World Proved Oil Reserves, Fact or Fiction

The EIA publishes Annually a list of World Proved Reserves of Crude Oil. Though all charts in this post use the EIA data, BP, the IEA and virtually every other reporting agency in the world uses basically the same data. It is my contention that this data is misleading and totally meaningless. This is especially true of OPEC Middle East Reserves. However because this data is taken as gospel by the media and perhaps 90% of energy analysts in the world, this misinformation becomes a serious problem.

But first let’s look at the data. It dates to 2014 in most cases but some data only goes to 2013. All data is billion barrels of reserves.

EIA World Proved Reserves The EIA said we had 1,646 billion barrels of proved reserves in 2013. Other agencies put that figure a bit higher but we will go with this. And just where are these reserves located?

World Oil Reserves by Reigon

Almost half of the world’s proved reserves are supposed to be located in the Middle East. Actually it would be well over 60% if it were not for the recent additions to world reserves by the Venezuela Bitumen and the Canadian Tar sands.

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OPEC MOMR October Production Data

OPEC just published their November Monthly Oil Market Report which contains crude only production data for all OPEC nations. The only big surprise was that everyone had declining production except Libya and Algeria, that is according to “secondary sources”.

OPEC Secondary Sources

I find it interesting that Venezuela has, for the last several months, refused to give OPEC their production data.

All charts below are in the charts below are in thousand barrels per day with the last data point October 2014 and is based on OPEC’s “secondary sources”. I have decided to post all OPEC charts in this post.

OPEC 12

OPEC production declined 226,000 bpd. September production was revised only slightly, up 5,000 bpd.

Algeria

Algeria has stopped their decline, temporally at least.

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The EIA’s International Energy Statistics 2

The EIA, a few days ago posted their International Energy Statistics. They publish lots of statistics here but on monthly basis I only follow their  production of world Crude Oil including Lease Condensate.

The data on all charts below is Crude + Condensate production through July 2014 and is in thousand barrels per day.

World

World C+C production was up 168,000 bpd to 77,023,000 bpd. The high, so far, was in February at 77,409,000 bpd.

Non-OPEC

Non-OPEC C+C was down 135,000 bpd from it high so far. It has been on a 9 month plateau high.

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The EIA’s International Energy Statistics

The EIA, a few days ago posted their International Energy Statistics. They publish lots of statistics here but on monthly basis I only follow their  production of world Crude Oil including Lease Condensate.

The data on all charts below is Crude + Condensate production through July 2014 and is in thousand barrels per day.

World

World C+C production was up 168,000 bpd to 77,023,000 bpd. The high, so far, was in February at 77,409,000 bpd.

Non-OPEC

Non-OPEC C+C was down 135,000 bpd from it high so far. It has been on a 9 month plateau high.

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OPEC October MOMR and other news

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report has just came out with OPEC production data for September 2014. All production numbers are in thousand barrels per day with the last data point September 2014.

OPEC 12

The August production numbers were revised down 275,000 bpd from 30,347 kbd to 30,054 kbd. Current OPEC 12 production stands at 30,474 kbd, up 402 from the revised numbers.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia’s August production numbers were revised down 202 kbd. With that revision they are down another 50 kbd in Septemer to 9,605 kbd.

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