Dean Fantazzini recently updated his estimates for Texas Oil and Natural gas. Data from the Texas Railroad Commission has improved so correction factors are smaller, the estimates from Dean now match the estimates by the US EIA fairly closely for Crude plus condensate (C+C) produced in Texas.
There was a noticeable change in the Texas data about 6 months ago so I show an estimate based on the correction factors from the previous 6 months. Dean prefers to show an estimate based on all the data (which he has done for many months) and an estimate based on the most recent 3 months of data (which has been presented more recently). The EIA estimate is more consistent with the 3 month or 6 month estimate with the “all vintage data” estimate being somewhat higher.
For Jan 2017 the estimates for the 3 month, 6 month, and EIA estimates are 3196, 3191, and 3195 kb/d respectively for Texas C+C output. The “all vintage data” estimate is about 200 kb/d higher than the others.
In the future I will drop the all vintage data estimate.
The natural gas estimate is shown below.
Enno Peters recently updated his Eagle Ford region estimate which includes all horizontal well output from Districts 1 to 5 in Texas. I modified this by finding the percentage of total Texas output from this region relative to the Texas RRC Statewide output estimate. Then the EIA’s Texas C+C production estimate was multiplied by the previous percentage to obtain a new Eagle Ford region estimate. Enno’s estimate is labelled “shale profile”, my estimate is labelled “modified SP” where SP is Shale Profile.