The future output from the light tight oil (LTO) sector of the US oil industry is the subject of much speculation. Above I present some possible future output scenarios based on a simple model of US LTO, the scenarios are compared with the EIA’s 2017 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) reference scenario with cumulative output of 82 Gb from 2001 to 2050. The cumulative output of the model scenarios is for the same period (2001-2050). Read More
Eagle Ford output is difficult to estimate as there are 20-25 separate fields that need to be followed to get a full picture. To save time, I have used Enno Peters’ data for horizontal wells from Districts 1 to 5 in Texas from his website shaleprofile.com, he has data through June. Enno’s data is combined with the RRC data for statewide C+C output to find the percentage of Texas C+C from the Eagle Ford. This percentage is multiplied by Dean’s estimate for Texas C+C output to get the following estimate, which is compared with Enno Peters’ data. EF-EP is Enno Peter’s collection of data from the RRC, EF-DC is my estimate using the method described. Based on a May 2016 Eagle Ford estimate, I subtract 70 kb/d from the EF-DC estimate to account for non-Eagle Ford horizontal well output in Districts 1 to 5
Dean has provided his monthly update for Texas Oil and Natural Gas. The most recent month’s estimate is often volatile and may be ignored, the June and May estimates are likely pretty good (within 1% and 2%), the April 2016 estimate is likely to be robust(within 1% of the final value). The June EIA estimate is 240 kb/d lower than Dean’s estimate (about 7% too low). Read More
In this post, I will address 3 topics relating to the Northern Deepwater Gulf of Mexico –
1. Historical oil production
2. One view of the future of exploration
3. EUR ranges
I will limit my comments to oil production (not gas production). All production data is from BSEE/BOEM. The play outlines on the map are my best estimates. I will be using the BSEE definition of deepwater which includes water depths greater than 1000’. And, I will be assuming a Business As Usual future – by that I mean that fossil fuels will continue to be an important an energy source, and the world will continue to be able to afford them. Read More
This post was written by Dennis Coyne and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Ron Patterson.
I have considered an alternative way of estimating Texas oil (C+C) output using the Drilling info data provided in the EIA’s 914 monthly production reports.
The Texas estimate is a weak part of the EIA’s estimate for US C+C output. In the chart above I show the EIA’s most recent monthly estimate from the Petroleum supply monthly and compare with an alternative estimate that substitute’s my best estimate for EIA’s TX C+C estimate. The slope of the trend line needs to be multiplied by 366 to give the decline at an annual rate, for the EIA estimate it is 528 kb/d per year, and for the alternative estimate it is 364 kb/d per year. Read More