287 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum, June 21, 2019”

    1. This is precisely why having a moron like Trump at the helm is the worst possible case scenario for the interests of the US and what used to be US allies, who are now pretty much having to fend for themselves in a very unstable world. This is not your father’s world any more, not by a very long shot!

      1. “The big lie technique works when all levels of communication are controlled. Otherwise it makes you the laughing stock, which Trump will be at the G20 before he leaves”

      2. “Certainly, we are pessimistic about the Americans. We do not trust them. We consider the government of the United States of America as an unreliable, arrogant, illogical, and trespassing government”

        —Ali Khamenei

    3. Thanks for sharing that presentation on China OFM.
      This is from the Canadian Broadcasting Service- well done.

      I suspect China may give trump a trade bill that will allow him to increase his chance of reelection. They know he is dramatically weakening the global geo-political position of the USA.

    4. Watching that video was very thought provoking. Got me to wondering just what exactly Jamaica has that China wants? The ports? The bauxite? Something else? There is a virtual Chines invasion happening in Jamaica with most of the major infrastructure works being done by China Harbour Engineering Company. This has led to an infusion of trucks and I suspect other heavy equipment is soon too follow.

      Initially all the excavators, graders and other construction equipment on these work sites were from Cat, Volvo, JCB, Komatsu, Hyundai and such well known international brands but, increasingly I am seeing equipment with the name SANY on it. In the area of trucks, historically many of the trucks used in the island by individual truckers or small trucking companies, were imported from the UK and less so the US, as parts (scrap) and assembled by the importers to the buyers specifications. Bigger companies bought used or brand new trucks primarily from US or Japanese brands like International, Freightliner, Isuzu or Hino. Now we are seeing brand new trucks from Chinese brands like Foton and Shacman with local dealers. A lot of them are dump trucks but increasingly we’re seeing other types of trucks like concrete mixers and tractor heads (articulated trucks). Even the state run urban transit company’s last significant batch of new buses was from China and most of the buses I have seen on trips along the north coast, shuttling tourists from the Montego Bay airport to the various resorts, are branded King Long (Chinese). Obviously the vehicles appear to be good value for money or people wouldn’t be buying them. I suspect the sight of the Chinese contractors preferring Chines equipment over other well known international brands has made locals more willing to try their luck with the trucks that, are obviously priced to sell.

      The Japanese still have most of the light vehicle market sewn up with German brands and Korean brands making up the balance. Japanese brands are seen as the benchmark for basic build quality and reliability and Toyota literally dominates the market for buses with between 15 and 30 seats. A market ripe for disruption by the Chinese? Since the perception of Chinese cars and light vehicles, based on the relatively small numbers that have been imported, is that they are nowhere close to the Japanese, it remains to be seen when and how the Chinese will be able to make inroads into these markets.

      Another phenomenon that has swept the island is the literal overwhelming of the local wholesale and retail trade in household products and appliances. All of the affordable stuff is Chinese with people who can afford it buying Japanese or Korean brands. The main thing about this trend is that the vast majority of the wholesale and retail outlets in all the major towns are operated by Chinese immigrants. It is almost creepy the way the Chinese have displaced locals in the retail trade, selling everything from food to general household goods. They are big in cosmetics and beauty care products, selling everything a girl could want to put herself together from fake hair and nails to makeup. Do I even need to mention footwear and clothing? I have a strong suspicion that much of what is being sold is often counterfeit as evidenced by the occasional arrest and conviction of “Chinese businessmen” for dealing in counterfeit goods.

      I am seeing the early signs of a situation where China makes everything. For anybody that lives in a country that is being swamped by Chinese companies and goods it already is beginning to feel like that. Certainly in the case of electronic appliances. How long before the Chinese are making all our vehicles too? Is this just a case of the Jamaican market being too small and easy to conquer? It would be interesting to hear from other parts of the developing world.

      Here’s another interesting video on Shenzen:

      Inside China’s High-Tech Dystopia

      1. Other folks mileage will differ, but I’m a Darwinian pure and simple when it comes to interpreting the broad outlines of the behavior of men and of countries.

        There’s a very famous saying, to the effect that England has permanent interests, but not permanent friends, which we all know about at the personal relationship level, having seen lots of friendships, marriages and family relationships explode like grenades or rot slowly like forgotten potatoes under the sink.

        The Chinese, in my estimation, are doing a great job building themselves a colonial empire along the lines of what so many Americans who don’t care for their country’s policies describe as the “American empire”. We have one, of a sort, sure enough, but it’s built mostly on enormous soft power, the power of money, manufacturing, finance, prestige, rather than mostly on military power, as was the case of the British Empire and most other historical empires.

        With their enormous cash reserves, low domestic wages, and in recent years, decent quality goods ( in relation to the price thereof) China is positioned to move into a poor country and simply chase out everybody else, as Islandboy describes the situation in his country. In the end, Jamaica will likely be a defacto Chinese colony, a source of raw materials, and a market for Chinese goods, with Chinese nationals or immigrants or bankers back in China owning the larger part of everything, with local people paying rent to absentee Chinese landlords, etc.

        There’s nothing unusual about this sort of thing, it’s just the modern version of going to war to get what you want. This modern version relies on power OTHER than the power of the gun…… but the Chinese are building guns too, and if they manage to hold on, and not crash and burn, within a few more decades, they will just about for dead sure be running things all over Asia, with the exception of India and Pakistan, and have wrested geopolitical control of South and Central America away from us Yankees by way of financing and building just about everything that GETS FINANCED and BUILT south of Mexico.

        I believe Socrates said that only the dead are finished with war.

        Anybody who has one real course in biology at the university level understands that competition, and the survival of the fittest, is not JUST a cliche.

        It’s reality, across the board, alpha to omega, in the biosphere, and nations are no more than aggregations of people working together, to a greater or lesser extent. Hence, nations compete, just as individuals compete.

        Having said this much, I should also point out that nations and people compete most effectively by working together, by forming alliances, which in biological terms is simply another level of competition, this time alliance versus alliance, rather than individual versus individual or nation versus nation.

        I’m painting damned fast with a very broad brush, but so far as I’m concerned, anybody who doesn’t GET IT, who doesn’t understand what I’m trying to get across, is technically illiterate, as evidenced by his failure to understand the abc’s of biology, which are quite as well established as the abc’s of physics.

        We’re animals, in the first and the last analysis. A hammer is just an advanced version of the rock a chimp uses to crack nuts.

        1. I think maybe you under estimate American military influence

          1. I don’t think the US military can accomplish much these days for multiple reasons.

            1. WWII mobilized the country to accomplish one thing: beat the Germans and the Japanese. Our citizens have never been asked to unify and sacrifice around a common goal since.

            2. We are spending too much money preparing for conventional warfare, and not protecting ourselves enough from cyberwar and propaganda.

            3. Trump is alienating current and potential allies rather than forming alliances to win a future war.

            4. Multinational companies have goals that extend beyond national boundaries. Winning and losing wars are not as neatly defined as they were in previous eras.

          2. The Pentagon can bomb things and destroy conventional armies, but the country has no ability to use that to its advantage, as Bush I & II proved.

            In fact, the country can’t even defend itself from foreign attacks on voting machines.

            1. Exactly. Dropping bombs doesn’t mean we have control or influence over the areas we might destroy.

            2. If anything, getting the US to spend even more money on conventional weaponry strikes me as a “rope-a-dope” strategy. The more money our country spends preparing for the last war, the less money we spend on actions which might actually help us better survive the future.

            3. Meanwhile China is busy buying votes in the UN among other things. Exhibit below, the picture on the left is a major intersection in Kingston, Jamaica before a Chinese funded and implemented project to improve traffic flow through the intersection. On the right is a recent picture of the yet to be completed project.

              This intersection carries the vast majority of the traffic heading from the wharves and the container terminal heading north or west. It carries most of the traffic heading from the airport to all points west of Kingston. It carries most of the traffic heading from Kingston to a large dormitory community to the south west. The road heading west (left) in the picture leads straight to the main highway leading west out of Kingston and connecting to the toll roads connecting Kingston to the west and north of the island. Expansion and flow improvement work has recently been completed on the main highway courtesy of China. The road connecting the center of the city to this intersection is also being expanded into a four lane divided road, again courtesy of China. They are also expanding road connecting the center of the city to the main road heading to the north-east to a four lane divided roadway.

              There is also ongoing boom in the construction of multistory buildings all over the capital city, being carried out by Chinese construction firms, more likely than not, funded by Chinese financial institutions. As soon as one project is finished the construction crane with the company’s name or logo on it, pops up somewhere else!

              After all the road work is done and citizens of the island are happy with the improved traffic flow who is the Jamaican government going to side with on the world stage?

            4. China has been around a long time, they play the long game. In the USA it is about grabbing points for the next election, maximum pressure for – oops – no results (see Iran, NK, Ven, China, Mexico).

              NAOM

            5. Recently I have wondered if China could help Mexico with the immigrant issue. Put factories there which are so appealing that no one wants to cross the border into the US. Plus it would put China at our doorstep.

              Since it hasn’t happened yet, I assume there is a reason. But it seems like a great opportunity to remove a talking point from Trump, make China look like a hero, and move into North American territory.

            6. They might not want to undercut their own internal labor force, and their factory utilization has spare room.
              Why compete with yourself?

            8. America threatens Mexico, China offers help. Which country will end up with the more influence? Sorry, obvious question.

              NAOM

    1. Hazardous sapiens pushing limits, Attaching spoiler and software unlocking to a 261 km/h limit.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8gDLnAtIe0
      The Tesla M3 driving experience is almost as good as (insert here). Experience is unlike ICE cars. You learn quickly to just blend into traffic, find gaps and effortlessly blink up to traffic velocity even before others have time to break. It’s Ludicrous. Not sure many could go back to combustion propulsion without causing accidents. The complexity and maintenance required for compliance seems like an overwhelming liability for Combustion propulsion. Newer Gas Direct Injections “GDI” autos run well for ~2 years and upon warranty expiration starts stumbling and belching. Surgery by skilled auto technicians armed with chemicals is the only fix. Bend over!
      Deep Dive- Direct Injection, Problems and Solutions | The Fine Print: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrLNDgrIw3U
      Nein Danke I drive my beater till affordable curb jumping EV’s are produced in volume.

      1. Good video Longtimber, thanks. Clearest explanation I have seen so far about the GDI system and problems. The very high pressure system needed to inject fuel directly into cylinder heads is itself problematic.
        The owner is left with a lot of headaches not that far down the road. Like buying a ticking time bomb for the wallet.

        From Wikipedia:
        In 2013, research by TÜV NORD found that although gasoline direct injection engines dramatically reduce carbon dioxide emissions, they release about 1,000 times more particles classified by the World Health Organization as harmful than traditional petrol engines and 10 times more than new diesel engines. The release happens because direct injection results in uneven burning of fuel due to uneven mixing of fuel and air (stratification) and because direct-injection engines operate with a higher pressure in their cylinders than older indirect-injection engines.
        Then there are the numerous transmission problems….

  4. “For all:

    Can we please see an end–an END–to the snotty tone in far too many of the comments here? There is no call for any comment of the ‘I see that you have no understanding of (fill in the blank)’ type, or of anything like it.

    Content and accuracy of post are important. Clarity of presentation is important. Civility and courtesy are important. What anyone posting here thinks of anyone else posting here is not important for the public discussion.” ~ Synapsid

    I Talk To The Wind

  5. What’s On The Menu? (Back Of Envelope)
    Getting 10 Calories Industrial Agriculture Fossil Fuel Input For 1 Calorie of Food Output Down To Under 1 In For 1 Or More Out With Local, Non-Fossil-Fueled Agriculture

    ~2500 calories/day
    ‘moderately active’ ‘average age/size’ (‘~40y.o./~160lbs’) adult male (based on unknown definition for ‘moderately active’):

    1 egg: ~75 calories

    1 apple: ~100 calories

    1/2 cup blueberries: ~40 calories
    1/2 cup strawberries: ~25 calories

    1/2 cup rosehips: ~100 calories

    10 4″ long green beans: ~20 calories
    1 cup chopped, raw dandelion greens: ~25 calories
    1 cup chopped, raw wild gathered greens (‘weeds’): ~25 calories

    12 walnuts: ~270 calories

    9 generic (random) nuts: ~140 calories

    12 hazelnuts: ~100 calories

    10 tablespoons of honey= ~600 calories

    2 medium potatoes: ~300 calories
    1 sweet potato (5″ long): ~ 110 calories

    1 ear of corn: ~150 calories

    2 medium peaches: ~120 calories

    1/2 cup cherries: ~25 calories

    1 small turnip: ~20 calories

    3/4 cup butternut squash in cubes: ~50 calories

    assorted gathered greens, roots, (gubs, small animals), saps/nectars and berries: ~?? calories

    1 chicken thigh with skin (~1/2 a Peruvian guinea pig or ~1/3 rabbit?): ~230 calories

    = roughly 2500 calories

    Estimated yield

    “Apple Trees

    Miniature: 1/4–1 bushel
    Dwarf: 1–4 bushels
    Semi-Dwarf: 5–10 bushels
    Standard: 10–20 bushels”

    How Much Do You Get In a Bushel?

    “A bushel of apples typically holds about 125 medium apples”

    How many fruit and nut trees per person?
    (Assuming pests and other forms of damage)

    Hardy Walnuts of Nova Scotia

    “A lot of people are surprised to hear that we can grow many varieties of nuts here in Nova Scotia, including Chestnuts, Almonds, Hazels, Walnuts, pine nuts and some pecans as well as more exotic varieties like yellowhorn and gingko. Bill and Elizabeth Glen of PEI have been growing hazelnuts commercially since 2013, pioneering both a local market and best practices for Maritime nut growing.”

    Edible Weeds
    Peru-Style Food Guinea Pig
    Spruce (and other edible evergreen) Tips
    Beekeeping

    “World population in 1500 was less than half a billion. Trying to double that without the aid of fossil fuels would have been a very serious problem.” ~ Ron Patterson

    Understood, Ron, but we might still want to consider cushioning our ostensibly inevitable fossil-fuel-based agricultural landing, yes? 10 calories input down to under 1 in for 1 out or more?

      1. It might be good to have if calories are at a premium, at least at the outset; for baking/addition to/preservation of other food; and if only as a fringe benefit from beekeeping and its inherent benefits to nature. What do you think?

        Honey also makes honey mead.

        1. Honey is composed of mostly glucose and fructose —-
          Best consumed in very small amounts, only if you have good blood sugar levels..

          1. Fair enough, thanks.
            I deliberately overshot the calories for good measure, so the honey is not absolutely required. (But it’s quite a bit of calories [to say nothing of nutrients] needed per day to keep a human running in any case, yes?)
            What might you replace the honey (and other items) with for yourself and from your locale, BTW?
            Since this is ‘back-of-envelope’, so exploratory, the items can/will be replaced with whatever is appropriate for an individual and locale.
            Myself, ideally, I might like to swap out all the annuals for native perennials. We have a lot of different wild berry bushes here, although too many berries can have diuretic effects.

            Attached is an image (which I may have posted before) of some of hand-picked, cleaned and processed (some pureed and some of it added to apple juice) autumnberries from one autumn a few years ago.

            1. Yum!
              Looks good.
              Just pay attention– I have guests who are honey delusional currently.

      1. Those may be pretty charts, but they do not explain the underlying causes of the warming and cooling. Science is supposed to be about substance over style. Unfortunately, this isn’t well understood in some of the vanity branches of science.

        1. Certainly Dr. Haner, would you be so kind as to explain the underlying causes to us? I’d especially like to know which branches of science fall under the umbrella of the vanities?

          Perhaps some of the biosciences , ecosystems science, entomology, botany and maybe paleontology? Those are some of the sciences that you might want immerse yourself in, if you should wish to get a better grasp of what the sixth mass exctinction is all about!

          https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/extinction-countdown/rise-of-the-extinction-deniers/

          Rise of the Extinction Deniers
          Just like climate deniers, they’re out to obfuscate and debase the scientists and conservationists trying to save the world—and maybe get rid of a few pesky species in the process

          We could post some pretty charts too!

          In case anyone is interested here’s a link to theRevelator site:
          https://therevelator.org/one-million-extinctions/

          What Losing 1 Million Species Means for the Planet — and Humanity

          A new UN report finds that at least 1 million species are at risk of extinction. Will this finally be enough to motivate worldwide action?

          Keeping those 1 million species is just another vanity, right?!

          Cheers!

          1. C.S. Lewis noted the first response by the totalitarian is to pose as an authority, as in, “the science is settled.” Worshiping the creation rather than the creator is the foremost fallacy of our present times. Never have so many wise men been led so far astray as by the siren song of environmentalism.

            1. It is posts like the above that really makes my blood boil. How can any human being be so fucking ignorant as to believe that we don’t have an environmental problem?

              Yes, the science is settled, we are destroying the earth. We are driving species into extinction at the highest rate since the KT extinction 65 million years ago.

              10,000 years ago humans were about .1 percent of all the land vertebrate biomass of the planet. In 2000 we and our domesticated animals were about 97 percent of the land vertebrate biomass. Today it is closer to 97.5 percent. And we continue to wipe them out. The Earth has lost half its wildlife in the last 40 years.

            2. It is posts like the above that really makes my blood boil. How can any human being be so fucking ignorant as to believe that we don’t have an environmental problem?

              Ron, I’d be willing to wager that this is not a case of ignorance, I’m pretty sure there are quite a few posts on this site that are either bots or paid trolls! Whenever I see a handle such as ‘Danny Brave’ my troll and bot meter go into the red zone!

              That majority of people that are really that ignorant, don’t make it to this site to post! They are probably not literate enough to be able to quote C.S. Lewis either…

              Granted, my troll meter is not infallible 😉

            4. “Worshiping the creation rather than the creator is the foremost fallacy of our present times. ”

              I think you meant “Creator,” with a capital C?

              Doesn’t exist. You worship nothing.

          2. “I’d especially like to know which branches of science fall under the umbrella of the vanities?”

            Bonfireology

        2. Steven —

          I think EVERY branch of science uses images as a teaching-visualization tool — from basic geometry to quantum field theory and everything in between. Does an image of a dodecahedron make crystallography a “vanity branch of science”? Why should climate science be any different? What sciences did you study that didn’t employ any images as teaching/visualization tools? Don’t say mathematics because mathematicians use images at every level.

          In theoretical physics, Feynman diagrams are pictorial representations of the mathematical expressions describing the behavior of subatomic particles. These diagrams give a simple visualization of what would otherwise be an arcane and abstract formula. Perhaps you call them vanity diagrams?

          BTW Scientific visualization, sometimes referred to in shorthand as SciVis, is the representation of data graphically as a means of gaining understanding and insight into the data.

          1. Does an image of a dodecahedron make crystallography a “vanity branch of science”?

            Probably not! Though building an icosahedronic butterfly hatching cage is probably pushing it! 😉
            .

        3. Steven,
          I would ask you to clarify your vague remarks,
          but I will refrain,
          since you are likely to just embarrass yourself publicly.

  7. On this date:
    1972 — US: From the Dick & Bob Watergate Party tapes:
    “Haldeman: … the great thing about it is that the whole thing is so totally fucked up so badly done that nobody believes —

    Nixon: … that we could have done it.

    Haldeman: That’s right. It’s beyond comprehension …”

    Today, it would be a daily event.

    1. We drove from. Camarillo to Santa Barbara today. Unusually heavy traffic for a Saturday, People leaving LA for a beautiful weekend. At one point we encountered a Tesla with California plates. First EV encounter this month.

      1. It is interesting to me when I hear of people reporting a rare, or first, EV encounter.
        I live on a street with with about 20 houses.
        There are 5 EV’s, and atleast 4 plug in hybrids that I am aware of.

        I took a walk the other day nearby and saw two new EV’s that looked very nice- both hatchbacks. A Kia Niro, and an Audi E-tron.

        This is just the beginning.

        1. You must live in a wealthy area if your neighbor can afford a $75,000 Audi with a range of 204 miles. One rarely sees an EV in my 55+ California retirement community with 3000 residents. I guess that the elderly are not early adapters.

            1. I don’t know. If not reading I usually have two TV’s going and sometime watch MSNBC and Fox simultaneously. (One with sound – one captioned). Fast forwarding commercials. Or I might watch a Turner Movie and CNN. Or Playboy. I especially like Maddow, Melber, Hayes Bret Baer, Shepard Smith and Wallace. But much of Fox is sickening.

            2. I trust that most of the people in your community are not like the people portrayed in the video linked to below:

              Trump voter’s false claim surprises CNN reporter

              Reporter: Do you worry that President Trump’s divisiveness, his lies will hurt him in the long run?

              Trump Supporter: I don’t think so because you have to tell me what he’s lying about, first of all. I don’t think he’s lying about anything.

              Reporter: You don’t think he’s lying about anything?

              Trump Supporter: No.

              I wonder what it’s like to live in that kind of bubble?

            3. I think people like to live in bubbles because it feels safe in there, and maybe righteous.
              There are different versions. Fundamentalists, and others who rely on their religious leaders are the biggest example.
              But there are many kinds.

              I’m generally tolerant of bubble people, except when they try to expand it to others, or get involved politically. That crosses the line.

    1. I caught that too but haven’t read it yet. We seem to read many of the same sites.

      1. I suspect we do. I’m quite interested in future trends; but not the ones about a solar powered flying car on every roof top as per Nick, Fred, and the rest of the techno-cornucopian gang. I do suspect that many of the folks here were likely toilet trained on comic books about little boys who would build space ships in their back yards and then fly to the moon.

  10. Let’s start at the beginning, shall we?!

    If you ask most of those people who acknowledge climate change as a serious problem my bet is that they would say that solving the climate crisis is all about transforming the energy system away from fossil fuels and replacing fossil fuel based energy with renewable technologies like wind turbines and solar panels. They probably also believe that the main problem in making this transition is the influence of the carbon lobby among politicians and policy makers. If only the misleading power of climate deniers could be broken policy could be changed, wind, solar and marine energy could take the place of coal, oil and gas, and all would be well!

    NO! NO! A THOUSAND TIMES, FUCK NO!!!

    As for the rest of the points raised, based on this first paragraph I won’t even bother addressing them. Most of it is bullshit and the rest is not even wrong! They are ‘Fractally Wrong’, to put it mildly!

    The real problem is, that the vast majority of people still do not even acknowledge that climate change is a serious problem at all. Let alone that it isn’t the biggest problem we face, not by a long shot!

    Having said that, we need to get off all fossil fuels as of 50 years ago! If you think depending on renewables such as wind and solar won’t solve climate change then you have to be certifiably criminally insane to suggest natural gas will help transition to some other form of energy generation!

    1. “Having said that, we need to get off all fossil fuels as of 50 years ago!”

      I have been watching a pair of flycatchers struggling to feed their young in an insect depleted world. They are masters at bug catching but there are so few that I leave my door wide open now with no thought of insect intrusion. I wonder if they will be here next year. Just catching little gnats must really put a strain on their energy levels and ability to feed young.
      The swallows have all disappeared. No sign of any bats. No hummingbirds. The cat no longer finds mice. Owls left a while ago.
      Fifty years ago was a paradise compared to now and the future is not looking brighter. The many glittering eyes at night are gone now. Population collapse from the bottom up is a hard thing to watch.

      1. “The swallows have all disappeared.”

        I have 12 squirrel-proof swallow nest boxes which, until this year, have usually all been occupied, most producing two hatches each. Now four are occupied and the birds are struggling. Reason, too few bugs. When I tell people this they (mostly) just shrug their shoulders as if to say — so what?

        1. That is pretty startling. Why do you think there are less bugs in your area?
          Surely the local climate is still in the enormous range of insect tolerance.
          Local pesticide use escalating, wetlands torn up, insect food chain disrupted?

          1. I’ve no idea why our bug population seems to have collapsed. It’s several miles to any commercial agricultural activity or any other obvious cause. I’ve also noticed my bat house is no longer occupied, for the first time in a decade; guessing lack of bugs is reason. I’m hoping the situation is reversible but not optimistic.

            1. I’ve no idea why our bug population seems to have collapsed. It’s several miles to any commercial agricultural activity or any other obvious cause.

              Could be a number of things. The fact that there has been massive insect biomass loss in many ecologically protected areas all over the world with many of them far from agricultural areas and pesticide use, is grounds for serious concern.

              My personal hunch that much like the cocktail of chemicals humans are constantly releasing into the environment, which when looked at individually, seem relatively harmless, it is the synergistic interaction of the sum total plus the effects of climate change, especially the warming and increased atmospheric CO2 concentration that are probably pushing systems over the edge of tolerance.

              The following linked paper touches on some of these factors but I’m afraid it is far from being a comprehensive assessment of all possible factors influencing insect demise on a global scale.

              https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320718313636

              Review
              Worldwide decline of the entomofauna: A review of its drivers

              …The main drivers of species declines appear to be in order of importance: i) habitat loss and conversion to intensive agriculture and urbanisation; ii) pollution, mainly that by synthetic pesticides and fertilisers; iii) biological factors, including pathogens and introduced species; and iv) climate change. The latter factor is particularly important in tropical regions, but only affects a minority of species in colder climes and mountain settings of temperate zones.

            2. E FredM,

              Too much recent research leads to the opposite conclusion from that in the last sentence for my comfort. Since you ask.

            3. E. Synapsid,
              Ah, yes. Well, since I asked! 😉

              Unfortunately I must concur. I am aware of much more research than I generally tend to let on.
              When you connect all the dots…
              Scheisse!

              Despite a few of us still being able to imbide an occasional Port, I think comfort, is a luxury that none of us will be able to take for granted, all that much longer…
              Cheers!

            4. Have you found any reports on the trend in insect decline. We are seeing many reports of ‘Wow, insects are disappearing!’ but are there any studies of what the annual decline is and is it steady, increasing or decreasing. That may point to a critical year where there are, effectively, no bugs.

              NAOM

            5. IIRC, you were in an area with large forest fires recently.

              I wonder (and hope there is someone here with actual knowledge on the subject) if the change in insect types after a forest fire may result in different predator species?

            6. Excellent point. Two summers of heavy wildfire smoke here is a possible cause of insect demise. Why didn’t I think of that. 😉

            7. Loss of food source, loss of larvae, loss of eggs? Just a thought.

              NAOM

            8. In my neck of the woods we had a drought and a very bad fire season back in 2014. Our 6 acre homestead had somewhere between 1.5 and 2 acres badly burnt by some idiot that had been given the job to clear the verge at the side of the road adjoining the property. Apparently, he ran into a wasp nest in the bushes along the fence line and decided to burn/smoke them out.

              When I was a teenager growing up in that house, insects were a big nuisance around lights at night. Even fairly recently there was a flourishing population of spiders on the front porch, where a light was left on all night but, I have not been to the house recently so I can’t say if they are still there.

              When Doug mentioned the noticeable decline in insects, his complaints about air quality during his recent bad fire season did cross my mind. Thinking back to the 2014 fire season in my neck of the woods, the burning of thousands of acres of wooded lands cannot be good for insects or any wildlife for that matter. Even rats might have some difficulty escaping a fast moving wildfire. Driving through the areas that were scorched was pretty depressing.

  11. I think Fred may have posted this link himself, a few days back. Somebody here did, for sure.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=emFGiIJvce8

    If you encounter a skeptic who questions whether it’s actually getting hotter, fast enough to notice it in day to day terms, show him this link starting at 26 30 . If it warms up as much over the next twenty five years as it has the last twenty five, I’ll be living in what used to be South Carolina or even Georgia weather if I make it that long, in the mountains in Virginia.

    The first evidence that I noticed, personally, that truly convinced me how much it’s heating up was that farmers are planting earlier and harvesting later than we were forty or fifty years ago.

    That sounds good at first glance ….. but in another twenty to thirty years , if things continue on as they have for the last twenty or thirty years, apples will be a very iffy proposition here where I live. It’s already borderline too hot for cool season crops such as potatoes and cabbage but we grow both commercially early and late for now.

    But rice will probably do very well on local river bottom land by 2050!

    The last time I was down to Charlotte, it hit me like a brick to see that the garden centers at local big box stores were stocked up to the ying yang with PALM TREES. Never would have believed it, when I was a young guy! Back then you had to drive at least three hundred miles before you would see them.

    Palm trees mass marketed within a hundred miles of home!

      1. Yeah, now with that video in mind think again about what is happening at the government level!

        https://www.lawfareblog.com/white-houses-climate-committee-red-teams-reality

        The White House’s Climate Committee Red-Teams Reality

        … And then there is the appointment of Happer himself. Happer is not a climate scientist but nonetheless suggested in 2014 that carbon dioxide is a good thing for the planet, and has compared believers in climate change to Nazis, claiming that demonization of CO2 “really differs little from the Nazi persecution of the Jews, the Soviet extermination of class enemies or [the Islamic State’s] slaughter of infidels.” (The Nazi comparison is not an isolated reference; Happer allegedly referred to his climate science work as a “CO2 anti-defamation league.”) Happer has also publicly said that he believes “climate change has been tremendously exaggerated,” that he doesn’t think “people have very much to do with [causing climate change],” and that “the government should not be pushing technical information that they’re not absolutely certain about.”

        I know that many people consider Dr. Guy McPherson to be doomer and an extreme alarmist with regards climate change and biological extinction. I myself have been on the fence about that for a long time. At this point I’m coming back around to seeing things his way. Basically his message is that we should not allow authoritarians to manage our extinction which is pretty much inevitable in the not too distant future.
        He is not a fan of XR and Greta Thunberg. I disagree slightly on that much, but I understand where he is coming from. Anyways, if someone wants to disagree here’s his latest talk.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSvXwLPbNqI
        Ep. 35: No Escape – Prof. Guy McPherson on Extinction Rebellion (XR)

        1. Hmmm…

          “…and [Happer] has compared believers in climate change to Nazis, claiming that demonization of CO2 ‘really differs little from the Nazi persecution of the Jews….'”

          So, he’s saying Jews are a gas?

        2. Basically his message is that we should not allow authoritarians to manage our extinction
          Unfortunately, that is the default position with Late Stage Capitalism.
          As anyone knows who is paying attention, we are probably in the rear view mirror on that one.

    2. In your experience OFM, how often does a year come up in which drought stress diminishes the yields of soy and corn in the region (georgia, carolina, virginia)?
      This may become more frequent I suspect.

      1. Hi Hickory,

        I’ve never given this particular question any thought, since we don’t grow beans and corn commercially on our place, or much of anything, these days, since retiring.

        But my seat of the pants estimate is that for the last forty years or so, farmers in this general area have had drought problems to a significant extent at least one year out of four, with really serious drought problems one year out of eight or ten. Drought is often highly local in this part of the country, because we get lots of thunderstorms, which can drench one community while entirely bypassing the next. And sometimes a drought that lasts only a few weeks can hit you really hard…… depending on the time it hits. Other times, the crop can recover and still turn out well, if the drought comes early in the season, and there’s plenty of rain later.

        The long term trend is that we have been gradually getting less rain in this area for going on a century now, but boy has that ever changed for the last two years!

      2. It’s not always drought. This year, there’s too much rain in the Mid-West.

        ‘Everybody’s so down in the dumps’: Illinois farmers give up on planting after floods — and throw a party
        PUBLISHED SUN, JUN 16 2019
        KEY POINTS
        Heavy rains caused unprecedented delays in planting this year and contributed to record floods across the central United States.
        The storms have left millions of acres unseeded in the $51 billion U.S. corn market and put crops that were planted late at a greater risk for damage from severe weather during the growing season.
        James McCune, a farmer from Mineral, Illinois, was unable to plant 85% of his intended corn acres and wanted to commiserate with his fellow farmers by hosting the “Prevent Plant Party” at The Happy Spot.

        https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/16/midwest-floods-llinois-farmers-give-up-on-planting-and-throw-party.html

        There’s a twitter thread called No Plant 19 which is worth checking out.
        https://twitter.com/hashtag/noplant19?src=hash

    4. You’ll be switching from growing apples to growing pineapples soon.

      NAOM

  12. Militiamen Rally Around Oregon GOP Senators Fleeing Climate Bill
    By Matt Shuham

    https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/militiamen-oregon-senate-republicans-cap-and-trade-iii-three-percenters

    The Republicans in Oregon’s state senate have fled the state rather than provide a quorum for a cap-and-trade carbon emissions bill to become law, in the process rallying armed right-wing militias to their cause.

    “Send bachelors and come heavily armed” State Sen. Brian Boquist (R) said Wednesday before the walk-out began. “I’m not going to be a political prisoner in the state of Oregon.”

    If Boquist meant it as a rallying cry for Oregon’s anti-government extremists, it worked. The Oregon III%, a collection of local chapters that’s part of a nationwide movement of anti-government militias, issued a blaring call to action on Facebook and said leadership had voted “to provide security, transportation and refuge for those Senators in need.”

    Various militia members refused to speak to TPM, citing an organization-wide blackout. But someone who identified themselves as an Oregon III% public information officer — he refused to give TPM his name, “out of threat of retaliation from Oregon State Police or any other law enforcement entity” — claimed that more than 200 militiamen from 17 counties had mobilized within the state and around the Oregon-Idaho border.

    “These people are all armed and prepared to put themselves in front of senators to prevent arrests from Oregon State Police specifically,” he said, also claiming that various militias in Idaho and Nevada had been activated, potentially adding a few dozen more people to the mix.

    1. Credible Threat: Militia Groups Become the Armed Wing for Climate Deniers

      What they can’t win by suppressing voting and gerrymandering, the fossil fuel industry will take by force. It’s a sign that they know they’re losing, but also more evidence for who they really are.

      Not a coincidence that while Putin cultivates neo-Nazi groups around the world, Donald Trump, the Koch Brothers, and the science denying Republican Party cultivate equally obnoxious allies.

      Oregon is an ongoing case study.

      Republican legislators have threatened to kill law officers if they are sent to escort them to the Capitol to do their jobs.

      https://climatecrocks.com/2019/06/22/credible-threat-militia-groups-become-the-armed-wing-for-climate-deniers/

      1. Republican legislators have threatened to kill law officers if they are sent to escort them to the Capitol to do their jobs.

        My, my, how times have changed! I vaguely recall a time when threatening the life of a law enforcement officer would have been consider a criminal offense and any individual proposing such, would have been arrested and charged.

        Interesting times we live in!

        1. Depends on ones political view.
          Of course any of these wingnuts would be arrested if they were black or on the left, and maybe shot, but wingnuts on the right these days are protected.
          I’m a dumb wingnut, and proud of it!

        2. I worry killing those you disagree with over the climate change debate is becoming slowly normalized by the militia groups and right wing media. They like to encourage it without saying so, directly. Although, sometimes it is direct, look at this truck that drives around the Phoenix area.

          1. Why do I get the feeling that someone posting this and calling themselves Digital Jake, is a drive by troll whose sole purpose is to stir up emotions?!
            Though I have to admit it is amusing to see a sticker saying someone supports law enforcement next to a request to kill someone…

            I think I’m going to get on NAOM’s band wagon and request better trolls!

            1. You know Fred, I think these reports are real. There are people who think and act like this.
              There was a Nazi driving around a truck like this Oregon recently. He eventually got the crap beat out of him when he came the wrong town in December-

              ‘A Springfield man who proclaims himself to be a neo-Nazi was hospitalized Monday as result of a melee with antifascist activists in Corvallis.

              Jimmy Marr, 65, who regularly drives a pickup truck decorated with hate symbols and messages around the state, clashed with five antifascist activists just before 4 p.m. on Northwest Monroe Avenue, one block from the Benton County Courthouse and jail.’

              I think I’d prefer to have a limit on free speech that does not allow hate speech. The limits would have to be well defined, and enforced hard. But it is just too damaging. Of course, trump would have to change his campaign speeches or risk being jailed.

            2. I guess history is repeating itself—
              Nazi’s getting their ass kicked.

            3. You know Fred, I think these reports are real. There are people who think and act like this.

              I’m sure that it is! I don’t doubt that for a minute!

              My point is that there are some very strange patterns of posting by people who suddenly show up and then seem to disappear! For all I know, Jake might even be a legit concerned citizen. Maybe I’m just being paranoid…

              Cheers!

            4. “very strange patterns of posting by people who suddenly show up and then seem to disappear!”

              Is that an example what troll means?

            5. In Internet slang, a troll is a person who starts quarrels or upsets people on the Internet to distract and sow discord by posting inflammatory and digressive,[1] extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community (such as a newsgroup, forum, chat room, or blog) with the intent of provoking readers into displaying emotional responses[2] and normalizing tangential discussion,[3] whether for the troll’s amusement or a specific gain.
              Source Wikipedia

            6. Thanks Fred.
              Its an interesting free speech issue for a public site.
              I think of all trumps public statements over the years, everything I have heard from him would fall under the category of troll.
              The grand troll.

              I now understand the comments that have been previously made calling out ‘trolls’.

              It is important to not use the term for someone we simply disagree with. That would turn the Troll Caller into the Troll, yes?

            7. It is important to not use the term for someone we simply disagree with. That would turn the Troll Caller into the Troll, yes?

              Agree 100%!

              I don’t want to dwell on this topic and only commented to try to raise awareness! As previously noted, I didn’t disagree with the content of Jake’s post, quite the contrary, I might even feel personally threatened if I came across a truck like that. Same if I came face to face with Neo-Nazis or other ultra right wing groups. That doesn’t mean there aren’t individuals trolling this site to advance their own agendas by pretending to be sympathetic!

            8. “I think of all trumps public statements over the years, everything I have heard from him would fall under the category of troll.”
              See one of Fred’s images in the previous thread.

              NAOM

          2. The owner of the truck should perhaps practice better OpSec if they hope to get very far with a plan like that.
            FWIW I suspect the written words on that truck are a photoshop type job meant to create content used to cultivate toxic political discourse. I’ve seen many images just like it used on social media. There are however many people with those sympathies.

  13. I just copied this from Quora, about Trump.

    There’s a lot more, but this one little bit caught my attention because it expresses so much so well in so few words.

    Soviet dissident journalist Masha Gessen has written: “It’s not just that both Putin and Trump lie, it is that they lie in the same way and for the same purpose: blatantly, to assert power over truth itself.”[2]
    Every day he designs a false threat, steps in to the nonexistent battlefield, and declares himself victorious to a group of now emotionally dependent human beings, whose internal story and well-being depends on him winning.[3]
    [Trump has] a talent for harnessing resentment wherever it usefully appears and redeploying it for personal and partisan benefit. Convincing people to see him as the enemy of their enemies is Trump’s true genius.[4]

    This last fifteen words goes farther to explain Trump’s political success than any others I have heard or read.

    “Convincing people to see him as the enemy of their enemies is Trump’s true genius.[4]”

    1. I would alter that a little to read, “Convincing people to see him as the enemy of their constructed, illusory enemies is Trump’s true genius.”

    2. ‘This last fifteen words goes farther to explain Trump’s political success than any others I have heard or read.’
      Very good point. I think what surprises and infuriates so many of us, is how easily the trump supporters swallow his message. It seems so naive and simple-minded to do so, but they generally seem proud that they can swallow without chewing.

      I have seen a description of America as separating off into tribes (Amy Chu).
      In this scenario you have more affinity with your tribe than any other aspect of America.
      Tribes such as sport fans, evangelists, environmentalists, golfers, artists, soccer moms, white supremacists, pride, etc. [my examples]

      Trump has been a master at cultivating his tribe.
      It seems to have two distinct segments. One the ‘selfish billionaires club’- they can be seen at places like the trump hotels, mar-a-lago, and the boardrooms of many industries.
      The other much larger tribal segment…I’ll call it the ‘Porta-Potty’ tribe.
      Trump has the Porta -Potty tribe nailed down.

      https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/apr/23/amy-chua-political-tribalism-book-overcome

      1. Trump’s message works because it isn’t new – it’s based on a foundation of lies from Fox, Sinclair, Murdoch, etc.

        He’s a symptom. He’s a spokesman, and he’s effective in part because he has very few real beliefs of his own: he just says what his audience is conditioned to expect.

  14. Sad, but a dose of reality:

    OIL PIPELINE HYPOCRISY IS CANADA’S HYPOCRISY

    The Liberal government approved this major pipeline project the day after declaring a climate emergency — like the kind of climate policy promised in 2015. We picked a government to represent us, and it does. This hypocrisy is Canada’s hypocrisy. We want to have our environmentally friendly cake and eat it with oil-sand ice cream. We care about climate change but not enough to pay $2 a week to fight it, according to a recent poll.

    https://www.thestar.com/opinion/letters_to_the_editors/2019/06/22/liberals-oil-pipeline-hypocrisy-is-canadas-hypocrisy.html

  15. Food Security: Urban/Suburban Fruit/Nut/Sap/Edible Tree & Bush Planting

    What’s an average annual city budget for planting trees? Roughly how many trees is that?
    What if cities started, if they haven’t, planting fruit and nut (etc.) trees/bushes instead or as well?

    Makes sense? How about contacting your local city government about it?

    HRM to plant 1,300 trees this summer
    More than 7,000 street trees have been planted since Halifax Regional Council approved the Urban Forest Master Plan in 2012

    “The municipality’s urban forest consists of all trees within the urban core, including street trees, park trees, and trees on private and public lands. The goal of the plan is to ensure a sustainable future for our urban forest and to create awareness about the many benefits that we all gain from the trees in our neighbourhoods.

    Nineteen hardy tree species have been selected. In years to come, these trees will beautify the neighbourhoods and grow to form a protective canopy cover.”

    Tree of All Trades
    5:35 long video talking about the benefits of trees, specifically from an urban Halifax, Nova Scotia Canada perspective

    1. Today I salute Caelan for posting some links about things and actions that are real world possibilities possible, well worth consideration and imitation.

      1. Thanks, Glen. Hope your day is going well. I’m about to head out into the sun. Catch you later.

    2. I would worry about toxic levels of pollution concentrated in the produce.

      NAOM

      1. 3-Mile Caesar Salad?

        I am well aware of this kind of thing, being one who studies, collects and eats edible wilds. (This summer, it’s trees.)
        I also have a concern for what is in (toxins?) and missing from (nutrients?) the industrial agriculture-produced food (and what its modus operandi is doing to planet and people) that I still nevertheless consume, and how it compares to home-grown, approached conscientiously.
        Halifax is a smaller, relatively clean city with plenty of parks and green spaces that could support many varieties of food plants and that seem reasonably away from traffic and other forms of pollution.
        Shanghai? New York City? Maybe not as much. Maybe there’s a limited future for cities in general, and I do recall an article on Resilience.org called something like, ‘The Future Is Rural’. I also seem to recall James H. Kunstler suggesting something about how many cities may, in the future, become mere material resources to ‘mine’.
        In any case, Alice Friedemann once wrote a book called, ‘When The Trucks Stop Running’. So if or when they do, then what? Where will those who live in cities or elsewhere get and/or grow their food?
        And if we have to get off of industrial agro anyway, what with its multitude of problems, we will need working alternatives and perhaps sooner than we think.

        1. I suggest you look at some of the city air pollution maps that show the highest concentrations along road routes. If the trees are there they will pick up a lot of it even in a place such as Halifax. Do we really want iron nano particles to be entering our bloodstream, from the nuts we eat, before polluting the brain?

          NAOM

          1. But I already covered that point of concern in my previous comment.

            You write, ‘if the trees are there’: Well then they don’t have to be there or the edibles don’t have to be eaten from those that might be there regardless.

            Again, there are plenty of parks and green spaces away from traffic in and around town, at least here. I can’t speak for other localities.

            Again II, what do you think is in the food we already consume via industrial agro, and what kind of traffic/fossil fuels do you think are burned and pollution released getting it to our plates? Anything in there that might be ‘polluting our brains’, etc.? And how might that compare with growing local? More pollution? Less?

            Again III, it looks like we will have to arrive at alternatives anyway. I make no claims that we are not between rocks and hard places, but reiterate that, in our best interests, we may want to look and plan ahead in the interest of smoothing out our predicaments and potential predicaments.

          2. Knowing Your Shit: It’s An Education Process

            Addendum:
            Pollution and maybe even wind and water/aquifer maps, as well as other kinds (historical land use, flooding, topographical) that might help, where/if available, seem to make good sense, as does soil & water sampling/testing and so forth.

            Apparently, if recalled, here in Nova Scotia for example, some dug wells may not be feasible, given arsenic.

            Lastly, (and just in case you still might not believe I have food contamination concerns) I have also previously posted a YT video, possibly here on POB, that talks about how cities recycle their sewage (possibly New York City in particular). If recalled, the title of it is something like ‘You Don’t Know Shit‘. (…Ok, I just found and linked it for your convenience. ^u^) Some of the recycled sewage ostensibly goes back into the farming system, with strawberries as examples, being featured in the film. They seem to grow very well, if with concerns for what they may contain as a result of the recycling. I think mercury was mentioned. That’s an illustration for in part why industrial agro may not be all that’s cracked up to be, even by local standards, possibly even by local standards of a raised bed strawberry patch by a roadway.

            (Apparently, too, certain plants absorb certain things, some plants and what they absorb being less concerning than others. Water lilies? Cattails? Graywater?)

            At least if something is local, the farmers– of which more of us will likely have to become– may be more responsible, at the very least in the sense that they may be more susceptible to getting a ‘gang’ show up at their door if they are not. This would seem far less the case if something bad is grown and by a corporate outfit with surrounding protective fences and rent-a-thugs (security guards) and sold 3000 miles away.

  16. https://cleantechnica.com/2019/06/22/toyota-corolla-vs-tesla-model-3-5-year-cost-comparison/

    Note that using the assumptions in these scenarios, the Three is still quite competitive and maybe even CHEAPER to own and run that the Toyota, WITHOUT the 3750 tax credit, in some instances.

    And while I think the residual value of the Toyota is reasonably estimated, my personal opinion is that the residual value of the THREE is likely to be substantially higher than estimated, because gasoline is probably going to be going up more than estimated in these scenarios, considering the likelihood of oil shortages within five years due to war, acts of god, and and peak oil.

    If we wind up standing in line to buy gasoline a few weeks, the value of a used THREE or other well thought of electric car will increase sharply….. maybe as much as five or six thousand dollars over a period of a few weeks.

      1. Robert,

        The Corolla is 20,880, stripped including doc fee. They used 19880 for the Corolla price.

        They forgot to include opportunity cost for extra cash spent for car payments for Tesla.

        Other than that pretty good job. When I add in the opportunity cost assuming 7% return, then Corolla L is less expensive than the Model 3 by $7300 over 5 years. Also we don’t really know what the resale value of the Model 3 will be.

  18. Really now?!

    https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/06/20/gentlemens-agreement-leave-1-5c-science-report-formal-un-talks/

    ‘Gentlemen’s agreement’ could leave 1.5C science report out of formal UN talks
    Published on 20/06/2019, 2:16pm
    Unless objections from Saudi Arabia can be overcome by next week, a major scientific study may be sidelined in discussions on the Paris Agreement

    After pressure from Saudi Arabia, a major report on 1.5C faces being dropped from formal negotiations in the science stream of UN climate talks.

    Discussions came to an impasse in December last year when After pressure from Saudi Arabia, a major report on 1.5C faces being dropped from formal negotiations in the science stream of UN climate talks.

    Discussions came to an impasse in December last year when Saudi Arabia, the US, Kuwait and Russia – four big oil producers – refused to endorse the findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

    That continued this week as climate talks resumed in Bonn, Germany, with countries deadlocked over how to use the report to inform their plans to fulfil the Paris Agreement. Saudi Arabia raised concerns the report could become a permanent item on the UN climate agenda.– four big oil producers – refused to endorse the findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

    That continued this week as climate talks resumed in Bonn, Germany, with countries deadlocked over how to use the report to inform their plans to fulfil the Paris Agreement. Saudi Arabia raised concerns the report could become a permanent item on the UN climate agenda.

    Saudi Arabia, the US, Kuwait and Russia….
    –

    1. Irrelevant report, 1.5C is in the rear view mirror. They need a report for 3C minimum.

      NAOM

        1. Yeah, it gets more depressing all the time. I am getting more and more convinced that we have passed, well passed, the tipping point and the downslide is starting to accelerate.

          NAOM

    1. Is that from a disgruntled Tesla owner, or a disgruntled Tesla shorter?

      Tesla recently released specs for their V3 Superchargers that are supposed to cut charge times significantly over their V2 which were better than their V1. The Model 3 and the refreshed (2nd half 2019) Model S and X will be able to take full advantage of their V3 Superchargers. The other thing is that most Tesla owners should be able to charge at home, leaving the need for using Superchargers to trips outside the 200 plus mile range. Are there that many people taking those trips now or are many people trying to make the most of free charging (in the cases where they are entitled to it)?

      You should be aware that there is a significant body of people who want Tesla to fail, some of them are bordering on desperate, based on the stunts they pull!

    2. There are times you can’t get a hotel room, without reserving it months in advance, or a plane ticket, etc, especially around holidays or when the weather turns bad suddenly.

      Plenty of people have skin in the game and want to delay or prevent electric cars from displacing ICE cars. They do all they can to promote FUD.

      A hell of a lot of stores, hospitals, office parks, manufacturing plants, and apartment complexes will soon be installing charging stations in order to attract more customers and better employees, and as status symbols.

      Status conscious young people want to live in apartment complexes with charging stations even if they don’t use them….. just as they want gyms and tennis courts, even if they don’t exercise.

      People who can afford fifty thousand dollar cars can also afford to spend a hundred bucks eating out once in a while, lol…… and they will preferentially patronize restaurants that have charging stations.

      That MARGINAL or EXTRA hundred bucks worth of restaurant sales will likely add fifty bucks or more to the bottom line on any given day. It will probably add at least twenty bucks to the bottom line at a supermarket. Stores and restaurants will find it necessary to have charging stations in order to compete.

      And with solar panels and turn key home solar systems getting cheaper every year, millions of people are going to be able to do most or all of their charging at home.

      The last time I checked, a German homeowner can get a pv system installed turnkey for HALF what a similar system typically costs here in the USA. Our trades people will eventually match or even beat the Germans at this game.

      The combination of personal ownership of both an electric car and a home pv system will sweep the country starting sometime within the next decade, the way cell phones came from nowhere to dominate the personal phone biz .

      2. People who can afford fifty thousand dollar cars can also afford to spend a hundred bucks eating out once in a while, lol…… and they will preferentially patronize restaurants that have charging stations.

        Maybe. Maybe not.

        Arguments that public charging stations need to be ubiquitous reinforces public mis-perceptions about range anxiety and the limitations of EV’s.

        I own a bottom of the barrel Fiat 500e (it’s been great so far) with only 84 miles of range, yet in the nine months that I’ve owned it, I’ve used a public charger only once, and for only 20 minutes, and to my surprise, I’ve not yet needed to install a 240V charger at home; a standard 20A 120V outlet has proved sufficient.

        I think combustion folks overestimate what their daily range requirement in an EV would be, and typically don’t have a sense of what it means to leave home with a ‘full tank’ every single day. It is quickly becoming the entry level standard for EV’s to have 200 mile minimum range, and then the need to charge away from home becomes a road trip only requirement, handled best by DC rapid chargers located in proximity to interstates and highways, and destination chargers at hotels and campgrounds.

        Counter-intuitively, a longer range car would decrease the need for day to day fast charging, as after an anomalous longer range day, you could incrementally bank the battery charge back up to full capacity over successive nights of slow charging.

        Ahh, but what about all the poor saps who don’t own a home?

        In my opinion the big push should be to incentivize installation of EV chargers at workplaces. The majority of car commuters work during the day, which happens to be when PV works best the majority of the time. Installing PV on buildings and EV chargers at car parks seems like a good idea to me.

        1. Hi Bob,

          You know what you’re talking about, and I’ve made a point similar to yours lots of times, about prosperous people owning two or even three or more cars per person or household, with one or two of them, in the near to mid term future, being an electric car used on a daily basis, and a conventional car kept for the occasional longer trip or day when all the household cars are needed at the same time.

          Suppose you already own a nice car, in great condition, but it’s getting a little age on it. You can’t get much for it cash or trade, but you could keep it for a LONG time, as your backup car, for the days when you need the second or third car.

          I have a frugal by necessity friend who owns two older Chevy Impala’s, which are really great cars, in relation to what they sell for. He and his wife put tons of miles on them, with very seldom a problem, as he’s meticulous about proper maintenance.

          But they rent a new van for their annual road trip vacation with the kids, taking them around the country to see various national parks and historical sites and so forth.

          Bottom line, when it comes to public charging spots, imo, once businesses start seeing a lot of electric cars on the road, they will start installing a lot of charging stations, and the price of them will come down dramatically, especially when incorporated into new construction.

          Businesses will install them as a keeping up with the Jones’s thing, and to get the habitual repeat business of customers who live nearby in older apartments, or in rental houses without chargers, or houses without parking, thus making it impractical to add a charger.

          Let’s suppose it costs five grand to put in relatively low powered charger that can add say forty miles of range in twenty to thirty minutes. Such equipment seldom needs repairs, and can be expected to last for many years.If it’s used only ten times a week, and nets two bucks per use, that’s a thousand bucks per year, making it a no brainer investment for the business…… never mind any ADDITIONAL sales of food or merchandise due to having it.

          I’m thinking a typical beer and pizza outing lasts at least an hour, and that anybody without a home charger who lives near a good pizza place will gladly pay to charge up while eating and drinking….. and willing to RESERVE a charging slot by paying a couple of bucks for that privilege, so he KNOWS he can top off his car.

          I can’t think of a better way for an apartment dweller to rationalize a large deluxe and a pitcher than to pay for it with the thirty bucks he saves on gasoline. Or TWO pitchers, if his car is autonomous, or even THREE… but by then his tab will run a good bit more than he saves on gasoline…

          But he can rationalize the second and third pitcher by thinking about how much he saves by not getting a DUI!

          1. I just don’t think it will happen.

            There are some businesses in my neck of the woods that have EV chargers in front of their shops, and I’ve never seen a car plugged into them.

            They serve a niche that is quickly ceasing to exist.

            1. Back atcha Bob,
              It’s going to happen, but it’s going to take a while!

              There’s not yet a single pure electric car in my immediate neighborhood, but I know half a dozen people, locally, who drive a Prius.

              There wasn’t a Prius to be seen parked in a local driveway in the immediate neighborhood five or six years ago……. because local people did not yet believe a Prius would prove to be a long lasting and trouble free car. They didn’t buy a PRIUS until they KNEW by their own observations that they could COUNT on a PRIUS, the same way they could COUNT ON a Camry or Corolla.

              The typical car owner is not about to commit himself to buying an electric car until he has seen one of his neighbors or co workers drive one for at least a couple of years.

            2. My friend just posted 300,112 miles on their Prius.
              Still no significant issues with that vehicles.
              They do a long, very hilly commute with it.
              [about halfway between JJHman and wharf rat}

            3. I could be wrong, but I think Bob was saying that EVs are getting bigger batteries and more efficiency, and therefore longer range. That means that the market for local charging spots might be less important: people would charge at home, or on long range trips.

              On the reliability of hybrids: the taxi industry delayed a conversion to hybrds while they evaluated the overall cost of operations (the old Crown Vics were cheap to maintain, but gas hogs) – they converted en masse about 6-7 years ago.

            4. Yes, that’s right.

              And if Fred’s car as a service transition happens quickly, the priority will be on ultra-fast chargers.

        2. Ahh, but what about all the poor saps who don’t own a home?

          Well, unless they are already living under a bridge, they are probably paying for shelter as a service and will probably be better off using transportation as a service as well, either in the form of buses, trains, subways or ridesharing apps to summon transport to their doorstep via their smartphones…

          In my opinion the big push should be to incentivize installation of EV chargers at workplaces. The majority of car commuters work during the day, which happens to be when PV works best the majority of the time. Installing PV on buildings and EV chargers at car parks seems like a good idea to me.

          That sounds like a description of the BAU model that I really don’t see being adhered to for very much longer. I see a future with fewer and fewer people commuting to jobs assuming they even have jobs as we currently think of them. Private automobile ownership should become much less common than it is today, thereby eliminating the need for large car parks.

          Anyways we have much bigger issues to worry about. Yesterday I went to my local park with a friend and we walked out onto a big grassy area, I got down on my hands and knees and looked for insects. I didn’t find any, not a single one! In the past that same area would have been well populated with them. Even more ominous was the lack of any birds out on the grass. Note: this is summer in Florida!

          1. All excellent points Fred. Sad and scary to hear that Florida is losing much of it’s insect life also and all that implies for the natural order of life.
            For anyone with decent observational abilities and willing to ask the non-obvious questions, things are getting really creepy. The insanity of nuclear weapons and nuclear power is obvious, but I never thought I would live in a “horror film” world where the participants can’t seem to resist going further into the haunted house instead of running the other way. Maybe those old films captured the true psychology of many humans.

            1. Sad and scary to hear that Florida is losing much of it’s insect life also and all that implies for the natural order of life.

              It isn’t easy to find published research on this topic specifically related to Florida. Though there is research being done, case in point.

              https://www.yoursun.com/charlotte/news/bugging-out-why-some-insects-are-disappearing/article_3ad241a2-8215-11e9-afb7-f7e8d4f7074d.html

              Bugging out: why some insects are disappearing

              Stanbrook and assistant researcher Daniel Bonsignor have been invited to the huge Longino Ranch that straddles DeSoto and Sarasota counties, there to study dung beetles. The two are with the University of Central Florida’s biology department. Stanbrook is a post-doctoral fellow leading USDA-funded research. Dung beetles renourish the soil with livestock droppings, rid pastures of worms and flies that flourish in cow poop, and perform other miracles reducing ranching costs. They also raise their youngsters in cozy balls of buried cow droppings, presenting them a heated lunch at birth.

              For unexplained reasons, however, dung beetles are vanishing. Which is bad for Florida ranchers.

              No Shit! (pun intended)

            2. Ah! Finally hit pay dirt this morning in a patch of weeds in an empty lot about 300 yds. from that insect free lawn in the park I mentioned. Basically what I think is the park’s lawn is fertilized, mowed and probably sprayed with pesticides. This little patch of weeds gets none of that. I counted a couple grasshoppers, three bees, half a dozen small butterflies and two of these dragonflies, only one of which was willing to pose for the photograph below! Unfortunately that empty lot is already slated for construction of a high rise condo…
              .

            3. “Unfortunately, that empty lot is already slated for construction of a high rise condo…”

              Ay, and therein lies the rub.

            4. Well, you know we gotta keep that economy growing. Maybe we could plant weeds on the heliport…/sarc

            6. German wind turbines kill trillions of insects.

              ROFL! Get the fuck out of here!

              If that were a major source of insect die off how many insects do you suppose were killed by cars on the Autobahn every single day?

              In 2019, the number of motorized vehicles in Germany increased by nearly a million to 64.8 million vehicles,
              .

            8. Up to now, this principle has not been applied to possible interferences of wind parks and flying insects.”

              I read the full report you linked to and agree that the precautionary principle should always be applied.

              However I still have doubts about the sincerity of your concerns given that you are singling out wind farms without even mentioning the myriad other factors which as stated in the paragraph extracted from the conclusions sections below, that have not even been quantified yet.

              BTW, citing a number such as ‘Trillions’ of insects in and of itself is quite meaningless! it raises a number of red flags. If you have to ask why, then you are not qualified to even discuss this topic honestly. Hint just look at the picture of the insects splattered on the car in the picture above.
              I’m also quite curious as to who is behind the report! I plan to research that.

              Model calculation of the amount of insect biomass that traverses wind rotors during operation provides a first estimate of the order of magnitude of 24,000 tons of insects crossing the Germanm wind park throughout the summer season. Based on conservative model assumptions, five percent of the insects flying through a rotor could be actually damaged. The related loss of 1,200 tons per year since more than fifteen years could be relevant for population stability.,/I>

              NOTE: 5% is not a very signifcant number! Given that we are seeing a 75% reduction of insect biomass across the board all over the world even in places that don’t have any wind turbines nearby. Such as protected tropical rain forest in Puerto Rico.
              So why aren’t you voicing you concerns in equal measure about applying the precautionary principle to all the other factors?!

              In any case I will download and read the original report in German linked here.
              https://www.dlr.de/tt/desktopdefault.aspx/tabid-2885/4422_read-53289/

              From the Conclusions section:

              The study aims at raising awareness about wind power generation being one of the possible causes of insect biomass lost in several nature reserve areas in Germany. The order of magnitude of insect losses caused by wind power generation has been quantified theoretically for the first time. Losses caused by insecticides, herbicides, monocultures, human transport, light contamination, climate change and urbanization have not been quantified yet. For this reason, it is impossible to say to what extent the different impacts are responsible for insect decline, or which impact is the most harmful one. In any case, all impacts on insect population probably add to each other.
              The amount of jeopardized insect biomass of several thousand tons per year derived from simple mass balance under conservative assumptions, the large number of species throughout all taxa together with the high insect densities found at critical rotor heights, and visible evidence of an
              uncounted number of insects being killed by wind rotor blades since more than thirty years, call for in-depth assessment of all possible interactions involved and for empirical verification of the theoretical estimate of about a trillion per year lost in German wind farms.

              So while your concerns are duly noted, your sincerity rings quite hollow without addressing all the other issues as well!

              Sounds to me more likely that you are pushing an agenda!

            9. “So while your concerns are duly noted, your sincerity rings quite hollow without addressing all the other issues as well!” ~ Fred Magyar

              Ya right…
              By that logic, you should also make that sort of point/case with others hereon, if you don’t already, who push for so-called renewables and electric vehicles (like what their drawbacks and potential drawbacks are to the ecosystem, etc.), but we don’t see that happening or nearly as often, do we? If not, that sounds like a double standard.

              I’ve heard that President Trump apparently likes to do double standards, incidentally. If so, maybe that’s why some people who may see some uncomfortable/inconvenient similarities in themselves like to distance themselves, via various derogative quips, quotes and comix.

              You and I both lament the destruction of the ecosystem, but when I’ve done so, you’ve suggested my apparent hypocrisy, but not your own, by doing so using the internet. That also looks like a sort of ad hom and/or attacking the messenger and serves to detract to boot.

              Commenting on insect losses only by wind farms/turbines/mills is still valid, even if it doesn’t touch on other possible reasons, (which seems difficult, if not next to impossible anyway) for the losses.

              BTW and FWIW, as a related aside, I don’t have the internet at home. I use it where it is already broadcasting. Maybe that doesn’t make any difference, except perhaps with some materials/hardware, but in any case, I try to walk the talk as best I can (and given the context of the surrounding uncommunity of zombies that I have to interact with daily) and if you or anyone else reading this wants to test that, they had better be willing to test it in themselves as well or, as they say, STFU.

          2. Hi Fred,

            You’re typically looking a little farther ahead than I am, in terms of predicting cultural and economic trends.

            How long do you think it will be before a typical Yankee working man or woman will be getting around using “transportation at a service”?

            To be a little more specific, how long until the car ownership per person falls by half, in your opinion?

            1. To be a little more specific, how long until the car ownership per person falls by half, in your opinion?

              LOL! I’m afraid my predictions about the future are probably not much better than Yogi Berra’s!

              So I’m gonna punt. I dunno!

              BUT! There is a lot of writing on the wall.

              https://investorplace.com/2019/04/4-charts-car-ownership-over/

              The Era of Car Ownership Is Over. And These 4 Charts Prove It

              It may take a while to play out, but car ownership rates in the U.S. will ultimately drop in the long run
              By Luke Lango, InvestorPlace Contributor Apr 3, 2019, 2:23 pm EDT

              I do think it will happen much faster in urban vs rural environments

          3. Yes, the insect apocalypse is terrifying.

            A month ago we spent three days camping on the Fremont River. It’s been a wet spring and the river was swollen and its banks lush with vegetation.

            We weren’t bothered by any bugs. No flies buzzing us. No mosquitos biting us. No wasps molesting our picnic. No gnats.

            The weekend before last we spent a night camping in the Uinta forest, also quite verdant from a very wet spring. One friend brought a huge ziplock bag full of wide selection of bug sprays and lotions. No need. There was a lone fly buzzing about the head of the apparently least recently bathed member of our party, annoying him greatly, until he finally managed to kill it.

            On Sunday, we were mountain biking through meadows thick with wild flowers. I didn’t slow down to take a survey, but it just seemed eerily quiet. Not anything like what I recall from walking through those meadows as a kid.

            I’m no entomologist. I’ve not spent my life taking detailed observations and notes about how buggy the world is, and when in the season they arrive. Has it been too cold thus far? Has it been too wet? Will the bug populations in these places explode into normalcy any day now? I’ve no idea what normal is, but things just don’t seem right, and I’m starting to pay closer attention to what isn’t there; like the absence of bug splat on my windscreen.

            Down in the city, my flowering hedge is currently swarmed with pollinators, so, that’s nice. I’ll wait until the flowers are gone before I trim it.

            1. On the flip side, I live in rural Maryland on the Chesapeake Bay and on my 30min motorcycle commute home tonight at 9pm I was bombarded by thousands of insects. I kid you not I had to have been hit thousands of times on that 25mi ride.

              Then I got home and all the giant tulip trees on my property literally look like Christmas trees there are so many lightning bugs. There must be many millions of them out there in my area.

              But our area is mostly forested so there is a lot of prime habitat for them. Makes me glad that I chose to live in rural America!

            2. Then I got home and all the giant tulip trees on my property literally look like Christmas trees there are so many lightning bugs. There must be many millions of them out there in my area.

              Awesome! I haven’t seen a single lightning bug in years.
              I’m quite envious. When I still lived in Brazil there was a valley I used to visit where the entire forest was lit up with synchronized flashing!

              Cheers!

            3. I live in a mostly forested area and the bugs are mostly all gone. I have heard reports of many heavily forested areas, some in large parks like the Adirondacks, have little insect life.

              https://www.firefly.org/why-are-fireflies-disappearing.html

              But they are not all gone, reduction is not extinction
              https://www.phillyvoice.com/heres-why-you-might-be-seeing-more-fireflies-usual-year-delaware-valley/

              With the larvae being predatory, as the other life diminishes, so does the firefly population.

  20. For any armchair cosmologists here (which doesn’t include me!) As Fred_M is wont to say — this stuff is well beyond my pay grade.

    NEW THEORY SUGGESTS WE LIVE IN A GIGANTIC HIGHER DIMENSIONAL BLACK HOLE

    “Regardless of whether or not this provocative theory is true, scientists increasingly believe that black holes could be the key to understanding many of the most vexing mysteries in the universe, including the Big Bang, inflation, and dark energy. Physicists also believe black holes could help bridge the divide between quantum mechanics and Einstein’s theory of relativity.”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-23/new-theory-suggests-we-live-gigantic-higher-dimensional-black-hole

    And,

    FIVE-DIMENSIONAL BLACK HOLE COULD ‘BREAK’ GENERAL RELATIVITY

    “The researchers, from the University of Cambridge and Queen Mary University of London, have successfully simulated a black hole shaped like a very thin ring, which gives rise to a series of ‘bulges’ connected by strings that become thinner over time. These strings eventually become so thin that they pinch off into a series of miniature black holes, similar to how a thin stream of water from a tap breaks up into droplets.

    Ring-shaped black holes were ‘discovered’ by theoretical physicists in 2002, but this is the first time that their dynamics have been successfully simulated using supercomputers. Should this type of black hole form, it would lead to the appearance of a ‘naked singularity’, which would cause the equations behind general relativity to break down. The results are published in the journal Physical Review Letters.”

    https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2016-02/uoc-fbh021816.php

    2. This of course dovetails into the idea of universes forming inside black holes; of fractal self-similarity and at different levels of scale; and of black holes leaking information, and therefore being meaningfully connected to the infinite whole.

  21. Leaving the discussion about multi-dimensional gravitationally depressed matter systems for a moment, here is some important discussion of scientific results concerning the fast paced and potentially devastating changes in the Arctic. I do think we are in for a terrifying ride but we should do our best not to allow the Earth to model itself after the Black Hole of Calcutta incident (on a much grander scale).

    First Paul Beckwith discusses a paper modeling loss of ice and snow in the Arctic and temperature change just from albedo and LW changes. The result is about a 3C rise in temperature not including the other feedbacks up there.
    Estimating Contributions of Arctic sea-ice and Land Snow Cover to Climate Feedbacks
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sriDSZ0_1aY

    And now for the big roll of the climate dice, the latest on methane in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf:

    Understanding the Permafrost–Hydrate System and Associated Methane
    Releases in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf
    Abstract: This paper summarizes current understanding of the processes that determine the dynamics
    of the subsea permafrost–hydrate system existing in the largest, shallowest shelf in the Arctic Ocean;
    the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS). We review key environmental factors and mechanisms that
    determine formation, current dynamics, and thermal state of subsea permafrost, mechanisms of its
    destabilization, and rates of its thawing; a full section of this paper is devoted to this topic. Another
    important question regards the possible existence of permafrost-related hydrates at shallow ground
    depth and in the shallow shelf environment. We review the history of and earlier insights about
    the topic followed by an extensive review of experimental work to establish the physics of shallow
    Arctic hydrates. We also provide a principal (simplified) scheme explaining the normal and altered
    dynamics of the permafrost–hydrate system as glacial–interglacial climate epochs alternate. We also
    review specific features of methane releases determined by the current state of the subsea-permafrost
    system and possible future dynamics. This review presents methane results obtained in the ESAS
    during two periods: 1994–2000 and 2003–2017. A final section is devoted to discussing future work
    that is required to achieve an improved understanding of the subject.

    https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Igor_Semiletov/publication/333619219_Understanding_the_Permafrost-Hydrate_System_and_Associated_Methane_Releases_in_the_East_Siberian_Arctic_Shelf/links/5cfa265fa6fdccd130884c15/Understanding-the-Permafrost-Hydrate-System-and-Associated-Methane-Releases-in-the-East-Siberian-Arctic-Shelf.pdf?origin=publication_detail

    1. Meanwhile,

      MORE ENERGY NEEDED TO COPE WITH CLIMATE CHANGE

      “Compared to baseline scenarios in which energy demand is driven by population and income growth alone, the findings indicate that climate change increases the global demand for energy around 2050 by 11 to 27 percent with modest warming, and 25 to 58 percent with vigorous warming. Large areas of the tropics, as well as southern Europe, China and the U.S., are likely to experience the highest increases. The largest changes in demand are due to electricity needed for cooling, and occur in the industry and service sectors of the economy.”

      https://phys.org/news/2019-06-energy-cope-climate.html

      1. The assumption made for those energy use calculations is that there will be high population and consumption in 2050. A highly debatable assumption considering the coming intersection of major predicaments.

        1. “A highly debatable assumption considering the coming intersection of major predicaments.”

          Ain’t that the truth? Given current political insanity, climate tipping points, etc. I wouldn’t have much faith in projections to 2030 much less 2050. Assuming we’re not into a nuclear war next week of course.

  22. Bit of unsurprising trivia. No electric destroyers (EDs) on the horizon.

    U.S. MILITARY CONSUMES MORE HYDROCARBONS THAN MOST COUNTRIES — MASSIVE HIDDEN IMPACT ON CLIMATE

    “Despite the recent increase in attention, the US military’s dependence on fossil fuels is unlikely to change. The US is continuing to pursue open-ended operations around the globe, with the life-cycles of existing military aircraft and warships locking them into hydrocarbons for years to come.”

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/06/190620100005.htm

    1. And yet people cheer the Blue Angel flyovers.
      Imagine how much CO2 gets emitted during one multicountry war game ‘exercise’.

    2. It’s a surprising fact but…

      The old SR71 Blackbird reconnaissance aircraft burned 4US gallons of JP7 fuel per second at full power, 15 litres.

      To put it in perspective, this is 1/150th of the averaged consumption rate of the UK; from just one of these now defunct, but very fine, planes.

      1. By strange coincidence I had just finished watching Battle Stations – SR-71 Blackbird Stealth Plane -Full Documentary when I saw this comment. I was smitten the first time I saw images of that aircraft and to this day I believe that aircraft is the most magnificent flying machine ever made. Hundreds of missions, flirting with and often invading hostile air space, shot at more than four thousand times and the US Air Force never lost a single crew member or lost a single aircraft to hostile enemy fire. The documentary recounted an instance where during the first mission to last 11 hours and 20 minutes, it was exposed to friendly fire from Israeli forces, who were not made aware of the operation and would have been using US supplied technology to attack a USAF asset. The aircraft’s main defenses were altitude and speed which combined, put it out of the range of enemy fighters and missiles.

        As Jonathan states above, the SR 71 was an extremely thirsty aircraft and it was replaced by satellite reconnaissance which, by the time the SR 71 was retired was superior and much, much less costly.

  23. Sorry, I’m preaching to the choir (again) but most other people I know seem to think their recycling routine will save Earth. No mention of the additional two billion plus new souls on the way of course. Guess that goes into the speak-no-evil taboo tray.

    GREENHOUSE GAS LEVELS EXCEED STABILITY THRESHOLD OF THE ICE SHEETS

    Abstract: As the world keeps increasing its carbon emissions and exports, rising in 2018 to a record 33.1 billion ton per year, the atmospheric greenhouse gas level now exceeds 560 ppm CO₂-equivalent when methane and nitrous oxide are included, intersecting the stability threshold of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. The term “climate change” is no longer appropriate since, what is happening in the atmosphere-ocean system, accelerating over the last 70 years or so, is an abrupt calamity on a geological dimension, threatening nature and human civilization. Ignoring what the science says, the powers to be are presiding over the sixth mass extinction of species — including humans.

    http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/

    1. Not only does coal dust not contribute to atmospheric ppm of CO2 but coal dust is a dimming agent and therefore helps cut down on global warming. If we didn’t have it, things would already be much worse. Now there is a dilemma if ever there was one, eh?!

        3. LOL! Looks like you just moved the COAL POSTS! You said that coal dust added 100 ppm equivalent CO2. It doesn’t! But yes, coal dust can change the albedo of ice if it falls on it. Different phenomenon. Still bad!

          https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/aug/03/pollution-is-slowing-the-melting-of-arctic-sea-ice-for-now

          The authors concluded that the combined cooling effect from human aerosols was detected in all three datasets of ice. That means, it didn’t matter whose measurements you used – the effect of aerosol cooling was present.

          So how much of an effect do aerosols have? It turns out 23% of the warming caused by greenhouse gases was offset by the cooling from aerosols. Unfortunately, this isn’t good news. It means that if/when humans reduce our aerosol pollution, the warming in the Arctic and the ice loss there will be worse.

          See paper linked here:

          https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0552.1

          Attribution of Arctic Sea Ice Decline from 1953 to 2012 to Influences from Natural, Greenhouse Gas, and Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing

            1. ROFL! Gotta hand it to you. When it comes to moving the COAL POSTS you win, hands down!
              UV ionized C attracting bipolar water is the best I’ve heard yet!
              Though I suspected that might contribute more to ocean acidification… 😉

            3. That guy has more cuckoo than a shop full of Swiss clocks!

              NAOM

        4. Everyone, it’s not the coal dust that is the problem. It’s coal soot. Oxidized carbon soot. Coal dust is not a problem. There is just not enough of it to be a problem.

          Coal soot is a byproduct of burning coal to produce power. Fly ash is another polluting byproduct of burning coal. And it is a very serious problem.

          1. It’s ok, Ron, just having a little bit of fun with this topic.
            You gotta admit, ionized, nano sized, bipolar water attracting, coal dust is pretty darn amusing, eh?! I mean I can occasionally get a bit creative but I couldn’t of come up with that in a million years, I take my hat off!
            Cheers!

            1. It’s my understanding that soot, tiny particles of partly burnt coal, IS a serious problem, in that enough soot is carried by the wind up into far northern areas to significantly increase the melt rate of snow and ice when it settles out of the air onto the ice and snow.
              I’ve seen pictures of little pockets of melt water that were noticeably blackened, on a snow white background, because the water collecting in such pockets carries soot particles into them, concentrating them, just like a stream carries sand down stream until it reaches a spot with no current, and settles out.

              I’m sure all the regulars here get it, but any newbies might not be aware of this aspect of soot pollution.

              The aerosol effect contributes more to cooling that the albedo effect contributes to warming.

  26. Tesla lost $702 million last quarter after drop in Model 3 deliveries
    It also says it doesn’t expect another profit until the third quarter of this year

    https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/24/18514427/tesla-q1-2019-loss-model-3-elon-musk-earnings

    (“another profit”, to me, implies that Tesla had once made a profit, and now hopes to do so again. In reality, it has never made a quarterly profit. If it ever does, it’ll be a first)

    https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/pe-ratio

    So, to America’s cash flow negative LTO extraction we can also add the cash flow negative manufacturing of cars of the future. Perhaps the proponents for both LTO and Musk, despite their many differences, have very high levels of delusion/denial in common.

    1. Umm…Survivalist, if we never manufactured anything until it was profitable, we wouldn’t even have a matchstick factory out behind someones horseshoe shed.
      Rarely does a goundbreaking technology company get off to a quick profit from the get go.
      I have no idea if Tesla will survive, but I’d bet you all the money you have that pure electric passenger vehicles will be outselling pure ICE ones by 2030. Throw in your goats and ammo too.

      note- in 1997 Apple computer was 21 yrs old, and within 90 days of bankruptcy. Laid off something like 1/3 of its workforce…..

      1. Inverted Developer Shlock

        “…if we never manufactured anything until it was profitable, we wouldn’t even have a matchstick factory out behind someones horseshoe shed.” ~ Hickory

        I suppose that depends on how we define ‘profitable’…

        Planned Economy

        “A planned economy is a type of economic system where investment, production and the allocation of capital goods take place according to economy-wide economic and production plans… Planned economies contrast with unplanned economies, specifically market economies, where autonomous firms operating in markets make decisions about production, distribution, pricing and investment…

        A command economy or administrative command economy describes a country using Soviet-type economic planning which was characteristic of the former Soviet Union and Eastern Bloc…”

        Inverted Totalitarianism

        “The political philosopher Sheldon Wolin coined the term inverted totalitarianism in 2003 to describe what he saw as the emerging form of government of the United States. Wolin analysed the United States as increasingly turning into a managed democracy (similar to an illiberal democracy). He uses the term ‘inverted totalitarianism’ to draw attention to the totalitarian aspects of the American political system while emphasizing its differences from proper totalitarianism, such as Nazi and Stalinist regimes.”

        See also here and here…

        “‘We’ appear to have NASA-as-SpaceX and ‘Government Motors’-as-Tesla… with the Koch brothers appearing as a convenient ‘distractive device/ruse’ (as if Big Oil has nothing to do with renewables); we have Big Oil/Big ‘Government’ ostensibly in, or getting into, so-called renewables and the chained-up tax-slaves paying for it, among many other misadventures; we have AGW denialism, whose ‘denialists’ may be funded out of the same Big Government offices as the renewables teams; we have Bitcoin as a possible government invention; we have the ‘desperation’ of shale oil as apparently fundamentally unprofitable; we have the apparent urgency of AGW that is not being addressed (and why should it be, cuz renewable buildout); we have a mess of proxy wars in MENA; and so forth.”

    2. I would think a survivalist would love the idea of an electric truck.
      You wouldn’t have to be relying on any external fuel, engine oil, timing belts, camshafts, etc.
      All of your energy for mileage could be coming right off your roof.
      Sure you would still need some tires and chassis lube.
      Biggest problem with both ICE and EV is probably the computer control systems.
      Getting harder to find a vehicle without computer systems any more.
      What do you drive?

      2. I do quite like the idea Hick. I just don’t think it’ll be a reality.
        I find that many of the techno cornucopians here seem blinded, and prone to predicting a future that they would seem to prefer.
        I do not suffer that affliction.
        Do not confuse the future I foresee with what my preferences for the future are. Two totally different things.

        Back to idiot Musk…

        In Tesla’s Jan. 2016 shareholders letter, Musk tells shareholders “We plan to fund about $1.5 billion in capital expenditures without accessing any outside capital….”

        Three months later, the company announces that it plans to sell $2 billion of Tesla shares in order to invest in the just-announced Model 3 production.

        Right. Three months ago, you had no idea you’d need capital for the new model?

        Musk is a mountebank. Anybody who wants to do see Tesla do well should want to see Musk go. But it’s a bit of a cult so that’s not the case.

        Interesting that we have conflicting data.
        This link says a profit.
        https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/financials?p=TSLA
        This one does not. P/E never gets above zero.
        https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/pe-ratio
        I wonder if perhaps the first link showing a profit has neglected some operating expenses? I don’t see any reference to costs of debt financing noted.

        2. “Do not confuse the future I foresee with what my preferences for the future are. Two totally different things.”

          Indeed. I’m in the same boat. Probably most of us are.

          1. Indeed. I’m in the same boat. Probably most of us are.

            Yeah, I agree! It has occurred to me that it might be time to pass out the life preserves as our boat is about to encounter some pretty rough seas.

            What you say?! The crew left them on the dock?

            Cheers! 😉

        3. The second link looks at trailing twelve month (TTM) price earnings ratio.

          In the last 2 quarters of 2018 Tesla had positive net income, but lost money for the entire fiscal year. The data is exactly the same format at Yahoo finance as for every other company and note the annual data shows a loss just like the 10K.

          The auto business is tough, perhaps Tesla will not succeed, many other automobile manufacturers and oil companies hope that is the case.

          Cute on the technocornucopian, note that name calling implies the absence of an argument.

          No idea what the future will be, I make assumptions that seem reasonable and see where logic leads. I also look for solutions to problems, much of CO2 emissions comes from fossil fuel used in land transportation and to produce electric power. So the “technocornucopian” solutions of electric vehicle transport, solar, wind, and hydro, ramp up seem a partial solution to that problem, along with more insulation in buildings, passive solar design, more walkable neighborhoods designed with less vehicle use in mind, more local production, reusing stuff as much as possible, better quality products built to last for 50 years or more, better designed products (so batteries can be easily replaced for example) that can be repaired rather than replaced. Better education for all (freely available), better access to health care, equal rights for every person, all of these would help reduce total fertility ratio and might lead eventually to a World average TFR of 1.75 or less which would lead to falling human population and might reduce environmental destruction.

          I recognize there are limits to growth, but seek a path from A to B.

          1. Impoverish Yourselves

            Hi Dennis,
            Some good ideas in there that I can get behind, if with some reservations, such as concerning some issues behind ‘electrifying everything’; the continuation of car culture; numbers, scale and populations of ‘have nots’ wanting to ‘have’; and the idea and ostensible imperative of planned or engineered ‘impoverishment’ for Western countries, or at least especially for them.

            We certainly don’t know what the future will be like, but, ironically or paradoxically, it may turn out that those who embrace and/or defend a certain level of ‘technocornucopianism’ and/or ‘the status-quo’ may be the ones that lead us, should they get much of their way, to far worse outcomes than those who do not. See also my entry today on the non-petro side of POB where I quote part of an article that Survivalist previously linked to and that I’ve read.

            BTW, as a ‘Westerner’, I’ve been working at self-impoverishment, how about you? While ‘plans’ are all fine and nice, you actually have to participate in them meaningfully and ethically.

            That writ, join us as a fellow Westerner in working to impoverish yourself.

            *This comment was submitted to the internet from the location of a donut shop via their free wireless network, with bicycle locked outside.*

        4. Why pick on Tesla and Elon Musk? Because it is fashionable among the pro-FF people. It’s just cars following the pollution requirement to it’s inevitable place.
          The only one protecting the right to pollute are those who monetarily benefit from it.

          The whole corporate driven system is a con. You can’t sell reality, you can’t sell austerity. Unless the people are fed something close to their current commercialized delirium, it will fail.

          I look at the amount of negative opinion against any new or disruptive invention. The more negative opinion, the more afraid the current destructive system is afraid of it. The corporate owners think those inventions will be successful. That makes PV, wind turbines, and EVs at the top of the list for probable takeover.

          Reality will be very different. The false pretense of control will fade quickly and fear will set in at the highest levels, adding
          one more layer of chaos.

      1. What does ‘profitable’ even mean?

        Simple theft is ‘profitable’.

  27. Sorry Greta, I think and fear that you’re too late.

    ROADS AND DEFORESTATION EXPLODE IN THE CONGO BASIN

    Logging roads are expanding dramatically in the Congo Basin, leading to catastrophic collapses in animal populations living in the world’s second-largest rainforest. Just as worrying is that the rate of forest destruction caused by new roads in the Congo Basin has risen sharply over time, quadrupling since 2000. “The situation in the Congo Basin is scary on top of more scariness,” said Professor Bill Laurence, who has worked in Africa for 15 years. “New roads are opening a Pandora’s box of activities such as illegal deforestation, mining, poaching and land speculation.”

    https://phys.org/news/2019-06-roads-deforestation-congo-basin.html

    1. Oh, I wouldn’t worry about it!

      I’m going to bet that in the next decade or so there will be a lot fewer dragonflies in Africa and a lot more condo high rises… and then the shit will really start to hit the fan…

      Africa is projected to see the largest relative increase in the size of its population over the coming 15 years: the median projection of 1.68 billion people in 2030 is 42 per cent larger than the 2015 population of 1.19 billion.

      Population 2030 – the United Nations
      https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/…/Population2030.pdf

      https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/extinction-countdown/rise-of-the-extinction-deniers/

      Rise of the Extinction Deniers
      Just like climate deniers, they’re out to obfuscate and debase the scientists and conservationists trying to save the world—and maybe get rid of a few pesky species in the process

      Cheers!

        1. Holy Jesus Fucking Christ! These people really believe in the rapture and have no qualms about bringing it on through a nuclear holocaust.
          So much fun to be alive in these times…

          1. 1/ Trump has questioned why we don’t use nuclear weapons when we have them.
            2/ The Pentagon now believes that the first use of a nuclear weapon is justified if it gets the battle over quicker
            3/ Trump is threatening Iran with obliteration
            Ooooops!

            NAOM

      2. Fred et al., the mainstream scientists are predicting 11 to 12 billion people and then a gradual decrease in population through normal attrition. Now the only way that scenario can occur is to “westernize” most of the population and then through easier living and education the birth rate drops. Meanwhile the planet is getting eaten alive at several times the rate it can replenish itself and other limits are quickly reached.
        The whole dream of a smooth transistion to lower population is a dream that leads to a nightmare reality. Most of the educated community goes along with this scenario, just a different version of BAU.

        Whether it be climate deniers, extinction deniers or moderate climate change believers and envirocorporatists (environmentalists that are mostly interested in themselves nd their purses); it’s all the same. Arguing over which end of the egg to crack while all the chickens are being stolen is about where things are at.

        1. “The whole dream of a smooth transistion to lower population is a dream that leads to a nightmare reality.”

          And the alternative path is..?

          1. Oh, it’s not an alternative path, it’s the path of current reality. Rapid, inhomogeneous, uncontrolled human population declines around the globe.

            1. Oh. Unfortunately I have the same concern.
              I was hoping there was different way that I had not considered.

            2. Sure there are many ways to go, but I think that kind of change will only be possible after a hard crash. The system is too big and the people too well indoctrinated to sufficiently respond to diffuse existential threats.

      1. Unfortunately, it seems that there are among us, many members of society, who so often are the ones who claim to know the price of everything, yet obviously don’t know the true value of anything! The treasures available through mining are completely worthless without an understanding of the fact that mining and the entire extractive wasteful economy that many hold in such high regard, is but an insignificant subsidiary of Ecosystems Inc. Which is where all our really valuable assets are found. It is an unfortunate reality of our times, that we are squandering those assets like drunken sailors on a weekend shore leave binge! The hangover will be painful and we will find ourselves completely broke.
        .

      2. “What treasures are accessible to mining in that region?”

        The Mining industry of the Democratic Republic of the Congo is a significant factor in the world’s production of cobalt, copper, diamond, tantalum, tin, and gold. — Wiki

        3. DougL,

          Tin huh? Now that is interesting. Maybe with the gold and copper; I don’t know the ore types or settings. Do you?

          Must look.

          1. The Bisie tin deposit is one of the largest and most significant tin deposits in the world – thus making sense to explore the prospect and in future mine the tin at Bisie. Bisie is expected to produce 9 000 tonnes of low-cost tin in concentrate per annum for 12.5 years. First production is anticipated in the first quarter of 2019. The mineralisation at the Mpama North site consists a number of narrow veins, blocks or dispersions of cassiterite hosted in a chlorite schist. The Bisie Tin Project is located 60km north-west of Walikale Centre and 180km north-west of Goma, the capital of the North Kivu Province, in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.

            1. Just curious, how does mining for tin affect the ecosystems in those regions?

              Then again, perhaps it is already a moot point…

              https://www.dw.com/en/ebola-epidemic-should-be-a-wake-up-call-for-peace-in-drc/a-49366852

              Ebola epidemic ‘should be a wake-up call for peace in DRC’
              Over 2,230 people have been infected with Ebola and at least 1,510 have died over the past year. “We know how to address the crisis,” says German church-based NGO Difaem, “but the unrest is making this impossible.”

              Previous Ebola outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) usually lasted just a few weeks or months. But the current epidemic in the country’s northeastern North Kivu and Ituri provinces has raged on for over a year. This is mainly due to the presence of militia groups and frequent fighting in the affected region.

              Must be great for mining operations!

              Inhale, Exhale, Fuck it!
              Cheers!

            2. “Just curious, how does mining for tin affect the ecosystems in those regions?”

              If history is any guide — it’s a fucking disaster.

    1. Natural feed back loops? Nature trying to balance the increased CO2 with increased algae growth?

      1. I’d say it is the sign of things passing a number of tipping points with devastating consequences for coastal ecosystems. As the Sargassum weed dies it blankets the coral reefs near shore killing them.

    2. Well, Duh!

      What I’m curious about is, what will it take for people to finally admit that we have a major ecological crisis on our hands?! It seems that every possible opportunity to change the course of history is being squandered!

      https://www.rollcall.com/news/podcasts/trump-denies-climate-change-pentagon-prepares

      Trump denies climate change as his Pentagon prepares for it
      CQ on Congress podcast, Episode 156

      In this episode of CQ on Congress, former Navy Secretary Ray Mabus says President Trump’s climate change denial risks an apocalyptic future that will stress the U.S. military. Ben Hulac, author of a forthcoming CQ magazine cover story on how climate change is affecting the Arctic, explains why that could create conflict between world powers.

      1. The concept of “ecological crisis” means nothing to some people. The idea of a sterile environment dominated by humans is a desired state for some.

  30. After watching a documentary on the SR-71 Blackbird supersonic reconnaissance plane yesterday, I got curious about the latest advances in electric powered aircraft . It appears that pretty much like the automobile industry, the light aircraft industry is ripe for disruption. I viewed the following video:

    What Powers Our New Electric Airplane? (Sun Flyer Explained)

    which led me to the company that makes the plane (now rebranded as the eFlyer) Bye Aerospace. In the video linked to above George E. Bye, CEO & Founder of Bye Aerospace was at pains to point out that the fueling cost of the eFlyer 2 was $3 per flight hour, compared to about $44 for conventional, internal combustion engine powered aircraft in the same class. That’s about a fifteen fold reduction in fueling cost and Tony Seba describes any technology facing a 10x reduction in cost as ripe for disruption. Bear in mind that the maintenance on the electric drive train is bound to be a lot lower as well.

    In the video they also discuss a four seater aircraft with a top speed of 150 knots with a four hour and twenty minute flying time giving it a range of 400 nautical miles. This is significant for areas like the Caribbean and island that are not in the middle of a huge ocean in that it could make trips between islands by plane less costly than going by boat. Add another 25% to the range and aircraft like this could make it from the northern Caribbean to mainland USA. This sort of range would also be extremely worthwhile in Europe.

    Thinking about the SR 71 Blackbird reconnaissance aircraft mentioned further up, Bye Aerospace is also working with partners to develop unmanned aerial reconnaissance aircraft. There are other players looking at developing high altitude UAVs that will stay aloft for days on end, depending primarily on solar power.

    1. Double digit sales for electric, short haul aircraft were reported at the Paris Airshow. Sounds like it’s starting.

      NAOM

  31. Money as the means to the end of Pollution?
    1) Obama printed many trillions and a lot went into overseas banks.. around 2007
    2) Trump raised rates (Fed) and brought a lot money home with tax cut consumption and Stocks (401ks) was 19K is 26K.. German deutch bank stock was 45 is 7 (broke). China Walmart on ropes with tariffs and not Walmart increases.. ‘ate it’.
    3) Japan old and broke…end stock market by their Fed buying… China imports down (Baltic index)
    4) British? Exit on hold for Germany’s who spent their funds on windmills..no return
    5) Russia? Intermediate nuclear missiles given all above hoopla.
    6) Trump? G-20… Soft Fed, lower rates, china broke… regime change inbound. Germany deutch ATM runs at Brussels out of funds to print at negative rates
    7) Bank runs…derivative trades (Deutch 50B to US?)
    8) West food gone..
    9) Population reduction seems likely.

    1. And summer has only just begun… Can’t wait to see what July and August will bring!
      How come the lack of sunspots isn’t bringing in that mini ice age like it was supposed to?!

      1. If it was unusually cold it probably wouldn’t even make the news here. Or you would tell us it’s just a random weather event that doesn’t mean anything.

        1. True Bruce.
          However, did you ever think how in a warmer world you would have many more records set for heat, and very few for cold?
          Well, So far 2019 has set 35 records for heat and 2 for cold, in the world.
          Hmmm…
          And its not just this year. This is a progressive pattern.
          If we had a year with more cold records, it would indeed be newsworthy.
          Its been a while.
          Its becoming more and more rare.
          In the last 34 years, the USA lower 48 has only had 5 years where there were more cold than heat records set. Before that time, things were pretty even for about 50 years of records back to 1920.
          So it goes.

          https://www.newscientist.com/article/2192369-so-far-2019-has-set-35-records-for-heat-and-2-for-cold/

          1. I did think of it, but then I realized as long as we’ve got a Republican president we’re protected from the climate change salesmen.

            1. Awesome! Does that Republican President also protect you from more heat waves, floods, increased storm intensity, more intense droughts, crop collapse, sea level rise, etc… etc…?! Or for that do you just call on the tooth fairy? Do Republicans not believe the insurance companies, the US military experts or numerous financial experts?! Never mind, that last question is rhetorical!

              https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/11/climate/climate-financial-market-risk.html

              WASHINGTON — A top financial regulator is opening a public effort to highlight the risk that climate change poses to the nation’s financial markets, setting up a clash with a president who has mocked global warming and whose administration has sought to suppress climate science.

              Rostin Behnam, who sits on the federal government’s five-member Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a powerful agency overseeing major financial markets including grain futures, oil trading and complex derivatives, said in an interview on Monday that the financial risks from climate change were comparable to those posed by the mortgage meltdown that triggered the 2008 financial crisis.

              “If climate change causes more volatile frequent and extreme weather events, you’re going to have a scenario where these large providers of financial products — mortgages, home insurance, pensions — cannot shift risk away from their portfolios,” he said. “It’s abundantly clear that climate change poses financial risk to the stability of the financial system.”

            2. Bruce- “as long as we’ve got a Republican president we’re protected from the climate change salesmen”

              Brilliant. I suppose you would prefer only cold record temperatures be recorded, and the rest be left off the books as ‘data missing’. That is what it sounds like to me from your statements.
              The only explanation for that kind of behavior is fear.
              Fear of reality.
              I understand that. The repercussions of acknowledging the reality of the data is extremely troubling.
              So it is.
              Easier to put your head back in the hole.

            3. I’ve seen many Drudge links showing old records are doctored to be colder. All we end up with is competing versions of the facts.

  34. ‘Hope’, writes Derrick Jensen, ‘is what keeps us chained to the system … hope is a longing for a future condition over which you have no agency; it means you are essentially powerless.’

  35. For those with interest in Pac NW weather and climate, I highly recommend the UW meterologist blog by Cliff Mass. He is pretty straight up.
    Interesting report on climate change projections for that region-
    https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/06/the-best-estimate-yet-of-impact-of.html

    For those unfamiliar, that region is projectd to be slower to change than many sites, due to its proximity to the cool ocean.
    Biggest take message is that models shown a smaller snowpack in the future.

    1. Hickory,

      Yes, smaller snowpack in the future. There may not be much change in precipitation totals, just a shift from snow to rain in the mountains.

      Snowpack melt is an important contribution to water supply in Summer and that is likely to decrease. There aren’t enough dams and reservoirs to capture the missing water volume during Fall and Winter rains so Summer water shortages are to be expected. That has happened already though not for several years.

  36. Yes thats a car charger strung across the sidewalk. Its not an unusual site around here.

  38. Some of us here may be able to same some money doing away with a land line phone, the way I will be doing within the week.

    A new local company has set up operations providing internet, from a tower on top of a nearby hill, for the same price as the local phone company’s digital service. The difference is that it’s been virtually one hundred percent reliable, for the last eight months I’ve been using it, except for two hours during an ice storm, when THEIR grid sourced juice went out. The phone company service SUCKS big time, averaging being out a couple of times a month, once for nine days in a row.

    So I’ve bought this little gizmo that plugs into the router and computer, and when my nerd buddy shows up and figures out the entirely non intuitive installation process, I will call the phone company and that very day start saving forty bucks a month on the land line.

    VoIP is the future, if you need a land line, and have or can get wireless internet, and you do not have to pay a monthly service charge or sign a contract to get it. You just buy the gizmo, and a couple of cables, and you’re up and running.

    Up until this week, I’ve been one of the millions of people who must have a land line, because cell service is iffy where I live, and shit happens, such as needing an ambulance for a ninety plus invalid family member.

    Goodbye phone company!

    I can get the OWNER of my internet company on the phone! There’s a LOT to be said for supporting small local businesses.

    1. A traditional landline (aka Plain Old Telephone Service, or POTS) was a copper circuit which was powered by the telephone company (provided by Ma Bell (AT&T) or the baby bells), not the grid. Again, it had its own independent power supply, and was more reliable than VOIP from any source. It was far better for Emergency Medical Services (aka 911).

      It’s hard to get now.

        1. When I was growing up in Brazil it cost the equivalent in today’s dollars of about
          5K to get a land line and you had to sign up and wait for between three to five years before they installed it. In the late 1990’s cell phones became available to just about everyone and today it’s smartphones with 4G and internet to many millions more subscribers. Can you imagine that access being available to all the people depending on copper wire in China, India or in most of Africa today.
          I can use my smartphone as a hotspot and get internet access on my laptop just about anywhere. Are you sure copper is such a great idea?

          1. I suppose it depends on your location. PSTN isn’t a one size fits all solution to telecommunications.
            It could also be the fact that i am stuck in the past lol

      2. Yes the old telephone copper circuity is powered by the provider, but the provider gets it’s primary power from the grid with generator and battery back up for each switch rooms.

      3. POTS out in rural areas is no longer reliable, in general terms.

        You can still get land line phones in rural Virginia if you want them, but the service is now mostly digital rather than copper.

        The cell phone revolution, combined with changes for the worse in the regulation of the business as a utility, has resulted in local phone companies basically doing as little as possible to maintain good service and good relationships with out in the boonies customers. The local phone company’s fondest hope seems to be to allowed terminate service anyplace there are only a few customers per mile of line. Half the people in my community, more or less, have switched to cell phones exclusively. The other half mostly live in dead spots, as I do.

        You can pull over and ask any phone company field tech you see working in my immediate area, served by Century Link, and he will laugh and tell you the phone company wants to just QUIT serving customers out in the boonies. It seems the phone company changes it’s name every couple of years just to escape it’s own reputation with it’s customers.

        MY land line phone has averaged being out twenty percent of the time, for the last few years. Some of my neighbors land line phones have been out EVERY TIME IT RAINS for the last four or five years. AEP, the local electric utility, has failed us an average of once or twice a year, due to various accidents such as a truck knocking down a pole, or major storms, but the outages average only a couple of hours, unless the line crews are all tied up after a hurricane.The longest one ever here at our house was less than two days. Sometimes we go two or three years without a power outage at all.

        My little nickel and dime IP provider, over the last eight months I’ve had the service, has been down less than three hours. My digital internet provided by Century Link was down THREE WEEKS STRAIGHT a few weeks prior to my finding out I could get internet via the little dish and the tower on the hill.

        Having said all this, I must admit that everybody I know in town who still has a land line is still getting good service from the phone company.
        But in town they probably average a customer per one hundred feet instead of a couple of customers per mile,as is the case in some rural areas.

  39. From the EIA’s Today in Energy:

    U.S. electricity generation from renewables surpassed coal in April

    In April 2019, U.S. monthly electricity generation from renewable sources exceeded coal-fired generation for the first time based on data in EIA’s Electric Power Monthly. Renewable sources provided 23% of total electricity generation to coal’s 20%. This outcome reflects both seasonal factors as well as long-term increases in renewable generation and decreases in coal generation. EIA includes utility-scale hydropower, wind, solar, geothermal, and biomass in its definition of renewable electricity generation.

    In the United States, overall electricity consumption is often lowest in the spring and fall months because temperatures are more moderate and electricity demand for heating and air conditioning is relatively low. Consequently, electricity generation from fuels such as natural gas, coal, and nuclear is often at its lowest point during these months as some generators undergo maintenance.

    Record generation from wind and near-record generation from solar contributed to the overall rise in renewable electricity generation this spring. Electricity generation from wind and solar has increased as more generating capacity has been installed. In 2018, about 15 gigawatts (GW) of wind and solar generating capacity came online.

    Wind generation reached a record monthly high in April 2019 of 30.2 million megawatthours (MWh). Solar generation—including utility-scale solar photovoltaics and utility-scale solar thermal—reached a record monthly high in June 2018 of 7.8 million MWh and will likely surpass that level this summer.

    Seasonal increases in hydroelectric generation also helped drive the overall increase in renewable generation. Conventional hydroelectric generation, which remains the largest source of renewable electricity in most months, totaled 25 million MWh in April. Hydroelectric generation tends to peak in the spring as melting snowpack results in increased water supply at downstream generators.

    More details will come in the report on the EPM later this week.

  40. The new GE Halide wind turbine is a monster of a thing.
    We are going to need to get maybe 80,000 of these things installed quick, out in the windiest parts of the ocean, and on land where we can.
    That is, if we want to put a dent in fossil fuel use and take up the slack from depletion. As of 2016 solar, wind geothermal comprised only 2% of global energy use, and FF’s 80%.

    1. We are going to need to get maybe 80,000 of these things installed quick, out in the windiest parts of the ocean, and on land where we can.

      Sorry! We can’t! We need to apply the precautionary principle because according to Drumphish there is a report out that suggests that something like 5% of the insect biomass that happens to migrate over land where there are German wind turbine farms, might be killed.

      Of course that doesn’t even tell us what percentage of total insect biomass is actually involved in this indiscrimate slaughter of trillions of individual insects!

      So even if 100% of the insects in the whole world traveled through wind farms that would still leave us with about a 95% survival rate, I wonder how many trillions of insects that would be? I guess we will never know because something else is killing the other 70% we have lost!

      I’m sure the wind farms out in the ocean are probably killing millions of sea birds! /sarc!

      1. Its an opportunity.
        Think of the easy biomass collection available at the base of the wind turbines.
        The drop zone could be rented out to insect carcass salvage food services.
        I can see robots with chopsticks collecting each insect right out of the air as they settle down from the splash sector.
        Yum energy snacks- Sacrificial Greenish Bars. High protein.

          1. Did you know that every night the refineries have carcass removal squads sweep the perimeter to collect the various mammals, amphibians, insects, reptiles and bird life? Thats what all those trucks are leaving at dawn.
            Too toxic to keep in the foodchain. They take it directly to dump zones in the swamps.
            true right?

  42. It’s hard not to be discouraged!

    ‘TRIPLE WHAMMY’ THREATENS UN ACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE

    “At a meeting in Bonn, Saudi Arabia has continued to object to a key IPCC scientific report that urges drastic cuts in carbon emissions. Added to that, the EU has so far failed to agree to a long term net zero emissions target. Thirdly, a draft text from the G20 summit in Japan later this week waters down commitments to tackle warming. One attendee in Bonn said that, taken together, the moves represented a fierce backlash from countries with strong fossil fuel interests.”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-48746137

    1. Seems it would be best to ignore KSA, US, Russia, and others with fossil fuel interests when putting together these commitments.

      Just add a carbon tax for any goods imported from those nations that don’t make an adequate commitment to reduce carbon emissions. One way to deal with the intransigence of morons.

  43. I know that most of the people posting here are pessimistic. Something is going to get us: ecological destruction, insufficient fuel, wars, etc.

    The US seems to be heading in the wrong direction to prepare for the future. While Trump supporters aren’t the majority, there are enough of them to keep pushing us toward what I consider self-destructive policies.

    I see the end of US global dominance. This is good at many levels, and I think China might be a better promoter of renewable energy. But on the other hand, if China ends up running the world in its model, we will have a massive surveillance state. They known how to use cyberwar to its advantage much better than we do.

    So, are you guys leaning toward seeing the dominance of the US falling apart the sooner the better, or favoring the idea that the US can be rescued from its worst impulses?

    In other words, is business-as-usual for as long as it can be maintained be better than rapid change which will likely favor China?

    1. For all it’s faults, the US has generally been more democratic and open than China. That has been changing: the current Occupant is a very visible manifestation of a serious decline in democratic government in the US, due to a long term attack by billionaires who want to be autocrats, and create submissive middle and working classes. It remains to be seen if the US immune system can reject the authoritarian infection.

      China, on the other hand, is more centralized and far less participatory in it’s government. It’s current technocratic government is pretty competent, but how long will that bit of luck last? Already the current leader is becoming more aggressive, more nationalistic, more willing to waste money on the military.

      In the long run democracies have much more potential for competence, due to a much wider range of participation in decision making.

      —————-

      The best argument FOR democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average billionaire. I’ve listened to quite a few wealthy people in unguarded moments, and their grasp of reality is…scary. The stuff on Fox News is generally consistent with what the wealthy want to believe, and so they actually believe it. It’s very, very scary.

      You can’t leave government up to oligarchs. The average voter may not know more, but at least they have some small chance at advocating for their self interest – e.g., historically the average voter is far, far less interested in sending their children off to war.

      More importantly, democracy isn’t necessarily about involving the average voter – much of the point of democracy is opening up government to a somewhat wider range of well informed circles: Non-Governmental Organizations, professionals, middle class intellectuals, etc.

      Government by a small group of people is almost always going to be badly sub-optimal.
      —
      The wealthy may be a little smarter, on average, but that doesn’t mean that they have better information & ideas; or that they have other people’s welfare in mind.

      The Bay of Pigs is a classic example: JFK was smart, born of wealth, and had a circle of smart people, and yet they failed badly due to a decision making process that was narrowly confined to a small group.

      The smartest people in the world can’t do as well as a group with a wide variety of information and backgrounds that simply has better information.

      The Koch brothers and Rupert Murdoch have done enormous damage to our democracies. They have bad ideas, and they’re determined to promote narrow interests that are harmful to the vast majority of people.

      1. I read the Best and the Brightest when it came out. I was a JFK fan and still am, but that book, as the title suggests, showed that even smart, highly educated people can make mistakes. Their hubris was a reason we got stuck in Vietnam.

        1. even smart, highly educated people can make mistakes

          They can. More importantly, they always will make mistakes, if they try to do it alone. Effective decision making requires a wide circle of participation. No one can know everything. For instance, Bill Gates may have been a good software programmer and salesman, but he’s terrible at energy policy. James Hansen is a good climatologist, but he knows very little about nuclear vs renewable energy. The list goes on…

            1. Yep.

              I still do use MS products, though often it’s on devices made by a company cofounded by Steve Jobs, a man who was a marketing genius, but who thought pancreatic cancer could be cured with a strict fruitarian diet….!

            2. Yep—
              I was at Moscone Center when Jobs introduced the iPhone-
              I wasn’t impressed– but pancreatic cancer is almost always fatal.
              Jobs was obviously right.

            3. I recall a few of these from back in my early desktop publishing days…
              .

  44. Yeah, it’s just weather but if you sell gelato (or air conditioners) your laughing.

    EUROPEAN HEATWAVE SETS NEW JUNE TEMPERATURE RECORDS

    “A heatwave affecting much of Europe is expected to intensify further with countries – including France, Spain and Switzerland – expecting temperatures above 40C (104F) later Thursday. In Spain, 11 provinces in the east and centre of the country are set to experience temperatures above 40C. In parts of the north-east, they may reach 45C on Friday. Hundreds of firefighters are battling wildfires in Catalonia, described by the regional government as some of the worst in 20 years.”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48780685

    1. Yeah, it’s just weather but if you sell gelato (or air conditioners) your laughing.

      Sure, until your grid collapses and you lose power and your AC and refrigeration shuts off!

      Anyways its too damn hot in Florida at the moment for me to worry about Europe!

  45. WTF we’ve still got 12 years to get serious about climate change action don’t we — or is it 11 years now?

    JAPAN WATERS DOWN G20 CLIMATE COMMITMENT AHEAD OF LEADERS’ SUMMIT

    “What is different from previous years is the degree to which Japan is caving in to the US,” said Luca Bergamaschi, senior associate at think-tank E3G. “To have a single G20 position [on climate] would be farcical because there is no consensus.”

    https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/06/25/japan-waters-g20-climate-commitment-ahead-leaders-summit/

    2. Climate change is doing just fine. The human race knows about it and has decided that it’s OK and is pushing forward to warm world. It’s the old “We haven’t crashed yet.” syndrome.

  46. Can board games help “save the world”?

    As I am sitting outside playing a 1930’s board game with friends I realized how great it was. From an energy standpoint, the only energetic thing was the people and they would be putting out their 100 watts anyway.
    The game used no energy, the sun provided the lighting and warmth. The game can last a lifetime or more.
    Compare the energy difference of a family playing a board game together to a TV plus a video game plus a smartphone downloading videos every day.

    I checked and it appears that the global board game market is growing at over 9 percent a year and is projected to be a 12 billion dollar business by 2023. Strangely, the board game revival is being driven by millennials in the US and card/dice games are on the rise worldwide.

  47. UN report on global warming warns of “climate apartheid” between rich and poor, published out this week.
    This will become increasingly obvious as time rolls along.

    Migrants are at risk of death.
    And its no co-incidence that Norway has the most electric vehicles/capita.
    Wealthier places will keep the AC on, and poorer ones will be struggling to get a harvest in with wet-bulb temps at critical levels.
    Wealthier places will eventually relocate uphill, and poorer ones will resort to building the stilts a little higher.

    Nationalism and Wall building is just the first phase of this problem.

  48. No shit? Where’s Javier these days? Out on the fire-lines preaching his climate change denial sermons: “It’s just the weather lads!”?

    IT’S SO HOT IN SPAIN THAT MANURE SELF-IGNITED, SPARKING A 10,000-ACRE WILDFIRE

    “Firefighters in Spain are battling a major wildfire that probably started after a heap of manure self-ignited amid the intense European heat wave. Around 10,000 acres of forest and other vegetation were affected by the blaze near Tarragona in the country’s north-east, according to the Catalan regional government. Authorities said the fire likely began when an “improperly managed” pile of manure self-combusted in the heat, causing sparks.”

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/27/world/europe-heat-wave-spain-wildfire-intl/index.html

    1. Spontaneous combustion of manure, stable litter, wet or green hay, wet grain in silo’s etc, is quite common. All that’s basically necessary for it to happen is that there be a large wet pile of the hay or wet grain or whatever , exposed to the air it just the right fashion.

    2. They said it was ‘a large mismanaged pile of manure’.
      Well, then why hasn’t the west wing gone up in flames?

  50. For what it is worth, the Arctic Sea ice extent is now following the 2012 line. If this keeps up for a couple more months the amount of heat energy going into the Arctic Ocean will have entered a new temperature realm.

    1. Cameron, you are sending mixed signals. The article you posted clearly backs extreme climate change caused by human activity while taking shots at climate change denialists such as yourself lol.

      Do you not reject human induced climate change anymore?

      It is an excellent article which makes a lot of respectable points. Thanks for posting either way.

        1. Fred, I think the NOT part should be smaller than the HOT part. Realistically speaking.

          1. LOL! There’s a reason it’s called artistic license and not empirical evidence and scientific analysis!

            Though these days it starting to be a bit difficult to distinguish one from the other… 😉
            .

    2. cameron- thanks for that article link. It is certainly worth taking the time to read. as good as anything else people have offered up here for consideration. IMO

      ‘This year, a scenario analysis backed by the former head of Australia’s military drew on the peer-reviewed scientific literature to outline a plausible business-as-usual trajectory, based on what we know about how planetary ecosystems can respond to human-induced CO2 emissions. The scenario took seriously the scientific evidence of a potential ‘hothouse’ Earth scenario. It suggested that by 2050, human societies would face “outright chaos” due to escalating climate-impacts on key ecosystems, with two billion people suffering from water scarcity and another billion requiring relocation just to survive.’

  52. https://www.theclimatemobilization.org/blog/nyc-declares-climate-emergency

    NYC Declares Climate Emergency
    “Resolved, The City Council declares a climate emergency and calls for an immediate emergency mobilization to restore a safe climate.”

    -NYC City Council, June 26, 2019

    New York City did something excellent today: the City Council told the truth about the Climate Emergency.

    Fossil Fuel companies and their billionaire owners like the Koch brothers have invested billions of dollars lying to the American people about the climate. It’s time for our elected leaders to set the record straight: This is not a “problem” that can be handled through normal politics; this is an emergency that needs a WWII-scale mobilization to eliminate and draw down emissions and reverse the 6th mass extinction of species.

    The NYC declaration includes key recognitions of the Climate Emergency and is a clear call for emergency mobilization.

    That’s nice! What’s the plan?! Can we start with putting The Koch brothers on trial for crimes against humanity?

    1. ” What’s the plan?! ” Nope, no Koch, just infrastructure and energy plans.

      The Climate Mobilization Act’s other components include a bill that orders the city to complete a study over the next two years on the feasibility of closing all 24 oil- and gas-burning power plants in city limits and replacing them with renewables and batteries. Another that establishes a renewable-energy loan program. Two more that require certain buildings to cover roofs with plants, solar panels, small wind turbines, or a mix of the three. And a final bill that tweaks the city’s building code to make it easier to build wind turbines.

      https://www.citylab.com/environment/2019/04/new-york-city-climate-mobilization-act-energy-efficient-buildings/587548/

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