve crafted in chronological order beginning in the 1970’s
      1. “Global Cooling”
      2. “Acid Rain”
      3. “Peak Oil”
      4. “Global Warming”
      5. “Sea Level Rise”
      6. “Climate Change”
      7. “Human Caused Hurricanes”
      8. “Sixth Mass Extinction”
      9. “Climate Emergency”

      1. Sounds like a winning list to me, all except “Global Cooling.” The others are on the mark.

      2. No Mike, this guy Steven Haner is obviously a blooming idiot. You should not encourage him. He is calling Acid Rain, Peak Oil, Global warming, Sea Level Change, and the Sixth Mass Extinction echobullshit. This guy is obviously a right-wing dumb and dumber dumbass. An idiot of the worst kind. No, he is nowhere near the mark. And you are not either if you believe him.

        1. Ron, you misinterpreted my remark. What he calls “bullshit” I call a “winning list,” meaning the list is right on: these things are real and happening, “on the mark.”

          1. (Which is why I leave off “global cooling” as it’s the only one that ain’t happening.)

      3. Steven Haner is a Qtard.

        “The best argument against Democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.”

      4. I know the guys who were doing the study down in the SE USA. They were actually measuring very low PH mositure events. The set up was interesting in that that had a fan and cube with plastic mesh where the high RH’s events would cause the moisture to condense and then fall into the cube. They would measure the PH and it was actually quite low. So the phenomena is not BS.

    1. Sounds extremely sustainable and eco-friendly. I’m sure there won’t be any damaging side effects if this is undertaken.

  6. Liquid Marijuana

    June Moon: My Favourite Moon Phase (‘Caligraphic’)

    “…Traditionally, the thinnest sliver of the Waxing Crescent Moon is considered the New Moon.”

    Waxing Crescent Moon

    “Next Waxing Crescent Moon
    Starts: Jun 10, 2021 at 6:52 am
    Ends: Jun 17, 2021 at 11:54 pm
    Times for the Waxing Crescent Moon vary by time zone. Times and dates are based on the local time in Sherbrooke.
    With some variations, the Waxing Crescent Moon rises in the daytime before noon and becomes visible in the day sky. It gets more visible around sunset but typically sets before midnight…”

  7. Trashing our oceans, lots of hot news on World Oceans Day (Tues., June 8th, 2021). Of course, when CO2 is released into the atmosphere, from the burning of fossil fuels, roughly 25% is absorbed into certain areas of the ocean. So, we have ongoing acidification (along with pollution and overfishing) —

    OCEANS ARE IN A ‘DEATH SPIRAL’ WITH WORLD LEADERS ‘DRAGGING THEIR FEET’

    “The chemistry of the water is now being changed rapidly by greenhouse gas emissions, while supertrawlers are plundering the sea in an unsustainable harvest. Operation Ocean Witness will track factory trawlers which have mile-long nets that scoop up everything in their path and the boats dragging heavy fishing gear along the seabed, which rips up fragile nurseries for marine life.” Not pretty but don’t despair; they say there is now 5.25 trillion macro and micro pieces of plastic in our ocean & 46,000 pieces in every square mile of ocean, weighing up to 269,000 tonnes. And, every day around 8 million pieces of plastic makes their way into our oceans. So, looking on the bright side, when the fish are gone our oceans will still be a great places to dump (more) garbage.

    https://news.sky.com/story/climate-change-oceans-are-in-a-death-spiral-with-world-leaders-dragging-their-feet-greenpeace-warns-12327285

  8. Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD)
    CCC – CoinMarketCap. Currency in USD
    32,139.34-3,713.17 (-10.3568%)

    Something that has no value, eventually achieves no value?
    With capitalism, who knows?

  9. In case you haven’t been paying attention.

    CO2 REACHES ITS HIGHEST LEVEL IN MORE THAN 4 MILLION YEARS

    “The ultimate control knob on atmospheric CO₂ is fossil-fuel emissions,” said Ralph Keeling, a geochemist at Scripps and son of the scientist who launched measurements in 1958, “but we still have a long way to go to halt the rise, as each year more CO₂ piles up in the atmosphere. We ultimately need cuts that are much larger and sustained longer than the COVID-related shutdowns of 2020.”

    https://phys.org/news/2021-06-co2-highest-million-years.html

        1. Weird how POB gets so many trolls. This is the one place I know of online that absolutely does not tolerate them. The users ignore and make fun, and the site operators ban and delete their posts. Yet they keep coming.

        2. It should be a valid question as its absolutely true the higher up you go in industries of power and influence like climate change science the more nepotism and cronyism you’ll find.

    2. As for the topic of Doug’s rant the CO2 cuts because of COVID in 2020 came at the cost of most people’s mental health and well being because they were unemployed, couldn’t travel, couldn’t attend concerts, couldn’t watch live sports, and so on. And some people want to force us back to that? It was the most trying times any of us have ever experienced.

      1. “It was the most trying times any of us have ever experienced” ~ some weak dude who lacks tolerance and perseverance; definitely never did national service.

        You think that’s tough, wait for the famine lolz. Hot tip- tinned gravy makes anything taste good.

      2. That yellow strip across southern Maine doesn’t look like much, but I can attest (as a small farmer) that springs have been horrendously hot and dry for the last five years. Water tables are down, grass is dying, and the TICK population is UP, UP! 90-degree weather in late May, early June is just odd.

        Worse, we now have FIRE BLIGHT in our orchard, which was unheard of just a few years ago.

        Are we feeling the effects of climate change in real time now? Seems like it to me.

        But halleluia, at least everyone is driving big, ugly, loud pickups now, praise Jebus.

    1. Interesting. Hope they remember to build it so that it doesn’t fall over.
      I suppose they have considered that little aspect.

      It does look like a bird shredder though.

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