August 2023 – Peak Oil Barrel

STEO and Tight Oil Update, August 2023

08/31/202309/02/2023 D Coyne 161 Comments

The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was published in early August. The chart below estimates World C+C by using the STEO forecast combined with past data from the EIA on World Output.

The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was revised higher in August compared to July. World C+C output is expected to decrease in the second and third quarters of 2023 and then increase over the next 5 quarters. Annual average World C+C output increases by about 1000 kb/d in 2023 to 81743 kb/d and then to 82967 kb/d in 2024, less than 50 kb/d below the centered 12 month average peak in 2018. This month’s World C+C estimates are about 300 kb/d higher than last month for 2023 and 400 kb/d higher for 2024 due to the revisions in the STEO forecast this month.

Open Thread Non-Petroleum, August 31, 2023

08/31/202308/31/2023 D Coyne 69 Comments

Comments not related to oil or natural gas production in this thread please. Thanks.

OPEC MOMR, August 2023

08/19/202308/19/2023 D Coyne 227 Comments

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for August 2023 was published recently. The last month reported in most of the OPEC charts that follow is July 2023 and output reported for OPEC nations is crude oil output in thousands of barrels per day (kb/d). In many of the OPEC charts that follow the blue line with markers is monthly output and the thin red line is the centered twelve month average (CTMA) output.

Open Thread Non-Petroleum, August 19, 2023

08/19/202308/19/2023 D Coyne 175 Comments

Comments not related to oil or natural gas production in this thread please. Thanks.

April Non-OPEC and World Oil Production Drops

08/10/202308/10/2023 Ovi 277 Comments

By Ovi

Below are a number of Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production charts, usually shortened to “oil”, for Non-OPEC countries. The charts are created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and are updated to April 2023. This is the latest and most detailed world oil production information available. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Russia, Brazil, Norway and China is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction for a few of these countries and the world. The US report has an expanded view beyond production by adding rig and frac spread charts.

Where STEO data was used, the ratio of C + C to All Liquids was calculated. The average for the last six months was used to project the May and June production numbers in a few cases.

World oil production and projection charts are presented at the end of this post.

April Non-OPEC oil production dropped by 407 kb/d to 51,049 kb/d. The largest decreases came from Canada, US and Russia.

Using data from the August 2023 STEO, a projection for Non-OPEC oil output was made for the period May 2023 to December 2024. (Red graph). Output is expected to reach 53,195 kb/d in December 2024, which is 787 kb/d higher than the December 2019 peak of 52,408 kb/d.