Uncategorized – Page 111 – Peak Oil Barrel

OPEC’s 2015 World Oil Outlook

12/25/201512/25/2015 Ron Patterson 463 Comments

The OPEC 2015 World Oil Outlook came out a few days ago. They basically produce two outlooks, a medium term outlook to 2020 and a long term outlook to 2040. I found their medium term outlook pessimistic in some cases to optimistic in others. But I found their long term outlook to be wildly optimistic… in most cases.

In all cases below I chart crude when it is available and “liquids” only when no other option is available. The data is in million barrels per day.

Here is their medium term outlook chart. Notice they expect both OPEC and Non-OPEC crude to decline in 2016 but Non-OPEC crude starts a slow recovery in 2017. They say OPEC crude will not start their recovery until 2019.

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All Roads Lead To Peak Oil

12/21/201512/21/2015 Ron Patterson 545 Comments

I follow the JODI World Oil Database primarily because it is now four months ahead of the EIA international data base. I make some adjustments however. I use the OPEC MOMR “secondary sources” for all OPEC data where JODI also uses the MOMR but uses their “direct communication” data instead. The OPEC portion of the JODI data is “crude only” and will therefore be somewhat less than the EIA reports.

I use the Canadian National Energy Base data for Canada instead of the strange numbers JODI has for Canada. And I use the EIA data for the few small producers that JODI does not report.

With these Changes I think I have composed an excellent World Oil Database from this composite data. And with the October data just released I have composed the below charts. The data is through October and is in thousand barrels per day.

World oil production peaked, so far, in July at 76,702,000 barrels per day and in October stood at 76,128,000 bpd or 574,000 bpd below the peak.

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Texas RRC Oil and Gas Production

12/18/201512/18/2015 Ron Patterson 223 Comments

The Texas RRC Oil and Gas production data is out. All the RRC data below is through October 2015 and all the EIA data below is through September 2015.

Important: All the Texas RRC data is incomplete, especially the latter months. They will be revised upward as the Texas RRC gathers more data. The EIA data is what the EIA expects the final data will look like.