July 2023 – Peak Oil Barrel

STEO and Tight Oil Update, July 2023

07/26/202307/26/2023 D Coyne 228 Comments

The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was published in early July. The chart below estimates World C+C by using the STEO forecast combined with past data from the EIA on World Output.

This month we have actual EIA data for 2023Q1 which increases the annual rate of increase for the forecast period compared to last month by 600 kb/d, part of the reason is an 800 kb/d forecasted drop in output from Q1 to Q2 of 2023. If we use the 2023Q1 to 2024Q4 trend the annual rate of increase is 911 kb/d, about a 100 kb/d increase from last month’s estimate. The trend from 2022Q1 to 2024Q4 is similar at about 916 kb/d. If this forecast through 2024Q4 is roughly correct, I expect increases in output after 2024 will be considerably lower, I also think this STEO forecast is optimistic. Annual average output in 2022 was 80.74 Mb/d and increases to 81.4 Mb/d in 2023 and to 82.6 Mb/d in 2024. These annual averages are 0.25 Mb/d less in 2023 and similar for 2024 as last month’s estimates.

Open Thread Non-Petroleum, July 26, 2023

07/26/202307/26/2023 D Coyne 102 Comments

Comments not related to Oil or Natural Gas production in this thread please. Thank you.

OPEC Update, July 2023

07/19/202307/19/2023 D Coyne 282 Comments

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for July 2023 was published recently. The last month reported in most of the OPEC charts that follow is June 2023 and output reported for OPEC nations is crude oil output in thousands of barrels per day (kb/d). In many of the OPEC charts that follow the blue line with markers is monthly output and the thin red line is the centered twelve month average (CTMA) output.

Open Thread Non-Petroleum, July 19, 2023

07/19/202307/19/2023 D Coyne 96 Comments

Comments not related to Oil or Natural Gas production in this thread please. Thank you.

March 2023 Non-OPEC Oil Production Drops

07/12/202307/15/2023 Ovi 301 Comments

A post by Ovi

Below are a number of Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production charts, usually shortened to “oil”, for Non-OPEC countries. Normally the charts are created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics in the first week of the month. Unfortunately the EIA was not able to update the production information for March until today. Consequently the charts below are produced from a mixture of country specific sites such as Brazil, Norway and China and the July STEO and the International report. The International report was used to update the March production data.

Where STEO data was used, the ratio of C + C to All Liquids was calculated. The average from the last six months was used to project the March production numbers and extended to May in a few cases.

World oil production charts are found at the end of this post.

March Non-OPEC oil production dropped by 268 kb/d to 51,434 kb/d. The largest decreases came from the Russia, 300 kb/d and Brazil 146 kb/d.