Electric Commercial Vehicles, a ten year update – Part 3

306 thoughts to “Electric Commercial Vehicles, a ten year update – Part 3”

1. Sorry about this 😉

   “There are a couple of Italian manufacturers that supply very small electric commercial vehicles. Alke, a twenty fivde year old outfit”
   fivde>five

   “In the UK South East Electric Vehicle Services, SEEVS sells and services a wide range of electric vehicles, including the Cushman brand (Titan load carrier pictured below) that produced three wheeled “metet maid”
   metet maid>meter maid ?

   NAOM

   1. Thanks! Feel free to let me know as you find them. Fixed both and spotted another. There’s probably more. When you’re working with HTML tags and URLs and hyperlinks you start to ignore the little red squiggly(spell check) lines more than you should!

      edit: Thanks also for bringing up milk floats the other day. As you can see, following up on that produced a lot of material for this post!

      1. Do you have a gmail at your nym? That would save a post.

         Milk floats were much more than deliveries, they were a rich part of life. News was spread, the milky kept an eye on vulnerable people, there was a pair of eyes on the lookout for trouble and they would often have local produce to sell as well. If the milk was still on the step from the day before the milky would check and call the police if necessary. They might also do small chores such as dropping a letter in the post box or passing a message.

         NAOM

2. The first part of this article brings back memories of these

   https://i.pinimg.com/originals/e7/5e/b4/e75eb4ae9dc1e78007184c834f03a892.jpg

   I used these many a time when I was young. Heh, it also reminds me of Jothams too, time flys.

   NAOM

3. The only three cities I have lived in for long are 3/5 that have Trolley Buses (Phila, SF and Seattle).
   I thought they were standard faire all about.
   Goes to show a small sample can skew your perspective.

   Thanks for all the work on this review series Island Boy.
   So many possibilities out there.
   Living around diesel exhaust and coal smoke is just horrible.

   1. You’re welcome. It has been a really interesting exercise for me. I didn’t know about a lot of the stuff I’ve been digging up. As an example, I was having a hard time finding anything significant about electric underground mining equipment but, once I got one lead, more and more just started surfacing, giving the feeling that there is a good amount of interest and huge potential for the use of electrified vehicles in mining! I posted pictures of three different types of underground mining machines but, I was starting to find a lot more, including some recent introductions. In the end I decided to make two out of the three reflect equipment that has been around for at least a decade in line with most of the rest of the equipment covered in this post.

      It’s kind of sad thinking about the road not taken. For example, I’ll bet most people didn’t know that a tram car system, powered by renewable hydro-electricity, was introduced to the capital city of Jamaica in …….. 1899! It ceased operations in 1948 when the tram cars were replaced by diesel buses. I remember seeing the tram lines embedded in the street and there is still one location where they are still visible. The hydroelectric facility that was built to provide electricity for the tram system remained in operation until August 1966. Now the island is practically 100 dependent on imported petroleum for it’s transport!

      1. Here is a link about fracture treating wells by converting from diesel to natural gas to generate electricity to in turn run the very high pressure pumps needed. The technology uses natural gas that is now flared. Maybe it will make you feel a little better. We have to take what we can get.

         https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Electric-Fracking-Could-Take-Over-The-Permian.html

         1. Holy Petroleum Batman, if this method is used by all frackers it will reduce the use of diesel in the US by 0.2%. Yippeee!

      2. I have never worked underground, but I know people that have, and a couple that still do, unless they have died recently.

         From what they have told me, electricity is pretty much SOP for just about EVERYTHING underground these days, at least in mines regulated by the feds and by ethical and competent state regulators.

         (It seems there are still some state employees in some states who draw a larger check from the mine owners than they do from the state itself.)

         It’s not so much safety, it’s mostly cost. Running cable that’s designed to be easily movable is much cheaper, faster, and less expensive than transporting fuel thru the mine, and maintaining ice engines. An electric compressor can be easily moved, and so anytime compressed air is needed, it can be provided from very close by.

         We still hear a lot about miners working for peanuts, but this has not been true in the USA for a long time. Mining in this country pays well, compared to other work requiring a similar level of knowledge and skill, and a few minutes saved here and there day in and day out adds up fast.

         1. “From what they have told me, electricity is pretty much SOP for just about EVERYTHING underground these days, at least in mines regulated by the feds and by ethical and competent state regulators.”

            When I was searching for stuff on electric underground mining equipment, those were my thoughts too so, you can imagine my frustration when I was having difficulty finding anything. However, as I explained to Hickory in reply just above this, once I started finding stuff I sort of got on a roll. I took great pains to include the dates when some of this electric equipment was introduce in the quotes I excerpted (1984 and 1988), indicating that some of this equipment has been in use for over thirty years!

            Using electrical equipment in very tight spaces, where forced ventilation is the only source of fresh air seems like a no brainer to me. I was pretty sure that, in the absence of batteries running cables to the mine face would be practical so I was very relieved when I started finding pictures of exactly that type of equipment, as shown in the first picture in the section on underground mining equipment. Somehow I was under the impression that electrical mining equipment had been in use for many decades. I must have read something to that effect somewhere. Can any of your acquaintances say how long ago electrical equipment started being used? I was looking for information on that but, I wanted to get this piece done for this week so, I had to move on to other things.

            “Mining in this country pays well, compared to other work requiring a similar level of knowledge and skill, and a few minutes saved here and there day in and day out adds up fast.”

            One of the trends I unearthed in doing the research on underground mining equipment is similar to trends in cars, trucks and buses, autonomous operations. It’s looking like the final part of this series is going to have to be about future developments including automation and remote control. I’m already working on part 4, covering recent product announcement and trials so it’s looking like that will be included in a part 5!

            1. Electric equipment is also used on the surface for processing ores and moving them (conveyor belts and slurry pumps). Electric equipment in mining goes back to 1891 (Edison).
               Look up New Jersey and Pennsylvania Concentrating Works.

            2. It’s not just underground. Those BIG rotary bucket diggers that work in open cast are electric – with BIG cables.

               NAOM

               1. Mining per capita

                  https://mineralseducationcoalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2018-Mining-Cart-Per-Capita-Color-1.pdf

4. Possible future?

   Fossil fuels will peak in the 2020s as renewables supply all growth in energy demand
   “The 2020s will be the decade of fossil fuel demand peaks, as one bastion after another is stormed and overwhelmed by the rising renewable tide. This will inevitably lead to trillions of dollars of stranded assets across the corporate sector and hit petro-states that fail to reinvent themselves.”
   https://www.carbontracker.org/fossil-fuels-will-peak-in-the-2020s-as-renewables-supply-all-growth-in-energy-demand/

   And saying something similar but even more dramatic.
   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=duWFnukFJhQ&t=3689s

   Hopium or real possibility?

   Convergence of the EV/renewable surge plus the Arctic Blue Ocean Event plus oil production actually peaking anyway might bring about some interesting side effects. The techno-happy people will be highly encouraged.

   1. Interesting!

      That particular version of Tony Seba’s presentation is a little over a year old. At around the 43 minute mark he talks about LIDAR, which is currently considered a superceded technology for use in autonomous vehicles. However, he mentions the cost curve drop of that technology from $70,000 to $250 in less than 5 years.

      Even more importantly he mentions computing power needed to process the data and in the year 2000 a 1 TeraFlops computer cost $46 milliom dollars and took up 1,600 sq ft of space. At the the time of this presentation NVIDIA had developed an 8 TFOPS computer for $600 and TESLA had incorporated it in their cars.

      Fast forward one year and TESLA has built a 144 TFOPS computer for a 20% cost reduction and have done it completely in house.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZK1fARxYsE
      Tesla Autonomy 1/6: Hardware, Chip Design

      Obligatory disclaimer:

      This comment is not in any way intended as an endorsement of TESLA or any other tech company, nor should it be taken to mean that I think AEVs are in any way, shape or form, a magic bullet that will solve humanity’s pressing problems. It is simply a layperson’s observation on the incredible rate of technological change that we are all currently living through. I also refrain from assigning any value judgement to this or any other emerging technology, I have no idea as to the future long term consequences of applying it on a large scale. And anyone who states that they do, in IMHO, is simply lying!

      Cheers!

      1. Froggy doesn’t want a Tesla.

         

         1. Then Froggy should read my disclaimer. And for what it is worth, you never know, environmental scientists and others intent on helping Froggy survive, may yet come to find some benefits in having access to the technology of a 144 TFOPS computer for less than the price of a typical laptop and one that consumes very little power to boot. (pun intended).

            Maybe it will help reduce the massive carbon footprint of server farms someday. But since it was developed by TESLA that’s apparently a bad thing in and of itself. And since I brought it up, I’m once again fair game for personal attacks despite explicitly stating that in my view it is just another example of the incredible speed of technological change happening all around us.

            But it is much better for everyone to stick their heads in the sand and go back to medieval technologies, build walls and ignore all the changes!

            1. Go out and buy a sense of humor Fred. You might want to get some desensitizer lotion too.

               1. Frogs say need bugs not chips. Environmentalists too big to swallow. Need food now. Also don’t need to be squashed by tires.

                  To think clearly one needs to have more than one perspective.
                  It’s not all about humans.

               2. To think clearly one needs to have more than one perspective. It’s not all about humans.

                  Tks! I’m already a card carrying member of that choir, have been for a long time!

                  http://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2018/eccc/CW69-1-76-eng.pdf

                  Declines in Canadian amphibian
                  populations: designing a national
                  monitoring strategy

                  https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8048938

                  Parallel Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Clustering of Large Ecological Datasets on Hybrid Supercomputers

                  Abstract:
                  A proliferation of data from vast networks of remote sensing platforms (satellites, unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), airborne etc.), observational facilities (meteorological, eddy covariance etc.), state-of-the-art sensors, and simulation models offer unprecedented opportunities for scientific discovery. Unsupervised classification is a widely applied data mining approach to derive insights from such data. However, classification of very large data sets is a complex computational problem that requires efficient numerical algorithms and implementations on high performance computing (HPC) platforms. Additionally, increasing power, space, cooling and efficiency requirements has led to the deployment of hybrid supercomputing platforms with complex architectures and memory hierarchies like the Titan system at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The advent of such accelerated computing architectures offers new challenges and opportunities for big data analytics in general and specifically, large scale cluster analysis in our case. Although there is an existing body of work on parallel cluster analysis, those approaches do not fully meet the needs imposed by the nature and size of our large data sets. Moreover, they had scaling limitations and were mostly limited to traditional distributed memory computing platforms. We present a parallel Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Clustering (MSTC) technique based on k-means cluster analysis that can target hybrid supercomputers like Titan. We developed a hybrid MPI, CUDA and OpenACC implementation that can utilize both CPU and GPU resources on computational nodes. We describe performance results on Titan that demonstrate the scalability and efficacy of our approach in processing large ecological data sets.

                  https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/07/humanity-must-save-insects-to-save-ourselves-scientist-warns

                  On Monday, the largest ever assessment of the health of nature was published and warned starkly that the annihilation of wildlife is eroding the foundations of human civilisation. The IPBES report said: “Insect abundance has declined very rapidly in some places … but the global extent of such declines is not known.” It said the available evidence supports a “tentative” estimate that 10% of the 5.5m species of insect thought to exist are threatened with extinction.

                  Report can be read here:

                  https://www.ipbes.net/news/Media-Release-Global-Assessment

                  Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES)
                  Media Release

               3. That’s great news, only 10 percent going extinct. Hardly a blip. Glad that my area and several others are outliers.

               4. The IPBES report much like the IPCC, is just the watered down consensus that is presented to policy makers. BTW, in the strictest of definitions a decline of 80% in a population constitutes a severe threat but does not count as an actual guarantee of extinction. My main criticism of the IPCC is their underestimation of risk and I also apply it to this IPBES report.

                  Sarcasm aside, this report is not great news!

                  In other news: So far 3 countries have declared climate emergencies The UK, Ireland and New Zealand.

                  Here’s what the IPBES says:
                  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kR0HeepbWCc
                  IPBES Regional Assessments – English Subtitles

                  This is what the scientists are saying:
                  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfTNeXOMyvY
                  The insect apocalypse | DW Documentary

               5. Oh, sorry! my sarcasm meter is at the shop!

            2. Amazon is developing Arm based servers that will slash power consumption. Combine that with Open Architecture and natural cooling of server farms the overall power consumption is likely to decline but it will take some years to get good penetration.

               NAOM

5. There are several operating trolley museums in Pennsylvania.
   Rockhill Trolley Museum
   Pennsylvania Trolley Museum
   Electric City Trolley Museum Association

6. Since 50:1 L/D apparently is not enough, ideas are being formed to produce 100:1 L/D.

   https://www.dg-flugzeugbau.de/en/library/performance-increase-possibilities

7. China not ‘walking the walk’ on methane emissions
   Chinese regulations on coal mining have not curbed the nation’s growing methane emissions over the past five years as intended

   Although the goal stated in China’s 12th Five Year Plan was to remove or convert 5.6 million metric tons (5.6 teragrams) of methane from coal mines by 2015, the team found that methane emissions instead rose by about 1.1 million metric tons (1.1 teragrams) per year between 2010 and 2015. This is in line with the nation’s annual increases methane emissions going back to 2000.

   Overall, Chinese methane emissions increased by 50 percent from 2000 to 2015. This could account for as much as 24 percent of the total global increase in methane emissions over the same period.

   https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/01/190129124835.htm

   Meanwhile, mandatory EPA funding cuts have left it unable to enforce US coal mine methane rules.

   “Oh mama, I feel a hot flash coming on!”

8. And for something completely different.
   Your weekly volcanic activity report.
   https://volcano.si.edu/reports_weekly.cfm

9. Workhorse, out of Ohio, is making electric delivery vans- cool!
   https://electrek.co/2018/10/17/workhorse-starts-electric-van-production/

   UPS ordered 1000 of them-
   https://electrek.co/2018/06/15/ups-fleet-1000-electric-vans-workhorse/

   1. Their finances are reported to be a bit dodgy with not enough cash in hand.

      NAOM

      1. Tesla too.
         Amazon for 1st tens years too.
         US government too.
         Trump lost over 1 billion in 1 decade. Hmpf.

10. Slated for 2022- VW cargo van
    https://autoweek.com/article/green-cars/volkswagen-id-buzz-cargo-concept-previews-our-electric-delivery-van-future

    1. Volkswagen logs >10,000 registrations for ID. 3 1ST EV in first 24 hours

       At a press event yesterday in Berlin, Volkswagen launched pre-booking in Europe for the first model in its new full-electric ID. model family, the ID.3. One day later, Volkswagen reports that customer interest in the initial special edition of the EV—the ID.3 1ST, which is limited to 30,000 vehicles—is significantly exceeding the brand’s expectations.

       More than 10,000 registrations were received throughout Europe during the first 24 hours.

       https://www.greencarcongress.com/2019/05/20190509-vwid3.html

       1. Elon said the Tesla drive trains should go a million miles. But with all the complexity and propriety circuit boards in modern cars is this really possible? I had to scrap 3 cars before their time since the parts in limited run cars are too expensive. The Local VW dealer tried to replace the same circuit board for the door control unit three times! Such stupid design and car dealer service is just criminal. There are now dozens of different tail light lens for an F150 to discourage 3rd party parts.
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKrND6NaLZs

          1. You can often buy TWO slightly different looking but perfectly serviceable after market parts such as headlights and taillights for popular vehicles such as pickup trucks for WAY LESS than half the price of ONE new one from the dealer.

             Once installed, nobody will ever notice the difference, unless somebody takes it to a car show forty years down the road.

    2. I plan to deal with stuff like this in either part 4 or what is looking like a part 5 on possible future products. Part 4 is just looking at new stuff that is already available or will be very shortly and including stuff scheduled for any time after 2020 looks like it will be too much for one post!

       1. OK cool. Looking forward to it.

11. The UK has completed a full week when electricity production from coal fell to zero. We still import 7 percent of our electricity, some of which will be from coal. Estimated carbon intensity 253 g/kwh.

    1. Excellent- 51 weeks to go!

12. Offshore Wind maybe-
    https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/floating-offshore-wind-holds-promise-for-vertical-axis-turbines#gs.b0fy9z

13. “We now face a once-in-a-generation opportunity to transform the U.S. power grid. If we fail to push forward decisively, we will be locked into the past model of vertical-integration for another 30 years and will lose the opportunity to bring substantial innovation and transformation to the electric industry.”
    https://www.utilitydive.com/news/use-it-or-lose-it-the-once-in-a-generation-opportunity-to-change-the-us-el/553569/
    By Crippling the Utility of Grid Tie Solar, Utilities and TPTB have won the 1st go around, By design Currently US Grid Tie Solar Inverters just quit for 300 seconds when they see an anomaly. Would you own a car that quits for 300 seconds for every bump in the road? Get ready for distributed disruption in the force. Most AC sources can not be combined like DC sources. Enphase ensemble will provide true autonomous Utility which should force the rest of the industry to step up to “Solar 2.0”. It should be possible to charge an EV directly from AC PV Panels if they get it right. https://enphase.com/en-us/ensemble

14. But with all the complexity and propriety circuit boards in modern cars is this really possible?

    Yep! Done it myself. But there is a very steep learning curve. And you need to have the right diagnostic tools (very expensive) and work with outside the box thinkers who know how to hack and reprogram all those boards modules and the car’s entire computer network. Hint! the Dealers don’t have such people working for them.

    I had to scrap 3 cars before their time since the parts in limited run cars are too expensive.

    And if you get them used and cheap you need to be able to reprogram them.

    See my hint above!

    The Local VW dealer tried to replace the same circuit board for the door control unit three times!

    As I mentioned most dealerships only hire morons! Unless you have a qualified engineer on staff, most guys at the dealership can’t even find the right part numbers.

    BTW they don’t teach any of the above at college or automotive trade schools.
    A couple friends and I learned the hard way at the school of very hard knocks by rebuilding a few dozen crashed and flooded late model vehicles from all the major automobile manufactures.

    As an example if you try to swap the seats from identical year and model Honda Pilot SUVs from one vehicle to another you will need to reprogram the SRS modules or your air bag light will not go off!

    Good Luck!

    1. “Honda Pilot SUVs from one vehicle to another you will need to reprogram the SRS modules or your air bag light will not go off!”

       you take the bulb out , well at least on Rover 25 over here…..

       Forbin

       1. On my own vehicles I use a small square of electrical tape over the light on the instrument cluster. A lot easier than removing an LED from an instrument display many of which need the entire board replaced because the bulb is not even removable… 😉

          1. Snip, snip 🙂

    2. A used wagon with 200k+ on it. I was unable to fix it, alarm going off randomly. Reluctantly reported it to insurance. Turns out VW changed door computers many times mid production run. Each door had a different unit. Dealer had to scrap 4 of the same door from the junk yard before they could get a match. There no excuse for such nonsense. Each car a crapshoot.

       1. I hear you! Though if you replaced 4 doors and that didn’t solve the problem, Occam’s razor says the problem probably wasn’t the door. Why couldn’t you just replace the unit in the door? My guess is you may also have had a bad connection or a short in the wiring harness from the door.

          BTW, You also need to grab the coding from the module before changing them out . Some modules have the same part numbers but have different functions activated. The coding from your original module will have to be entered into the new module.

          As I mentioned above, the last person I would trust to get this right, is someone from the Dealer, they are completely clueless!

          1. The cluelessness will get worse as anyone who knows what they are doing will become independent mobile fixers for the new electric car companies.

             NAOM

    3. Fred,

       This seems like a business opportunity for someone with the right skill set.

       1. Fuggedaboutit.

15. The milkmen however were prone to seduction. A one-minute video…

    https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2xg419

    1. ‘were prone to seduction.’

       Well, who among us arn’t?

       Don’t answer that, they know who they are.

       1. “As a wise man once told my father while trying to sell him a program at a Knicks game, “They’re just a bunch of tall guys in shorts, without a program”—and so, too, the various hangers-on in the Trump orbit may seem to be just a bunch of transparent grifters and/or terrifying ideologues in suits unless you have a clear guide for who the players are. We plan to bring you the key stats and career highlights of all the best people in the administration, as well as those who are “too hot” for government service and end up bounced out to the 2020 campaign, various 501(c)3 scams, or who just end up on the semi-consensual receiving end of those rambling “executive time” phone calls. “

16. One for Iron Mike

    http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190507-weeds-a-surprising-way-to-fight-climate-change

    NAOM

    1. Thanks NAOM. The rate of which NSW is cutting down its national parks and state forests is scary. You can see it on google maps. Very interesting read.

17. Jason Bradford’s The Future is Rural is rather interesting. Here he is in conversation:
    https://kunstler.com/podcast/kunstlercast-316-chatting-jason-bedford-author-of-the-future-is-rural/

    1. Good listen.
       Bradford is a good communicator.
       I interacted with him briefly when he was still in Willits
       .

    2. Look forward to a listen. I enjoyed the previous one with the architect.

18. Joe Biden Looks To Revive Obama’s Climate Plan. Scientists Say That’s Not Good Enough.

    The 2020 Democratic candidate’s plan to tackle the climate crisis, which he’s called an “existential” threat, reportedly includes a role for fossil fuels.

    “The greatest fault in his proposal is the suggestion that natural gas can be part of the solution,” Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Pennsylvania State University, said by email. “The solution to a problem created by burning fossil fuels cannot be the burning of fossil fuels.”

    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/biden-climate_n_5cd5a008e4b0705e47db6ac2

    1. “The greatest fault in his proposal is the suggestion that natural gas can be part of the solution,”

       I’m with those who think we still need Nat Gas for now.
       To pretend that we can get rid of it this decade is naive.
       Better to be realistic, and to actually win the election. [Hang on Ruth]
       Its going to take a long time to get enough renewables deployed to cover not just current electrical needs, but all the other stuff that fossil burning is supplying.
       Lets finish getting rid of Coal and Oil Sands first [that is still going to take a long time at this pace].
       Then airplanes [- for you GF].
       Then Petrol.
       Then Nat Gas
       Trump will get re-elected if progressives don’t at least pretend to acknowledge reality.

19. Illinois might start charging $1,000 per year to own an electric vehicle
    By Robert Channick

    https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-electric-vehicle-fee-illinois-20190509-story.html

    A proposed hike in Illinois’ annual registration fee for electric vehicles, from $17.50 to $1,000, is being called unfair by current EV owners, and a sales disincentive by manufacturers — just as the new technology is beginning to gain broader traction.

    Aimed at raising money to make overdue road improvements across Illinois, the proposed legislation would also more than double the state’s gas tax to 44 cents a gallon and raise the registration fee for standard vehicles to $148, from $98, among other elements.

    But the kicker is a nearly 60-fold increase in the electric vehicle registration fee — one that is sure to cause sticker shock across a nascent segment of the auto industry, which has depended on government incentives to entice early adopters.

    Hybrids and plug-in electric hybrids, which both use gas to supplement electric power, are not included in the $1,000 fee proposal.

    The legislation, introduced this week by Democratic Sen. Martin Sandoval of Chicago, would raise about $2.4 billion in annual transportation funding, according to its backers. Sandoval did not respond to a request for comment Thursday on the proposed EV registration fee hike.

    Last year, electric vehicle sales topped 200,000, or about 2 percent of total U.S. auto sales, according to Edmunds, an auto research firm. Tesla is the market leader, but competitors include the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Bolt, with a host of new EVs from other manufacturers set to hit the market in the near future.

    “Every automaker has broadcast loud and clear that the future of automotive is autonomous and electric,” Jeremy Acevedo, an analyst with Edmunds, said Thursday.

    Acevedo said EV sales growth has been slower than some projected, with a dearth of models and not enough electric infrastructure — charging stations — to promote widespread adoption.

    A $7,500 federal tax incentive has helped consumers take the plunge. But once a manufacturer hits 200,000 electric vehicles delivered, the credit is cut in half, which is the case with Tesla. In fact, starting July 1, the tax incentive will be cut in half again at Tesla, to $1,875 per car.

    At the other end of the spectrum, Nissan, which sold 14,713 Leafs in the U.S. last year, has yet to hit the 200,000 cumulative sales mark and still qualifies for the full $7,500 federal tax credit. Retail price for the car starts at less than $30,000, before incentives.

    A disincentive, such as the Illinois registration fee, could significantly slow sales momentum, Acevedo said.

    1. It’s clear the guys who wrote this bill are in somebody’s pocket. At FIFTY CENTS per gallon, a thousand bucks is two thousand gallons, or roughly forty gallons a week. That’s at least a thousand miles even in a gas hog car, and around eight hundred miles in any newer ordinary pickup truck, PER WEEK. Plus it will likely have to be paid UPFRONT, as a tax, at registration time.

       Not even one car in at thousand is driven enough to use forty gallons of gasoline or diesel per week. The few exceptions are virtually all taxi’s and delivery vehicles.

       Betcha the car dealers association is the other half of this piece of shit provision.

       Illinois has a major traffic and pollution problem……. and slowing down the adoption of electric cars, which will also be the first self driving cars, is going to make the problem worse.

    2. Why not just change the registration rules for all cars and trucks and you pay by last year’s mileage and the GVW of your vehicle, number of axles and tires. There is a pretty straightforward table that gives road damage per mile based on weight, axles and tires, so everyone pays based on the damage their vehicle does to roads.

       Not rocket science by any means. Legislators are dumber than rocks, it seems.

       1. Do you happen to have a link for the table?

          1. No,

             but based on papers I have read I imagine one could be created.

             Though perhaps not on further reading. Complex subject so perhaps some rocket scientists might be needed.

             A sample paper (I have not researched this more than a few minutes)

             https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/reports/tswstudy/TSWwp3.pdf

       2. Please do not insult rocks, they have been around a long time.

          1. True! And rocks can be gneiss… 😉

20. Nothing to worry about! This ship is named SAFER!

    https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/energysource/why-the-massive-floating-bomb-in-the-red-sea-needs-urgent-attention

    Why the Massive Floating Bomb in the Red Sea Needs Urgent Attention

    A floating storage and offloading (FSO) terminal less than five miles off the coast of Yemen has turned into a massive bomb—capable of explosion due to its contents and lack of maintenance. The risk of explosion increases by the day, and if that were to happen, not only would it damage or sink any ships in the vicinity, but it would create an environmental crisis roughly four and a half times the size of the Exxon Valdez oil spill.

    The consequences of that explosion and corresponding environmental devastation would likely be 1) to rupture the fragile aid-focused ceasefire in Hodeidah established under the December 2018 Stockholm Agreement; and 2) to accelerate the already dire humanitarian crisis in Yemen where roughly fourteen million people are on the brink of famine, surviving at the moment on international aid. There is nothing benign about this situation—even in a region with countless immediate needs, this matter is of the utmost urgency…

    …If immediate action is not taken to neutralize this bomb, the global economy may see a significant disruption to the flow of maritime commerce, the people of Yemen may experience the worst famine in over a century, and the world may, among other consequences, lose both a key area of marine biodiversity and the chance to study a rare coral system that has proved impervious to the rise in sea temperature. In other words, this is not a local matter, but one of truly global concern.

    Memo to Humans:

    There are no local matters any more.
    Either you guys get your shit together,
    Or I will push the reset button.
    Back to the ecology of 3.8 billion yrs ago.
    Restart evolution at the single cell level.
    And I will see what happens.

    Sincerely,
    Mother Nature

    P.S.
    The clock is running!

    1. EFredM, Mom Nature,

       War’nt no eco-logy 4.8 billion years ago. War’nt no planet.

       1. Well, while you are correct about, there warn’t no eco-logy 4.8 billion years ago in this solar system. My bad! Shoulda written 3.8 billion years ago. But as far as resets go, what’s a billion plus or minus among friends in a 13.8 billion year old universe.
          But I went and corrected it anyway! 😉

    2. Talking local problems are global, I’ll look forward to reading the next 2 parts.

       https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Americas-Achilles-Heel-Mississippi-Rivers-Old-River-Control-Structure?cm_ven=cat6-widget

       NAOM

21. I grew up in Amarillo Texas, an important site of helium production and storage. Helium was particularly common in the natural gas deposits of the Texas Panhandle. The medical uses of MRI (magnetic resonance imaging) are growing. Many institution covet the new super strength 7 Tesla Units. The availability of helium is a growing problem, likely to become worse. http://www.rockymountainair.com/blog/helium-shortage-effects-on-mri-machines/?fbclid=IwAR1v8kWdRZ-s3mosNlJQu8y4CJOeEEsU4SZGAbEXn9-omCM0zqO8EKgKgXk

    1. Can’t be wasting helium on medical devices! We need it for party balloons… fer criminies sake!

       From your link:
       In the past, there have been large exhaust pipes installed to MRI machines that release Helium after it has been used, so that it does not fill the room with the gas. These exhaust pipes are expensive to install and cause the loss of a precious and costly gas.

       That sounds like a really dumb idea. My guess is that in the future we will have more MRI machines like these.

       https://www.medgadget.com/2018/09/philips-helium-free-mri-system-combines-productivity-with-high-quality-imaging.html

       Philips has announced the launch of the Ingenia Ambition X 1.5T MR, the next offering in its portfolio of Ingenia MRI technologies. A core innovation of the Ingenia Ambition X system is Philips’ breakthrough BlueSeal fully-sealed magnet which contains less than 0.5% of helium compared to conventional systems and the helium doesn’t need to be managed. The result is the world’s first MR system to enable helium-free operations, reducing the chance of potentially lengthy, costly, and even deadly disruptions, and virtually eliminating the dependency on a commodity with an unpredictable supply. The permanently sealed helium means the system does not require a vent pipe and is 900 kg lighter than its predecessor, the Ingenia 1.5T ZBO magnet, lowering construction costs.

       Gee! Whooda thunk it! I just don’t understand why almost everyone seems to want to continue living in the past with obsolete technologies and unsustainable ways of doing things.

       Party on dudes!
       .

       

       1. My old Uni used liquid Helium but collected the gas in a large rubberised bladder for re-liquification and that was back in the 90s. Why cant this be done for MRI instead of venting? Cost can hardly be an excuse if the vent is so costly.

          NAOM

          1. I discussed the helium problem at an MRI conference more than 20 years ago, prior to my retirement from radiology. The manufacturers have been aware of the helium cost and have made progressive improvements over the years, including more efficient recirculation. The latest exciting development is the 7 Tesla. That is one strong magnet. Prior to digital radiography I was interested in the silver problem. https://www.mayoclinic.org/medical-professionals/neurology-neurosurgery/news/7-tesla-mri-pioneering-use-for-patient-care/mac-20449573

             1. Thanks, that certainly sharpens up the image, I wonder when they might shift to Nitrogen cooled magnets?

                NAOM

                1. An article that I wrote many years ago, long before the appearance of Magic Resonance Imaging. https://www.ajronline.org/doi/pdfplus/10.2214/ajr.131.5.926

                2. Thanks, that is certainly interesting especially the phosphors. It reminds me of an issue that I have on my mind. Are X-ray plates strictly orthochromatic and insensitive to red LED light? I ask because my vet has had issues with safe lights for his processing room. I am planning to order some coloured led lamps for myself and thinking of adding a couple for him to try.

                   NAOM

                3. My first exposure to an X-ray darkroom was in 1948. My last was roughly a half century later. There was low level red light which made it easy to handle the film.

                4. Thanks, I’ll give it a try and report. My darkroom experience has been with B/W printing with a red light and a little colour with a blackout.

                   NAOM

    2. Hey, MRI is big business. The US has a huge amount of MRI machines, yet is very unhealthy.

       Now if people ate properly, didn’t have their food, air and water with so many pesticides, herbicides, toxins, particulates and synthetic chemicals, got more exercise and kept their weight in the proper range; the huge amount of instrumentation, pharmaceuticals, heart attacks, diabetes, cancers etc, would just fade away.
       So give your emergency services a break and go eat a lot of vegetables instead of all that crap they call food now. I am sure they get tired of compressing chests and watching people foam at the mouth.
       You can have your cake and need helium too. Or skip the cake and save the helium.
       An ounce of prevention…

       1. Hi GF,

          You are generally correct, dead on, actually, about all the crap we eat and breathe and drink and even absorb thru our skin making us sick.

          And you are also dead on about obesity and the lack of exercise as well.

          And further more the evidence is overwhelming that you are right about the bad effects of agricultural chemicals on the environment as a whole. It follows that they are very bad for us naked apes, because the environment is our life support system.

          BUT it’s important to keep in mind that there is not much REAL evidence, of the sort accepted by medical professors respectable universities, to the effect that people in countries such as the USA suffer serious health problems as the result of eating the food we eat as the result of the trace amounts of pesticides found in our food.

          I’m not saying such evidence won’t emerge. We know that farmers and some other workers are suffering some very serious effects as the result of exposure to these chemicals, and I have known at least two or three people, over the years, who died as the direct result of such exposure. Another one, a close relative, lost the use of his legs for ten years as the probable result of long term organo phosphate poisoning, according to his physician.

          On the other hand, there is ample and indeed overwhelming evidence that any given individual is WAY BETTER OFF consuming adequate amounts of fresh fruits and vegetables, beans, grains, and other foods, including various meats and dairy products contaminated with these traces of pesticides, as opposed to eating a nutritionally less desirable diet, due to either a lack of sufficient money to buy a wide variety of organically produced foods, or the fact that such foods are typically unavailable, in adequate quantities, or available at all except in more prosperous communities.

          And there’s no way in hell we can give up industrial farming in the short or in the medium term, any more than we can give up oil in the same short or medium term.

          We’re in a hell of a fix. We starve in the short term, unless we continue with business as usual, even though business as usual, continued indefinitely, is going to kill us in the long term.

          The best advice, for people who have plenty of money, is to eat mostly organic foods, out of an abundance of caution, although the risk associated with trace amounts of pesticides is apparently trivial. It’ DEFINITELY trivial compared to obesity, lack of exercise, smoking, auto accidents, air pollution in some places, etc.

          The best advice for everybody else, all the people who don’t have money to spare, is to avoid highly processed foods, and cook and eat at home, which incidentally applies equally to richer people as well.

          There’s nothing wrong with meat or dairy or almost any other food, except such crap as soft drinks, potato chips, etc, if you eat them in MODEST amounts once in a while, even almost every day.

          But there’s no doubt that the healthiest diet, overall, is relatively light on meat and dairy and especially on such ingredients as added sugar, etc, and based more on fruits, vegetables, whole grains, fish, etc.

          Farmers aren’t selling the stuff that kills us, excepting well marbled steak, etc. The problem is all the crap food processing companies either add or remove.

          Brown rice hulls are very good for us….. but we tend to feed them to hogs and chickens, lol, and eat nutritionally stripped white rice……… ditto so called WONDER BREAD, etc. We feed the best part of the grain to livestock.

          1. I tend to agree with the above. But healthy living can give us more elderly patients and generally fails to prevent the high cost of terminal illness. https://www.acsh.org/news/2018/09/28/true-cost-end-life-medical-care-13454

             1. I look at this as a cultural and societal issue. At least in the US, talking openly and honestly about impending death is still taboo!

                Then we have a medical, pharmaceutical, and health insurance industry ruled by bean counters who are basically in the business of emotionally manipulating and financially exploiting patients and their families when they are at their most vulnerable state.

                To me personally it should be about quality of life and not simply extension at any cost. In a rational and empathetic society we should be willing to be up front and open about prognosis. I think palliative care for terminal patients who are deemed sound of mind should also include the option for legal physician assisted suicide!

                When the time comes, I can’t think of any more painless and humane way of exiting this mortal coil, than saying goodbye to friends and family and putting on a face mask and switching to breathing 100% N2

                I think a tank full of N2 is quite inexpensive…

                1. Fred gets it.

                   It’s quite common for the hospital bills to total up to a quarter of a million bucks, and occasionally even two or three times that…… for what? A week or two of misery, often in extreme pain, the mind fogged by drugs to the point serious thinking is impossible.

                   Families should get together and decide what is going to be done in such circumstances, well before the crisis arrives. There’s every chance that the old folks will decide to opt out of such expensive treatment, thereby leaving at least something in the way of material resources for their children and grandchildren.

                   In our family, we generally have “DO NOT RESUSCITATE” orders posted on the refrigerator door, or the bedroom door of our elderly family members…… there will be such a notice on my own door.

                   I don’t want to spend two or three weeks in a hospital bed, tied in place, in pain, my mind hardly even there anymore.. when opting out of that will mean leaving six figures worth of property and or cash to put one of the little kids thru med school a few years down the road.

                   THAT’S the way we are supposed to think and act. We rightly heap praise and medals on young men who sacrifice their lives to save others from fires or criminals, or defending our country.

                   Why should I, or anybody else, who has lead a long life, supported by friends, family, and community collectively providing me with all the comforts of modern life, be so selfish as to want a few more days of misery, when the cost of those days, diverted to useful purposes, can mean countless years of happy and healthy life for countless young people, especially innocent little kids?

                   A quarter of a million bucks is enough to vaccinate thousands of kids against a communicable disease, or provide a team of doctors working in a refugee camp with the medicines they need to save hundreds, maybe even thousands of lives.

                   But if we don’t plan ahead, sure as hell the younger folks are going to go along with spending five or ten thousand bucks a day to keep Momma alive for another week or two.

                2. Totally agree OFM. I’ve seen a family demand their elderly father in intensive care was kept alive via stomach tubes. He was miserable before and even more miserable afterwards. Died 6 weeks later.

                   For me, I’ve always said if in pain give me morphine and if that doesn’t work, a cyanide pill. But sounds like N2 might be the way to go. Thanks for the tip Fred 🙂

                3. It is somewhat controversial because it might be used for state executions.

                   https://www.livescience.com/62037-oklahoma-executions-nitrogen.html

                   Nitrogen is an inert gas — meaning it doesn’t chemically react with other gases — and it isn’t toxic. But breathing pure nitrogen is deadly. That’s because the gas displaces oxygen in the lungs. Unconsciousness can occur within one or two breaths, according to the U.S. Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board.

                   Nitrogen inhalation doesn’t cause the same panicked feeling that suffocation does, because the person continues to exhale carbon dioxide. Rising carbon dioxide in the blood is what triggers the respiratory system to breath. These levels are also responsible for the burning and pain that happens when you hold your breath for too long. Because the carbon dioxide levels in the blood never rise with nitrogen inhalation, these symptoms don’t occur.

                   Hypoxia, or a lack of oxygen, kills pretty quickly. According to the U.S. National Library of Medicine, brain cells start dying within 5 minutes of oxygen deprivation starting. Death follows rapidly.

                   But of course PETA doesn’t approve!

                   However, the World Society for the Protection of Animals lists nitrogen inhalation as “not acceptable” for animal euthanasia because loss of consciousness is not instantaneous, and dogs euthanized by nitrogen gas have been observed convulsing and yelping after falling unconscious.

                   Sorry, but that is 100% bullshit!

                   On the other hand you can buy nitrogen tire inflation kits…

                   https://www.aircraftspruce.com/catalog/lgpages/nitrogenTire2_12-01587.php?gclid=CjwKCAjwiN_mBRBBEiwA9N-e_swCh5kMPAWXw83q_VSpK3TigHitEHiHImn_a8atCxkBdXJ6FQez4BoCJJoQAvD_BwE

                   Cheers!

                4. Helium works too.

                   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inert_gas_asphyxiation

                5. There are things about humanity that I just do not understand. I get most of it.
                   But why it is not ok to end your life when you see fit, for any reason at all (no ones business), is just something that I don’t understand.

                   The only reason I can see to force someone to live who wants to call it quits, is for a punishment. Like to make a criminal live poorly caged in a cell, as punishment for their cruelty.

                   The taking of ones own life should be legal and easy.
                   Maybe at starting at age 18, which is the age at which we humans generally will put an automatic weapon into the hands of a young person and tell them to go kill other people.

                6. Twenty months ago, my siblings put my 92 year old mother in an assistance living apartment because they didn’t want to be bothered by her or help assist in her quality of life and independence. In the last year and a half she has told me on 5 different occasions she just wants to die.

                   Wednesday, I went to my mothers mailbox to pick up her mail. Only to find another 90 year old lady struggling to put the mailbox key in the hole. I light heartedly said to her “nobody ever said getting old was for sissies”. She pretty quickly responded back to me and said “I just want to die”.

                   Kudos to OFM and his father

                7. That’s the same as with my 94-year-old mother. We put her in assisted living because she has short-term memory problems and nobody in the family has the time or interest in taking care of her. However now she’s upset and angry a lot and says she wants to die. We just have to keep reminding her that only God is in control of when we leave this earth.

                8. “We just have to keep reminding her that only God is in control of when we leave this earth.”

                   Well, that’s one way to look at it, but I politely disagree wholeheartedly.
                   There is no reason why we ourselves shouldn’t take a role in this, and make our own decisions and the put our hands on the wheel.
                   Drive your own car, so to speak.

                9. We put her in assisted living because she has short-term memory problems and nobody in the family has the time or interest in taking care of her.

                   How Christian of you!

                   We just have to keep reminding her that only God is in control of when we leave this earth.

                   So you don’t have the time or interest in taking care of your own mother but you are fine with prolonging her misery by invoking the will of some imaginary deity!

                   And people wonder why atheists call Christians hypocrites!

                10. Well, I don’t know what you want me to tell you. There are so many senior care facilities and options available nowadays, why not use them?

                11. Because if your mother wiped your ass once, she did it a thousand times. You can do better Dan. Be a leader, not a follower.

                12. “If it turns out that there is a God…the worst that you can say about him is that basically he’s an underachiever.”

                13. Nope Dan, accident aside, I’ll die when I choose to. It’s difficult to understand why anyone would want it otherwise for themselves.

                14. My mom was in one of those memory care villages. It was relatively new [since she always demanded she live in new construction whenever she moved to a new residence] and quite nice. Eventually though her money ran out, her benefits alone couldn’t cover the cost. We had to put her on medical assistance, which made her transfer to a different facility not as good and then she was miserable. I vote politicians who defend the sanctity of all human life but I wish they would do more than just talk and get the cost of senior care lower.

                15. The Outsourced

                    There’s little real community left insofar as many of us have been commodified/institutionalized/outsourced to death.
                    It begins in childhood where ‘we’ are now sent to day-cares and elementary schools while both parents wage-slave to make ends meet (and so don’t have much in the way of time, money and opportunity to take care of the parents).

                16. The Bible informed us that God created all life. You shall be banished from entry into His kingdom if you take your own life or the life of another person.

                17. Make sense since 99%+ of all life that ever existed is now extinct. Ohh and the fact that the word ‘stoning’ and gods wrath is peppered in that book. Interesting stuff, so i guess only god is allowed to be a megalomaniac murderer lol

                18. Since humans are killing the planet and are already engaged in what amounts to mass suicide it looks like heaven is going to be rather sparsely populated…

                19. Yes you may very well be correct.

                20. Gene- that would be of interest if the bible, and god, weren’t made up/make believe.
                    You might want to go in to get a reality testing done on yourself.

                21. These days religion seems generally to be a sort of idiot test, Abrahamic religions particularly more so.

          2. “BUT it’s important to keep in mind that there is not much REAL evidence”

             ROFL. Of course not. The studies have been small. Surveys have shown no large studies. Who would fund that? Follow the money honey.
             Laboratory evidence of pesticides/herbicides causing frog mutations at very low levels were tossed out as completely wrong by entrenched scientists. Not skeptical, not questioned but worth further investigation, just tossed out as wrong with no real proof of it being wrong.

             Hail Monsanto! Hail Bayer! Hail the fossil fuel companies. Enjoy the Fascism. Anything can be justified from the injuring and killing of millions to the destruction of a world.

             I will take a quote from the TV series Kung-Fu. When placed into slavery by a crooked sheriff and judge to dig in a mine, the main character was asked when would they break free? His answer was “When you remember you are men.”

             When people remember who put them in this position and continues to keep them there, when they stop being afraid and get angry, then things will change. Until then they will continue to aid the enemy and be the enemy.

       2. MRI and Doppler weather radar, they’re the same thing. ?

          1. Tickling your protons with burst of multi-KW radio frequency radio pulses bothers you? Even at 7 Tesla the frequency (300 MHz) is way below Doppler radar and your microwave oven frequency.

22. http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/05/jared-diamond-on-his-new-book-upheaval.html?utm_source=pocket-newtab

    I haven’t read this yet, but I have read his previous books, and Diamond is a man who GETS IT.

    How likely do you think that is? That the whole network of civilization would collapse?
    I would estimate the chances are about 49 percent that the world as we know it will collapse by about 2050. I’ll be dead by then but my kids will be, what? Sixty-three years old in 2050. So this is a subject of much practical interest to me. At the rate we’re going now, resources that are essential for complex societies are being managed unsustainably. Fisheries around the world, most fisheries are being managed unsustainably, and they’re getting depleted. Farms around the world, most farms are being managed unsustainably. Soil, topsoil around the world. Fresh water around the world is being managed unsustainably. With all these things, at the rate we’re going now, we can carry on with our present unsustainable use for a few decades, and by around 2050 we won’t be able to continue it any longer. Which means that by 2050 either we’ve figured out a sustainable course, or it’ll be too late.

    So let’s talk about that sustainable course. What are the lessons in the new book that might help us adjust our course in that way?
    As far as national crises are concerned, the first step is acknowledge — the country has to acknowledge that it’s in a crisis. If the country denies that it’s in a crisis, of course if you deny you’re in a crisis, you’re not going to solve the crisis, number one. In the United States today, lots of Americans don’t acknowledge that we’re in a crisis.

    Number two, once you acknowledge that you’re in a crisis, you have to acknowledge that there’s something you can do about it. You have responsibility. If instead you say that the crisis is the fault of somebody else, then you’re not going to make any progress towards solving it. An example today are those, including our political leaders, who say that the problems of the United States are not caused by the United States, but they’re caused by China and Canada and Mexico. But if we say that our problems are caused by other countries, that implies that it’s not up to us to solve our problems. We’re not causing them. So, that’s an obvious second step.

    1. Yes to Jared Diamond. Thanks for the heads up OFM.

       1. Diamond thinks Agriculture was homo sapiens biggest mistake:
          http://discovermagazine.com/1987/may/02-the-worst-mistake-in-the-history-of-the-human-race
          It is pretty hard to disagree

    2. The Knowledge

       Insight to what’s going on
       Information keeps us strong
       What you don’t know can hurt you bad
       Take it from me you’ll be walkin’ around sad
       Cryin’ for a better day
       Until you educate for a better way
       So if you wanna be in control
       Ya gotta get yourself in the know

       Spreading vise don’t believe the hype
       You don’t find the knowledge in a pipe
       Too many lives go up in smoke
       It’s nice to laugh but don’t be the joke
       To get over get better
       Try to be the possessor
       Of the one thing we all need in life
       To succeed, take my advice

       One, two, three, four
       Prejudice: no
       Ignorance: no
       Bigotry: no
       Illiteracy: no

       Listen; it’s up to everyone
       If we’re gonna change the way the world is run
       The way to start is to rid the children of
       Prejudice and ignorance
       We’ve gotta teach our kids to read and write
       That’s the only way to win this fight for life
       Education is the goal so
       If you wanna be in the know
       Get the knowledge
       It’s the one thing we all need in life

       Get the point? Good, now let’s dance

       https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=janet+jackson+the+knowledge+mix&&view=detail&mid=17E0025BDA55B2A70EF917E0025BDA55B2A70EF9&&FORM=VDRVRV

23. According to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres:

    WORLD ‘NOT ON TRACK’ TO MEET PARIS CLIMATE ACCORD OBJECTIVES

    “We are NOT on track to achieve the objectives defined in the Paris Agreement,” he said. “And the paradox is that as things are getting worse on the ground; political will seems to be fading.”

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/un-global-warming-climate-change-1.5132888

    1. Yep! It is getting more and more unlikely by the day, that we are going to pull ourselves out of a global ecological collapse! Who knows, maybe if we just build more walls…

       https://www.sciencealert.com/experts-announce-koalas-are-functionally-extinct-here-s-what-that-means

       Experts Announce Koalas Are ‘Functionally Extinct’. Here’s What That Means

       And there are thousands and thousands of data points like this one that are being ignored and denied. The problem is, that when you connect all the data points the picture that emerges looks pretty grim!

       Cheers!

       1. I wonder if that makes humans functionally extinct since we are doomed if we do not move, pronto, from BAU.

          NAOM

    2. Well we seem to be on track for more and worse of the same. In February we had a snow storm that dumped over 2 feet of snow, crushing buildings and splintering giant trees. Shortly after that we had a ‘500 year’ flood that washed out roads. Then a few days ago we had a wildfire that burned the mountain side a couple of miles away. And ‘unseasonable’ 89F weather.

       I think it might be the plague of locusts next, or the frogs raining from the sky.

       1. Perhaps it’s time to daub the blood of a slaughtered sheep on the lintels and door posts to ensure that demonic forces could not enter the home.

    3. Are you libs going to apologize for tearing into Trump over leaving the Paris Agreement, even though it was obvious from the start the agreement was basically a scam that was never going to be effective? Leaving wasn’t such a bad thing now, was it?

       1. Steven, are all Trumpites as dumb as you? I believe they are.

          The message from the article posted by Doug was not that it was a scam, but that we are not doing enough to limit climate change.

          Guterres said countries were not living up to their commitments under the 2016 Paris climate agreement to keep the global temperature rise to below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

          What part of that statement don’t you and other Trumpites understand? Countries, like the US, and other countries are not doing enough. God, you fucking Trumpites are just so fucking stupid.

          1. Steven Haner is most likely a bot of some sort, but I encounter people every day who are possibly stupid enough to believe everything Trump says…. even after he has obviously and flagrantly caught in dozens of serious lies. But in most cases, their problem is not stupidity, it’s ignorance, pure and simple.

             People believe what they want to believe.

             It takes at least two or three figurative sharp chunks of hard thrown brick upside the head to get the attention of ninety nine point nine percent of the people of this country, excluding the small minority that is actually TECHNICALLY literate, meaning that this minority has a reasonably good understanding of the ABC’s of the physical sciences.

             Quite a few of my relatives believe in Trump. Their problem is NOT stupidity, it’s ignorance, plain and simple. They grew up in a time and place where they had a near zero opportunity to get a decent education.

             But the large majority of these uneducated relatives are actually quite decent people, people who work hard, who donate to the fire department, who help old ladies with their home maintenance, etc, who do all they can to make sure THEIR kids get the education they lack.

             And most of them have done rather well, considering the part of the country they live in. It’s a badge of shame in my family to be a renter, we virtually all own our own homes, even the poorest of us. This is not deny that some of us, including yours truly, own our own auto parts store in the form of a car sitting on cinder blocks, lol.

             When you see how life works out for the people that listen to the preacher, for the people who live according to the rules of the Baptist Church, and how things work out for those that disobey these rules, you come to understand that God and Jesus are on your side, in terms of results.

             These rules are actually pretty simple. It never ceases to utterly AMAZE me that people who categorically put down religious people never stop to think about WHERE THE RULES OF CIVILIZED LIFE COME FROM.

             By way of example, Thou shall not steal.

             Thou shall not commit adultery.

             Live within your means, and put something aside for a rainy day.

             Look after your kids and your old folks, that they may in turn look after you, when YOU need looking after.

             Pay Caesar what you owe him, and pay God what you owe HIM.

             Now of course there are OTHER institutions and people other than preachers who teach these values…. but never in such a consistent, determined fashion. Sure you can teach some ethics in a classroom…… at the expense of the time spent teaching math, history, biology, chemistry, civics.

             SURE, the organized church has been corrupt to a greater or lesser extent through out history, and there are plenty of preachers and priests of all stripes who should be tarred and feathered and then locked up for life.

             But before there was a state and federal safety net, there was the local church, and it kept the wolf away from many a door. An honest Baptist preacher spends a hell of a lot of time helping his church members, and does not live any better than the average of those members, and in my neck of the woods, he usually has a full time job in addition to his ministry.

             I don’t have any problem getting across that we should be good stewards of the Earth, when I talk to REAL Christians, the sort that take their Bible seriously.

             Such people support school lunch programs, and Medicare and Medic Aid, and programs that provide for those who cannot provide for themselves. They support clean air and clean water laws, once somebody explains to them the importance of such laws in words they can understand, without condescension.

             Of course they may also believe that abortion is murder……. I suppose that is their right, to believe what they choose to believe, about ethical issues.

             What I’m getting at is that badmouthing them unnecessarily isn’t good politics, isn’t helpful, in terms of solving our countless problems.

             Approach such people quietly and respectfully, one on one, in a quiet place, and you can often win them over to your positions on various public policies, such as single payer medical care, etc.

             Nothing I have said should be interpreted to mean that everybody who calls himself or herself a Christian actually IS a Christian.

             Somebody upthread chucked a parent into a nursing home, saying the family was TOO BUSY, and couldn’t be bothered, and told the old person life is up to GOD……… now that person is NOT a Christian, any more than Trump is a small d democrat, a person who believes in democracy and ethical government.

             1. Mac, I never intended to insult all Trumpites, just the vast majority of them. 😉 Many of my cousins are Trumpites, but not my immediate family, thank Posiden, or Thor, or Yahweh, or whomever.

                I understand your argument supporting Trump. No problem. But then you go off the fucking rails with this:

                These rules are actually pretty simple. It never ceases to utterly AMAZE me that people who categorically put down religious people never stop to think about WHERE THE RULES OF CIVILIZED LIFE COME FROM.

                Are you fucking serious? Do you actually think we get the rules of civilized life from religion? How about this one:

                Leviticus 25:44-46 ESV
                As for your male and female slaves whom you may have: you may buy male and female slaves from among the nations that are around you. You may also buy from among the strangers who sojourn with you and their clans that are with you, who have been born in your land, and they may be your property. You may bequeath them to your sons after you to inherit as a possession forever. You may make slaves of them, but over your brothers the people of Israel you shall not rule, one over another ruthlessly.

                Or:

                Exodus 21:20-21 ESV
                “When a man strikes his slave, male or female, with a rod and the slave dies under his hand, he shall be avenged. But if the slave survives a day or two, he is not to be avenged, for the slave is his money.

                Or:

                Ephesians 6:5 ESV
                Slaves, obey your earthly masters with fear and trembling, with a sincere heart, as you would Christ,

                And I could give you dozens of other verses supporting slavery, or murder, or the slaughter of children, or any other horrible crime to be committed in the name of religion.

                No, no, no, Fuck No, we did not get our morality from the Bible or from any religion. More crimes and atrocities have been committed in the name of religion than I can possibly name here. It would take a book.

                We got our morality in spite of the horrible morality handed us by the Bible.

                1. Our Bloodthirsty Bible:
                   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQFI66E12sU

                2. Thank you Ron!!
                   All the way.

                3. Ron, we pick and choose from all sources, as time passes, and hopefully we grow a tiny bit more CIVILIZED each generation, collectively.

                   SO…… you tell me which OTHER organization it is here in the USA that TEACHES honoring one’s parents, taking care of one’s neighbors and communities, paying one’s taxes, not going around murdering people, etc etc.

                   The answer is of course that you CAN’T because there ISN’T any other such organization, other than some such as the Boy Scouts, which has a relatively trivial membership. No other organization I have even HEARD of, with a LARGE following, has regular services where in such values are taught and encouraged.

                   The world is full of frauds, theives, conmen, physopaths, bad people of all kinds, and the church as a whole has plenty of all of these undesirables. All religions have such rotten apples as members, all political parties, all organizations of any kind, ditto.

                   All organizations, as I see it, exist because one way or another, they contribute to the survival of those who are members of them.The church has contributed mightily to the survival of many people, including numerous members of my own family and my own community, although this function is now fading away, as the welfare state/ safety net provided by the state and federal government grows a little bigger from year to year.

                   Washington and Jefferson were NOT less than good men because they owned slaves…….. slavery was during their time an accepted and every day practice, not long abolished even in countries such as England and France…… and still defacto practiced in both countries, with nobles controlling people living on their giant estates, etc, AS IF they were slaves.

                   Every society, or nearly every one, we look up to seems to have practiced slavery or something along such lines at some point in time.

                   I’m not actually trying to defend the church, or the people in it.

                   What I’m trying to do is to get anybody who will listen to understand that if you want the votes of religious people, the first thing you should do is quit badmouthing them in such a way as hardens their resolve to vote for Trump and his sort.

                   The people who understand our economic and environmental crisis are already with you. They don’t NEED to hear you or anybody else practice TRUMP TYPE HATRED, Trump type divisive politics, the politics of us versus them, badmouthing Christians. You are actually doing Trump’s work for him, at times.

                   WE NEED THE CHRISTIAN VOTE, in order to get rid of Trump type politicians, and hopefully put into office leaders who establish policies that will help us survive as a democracy and a free country…….. IF we survive at all. There’s a very real possibility that we have only another few decades , maybe even less, before the biosphere collapses…….. as you well know.

                   Like it or not, there are many tens of millions of at least NOMINALLY Christian people in this country, and that’s MORE than enough to swing MANY elections to the R party, especially in the south, where the R’s tend to dominate, and in rural areas all over the country as well.

                   I know many of these people, as you do.

                   I have never been able to get any of them to read this site more than a couple of times, even the ones who understand such concepts as peak oil, air pollution, etc, before they run across remarks characterizing them as nitwits, hypocrites, etc.

                   You are DRIVING them into the opposition camp.

                4. Mac, I am not going to argue with you about this shit. My point is we do not get our morality from the Bible. We get our morality in spite of the horrible morality of that book.

                   You are DRIVING them into the opposition camp.

                   No, people who have lost their ability to reason have always been in the religious camp… and always will be.

                5. SO…… you tell me which OTHER organization it is here in the USA that TEACHES honoring one’s parents, taking care of one’s neighbors and communities, paying one’s taxes, not going around murdering people, etc etc.

                   OFM, the fact that the vast majority of us don’t go around stealing or murdering each other has a lot more to do with primate evolution than it does with religion.

                   https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsoc.2018.00017/full

                   Evolutionary Origins of Morality: Insights From Non-human Primates

                   The aim of this contribution is to explore the origins of moral behavior and its underlying moral preferences and intuitions from an evolutionary perspective. Such a perspective encompasses both the ultimate, adaptive function of morality in our own species, as well as the phylogenetic distribution of morality and its key elements across primates. First, with regard to the ultimate function, we argue that human moral preferences are best construed as adaptations to the affordances of the fundamentally interdependent hunter-gatherer lifestyle of our hominin ancestors. Second, with regard to the phylogenetic origin, we show that even though full-blown human morality is unique to humans, several of its key elements are not. Furthermore, a review of evidence from non-human primates regarding prosocial concern, conformity, and the potential presence of universal, biologically anchored and arbitrary cultural norms shows that these elements of morality are not distributed evenly across primate species. This suggests that they have evolved along separate evolutionary trajectories. In particular, the element of prosocial concern most likely evolved in the context of shared infant care, which can be found in humans and some New World monkeys. Strikingly, many if not all of the elements of morality found in non-human primates are only evident in individualistic or dyadic contexts, but not as third-party reactions by truly uninvolved bystanders. We discuss several potential explanations for the unique presence of a systematic third-party perspective in humans, but focus particularly on mentalizing ability and language. Whereas both play an important role in present day, full-blown human morality, it appears unlikely that they played a causal role for the original emergence of morality. Rather, we suggest that the most plausible scenario to date is that human morality emerged because our hominin ancestors, equipped on the one hand with large and powerful brains inherited from their ape-like ancestor, and on the other hand with strong prosocial concern as a result of cooperative breeding, could evolve into an ever more interdependent social niche.

                   Chimps mourning the death of a fellow chimp
                   .

                   

                6. “Religion is an insult to human dignity. With or without it you would have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, that takes religion.” ~ Steven Weinberg

                7. That is priceless, and bears repeating-
                   “Religion is an insult to human dignity. With or without it you would have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things.
                   But for good people to do evil things, that takes religion.” ~ Steven Weinberg

             2. The first four of the 10 commandments seem to be all about protecting snowflake yahweh‘s fragile ego. And I like it when my neighbor covets my ass.
                … Two kids and a dog, just like the Bible says lol.

          2. Trumpsters is Tea Party’ers Ver. 2.0
             The trajectory seems to arc towards increased stupidity.

       2. You know, it doesn’t matter a jot if the Paris Agreement is right or wrong. It gave the USA the excuse to go industrial megascale. Start cranking out solar panels, batteries, wind towers etc by the millions creating so many jobs, in the process, that they would be advertising for asylum seekers who were willing to work as there would be more jobs than workers.
          It would have been an opportunity to send exports of renewable generation all over the world, become the leading giant in the field and develop influence world wide.
          Instead we get insulting tweets, tariff wars that hurt the American people and industry, creating distrust among allies and the potential of new wars. What astounding leadership! Trump has no nous for business and shows why he has bankrupted so many times – bankrupt casinos!!!

          NAOM

          1. Yep!

             BEIJING (Reuters) – China will never surrender to external pressure, the government said on Monday, though stopped short of announcing how Beijing will hit back after Washington renewed its threat to impose tariffs on all Chinese imports in an escalating trade dispute.

             The trade war between the world’s top two economies jumped up a gear on Friday, with the United States hiking tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods after President Donald Trump said Beijing “broke the deal” by reneging on earlier commitments made during months of negotiations.

             Trump also ordered U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to begin imposing tariffs on all remaining imports from China, a move that would affect about an additional $300 billion worth of goods.

             Guess who is going to be taking advantage of that opportunity to send exports of renewable generation all over the world, and become the leading giant in the field and develop influence world wide… Hint, it ain’t the US!

          2. Come now, Trump has only been bankrupt 6 times.
             Give the poor sociopath a chance! (sarc)

             1. Yet we pay him $400,000, along with a: $50,000 expense allowance; $100,000 nontaxable travel account, and $19,000 entertainment account.
                Plus provide housing, security, retirement benefits, and more. As well as let him expand his brand to the ultimate.
                Retirement benefits are $207,800 per year. Plus many other benefits including free medical.

                I wonder what review time will result in. Even if fired, he does not lose.

                1. Let’s see if he can get a 7th bankruptcy?
                   I think he has the talent.

          3. Wrong bucket, NAOM. The old system is still in power and growing by the day.

             You don’t understand the system. The power structure will not dismantle itself, instead it will continue to grab more money and power, consolidating until that is maximized. As long as the military is strong enough to protect the moneyed interests and BAU continues the rest of us can fall under the bus as far as they are concerned.
             Noticed increased international tensions? Notice more money moving toward legacy corporations, the rich and the government? What is a tariff? “Historically, the main objective of a tariff was to raise revenue. ”
             Who pays the tariff? We do, one way or the other and the government gets the money. It also supposedly “protects” domestic industry.
             But now it can be used to reduce industry by raising costs across the board and diminishing the cost advantage of a disruptive industry.
             “Consumers, whether businesses like Dutch cocoa butter makers or individuals who enjoy a tasty bar of dark chocolate, face higher prices and hence are the losers. The industry being protected, however, benefits by becoming more competitive and selling more of its wares. In addition, the government will gain a new source of revenue.

             The net effect boils down to whether any gains in the terms of trade are greater than the resulting “efficiency loss” – that is, how much the tariff artificially distorts consumption and production decisions in negative ways.”

             Key words “distorts consumption”.

             https://theconversation.com/what-is-a-tariff-an-economist-explains-93392?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIzZOP5NqY4gIVilMNCh3pswljEAAYASAAEgIPUvD_BwE

             And what better way to keep legacy oil in business while pumping large amounts of money into the military industrial complex than to keep stirring the pot in the Middle East?

             This is not about renewable energy or energy transistion. All those “stupid” things the government is doing is about power and money. Climate change is a sideshow that will be used to move money and power when the time is right.
             Not before. Doesn’t matter if half the US population is in the poorhouse. We have machines and technology to steadily replace them.

             1. Ten year old bull is starting to die.
                Possibly
                We shall see

                1. Recessions and stock market dips are about money moves, nothing else. Harm to the less well off is just a side effect.

                2. “You don’t understand the system”

                3. Yes, that is a quote from me. Now what do you have to say? I see nothing.

                4. “You don’t understand”

                5. Oh well, an attempt to get this above kindergarten level has failed. Poor HB is usually so verbose but seems to have a case of progressive early senility today.
                   Hope you recover soon.
                   Next quote will be ” You”
                   Then ” ”
                   🙂

                6. “Recessions and stock market dips are about money moves, nothing else”

                   “Insight to what’s going on
                   Information keeps us strong
                   What you don’t know can hurt you bad
                   Take it from me you’ll be walkin’ around sad
                   Cryin’ for a better day
                   Until you educate for a better way
                   So if you wanna be in control
                   Ya gotta get yourself in the know”

                   

                7. Yes, you do.

                   So I guess the stock market is about river flows or maybe the wind direction on Tuesdays and not money in your world. Tsk Tsk. You are having a difficult time today. Since you cannot express yourself today, one can hope for a quick recovery . It’s like trying to communicate with Javier. Feel better soon.

                8. Lets start with the word “Recession” which you claim is ” money moves, nothing else”

                   Wikipedia defined a recession this way- “In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction when there is a general decline in economic activity.[1][2] Macroeconomic indicators such as GDP (gross domestic product), investment spending, capacity utilization, household income, business profits, and inflation fall, while bankruptcies and the unemployment rate rise. In the United Kingdom, it is defined as a negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters.” I couldn’t find anywhere it saying a recession is “about money moves, nothing else”

                   If you were a 6th grader answering the definition of recession and I was the teacher. You would get an F.

                   Now let’s examine what a stock market dip or stock market sell off is by definition ?

                   A sell-off is the rapid selling of securities such as stocks, bonds, ETFs, commodities or currencies. A sell-off may occur for many reasons, such as the sell-off of a company’s stock after a disappointing earnings report, the departure of a important executive or the failure of an important product.

                   Again, nowhere in the definition of a dip or sell off are the words “money moves” used. The 6th grader now has two “F’s”.

                   The definition of stock exchange
                   also called stock market is a highly organized market facilitating the purchase and sale of securities and operated by professional stockbrokers and market makers according to fixed rules. A place where securities are regularly traded. Or as one who is not educated on the financial system might say it “moves money”.

                   “You don’t understand the system” and “talking out your ass”.

                9. HB continues his aberrations:
                   “The 6th grader now has two “F’s”.

                   The definition of stock exchange
                   also called stock market is a highly organized market facilitating the purchase and sale of securities and operated by professional stockbrokers and market makers according to fixed rules. A place where securities are regularly traded. Or as one who is not educated on the financial system might say it “moves money”.

                   “You don’t understand the system” and “talking out your ass”.
                   ”

                   Hmmm, the definitions you display all are indicators of money moves, yet you see them not or refuse to recognize them so you can bolster your position.
                   You truly are a simpleton HB, one who has a long history here of troublemaking and attack on other commenters. I hope some of them see you for what you are. A very weak, angry and vengeful person. Do you achieve some sort of ego boost by your attacks?

                10. “Recessions and stock market dips are about money moves, nothing else”

                    Please FishBait, tell us what that sentence means. Because I’m sticking with your quoted attack line.

                    “You don’t understand the system”

                    Your claiming I’m attacking you with your own words, maybe I just didn’t like how you attacked notanoilman

                11. HB since you have gone completely off track and are now making up things, plus using juvenile name calling, I will add you to the small list of ignored people.
                    So you can continue to make false attack claims, and call me “FishBait” or other grade school monikers to your heart’s content. I am sure the adults here will also ignore you.

                12. How Trumpian of you KingFish. All that needs to be done is for one to scroll up and read the comments above to prove you started the name calling with this:

                    “an attempt to get this above kindergarten level has failed. Poor HB is usually so verbose but seems to have a case of progressive early senility today”

                    I gave you a clear opportunity to explain yourself and show you weren’t “talking out your ass”, but you can’t and choose to put your cowardly head in the sand.

                    “Please FishBait, tell us what that sentence means”

                13. What does gonzo mean?

24. Embryology was one of my favorite pre-clinical medical studies. Unbelievably complex. It is interesting that the earliest “beating heart” seen on ultrasound studies is actually a beating tube, not a heart.

    1. Embryology of the heart. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2Q5kI8uXIs&fbclid=IwAR36Mo7Ewl4Kc1c5qD_oyOTMRgFNOEmKG3RsqIcoo-bsRDuEDb337bIUp8Y

       1. That reminded me of one of my favorite creatures. The amphioxus.

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lancelet#/media/File:BranchiostomaLanceolatum_PioM.svg

          1. EFredM,

             So you like Amphioxus. Here is the book for you:

             Across the Bridge–Understanding the Origin of the Vertebrates. Henry Gee.

             Gee is senior editor for palaeontology at Nature. The book is an excellent update on research into vertebrate origins.

             The exam will be a week from Wednesday.

             1. Amphioxus is always on the exam.

             2. E.Synapsid,

                The exam will be a week from Wednesday.

                No problem! I had a great zoology teacher. 😉

                BTW, I also like Ascidians and their reverse metamorphosis from free swimming larvae with a notochord to fully sessile filter feeder.

                https://www.mun.ca/biology/scarr/Garstang_Hypothesis.html

                1. EFM,

                   Gee deals with ascidians too, of course. It really is an excellent book. He even addresses a question I’ve wondered about for decades:

                   Ascidians are the only animals that can produce cellulose. That means that they must have the enzyme that allows them to break it down, something, again, that no other animal has that I know of. How has this come about?

                2. E Synapsid,

                   Ascidians are the only animals that can produce cellulose.

                   Apparently via horizontal gene transfer from ancient bacteria.

                   https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960982215015213

                   There are three classes of tunicates, Ascidiacea, Thaliacea, and Appendicularia (Figure 1), with over 2000 species of ascidians, about 72 species of thaliaceans and about 20 of appendicularians. They are called tunicates because the zooids are encased in an extracellular sheath or tunic, which unusually for animals contains cellulose, synthesized by a cellulose synthase that was evidently acquired in an ancestral tunicate by horizontal gene transfer from a bacterium.

                   I find the fact that they manage to concentrate Vanadium from sea water even more fascinating!

                   https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S187477871830165X

                   Abstract
                   Ascidians belonging to Phlebobranchia accumulate vanadium to an extraordinary degree (≤ 350 mM). Vanadium levels are strictly regulated and vary among ascidian species; thus, they represent well-suited models for studies on vanadium accumulation…

                   …Our recent study on Ascidia sydneiensis samea, a vanadium-rich ascidian, indicated that the vanadium concentration in the mixture of planktonic and bacterial contents from the intestinal lumen, i.e. intestinal content, can reach 0.67 mM, about 20,000-fold higher than seawater (Romaidi and Ueki, 2016).

                   I could see Elon Musk maybe investing in Ascidian aqua culture! 😉

                   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_hhTW2fFoM
                   Vanadium flow batteries to ‘revolutionise’ power industry

                3. This discussion thread is a fascinating topic. The Most of all, of course.
                   “Apparently via horizontal gene transfer from ancient bacteria.”

                   Imagine for a moment if you could hear the zipping and unzipping of DNA strands, and RNA strands as different tone, and transcription as a different tone,etc
                   It would be an incredible concert.

                4. Imagine for a moment if you could hear the zipping and unzipping of DNA strands, and RNA strands as different tone, and transcription as a different tone,etc
                   It would be an incredible concert.

                   Why imagine when you can actually listen to it! Ask and you shall receive 😉

                   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zgz71JIe4HI

                   What does DNA sound like? 07 DNA as Music

                   https://bmcbioinformatics.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12859-017-1632-x
                   An auditory display tool for DNA sequence analysis

                   Abstract
                   Background
                   DNA Sonification refers to the use of an auditory display to convey the information content of DNA sequence data. Six sonification algorithms are presented that each produce an auditory display. These algorithms are logically designed from the simple through to the more complex. Three of these parse individual nucleotides, nucleotide pairs or codons into musical notes to give rise to 4, 16 or 64 notes, respectively. Codons may also be parsed degenerately into 20 notes with respect to the genetic code. Lastly nucleotide pairs can be parsed as two separate frames or codons can be parsed as three reading frames giving rise to multiple streams of audio.

                   Results
                   The most informative sonification algorithm reads the DNA sequence as codons in three reading frames to produce three concurrent streams of audio in an auditory display. This approach is advantageous since start and stop codons in either frame have a direct affect to start or stop the audio in that frame, leaving the other frames unaffected. Using these methods, DNA sequences such as open reading frames or repetitive DNA sequences can be distinguished from one another. These sonification tools are available through a webpage interface in which an input DNA sequence can be processed in real time to produce an auditory display playable directly within the browser. The potential of this approach as an analytical tool is discussed with reference to auditory displays derived from test sequences including simple nucleotide sequences, repetitive DNA sequences and coding or non-coding genes.

                   Conclusion
                   This study presents a proof-of-concept that some properties of a DNA sequence can be identified through sonification alone and argues for their inclusion within the toolkit of DNA sequence browsers as an adjunct to existing visual and analytical tools.

                5. EFM,

                   Nice to know that ScienceDirect reads Henry Gee.

                   The book! The book!

                6. E Synapsid,

                   It’s on my list!

                   In the meantime a lecture by Dr. Gee.

                   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2VgNz8416cE

                   Inside Nature with Dr Henry Gee (UCL)

                   And a review of the his book!
                   https://inquisitivebiologist.wordpress.com/2018/12/13/book-review-across-the-bridge-understanding-the-origin-of-the-vertebrates/

                   Cheers!

       2. Thanks Robert. Amazing.

25. Here’s a nice little commercial battery powered electric vehicle.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Xg7f4ZRQvU

    100% Electric Ferry Crossing | Fully Charged

    1. Maybe you have put this one up before. If not, enjoy.

       First Cross-country flight in the Sunseeker Duo – June 2014
       https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBA4XeMddMY&t=282s

26. Back to EV’s.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pX768eAOnQ8&t=
    No one has yet to make EV cells in sufficient volume and quality in North America at forward looking costs.
    Me thinks Toyota put some pressure. Model Y could really dent Toyota’s sales.

27. Worlds 1st PV Powered Train.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1SafVI7vKs4

28. https://electrek.co/2019/05/13/tesla-final-offer-acquire-battery-company-maxwell/

    It’s looking like a done deal.
    Tesla is going to have more and more critical patents in the battery field than just about anybody else.

29. GERMANY’S AFD TURNS ON GRETA THUNBERG AS IT EMBRACES CLIMATE DENIAL

    “Germany’s right-wing populists are embracing climate change denial as the latest topic with which to boost their electoral support, teaming up with scientists who claim hysteria is driving the global warming debate and ridiculing the Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg as “mentally challenged” and a fraud.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/14/germanys-afd-attacks-greta-thunberg-as-it-embraces-climate-denial

    1. Fortunately most Germans, and for that matter their next door neighbors, the Austrians, do not support Neo Nazis, climate science deniers and other right wing authoritarian wackos! Only Trump thinks that there are good people on both sides.

       BTW, if the best they can do is attack a 16 year old girl with Aspergers, they have already lost in the court of public opinion!

       https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzbAOE4qfDw
       Yuval Noah Harari & Chancellor Sebastian Kurz in Conversation

       Note: This is a mixed English and German talk but if your German is not quite up to speed the Youtube closed captioned subtitles are quite good.

       Cheers!

       1. Meanwhile,

          CARBON DIOXIDE HITS A LEVEL NOT SEEN FOR 3 MILLION YEARS.

          “We’re racing toward a state very different from the kind humans evolved in and that civilization developed in,” said Ralph Keeling, a geochemist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, California.

          As the planet inches toward 500 ppm, scientists are sounding the alarm over the potential for catastrophic changes to our environment. “None of these specific numbers are really thresholds in the sense that anything particular happens when we cross them,” Gavin Schmidt, a climatologist who directs NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City, told NBC News MACH in an email. “But as we go through them, we are putting our foot on the accelerator of climate change, and impacts and damage will continue to rise.”

          https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/carbon-dioxide-hits-level-not-seen-3-million-years-here-ncna1005231

          1. I’m guessing 450ppm by 2032-2033
             Wonder what the Greenhouse gas equivalent will be by then?
             https://climatechangeconnection.org/emissions/co2-equivalents/

             Here is one way to look at sources (USA only)-
             https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/resources/us_greenhouse_gas_emissions_flowchart.pdf?_ga=2.55797163.1627106872.1557847184-1779024974.1557847184

       2. Hi Fred,

          You don’t need to hear this, I know you get it already. But a LOT of people don’t, and one thing I’m trying to do, posting in lots of places using various handles, is to get people who do get it, in terms of the sciences, get it as well in terms of day to day politics.

          There actually ARE good people on both sides, and we shouldn’t forget it.

          I’m not at ALL defending the “BAD ” people who KNOW THE SCORE, such as climate trolls, their paid mouthpieces, neo nazis, and that sort. They aren’t the good people on the wrong side I’m talking about.

          There are a LOT of good people, really decent people, good family people, hard workers, honest, the sort who don’t cheat and steal, the kind who look after their old folks and other peoples’s kids and pull their weight…….

          on the wrong side of the climate issue and some other issues.

          But it’s because THEY DON’T KNOW the real score.

          It’s hard, but it’s not impossible to get their votes, if you talk to one or two of them personally over a period of time, taking your time.

          Approach such people and talk to them respectfully without judging them, without making fun of their lack of education and intellectual sophistication, and you CAN win them over, given time.

          Even the dumbest hillbilly realizes that coal doesn’t grow back, and that the mines in my area are about as deep as they can ever get, while selling coal at affordable prices.

          And any ignorant old farmer understands that when there’s a surplus of any given crop, the price crashes, where as when that crop comes up short, he makes more money on half a crop than a good one, because the price shoots way up.

          He has no trouble understanding that the more wind and solar power we have, the cheaper coal and gas are going to be. Gas is the biggest single expense in manufacturing the nitrates he buys by the truck load.

          Take a few minutes and talk to him about THIS REALITY, with which he is well acquainted, and then it’s only a short intellectual leap for him to understand that even if he personally can’t afford one, electric cars and trucks are GOOD THINGS for him….. because when oil is in surplus, gasoline and diesel fuel are cheap…….. and he buys a lot of both.

          A mill worker who has to pay serious money, considering his wages, for water and sewer comes to understand that the reason a water treatment plant tends to cost so much to build and to operate is that people upstream, usually businesses, often dump nasty stuff in the river from which HIS city draws water….. and that if HIS CITY dumps sewage, everybody downstream has to pay double to clean up THEIR water…….

          It’s not hard for such a person to understand that it’s easier and cheaper for everybody to have good tough clean water laws…….. IF you explain this to him without bruising his ego.

          Putting trash in cans is always cheaper than picking it up.

          Avoid the cultural politics and talk about their own personal day to day lives and expenses, as a general rule, at least early on.

30. Robert Scribbler posted a video about US precipitation distribution and amounts.

    Climate Change Influence on Wettest 12 Month Period for U.S.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AgW_iaqqRt8

    1. Yep! We have been experiencing unseasonably heavy rains this past week down here in S.E. Florida.
       And had a tropical depression come through at the end of April, something that doesn’t normally happen until Hurricane season. Already lots of flooding and early increases in the mosquito population. There is another unsavory consequence that is rarely mentioned, a lot of highly polluted run off from roads, gardens and fields containing oil from cars, pesticides, herbicides, plastic trash, etc… which ends up being washed out onto our already stressed reefs!

       1. The artesian wells came back and are running like gangbusters. Local runs that normally dry up are now running all year round. No mosquito problem here, almost no insects. I did see one firefly a couple of nights ago! No bats so it’s safe so far.

          At least you don’t have landslides in Florida.
          Bridge of the Gods Landslide
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVZYzHGvDX4&t=3070s

31. I’m pretty sure OFM and I (and hopefully others who want to keep Trump from another 4 yrs), see eye to eye on the opening statement made by prez candidate Bullock-

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/14/opinions/steve-bullock-2020-trump-defeat-first-step/index.html

    1. Let’s hope the D’s have sense enough to give up the holier than thou circular firing squad habit they have developed over the last few months.

       I understand the frustrations of the various factions that ( usually with good cause) believe they have been cheated and shortchanged in times past by the party power structure, but these people MUST realize that the Democratic Party is simply not in a position to offer them what they want, anytime they want it. The D P as a whole must run candidates that are near enough the political center to win general elections.

       And for Sky Daddy and Sky Mommy’s sake, lets hope whoever gets the nomination for President is a person without a long baggage train reaching back decades. It does NOT matter whether such baggage is actually REAL or not, in political terms. The thing that actually MATTERS is what the electorate believes. The hard core D’s voted for HRC of course, but millions of people believed she was contemptuous of them, contemptuous of their values, didn’t really give a damn about THEIR problems, was corrupt, etc…. and either stayed home or voted for Trump.

       I couldn’t bring myself to vote for her, and didn’t need to, because Virginia was going D, without any doubt, and did, giving me the option of voting Green. There’s zero doubt that compared to DT, she’s an angel……. but that is no excuse for Cattle Gate, etc.

       The public that wanted to hear about her shortcomings had been hearing about them for DECADES…….. she was probably the ONLY D in country imo that Trump could have beaten….. being the only one really easily targeted with the LOCK HER UP strategy.

       It’s simple as shit. People hear what they want to hear, and are deaf to what they don’t want to hear, and believe what they want to believe. Only an idiot could possibly believe otherwise, in respect to the people at large. It’s literally impossible to over estimate the ignorance of the general public, when it comes to political issues.

       And elections in this country are won in the middle….. a shift of only two or three percent of the voters is generally enough to change the outcome, except in deep blue or deep red districts.

       So let’s hope like hell the D’s run somebody who has little or no easily exploited baggage, because the R’s are sure as hell going to go entirely rabid on the attack, as never before.

       There are plenty of well qualified D’s in the running, but some of them are ahead of their time, in terms of public acceptance. AOC is probably the best example.. she’s not electable, on the national stage, not now and probably not for the next ten or fifteen years…….. and of course she’s smart as hell and understands this is true, imo.

       She’s doing exactly the right thing, building out her credentials for higher office for when she’s even better known, in her late forties or fifties….. running for the Senate, or Governor of NY, etc, and for President of the country……… because by that time, the country will most likely have caught up with her.

       In effect, she understands where the country and the world are headed, and is out front, partly actually leading, partly just screaming FOLLOW ME. The people who are in her camp now will stay in it, and as more and more old farts die, and more youngsters start to vote, and environmental problems get to be worse and worse, etc, she is going to look more and more presidential.

       But right now……. she would be a liability if she were to try to help by showing up with at D candidate’s campaign events in the south or mid west.

       Maybe I’m wrong, but I will go to my grave convinced that the R’s gained control of the country because the D’s ( justifiably ) moved too hard and too fast trying to right too many wrongs ( as they see things) too fast, thereby leading enough voters who liked things as they USED TO BE to either stay home or actually switch to voting R.

       History teaches us to be careful about wishing for revolutions, because as often as not, or even more often, things are WORSE afterwards.

       If some of things that have come to pass as part of the modern liberal / Democratic Party alliance, such as recognition of gay marriage, etc, had been delayed a decade or two, enough of the old line conservative coalition may have passed on that the R’s would not have gained such solid control of so many local state and federal offices.

       So in this scenario, we would be farther along in terms of some extremely important policies, such as supporting renewable energy, strong pollution control laws, etc. Whether the country as whole would be better of is debatable. Certainly millions of individuals would be worse off, in their personal lives and circumstances…… but on the other hand…… hundreds of millions, including these same millions, would be in less danger of the country and the world suffering ecological and economic collapse.

       It’s worth mentioning that the R/ hard core conservative types that got what they wanted when they got Trump may yet regret it…. because the Blue Wave that took back the House may sweep in again and take back the Senate and the WH as well. The corruption associated with the current R party in general is hopefully finally beginning to sink into the consciousness of enough voters to get rid of them.

       And when we are finally rid of them, then we will see a lot of new laws passed, laws which encourage conservation, sustainability, renewable energy, truly affordable health care and higher education, etc.

       Let’s just hope and pray it happens soon enough to enable us to avoid a crash and burn scenario sometime over the next generation or two due to environmental destruction.

       1. It’s the Nazi authoritarianism in the grass roots that scares the crap out of me and Trump is spraying gasoline on it. 2020 is everything.

          1. The day has come that I totally and absolutely agree with HB.

             The foot soldier voters, the cannon fodder type of people who support Trump are actually very decent people, in many cases and nearly all respects, except that they don’t have a CLUE as to the real nature of our democracy and the rule of law.

             They just simply do not have a fucking clue as to what Trump and his cronies are up to, or what the consequences will be if they remain in power.

             It’s not really going to far to describe them as pet sheep being happily led to the slaughter pen by the farmer that raised them, holding some sweet smelling feed just out of reach. The only real difference is that slaughter follows immediately for the sheep. The foot soldier types who vote for Trump won’t even notice that they have lost their rights and freedom until some years, maybe even a decade or two, have passed. It will by then by way too late to do anything about it, other than pray for another revolution.

             I spent quite a bit of time for a period of years reading the history of Nazi Germany in particular, in an effort to understand how Hitler and his cronies came to power.

             It’s not so hard to understand why the people fell for the nazi propaganda, in the case of Germany, because that country was horribly mangled, economically and politically, as the result of WWI and the following punitive settlement, and in addition, was desperately short of material resources. Communications were primitive, compared to today, and once the nazis had control of the mass media, they were in a position to take over……. and they simply CREATED their own mass media.

             The people who formed the core of the nazi movement were super bitter, super angry, and super determined to punish those they perceived to be their enemies.

             The people who joined up were impoverished, scared, angry…… and determined to find scapegoats to blame for their troubles…… and like everybody everywhere all the time, they believed what they WANTED to believe……. and they wanted to believe in a leader who would restore them to their former happy state. They happily ignored all the warning signs that Hitler was a tyrant to be, being themselves too poorly informed to RECOGNIZE such signs.

             The atom bomb may one day be displaced from history as the invention that destroyed civilization by …………. drum roll……

             fucking TWITTER.

             Big Brother’s ever present spy system is not limited, these days, to one’s home and public places. It’s in the collective pocket or purse of nearly everybody, and those who have drunk the kool aid have theirs channel locked onto the real dt.

             The situation here in the USA now is parallel to the one in Germany post WWI, the biggest difference being a matter of degree.Hitler was a seed that fell into fine rich soil. Trump fell onto stony ground, but he took root and thrives anyway.

             1. You know the Hitler Nazi comparison is taboo, but in my view it is right on. Russia and FoxNews are manning the tiller and cultivator.

                1. To cheer things up I like to state that Trump is actually more like Mussolini than Hitler, a big buffoon who will end up badly after making a really big mess. I look forward to the scene at the gas station.

          2. Thanks for pointing out what is at risk HB and OFM.
             I couldn’t agree more.
             The roots of extreme ugliness are being cultivated. And these are the good times- there is still plenty of energy, food, and jobs.
             When things get tough (and they will), lets just hope (and vote) that we don’t have idiots or manipulators or haters in positions of leadership.

             1. Wow,

                I never thought HB and OFM would agree on anything.

32. New Jersey state heating degree days (HDD) have fallen dramatically since 1895, 6F (3.3C) warmer on average during the heating season. This is not a continental state where one might expect a faster rate of temperature rise but an ocean state that is well moderated by ocean temperatures.
    The range 2600 (1904 high to 2012 low).

    

    1. GoneFishing,

       That is one disturbing chart.

       Off topic: Why do you think milk snakes have disappeared? You mentioned a while back that they used to live there, and they’re pretty adaptable.

       1. “That is one disturbing chart.” ~ Synapsid

          Yes, but solar panels and electric vehicles.

       2. Synapsid,
          Yeah, the heavy pollution after WWII into the 70’s cut back the HDD loss but it has resumed since then.

          As far as the milk snakes and snakes in general, I have described my area as a green cemetery. The bottom fell out and much of the higher life forms faded away.

          1. “I have described my area as a green cemetery. The bottom fell out and much of the higher life forms faded away.” ~ GoneFishing

             Yes, but electric commercial vehicles.

    2. Data for US L48 from 1960 to 2015 data from link below for HDD and CDD (C=cooling)

       https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-08/heating-cooling_fig-1.csv

       

       1. Those are pretty big changes for 50 yrs timeframe.

          1. In 50 years that will look small.

             NAOM

             1. Exactly what I was thinking.

33. Hi all,

    We decided to forgo the Open Thread Non-Petroleum Post this week because Islandboy’s post has only been up for 5 days.

    1. Thank you, Dennis.

34. You science types will be relieved to know that 56% of Americans believe that Arabic numerals should not be taught in our schools. This falls firmly into the “you can’t make this stuff up” category.

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/5/13/1857360/-Poll-says-that-56-of-Americans-don-t-want-kids-taught-Arabic-numerals-We-have-some-bad-news?detail=emaildkre

    1. Hilarious! They did worse than chimps would have. LVI vs. L

    2. For interest to this site we see that 68% of Americans know that oil, natural gas and coal are fossil fuels. The other 32% don’t believe they are fossil fuels.

       What Americans Know About Science
       By Brian Kennedy and Meg Hefferon

       https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2019/03/28/what-americans-know-about-science/

       Americans’ knowledge of specific facts connected with life sciences and earth and other physical sciences varies, of course. About eight-in-ten (79%) correctly identify that antibiotic resistance is a major concern about the overuse of antibiotics. A similar share (76%) know an incubation period is the time during which someone has an infection but is not showing symptoms.

       The most challenging question in the set: What are the main components of antacids that help relieve an overly acidic stomach? About four-in-ten correctly answer bases (39%).

       Americans give more correct than incorrect answers to the 11 questions. The mean number of correct answers is 6.7, while the median is 7. About four-in-ten Americans (39%) get between nine and 11 correct answers, classified as having high science knowledge on the 11-item scale or index. Roughly one-third (32%) are classified as having medium science knowledge (five to eight correct answers) and about three-in-ten (29%) are in the low science knowledge group (zero to four correct answers).

       There are striking differences in levels of science knowledge by education as well as by racial and ethnic group. Men tend to score higher than women on the science knowledge scale, but gender differences are not consistent across questions in the scale. And political party groups are roughly similar in their overall levels of science knowledge, although conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats tend to score higher on the scale than do their more moderate counterparts.

       1. Sad. And lets remember its not just science.
          Its history. And all the other major subjects.
          Our current president would fail miserably at any of these kind of tests.

35. Gonzo Means Bizarre or Crazy

    “plus using juvenile name calling…” ~ GoneFishing

    “Polly, no more crackers for you.” ~ GoneFishing

    “CM, you have all the attractive characteristics of a lamprey.” ~ GoneFishing

    “I was just asking because recently I looked at some old comments. In the past you must have changed your posting name from ‘MarbleZeppelin’ to ‘GoneFishing’?…

    ‘MarbleZeppelin’ would make multiple messages a day for hours at a time. Then he got in an argument with Ron Patterson and promised to leave for good.” ~ Kelsivictor

    “You can dish it out but you can’t take it as proved by your reaction and your slurs.” ~ GoneFishing

    “Slurs? Fuck you. Tell you what, I’ll disappear and stop irritating you.” ~ Doug Leighton (last comment apparently)

    First time:

    “Gonzo means bizarre or crazy. Look it up. See education helps you to not sound so lame and offensive.” ~ GoneFishing

    “Gonzo’s a fun mod of GoneFishing and I always call you that” ~ Caelan MacIntyre

    Yet again:

    “Gonzo means bizarre or crazy.” ~ GoneFishing

    1. TL;DR — GoneFishing is a massive raging asshole who causes people to stop visiting this website.

       Caelan, you ever look at the comment sections from 2013-2015 and wonder where all the people went?

       1. The ignore button is priceless. I’ve punched it for thekrell, lol.

          1. Krell brings up a valid point about how ‘we’ attack and alienate people. Many of us are guilty of poor behavior in this regard, at times.
             Please call me out on it when I do it. Some of us need reminders to be ‘right-minded’.
             I have to give very high marks to Dennis, who refrains from personal attacks, and comments in rational ways when he chooses to engage. Sets a very good tone for this platform.

             1. “I have to give very high marks to Dennis…” ~ Hickory

                ass-kiss·ing
                /ˈasˌkisiNG/
                vulgar slang•North American

                noun: ass-kissing; noun: ass-licking

                1.
                the use of flattery or other obsequious behavior in order to gain favor.
                ‘a master of ass-kissing and flattery’

                adjective
                adjective: ass-kissing; adjective: ass-licking

                1.
                using flattery or other obsequious behavior in order to gain favor.
                ‘a bunch of ass-kissing sycophants’

                ?

             2. Yeah, Dennis has done a fine job of running the blog. By separating the two areas most of the trolls, attackers and mockers ended up on this side of the site. Which is good since the oil side can run their numbers without much interference. The non-petroleum side now has so much “noise” that not much actual discussion occurs. The whole system is developing high levels of noise, so this just models “civilization”.

                Enjoy the warmth.

                1. I suppose that’s what can happen when we artificially separate/overspecialize things, speaking of so-called ‘civilization’.

                   I wonder if the petroleum-side crowd still has roughly the same participants as it did when the site split.

                   But hey, it’s just one site in many to enter, leave and maybe return, and create our own noises and signals and everything in-between– as ‘defined’ by whoever.

                   Speaking of which, oh those damn non-renewable renewable energy attackers, ay? They have to be working for the Koch brothers. There’s no question about it.

                2. Quack, quack, oink, oink.
                   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VskbwXTRL7U

       2. That Extra Bulging

          TheKrell, if recalled, around 2015, Peak Oil Barrel split, apparently via Dennis’ decision, essentially into two separate arteries– petroleum and non-petroleum– thereby, arguably, crimping the possibilities of the ‘cross-pollination of ideas’ while helping to ‘narrow the focus’. Some likely were pleased while others weren’t. Some may have left for that reason, among others, like the reason you cite.

          As for some people, they may not appreciate getting an intellectual boot up their asses once and awhile, so the ignore button can also be leveraged as a way of putting on armor under their underwear or diapers, as the case may be. One can quietly use the ignore button and leave it at that, but announcing the ‘extra bulging’ can of course function as a form of ‘social posing’ or ‘virtue signalling’ or whatever you want to call it…

          As a potential and convenient underscore of my point about ‘social posing/virtue-signalling’ (and maybe even an example of one who may be more prone to it), kindly notice what Hickory has just offered up.

          As for the invective term, asshole, I would respectfully recommend a potentially better one; hemorrhoid, since the asshole provides indispensable functions and as such is largely underrated and underappreciated.

          1. What Is “Virtue Signalling”?
             https://youtu.be/sAmM872874A

             1. There is a wikipedia article about it. It seems to be a phrase from evolutionary psychology that refers to some kind of competitive display of fitness, but that’s being generally misused.

                My sense is that it’s used as an adhominem attack, and that it’s a way of dismissing arguments by “liberals” by suggesting that the person in question doesn’t really care about the environment etc., but just wants to look good.

             2. Ignore-Button Signalling

                How about what is ‘(socio)psychological manipulation‘?

                My point/interest is simply the difference between using it quietly (in the background) (and/or just selectively passing over comments or not spending as much time on the forum in general) versus using it conspicuously (or not using it at all but claiming to) on the forum.

36. From The Archives

    “We could surround tigers in cages, in zoos and throw Monsanto meat to them through the openings and call that era the best time to be a tiger, and the least violent ever, but it would be artificial and out of context.

    We could turn the world into a park, like a golfcourse, drain the marshes, with lawns everywhere, self-domesticate ourselves into relative uselessness, overdependence and a precarious existence. Into oblivion. With dental benefits. Turn the entire planet into a zoo. And have nothing left worth living for as we pace, psychotically, back and forth in our cages, in our workplaces.

    This state (de)construct may prove a blip in our free-roaming, hunting and gathering history, but a decisive one:
    Should we be so lucky to return there once again. Because if we can’t get our acts straight, this is where we’ll end up. And it will be an improvement because we’re already dying.” ~ Caelan MacIntyre 2015

    “Caelan is the only one around here who digs up stupid old comments” ~ HuntingtonBeach

    1. No comment. ‘u^

37. For anyone who has some time to dig into a very interesting issue- the Mississippi, and its vulnerability to a big change, there is a great 3 piece write-up on it.
    Here is a link to the 3/3 posting, with the 1st two parts linked at the bottom of that article.

    https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/If-Old-River-Control-Structure-Fails-Catastrophe-Global-Impact?cm_ven=cat6-widget

    1. Worth the read and very worrying. Shows the power of thinking in a rut.

       NAOM

38. Sorry for posting from ZH, it’s more entertainment, but they do seem on point with a small % of Posts.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05-14/irreplaceable-chip-bricking-out-warranty-teslas
    There is a solution for this, extend the Lemon law and fewer models. Again, there are just too many short-run propriety autos and parts. Didn’t Scotty on Star Trek have the same problem with the Enterprise? Oreily’s auto parts is one of the few stocks that outperformed Amazon in the last 5 years. Give any new or used car salesman hell about this and enhance his/her complex. F#cking with car salesmen was one of Steve Job’s favorite pass time. Consolidation of the car business has destroyed any accountability they once had to the customer experience.

    1. I never tire of ranting about computer controlled devices that either can’t be repaired, or can only be repaired by super high priced dealership shops.

       Given that I avoid such places religiously, as a matter of principle and and economy, I’m currently refurbishing a 1985 Ford four by four pickup……. one of the last generation built to real old time tough and simple mechanical standards.

       It will be my last light truck. Sure it’s going to pollute a lot, per mile driven, but it will ONLY be driven when I NEED a truck, maybe once a week these days, and sometimes not at all for weeks at a time. There’s only a couple of little magic boxes on it, and I can get spares at any auto parts store. I can still easily get any spare part needed even for fifties vintage Ford and Chevy pickups, although some of them take are a couple of days in shipping.

       I could keep this eighty five running, making an occasional repair, and eventually overhauling the drive train, for another twenty or thirty years of regular use, WAY cheaper than I could buy a new truck with similar hauling and off road capabilities.

       If I were God, every thing sold would come with a complete service manual, including every detail needed to perform any and all troubleshooting procedures and repairs. Period. No comprehensive manual, no sale. The only exception would be that things selling for less than a certain inflation adjusted price would be exempt………. say somewhere between fifty and five hundred bucks.

       Manufacturers would have to post bonds for every washing machine or refrigerator to guarantee all service parts will be available for a minimum of twenty years. I see half a dozen basically like new washers and dryers at the dump every trip…… because one tiny little part has failed, and it’s cheaper to just trash an appliance that’s still basically like new in every other respect, and get a new one, than it is to fix the old one.

       I had to throw out a washer myself recently that was only three years old, and barely out of warranty, because fixing it was going to cost at least two hundred, maybe twice that…… and it would STILL be out of warranty, and apt to fail again.

       If it had been a chainsaw, or garden tractor, or older truck, etc, I could have fixed it myself…….. but there are so many variations in electronically controlled machinery, and parts are so hard to get, that a layman really doesn’t have a prayer anymore. You have to be a semipro at least, and have access to dealer only parts at dealership prices.

       My local small equipment dealership is selling parts at ten times what they cost the dealer…….. I can by the same IDENTICAL parts, same name brand, same package, on the net for fifteen cents on the retail dollar……. if I buy a carton or case. There’s at least ONE good reason the dealerships have to stock at least a couple of hundred different blades for lawnmowers, or at least be able to get them overnight…….. the manufacturers puts so many different ones on because it makes it hard to impossible for independent shops to compete with the dealerships.

39. https://www.nbcnews.com/health/womens-health/birth-rate-u-s-falls-lowest-level-32-years-cdc-n1005696

    The entire article is based totally and completely on the traditional growth is good and growth is everything argument…….. the authors not even mentioning the environmental consequences of our large population.

    It’s true that we are going to have to work out ways to look after old farts such as myself as the birth rate declines……. but any HONEST AND EVEN REMOTELY ETHICAL , EVEN HANDED journalist would have at least mentioned that the fewer children we have, the greater the inheritance of each one, this inheritance ranging right across the board from open spaces such as parkland and natural resources such as minerals and fresh water to highways, water and sewer systems, the electrical grid, houses, schools, and a zillion other pieces of durable infrastructure…… such that little new construction will be needed, in relative terms.

    I don’t know about other folk, but if I were young again, I wouldn’t mind at all being able to buy a very nice house dirt cheap because lots of old folks have died and left enough such houses empty that they sell for peanuts! I wouldn’t mind paying highway taxes only to maintain existing roads, not having to pay for new ones!

    A refurbished school building is just as good as a new one, properly updated…… and the updates generally don’t cost even half as much as new construction.

    ETC ETC.

40. We do live in some very interesting times! Both the best and the worst!

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/may/15/cambridge-scientists-create-worlds-first-living-organism-with-fully-redesigned-dna

    Cambridge scientists create world’s first living organism with fully redesigned DNA

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1192-5

    Abstract
    Nature uses 64 codons to encode the synthesis of proteins from the genome, and chooses 1 sense codon—out of up to 6 synonyms—to encode each amino acid. Synonymous codon choice has diverse and important roles, and many synonymous substitutions are detrimental. Here we demonstrate that the number of codons used to encode the canonical amino acids can be reduced, through the genome-wide substitution of target codons by defined synonyms. We create a variant of Escherichia coli with a four-megabase synthetic genome through a high-fidelity convergent total synthesis. Our synthetic genome implements a defined recoding and refactoring scheme—with simple corrections at just seven positions—to replace every known occurrence of two sense codons and a stop codon in the genome. Thus, we recode 18,214 codons to create an organism with a 61-codon genome; this organism uses 59 codons to encode the 20 amino acids, and enables the deletion of a previously essential transfer RNA.

    I’d like to listen to both the original and the modified version.
    http://peakoilbarrel.com/electric-commercial-vehicles-a-ten-year-update-part-3/#comment-676662

    1. Huh.

       I wondered when this was going to happen.

       That’s quite something!

41. You should always be careful what you wish for, because you may get it.

    https://www.chicagotribune.com/columns/steve-chapman/ct-perspec-chapman-abortion-alabama-roe-supreme-court-20190515-story.html

    Over the last couple of years, I have known at least a dozen people at least well enough to say hello who have died ……. all of them at least middle aged, most of them even older. People of this sort are the foot soldier cannon fodder base of the Republican party, the people that make it possible for the R’s to OWN so many rural communities and small cities all over the south. Virtually every last one of them was at least nominally a practicing Christian, in the sense of attending church at least once in a long while, having family funerals at the old family church, interment in the church cemetery, weddings in the church, etc. Maybe half of them were SERIOUS Christians, the sort that attend most of the time and take the dogma and doctrine seriously, for instance refraining from using alcohol on religious grounds.

    No more than half of these deceased older folks children take the church as seriously as their deceased parents took it…….. and of the grandchildren, some of them now grown up with kids of their own, less than quarter of them attend church other than on special occasions.

    I can’t think of a single YOUNG person I ever met personally who has died within the last two years, excepting one accident victim.

    The R’s have made tons of hay out of the abortion issue every year since I was a kid.

    But by 2020, or 2024 maybe, it’s going to blow up in their hands like a grenade.

    WOMEN are taking over, politically, at the ballot box, and women less than middle aged today aren’t going to support the R’s who support outlawing abortion. Half of all the old women who support outlawing abortion will either be dead or in nursing homes by 2028. By 2032, their voting age grand grand daughters and great granddaughters will have for all practical purposes forgotten what they looked like, what they believed in, how they lived. Grandmother and Great Grandmother will cross their minds only when the old photo albums are dusted off, or when the lawyers call everybody together to settle estates.

    The younger grand daughters will never own a new ice car.They will be buying new houses with solar panels installed during the construction process. They will laugh at most of the men who try to establish relationships with them, because they are as a group going to be much better educated than those men.

    If they marry down, economically, as most of them will HAVE to, if they want to get married, then they will be wearing the financial pants and making the big decisions.

    Times are changing.

    Fear of change, hatred of change, is one of the key motivating factors of Trump voters. They can delay it, but it’s baked in, demographics alone guarantees it.

42. I’m throwing out a challenge to Fred M and anybody else who can spot some small revisions to the lead post. If you can spot them, wanna guess why?

    1. I see I will have to take a copy of your articles, when they first come out, so I can run a diff on them 🙂

       NAOM

43. https://electrek.co/2019/05/16/tesla-completes-maxwell-acquisition-battery-technology/

    It’s a done deal, Tesla now owns the intellectual property rights of one of if not the foremost companies in the super capacitor biz, plus whatever Maxwell has in the way of new battery tech, which may be a hell of a lot.

44. Hi Islandboy,

    I am in no condition to spot anything at the moment. I’m trying to recover from a 560 mile drive I went on yesterday, mostly in heavy rain and the last 50 miles or so in bumper to bumper traffic. To be clear I rarely drive more than 50 miles a week. So this took a lot out of me. BTW, I rented the smallest car I could find, a Ford Fiesta and spent less than $40.00 in gas for the entire trip. That’s about 14.5 gallons total at current prices for regular gas in Florida, or over 38.6 highway mpg. At 20 lbs of CO2 per gallon my carbon footprint for the trip was about 290 lbs of CO2.

    Normally my weekly carbon footprint for driving is about 40 lbs. of CO2. So this one trip was equivalent to about 7 weeks of my normal carbon footprint.. For comparison the Average American drives 260 miles per week and at an average mpg consumption of 24.7 mpg or roughly 10.5 gal per week equivalent to 210 lbs of CO2 .

    I did look into renting an EV but couldn’t find one available. Hopefully in the future that will change!

    Cheers!

    1. Maybe we don’t have any lawyers present here. As it turns out, my brother in law was a IP attorney with British Telecom in the UK before he retired and I recently sent the links to the articles to my sister, asking that he look at them and give me an opinion on the use of the pictures. He gave me some advice and on his advice, I have replaced some of the pictures and added attribution, copyright owners and links to the copyright owners originals where I can find them. It’s slowing me down but I fell there might be some scum out there who just look for copyright infringement and try to extract a pound of flesh if they can. Sorry if that’s my opinion of some lawyers but, it is what it is!

       On the other hand, if I made a living taking pictures, as professional photographers do, I might think differently.

    2. Hi Fred did you try Turo for renting an EV?

       https://turo.com/search?country=US&defaultZoomLevel=11&endDate=06%2F09%2F2019&endTime=11%3A00&fuelTypes=ELECTRIC&international=true&isMapSearch=false&itemsPerPage=200&latitude=25.7616798&location=miami%20FL&locationType=City&longitude=-80.1917902&makes=Tesla&maximumDistanceInMiles=30&models=Model%203&region=FL&sortType=RELEVANCE&startDate=06%2F01%2F2019&startTime=10%3A00&type=6

       Cheapest Model 3 I could find in Miami was $81/day, so quite expensive. Nice car though.

       Actually I get $73/d at Enterprise for a Hyundai Elantra so maybe the Turo option is not bad.

       I tried it for a day to test drive a Model 3 because test drives were not available last summer when I was hoping to get a Model 3, I was a little surprised that I was expected to return the car fully charged, just like returning with a full tank of gas, so I had to pat an extra 10 bucks or so at the end for charging the car.

       It is a little harder to “fill up” right before dropping off unless the drop off is right next to a supercharger or at a destination charging site.

       At a supercharger it is typically about $11 to charge the car, about 20 cents per kWhr in most cases and typically about 55 kWhr to charge from 20% to 90% (typically you don’t want to go below 20% or above 90% as it hurts battery life). I am assuming a long range battery with 78 kWhr total capacity (310 miles range if one travelled from 100% to 0% SOC), the more realistic range (100% to 20%) would be about 250 miles.

45. Lawrence Livermore Nat Labs put out this 2017 energy chart for the USA.
    Others (GF I think) have pointed out that in transition to an electrified energy system, we don’t have to come up with so much energy since there is so much waste energy in the use (burning of) fossil fuels.
    This chart shows that magnitude well.
    https://cleantechnica.com/files/2019/03/Energy_US_2017-1.png

    Despite this, we have a massive mountain to climb, and have only taken the first 12 steps. Giddy-up.

    1. Here is one from 2018

       https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/assets/images/energy/us/Energy_US_2018.png

       and 2011

       https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/assets/images/energy/us/Energy_US_2011.png

       Interestingly Energy Services has gone down while Rejected Energy has gone up!

       NAOM

       1. Wow, rejected energy has gone way up in percentage and the base is larger now. Yikes.
          I wonder if it’s a new accounting method or a real change.

          1. Reading the fine print at the bottom of the 2017 version declares they made major changes in defined efficiency for the calculations. So the new lower results are not changes in the real world.

       2. Thanks for the updated chart.
          The two biggest sectors of ‘rejected’ energy shown is transportation and electrical generation.
          Transportation sector energy rejection can obviously be vastly improved with electric vehicles.
          Electrical generation sector can be improved by-
          1. Continuing to cut down on coal burning, and secondarily nat gas burning
          2. Increasing solar and wind percentage (I hestitate to add hydro given the best sites have been used and the severe environmental downside)
          3. More local (distributed) generation so as to cut down on transmission losses. Such as rooftop or community level PV.

46. The Dangers of Denialism
    Keith Kahn-Harris explains the difference between denial and denialism.

    ‘Denial is when someone avoids acknowledging something they know to be true.’

    https://www.cbc.ca/radio/ideas/the-dangers-of-denialism-1.5140231

    1. Yep, tremendous amounts of “noise” in the system and the signal is getting lost. The new Tower of Babel electronically stimulated.

47. Bad news islandboy, liberals have won the election in Australia. More coal and ff to come for at least the next 3 years.

    1. And what exactly does ‘Liberal‘ mean in the context of Australian politics?!

       Scott Morrison was raised in the Presbyterian Church,[76] which partly merged into the Uniting Church when he was a child. He later became a Pentecostal, and now attends the Horizon Church,[77] which is affiliated with the Australian Christian Churches and the Assemblies of God.
       Source Wikipedia

       Just what the world needs, another religious nut in power!

       At least vote someone into power who worships the Aboriginal Great Creator Serpent!

       http://www.godchecker.com/pantheon/australian-mythology.php?deity=RAINBOW-SNAKE

       1. The guy is a nutjob.

          How does that bode for the people that voted for him?

          Sad times.

    2. Yup, just checked in at reneweconomy.com.au. Another victory for Rupert Murdoch, Gina Rinehart, Gautam Adani et al. It is their stooges who now hold the balance of power. Iron Mike can correct me if I am wrong but, the overwhelming prsence of Murdoch media in Australia probably had a lot to do with the state of min d of thousands of Australian voters. Reneweconomy.com has been reporting on a relentless campaign of scaremongering that has been led by the Murdoch owned media in Australia. No doubt it had some effect.

       So Australian climate and energy policy is going to be hobbled by the wishes of the top 0.0001% of the Australian population

       Rupert Murdoch – Rupert Murdoch is worth $19 billion and has been married 4 times — here’s how he went from operating a small Australian paper to helming one of the biggest networks in the world

       Gina Rinehart – Gina Rinehart retains top spot on Forbes’ Australian rich list

       Mining mogul Gina Rinehart has been named as Australia’s richest person by Forbes, with an estimated wealth of US$14.8 billion.

       Rinehart retained her position at the top of Forbes’ Australia top 50 Rich List despite falling iron ore prices knocking her wealth down by $1.8 billion since the last list was compiled in November 2017.

       Yes folks! The world is run according to the wishes of the very wealthiest, at the expense of the majority of the rest of life on the planet. Unfortunately no amount of their money will stop global warming from continuing to wreak havoc on the rest of us. Good luck pal!

       This is depressing as f—.

       1. 100% his media empire is a factor in all this, and the vested interest and lobby groups that threw money behind the liberal party and murdoch. No different to any
          “democratic election” really. Big corporate lobbyists run the show, politicians are bought. Same old gaff, nothing to see here.

          In saying that islandboy, i think the people in Australia, in general don’t give a shit about:
          * climate change
          * peak oil
          * renewable energy
          * environmental/ecological destruction and overshoot

          Their footy, beer and slot machines is their priority. Hence my pessimistic outlook.

          1. In saying that islandboy, i think the people in Australia, in general don’t give a shit about:
             * climate change
             * peak oil
             * renewable energy
             * environmental/ecological destruction and overshoot

             And how is that any different from The US with Trump, his supporters, the FF lobby and FOX news?!

             And my local coral reefs are still just as doomed as the Great Barrier Reef!

48. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05-16/burger-king-deliver-food-drivers-stuck-la-traffic

    1. What?! They haven’t heard of drones?

49. Perovskite- [pear- ohves-kite], said with a Russian accent. Say it three times in row.
    Practice because it may become familiar lingo, like say, linoleum.

    This material may be finding its way into Photovoltaics this coming decade, in a big way.
    Higher efficiency cells, perhaps for less money.
    I’ll take an order of Pirozhki’s while I ‘m at it.

    https://www.technologyreview.com/s/613524/these-flexible-solar-cells-bring-us-closer-to-kicking-the-fossil-fuel-habit/

    https://solarindustrymag.com/nrel-achieves-breakthrough-in-perovskite-solar-cells/

    1. I think you are being very optimistic with a decade. These are still very much in the lab playing at the moment. There are lots of other issues such as water sensitivity and short life. Then they need to be scaled up to test systems, the scaled up for production maybe 2 decades is more realistic. By the time they are ready will there be a market for it with silicon going hammer and tongs?

       NAOM

       1. Being skeptical about these developments is always the correct stance. I was going off a couple articles, but perhaps the writers were just being cheerleaders like they often are.
          Hopefully we will be surprised on the upside.

          1. All the reports I have seen have been just lab tests on the basic materials, none of them trying to make a functional product. Compare this to new battery technologies that are making working cells and demonstrating a path to production. A long way to go before these are production ready.

             NAOM

50. The Biden/Harris Presidency will put a strong foot forward with the new Energy Cabinet Secretary Gov. Jay Inslee of WA state, who will spearhead major components of his ‘Evergreen Energy Economic Plan for America’, which the incoming administration has thoroughly endorsed-

    https://jayinslee.com/issues/evergreen-economy

    Jan 20, 2021…and according to sources at the Wash Post the new attorney general of the usa has revoked the passports, and frozen the banking assets, of the entire trump family pending investigation of massive tax fraud spanning a 17 yr period…

51. The Climate Movement: What Next?

    “…the climate movement promotes price incentives (taxes, carbon trading), innovation and new technologies, commodification of Nature (ecosystems as goods and services, natural capital), offsetting losses of biodiversity and greenhouse gas emissions, and new quantitative measures of growth as progress…

    TECHNO-OPTIMIST CAPITALISM, GREEN GROWTH AND GREEN NEW DEALS

    Cutting past the personal anecdotes, Bill McKibben’s GT piece appears to promote systemic change, but does it really?

    …The aim is for a large shift in financing towards new energy sources, which is basically the mainstream (neoclassical) economic argument that substitutes exist and the price mechanism will supply them. This relies on the belief that price mechanisms send the right signals and actually reflect resource costs rather than being determined by power relations, rules and regulations, subsidies and public infrastructure. If its cheap it must be good. There is little or no connection to politics, resource extractivism or biophysical limits (e.g., on the resources required for electric technologies), nor the need for demand control rather than supply increase. Technology will save us, markets work and there will be ‘free’ electricity for all…

    The French regulation school describe how capitalism has historically adapted in response to the crises it creates; enabling with changes in the controlling minority but maintaining a power bloc that rules over the majority. Karl Polanyi, long ago, noted the way in which crises leads to social payback (e.g., ‘new deals’) to prevent total breakdown, civil unrest and potential rebellion. When that fails it uses authoritarian force, as seen with securitisation and the rise of the political right…

    …there is nothing in the ‘new technologies’ that inevitably changes the political and economic power relationships. Indeed, the trillions being requested are for investment in the growth of the economy via increased ‘green’ industrial energy and market product supply…

    …Their explicitly stated concern is that: ‘In the long term, if climate change is not tackled, growth itself will be at risk.’ Change is coming and the corporations and billionaires are fully aware of this… They have also long been seeking to control the environmental movement for their own ends.

    The ‘smart’ money already supports Extinction Rebellion and Greta Thunberg. Greta is lauded and praised, hosted by the international and Davos elite, and they hope can be used to help spring the trillions of funding. She can expect prizes and awards, as long as she plays the game.

    Extinction Rebellion (XR) is similarly useful. It claims no political agenda, which is obviously a disingenuous, if not fraudulent, claim. They are engaged in a power struggle, but on whose behalf? Pushing a ‘climate emergency’ that seeks trillions for whom and under what political process of allocation?…

    What is happening right now appears to be a classic case of a passive revolution. When hegemonic power is threatened it captures the movement leaders and neutralises them by bringing them into the power circles and takes the initiative away from radical revolutionary change… None of this is any different from the decades of NGO capture and new environmental pragmatism…

    WHAT NEXT?

    The climate movement runs along a knife edge between re-establishing another phase of competitive economic growth, and making radical economic and political reform a reality through social ecological transformation. The current thrust is to the former and will remain so as long as the potential forces for change operate via corporations and remain committed to productivism, equitable materialism and nationalism. The climate movement is a real threat to powerful elites and that is exactly why it is being infiltrated and invited to have ‘a seat at the table’. Climate change has been and is being used to wipe off the agenda all other environmental issues and to impose singular ‘solutions’ to systemic problems.

    Solidarity could start with seeking some common understanding of the structure of the political and economic system. Connecting that understanding to biophysical reality also means deconstructing the growth economy not re-establishing it as ‘Green’ based on mythical free energy sources and the benevolence of billionaires.”

52. Greta Thunberg, PR and the “Climate Emergency”

    “I wish to make clear that I am not opposed to wind, solar and renewable energy generation. What I am opposed to is the illusion that wind, solar and other forms of renewable energy can sustain a growth economy and the continuance of the consumer lifestyle in rich countries.

    Renewable energy can have a limited place in the future but the priority is degrowth – with energy and materials conservation by sharing more – because the global economy of the rich world has overshot the carrying capacity of the planet and this is very dangerous. In any case there are currently no affordable ways to buffer fluctuations in renewable energy generation between seasons and nor are these likely for a long time, if ever. I am also very opposed to the financialisation of nature…

    I came across a linked series of articles… They are titled ‘The Manufacturing of Greta Thunberg – for Consent’… When I started reading them I was at first suspicious that this was another ad hominem attack on Greta Thunberg. However as I read further, to use the Biblical expression, ‘the scales fell from my eyes’…

    The articles show the main actors in the drama, how they are connected to, or part of, major factions of the global corporate elite – and how they are pursuing what is in effect a global public relations campaign to ‘lead the public into emergency mode’ – an emergency where the public will call for action and this part of the global elite will then have a mass backing and be able to deliver.

    But deliver what, exactly?

    …By writing this piece I do not mean here to deny that there is an ecological crisis, and nor that there is a climate emergency and that urgent action is needed. Rather it is to show that there is a sophisticated PR campaign behind what is happening and the agenda is that of a major faction in the global elite. This agenda will not work – indeed it will complete the destruction of nature and the eco-system…

    Afterword

    After finishing writing this article I read a very interesting article on the same blog – about the appearance of an ‘XR Business Blog’ which revealed some of the business interests behind Extinction Rebellion. Given the controversy it caused this part of the XR blog rapidly disappeared. Several of the named individuals are venture capitalist funders – looking to make money from what they claim to be ‘sustainability’ and very much within the green growth camp. I doubt that many of the companies named, including Unilever for example, would embrace degrowth, the revival of the commons, co-operatives or other types of institutions for sharing so needed for economies which contracting back to the point of one planet living. Above all it seems to bear out the suspicion that for some of its leaders and initiators the XR Rebellion was seen as part of the planned PR offensive to build support for the phony Green New Deal….”

53. Facebook Alternative?

    “ABSTRACT

    We are an open source and decentralized social networking platform where usersare rewarded with Minds tokens for contributions to the community. Our goal is to build a new model for content creators to take back their Internet freedom,revenue and social reach.

    There is a crisis occurring in the social networking world. ​Surveillance, algorithm manipulation and censorship​ are infecting the web at unprecedented levels. For the first time in history, millions of users are abandoning traditional, centralized social apps in favor of freedom-based alternatives.”

    ~ Minds Whitepaper

54. Fred, I expect you’ll find this interesting.

    DOLPHINS UNDERSTAND THEIR PARTNER’S ROLE IN A COOPERATIVE TASK

    https://dolphins.org/news?news_action=detail&news_detail_id=26&back_state=1

    1. Yes, Tks, I read a book dealing with that topic.

55. Hmmm… I guess the big guys want to be able to direct the dialogue on this, before it is crafted strongly against their interests-

    https://www.utilitydive.com/news/pge-dominion-11-other-major-companies-push-carbon-tax-in-new-climate-ini/555011/

    1. I’m sure the big guys can already read the writing on the wall, it says that probably sooner and not later, carbon will be taxed and regulated as a pollutant. So it is probably better for them to get out ahead of the curve and be proactive rather than reactive. The problem they are probably not yet coming to grips with, is the necessary paradigm shift away from a growth based economic paradigm.

       https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOlmgz0smSQ
       Why our economic model must change – VPRO documentary

       Be sure to turn on English closed captions as parts of the narration are in Dutch.

       vpro documentary
       Published on May 17, 2019
       Why is our economic model all about growth? Is growth the only way for our economic model to be successful? Or is there another economic model that is much more sustainable and less outdated as the one we are living in? A documentary about our economic model and the idea of a new one.

       In Doughnut economics by Kate Raworth, we see that markets are inefficient and growth is not the holy grail. It’s time for a new economic model: the doughnut economics. Kate Raworth’s plea for the ‘doughnut economics’ casts doubt on the credo of economic growth for sustainability: there are hard limits to what you can do to the planet. Kate Raworth’s doughnut economics could change our future. Let’s have a look.

       1. The goddamned problem with getting the growth is unnecessary and actually harmful out to the public is that it’s always presented in medicinal form.It’s sold by preaching about future problems that are to be solved by present day sacrifices, with the message being if you don’t do what we want, you are going to pay a big price later.

          WRONG FUCKING MESSAGE. People don’t want to year bitching and doom mongering.

          If you want people to listen, you need to talk about how doing things differently NOW, at little or no expense, if you manage your collective affairs properly, will enable you to reap a huge profit later on, after the old folks are gone.

          Yes, it costs a whole lot to support old farts like me with Medicare and SS, etc, but I am going to leave behind a nice house, and a nice productive farm, with LOTS of amenities….. worth considerably more than I am likely to cost society before I depart this old vale of tears.

          Today’s kids in countries such as the USA stand to inherit an unbelievably rich country, one chock a block with excellent highways, electrical and water and sewer grids, lots of parks and protected lands, plenty of farmland, and enough remaining of nature’s one time gift of resources such as oil and copper, etc, to live VERY well indeed, without worrying about shortages.

          Two parents, two or less kids, mc mansions are eventually going to sell for peanuts, when the supply exceeds the number of younger people looking for a house.

          They won’t be needing new superhighways, or much in the way of an expanded electrical grid, other than some new long distance lines to distribute wind and solar power. There will be water enough for California cities, once the population starts to decline…… etc.

          There will be enough hospitals, enough schools, enough jails, enough of damned near everything, especially shopping malls and that sort of crap. All of it can be upgraded and brought up to whatever new tech becomes available can be retrofitted dirt cheap, compared to building new.

          Now not many people are going to BUY this message , short term, but if it’s presented correctly, it will get lots of them to thinking about things that have never before crossed their minds.

          1. The people born before 1940 are (were) the last people on earth to be able to enjoy a growth economy and not end up in the meat grinder world. Assuming a full lifespan of course.

             “Today’s kids in countries such as the USA stand to inherit an unbelievably rich country, one chock a block with excellent highways, electrical and water and sewer grids, lots of parks and protected lands, plenty of farmland, and enough remaining of nature’s one time gift of resources such as oil and copper, etc, to live VERY well indeed, without worrying about shortages. ”

             Today’s kids are already in a dying world that is fast changing, and it’s just going to get stranger and worse with time. Hasn’t anybody gotten the message, there will be forests right up the Arctic Ocean and forests back on Antarctica at this level of carbon in the atmosphere? As it increases, well let’s not go there now.
             As I heard proclaimed just recently, the children of the American south today may end up living in Canada.
             Or at least their grandchildren if they have any.
             When you have Florida temps transported to New York State, (with colder winters of course, but not always) then things are going to be drastically different.

             OFM, how do we get back that million acres of farmland that just got covered with several feet of sand in the heartland?
             How long will it take East India to recover from the last big storm or Mozambique from IDA?
             There is still damage left from Superstorm Sandy.

             Then there was Harvey. https://www.texastribune.org/2018/12/13/rebuilding-commission-calls-hurricane-harvey-wakeup-call-texas/
             The list is much longer and worth a book globally.
             When will the amount of effort, material and funds be less than that which can be applied? Right about the time the other predicaments close in?
             Let’s face it, humans have been caught in their own trap and don’t seem to be able to do much about it.
             https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xwtdhWltSIg

             BTW, what will the children do with the millions of dead leaking oil and gas wells that we leave them?

             Enjoy the warmth and the inheritance.

             1. Hey, GF,

                I sort of stuck my chin out for your one punch knock out reply, lol.
                Of course today’s kids are looking at a catastrophic downside…. if they happen to be looking.

                What I’m getting at is that you need some sugar on such a bitter dose of reality, in order to get the kids to even look in that direction.

                You win people over from the THEM camp to the US camp a little at a time, by getting them to thinking about the shortcomings of their own ways of thinking, helping them gradually climb out of some of their intellectual ruts.

                This process can take years and years….. wisdom comes slowly, as most of us here no doubt understand, given that most of us seem to be old farts. I know quite a few people who were “count me in” republican type voters twenty or thirty years ago. But they’re liberals, and vote D these days… even though it’s a fairly well accepted rule of thumb that the older you get, the more conservative you tend to be.

                There’s an old saying to this effect, that if you aren’t a liberal when you are young, you have no heart, and if you aren’t a conservative when you are old, you have no brain. There’s a world of truth in this, although this truth does not apply to contemporary American politics.

                The people who have moved leftward, politically, as they get older, gradually came to realize that they were wrong, earlier, about some particular issue or issues, which got them to thinking, left them UNABLE to think about some other things about which they might be wrong, until after a few years, they came to understand such ideas as USA NUMBER ONE , or MAGA, or civil rights for gays and lesbians, etc, are part of the REAL moral and ethical high ground. Maybe they came to understand this reality when they raised a kid that happened to be gay, or when some body they knew failed to make it home from some hot little war in Asia or the Middle East… or when they finally understood, if they are serious Christians, that Jesus would want them to not only support tax money for school lunches for hungry kids, he would INSIST that they dip into their own pocket, PLUS pay the taxes. This is a considerable move, morally and intellectually, from believing and saying that worthless bums who won’t work simply shouldn’t have kids, or even worse, such as let’m starve if their folks won’t work.

                Some of them had their first scales falling from their eyes experience when a loved one died as the result of working with dangerous chemicals. One of my uncles died way too young, after having progressively losing the use of his legs over a period of years, most likely as the result of long term ( and long ago) exposure to pesticides since outlawed. A few quiet conversations with his kids, my first cousins, have gone a LONG way toward awakening them to the fact that environmental regulations are not NECESSARILY part of a leftist commie Democrat plot to take over their lives.

                They are hard core evangelical type Baptists, and WANT to believe in Trump and his cronies, but they are not so quick to repeat his lies since we had that talk. And two of them are diabetic… and worried sick they will lose their company supplied health insurance. So I never miss an opportunity to work that OTHER big commie Democrat plot into the conversation, when I can, namely single payer health care, with negotiated and regulated rates.

                There’s an excellent chance that sooner or later these facts and ideas will actually SINK IN, actually become REAL to them. When this happens, they will gradually change their political tune, and ten years later, they will have D candidate stickers on their cars.

                It won’t hurt a THING to get a younger people thinking about the UPSIDE of falling populations and sustainable economics.

                The preacher always preaches the joys of Heaven, as WELL AS the torments of Hell. The preachers may not be very smart, as individuals, but collectively, they have an absolutely SUPERB grasp of human nature and of what works and does not work in manipulating their followers.

                We should be following their example, and preaching a little Heaven , rather than emphasizing HELL alone.

                1. OFM, why do people want to go to Heaven anyway? Because they think the alternative is Hell or non-existence. It’s a threat based system.

                   Same with the government, it’s a threat based system. Do as you are told, stay in the lines, or end up in jail or worse.

                   Why do people go to work? First the land and food are taken from them and it’s work or starve or jail.

                   Those are quick to convince people to do things from dropping A bombs to cleaning toilets.

                   So why do you protest when the threat is real and not some heinous afterlife or manmade law?

                   Hey, I am all for working your way to get a full democracy with lots of social benefits and stopgaps. But none of that is possible on a wrecked planet.
                   The British are coming, the Huns are here, no time to coddle, it’s now or never.
                   The other thing is to just sit back and realize we are functionally extinct.

          2. The goddamned problem with getting the growth is unnecessary and actually harmful out to the public is that it’s always presented in medicinal form.It’s sold by preaching about future problems that are to be solved by present day sacrifices, with the message being if you don’t do what we want, you are going to pay a big price later.

             WRONG FUCKING MESSAGE. People don’t want to year bitching and doom mongering.

             OFM, I rarely insist that anyone watch video talks that I post. I won’t actually insist in this case either. However, I will strongly recommend that you do so … 😉

             The message about ‘Growth’ here is simple, it can’t and it won’t continue. It also isn’t about future problems mitigated by some pain now. It’s about the shit that is hitting the fan right now.
             .

             

             1. Hi Fred, the manure and fan guys are about the best and most spot on cartoon I’ve seen in a long time.

                And generally I do watch or read anything you post, ditto GF ,unless it’s old news to me. But there’s no link about the end of growth or anything else in your reply. Please post it again!

                I agree that growth in the usual sense of more people, more houses, more cars, more roads, more stores, farms, power plants, more of everything material, must cease, or else we are headed to hell. We’re already moving in that direction right here and right now.

                Probably the only real question is how long it will be before shit really and truly is in the fan, not just HEADED that way. But some people in some places may pull thru ok, and even continue to live a modern life style, after a fashion at least.

                When I say we’re screwing up the message, I’m talking PRACTICAL psychology.

                It’s good practice to present something positive when dealing with such depressing questions and issues. It helps keep the audience interested, helps motivate the audience.

                A carrot and a stick together work better than just a stick, that’s my point.

                1. Shit and fan, more like the entire output of the sewage farm meets the windfarm!

                   NAOM

                2. POSITIVE STATEMENT FOR THE MATERIALISTIC AND HEAVY FOSSIL FUEL USERS

                   “Hey, guess what, if you cut way back on your fuel use and not buy unneeded items, expensive cars, boats you can save lots
                   of money. Then when things go wrong or something needs repair / replacement, or you need to get a debt paid, you have the money!”

                   No need for climate or environment to enter the conversation. Just plain economic sense to provide security and be able to take advantage of opportunities when they arise.
                   Saving 20 dollars a day adds up to $438,000 over an adult lifetime and more if you get some interest on it.

                3. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOlmgz0smSQ
                   Why our economic model must change – VPRO documentary

                   Be sure to turn on English closed captions as parts of the narration are in Dutch.

56. Utility scale energy storage has a long way to go to make renewables possible

    “I often get letters from people about energy breakthroughs in biofuels, solar, electric trucks, and so on. This post is about the ‘record breaking amount of battery storage add in 2018’…

    To enhance your own evaluation of the constant barrage of happy news in the media, here’s why I didn’t get excited or cheered up and go back to thinking the future was bound to be bright and shiny.

    First, let’s go over the four possible ways to store electrical energy. We don’t need to store much now, because we still have natural gas, which kicks in to balance solar and wind power (but not coal and nuclear, which are damaged by trying to do this), and for much of the year provides 66% of electricity generation (along with coal), because wind and solar are so seasonal…

    The only commercial way to store electricity is pumped hydro storage (PHS), which can store 2% of America’s electricity generation today. But we’ve run out of places to put new dams. Only two have been built since 1995. There are only 43 PHS dams now, and we’d need 7800 more to store one day of U.S. electricity…

    Then there’s Concentrated Solar Power with Thermal Energy storage (TES). But these plants only contribute 0.06% of our electricity and most don’t have any TES. The billion dollar Crescent Dunes plant is one of the few that does have TES. We’d need 8,265 more of them to store one day of electricity.

    So that leaves batteries. As I mentioned above, the March 2019 article ‘US Energy Storage Broke Records in 2018, but the Best Is Yet to Come’ gushes about the record deployments of energy storage batteries in 2018 and the expectations that even more will arrive in 2019 and thereafter.

    But don’t get too excited. The total storage capability of the 2018 batteries was only 777 Megawatt Hours or 0.000777 Terawatt hours (TwH). Every day the United States generates 11.12 TwH, so to store one day of electricity generation would require 14,311 times more batteries than the ones installed in 2018.

    On top of that, because wind and solar are so extremely seasonal, and there’s no national grid or ever likely to be one, on average a region would need to store at least 42 days of electricity to make it through long periods when the wind isn’t blowing and the sun isn’t shining. That’s 600,000 times more batteries than installed in 2018.”

57. As if there has not been enough of a resurgence of nationalist tropes around the world, now we get the Chinese singing Anti American trade war songs to the tune of actual anti-Japanese war songs! Trump has been let loose in the China shop…

    The song, simply called “Trade War,” is set to the tune of an anti-Japanese song from the 1960s film “Tunnel War” — in which a Chinese town defends itself from invasion.

    贸易战嘿贸易战 Trade trench war

    不怕他蛮横来挑战 Not afraid that he is arrogant to challenge

    嘿，不怕他蛮横来挑战 Oh, I am not afraid that he is arrogant.

    太平洋上展开了贸易战 A trade war broke out in the Pacific

    一带一路连成了片 One Belt, One Road, One Piece

    肇事者他敢打 The perpetrator, he dared to fight

    打得他头晕目也眩 Playing his head is dizzy and dazzling

    肇事者他敢打 The perpetrator, he dared to fight

    打得他魂飞胆也颤 Playing his soul and flying

    兵来将挡 Soldiers will block

    You can listen to the catchy little tune here:
    https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/AsK2QGhpF86WAquS9MF9hw

    爱国歌曲《贸易战》上线啦
    作者：赵良田 世界华人作家 5 days ago
    贸易战【合】.mp3
    来自世界华人作家

    After you listen to that, you can catch up with the Japanese singing
    WORLD ORDER “Let’s start WW3”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FMrqlo_L-gY

    Good Luck Folks!

    1. Well I tell you I am extremely proud MY President is introduced with the song here, instead of that trash you posted.

       God Bless The USA
       —————-
       by Lee Greenwood

       If tomorrow all the things were gone,
       I’d worked for all my life.
       And I had to start again,
       with just my children and my wife.

       I’d thank my lucky stars,
       to be livin here today.
       ‘Cause the flag still stands for freedom,
       and they can’t take that away.

       And I’m proud to be an American,
       where at least I know I’m free.
       And I wont forget the men who died,
       who gave that right to me.

       And I gladly stand up,
       next to you and defend her still today.
       ‘Cause there ain’t no doubt I love this land,
       God bless the USA.

       From the lakes of Minnesota,
       to the hills of Tennessee.
       Across the plains of Texas,
       From sea to shining sea.

       From Detroit down to Houston,
       and New York to L.A.
       Well there’s pride in every American heart,
       and its time we stand and say.

       That I’m proud to be an American,
       where at least I know I’m free.
       And I wont forget the men who died,
       who gave that right to me.

       And I gladly stand up,
       next to you and defend her still today.
       ‘Cause there ain’t no doubt I love this land,
       God bless the USA.

       And I’m proud to be and American,
       where at least I know I’m free.
       And I wont forget the men who died,
       who gave that right to me.

       And I gladly stand up,
       next to you and defend her still today.
       ‘Cause there ain’t no doubt I love this land,
       God bless the USA.

       1. Forgot to mention your gun, truck, Jesus and pregnant girlfriend.

       2. Perhaps both you and YOUR president should sign up for an introductory course in global supply chain management at your local community college, so you can get a clue about how the global economy actually works! You could also check in with soy farmers in Iowa who mostly voted for YOUR president and listen to their concerns about his little trade war with China.

          Now mind you, I happen to be of the opinion that the current global growth based economic paradigm is not sustainable and that the world needs a completely new paradigm. BUT! blowing up the old order without having any plan B in place is a pretty damn stupid way to proceed!

          And as for you gladly standing up, next to me and defending the USA today, you don’t even have a clue what freedom is or what it takes to defend the interests of the American people in today’s world. You’d need to start by understanding that old style military engagements won’t get you very far in world where our adversaries can just as easily destroy our society through hacking our collective psyche by employing cyber warfare techniques via social media!

          Then again, for all I know you and your post might be a Russian bot sowing dissent!

          1. Just did a Google search for “Mick Aitken” at the peakoilbarrel.com web site ( Mick Aitken site:http://peakoilbarrel.com/ ). The search came up with four results, two from July 2017 and two from December 2017.

             His 12/09/2017 at 5:41 pm post was about snowfall in Mississippi (global warming denial) and his 07/25/2017 at 10:34 pm was an “interesting” post about education:

             “I believe the main issue is the need to reform public schools so kids stop being taught disdain for fossil fuels. This wasn’t always the case. Happened as part of the overall move within the last 20-30 years toward using socialism and sharia to craft all the lesson plans taught in public schools.”

             In one of his other two posts he asked Survivalist what he had “any thoughts on these methods” followed by this link:

             https://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/as-civil-unrest-brews-wealthy-go-underground-in-luxury-bunker-community-safest-places-on-earth_11142016

             In his final post before disappearing into the ether for seventeen months, he asked Survivalist, “Say Survivalist, what did you make of the reaction, to the Atlanta airport electrical outage? A sign of what the future might hold?”

             That last question was truly bizarre, since I could find no mention of any “Atlanta airport electrical outage” anywhere on this site. To make it even more bizarre, a search for “Atlanta airport electrical outage” came up with one result:

             http://peakoilbarrel.com/eias-electric-power-monthly-november-2017-edition-with-data-for-september/

             WTF? @ Survivalist, do you know this Mick Aitken guy? Is he a real person?

             1. There is nothing all that unusual about Mick A. Not a russian bot.
                In fact he is typical of what about 35% of USA voters feel solid about.
                Its what Fox news and Rush Limb. teach them to think. And maybe their church.
                They are the challenge for the rest of us.
                How do we live in a democracy with such a voting block, who has strong favoritism in the electoral college system?
                The would blindly follow a Nazi leader down the path to hell, self-righteous all the way.
                They’d drop a bomb for jesus.
                They’d tell you can’t have an abortion, but an AK-47 is just fine.
                They’d tell you civil rights is pretty good, for white male property owners.
                They don’t like Sharia law, unless its their version. Then they want to shove it down your throat.

          2. “your post might be a Russian bot sowing dissent!”

             I have a problem with your statement Fred. “might be” is far to low of probability and think by the post there must be some human action in the post. I suspect an algorithm scans this site and kicks out dissent and disinformation opportunity for a human to comment. The human personalizes a responding comment and than adds a pre-written dissent statement.

             In the past, I would post a link from the HuffingtonPost and nearly always get a dissent full response similar to the one above. Also, this type of dissent most always comes from a common first and last name and not a screen name.

       3. Hey mick-
          “And I wont forget the men who died,
          who gave that right to me.”

          In that line are you talking about the Native Americans who died trying to protect their homeland from the invaders?

          btw- Your president dodged the draft [and is a tax fraud on a massive scale]
          You can have him. What an embarrassment.

       4. What’s that guy’s name, Chump?

          President Chump, has a nice ring to it. Though I am afraid Chumps everywhere may sue. 🙂

58. Financial troubles for Tesla reached critical level, and there is no light at the end of the tunnel.

    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2019/05/code-red-at-tesla-as-carmaggedon-sinks-tesla-bonds-carmaker-may-need-another-1-2-billion-before-year-end.html

    Turns out, according to CEO Elon Musk’s own admission in an email to his employees, Tesla will burn through that $2.4 billion in net proceeds in just 10 months. If Tesla’s stock is still worth anything at that time, the company will have to sell more shares or it will have to sell more debt to an increasingly nervous bond market. If it cannot do that, and thus if it cannot get more cash to fuel its cash-burn machine, it will have to default on its debts – see above scenario.

    1. I think there is a chance of bankruptcy within the next couple of years.

       1. Hi Iron Mike-
          I agree, there is a considerable chance for a Tesla bankruptcy. Probably their battery business is the most valuable part of the company.
          I know two people who have a hell of time getting routine replacement parts on Teslas in the first yr of ownership. One a windshield, and one a fender.

          More importantly, all the manufacturers may be in for a world of hurt over the next seven years. I suggest digesting this article. Its lengthy, but a very good analysis.
          https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/25/the-osborne-effect-on-the-auto-industry/

    2. Yeah, Tesla may indeed go belly up and there is also a very high chance that civilization itself may fail entirely along with the whole ecosphere! On the other hand…

       https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-gigafactory-3-china-rises-elon-musk-sci-fi-projects/

       Tesla is simply not a conventional company, and neither is its projects. It’s a disruptor that has reached a critical mass — no longer small enough to be ignored, but not yet large enough to warrant unquestionable respect. This, together with Elon Musk’s persona, both in real life and online, has brought a lot of attention to Tesla. Unfortunately, most of this attention today are predominantly negative, as could be seen in the overarching narrative surrounding the company. An example of this could be seen in a recent note published by Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, where he criticized Tesla and Elon Musk for pursuing “sci-fi” projects like Full Self-Driving, an in-house insurance service, and a Robotaxi network.

       I also tend to agree with the points this comenter raises. Elon has in the past self financed his ventures. He does have his own money!

       Writer of Code Mick E Mouse • 2 hours ago
       The stock hadn’t even reached $200 1 1/2 years ago and they were fine then. I was excited when it hit $180. Regardless, here are a few things to consider:

       1. The stock price doesn’t matter unless they are planning to raise capital.
       2. There will always be plenty of big investors with real vision that believe in Elon Musk. He’s proven himself time and again.
       3. Elon Musk has a net worth over $20B. Do you really think he’d just give up and walk away if they had funding issues? No. He would make changes, keep fighting and fund it himself through hard times if he had to (which he doesn’t and won’t – see #2). He said as much himself when they absorbed Solar City.

       But why is everyone so worried about Tesla? Shouldn’t we be just as worried about job cuts at Ford Motors and GM?!

       https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/20/business/ford-cutting-jobs.html

       Job Cuts at Ford Motor to Total 7,000 by August
       Ford’s River Rouge plant in Dearborn, Mich. The company said on Monday that it was reducing its salaried workforce by 7,000 people.

       Other automakers have also struggled. Ford’s main rival, General Motors, has idled or greatly scaled back operations at four plants in the United States and one in Canada. G.M. aims to trim 14,000 blue- and white-collar jobs.
       Credit
       Brittany Greeson for The New York Times

       Good Luck Folks!

       1. On Topic

          “Elon has in the past self financed his ventures. He does have his own money!” ~ Fred Magyar

          Not precisely. I looked that up and even commented about it previously hereon; something along the lines of getting a loan from Dad for some kind of maybe online city map biz up and running with bro’ and then having it bought out by Compaq computers for a very high amount relative to initial investment before Compaq went belly up and/or were bought out.

          Has Donald Trump’s Dad’s money also functioned as a springboard for some of Donald’s fortune?

          I’ve heard that money makes money and about old money and so forth and that the UK queen is just part of a family of successful thugs and have much of their fortune in land-holdingsgrabs across the UK and maybe elsewhere, to say nothing of glorified welfare from the citizenry.

          That sort of thing is the case with many other so-called elites, worldwide. Thuggery runs things on planet Earth.

          Problems with those sorts of things as well as how they factor into such things as social unrest, poverty, and social decay/decline/collapse, etc., should be obvious to some people.

59. For Fred

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xLuQifpJv_8

    1. For HuntingtonBeach

       http://themindi.blogspot.com/2007/02/chapter-8-soul-of-mark-iii-beast.html

       1. Fred, my first response to this is ROFLMAO. Is this supposed to be comedy?

          For example: “A machine begetting machines,” Dirksen quipped. “Next thing you’ll be calling him a mother!”
          “No.” Hunt said. “He’s an engineer. And however crude an engineered machine is in comparison with the human body, it represents a higher act than simple biological reproduction, for it is ate least the result of a thought process.”
          “I ought to know better than to argue with a lawyer,” (comedy gold there)

          Apparently Hunt came to the conclusion that thought is not a simple biological process of the living but is different for humans than other species, an act of the mechanical producing the simple mechanical. Smacks of First Testamentism.

          Is this Hunt guy a techno-religion fanatic? Seems to place machines above life. Appears to hold the belief that species are unrelated. A case of anthropomorphic toolism?
          Or maybe I am just biased toward real life.
          Oh well, it was fun anyway, a look into the techno-centric mind that has developed over the centuries and is confused about who and what he/she really is and what they are living within.

          1. Fred, my first response to this is ROFLMAO. Is this supposed to be comedy?

             But of course! I find everything to have a touch of both tragedy and comedy.

             However the reason I posted the link to ‘The Mind’s I’ blog with that particular chapter is more mundane. It’s just that the moment I saw that drone scurrying about on the ground it evoked the memory of the descriptions of the poor Mark III Beast described in that story.

             On the other hand I have always considered the entire ‘The Minds I’ book, to have been a profoundly influential one, on my own intellectual development and my personal views on a wide range of topics. I still often go back to revisit it and find insights in this new age of social media. It still helps me navigate down the many bifurcations of new developments in Cognitive Science, AI, robotics, and CRISPR plus other emerging technologies…

             As you probably know:

             Daniel Dennett is an American philosopher, writer, and cognitive scientist whose research centers on the philosophy of mind, philosophy of science, and philosophy of biology, particularly as those fields relate to evolutionary biology and cognitive science.
             Source Wikipedia

             Cheers!

             1. Ok, I will investigate it further. Thanks for the info.

60. And lo and behold! In a world of profound irrationality, a small touch of rationality, regarding risk assessment related to the possible range of outcomes due to climate change. Not a bad read IMHO! 😉

    https://thebulwark.com/what-changed-my-mind-about-climate-change/

    What Changed My Mind About Climate Change?
    Risk management is not a binary choice.

    Risk management is not about discerning the optimal response to the most likely outcome. It is about discerning the appropriate response to the most likely distribution of possible outcomes. That means incorporating the possibility that climate change, either by a bad roll of the geophysical dice or a large and unexpected societal vulnerability to warming, turns into a bigger problem than we expect…

    … You don’t have to believe with all your heart that the worst-case scenario is sure to happen. You just have to understand that it is one possible outcome. And that we should not be making policy based on an assumption that we are certain of this or that outcome

    1. High or mid carbon from this point on may merely result in changes in the rapidity of crossing thresholds rather than whether the thresholds are crossed or not.
       I don’t see the low carbon, low eco-destruction path as very likely and even that might result in crossing the major stability threshold.
       (see my comment below on abrupt climate change)

61. One more intro to advanced concepts.

    Whenever we see graphs for future temperature change all we get are smooth curves. Ice core data (see Alley and others) show a very different story. A world where abrupt temperature changes are the norm rather than the outlier event. There were 25 recorded abrupt climate change events during the last glaciation (80000 to 18000 years BP).
    The fact is we don’t know what causes these fast oscillations in temperature over regions and sometimes the planet. We have guesses. Whatever the reasons, the curve will not be smooth, especially during transistion times to a warmer world. Possibly even warm world will not be stable. The Holocene may have been exceptionally stable due to a particular set of physical circumstances.
    Anyway, sustained agriculture is most likely out of the picture in the future. I would as it is likely industry as we know it will disappear possibly to be replaced at a low energy level but maybe not.
    So how do we prepare for a chaotic future? Save the life base as much as possible. The salmon(fish), the plants, birds, insects, the whole shebang of life. Stop the toxification of the planet, stop development, spend our abilities protecting the natural world as much as possible.
    Most plants and animals lived through the various glaciations, but they need places to move. They need widely distributed habitat to have pockets of survival and they need to be able to migrate seasonally and over longer periods of time.

    Just some thoughts derived from the known realities and data from ice cores.
    Just remember, when the sediment cores and ice cores show large Arctic temperature changes (up to 24C) that could be regional, globally balanced or polar amplified (global change of say 4 to 6C). Still, if one lives in that region or the atmospheric circulation for the world changes completely, it’s still a shock to life.
    Most genera must be fairly resilient since they generally survived the up and downs of the ice age.

    We can bet on smooth all the way, but not the likely future. Not even over the next decade or two.

    There are twenty-five of these distinct warming-cooling oscillations (Dansgaard 1984) which are now commonly referred to as Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles, or D-O cycles. One of the most surprising findings was that the shifts from cold stadials to the warm interstadial intervals occurred in a matter of decades, with air temperatures over Greenland rapidly warming 8 to 15°C (Huber et al. 2006). Furthermore, the cooling occurred much more gradually, giving these events a saw-tooth shape in climate records from most of the Northern Hemisphere (Figure 1).

    https://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/abrupt-climate-change-during-the-last-ice-24288097

    Warming occurred in a matter of decades. Something to think about. Alley at one point has indicated abrupt climate change can occur in a decade or less.

62. The Solar Industry is Booming, but Most of the Rewards only go to White Men

    “Problems connected to diversity deficits as identified by the report are already playing out within the industry. Six black men previously employed by the New Jersey-based Momentum Solar recently filed suit over allegations of racism, including pay discrepancies and repeated slurs.

    Filed in Brooklyn, New York, the suit seeks class-action status and highlights the treatment of the men while working at Momentum Solar’s warehouse in Plainview, New York. The complaint accuses the company of fostering “a work environment permeated with vile racism” and the men say they endured repeated comments from supervisors and other staff, with at least one saying he was called the “N-word” by coworkers.

    The men also claim they were paid less money than their white counterparts. That includes an alleged instance where a black employee and plaintiff, Tevin Brown, says he was paid $15 an hour without a raise while a white coworker with no experience was paid $22 an hour.

    The plaintiffs also say they faced retaliation when they complained, enduring threats from managers. At least one man, Garreth Murrell, alleges that he was fired via text message after complaining to an executive above his supervisor.”

63. Tesla Battery Expert Jeff Dahn Raves About New Battery Chemistry

    Professor Jeff Dahn was one of several battery boffins who commented on the findings – he called the new battery chemistry “the most creative I have seen in at least 10 years.”

    “The fact that the LiCl and LiBr reversibly convert and form halogen intercalated graphite is truly incredible,” said Dahn. “The team has demonstrated encouraging reversibility for 150 cycles and has shown that high energy densities should be attainable in 4-volt cells that contain no transition metals and no non-aqueous solvents. It remains to be seen if a practical long-lived commercial cell can be developed, but I am very excited by this research.”

    When Professor Jeff Dahn says he is “very excited by this research”, I suggest we sit up and pay attention!

    1. Cool. I wonder how it compares to (and what Jeff Dahn thinks of) Tesla’s newly acquired battery tech from Maxwell?

       1. IIRC Jeff Dahn was behind the acquisition of Maxwell. He wanted their technology. What would be really interesting is if the technology acquired from Maxwell is applicable to this new chemistry. Chemistry is not my forte but, I doubt it.

          Did you read the article and catch who is doing the research? The CCDC Army Research Laboratory and the University of Maryland. That’s right. The US military!

          1. Maxwell’s dry battery electrode manufacturing process.

             https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/04/the-ultracapacitors-electrodes-battery-manufacturing-tech-tesla-gets-with-maxwell-technologies/

             Dry Battery Electrodes
             Another interesting technology that Maxwell has developed is its dry battery electrode manufacturing process. Maxwell believes it has potential to lower traditional battery manufacturing costs:

             “We believe that our patent-protected, proprietary manufacturing process, which has been utilized through many years of ultracapacitor production, can be applied to the manufacturing of battery electrode without the use of solvents to produce a highly reliable electrode material with uniform characteristics resulting in enhanced product performance, long-term durability, and lower manufacturing cost.” (Maxwell Annual Report, 2017)

             AND

             Chemistry is not my forte but, I doubt it.

             Hey Islandboy, then here;s a song for you. Pay special attention to the Halogen and the Alkali reactions 😉

             https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VgVQKCcfwnU

             1. Both the battery technology and the ultracapacitors make a lot of sense.

                Batteries
                I expect EVs to have twice the range with 1/2 the batteries within 5-10 years. Similar boosts for grid storage.

                Ultracapacitors
                Costs will fall with boosted production to cover increased demand due to reduced cost. You can see where that will go 🙂 They seem ideal as a buffer between battery and charge/discharge. They are happy with brutal cycles while batteries like it steady. Regen braking in vehicles a good example. In grid management they make a perfect buffer between battery banks, grid and solar, again serving a smoothing service.

                I think this may be a huge boost. Oh, did anyone note ‘cobalt free’?

                NAOM

64. First I hear that we can’t go all renewable energy. Then when the economics of wind and solar are getting better than any other energy source, I hear lots of bleating about storage and batteries not being good enough or too expensive.
    Really?
    Why do we need batteries?
    Refrigeration and freezers, we do a lot of that. However most of that draw only need to occur when the sun shines, by using frozen salt water storage. Freeze it during the sunny times or windy times and melt it during the dark and no wind times. With increased insulation, no battery backup will be needed.

    Air conditioning. A large part of the need for air conditioning can be eliminated by better building design. Here too ice storage, formed when the power flows directly, will get the job done. In all cases, ground thermal heat pumps can very efficiently cool or heat buildings as needed, in case of additional demand.
    So none or very little battery storage needed.

    Heating: Mass storage of solar thermal heat, increased insulation and some heat pump should take care of almost all needs. Windows are now available up to R14. In some cases (such as in hospitals or industry)
    the energy used by normal operation will give enough heat to warm the building if properly designed.
    So none to small battery storage needs.

    Vehicles. Electric vehicles carry their own batteries which can be charged during sunny/windy times.

    Night time lighting. Small battery storage for night time LED lighting needs.
    Ventilation- better building design will reduce demand – small need for electrical storage
    Pumps – small need for power storage except in some industrial applications

    Between hydro, pumped hydro, , mass storage of thermal and improved building/facility design the amount of batteries needed will be small compared to assuming we will use outdated and inefficient systems.

    The other caveat is that batteries will improve along with other technologies.
    It all comes down to reducing consumption one way or another and requiring people in developed countries to conserve.

    1. There’s but one, very tiny, teensy, little miniscule problem, with your overall thesis…

       People would have to, Drum roll please! “ACTUALLY CHANGE THE FUCKING WAY, THEY HAVE BEEN DOING THINGS, FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DECADES!”

       Now everyone, nothing to see here, move along and please return to your regularly programmed BAU activities! Because we all know, that doing things differently, is simply not within the realm of the possible! Geez, next thing you know people would start to think… and we sure as hell can’t have that.

       Cheers! And have a nice day!

       1. My thesis was to refute the bullshit about the possibilities. Changing the government and laws to enforce changes is another problem. Not worried about that, fear will soon be a big driver toward change as well as reality causing change (uncontrolled change).

          Whether or not humans as a group change their ways is not a question either, it will happen. The mechanisms and results will vary.

          https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2016/09/22/we-could-power-the-entire-world-by-harnessing-solar-energy-from-1-of-the-sahara/#2278e79fd440

    2. Yeah. Most of what you’re talking about can be described as Demand Side Management: shifting demand to the daytime and windy times. EVs in particular will provide an enormous amount of dynamic storage: a vehicle with 100kWhs can mostly be charged within a 3 day window, which gives great flexibility, and 230M vehicles with even 50kWhs of storage would provide about 12 terawatt hours of storage, or roughly 60 hours of night time demand at 200GW. That’s 5 days of storage!

       1. Yeah, but the grid can’t handle it! /sarc

       2. A local seafood restaurant has just added a large solar array.They get it, you need lots of refrigeration to keep those shrimp fresh and the beers cold. However, much of their business is after dark so why bother with so much juice. Supply grid by day, less refers usage, then use grid by night – save a big lecy bill. It is also a benefit to the grid as, during the day, it feeds a tortillaria and several other businesses, in the next block, that work by day so balancing day and night consumption in the area.

          NAOM

          1. That makes perfect sense, for the moment.

             Eventually the sensible thing for the grid would be time-of-use pricing. When solar production starts to exceed daytime consumption things will change: the price that is paid for net-metered power will become very small.

             Then it will make sense for the restaurant to consume that power themselves. They can turn down it’s thermostats dramatically during the day, throw in some phase-change storage (like salt-water), and then they’ll need to use little power at night.

65. Looking at the flow chart below, I find it interesting that even after subtracting out fugitive emissions that the oil and gas system produces 40 percent of the emissions of road transport.

    

    1. Please post a link to the original as this one is fuzzy and hard to read. (Yep, I did view the image)

       NAOM

       1. http://www.sankey-diagrams.com/world-and-us-ghg-diagrams-from-wri/

          1. Muchisimo gracias.

             NAOM

66. https://electrek.co/2019/05/22/blackbird-100-electric-airplanes/

    BlackBird adding 100+ Bye electric airplanes to on-demand service by 2020, 3x faster and 4x cheaper than driving

    Another disruption?

    Though I think I like the idea of an Electric VTOL even more.
    https://lilium.com/

    Look Ma, no roads or airports.

67. Oh how we lie ourselves and lie some more.

    Scientist Mary Booth says the new drive to burn wood as a replacement for coal is backfiring in the atmosphere.
    https://www.ecoshock.net/downloads/ES_180523_LoFi.mp3

68. Hi all,

    New posts

    http://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-may-22-2019/

    http://peakoilbarrel.com/eia-tight-oil-estimates/

Comments are closed.