March Non-OPEC Production Slides

A post by Ovi at peakoilbarrel

Below are a number of oil (C + C ) production charts for Non-OPEC countries created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and updated to March 2020.  Information from other sources such as the OPEC and country specific sites is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction.

Near the end, there is a section comparing World oil production with World oil production W/O the US. Interestingly, World oil W/O the US peaked two years before World oil production. The last section provides a short summary of The Shift Report, where it shows the increasing difficulty oil producing countries will have in offsetting decline in old oil fields and the difficulty in getting back to pre-pandemic supply levels.

It would be appreciated if we could have some further comments on these two sections before the Covid comments start. Does the fact that world oil production W/O the US peaked two years before World oil production make it more likely that November 2018 will continue to be the date for Peak Oil? Are there any weaknesses or missing or newer information that could shift the Shift Report time frame for meeting world demand post 2025?

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US Tight Oil Estimate and Projection to Dec 2019

New tight oil estimates were recently released by the EIA. The chart below compares estimates from Dec 2018 to May 2019, where the Dec 2018 estimate is that estimate with the most recent month estimated being Dec 2018 and likewise the May 2019 estimate has May 2019 as the most recent month estimated. The May 2019 estimate is fairly close to the April 2019 estimate with a slight downward revision of the April 2019 estimate from 7399 kb/d to 7368 kb/d, March 2019 was also revised lower by 10 kb/d from 7292 kb/d to 7282 kb/d. For May 2019 the most recent estimate is 7462 kb/d and if past history repeats this estimate may be revised lower next month.

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Open Thread Petroleum, April 17, 2019

Comments related to oil and natural gas production and closely related subjects in this thread.  Thanks.

“Shale companies from Texas to North Dakota have been managing their wells to maximize short-term oil production. That has long-term consequences for the future of the American energy boom. By front-loading the wells to boost early oil output, many companies have been able to accelerate growth. But these newer wells peter out more quickly, so companies have to drill new ones sooner to sustain their production. In effect, frackers have jumped on a treadmill and ratcheted up the speed, becoming ever more dependent on new capital to keep oil production humming, even as Wall Street is becoming more skeptical of funding the industry.” Rebecca Elliot, The Wall Street Journal (4/8)

OPEC + Russia through March 2019, in thousand barrels per day.

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