98 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum”

  1. Islandboy may have posted this, or something close, a few days back, but just in case………

    https://electrek.co/2022/07/07/wind-and-solar-produce-more-electricity-than-nuclear-for-the-first-time-in-the-us/

    What I’m wondering is this:

    Will we see wind and solar power getting to be cheap enough, and fossil fuel power expensive enough, in relative terms, for wind and solar to be no brainers even for hard core right winger types.

    If so, how long will it be?

    So far the political opposition to renewables has been able to make a lot of hay out of the fact that electricity prices have been going up in places with lots of wind and solar power infrastructure.
    Of course electricity prices would likely have gone up EVEN MORE, or at about the same rate in any case, but right wing voters don’t spend much time on thinking things thru, especially if doing so requires five or ten minutes serious thought looking into the numbers.

    But at some point, a trumpster who needs gas to heat his home will HOPEFULLY finally come to understand that every kilowatt hour generated by wind and sun means cheaper gas for his furnace, water heater, and kitchen range.

    When talking to my mostly very poorly educated rural neighbors, I have found that the best way to get them to open their eyes and take a good look at electric cars, etc, is to point out that even if they never own one……… each one sold means more and somewhat cheaper gasoline, for them.

    Plus they’re generally WELL aware of inflation, and the way the prices of just about everything will continue to go up, as they have been going up, their entire lives….. so that there’s a great opening to get them to talking about ten dollar gasoline……. twenty five or thirty cent per kilowatt hour electricity……. and thinking about whether they REALLY should be thinking about buying some solar panels of their own, and thinking about supporting the wind and solar power industries, politically.

    Here and there one of them GETS IT. It’s even possible I’ve converted a couple into Democrats, lol.

    I’m wondering how far down the road that day may be.

    All opinions welcome!

    1. “Will we see wind and solar power getting to be cheap enough, and fossil fuel power expensive enough, in relative terms, for wind and solar to be no brainers even for hard core right winger types.
      If so, how long will it be?”

      In many places we are already there, except that most individuals haven’t looked at the numbers with clear eyes.
      The installations that the utilities are engaged in says it all- the big majority of new generating capacity is solar or wind, simply on economic grounds.
      For example in this year new electrical generation in the US is projected to be 52% solar, 23% nat gas, 18% wind and the residual battery/nuc.

      But for the cost advantage to be true you’ve got to putting solar in sunny areas and wind in windy areas.
      I don’t know when the average Joe will see it. Its hard to sort through all the information put out by vested interests.

      1. But………..

        COAL USE RISING GLOBALLY

        The EU has gotten the go-ahead from Brussels to increase coal use over the next 10 years in the energy transition away from Russia. The European Commission has stated that 5% more coal than before would be used, but the short-term use will likely be higher in the immediate transition.

        While Europe remains committed to its net-zero emissions goals for 2050 by increasing nuclear power reliance and ramping up renewable energy, it has been an unexpected blow to the European energy grids and their previous reliance on Russian natural gas and oil.

        At the same time, China has doubled down on its use of low-cost coal to help boost its economy and tide the storm of rolling power shortages and blackouts, to the detriment of its air quality and likely crop yield. Because the coal that is being utilized by China to help prop up its energy grid is low-cost, it is low quality and burns faster, meaning that power generators require more and more as output demand increases. China generally derives 60% of its power from coal each year.

        https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/we-have-no-choice:-coal-use-rising-globally

    2. As Hickory said, in many places we are already there. The problem is that again as Hickory alluded to, the calculation is based on the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) which takes into account all the costs to finance, build and operate a given plant over the lifetime of the plant. Renewables, with zero fuel costs are winning hands down in the utility segment where the bean counters are looking at the longer view.

      The problem for residential and commercial/industrial consumers is that, in the case of solar, you are paying for 25 years of electricity up front. This means that financing has to be sorted out and that can make it look expensive. Tony Seba’s take is that by 2030 the costs will have come down sufficiently for most consumers to have made the decision. Seba says the inflection point will be when the levelized cost of solar plus batteries (renewables plus storage) falls below the cost of transmission (the cost delivering the electricity from a central facility to individual consumers).

      1. “The problem for residential and commercial/industrial consumers is that, in the case of solar, you are paying for 25 years of electricity up front.”
        Very true, and even if the 25 year deal looks incredibly cheap- you’ve still got to come up with the cash or credit now.

      2. For those of you who have worked in construction or related fields, installing your own PV system is a great option. It often cuts the installed cost in half so the economics get pretty irresistible. A basic skill set, hand tools, ladders, safety gear, a friend or two and you are good to go. I did my own system, then helped a half dozen friends and it’s actually a lot of fun. I use a couple of suppliers who specialize in DIY kits. All the engineering and electrical diagrams are supplied. You may need a licensed electrician for the final hookup and, of course, need to pull all required permits.

    3. An additional response to your posting OFM-
      What I am hoping to comes to pass is a time when we have a mechanism for individuals, or communities, to invest in solar utility scale production, with the purchase of shares based on actual physical producing facilities.
      Kind of like US savings bonds.
      Ownership of production, even if you don’t have a good permanent roof or more than $1000 bucks to invest,
      would be good for everyone.
      US Solar Bond. Sign me up.

    4. Well—
      “—nature will merely shrug and conclude that letting apes run the laboratory was fun for a while but in the end a bad idea.”

    5. “Will we see wind and solar power getting to be cheap enough, and fossil fuel power expensive enough, in relative terms, for wind and solar to be no brainers even for hard core right winger types.” ~ OFM

      I feel your premise is flawed; Patriot Front show no opposition to electric vehicles or renewables, and if the price is cheaper they’d likely rent an electric van to get their numbers in position to fight LGBTQ citizens.

      It seems to me that some of the ‘renewables’ types are quite keen on being hardcore right wing. It likely correlates with wealth. Perhaps the influence of a ‘renewables’ billionaire in the GOP will remove the topic of ‘renewables’ from the list of talking points used by the Repugs in their social change issues based culture war. Perhaps Musk will take a shot at the Republican Primary? That would be interesting to see; he’s got the warmth and charm of a dial tone.

      Elon Musk declares himself a Republican as his wealth shrinks by $12 billion
      https://www.latimes.com/business/technology/story/2022-05-18/elon-musk-declares-himself-a-republican-as-his-wealth-shrinks-by-12-billion?_amp=true

      Elon Musk Votes Republican for First Time, Predicts ‘Red Wave’ in November
      https://freebeacon.com/elections/elon-musk-votes-republican-for-first-time-predicts-red-wave-in-november/amp/

      Red voters for green energy? Conservatives say they support solar and wind power too
      https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2022/06/10/republicans-solar-energy-deals-elusive/7501341001/?gnt-cfr=1

      1. Republican voters and party have been staunchly against vehicle energy efficiency innovation, solar and wind industries over the past 50 years (just like with most human rights issues).

        This changes when they realize that they can make money from it.
        Pretty simple.

        Same kind of dynamic is at play with most people on all kinds of issues, no matter the political persuasion.

        1. “Republican voters and party have been staunchly against vehicle energy efficiency innovation, solar and wind industries over the past 50 years (just like with most human rights issues).” ~ Hick

          And yet, somehow:
          Red states account for 3 of the top 5 states for clean energy in 2021
          https://www.upworthy.com/amp/red-states-clean-energy-2657350676

          And furthermore;
          Renewable Energy Surges Even In Fossil Fuel Friendly Red States
          https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2020/10/26/renewables-and-energy-storage-are-surging-in-red-states/amp/

          America’s red states lead wind and solar power surge
          https://www.energymonitor.ai/tech/renewables/americas-red-states-lead-wind-and-solar-power-surge

          The ‘Red State Green Energy’ Boom Rolls On
          https://reasonstobecheerful.world/green-energy-conservative-states-wind-solar/

          These Republican states are passing clean energy bills in the name of freedom and economics.
          https://grist.org/politics/secrets-to-passing-climate-legislation-in-red-states-bipartisanship/

          Greenest states in the U.S.
          https://www.consumeraffairs.com/solar-energy/greenest-states-in-us.html

          In case you missed it- It seems “Red States” are already big players. Perhaps things are a little more complex in real life; for if they were as simple as you say, then red states should be lagging on ‘green energy’ development, I would think. Perhaps reality is more nuanced and complex than the culture wars talking points & political dogma?

          I’m up in to be PNW, so when OFM references “hardcore right wing” my mind goes to the Patriot Front and Proud Boy types, not Trumpsters. Perhaps OFM lives in a nicer area than me. Trumpsterism is basically Pizzagate 3.0 (Qtards was Pizzagate 2.0), and January 6 is likely the high water mark for those clowns.

          Elon Musk seems an interesting case study; perhaps more Democrats who get rich ‘saving the planet’ will go GOP.

          3. That discussion of yours Survivalist is surprisingly pathetic for you.
            If you had been paying attention for the past 5 decades you would be aware that the republican voters have put in leaders who have been nothing but obstructionist on wind and solar and vehicle efficiency policies. [and climate change adaptation]

            They are having a slow change of heart as they see personal profit in it.
            I’m done with your lame ass partisan mental meltdown.
            Maybe you can find other takers.

          4. Patriot Front and Proud Boy types actually seem to be rather scarce on the ground, as a percentage of the total local population, just about anywhere.
            Most of the people I think of as trumpsters are older, invariably white, generally very poorly educated, and religious in as many or more cases than not.

            The ones who haven’t set foot in a church in decades, except for a funeral, are likely to pretend to be serious about their religion, observing it in the breach, so to speak. They talk the talk, when discussing politics, in other words, even if they’re running a cat house selling crack and on welfare on the side, lol.

            Upwards of half of the ones known to me personally would give you the shirt off their back, if you’re in a real pinch, meaning they’re actually mostly decent human beings, except that they’re just totally wrong about almost everything politically, including renewable energy, electric cars, single payer health insurance, welfare and just about anything else you can think of.
            A hell of a lot of the other half are smarter, and know more, and they’re just plain and simple fucking hypocrites.

            In next door NC, the Democrats outumber the Republicans, by voter registration, by a fair number, but the R’s own the state congressional delegation ten to three, because they’re THE experts when it comes to gerry mandering.

            In public, on tv, on the net, on the stump, they’re just about always dead set against just about anything the Democrats support politically……… but as Survivalist mentions, they’re often among the leaders in terms of renewable energy, saying one thing, doing the opposite because they’re not stupid and as some character says in one or another novel,” I seen my chances, and took’em. ”

            Texas is the leader in wind because Texas has probably the very best wind resource, taking into account both square miles and the wind itself.

            If the typical trumpster weren’t so ignorant, so as to fall for the R party line on renewable energy and electric cars, we would be five years, maybe more, ahead of where we are now, lol.

            If the Germans were to be transported bodily to Texas or California, they would be running on ninety per cent plus wind and solar power within another four or five years.

            ( How many of the regulars here remember me saying numerous times that neither the Russians nor the Germans have forgotten the Siege of Stalingrad over the last few years?)

            The Texas GOP was VERY quick to blame the recent blackout due to a super storm on their OWN wind industry, lol.

            Thirty years or forty years ago, one of my very favorite sayings was that “If you think medical care is expensive NOW, just wait until it’s FREE!”

            But back in those days I wasn’t paying much attention to politics at all.

      2. Ya, I remember at the beginning of the Trump reign an article that found Trump voters more likely to own a PV system than environmentalists. Believable, once you think about it.

  2. OFM,

    No doubt you have seen this.

    https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-levelized-cost-of-storage-and-levelized-cost-of-hydrogen/

    Note that for the natural gas analysis for the US they assume $3.45/MMBtu, in June the spot price was $7.70/MMBtu in the US, so Brazil on the chart for natural gas (where $8/MMBtu is assumed) would match up better with today’s reality, note that for Europe natural gas is over $25/MMBtu, we may see US natural gas prices go up as more LNG is exported and US natural gas prices will move closer to the World average price.

    Basically natural gas fired electric power is likely to get considerably more expensive.

  5. It seems that all around the world we are seeing a widespread and rapid drop in purchasing power.
    I suppose that this is exactly what we would expect if the world was at ‘peak prosperity’, to borrow a phrase.
    Loss of purchasing power may be the early symptom of rounding the top.
    Loss of purchasing power can be swallowed if it means no more leisure travel, or holding onto an old car for another 5 years. But it can be fatal if means a family can keep the belly’s full, medical care is unavailable, or a nation has food shortage because fertilizer cannot be afforded in the quantities required to keep the silos stocked with grain.

    Central banks have taken extraordinary measures to keep the party going (growth and stability for most) for the past couple decades.
    We may be at the point where the measures lose potency against the bigger challenges.

    1. Today I believe we are witnessing monetary tightening regarding a “rapid drop in purchasing power” and the reason the FED is behind the 8 ball is/was because of the war in Ukraine. Also believe we have gone/going back to a world wide cold war environment, which should accelerate a transition away from fossil fuels in the long run. I question China’s real intentions regarding their lockdowns and supply chain limitations. A lot of the work the FED needed to cool the economy has been done. Real estate has rolled over. The wealth feeling from the market has been reined in, you can include crypto in that too. Inflation(mostly energy) has cut the common man’s buying power. I expect another 3/4 point FED increase this month and wouldn’t be surprised if the FED holds in September.

      Are there any here who feel the future energy answer isn’t in EV’s, conservation, solar and wind ? I believe it is and no matter however painful that maybe. The soon the world gets serious about it and stops building ICE. Better in the long run. I don’t see anyone slowing down because of $5 gas. The sooner dates are set to end the sales of ICE the better.

      1. Madeline –

        Hydrogen, EVs, none of these actually address the energy issue (just conversion of energy from one form to another). Solar, wind, hydro do address the issue but it’s not clear how they perform over longer periods/at what scale…

        While it’s tempting to bet on a horse in a race, the reality is that all options will be used (ICEs, EVs, hybrids, natural gas, electric rail vehicles/trains, nuclear power plants, coal plants, natural gas plants, etc). The key is for as many people/companies move away from ICE as possible, this way it’s still an affordable option for those that have to use ICE for whatever reason. Bicycles, E-bikes, and light weight EVs are also critical to a low-energy future…

    2. Here’s a thought that for some reason hasn’t occurred to me until now.
      I’ve often talked about mini cars, and micro cars, two seaters fore and aft, etc, and how they WILL be sold by the millions, if necessary, so that the owners of tens of millions of McMansions can continue to live in their piece of the American dream, rather than moving into a cramped apartment near their job………. if such an apartment even EXISTS.

      There’s going to be one hell of a problem getting most people into micro cars for the first five or ten years, until they become commonplace and every body is used to them, and resigned to having one as opposed to no car at all.
      But suppose somebody, anybody, from Chevrolet to Kia to Tesla, builds a small but nice electric car…… and puts in a battery one third the usual size, providing a seventy or eighty miles of range, as opposed to two hundred plus miles. The remaining battery space could be left empty, or maybe even provided with a lid so that it could be used to store stuff such as a first aid kit or a rain coat or even a survival food and tool kit.

      So…….. this would likely enable the manufacturer to sell the car for as much as ten thousand dollars LESS right away…….. and the owner could have the option of later buying the other half or two thirds of the usual battery capacity.

      My personal opinion is that such a car would sell like ice water in hell to quite a few people who would use it to get to and from work and maybe run to the super market, while keeping a larger car or truck for other needs.

      You could charge a car of this sort with an ordinary extension cord overnight to meet your every day driving needs.

      And your friends, neighbors, and co workers wouldn’t think you’re broke, or else a pinko libtard tree hugger, lol.

        1. Hi Hickory,
          Times are too good for cheap electric cars to sell well, lol, for now.

          The vast majority of the public in a position to buy a new car just isn’t feeling any significant pain, even with gas at five bucks, and electric cars aren’t yet mainstream, either in terms of driver’s preferences or driver’s wallets.

          Almost every body I meet here in the darkest of backwoods is ready to at least talk about electric cars now, whereas a four or five years ago they were only ready to joke about them.
          But so far, not a single person known to me personally in the immediate area has bought an electric car. I have met one or two people, that’s all, around town, that own an electric car.

          The don’t yet give a damn about saving ten grand on a new car in order to help them save fifty bucks or more a week on gasoline.

          They’re still perfectly comfortable with their weekly budget including a hundred bucks for gas to commute and run errands.

          But that will change once they start getting worried about their jobs, and their mortgages, and their car payment, and six seven eight dollar gasoline, and losing the McMansion.

          Then a couple of hundred bucks less car payment, and another couple of hundred or more saved on gasoline will get their attention.

      2. Its a good idea OFM.
        Of course they would have to built the suspension to handle the max upgraded battery capacity weight.

        I suppose you would be able to buy such a vehicle with the small pack option, and then occasionally rent more capacity for the long trips.

    3. “I suppose that this is exactly what we would expect if the world was at ‘peak prosperity’”

      My take is, just like passing peak conventional oil then inventing money to fund a stopgap, we past the point of diminishing returns some time back, but we continued invented money; first to “stimulate” continued growth, then to pretend growth is continuing.

      Additionally, capitalists can’t continue labor arbitrage forever. As they move jobs to ever-poorer countries hoping to make more profit, they impoverish their rich world customers. Automation and offshoring have eliminated the middle class in America. Haves and have nots is all we have.

      The population bomb no one talked about goes off as the boomer bubble pops. It is leaving behind a much smaller working age population worldwide. Already plaguing Japan, Germany, it comes to the US, China and the rest of the EU about now.

      Finally, as that baby bust has reduced entry level workers in the rich world, the Haves required importing cheap labor for tasks that can’t be exported and won’t get done by entry workers because there aren’t enough young people.

      Because politicians want to get elected they find wedges in all these issues to impress voters and create division rather than consensus. And… the result is the decline in democracy and rule of law we see all around—and we’ve not seen the end of by a long shot.

      1. Pops- the millennial population bulge is now bigger than the ‘baby boom’ in the US, and globally those under 50 make up over 80% of the world. So keep that as part of your story.
        But yes, in the US there is a big shortage of labor now in most sectors, with employment only 3.6%
        Peak labor?
        Part of the big story.

        1. Hickory: “globally those under 50 make up over 80% of the world.”
          But young people (like wealth) isn’t evenly distributed and that is the problem. Take a look at the maps at this link: https://ourworldindata.org/age-structure#how-does-median-age-vary-across-the-world
          In many places, especially the rich world, 50 is the *median* age. While in others it is 20-something. Immigration from younger and/or poorer countries into ageing rich countries gives us the “proud boys” and the resurge of right-wing populism everywhere. People scared of being replaced, because well, they are.
          And as the baby boom ages there will be fewer active workers per worn out worker just like in Japan etc. now. And it will stay that way as population growth reverses.
          Or the kids eat the old. Little brats, lol

  6. I hardly ever drive, being lucky enough to work little during summers in my advanced years other than taking care of our orchard and the cemetery across the street….

    But yesterday I returned from a long drive to Ohio for my dad’s funeral, and upon entering New Hampshire from Massachusetts, was appalled at the tidal wave of traffic coming down from Maine–weekend travelers returning home. Route 95 was backed up for miles and miles.

    At $5 per gallon gas prices.

    Lucky me to be headed north instead of south.

  7. Homebuilder Comments in June: “Someone turned out the lights on our sales in June!”
    No surprise
    A brief excerpt:

    Read these builder comments from around the country. Sales have declined sharply in June.

    Some homebuilder comments courtesy of Rick Palacios Jr., Director of Research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting (a must follow for housing on twitter!):

    #Atlanta builder: “Someone turned out the lights on our sales in June!”

    #Austin builder: “Sales have fallen off a cliff. We’re selling 1/3 of what we sold in March and April. Trades are more willing to negotiate pricing since market has adjusted significantly past 60 days.”

    #Birmingham builder: “Sales have fallen 75% the last two months in a further out community.”

    #Boise builder: “Sales have slowed tremendously. Builders are dropping prices and halting new starts. Seeing prices drop on labor due to slowing of home starts. Expecting 15% to 20% reduction in most costs.”

    1. Part of the reason I feel the FED’s work is mostly done.

    2. Inflation figures for June is red hot beating expectations. FEDs job just got harder for now.

      1. IM-
        I think this makes their immediate job easier, since a 3/4 point rate hike this month is now an even more straight forward position to take

        The overall challenge of managing a peak global economic terminal situation with small blunt tools and no steering wheel grows more difficult each day of course.

        btw- When I was a teenager I knew a girl who was always the smartest in the room, even among all the very well educated adults it seemed. And she had a consistently calm sense of wisdom that was impressive, and something I’ve rarely witnessed. She is now number two at the US Fed.
        I say this just to point out that these organizations are comprised of some very bright and well educated people, taking in as much of the world info as they can. Its a task that is impossible to get right, since any/every action or inaction you make will have some negative repercussion, and they are fully aware of that.

        1. Fed funds futures indicate that the market expects 70% probability of a 100bp rate increase at the end of July.
          rgds
          WP

        2. Hickory,

          I disagree, core inflation figures might be indicating that inflation is now entrenched into the economy, which makes the FED a reactive organisation not proactive.

          They could have the smartest people working for them, as long as their models don’t correlate with the actual dynamic world, they will consistenly be wrong in their predictions and actions. 12 years of easy money got us to where we are. The FED is a key player in the position they have put themselves and the rest of the world in. A rock and a hard place.

          1. IM-
            Whether momentarily proactive or reactive, they will always be [seen as] wrong.
            The mission is an impossible one.

            2. IM- as i understand it the major central banks are in place to help blunt wild gyrations, and to keep to economy in a growth trajectory as best they can. That is the task handed to them.
              I suspect that gyrations would be much more wild if a mechanism like the central bank were not in place.
              Its a big question whether the near universal goal of rapid growth is good one.
              I think we have way overdone it.

              What is your answer to your question?

    3. Lumber prices at the nearest local big box store have crashed by as much as half over the last sixty days.
      Six months ago the yard was maybe one quarter stocked. Now it’s just about full, and you can get most sizes on the spot, with the wait for out of stock sizes down from ” we don’t know” to ” We’re expecting a truck load Wednesday.”

  8. More bloody people.

    INDIA WILL OVERTAKE CHINA IN 2023

    By this November, the planet will be home to 8bn. But population growth is not as rapid as it used to be. It is now at its slowest rate since 1950 and is set to peak, says the UN, around the 2080s at about 10.4bn though some demographers believe that could happen even sooner.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-62126413

    1. My personal belief is that the odds are probably no better than fifty percent , and more likely no better than twenty five percent, that the world population will ever reach ten billion.

      On days I’m feeling pessimistic, I’m sure local and regional population crises are fully baked in sometime over the next half century, to the extent that people will be dying in place or as refugees by the tens of millions, on a local or regional basis.

      It’s not just ONE thing at a time going wrong, it’s a dozen, and there will be knock on or synergistic effects across the board, economically, politically, climatically.

      Various geographic regions and countries are going to be up shit creek without a paddle, and there’s not going to be a great deal of help available from more prosperous countries because even places such as the USA and Western Europe are going to be feeling a LOT of pain.

      Economists and people who talk about the economy tend to think in terms of the big picture as if it’s a fairly consistent picture from country to country and decade to decade.

      We hear ten times more hand wringing more about the population of the world than we do about the population of Egypt, or Bangladesh, or Indonesia. We hear about the loss of top soil in the USA, because WE are in the USA, but we don’t hear much about it in other countries. We hear an endless stream of lamentations as the growth forever crowd rends it’s hair and goes the sack cloth and ashes route about the price of gasoline.

      But my perspective, the old farmer’s perspective, is that I hear about a local or regional disaster in the farm business on a regular basis……… but that they seldom have any real impact on overall production or overall prices. My neighbors fifty miles away may be forced to sell their cows for a lack of hay after a really dry summer, and cows may starve or die of thirst or in floods by the tens of thousands in Australia, but these news items don’t mean any more to ME than reading about fatal automobile accidents mean to a typical automobile owner and driver.

      But with the population growing, the land base shrinking due to fast climate change and development, energy supplies shrinking, hard times even in rich countries………..

      The problems are coming together in a “perfect storm” scenario, and this is happening, and will continue to happen mostly in the parts of the world least able to go proactive and do something about them.

      If we don’t get a grip on the energy problem here in the USA, we’re looking at a really bad economic downturn, on a national basis……. but on a LOCAL basis, such a downturn may be an outright disaster because the local economy is based on tourism. Barring really bad luck, we’ll be able to put the people in such communities on welfare…… food stamps, rent subsidies, Medic Aid, etc, here in the USA. I don’t foresee starvation and death by exposure on the grand scale happening here.

      But I can’t see us, or Germans or Italians or anybody else being in a position a couple of decades down the road to bail out piss poor countries with huge populations, high birth rates, and little or nothing in the way of natural resources or industries capable of bringing in money to pay for imported food.

      When a catastrophic low in national or regional food production happens because a drought plus a shortage of fertilizer plus unaffordable fuel and machinery plus a blight come the same year, people are going to starve, it’s as simple as that. It’s happened all through history, even before we went industrial on the farm, and it will continue to happen, and it will be WORSE because we’ve been able to prevent it happening for the most part for the last three generations or so by way of the so called Green Revolution.

      The Green Revolution is about to dry up and turn brown, because it’s based on technology based on cheap fossil fuels, these being the feed stocks for pesticides and fertilizers, cheap machinery, irrigation, and generally depleting one time gift of nature natural resources.

  9. The biggest producer, by far, in the Permian has been the Wolfcamp formation in Texas. Without Covid it looks like this would have peaked in late 2020 and would now be in decline. The chunk of production taken out by Covid messed up what might have been a nice looking logistic but it looks now that, at best, it will struggle to maintain production and, at worst, is going to enter a period of steep decline.

    1. The two smaller, but still major, producers in Texas are the Bone Spring, which looks to have reached a plateau, and Spraberry, which may have some growth left bet only a few hundred kbpd at best. All the growth is in one county (Midland from memory). Overall the Texas side of the Permian looks likely to start terminal decline sometime this year or early next

    2. Any growth is coming from, and will have to continue to come from New Mexico, mainly Wolfcamp as Bone Spring looks to be about to plateau. The productive area in NM is much smaller than in TX with only two producing counties compared to 8 to 10, and the producing wells are deeper on average. It seems unlikely that additions in NM are going to be able to compensate for the probable increasing declines in TX for many more months.

  10. Anyone who lived through the early stages of previous civilisations’ collapses would recognise these stories. This column gets longer every day.

    https://climateandeconomy.com/2022/07/12/12th-july-2022-todays-round-up-of-economic-news/

    The USA should be able to weather the coming storms better than most places given its endowment of natural resources, but it seems intent on tearing itself apart ideologically.

    ps – my apologies – the permian posts above should have been in the other thread. I used to be able to move things but no longer apparently.

  11. George –

    Dennis tells us that world production will continue to grow for next 5-10 years and that EVs will save us…while I don’t write that scenario off entirely, I don’t give it more than 5-10% chance…I think the world balance of type and quality of crude oil is also becoming a larger issue…also appears that world refining is becoming a strong headwind to further production growth. Thanks for the analysis and charts, they appear to be spot on…

    1. “that EVs will save us”

      The idea that EV’s, or that solar and wind, will fail to ‘save us’ is a funny notion if you stop to think about it Kengeo.

      As I see it there is no saving to be had, if by saving you mean a mechanism to keep the economy of 8 billion plus humans on a perpetual growth course.
      To expect continued growth, or even holding up current levels of population and economic activity, even after the one time combustion of fossil fuel energy has peaked and entered decline (decline per capita already begun), or after the degradation of the planet vegetation productive potential has progressed with soil loss, habitat destruction and human induced climate instability (especially hot drought)-
      is a false expectation…one that won’t be achieved. There ain’t no saving to be had, by any mechanism.

      Rather, we are in store for a peak in population and real economic activity during the lifetime of those already born, followed by decline- A child born in 2020 will be 60 yrs old in 2080, if they make it.

      To the original point here- those people and regions that can and do go heavy on solar and wind will be in much better shape to keep the local economy going than those that don’t. And yes, EV’s will allow those people and regions to keep moving. And yes, those people and places will still need/want oil and gas to supply things like N fertilizer and petrochemical feedstocks. But they won’t need oil for the majority use- light ground transport.

      Sure beats a future with an ICE car parked in the weeds out front, with no petrol to be had for the last 12 years,
      or walking your mule to town to sell potatoes while your neighbor with an EV cargo van powered by solar on their property is driving home with the bed filled with goods.

    2. There are numerous ways to cope with less oil and most of them have austerity built into them.

      The whole point with utilising electricity from renewables is that electronic based motors and supplied batteries can do a lot of work mechanically, move stuff around, with not that much energy loss due to heat in the process. So given renewable energy generation in general often has an EROI that is quite low but still significant (less than 10), the competitive advantage is within most (but not all) of transportation, a significant part of industrial use and also home heating. But for home heating fossil fuels are more competitive when it comes to efficiency. The speed of the transition becomes a price question. Renewables are intermittent; that complicates the “solution”, but does not make it obsolete.

      So, that is where we are in the energy transition story. It works great as long as the fossil fuel part of the economy does not fall of a cliff. Until fossil fuels contribute to let’s say less than 20% than what they do today in volume, it should somewhat work. Given enough renewable potential. Then it starts to get more ugly hitting living standards too hard. It would take some decades for it to become really serious.

      Unless we are more interested in warfare and social unrest instead. If the Ukraine – Russia war keeps dragging on, more than 20 000 artillery shells a day are going to be spent x 365 = 7,3 million shells a year. Each shell weigh about 45 kg. Compare that to the 7 million battery powered cars with batteries amounting to about 200-300 kg of metals in them on average. And that is only artillery. What a waste of resources; it explains a lot if the topic is what is dragging the green transition.

      One of the main selling points of renewables is that they last for at least 20 years. Could be 50 years with substantial maintenance. That cheap fossil fuels are crucial to make renewables in volume is beyond doubt, but the payback in energy should be good enough for most of the deployments.

        1. It is not more efficient to speed up the economy against limits. You should know that.

          1. Hint:
            This is about efficient means of transportation–
            No BigMac’s involved.

    3. KenGeo: In terms of growth of US tight oil production I found one thing quite telling. In all the data on ShaleProfile, in all formations and all basins I could not find an example of a new field being added (i.e. starting new production). All fields, at lease of any significance had some production from the earliest development years and then grew in parallel with all its neighbours. Almost all fields are past peak and most fields in a formation peaked at around the same time. I only found three significant fields that are growing and haven’t peaked (two in NM, one in Spraberry formation, TX). There are a few others that have peaked but are growing back slightly after the Covid dip. This is not a pattern the suggests a lot of future growth potential. In conventional developments growth in basins comes primarily from introducing new fields. Brownfield developments extent life, but very rarely allow production to exceed a previous peak. The pattern also suggests that there are no new discoveries to be made, which fits in with the lack of wildcat drilling over the last ten years, and that the operators know exactly what they have to deal with and are limiting the pace of development accordingly.

      1. I think the big message is finally sinking in to the global mind, despite every attempt to avoid receiving the message-

        Affordable oil per person is past peak.
        It is past time to adapt to a life dependent on less oil and all of the derived products.

        Say it tens times.
        And then get to it.

    1. Ahh, so this bit is fun:

      “This scenario provides compelling data showing that a rapid transformation of the global energy system is now well underway – and largely unstoppable due to fundamental economic factors. But it does not get us out of the woods. This energy system transformation is still consistent with a global average temperature rise of 2.6C, the study warns.”

      1. Survivalist and Bob – It’s hilarious when I see peak in “oil demand”, since oil production translates directly into GDP, then one could say there’s a peak in “GDP demand”, what a hot steaming pile. The world’s appetite for growth has no limits, it’s how the economic systems are built, how microbes are built, how all animals, plants, and life in general are built…even the climate is trying to tell us something…”hey guys, it’s getting warm maybe you should slow down burning all that crap?”.

        Sri Lanka may be the canary in the coal mine, looks like the president just flew the coop…
        https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-62132271

        1. You’re talking about an iron law that Darwin was well aware of and placed at the center of his thinking:

          [W]e may confidently assert, that all plants and animals are tending to increase at a geometrical ratio, that all would most rapidly stock every station in which they could any how exist, and that the geometrical tendency to increase must be checked by destruction at some period of life.

          The key part: the geometrical tendency to increase must be checked by destruction at some period of life.

          We’re at the point now where we pretend this isn’t going to happen.

        2. Kengeo- on the demand/supply issue
          How high a price does oil have to be where it starts to cut into demand? $120, $160, $200
          It is certainly possible that oil price will get high enough that demand will be cut, with all the non-critical uses (such as all air and ground leisure travel) being abandoned first, except among the rich of course.
          And it also certainly possible that oil demand could drop for other reasons, such a prolonged global depression due to catastrophic events unrelated to energy supply (war, famine, pandemic, financial mismanagement, loss of civil society/failed states, etc).

          In this decade my bet is on oil supply failing to meet demand, which guarantees high price.
          Yet depression could change that scenario beginning in any year.
          Its a fragile world scenario.

          1. Hickory – At this point, I do think demand destruction plays an important role for a small amount of overall production (maybe 10-15%).

            What is a gallon of oil inherently worth? $1, $2, $5, $50? If flying around on a plane then I’d say $2 is fair…if a matter of life and death then I might say somewhere between $5-$50…

            I think high gas prices are a blessing in disguise, we might have millions of people realize they don’t need a gas guzzler to grab groceries a mile down the road, they might learn to enjoy a little excercise or at least find a bike or e-bike as a suitable replacement…$10-15 gas would be great…problem is it drives up prices of so many other things…and impacts the people who can least afford it…

            Major price fluctuations are likely in the near future as the various demands grapple with the high price to be paid.

            In 2008 it was $200 adjusted for inflation.

            But the most important role oil plays is as the glue that holds the entire global conomic system together, that’s the truly scary part…

  13. ““The hot weather hitting Europe this week is set to reduce power output from France’s fleet of nuclear reactors, risking even higher electricity prices as the continent endures its worst energy crunch in decades.”

    Corrosion of the fuel rods, and now drought, is biting hard into French nuclear production.
    It will be interesting to see how very low their annual capacity factor is this year.
    Bad timing.

    1. They neglected their reactors for 30 years now, dishing out the saved money on social state benefits. Th

      Now all reactors should be replaced by newer ones since they are at the end of the technical life time – and there isn’t really a plan to do this.
      No plan for dismantling them, no plan for replacing them with whatever.

  15. Two interesting experiments in the name of energy adaptation-
    1- “OAKLAND, California — Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) and Tesla Inc. have launched a new pilot program that creates a virtual power plant [VPP], to help support electric grid reliability and save customers money. On June 22, Tesla invited approximately 25,000 PG&E customers with Powerwalls to join the VPP and help form the world’s largest distributed battery. In the first two weeks of the new program, more than 3,000 customers have expressed interest in enrolling, with more than 1,500 customers officially in the program.”
    [This kind of project allows pooling of the dispersed battery capacity into a cohesive unit that can be managed to stabilize/supply the local grid and ride out the supply/demand peaks and valleys.]

    2- “The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced the Community Geothermal Heating and Cooling Design and Deployment Funding Opportunity Announcement (FOA), which will award $300,000–$13 million for projects that help communities design and deploy geothermal district heating and cooling systems… developing case studies to be replicated throughout the country.”

  16. Texas , July 13, 3:30 pm. 2% of 35,000MW installed capacity. Billions of dollars of turbines sitting idle.
    What I love is come November when the demand is half of what it is today the wind energy will be at 20,000 MWs and it will front page news how great it is. Something really has little value when it not available when you need it most and in abundance when you need it the least.
    Such is the way of wind power. God help us.

    1. Maybe you should figure out a way to store the excess energy in some way, like in ammonia, hydrogen or in some other way? You might also consider insulating your house a bit, so you don´t need as much juice, both for cooling and heating purposes. Just a friendly tip. Btw, doesn´t the sun shine a bit in November, not here perhaps, but in Texas I think it does, so some PV might work.

      1. Laplander
        You mention hydrogen, there is no process on earth where the energy in the produced hydrogen is at best one half the energy required in its production. A power system has to pay for its construction and operations and pay those that provided the capital. The human race cannot progress or for that mater survive without abundant affordable energy. Think of these. Steel, Cement, Fertilizer, Plastic.

        1. I would beg do differ, electrolyzer efficiency is currently in the 70-75% range, NELs best is about 85% but there are even better variants coming. And you can use hydrogen for more than as a powerstorage or for NH3 production.

          https://hydrogen-central.com/hysata-electrolyser-efficiency-records-world-beating-green-hydrogen-cost/

          https://nelhydrogen.com/product/atmospheric-alkaline-electrolyser-a-series

          https://www.hybritdevelopment.se/en/

          https://www.h2greensteel.com/

          1. Using coal/oil/NG generators to power electrolyzers to make hydrogen is indeed a net energy loss.

            Hydrogen makes most sense if it’s produced by renewables, and maybe nuclear.

            The proposals to use Hydrogen as a feedstock to produce liquid fuels is a big issue, and the aviation industry and military are actively try to push that technology.

    2. This is why places that are very sunny and hot in the summer ought to install solar PV as fast as they can. I am still updating the graphs that I used to post in my reports on the EIA Electric Power Monthly. The interesting chart in this context is the “Total Monthly Generation at Utility scale facilities versus combined contribution from wind and solar”. For the years between 2017 and 2020 the combined output from wind and solar varied within a range of roughly 10 TWh between it’s minimum monthly output for the year and maximum monthly output for the year. That’s a fairly narrow band compared to more than 100 TWh difference between the annual minimum monthly demand and maximum monthly demand.

      In 2021 the difference between the minimum total solar output (PV and Thermal) was roughly 8.3 TWh following the pattern from previous years where the maximum output (summer) is roughly twice the minimum output (winter). When solar capacity doubles in the next couple of years the delta between winter and summer solar output should increase to roughly 16 TWh and sometime before 2030 when capacity doubles once more the delta should be in excess of 32 TWh. This will result in the chart form combined wind and solar output having a clear peak in the middle of the year.

      This midsummer peak should be more pronounced in the southern states (CA, AZ, NM, TX, FL) since these are the states where most utility scale solar is being installed. These are states that have very high demand as a result of higher air conditioner use in the summer. Baring a black swan event the lack of wind energy in the summer month will be balanced by an abundance of solar energy in five or six years time. It is quite possible that one or more black swan events could derail the march of solar PV.

    3. Newflash to Ervin- there ain’t no miracles…just look up oil depletion to get a glimpse of the problems with energy choices.
      So you’ve got to work with what you’ve got.

      And apparently the thousands of global electric utility managers/decision makers see things a little differently than you. They have a lot more at stake, and expertise, in the long term decisions than do you.

      As of 2019 Coal and Wind each contributed 20% to Texas electricity annual output, and Nat Gas added 47%. Nuclear 11%.
      https://comptroller.texas.gov/economy/fiscal-notes/2020/august/ercot.php

      Big news- solar and wind are the upswing. Learn to feel lucky about that.

      1. Hickory
        A year or so ago I read a puff piece by a concrete company about how they supplied 135,000 tons of concrete for a 300 MW wind farm in Ohio. That works out to over 6200 truck loads of concrete. Now add in the manufacture of the tons of rebar. I have to ask, just how many months or years it will take that wind farm to produce the energy it took it to be built. The economics are screwed up because of the free money, first in line rule and the real cost to have 300 MW of fossil fuel power at the ready when, like in Texas today there wasn’t any wind.

        1. Hi Ervin
          in regard to your question ” I have to ask, just how many months or years it will take that wind farm to produce the energy it took it to be built.”
          the answer turns out to be pretty favorable, assuming you put the equipment in an area with good wind resource of course. The utilities try their hardest to do that.

          “The energy balance of a wind power plant shows the relationship between the energy requirement over the whole life cycle of the power plant (i.e. to manufacture, operate, service and dispose) versus the energy generated by the wind power plant. This energy payback period is measured in ‘months to achieve payback’, where the energy requirement for the life cycle of the power plant equals the energy it has produced. At this ‘breakeven’ point, our wind turbines become energy neutral. ”

          Answer for onshore wind is less than one year, and a year or two for solar-
          https://www.vestas.com/en/sustainability/environment/energy-payback

          and- “Alternatively, energy payback may be measured by ‘number of times payback’ – meaning, the amount of energy paid back to society versus the energy needed in the lifetime of that turbine. Over the life cycle of a V117-4.2 MW wind power plant, it will return 50 times more energy back to society than it consumed. ”

          There are quite a few studies that have been to look at these questions, with similar results.

        2. And just for thought, compare this to a coal plant.
          You need to build the coal plant itself – it’s a “few” tons of concrete and steal alone. 100,000 tons are nothing here. The local coal plant here is a monument even when watched from 15 miles away.

          Then you need to build ships to carry the coal from Australia to your destination – every big hauler 100,000 tons of steel. Perhaps you need several, depending on the route.

          And then you have to build the mine – lot’s of concrete in the installations, too, and much steel for all the machinery and trucks and railways.

          And a loading and unloading harbor freight terminal. Lot’s of concrete here, too.

  18. “The U.S. is the latest country to pass what’s become a critical EV tipping point: five per cent of new car sales powered only by electricity. If the U.S. follows the trend established by 18 countries that came before it, a quarter of new car sales could be electric by the end of 2025. That would be a year or two ahead of most major forecasts. The next major car markets approaching the fabled tipping point this year include Canada, Australia, and Spain.”

  19. Ervin. I completely agree that intermittency of wind and solar are a major shortcoming.
    Nonetheless inexpensive energy is nothing to disregard, as all the worlds utilities are proving with their installation choices.

    Here is the big deal-
    “The advantage of renewables over crude oil and natural gas will be “unprecedented” in 2022 as costs may be higher [than last year] but far below gains seen in prices of fossil fuels”
    “Almost two-thirds of newly installed renewable power last year was lower cost than the world’s cheapest coal-fired options in the G20, “confirming the critical role of cost-competitive renewables in addressing today’s energy crises,”

    1. Let me be rude, you guys “always” leave out the cost of that standby power plant that has to be there when the wind isn’t blowing. Right now only 434 MW of wind power is being produced for a 127,547 MW load on the PJM system. Those coal and gas plants may only be used for a few weeks a year but they have to be maintained and operational and staffed with trained personnel. THAT COSTS MONEY. I’ve saw last March over 9000 MW of wind when PJM had a 87,000 MW load. I’ve been watching this for years and this imbalance is normal and rate payers pay for this mess. Only if you believe that carbon dioxide will end life on earth can this path to energy poverty be justified.

      1. Ervin – I can vouch for these peaker plants as I’ve done work at some of them…often they standby 9-10 months until that one hot summer week when AC use goes thru the roof…then 2 of 5 turbo jet engines turn on a generate a whole lot of energy…the standby factor can’t be ignored that’s for sure…fortunately, most of these facilities are being replaced with giant battery storage systems capable of balancing grids and handling the notorious “duck bill” related to solar/wind…

      2. Ervin. I am fully aware of the need for backup-complimentary power.
        And yes, its part of big cost equation.
        You better believe that the utilities personnel and energy planners know that better than any of us.
        You maybe ought to consider them very familiar with their sector of operations.

  20. https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=246334#discuss

    “Time preference is a huge part of economic activity folks. Simply put time preference is why you labor beyond subsistence; you wish to have something either now or tomorrow so you put in more than bare subsistence in effort in order to have it by saving part of what you produce to spend tomorrow. When confidence that you will have and keep that it is destroyed so is your willingness to put forward said effort. When productivity is destroyed then credit creation is doubly inflationary because the MV = PQ is not a suggestion — it is the basic monetary and economic law, unlike the laws our Congress and government break every this one is mathematical thus and cannot be violated any more than 2 + 2 will ever equal anything other than 4 and “Q” is directly ratable with productivity.

    1. MV=PQ only applies to an economic system with an exogenous money supply – not the case in the world that we live in.
      Rgds
      WP

  21. From article in todays New York Times.

    HOW DEMAND FOR TWIGS IS BRINGING DOWN A RAINFOREST

    “In the Congo River Basin, people who collect bundles of wood to make charcoal are playing a surprisingly large role in the deforestation of a region that rivals the Amazon in importance. It’s a ritual that in its ubiquity is a tragedy. And not just for generations of people who have no means to prepare food other than to cook it over open fires, but also for the entire planet as the carbon-absorbing forests so critical for slowing global warming are taken apart tree by tree and in some cases branch by branch.

    Nearly 90 percent of Congo’s 89.5 million people rely on firewood and charcoal for cooking. Congo lost more than 1.2 million acres of primary forest in 2021, mostly from residents clearing land for farming and for collecting wood for fires and charcoal.”

    https://nytimes.pressreader.com/article/281535114709344

    2. ” clearing land for farming and for collecting wood for fires and charcoal.”

      We may see a rapid global deforestation if/when we get to the rapid fossil fuel decline.
      I have called it the
      Terminal Deforestation Event
      in my more lucid moments.
      Sorry.

  22. UK Maps Out £54 Billion of Wiring to Connect Offshore Wind

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-07/uk-maps-out-54-billion-of-wiring-to-connect-offshore-wind-farms

    I think UK simply had to go for upgrading their grid, given the huge pipeline of offshore wind power coming online the coming years. There is a lot to ask for, higher capacity to transfer power from one part of the country to another when needed. Also more robust capacity to increase electricity access per home. So then there will be a multitude of solutions to counter the reliance on intermittant wind power in the future: Strengthened grid, hydrogen production, pumped hydro, interconnector cables and flexible demand (e.g. EV charging).

  23. I have received the following from my publisher.

    Dear Ron,

    Production is beginning on your book.

    Your Author Representative is going to make sure we have everything we need. Typically this review takes a few business days. We will contact you if we need more information from you.

    But they tell me it will be 10 to 13 weeks before the book appears on Amazon. So I have nothing to do but sit and wait. Bummer. But football season will be getting exciting about that time so I have two things to look forward to. 🤣

    2. Hi Ron,
      I want two autographed copies. Let me know how to get them. I’ll send you an address or whatever is needed.
      Thanks.

    3. Congrats Ron!

      I’ll be buying a copy for me and my dad.

      Can you post to aspiring authors the process you went thru to get your book published?

      thanks!

      1. Well, it’s called self-publishing. That is you have to pay someone to publish your book. It is not the same thing as vanity publishing. Those companies mostly went out of business. But there are several companies that where you can publish on kindle for very little. It cost a little more to get a paperback published. KDP is the one most people use. Their prices start at $49. Of course that is Kindle only.

        My book will be on Kindle as well as paperback. If you go with both Kindle and Paperback it will cost you about $1,000 for both. Of course you can pay more if you want more service. I am going with a company called Outskirts Press. They are higher than KDP but I am satisfied with them.

        Of course if you write something that you can send to a publisher and get them to accept it, they will pay you even before publication. But that is only for something that is really good. But you can expect a few rejections before you get someone to publish your book. The author that submitted the first Harry Potter book got 11 rejections before she found a publisher. Now both her and her publisher are mulltimillionairs. So if you think you have another Harry Potter….

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