Below are a number of oil (C + C ) production charts for Non-OPEC countries created from data provided by the EIAʼs International Energy Statistics and updated to October 2020. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Russia and Norway is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction for a few countries and the world.
Note. I have just been informed that the EIA published their November report early. Normally they post the update at the end of the month. I will update this post ASAP and publish a November one.Sorry
Below are a number of oil (C + C ) production charts for Non-OPEC countries created from data provided by the EIAʼs International Energy Statistics and updated to September 2020. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Russia and Norway is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction for a few countries.
Below are a number of oil (C + C ) production charts for Non-OPEC countries created from data provided by the EIAʼs International Energy Statistics and updated to August 2020. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Russia and Norway is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction for a few countries. Typically I collect updated country info after the 20th of the month for September and October. Since this is an early post, those have not changed from last month.
Below are a number of oil (C + C ) production charts for Non-OPEC countries created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and updated to July 2020. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Russia and Norway is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction for a few countries.
This analysis concerns C&C only. Natural gas production is low and steadily declining with few deep gas-condensate discoveries and the shallow dry gas fields at end of life. I don’t know if lack of gas may affect oil production – e.g. insufficient: flow to allow stable pipeline operation; income to be economic to warrant continuing maintenance; or fuel gas or lift gas supply to surface facilities. Any such issues could influence shutdown timing and hence the possible stranding of assets.
Top Down Production Projections
The chart above shows a Verhulst fit to GoM C&C production using seven curves, three describing shallow production and two each for deep and ultra-deep. A symmetric logistic curve is convenient for manual curve fitting as it allows a linear extrapolation to give the ultimate recovery, but most production curves are not symmetrical – usually the decline is less concave with a thicker tail, especially as the production volume and number of independent producing entities are reduced. With Excel, using least-squares optimisation fitting to any curve(s) is simple and has the benefit of allowing additional constraints to be imposed for sensitivity checks (e.g. total area, equivalent to the ultimate recovery, and position or height of peak), so more general Verhulst curves allow closer fitting.
