The EIA just released their International Energy Statistics with world production numbers through October 2014. There were no big surprises in this report.
World C+C production was up 731,000 bpd to 78,967,000 bpd. This is a new high.
All the gain in the last few years has come from non-OPEC. Non-OPEC production was up 374 kbd in September and up another 370 kbd in October to 46,002,000 bpd.
The North Dakota Industrial Commission has released the Bakken and North Dakota monthly production numbers for December 2014. There was a bit of a surprise as Bakken and all North Dakota production was up just over 39,000 barres per day.
Since Bakken production was up at almost the exact same amount as the rest of North Dakota, (Bakken up 39,080 kbd vs. 39,086 bpd for ND), suggest that all the wells being brought on line are Bakken and Three Forks rather than conventional wells.
The North Dakota change per month, 12 month trailing average reached a new high in December of 25,006 barrels per day. That means North Dakota oil production was up an average of 25 thousand barrels per day every month in 2014.
The latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is out with all the OPEC crude only production numbers for January 2015. There were very little revisions in the December numbers this month.
Total OPEC production of crude only was down 53,000 barrels per day in January to 30,153,000 barrels per day of crude only.
Algerian production has leveled out in the last year and a half but down slightly the last couple of months. January production slipped 13,000 bpd to 1,130,000 bpd.
The EIA, in their INTERNATIONAL ENERGY OUTLOOK 2014 publishes what they call “World crude and lease condensate production by region and country, 2009-2040, (Table A5). Since I only track C+C, or Crude Only in the case of OPEC, I thought it would be interesting to see where they thought C+C production was headed in the next 25 years.
An note about the charts below. The EIA data in this report only uses historical data for 2009 thru 2011. However I extended that historical data through 2014. The data for 2014 is the average C+C production January through September. Also note that the historical data is yearly but the projected data is in 5 year intervals, 2020 through 2040. All data is in thousand barrels per day.
The EIA is expecting world C+C production to be over 99 million million barrels day in 2040, or about 22 million barrels per day higher than today. And just where do they expect all this oil to come from?
They expect about two thirds of that increase to come from OPEC. They have OPEC increasing production by almost 14.1 million barrels per day by 2040. The “Call on OPEC” is going to get quite large. They don’t say which countries all this oil will come from but they say 11.5 million barrels per day will come from the Middle east, 900 kbd from North Africa, 1 Million barrels per day from West Africa and 700 kbd from South America.
