69 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum, February 26, 2025”

  1. “I don’t change my vote if things don’t change. I don’t think you guys get right memo. I never change my vote without changes in the rules or changes in procedures.”

    — Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-IN), quoted by The Hill, before changing her vote.

    2. HT, you recently said “Market taking a hit.” and I disagreed. Apologies, you were right. Interesting days ahead…

  2. TSLA $290.80 USD -$106.35 (-26.78%) past month.

    Hoist with his own petard.

    1. Musk owns 410,794,076 Tesla shares, so since Trump’s inauguration, the value of his shares have declined by $56,028,204,025.64 The median U.S. salary in 2024 was ~$60,000., so since the onset of Trump Regime 2.0, Musk has lost 933,803 (trending to a million!) person years of median salary.

      This of course is proof of just how committed he is to rooting out corruption and inefficiency in the U.S. Government, personal cost be damned. /snark

  3. BP pivoting to oil and gas because renewables don’t give shareholder value the same day the UK has a study on how far behind RE goals are in the nation, was great timing.

    Now to hear all the freaks go on about fracking Lancashire and exploring the totally not tapped out North Sea while also wanting EV sales to stop cratering (but no, we’re not letting BYD sell without tariffs).

    1. renewable needs huge upfront investment in electricity network and storage.
      China had to build a ultra-HV800KV-DC transfer 3K mile line from Xinjiang to Anhui — this technology is also unique from China only, Simense and Hitachi could only do 400KV

    2. Renewables are profit killers. There’s no way a oil company will ever be happy with those margins. But pivoting back to oil won’t really solve their problem as renewables keep growing and applying downward price pressure to the entire market.

  4. Another giant caves in.

    BP SHUNS RENEWABLES IN RETURN TO OIL AND GAS

    “BP has announced it will cut its renewable energy investments and instead focus on increasing oil and gas production. The energy giant revealed the shift in strategy on Wednesday following pressure from some investors unhappy its profits and share price have been lower than its rivals. BP said it would increase its investments in oil and gas by about 20% to $10bn (£7.9bn) a year, while decreasing previously planned funding for renewables by more than $5bn (£3.9bn).”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3374ekd11po

    1. Meanwhile,

      ‘THE FORESTS ARE GOING UP IN FLAMES – SO IS THE RULE OF LAW’: ARGENTINA’S CLIMATE OF FEAR

      “While climate scientists believe rising temperatures increase the risk of wildfires, Argentina’s president Javier Milei has called the climate crisis a “socialist lie.” Accordingly, his government is imposing budget cuts on its environmental agencies. In 2024, the National Fire Management System budget alone was cut by 81%.”

      https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/feb/26/forests-flames-argentina-wildfires-patagonia-

      1. Ukraine and weapons of mass destruction

        Ukraine, formerly a republic of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) from 1922–1991, once hosted Soviet nuclear weapons and delivery systems on its territory.[1] The former Soviet Union had its nuclear program expanded to only four of its republics: Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine. After its dissolution in 1991, Ukraine became the third largest nuclear power in the world and held about one third of the former Soviet nuclear weapons, delivery system, and significant knowledge of its design and production

        While all these weapons were located on Ukrainian territory, they were not under Ukraine’s control.[4] In 1994, Ukraine agreed to transfer these weapons to Russia for dismantlement and became a party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, in exchange for economic compensation and assurances from Russia, the United States, United Kingdom and France to respect the Ukrainian independence and sovereignty in the existing borders.[5][6] Years later, Russia, one of the parties to the agreement, invaded Ukraine.

        During the subsequent invasion of Ukraine Russia started using their own nuclear weapons as a deterrent against a potential military intervention by other countries. In July 2014, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that Russia has the right to defend Crimea using nuclear weapons,[24] and in March 2015 president Putin said that during the invasion of Crimea he had been prepared to put nuclear forces on alert.[25] Around the same time, a Russian foreign ministry official said that Russia had the right to deploy nuclear arms to the peninsula, which is internationally recognized as Ukrainian territory.[26]

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#:~:text=In 1994, Ukraine agreed to,the Ukrainian independence and sovereignty

      2. The Mirage 2000N can carry one ASMP medium-range nuclear missile, and can also carry two MATRA Magic AAMs for self-defence. Other protection features include the Sabre jamming system and the Spirale chaff system. Because the extra seat decreases range, a pair of drop tanks are carried.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dassault_Mirage_2000N/2000D

        Ukraine’s air force got a boost in its fight against Russia on Thursday with the arrival of Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets from France, along with F-16s from the Netherlands.

        French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu confirmed the transfer of the Mirage jets in a post on X, adding the fighters were flown by Ukrainian pilots who have been training for months in France. French President Emmanuel Macron had promised the Mirage jets to Ukraine last summer.

        “The Ukrainian sky is becoming more secure!” Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said in a post on Facebook.

        Welcoming the arrival of “the first French Mirage 2000 fighter jets and F-16s from the Kingdom of the Netherlands,” Umerov said: “These modern combat aircraft have already arrived in Ukraine and will soon begin carrying out combat missions, strengthening our defense and enhancing our ability to effectively counter Russian aggression.”

        Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked Macron on Thursday for “his leadership and support.”

        “France’s president keeps his word, and we appreciate it,” Zelensky said in a post on X.

        The new fighters are expected to boost Ukrainian forces’ ability to provide air cover for troops, attack ground targets, take on enemy planes, and intercept missiles.

        https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/07/europe/ukraine-france-mirage-fighter-jets-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

  7. A dose of reality.

    ASIA’S COAL BOOM

    • Global Energy Monitor: Asia’s largest economies have three times more coal-fired power capacity under construction than gas-fired capacity.
    • According to GEM, across 10 of Asia’s largest economies, there is just over 1 million megawatts (MW) of new power capacity under construction.
    • Gas-fired power plants account for a mere 7% share of plants under construction.

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Asias-Coal-Boom-is-Bad-News-For-Natural-Gas.html

  8. Russia invaded Ukraine with 36 divisions

    The Russian troops shot dead civilians in cars and raped and hung girls.

    Trump just now has defended Putin

    What a scum bag

    1. Trump said it was Zelenskys fault!!!!!

      Trump is a Russian Kompromat ( they have serious dirt on him, he hung out with Jeffrey Epstein for 15 years!!!! )

      https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-named-repeatedly-jeffrey-epstein-files-released-pam-bondi-2037648

      Former Prime Minister Gordon Brown said when he first met Putin, Putin presented a dossier on Brown that mapped out his entire life.

      https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/vladimir-putin-threatened-gordon-brown-27276000

      1. Trump said Zelensky risks world war 3.

        How does not signing a mineral deal risk ww3?

        Trump just wants mineral deal to make his friends rich, none of that money will go back to The American people, just like none of the oil wealth from Iraq helped even veterans with medical bills or pensions tax payers paid it all and the wealth, it all went to the rich 1%.

        Trump is doing exactly what Chamberlain did in 1939, gave a whole section of Czechoslovakia to hitler and then came back saying. Look at me I have secured peace.

        What deal has Trump done with Putin behind the backs of NATO and Ukraine?

        As you say Putin must have dirt on him

        2. No one knows where Epstein got his money.

          Allegedly he was funded by Israel Mossad.

          Anyone notice USA politicians doing whatever Israel wants?

          Epstein had an Island full of underage girls, rooms that were bugged, cameras and microphones.

          The dreaded HONEY TRAP

          Where the Kompromats were flown to regularly?

          Did Trump redact the Epstein files?????

          Trump wants to turn GAZA into a vaction spot!!!

          1. I’ve seen the “Mossad Honey Trap” stuff as well.
            But… (and this is not directed at you, Andre, but at the whole media ecosystem)
            For fuck sake, Putin was the head of the GRU!
            Russia would benefit far more than Israel would. Trump (Putin’s pal) was there frequently.

            Of course, no one is on the record, or, as far as I’ve read, has more than hunches. This is, in my opinion, antisemitic misdirection.

            Look to Russia.

        3. One of the greatest Churchill quotes regarding Chamberlain’s peace in our time claim
          “You were given the choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor and you will have war”
          Trump may have made that same choice

  9. DT is not the only destroyer of nature.

    AFTER A SEARING AMAZON FIRE SEASON, EXPERTS WARN OF MORE IN 2025

    • South America recorded the highest number of fire outbreaks in 14 years in 2024, with Brazil at the epicenter of the crisis.
    • In the Amazon, fire outbreaks grew out of control even amid a sharp reduction in deforestation rates, indicating deforesters are (now) relying on fire.

    South American countries registered 511,575 fire outbreaks in 2024, the highest number since 2010. Brazil accounted for 54% of them, according to the country’s space agency, INPE, with fires mainly hitting the Amazon Rainforest, but also the Pantanal wetlands, the Cerrado savanna, and the country’s most populous state, São Paulo.

    In August 2024, Rodrigo Agostinho, head of IBAMA, Brazil’s environmental agency, said fire was being used as a new deforestation tool, replacing the traditional chainsaws and tractors. “Deforestation is expensive,” Agostinho told Brazil news outlet Agência Pública. “Fire is much cheaper. You just buy some gasoline and spread it around.”

    https://news.mongabay.com/2025/01/after-a-searing-amazon-fire-season-experts-warn-of-more-in-2025/

  10. Looks to me like Trump/Vance just China the green light to take Taiwan and for Russia to go after the rest of Ukraine.
    Explain to me why I’ve got this wrong.

    1. I think you’ve got it right. Ukraine is explicit, while Taiwan is implicit.

      US is continuing to drift towards authoritarian rule with a fascist flavor. For whatever reasons, US is caving to Russian interests as if Putin was writing the script for Trump, Vance and the state department. US is clearly not interested in NATO treaty obligations. The US has completely abandoned Ukraine.

      Longstanding alliances on critical national security and defense topics with countries like Canada, Japan, Taiwan, Mexico and others are secondary to the financial and ideological interests of major campaign contributors (read fossil fuels, Thiel’s silicon valley pals, …) and some fundamentally flawed logic on tariffs.

      Also, a major global conflict (i.e. Taiwan) is one item that suggests Trump could lose a few more points of support. It is hard to imagine that virtually any of our former allies are going to be able to rely on US support for kinetic conflict unless they are ready to make direct or at least indirect payoffs to Trump.

      This is certainly part of what 23% of the population that voted for Trump asked for.

      The only aspect of all this that has been a surprise (at least to me) was the ridiculous suggestion that the US take over Gaza, expel the Palestinians and turn it into a resort. A level of insanity that I would have only expected to see in satire.

      1. No one can trust the US under current ‘leadership’ to show up when the going gets tough.
        I wonder how safe the Taiwanese people now feel under the fake umbrella of the USA.
        If I was them I’d be wondering if the time has come to make a deal with Xi…maybe something like a 30 year year transition to full reunion.

        Most people (not Xi) are completely unaware of just how difficult and expensive it will be to replace the capability of Taiwan Semiconductor Co. It would take the US a decade and a big chunk of a trillion dollars to make the attempt, with no guarantee of success.

        https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/silicon-hegemon-could-china-take-over-taiwans-semiconductor-industry-without-invading
        https://www.cfr.org/blog/will-chinas-reliance-taiwanese-chips-prevent-war
        https://www.csis.org/analysis/silicon-island-assessing-taiwans-importance-us-economic-growth-and-security

          1. Thats just one bit of the scenario.
            If I was from Taiwan I’d be thinking very hard about what will keep me from being the bulleyes on a target….while having zero trust in either the US or China.

    1. Leader of free world or a complete fucking idiot?

      IS TRUMP’S WAR ON CLIMATE SCIENCE PUSHING US INTO A DYSTOPIAN FUTURE?

      US President Donald Trump’s latest war on the climate includes withdrawing support for any research that mentions the word. He has also launched a purge on government websites hosting climate data, in an apparent attempt to make the evidence disappear.

      https://phys.org/news/2025-02-trump-war-climate-science-dystopian.html

      1. Their not complete fucking idiots. Just keep in mind if Trumps lips are moving, he is lying. The wealthy don’t need 8 billiion humans. Which are a product at this time of technological advances. It’s much easier to eliminate the advances from much of the world to address climate change and resource limitations. Restricting food, medicine and education works just fine for the oligarchs.

        Religion and the belief in God is the gift that just keeps on giving for the haves’

      2. I have been saying to friends a long time:

        Trump’s backers are largely Christian eschatological nutcases. They want to usher in the “End Times.” Any climate catastrophes will dutifully be interpreted as Signs Of The Times.

  12. The Ukraine lithium and rare earth minerals are both scams running by EU, US and Ukraine. If you search past archives of Uraine minerals, lithium and especially rare earth was non-existence.
    The US has more lithium and rare earth than Ukraine, and neither US, EU nor Ukraine have the capability to process the lithium and rare earth.

    3. According to the BBC:

      Kyiv estimates that about 5% of the world’s “critical raw materials” are in Ukraine.

      This includes some 19m tonnes of proven reserves of graphite, which the Ukrainian Geological Survey state agency says makes the nation “one of the top five leading countries” for the supply of the mineral. Graphite is used to make batteries for electric vehicles.

      Ukraine has 7% of Europe’s supplies of titanium, a lightweight metal used in the construction of everything from aeroplanes to power stations.

      It is also home to a third of all European lithium deposits, the key component in current batteries.

      Other elements found in Ukraine include beryllium and uranium, which are both crucial for nuclear weapons and reactors.

      Deposits of copper, lead, zinc, silver, nickel, cobalt and manganese are also significant.

      Further, Ukraine has significant deposits of rare earth metals. These are a group of 17 elements that are used to produce weapons, wind turbines, electronics and other products vital in the modern world.
      …more at the site

      https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20le8jn282o

  13. Governments across the globe and or central banks I should say are going to extremes to combat the global dollar shortage.

    India’s central bank has a $100 billion dollar short position on the dollar. They will eventually be blown out of their position by the market. And when it happens the depreciation of the Indian currency will rapidly accelerate.

    They are also having to limit the local currency supply. Which means not making loans that they want to make into their economy. Which will mean lower growth, falling interest rates and everything that comes with an economic contraction. All in the name of supporting the value of their currency.

    India’s plan like everyone else is hope. Hoping that if the can just ride the market out long enough that the tides will change. That dollars will flow more easily in the future.

    Unfortunately hope isn’t a plan. And energy is absolutely underpinning the lack of dollars globally.

    1. HHH

      Maybe I’m not looking at this right but it seems to me that DOGE with all the spending cuts and a reduction in the deficit is exacerbating the situation. There seems to be a large appetite for treasury’s by global commercial banks. Any reduction in US treasuries by sovereign governments has likely just been a reflection of dollar shortages not a rejection of US dollars. It’s an interesting trap no matter how hard you try you can’t leave the Eurodollar system because the debt is held internationally.

      1. The spending bill I seen pass was Nancy Pelosi bill. Which will add another 2 trillion a year to the deficit over the next 10 years. So $20 trillion more over the next 10 years.

        All DOGE can do is try to offset that. Think I seen one million Federal jobs are being targeted. That isn’t enough.

        So the debt looks to expand regardless of DOGE cuts.

        I don’t believe the constraints are going to be collateral as they were in 2008 when US mortgage backed securities were also being used as collateral in the Eurodollar market and got wiped out.

        Not saying there won’t be a problem with collateral because there will be. But what will actually constrain loans from being made is lack of energy. Banks aren’t forgetting how to lend they just don’t want to lend out money into an economy that doesn’t have an expanding energy supply.
        Because debt requires expanding energy be payed back plus interest.

        The ability to pay more back than you actually borrowed due to the interest expense will be severely compromised as available energy shrinks.

        And we already know the net surplus of energy available to the economy is in fact shrinking. Which is why the hope that things will turn around is misplaced.

        Buffet did sell his bank stocks. Makes sense.

        1. I’m confused.

          What ‘Nancy Pelosi bill’ passed recently that will add 2 trillion/yr to the deficit?

          CBO indicates 2022 loaded costs of 271 billion/yr for 2.3 million executive agency, civilian federal workers. 2024 US deficit was about 1.83 trillion, or about 6.8 times as large as that. I’m also not following your math in suggesting there is some number of federal job cuts that is going to balance the deficit, not even counting the potential negative economic impacts of such cuts.

          The declining net energy for oil & gas seems certain, as well as that this will have some serious consequences. However, I can’t imagine this is a common awareness or decision metric in the banking sector. Can you point to any references that show large scale lending decisions driven by joules vs dollars?

          1. I’m sure a lot of banks probably haven’t put it all together yet on why they don’t really want to lend into the economy. Other than the economy sucks and we’d rather lend to the government than make loans into the economy right now. I’d assume the majority don’t give energy a second thought. And rightly so. They have never had to think in terms of energy being available or not.

            They just assume energy will be there and can we make a profit by lending. I’d say the investor class as a whole doesn’t make decisions based on energy because nobody has ever really had to.

            If you’re long AI stocks and bitcoin you’re not thinking energy will be a problem. If you own real estate you’re not thinking about whether or not energy or lack of energy can bring prices down. That’s something that never comes up. And of course when prices go below where you bought in at then you’re underwater hoping something somewhere will change the situation.

            A lot people believe that FED rate cuts will save the day. It just doesn’t work that way. They can do all the cuts they want. Commercial banks are just not going to be making loans unless there is net energy to put to use somewhere in the real economy. And the current housing situation is demand at an all time low. Because people can’t afford to give up their 3% mortgages for 7% mortgages. If mortgage rates crash back to 3% then supply of for sale homes goes through the roof crashing prices.

            A lot of wealthy people are going to get wiped out because they aren’t informed about net energy. A lot of banks have made loans that at the time made sense to them. But will end up as bad loans.

            The recent spending bill that was passed was the same bill Nancy put forward awhile back. No cuts were made to the bill. It was passed quietly so government could continue functioning. For now.

          2. More people than not believe that the next 10 years will be very inflationary for commodities as a whole. Mining for metals and minerals going through the roof to buildout the so called fossil fuel replacements. And infrastructure needed to run the fossil fuel replacements.

            I don’t see it that way. I see large swaths of the population becoming much poorer. Large parts of the economy are going to disappear. Jobs are going to be lost in large numbers and never be replaced elsewhere.

            We will see perfectly fine and healthy young people that never find a job.

          3. HHH

            “We will see perfectly fine and healthy young people that never find a job.”

            It is totally unnecessary to see it that way as we will have energy surplus for a long time still. People can work more manually in agriculture, work to keep energy/mineral from falling, work in the service industry for less payment probably or the government can just expand the payroll for sensible work as a last resort. This requires a functional governance of some type.

            1. I know it’s hard for people to wrap their mind around this. Having a net surplus isn’t good enough. You have to have a growing available energy in order to repay debt plus interest.

              A net surplus be it a shrinking net surplus isn’t good enough. Since the vast majority of money is bank credit. Something like 99% of money is created when a commercial bank makes a loan. Vault cash or the green pieces of paper represents 1% of all the money.

              So every month when payments on debts are made the banks shrink the liabilities side of their balance sheet. Money is destroyed as it is paid back.

              Now the fact that everyone paid an interest payment on their debt means the supply of dollars shrank by more than the actual principal debt amount.

              Our entire way of life depends on more new dollars being created via loans for there to be enough dollars to service the debt plus interest. Money supply has to expand via bank credit. Endless and expanding bank credit.

              Bank credit will not be expanding if there is no expanding net energy to feed credit growth.

              Endless contraction is a good way to view it.

              No amount of government fiscal stimulus will make net energy grow. No amount of monetary stimulus by central banks will make net energy grow.

              Government spending will actually accelerate the contraction. Putting more demand on a shrinking energy supply. The more they spend the worse the outcome.

        2. America’s debt is mostly the result of the Bush and Trump tax cuts.

          1. Which really means the wealthy lend money to the goverment instead of paying taxes. Anything over 5 million dollars a year should be tax at 90 percent. End the oligarchy purchace of the government.

      2. People always want to know why the US stock market only goes up and to the right on a chart with every pullback being an opportunity to buy more. Hint, it’s not the FED.

        It’s a two part answer. First are the passive inflows of retirement funds. These are set up to buy robotically. There is no market analysis done. The funds hit the accounts and the algorithms buy. People have to remain employed or else they will eventually have to use their retirement funds.

        Two. The companies themselves have borrowed something like $25 trillion over the past 15 years or so to buy their own stock shares back.

        What happens when the banks decide not to rollover all these corporate loans? I’m not saying that is going to happen this year or next. But it’s definitely going to happen.

        Again due to a lack of expanding energy supply. Not because energy supply is falling off a cliff. But because it just isn’t expanding.

        Our entire way of life is based on borrowed money. As the money disappears so does our way of life.

        Oil will be at $25. And the average person will be unemployed, hungry and poor. I don’t buy into the idea that prices go up and stay up and allowing our way of living to continue for a little while longer.

    2. The dollar market outside the US is something like 4-5 times as large as the dollar market inside the US. Yes there is an enormous amount of dollar denominated debt that resides on the balance sheets of banks that are outside the US. They issued the debt in dollars. Not US banks. So any default would hurt the banks that issued the debt.

      Most people think moving away from the dollar hurts the US. It hurts the US the least out of every single country.

  15. 90 years ago we had Roosevelts New Deal which paved the path to economic expansion of a strong middle class and growing opportunities for America.

    Now we have Trumps Raw Deal.
    Its a milestone real world acknowledgement that the opportunities for the average American are in the early stage of contraction, the debt load/entitlement expansion can no longer be serviced indefinitely. There will no longer be government attempts to reign in the gap between the oligarch class and everyone else. Fed government commitments for social spending and international order are going to be reigned in.
    Expect much less from and for your country.

    People in other countries take heed.

    1. 90 years ago there was still plenty of room to ramp up oil and gas production. So many on this blog want to play the blame game.

      It was never government policy that made America great. It was vast untapped energy resources.

      1. Not just energy but raw materials of every type, forests, wood, metals, navigable rivers and vast swaths of fertile soil. It didn’t hurt that the timing was perfect too. Rhe European culture that sent millions of immigrants here was incredibly rapacious and with a never-before understanding of science and burgeoning technology the supremacy of the US was almost inevitable.
        …and yes, white American culture has become pretty fat dumb and lazy. Our leader really does represent us.

        1. To quote Dean Vernon Vermer, from memory, “Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life”
          But the early US was certainly blessed with lots and lots of resources, never mind the locals.

          1. The Roosevelt administration probably didn’t do much to unwind the Great Depression but there is plenty of evidence that it was a major factor in enabling working Americans to get a larger share of the wealth being created by the economy. Enabling unions, creating redistributive taxes, creating Social Security made the US a better, more fair society.
            Going back to the Gilded Age is fundamental to the Trump administration.

      2. HHH

        You make some highly pertinent comments with respect to economic and energy matters. Keep up the good work.
        Sadly many on this blog do not or cannot follow your musings.

    2. Hi

      I can not avoid to bring up the work of T.Piketty (the book “Capital) in this context, since it relied on historical data. What I got out of it, was that the level of prosperity and equality after WW2 was a product of both energy expansion as well as the trauma and motivation from the hopelessness of a war situation. Mind you, the marginal income tax above a certain level (rich people) in the UK was above 90% at some point during the war according to T.P. There is a lot of historical data referencing the 1800s in France, where a small proportion of the population made a living on rent from buying land. It was seen as so unfair, that it was part of the reason for the revolution. But even after that, a small proportion of the french and british elite at the time lived on rent income with very stable currencies at the time for a lot of years.

      The normal condition is inequality unfortuately. Unless traumatising events occurs (a kick up you know where), or energy based expansion is on the table. Of course government policy matters, capitalism is great just in a growing context.

      1. All the ism’s require growth. Those that blame capitalism don’t get the all the other alternatives require growth. None of the alternatives to capitalism are going to succeed where capitalism didn’t.

        The monetary system works the same regardless of whatever ism we are under.

        1. Capitalism seems to be the best system to turn the resources of the planet into useable stuff for humans. It is also pathological in that it works to concentrate wealth enabling more investment and at the same time, demanding exploitation of workers and the natural world.
          So far it seems the only ways to prevent the worst possible inequality is government intervention or civil war.
          Finding balance between creating useful stuff and wide spread damage is not a trivial exercise. I read a lot of history and haven’t found that balance to be very enduring except between the end of WW2 and the recent past and only in those countries that allied with the US after WW2.
          It looks pretty fragile right now.

          1. The Nordics had a pretty good run in the 70-80s when I grew up, a fairly balanced combination of socialism and capitalism. The tax was pretty heavy but you got quite a lot for it, free healthcare, free education (at “college” you had to put in some yourself, or get a low interest government loan, but not much in any case), very generous sick and parental leave etc.
            But I´m afraid that time is just a distant memory now…

          2. It is also pathological in that it works to concentrate wealth enabling more investment and at the same time, demanding exploitation of workers and the natural world.

            But is there a system that’s better in that regard?

            It seems to me that a *very* carefully regulated free market and capitalist system works pretty well. Decentralized production and market distribution is pretty good – Adam Smith commented that the captains of industry tend to want to destroy the free markets that made them wealthy: the key question is how to protect open, decentralized government power, i.e, democracy.

            How do we protect democracy from oligarchs??

    1. Not familiar with Garrett’s work. But will check it out when I get a little time.

      1. From the link I sent

        I have shown in peer-reviewed studies published in Climatic Change, Earth System Dynamics, and Earth’s Future that this simple hypothesis appears to hold true. The observed relationship between the current rate of energy consumption or power of civilization, and its total economic wealth (and not GDP), is a fixed constant of 7.1 ± 0.1 milliwatts per inflation-adjusted 2005 dollar. Equivalently, every 2005 dollar requires 324 kiloJoules be consumed over a year to sustain its value. The log-linear plot below shows wealth in blue, energy consumption rates in red, and the value of the constant in green. In 2010, the global energy consumption rate of about 17 TW sustained about 2352 trillion 2005 dollars of global wealth. In 1970, both numbers were about half this. Both quantities have increased slowly from 1.4% per year to 2.2% per year averaging a growth rate of 1.90% /year.

        Historical studies suggest that any long-term decline in a society’s capacity to consume forebodes hyper-inflation, war, and population decline. The question for us should not be whether collapse will happen, but when, and whether it will be slow or sudden. Here, I believe that applications of physics take forecasts of our future away from fairy-land fantasies of “expert opinion” and into the realm of robust hypotheses that are physically constrained and can be as rigorously tested as forecasts of the weather or climate.

        Basically money is a hold on energy at a very high level.

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