oil production projections – Page 9

Are Non-OPEC’s Best Days in the Rear-view Mirror

05/23/202005/23/2020 Ovi 108 Comments

A post by Ovi at peakoilbarrel.

While this post updates Non-OPEC production to January 2020, we are now in late May and the direction for future production for the next few years is clear, LOWER than where it was in March 2020. OPEC, in response to the reduced worldwide demand, arranged for a production reduction through a Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) with OPEC and Non-OPEC countries. Also Canada and Norway have indicated they will be cutting production in response to world wide reduced demand. The OPEC + DoC reduction schedule and chart are shown and discussed at the end of this post.

US Production Growth Surges

01/31/202002/06/2020 Ovi 180 Comments

A Post by Ovi at peakoilbarrel

All of the oil production data for the US states comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply Monthly. In addition, information from other EIA offices is provided to project future US output. At the end, an analysis of a few different EIA reports is undertaken.

The charts below are updated to November 2019 for the 10 largest US oil producing states (>100 kb/d).

The latest data from the January EIA report shows that US production surged by 203 kb/d in November to reach a new high of 12,879 kb/d. Since June the US has increased output by an average of 164 kb/d/mth. Looking forward to December production, the January Monthly Energy Review (MER) estimates US production for December to be 12,861 kb/d, down 14 kb/d from November and shown in red as the last data point.

If the MER is correct for December at 12,861 kb/d, that means that the January 2020 STEO is too high in their output prediction. They estimate December output to be 12,967 kb/d, 106 kb/d too high.

Non-OPEC Production Growth is Struggling

01/24/202001/24/2020 Ovi 155 Comments

A Post by Ovi at peakoilbarrel.

Below are a number of oil (C + C ) production charts for Non-OPEC countries created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and updated to September 2019. Information from other sources such as the IEA and OPEC is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction.

Non-OPEC production decreased by 22 kb/d from 50,512 kb/d in August to 50,490 kb/d in September. This is another output reduction month in 2019. In 2019 there have been 5 months of decline and 4 months of increases. For comparison purposes, in 2018, there were 9 monthly increases and 3 decreases. This is just another indicator of the increasing difficulty Non-OPEC countries will have boosting output going forward, now that US production growth has started to slow.

September production is just 287 kb/d short of the previous high of 50,777 kb/d reached in December 2018. Will new output from Norway and Brazil, along with small but increasing US output coming in the next few months raise Non-OPEC output beyond the previous December 2018 high?

U.S. Oil Production Is Competing Against Decline

01/02/202001/02/2020 Ovi 254 Comments

A Post by Ovi at peakoilbarrel . com

All of the oil production data for the US states comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply Monthly. In addition, information from other EIA offices is provided to project future US output. At the end, an estimate is made for the decline rate in the L48 conventional oil fields and an analysis of a few different EIA reports is undertaken.

The charts below are updated to October 2019 for the 10 largest US oil producing states (>100 kb/d).

U.S. oil output continued to increase in October 2019. Production reached a new high of 12,655 kb/d, an increase 171 kb/d over September and 55 kb/d higher than estimated by the December Monthly Energy Review (MER). However it is 93 kb/d lower than the 12,748 kb/d estimated in the December STEO report. This could be an indication that the January STEO report will again lower US production estimates for 2020.

Is Non-OPEC Oil Production Recovering?

12/22/201912/22/2019 Ovi 240 Comments

A post by Ovi @ peakoilbarrel.

Below are a number of oil production charts for Non-OPEC countries, created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and updated to August 2019. Information from other sources such as the IEA and OPEC is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction.

Non-OPEC production increased by 752 kb/d to 50,482 kb/d in August from 49,730 kb/d in July. This is the first significant monthly increase in 2019. Output declined from January to May. The main contributor to the increase was the US by adding 599 kb/d. This leaves August production just 295 kb/d short of the previous high of 50,777 kb/d reached in December 2018. New output from Norway and Brazil, along with increasing US output coming in the next few months could raise Non-OPEC output beyond the previous December 2018 high. The question “How much higher beyond the December high” is of great interest to OPEC+.