Peak Oil Barrel

Open Thread Non-Petroleum, July 3, 2025

Ovi

Comments not related to oil or natural gas production in this thread please. Thanks.

Ovi

49 responses to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum, July 3, 2025”

  1. John Norris

    FAO [Global] Food Price Index [red line] up slightly in June on higher meat, dairy and vegetable oil prices…

  2. Alimbiquated

    Trump is “fixing” climate change, it seems.
    https://www.unsw.edu.au/newsroom/news/2025/07/mauna-loa-observatory-climate-change-us-plans-to-shut-it-down

    1. hightrekker

      “War is Peace,” “Freedom is Slavery,” and “Ignorance is Strength”
      Trump is in danger of plagiarism?

    2. LeeG

      This is so damn depressing.

  3. old chemist

    Electricity Storage
    BC Hydro generates nearly all of the provincial power requirement from Hydro, but it also has a connection to the US power grid , and has a dedicated department which buys US power when it is cheap and sells power to the US when prices are high , simply by using the zero cost option of modulating flows from the hydroelectric reservoirs.
    For full year 2023, exports were sold at an average price of $168 / MWh, and purchased at an average price of $92 /MWh ( including a few occasions where they were paid to take the power). This price differential of $76/MWh ( or roughly $55 USD) would seem to represent a realistic market value for stored electrical power in the western region.
    I wonder if batteries and other storage schemes are profitable at this valuation?

    1. kolbeinih

      Old Chemist

      If the circumstances are right (precipitation, water fall, access to grid) nothing beats hydro power as pure battery for the electricity grid. I left out the most important parameter which is magazine capacity. It either comes naturally due to favorable circumstances in nature or in the form of often big human constructs in the form of dam projects. The problem with this is that the dam must hold and be maintained and can disturb a lot of other usages of land and water.

      If you take one of the best natural water magazines in Norway (Blåsjø) which produces 8 twh annually, it has already been targeted with pumped hydro installed. It gives 80% +/- efficiency as compared to just using turbines in place, so why not invest a little extra? In Sweden they wanted to expand and actually double the turbine capacity for existing hydro power facilities to facilitate more flexible power to accommodate wind power coming online in the south. How costly it becomes and exactly where to build grid improvements as a consequence of that being a main headache.

      In circumstances where cheap hydro don’t have the reach, battery becomes one of the storage options. But I don’t think it actually will become “really cheap”, meaning adapting demand to renewable supply will be important going forward. Batteries can stabilise the grid right away and sufficient fossil fuel back up will only mask the challenges of supply driven electricity.

      There are actually examples of buildouts of hydro power recently in areas with a lot of precipitation and steep water fall (to be encapsulated in tunnels). The magazine capacity is not built out, so output will only be seasonal. The reliance is on the grid for it to be a positive investment, since capacity to balance out everything else is actually not there.

    2. Hickory

      “I wonder if batteries and other storage schemes are profitable at this valuation?”
      In most countries/regions hydroelectric power is in short supply, and in those places other schemes are economically competitive.

  4. Survivalist

    Greenland is absolutely fascinating! It’s turning itself into Swiss Cheese on a Water Slide™

    https://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst_outlook/maps/d7-10/gfs_arc-lea_t2max_d7-10.png

    1. Kleiber

      Check out what’s going on with the SMOC in the south.

      https://www.icm.csic.es/en/news/major-reversal-ocean-circulation-detected-southern-ocean-key-climate-implications

    2. WeekendPeak

      Thanks for posting that.
      rgds
      WP

  5. D C

    US energy since 1776.

    https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65644

    1. Hickory

      It will be an interesting thing to see if a huge chunk of US coal energy potential stays in ground for the long term.

    2. Iron Mike

      Hickory,

      It will get exported like it is now:

      https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=66&t=2

      https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/hefty-us-thermal-coal-exports-look-set-keep-climbing-2025-maguire-2024-12-12/

    3. D C

      US coal production from https://www.eia.gov/coal/data.php#production

  6. Doug Leighton

    GLOBAL CARBON EMISSIONS REACH RECORD HIGH DESPITE GREEN EFFORTS

    The Review breaks down carbon emissions into several categories, but the most comprehensive metric is total carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2-equivalent emissions). This includes emissions from energy use, flaring, industrial processes, and methane associated with fossil fuel production, transportation, and distribution. As defined in the Review, CO2-equivalent emissions represent the sum of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels, flaring, and industrial processes—plus methane emissions converted into their carbon dioxide equivalent. This approach provides a fuller picture of each country’s contribution to atmospheric carbon levels. While land use changes like deforestation are not included, the inclusion of methane—a far more potent greenhouse gas than CO2—makes this a more accurate measure of atmospheric impact.

    https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/Global-Carbon-Emissions-Reach-Record-High-Despite-Green-Efforts.html

  7. Doug Leighton

    Donald Trump is a fucking moron.

    MAUNA LOA OBSERVATORY CAPTURED THE REALITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE: THE US PLANS TO SHUT IT DOWN

    “In 1956, United States scientist Charles Keeling chose Hawaii’s Mauna Loa volcano as the site of a new atmospheric measuring station. It was ideal, located in the middle of the Pacific Ocean and at high altitude away from the confounding influence of population centers. Data collected by Mauna Loa from 1958 onwards let us clearly see the evidence of climate change for the first time. The station samples the air and measures global CO₂ levels. Charles Keeling and his successors used this data to produce the famous Keeling curve—a graph showing carbon dioxide levels increasing year after year.

    But this precious record is in peril. US President Donald Trump has decided to defund the observatory recording the data, as well as the widespread US greenhouse gas monitoring network and other climate measuring sites.”

    https://phys.org/news/2025-07-mauna-loa-observatory-captured-reality.html

    1. Bob Nickson

      Doug, you should provide attribution for direct quotes. 😉

      “Donald Trump is a fucking moron.”
      – Rex Tillerson, U.S. Secretary of State, first Trump administration.

    2. Doug Leighton

      Bob —

      “Donald Trump is a fucking moron.” Is my opinion. I thought that was obvious.

    3. Huntingtonbeach

      Doug, your situation could be worse

      “I’ve got morons on my team” – Butch Cassidy & the Sundance Kid

      https://www.youtube.com/shorts/C9iPKh5RJiU

    4. Bob Nickson

      Yes, quite right, it was.

    5. Nitelight

      It shouldn’t be the role of government to fund the climate change industry. The observatory can be continued through private contributions if the people who use the data want to step up.

    6. Iver

      Doug

      What is the point of Mauna Loa?

      It is like watching the altimeter of a plane whose engines have failed.

      iver

    7. LeeG

      The country has the leader who best represents it. A nation of morons.

  8. hightrekker

    Elon Musk Blasts ‘Fat, Drunken Slob’ Steve Bannon: ‘Will Go Back To Prison and This Time for a Long Time’

    Now comrades, lets talk like our Repug Friends.

    1. Survivalist

      Interesting to note that throwing Nazi Salutes is a rather significant impediment to sales in Europe, and not much of one at all in the USA.

      https://youtu.be/ToKcmnrE5oY?si=jSqIFhIfLYOGjEmM

  9. sgp99

    You people keep saying Trump this, Trump that, but you do realize that the American people elected him twice, and he almost won 2020 as well.

    Are you therefore, also impugning the American people? See, what I notice is extreme cognitive dissonance. On the one hand, you guys are very vocal in disliking Trump. But you will never, ever say that you dislike the American people. Even though those are the people that put Trump into office! That’s how a democracy works.

    You can’t have it both ways. If Trump is bad, so are the people who voted for him, when they had alternatives.

    1. Bob Nickson

      No. I have many friends and family who are Trump supports. They are good people who I love and respect in many ways. It is perfectly human to still like folks that you disagree with.
      A person’s judgement is only as good as their information, and we often see the world not as it is, but as we ourselves are, but some truths are self evident, like the fact that Trump is a fucking moron. 😉

    2. Mike

      Now as I understand it from over here in Europe, it was only 40% of the American people of voting age who elected Trump. An almost equal number voted for Harris, and a very significant proportion did not vote at all. So using the logic SGP99 seems to be using, anti-Trumpists are impugning, not the American people, but only some of the American people. And in fact they do not impugn all of those pro-Trumpists, because they recognise that many of those voters made an honest, if misguided choice, in choosing MAGAman instead of Harris. They were voting in what they thought were in the best interests of the US or the American people. So no, SPG99, it is not “If Trump is bad, so are the people who voted for him, when they had alternatives.” as you put it, but rather “Trump is indsputably bad, but the people who voted for him made a genuine mistake out of the best of intentions.”

    3. klio

      31.6%, not 40.
      31.9 against, 36 did not vote.

    4. LeeG

      Oh come on, there are good people on both sides.

    5. sgp99

      I agree, I’m just pointing out the cognitive dissonance.

      The left in America has the point of view that people are good, progress is possible, and that a utopian future in America where we all are center left, get along, and everything is perfect, is achievable. But that was always a dream that was never going to become reality.

      And there are specific peope in America that foreclose on that dream: corporations and the rednecks who vote for them. And they are going to be around forever, because they are the people of the United States. It’s actually a demographic and cultural phenomenon, and it’s not going to change or go away. They will be here, voting for the same future Republicans, in 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060, 2070, 2080, 2090, 2100.

      Just like in every other country, they too will have their own people, with their own ideas, etc. Everything in this world comes from people themselves, nothing is really imposed from the top down. Systems are always reflective of what the people want.

      Trump is America, America is Trump. They cannot be separated.

    6. Klio

      Don’t forget that only 31.6% of the voters went to vote for Trump, of course they are Law abiding citizens. Still thats less than 1/3 of the age ready voters.
      If gas tanks are filled @ $1.99, they will feel vindicated.

    7. Survivalist

      Garbage In,
      Garbage Out.

    8. Sheng Wu

      compared to East or Asia countries (not just communist China), it is quite clear contrast that the “law and order” have been disbanded by the left-extremists in the west, and same for the “energy” policy.

    9. D C

      Sheng Wu,

      It is those on the right in the US that seem to not think the rule of law should be followed, that is Trump and his enablers.

    10. Sheng Wu

      When FDR was elected and came to office, the mainstream media had an editorial — “even FDR burns down the Capital hill, we will support him”. Then, majority banks already closed for 2 months, and Hitler just burnt the congress.

    11. Alimbiquated

      Which publication did you get that quote from?

      I don’t think the phrase “mainstream media” existed at the time –it’s an anachronism. You’re trying to apply early 21st century myths to early 20th century events.

      Anachronisms are always a tell that someone is inventing history. Examples include the gospel depictions of Jesus debating Pharisees in Galilee (there were no Pharisees there at the time), or Trump claiming the Continental Army “took over the airports” in the late 18th century.

      You seem to get your information from ideolog- heavy web sites.

    12. Sheng Wu

      It is Time and Will Rogers,
      https://content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,954983-6,00.html
      This was the spirit of the Hundred Days. Action, and action now. Said Will Rogers: “The whole country is with him, just so he does something. If he burned down the Capitol, we would cheer and say, ‘Well, we at least got a fire started anyhow.’ “

  10. Ervin

    I had to agree with a comic who said,
    Replacing Biden with Harris was like changing your shirt after shitting your pants.

    1. Survivalist

      “Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.”

  11. Iver

    Now, it is too late.

    I’ve never said this before to the media, but it’s too late. I say that because I go by science and Johan Rockström, the Swedish scientist who heads the Potsdam Institute, has defined nine planetary boundaries. These are constraints on how we live. As long as humans, like any other animal, live within those nine constraints, we can do it forever, and that includes the amount of carbon in the atmosphere, the pH of the oceans, the amount of available fresh water, the nitrogen cycle, etc.

    There are nine planetary boundaries and we’ve only dealt with one of them — the ozone layer — and we think we’ve saved ourselves from that threat. But we passed the seventh boundary this year, and we’re in the extreme danger zone. Rockström says we have five years to get out of the danger zone.

    If we pass one boundary, we should be shitting our pants. We’ve passed seven!

    https://www.ipolitics.ca/2025/07/02/its-too-late-david-suzuki-says-the-fight-against-climate-change-is-lost/

    1. JJHMAN

      Johan Rockström must be a member of the “climate change industry” noted above. I assume, of course, that that industry is primarily focused on recording the path to extinction that industrial society is so feverishly pursuing.

    2. iver

      Many people don’t understand how the world’s complex balancing mechanisms are failing.

      https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/planetary-boundaries.html

      So don’t feel bad.

    3. JJHMAN

      Perhaps my sarcasm is too subtle. It’s “recording” not “inventing”

  12. hightrekker

    AP:The US predicted 90 trade deals in 90 days. So far there have been 2

    2 is not bad for a Trump play.

    1. JJHMAN

      ..and we don’t yet know how much damage the two are going to cause.

    2. hightrekker

      maybe?

      https://bsky.app/profile/squirrels1963.bsky.social/post/3ltiroiffds2y

  13. Doug Leighton

    Peak oil? I wonder.

    BRAZIL, GUYANA, ARGENTINA FUEL A NEW OIL BOOM

    • At the recent BRICS summit, leaders reaffirmed the continued role of fossil fuels in emerging markets, citing the resource wealth of member states like Brazil and Venezuela.
    • Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina are seeing surging investment from global oil majors.
    • Exxon, Chevron, and others are increasingly eyeing South America for low-cost, low-emission production as shale basins mature and geopolitical risks remain lower than elsewhere.

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Brazil-Guyana-Argentina-Fuel-a-New-Oil-Boom.html

  14. Ovi

    A new Open Thread Non-Petroleum has been posted.

    https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-july-10-2025/

    An update to World and Non-OPEC production has been posted.

    https://peakoilbarrel.com/march-world-and-non-opec-oil-production-rises/

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