Uncategorized – Page 120 – Peak Oil Barrel

Oil Shipments by Rail Declining

07/17/201507/17/2015 Ron Patterson 608 Comments

Weekly oil shipments by rail can be found on the web at Weekly Carload Reports. And a summation of that data with charts can be found at Association of American Railroads Freight Rail Traffic Data.

Crude oil by rail basically started with the shale boom. Prior to that almost all oil was shipped by pipeline. Of course a lot of oil was trucked to the pipelines. The EIA says in the first seven months of 2014 8 percent of all us crude and refined products was shipped by rail. It looks like that percentage was increased somewhat in the second half of 2014.

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OPEC Production Still Increasing

07/13/201507/13/2015 Ron Patterson 442 Comments

The July OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is out with all OPEC Crude Only production data for June 2015.

Crude Only production for the entire OPEC 12 as up 283,000 barrels per day in June to 31,378,000 bpd. But that was after May production had been revised up by 120,000 bpd. So counting May’s revisions and June’s numbers, OPEC production was up 403,000 bpd from what was originally reported last month.

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The EIA’s Short-Term Guessing Game + Bakken Data

07/10/201507/11/2015 Ron Patterson 284 Comments

The Bakken and North Dakota production data fir May is in.

Bakken production was up 33,352 bpd and North Dakota production was up 32,114 bpd. This is quite a shocker. I had not expected production to be up this much. Bakken barrels per day, in May, stood at 1,142,034 and all North Dakota barrels per day was at 1,201,159.

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Oil Shock Models with Different Ultimately Recoverable Resources of Crude plus Condensate (3100 Gb to 3700 Gb)

07/06/201511/14/2019 D Coyne 340 Comments

This is a guest post by Dennis Coyne

The views expressed are those of Dennis Coyne and do not necessarily reflect the views of Ron Patterson.

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The post that follows relies heavily on the previous work of both Paul Pukite (aka Webhubbletelescope) and Jean Laherrere and I thank them both for sharing their knowledge, any mistakes are my responsibility.

In a previous post I presented a simplified Oil Shock model that closely followed a 2013 estimate of World C+C Ultimately Recoverable Resources (URR) by Jean Laherrere of 2700 Gb, where 2200 Gb was from crude plus condensate less extra heavy oil (C+C-XH) and 500 Gb was from extra heavy (XH) oil resources in the Canadian and Venezuelan oil sands.

In the analysis here I use the Hubbert Linearization (HL) method to estimate World C+C-XH URR to be about 2500 Gb. The creaming curve method preferred by Jean Laherrere suggests the lower URR of 2200 Gb, if we assume only 200 Gb of future reserve growth and oil discovery.

Previously, I have shown that US oil reserve growth (of proved plus probable reserves) was 63% from 1980 to 2005. If we assume all of the 200 Gb of reserves added to the URR=2200 Gb model are from oil discoveries and that in a URR=2500 Gb, oil discoveries are also 200 Gb, then 300 Gb of reserve growth would be needed over all future years (we will use 90 years to 2100) or about 35% reserve growth on the 850 Gb of 2P (proved plus probable) reserves in 2010. I conclude that a URR of 2500 Gb for C+C-XH is quite conservative.

A problem with the Hubbert Linearization method is that there is a tendency to underestimate URR.

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The EIA’s Questionable Numbers

07/02/201507/02/2015 Ron Patterson 509 Comments

The EIA’s, on June 30th, published its Petroleum Supply Monthly. I Think their numbers are just way too high. I compared them with the EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report. The chart below shows the Results.

I averaged the weekly numbers and converted them to monthly data. They were pretty close for the first three months of 2014 but then they begin to diverge. Of course they were much closer earlier but in the Petroleum Supply Monthly has, over several months, been revised upward. The Weekly Petroleum Status Report is never revised.

In April, the Petroleum Supply Monthly shows US C+C production 322,000 barrels per day above the weekly average of the Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

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