This is a guest post from Jean Laherrere. There are 12 graphs in this post. I have added a “continue reading” break in this post after the first three. I will do this for all long posts.
Tag: Bakken
US Crude Storage, Production and Other Peak Oil News
There has been a dearth of oil production data lately so I have been scratching to find something to post. So I have gathered this and that in hopes of making it interesting.
US stocks had the first uptick in nine weeks, gaining 990 kb. (See the slight uptick in the blue line.) But they still stand at their lowest point in 21 months.
Incidentally the EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report had US crude oil production down last week. Their estimate of production went from 8,159 kb/d to 8,052 kb/d. That was the first decline in nine weeks. Of course that is really just a guess by the EIA.
Based on the weekly US production data I have charted US production through Januay 2014. The data through November 2013 is from the EIA’s Monthly Energy Review. The data for December and January is from the Weekly Petroleum Status Report, link above. That data is through January 17th. I have estimated the rest of the month.
Update: North Dakota Bakken Data
North Dakota published their monthly report on Bakken Production and All North Dakota Prouction. Nothing to get excited about. Bakken production was up 28,285 barrels per day while all north Dakota was up 27,864 barrels per day. This means that North Dakota production outside the Bakken was down 421 bp/d.
The Director’s Cut comments on the price they are getting for Bakken Oil:
Oct Sweet Crude Price = $85.16/barrel
Nov Sweet Crude Price = $71.42/barrel
Dec Sweet Crude Price = $73.47/barrel
Today Sweet Crude Price = $71.25/barrel (all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)
Interesting that they are selling their oil at about a $21 discount to WTI about a $35 discount to Brent. More of the Director’s comments:
The drilling rig count was unchanged from Oct to Nov, but the number of well
completions dropped from 166 to 138. Days from spud to initial production remained
steady at 114. Investors remain concerned about the uncertainty surrounding federal
policies on taxation and hydraulic fracturing regulation.
We estimate that at the end of Nov there were about 510 wells waiting on completion
services, an increase of 50.
This plot is “Bakken Additional Wells” and the 12 month trailing average. As you can see the average for the last 15 months or so has been pretty flat, around 150 additional wells per month.
EIA International Energy Statistics for August and September
The EIA has finally published its International Energy Statistics. The last one had July data. This one is has two months updates, August and September. All the data I publish comes is Crude+Condensate from January 2000 through September 2013.
Again, all data is C+C in thousand barrels per day with the last data point September 2013.
As you can see from the chart World C+C production has leveled out in the last year and one half. September 2013 is slightly lower than February 2012.
There were a couple of major revisions in the July data. Canada was revised down by 269 kb/d while Non-OPEC was revised down by 228 kb/d. There were other small revisions upward. OPEC C+C had no revisions so that left World C+C for July revised down by 228 kb/d.
Both the USA and Canada are on a real tear, owing of course to Light Tight Oil and the Oil Sands. Their combined production is up about 1.9 mb/d since in one year, since last September.
GOM Production and Other News
Not much happening on the Peak Oil front these days. I checked out the BSEE Gulf of Mexico production. Data is in kb/d with the last data point September 2013.
Average production from the GOM has been relatively flat for the last two and one half years at about 1.260 million barrels per day. The arrow marks April 2010, the month of the Deepwater Horizon disaster.
The big deepwater plays continue to decline. I guess they are bringing on other wells in order to keep production flat.
The above chart is combined liquids production of Atlantis, Thunder Horse, Tahiti and Blind Faith. The last data point is September 2013.