“Kathleen Sgamma, an oil and gas lobbyist, withdrew from consideration to lead the Bureau of Land Management. A few days ago, a letter she sent oil gas executives criticizing Trump for his role in the Jan. 6 insurrection surfaced online.”
S&P Global Market Intelligence reported that from January through the end of March, there were 188 bankruptcies filed among large U.S. companies, an increase from 139 bankruptcy filings in the first quarter of 2024, which was a 14-year high at the time.
The 188 bankruptcies in the last three months are the most in the first quarter since 2010, when there were 254 bankruptcy filings as the economy reeled in the wake of the financial crisis.
– Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said recent market trends show investors are moving away from the U.S. as the safest place to invest.
– Treasury yields are rising while the U.S. dollar has sagged against its global counterparts.
-The central bank official said that is counter to what one might normally expect.
Central bankers don’t know anything about the dollar. Again US asset are being sold to acquire dollars. Dollars that the Eurodollar banks just aren’t providing.
Because the actual monetary system which isn’t under the control of any central bank nor government is starting to lock up.
A little thought experiment. What happens when all the assets are sold. The rainy day fund is sold. And not only are banks not lending but you have no assets to sell. And still need a massive amount of funding in dollars?
You have no way to acquire dollars but you have to have them. Or else you default.
Because Trump has shown that he will listen to the bond market, the thinking goes, he has lost negotiating leverage — especially since he is seeking allies to team up against China. That means other trading partners can demand things from the U.S., and not, as the White House wants, the other way around.
“Because Trump has shown that he will listen to the bond market, the thinking goes, he has lost negotiating leverage — especially since he is seeking allies to team up against China.”
Good point. The man is a bizarre combination of a bully and a fool.
A damning reflection on those who voted for him.
“A damning reflection on those who voted for him.”
That leads into questions of income and wealth distribution, media responsibilities and agency.
In a way the incredible range of choices offered by the internet with respect to where we get our news is both a pro and a con. We all have a choice between reading – for example – this blog or alternatively Fox/OAN etc. So where does the responsibility for how (well) one is informed really lie? Is it the news source that is responsible or the person reading the news? And how does that tie into education, upbringing and values of the society one lives in?
Rgds
WP
Its a good question WP.
There is no responsibility claimed or taken for the general failure. Not by the individual, the family, the church, the media, company or the state.
Humans are going to even more helpless against the influence exerted by the media, the state, the church, the corporation as more AI tools are brought to bear, then they already are.
We already live in a purchased ‘democracy’. We sell our attention and allegiance
on a whim and for cheap.
I listen to MSNBC as a radio stream in the background (no reason to ever watch it) and only slowly is it emerging that pundits are treating the whole thing as a farce. What has happened in the past is too much naval gazing in terms of critically accessing Trump’s motivations as being rationale — as if he’s clever at business.
What is always brought up is how can someone bankrupt a casino? Gambling as a business is a statistical generator for printing money — they can even ban people such as card-counters that can get close to even. Apparently, Trump’s casino businesses filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy multiple times (1991, 2004, 2009, and 2014).
Perhaps I’m missing something, but this does not seem complicated for the US.
If you voted, you are responsible for that vote and share a measure of responsibility for how your elected candidate acts. The majority of residents in the US have many opportunities to inform themselves if they choose to do so.
If you didn’t vote but you were eligible and otherwise able to exercise this right then you are certainly responsible for that failure to act.
Many republican electeds and their voters are responsible for their successful efforts to disenfranchise certain voters.
Outlets like Fox/OAN that either are or lean towards pure propaganda machines are certainly responsible for their actions as well.
Sure, but in the context of “I love the uneducated” to what degree have individuals responsibility for their crappy decisions when society decided to not provide them with a toolkit that allows them to make logical decisions?
‘…to what degree have individuals responsibility for their crappy decisions…’
Pretty close to 100% in the US.
Exceptions? Yes. Underlying medical limitations due to genetics, environment or similar. Some cases of explicit or implicit coercion.
The toolkit is generally available to almost all in the US.
Roughly 90% of adults in the US have a smart phone with associated access to a range of news and other information sources without the types of extreme controls authoritarian regimes have managed elsewhere and in the past.
Most of these people have some daily or at least weekly free time that could be used to inform themselves, although there are certainly exceptions for folks who are nearly 24 7 365 to make it.
Free public education k-12. Yes, there is a dramatic range of quality. However, a lack of the quality education required to get into MIT and become a world class physicist doesn’t mean that you can’t develop basic literacy and numeracy skills and then use them.
Your family, friends, community, school, employer, government, house of worship, etc may attempt to force you not to think or how to think. If you’re a 10 year old you get a pass. Not so much if you’re 20.
Unfortunately, some of this is actively changing now. The current administration is actively working to eliminate access to accurate information and to re-write history, science and reality. This is also actively underway at state government levels and local school boards. This certainly makes it more challenging.
A good question,
Some individuals that manage to stay focused on certain topics by locking out the noice provided by too many news outlets with differing motivations, are valuable. They are at risk of being overridden and ridiculed by the “common” prevailing understanding. Internet was supposed to up the era of enlightenment. Some brighter than me warned a few decades ago that it is just too tempting to spread misinformation or better put agenda aligned information out there promoted in a big way. They proved to be right. The scientist work method; by tradition to carefully evaluate sources – is as a result spreading to many more business areas and occupations now compared to how it used to be some time ago.
I’ve been thinking about this for a long time, and my best answer is that everyone is responsible. And, from a certain point of view, everyone is actually doing the best they can. It doesn’t really help to blame people.
The key, really, is to understand how and why humans behave. We (both as a society and as individuals) need to develop a better understanding of psychology, sociology, history, economics, political science, etc.
For instance, we need a better understanding of how democracy changes, and how oligarchy gains power. Knowledge is power. And, for the average person, good books are very helpful to benefit from the understanding that we as a society have developed so far.
Read!
————————————
One good book I read recently:
Defy: The Power of No in a World That Demands Yes
Kindle Edition
by Sunita Sah (Author) Format: Kindle Edition
NATIONAL BESTSELLER • Axiom Business Book Award Gold Medalist • A Next Big Idea Club Must-Read • A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Month
“Dr. Sunita Sah brilliantly reframes our understanding of defiance—from an act of mere rebellion to a vital tool for personal growth and social change.”—Daniel H. Pink, #1 New York Times bestselling author of The Power of Regret
“A powerful book. If you’ve ever compromised your principles to please others, Defy will give you the will—and skill—to stand up for yourself.”—Adam Grant, #1 New York Times bestselling author of Think Again
The definitive book on defiance, a clear-eyed dissection of the forces that silence us, featuring groundbreaking research and legendary stories alongside everyday examples and strategies for how to unleash the power of a “True No.”
Consumer sentiment plunged 11% this month to a preliminary reading of 50.8, the University of Michigan said in its latest survey released Friday, the second-lowest reading on records going back to 1952. April’s reading was lower than anything seen during the Great Recession.
GREENHOUSE GAS CONCENTRATIONS SURGE AGAIN TO NEW RECORD IN 2023
“Greenhouse gas levels surged to a new record in 2023, committing the planet to rising temperatures for many years to come, according to a report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Carbon dioxide (CO2) is accumulating in the atmosphere faster than any time experienced during human existence, rising by more than 10% in just two decades.”
PLANET-WARMING GAS LEVELS ROSE MORE THAN EVER IN 2024
Levels of the most significant planet-warming gas in our atmosphere rose more quickly than ever previously recorded last year, scientists say, leaving a key global climate target hanging by a thread. Concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) are now more than 50% higher than before humans started burning large amounts of fossil fuels. Last year, fossil fuel emissions were at record highs, while the natural world struggled to absorb as much CO2 due to factors including wildfires and drought, so more accumulated in the atmosphere.
“Increasingly autonomous AI programs could end up manipulating markets and intentionally creating crises in order to boost profits for banks and traders, the Bank of England has warned.”
Kind of like Trump did this week for his family and minions.
If you look at the interest rate swaps spreads. They have never been this negative. Every time something happens bad within the monetary system the interest rate swaps show it.
2008 is obvious. But smaller hiccups register too. Like. The mini bank blowup we had a year or so ago and when the UK’s bond market had its melt down.
Anyway everyone can clearly see all the selling in the treasury market. Yes some of that is the hedge funds so called basis trade blowing up. But some of it is most definitely foreign selling to acquire dollars.
So you have two things conflicting here. Swap spreads are clearly signaling a deflationary outcome is coming. That interest rates are not only going lower. Much lower, but also that they will be staying much lower.
During the COVID crisis. Treasury yields initially rose like they are now only to collapse later when the stampede of buying came taking yield to a half of a percentage point.
The dollar also fell initially only to come roaring back.
Assets are being sold to get dollars right now. Just know that in the Eurodollar market. All the debt, all money is short term debt that doesn’t have a maturity of over 3 months.
So the entire monetary system depends on this debt to be rolled over completely within 3 months. We are talking somewhere north of $75 trillion dollars have to be created every 3 months to keep debts rolling over and the dollar supply constant.
Some estimates I’ve seen have this number pegged at $125 trillion. When these banks become risk averse. And decide not to lend. Well there just isn’t enough dollars to go around.
Then shit really really starts breaking. And the dollar spikes.
Even if the FED’s bank reserves were actual liquidity. Or actually cash money. The FED is simply dwarfed by the Eurodollar market.
7-8 trillion of bank reserves on the FED’s balance sheet is a far cry from the $75 to $125 trillion of actual dollars in the Eurodollar market.
I keep trying to hammer this home. Because in reality it doesn’t matter if the FED has your back and is willing to do QE at a moments notice.
Gold and bitcoin are both just assets. If you want to use gold or bitcoin to pay debts you have to sell them first to get dollars. If you’re swapping gold or bitcoin or goods and services within an economy you’re not using currency to pay so there is no debt. If you borrowed in gold or bitcoin and had to repay in gold or bitcoins it would be a huge problem repaying more gold or bitcoin than you borrowed in the first place because of the interest expense.
Both gold and bitcoin are purchased through currency creation or debt. As the dollar supply shrinks so will the price gold and bitcoin. Which will decrease their purchasing power.
Better make sure you have an expanding energy supply that will allow your commercial banks to continue making loans or else you’re screwed. No amount of gold or bitcoin will save you.
Do you have reference sources for your estimates of $75T-$125T of debt and it’s less than 3 month maturity in the Eurodollar market.
Second question. Various media reports cite a range of experts noting a range of suggested explanations for selling in the treasury market. Liquidity needs, unwinding basis trade and a loss of faith in the US among the most common reported. However, these all seem to be a matter of speculation and it also seems that there is little more than anecdotal data to support each expert’s suggested driver. True or false?
Hedge funds are in fact having to unwind a leveraged bet on T-bills. We are staring at a liquidity crisis. China, Japan and Europe are selling dollar denominated assets. Not because they don’t like Trumps policies.
They all own a bunch of treasury debt that is losing nominal value as the hedge funds are forced to exit their positions pushing yields higher. The value of collateral is falling so it takes more collateral to borrow in REPO than it did a few days ago. Not only that but dollars are becoming scarce because banks don’t want to lend them as tariffs between China and the US have moved to 145% and 125%.
So overnight the price of things imported from China besides the items that were excluded are 2 and a half times what they were a few days ago. Something that cost $1 is now $2.45 That dog doesn’t hunt for US consumers. Chinese manufacturers will be shutting down production because they can’t replace the American consumers elsewhere.
Not only that but the pause with the rest of the world is 90 days. If there isn’t the agreement Trump wants he has no choice but to follow through.
I’m looking at the 30 year interest rate swap spreads. What they are projecting is interest rates are going lower. Much lower and they are going to stay much lower.
This isn’t going to be inflationary as many people are projecting.
TRUMP WANTS TO HALT CLIMATE RESEARCH BY KEY AGENCY
The Trump administration, pursuing its deeply skeptical approach to climate change, wants to severely cut back the research arm of a government agency that plays a pivotal role in global climate science, US media reported Friday. The administration plans to ask Congress, which sets the budgets for federal agencies, to cut funding for research labs and offices overseeing climate studies in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), according to an internal White House document consulted by CNN and the journal Science.
Climate Science is just one example anti-Christian activism in the Government and University system, as they see it-
‘The Trump administration has ordered State Department employees to report on any instances of coworkers displaying “anti-Christian bias” as part of its effort to implement a sweeping new executive order on supporting employees of Christian faith working in the federal government.
…an administration-wide task force to collect information “involving anti-religious bias during the last presidential administration” and will collect examples of anti-Christian bias through anonymous employee report forms.’
Are you still allowed to disagree with the position, political or otherwise, of someone in an organization or department who is wearing a cross?
DAILY CO2
A reminder that our world is pushing the planet’s thermostat beyond safe levels of 350 ppm CO2, and that more people are needed to combine our ingenuity and resources to keep the present overshoot brief.
Apr. 11, 2025 = 430.24 ppm
Apr. 11, 2024 = 425.41 ppm
1 Year Change = 4.83 ppm (1.14%)
the latest news from US custom is:
The 145% tarriff on China imports are exempt on: all computers, smart phones and IT products, including lots of consumer home appliances. Only LED lights are not on this exempt list. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMvcl6Iowi8
Good advice:
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:okjm23cjbb5bufavzixhwvyy/bafkreihxain5rhcxvgxvx34hlt44b6bg4rws3g3gr6ow7z6byzc7metfkm@jpeg
“Kathleen Sgamma, an oil and gas lobbyist, withdrew from consideration to lead the Bureau of Land Management. A few days ago, a letter she sent oil gas executives criticizing Trump for his role in the Jan. 6 insurrection surfaced online.”
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/10042025/kathleen-sgamma-withdraws-consideration-blm-director-trump/
Crazy in the context of recent events, they call it “self-inflicted”
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-corporate-bankruptcies-rise-highest-q1-level-since-2010
Excerpt:
S&P Global Market Intelligence reported that from January through the end of March, there were 188 bankruptcies filed among large U.S. companies, an increase from 139 bankruptcy filings in the first quarter of 2024, which was a 14-year high at the time.
The 188 bankruptcies in the last three months are the most in the first quarter since 2010, when there were 254 bankruptcy filings as the economy reeled in the wake of the financial crisis.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/11/feds-kashkari-says-rising-bond-yields-falling-dollar-show-investors-are-moving-on-from-the-us.html
Key Points
– Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said recent market trends show investors are moving away from the U.S. as the safest place to invest.
– Treasury yields are rising while the U.S. dollar has sagged against its global counterparts.
-The central bank official said that is counter to what one might normally expect.
Central bankers don’t know anything about the dollar. Again US asset are being sold to acquire dollars. Dollars that the Eurodollar banks just aren’t providing.
Because the actual monetary system which isn’t under the control of any central bank nor government is starting to lock up.
A little thought experiment. What happens when all the assets are sold. The rainy day fund is sold. And not only are banks not lending but you have no assets to sell. And still need a massive amount of funding in dollars?
You have no way to acquire dollars but you have to have them. Or else you default.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/11/business/dealbook/trump-tariffs-trade-assets.html
Excerpt:
Because Trump has shown that he will listen to the bond market, the thinking goes, he has lost negotiating leverage — especially since he is seeking allies to team up against China. That means other trading partners can demand things from the U.S., and not, as the White House wants, the other way around.
“Because Trump has shown that he will listen to the bond market, the thinking goes, he has lost negotiating leverage — especially since he is seeking allies to team up against China.”
Good point. The man is a bizarre combination of a bully and a fool.
A damning reflection on those who voted for him.
“A damning reflection on those who voted for him.”
That leads into questions of income and wealth distribution, media responsibilities and agency.
In a way the incredible range of choices offered by the internet with respect to where we get our news is both a pro and a con. We all have a choice between reading – for example – this blog or alternatively Fox/OAN etc. So where does the responsibility for how (well) one is informed really lie? Is it the news source that is responsible or the person reading the news? And how does that tie into education, upbringing and values of the society one lives in?
Rgds
WP
My recent comments from 4 different new sources (FoxBusiness, CNBC, NYT, and CNN).
Its a good question WP.
There is no responsibility claimed or taken for the general failure. Not by the individual, the family, the church, the media, company or the state.
Humans are going to even more helpless against the influence exerted by the media, the state, the church, the corporation as more AI tools are brought to bear, then they already are.
We already live in a purchased ‘democracy’. We sell our attention and allegiance
on a whim and for cheap.
I listen to MSNBC as a radio stream in the background (no reason to ever watch it) and only slowly is it emerging that pundits are treating the whole thing as a farce. What has happened in the past is too much naval gazing in terms of critically accessing Trump’s motivations as being rationale — as if he’s clever at business.
What is always brought up is how can someone bankrupt a casino? Gambling as a business is a statistical generator for printing money — they can even ban people such as card-counters that can get close to even. Apparently, Trump’s casino businesses filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy multiple times (1991, 2004, 2009, and 2014).
Perhaps I’m missing something, but this does not seem complicated for the US.
If you voted, you are responsible for that vote and share a measure of responsibility for how your elected candidate acts. The majority of residents in the US have many opportunities to inform themselves if they choose to do so.
If you didn’t vote but you were eligible and otherwise able to exercise this right then you are certainly responsible for that failure to act.
Many republican electeds and their voters are responsible for their successful efforts to disenfranchise certain voters.
Outlets like Fox/OAN that either are or lean towards pure propaganda machines are certainly responsible for their actions as well.
Sure, but in the context of “I love the uneducated” to what degree have individuals responsibility for their crappy decisions when society decided to not provide them with a toolkit that allows them to make logical decisions?
‘…to what degree have individuals responsibility for their crappy decisions…’
Pretty close to 100% in the US.
Exceptions? Yes. Underlying medical limitations due to genetics, environment or similar. Some cases of explicit or implicit coercion.
The toolkit is generally available to almost all in the US.
Roughly 90% of adults in the US have a smart phone with associated access to a range of news and other information sources without the types of extreme controls authoritarian regimes have managed elsewhere and in the past.
Most of these people have some daily or at least weekly free time that could be used to inform themselves, although there are certainly exceptions for folks who are nearly 24 7 365 to make it.
Free public education k-12. Yes, there is a dramatic range of quality. However, a lack of the quality education required to get into MIT and become a world class physicist doesn’t mean that you can’t develop basic literacy and numeracy skills and then use them.
Your family, friends, community, school, employer, government, house of worship, etc may attempt to force you not to think or how to think. If you’re a 10 year old you get a pass. Not so much if you’re 20.
Unfortunately, some of this is actively changing now. The current administration is actively working to eliminate access to accurate information and to re-write history, science and reality. This is also actively underway at state government levels and local school boards. This certainly makes it more challenging.
A good question,
Some individuals that manage to stay focused on certain topics by locking out the noice provided by too many news outlets with differing motivations, are valuable. They are at risk of being overridden and ridiculed by the “common” prevailing understanding. Internet was supposed to up the era of enlightenment. Some brighter than me warned a few decades ago that it is just too tempting to spread misinformation or better put agenda aligned information out there promoted in a big way. They proved to be right. The scientist work method; by tradition to carefully evaluate sources – is as a result spreading to many more business areas and occupations now compared to how it used to be some time ago.
WP,
I’ve been thinking about this for a long time, and my best answer is that everyone is responsible. And, from a certain point of view, everyone is actually doing the best they can. It doesn’t really help to blame people.
The key, really, is to understand how and why humans behave. We (both as a society and as individuals) need to develop a better understanding of psychology, sociology, history, economics, political science, etc.
For instance, we need a better understanding of how democracy changes, and how oligarchy gains power. Knowledge is power. And, for the average person, good books are very helpful to benefit from the understanding that we as a society have developed so far.
Read!
————————————
One good book I read recently:
Defy: The Power of No in a World That Demands Yes
Kindle Edition
by Sunita Sah (Author) Format: Kindle Edition
NATIONAL BESTSELLER • Axiom Business Book Award Gold Medalist • A Next Big Idea Club Must-Read • A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Month
“Dr. Sunita Sah brilliantly reframes our understanding of defiance—from an act of mere rebellion to a vital tool for personal growth and social change.”—Daniel H. Pink, #1 New York Times bestselling author of The Power of Regret
“A powerful book. If you’ve ever compromised your principles to please others, Defy will give you the will—and skill—to stand up for yourself.”—Adam Grant, #1 New York Times bestselling author of Think Again
The definitive book on defiance, a clear-eyed dissection of the forces that silence us, featuring groundbreaking research and legendary stories alongside everyday examples and strategies for how to unleash the power of a “True No.”
“Good point. The man is a bizarre combination of a bully and a fool.”
Agreed.
Narcissists have very fragile egos. They can’t handle criticism. They will try to destroy the person that is doing that.
They completely lack empathy (that module of the brain is missing).
Look at how some countries try to deal with him:
1) They massage his EGO
2) Tell him he is responsible for the great result
3) etc etc
It is right out of the “How to deal with a Narcissist Playbook”…
Have you ever seen Trump express genuine empathy? even towards his family?
He sees his kids as marketing pawns!! That is why he doesn’t like Tiffany!
He sees Gaza as an opportunity to build a beach resort!!!
He hates dogs!
That’s damning all by itself…
woof! woof! 🙁
https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/11/economy/us-consumer-sentiment-april/index.html
Consumer sentiment plunged 11% this month to a preliminary reading of 50.8, the University of Michigan said in its latest survey released Friday, the second-lowest reading on records going back to 1952. April’s reading was lower than anything seen during the Great Recession.
Chart below from link above.
Not good!
GREENHOUSE GAS CONCENTRATIONS SURGE AGAIN TO NEW RECORD IN 2023
“Greenhouse gas levels surged to a new record in 2023, committing the planet to rising temperatures for many years to come, according to a report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Carbon dioxide (CO2) is accumulating in the atmosphere faster than any time experienced during human existence, rising by more than 10% in just two decades.”
https://wmo.int/media/news/greenhouse-gas-concentrations-surge-again-new-record-2023
And,
PLANET-WARMING GAS LEVELS ROSE MORE THAN EVER IN 2024
Levels of the most significant planet-warming gas in our atmosphere rose more quickly than ever previously recorded last year, scientists say, leaving a key global climate target hanging by a thread. Concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) are now more than 50% higher than before humans started burning large amounts of fossil fuels. Last year, fossil fuel emissions were at record highs, while the natural world struggled to absorb as much CO2 due to factors including wildfires and drought, so more accumulated in the atmosphere.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c30dn5dn53jo
“Increasingly autonomous AI programs could end up manipulating markets and intentionally creating crises in order to boost profits for banks and traders, the Bank of England has warned.”
Kind of like Trump did this week for his family and minions.
Trump is actually an evil bot
If you look at the interest rate swaps spreads. They have never been this negative. Every time something happens bad within the monetary system the interest rate swaps show it.
2008 is obvious. But smaller hiccups register too. Like. The mini bank blowup we had a year or so ago and when the UK’s bond market had its melt down.
Anyway everyone can clearly see all the selling in the treasury market. Yes some of that is the hedge funds so called basis trade blowing up. But some of it is most definitely foreign selling to acquire dollars.
So you have two things conflicting here. Swap spreads are clearly signaling a deflationary outcome is coming. That interest rates are not only going lower. Much lower, but also that they will be staying much lower.
During the COVID crisis. Treasury yields initially rose like they are now only to collapse later when the stampede of buying came taking yield to a half of a percentage point.
The dollar also fell initially only to come roaring back.
Assets are being sold to get dollars right now. Just know that in the Eurodollar market. All the debt, all money is short term debt that doesn’t have a maturity of over 3 months.
So the entire monetary system depends on this debt to be rolled over completely within 3 months. We are talking somewhere north of $75 trillion dollars have to be created every 3 months to keep debts rolling over and the dollar supply constant.
Some estimates I’ve seen have this number pegged at $125 trillion. When these banks become risk averse. And decide not to lend. Well there just isn’t enough dollars to go around.
Then shit really really starts breaking. And the dollar spikes.
Even if the FED’s bank reserves were actual liquidity. Or actually cash money. The FED is simply dwarfed by the Eurodollar market.
7-8 trillion of bank reserves on the FED’s balance sheet is a far cry from the $75 to $125 trillion of actual dollars in the Eurodollar market.
I keep trying to hammer this home. Because in reality it doesn’t matter if the FED has your back and is willing to do QE at a moments notice.
Gold and bitcoin are both just assets. If you want to use gold or bitcoin to pay debts you have to sell them first to get dollars. If you’re swapping gold or bitcoin or goods and services within an economy you’re not using currency to pay so there is no debt. If you borrowed in gold or bitcoin and had to repay in gold or bitcoins it would be a huge problem repaying more gold or bitcoin than you borrowed in the first place because of the interest expense.
Both gold and bitcoin are purchased through currency creation or debt. As the dollar supply shrinks so will the price gold and bitcoin. Which will decrease their purchasing power.
Better make sure you have an expanding energy supply that will allow your commercial banks to continue making loans or else you’re screwed. No amount of gold or bitcoin will save you.
HHH
Do you have reference sources for your estimates of $75T-$125T of debt and it’s less than 3 month maturity in the Eurodollar market.
Second question. Various media reports cite a range of experts noting a range of suggested explanations for selling in the treasury market. Liquidity needs, unwinding basis trade and a loss of faith in the US among the most common reported. However, these all seem to be a matter of speculation and it also seems that there is little more than anecdotal data to support each expert’s suggested driver. True or false?
Hedge funds are in fact having to unwind a leveraged bet on T-bills. We are staring at a liquidity crisis. China, Japan and Europe are selling dollar denominated assets. Not because they don’t like Trumps policies.
They all own a bunch of treasury debt that is losing nominal value as the hedge funds are forced to exit their positions pushing yields higher. The value of collateral is falling so it takes more collateral to borrow in REPO than it did a few days ago. Not only that but dollars are becoming scarce because banks don’t want to lend them as tariffs between China and the US have moved to 145% and 125%.
So overnight the price of things imported from China besides the items that were excluded are 2 and a half times what they were a few days ago. Something that cost $1 is now $2.45 That dog doesn’t hunt for US consumers. Chinese manufacturers will be shutting down production because they can’t replace the American consumers elsewhere.
Not only that but the pause with the rest of the world is 90 days. If there isn’t the agreement Trump wants he has no choice but to follow through.
I’m looking at the 30 year interest rate swap spreads. What they are projecting is interest rates are going lower. Much lower and they are going to stay much lower.
This isn’t going to be inflationary as many people are projecting.
Future demand is going to plummet.
TRUMP WANTS TO HALT CLIMATE RESEARCH BY KEY AGENCY
The Trump administration, pursuing its deeply skeptical approach to climate change, wants to severely cut back the research arm of a government agency that plays a pivotal role in global climate science, US media reported Friday. The administration plans to ask Congress, which sets the budgets for federal agencies, to cut funding for research labs and offices overseeing climate studies in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), according to an internal White House document consulted by CNN and the journal Science.
https://phys.org/news/2025-04-trump-halt-climate-key-agency.html
Climate Science is just one example anti-Christian activism in the Government and University system, as they see it-
‘The Trump administration has ordered State Department employees to report on any instances of coworkers displaying “anti-Christian bias” as part of its effort to implement a sweeping new executive order on supporting employees of Christian faith working in the federal government.
…an administration-wide task force to collect information “involving anti-religious bias during the last presidential administration” and will collect examples of anti-Christian bias through anonymous employee report forms.’
Are you still allowed to disagree with the position, political or otherwise, of someone in an organization or department who is wearing a cross?
This is a big issue. Do you have a reference for this? I’d like to dig into it.
Here:
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/11/state-report-anti-christian-bias-033535
DAILY CO2
A reminder that our world is pushing the planet’s thermostat beyond safe levels of 350 ppm CO2, and that more people are needed to combine our ingenuity and resources to keep the present overshoot brief.
Apr. 11, 2025 = 430.24 ppm
Apr. 11, 2024 = 425.41 ppm
1 Year Change = 4.83 ppm (1.14%)
1961: Yuri Gagarin becomes first human in space
Yes, sir.
I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones. – Albert Einstein –
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/article-14602359/tump-tariff-U-turn-exempt-iphone-laptops-china.html
Some contend that what got Trump to back off some of his tariffs was the 10 – year bond.
I argue that it was the fear of reprisals if China cut off Iphone production or inhibited it in some way.
If you want to see rioting in the streets, take away peoples smart devices!!!!!
The average citizen does not understand bond yields, and Trump (who only cares about himself ) would be the main target.
the latest news from US custom is:
The 145% tarriff on China imports are exempt on: all computers, smart phones and IT products, including lots of consumer home appliances. Only LED lights are not on this exempt list.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMvcl6Iowi8