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July Non-OPEC and World Oil Production
By Ovi
The EIA continues to have problems with updating its World oil production website. Consequently, this month’s report is again a shorter version of previous posts because the EIA’s International Energy Statistics update for June and July is not available. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Brazil, Norway and China are used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction for a few of these countries and the world.
Where STEO data was used, the ratio of C + C to All Liquids was calculated. The average for the last six months up to May was used to project June and July production and in a few cases August production.
World oil production and projection charts are presented at the end of this post.
The current May International Energy Statistics has been updated to correct for the missing condensate production in the previous Russian file and is used for this report.
July Non-OPEC oil production increased by 520 kb/d to 52,245 kb/d and is up 1,706 kb/d from May. Close to 500 kb/d of the June increase is related to the EIA’s condensate correction for Russia in the EIA’s updated May International Energy Statistics. In the previous EIA May report, Russian condensate was not included in Russian production.
Read MoreOpen Thread Non-Petroleum, November 27, 2023
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Read MoreOPEC Update, November 18, 2023
The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for November 2023 was published recently. The last month reported in most of the OPEC charts that follow is October 2023 and output reported for OPEC nations is crude oil output in thousands of barrels per day (kb/d). In many of the OPEC charts that follow the blue line with markers is monthly output and the thin red line is the centered twelve month average (CTMA) output.
EIA Short Term Energy Outlook and Tight Oil Update, November 2023
The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was published in early November. The chart below estimates World C+C by using the STEO forecast combined with past data from the EIA on World Output.
The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was revised lower in November compared to September (we skipped the October STEO). World C+C output is expected to decrease in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2023 and then increase over the next 5 quarters. Annual average World C+C output increases by about 1028 kb/d Mb/d in 2023 to 81804 kb/d and then to 82555 kb/d in 2024, about 445 kb/d below the centered 12 month average peak in 2018. This month’s World C+C estimates are about 400 kb/d lower than September’s estimate for 2023 and 1150 kb/d lower for 2024 due to the revisions in the STEO forecast since Sept 2023.
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