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Petroleum Supply Monthly & Other News

11/03/201411/03/2014 Ron Patterson 281 Comments

The EIA just released their Petroleum Supply Monthly where they give their estimates of US crude production as well as the crude production for all states and territories through August 2014.

There was not much movement from anyone in August. Here are the biggest movers:

Change
Total USA 61 kbd
Texas 46 kbd
GOM 21 kbd
North Dakota 18 kbd
Oklahoma -6 kbd
Colorado -9 kbd
Alaska -24 kbd

The data is in kbd with the last data point August 2014.

I have started the data in January 2009 in order to get a better picture of what is really happening.

The above chart is the combined production of both GOM and Pacific offshore.

The EIA is predicting Offshore production to reach 2 million barrels per day by 2016, I really don’t think it is going to make it. They are counting on a lot of new offshore fields that are coming on line to bring it up to that level. While that is happening, what they have underestimated is the very high decline rate of these deep water fields.
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AEO 2015 Preliminary Report

10/30/201410/30/2014 Ron Patterson 311 Comments

The EIA published, last month, AEO2015 Preliminary Oil & Natural Gas
Production & Price Results. And just below the title they wrote:
DRAFT – DO NOT CITE
But I am not citing anything, just informing you of what they said. 😉 What they mean however is that they reserve the right to change their mind before the report comes out early net year. And I can certainly understand that. All Oil data is in million barrels per day.

They have lower 48 production hitting a slowly increasing plateau in 2016 and peaking at just under 8.4 million barrels per day in 2027.

They have US Tight Oil production following pretty much the same profile, hitting a plateau in 2016 at about 5.5 million barrels per day and holding flat until starting a very slow decline in 2030.

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Post Carbon Institute’s LTO Reality Check

10/27/201410/28/2014 Ron Patterson 272 Comments

The Post Carbon Institute has just released a critique of the EIA’s Light Tight Oil projections. It is titled DRILLING DEEPER. The report is highly critical of the EIA’s projections and should be read by everyone interested in Peak Oil.

All data on all charts is in million barrels per day unless otherwise specified.

First a look at the EIA oil projections for US production from all sources. They expect offshore to increase to 2 million barrels per day by 2016, an increase of almost 600,000 bpd from current production. Also note that the EIA has US almost peaking in 2016 and increasing only slightly until the peak in 2019.

The EIA has several projections, covering all bases. However the reference, or most likely, will be the only one covered in this post.
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Texas RRC Oil and Gas Report, August Data

10/21/201410/21/2014 Ron Patterson 511 Comments

The Texas Rail Road Commission just released their oil and gas production report with the August data. As you probably know by now that this data is incomplete. The latest months will all turn down but as more companies report their data, which can be up to two years late, the data will reflect what is actually produced.

There is something strange about the August data however. This is the first time since last November that all four data sets, Crude, Condensate, Gas Well Gas and Casinghead (Associated) gas, are show lower production than the previous month. So keeping in mind that the previous months data was just as incomplete as this months is, the data should, if production is increasing, still show an increase. This month however, it does not.

All oil data is in barrels per day and all Gas data is in MCF per day with the last data point August 2013.

The August crude only data was 124,723 bpd below July.

Texas Condensate was moving up rather smartly until June of 2013. Since then it has been erratic. It is clear that Texas condensate production is not increasing very much and may now actually be declining. Texas condensate (incomplete data) dropped 41,175 bpd, July to August.

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Bakken Oil Production by County

10/18/201410/21/2014 Ron Patterson 213 Comments

North Dakota production by county is posted here: ND Historical Barrels of Oil Produced by County Confidential wells are not included in that data however but that estimated data can be found here:Monthly Production Report Index Click on the latest month.

This is a zero based chart and gives a better overall picture of production from each county. The charts below are not zero based but gives an amplified picture of production from each county.

Production in barrels per day for each county was as follows:
McKenzie 386,715
Mountrail 278,940
Dunn 185,707
Williams 149,437
Rest of ND 131,531

McKenzie county production was up by 16,435 barrels per day. McKenzie remains the most productive county in North Dakota.
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